AIA: Turbulence ahead?

[bongo66]

I read in todays Sunday Star Times that cabinet look likely to approve the second airport option, possibly as early as two weeks.

I pity those who climbed in last week at a very high SP. Could be a big knock-back tomorrow and if/when the annoucement is made.

Tamascary, the West Aucklands answer to Mao, is fully in favour of it and he is lobbying Anderton intently.

Auckland aint big enough at present for 2 airports but in the future -20-30 years- a second port will be a good asset.

Flying high, or grounded? Bongo

[belgarion]

Bongo ...

On what grounds do you base the assertion that "Auckland isn't big enough for two airports"?

Pray enlighten us. NZ, given its very remote location, needs everything possible to make rade and tourism really, really, easy.

I confess I've not studied the complete set of "ins" and "outs", but the idea that "every other big city has only one", doesn't cut it with me. What does make sense is that the big city airport are ALL seen by pundits as being 'growth limiting' factors becuase they are overloaded.

I have no problems whatsoever with people who know their business, like IFT, thinking ahead and using their own money to build another.

It is called being 'strategic'. It is word I think, that being a person that signes with the phase, "give me a long term thing, not a meaningless thing", would understand.

Strategy? The art of stuffing your opponents while they think you're being silly.

Go IFT.

[thereslifeafter87]

West Aucklands answer to Mao?

Why? because he's promoting the idea of two airports?

Isn't competition what free-market economics is all about?

Won't two airports promote competition?

[fundir]

it is an oportunity that Auckland would silly not to take if a private enterprise is willing to take all the risk.

worst case sernario, infratil loses it's money and someone else gets to use the site for another use.

Best case sernario is that competition keeps Auckland landing fees, plus other associated airport costs down for passengers and airlines and aia/infratil make resonable profits.

At the moment both Wellington/Christchurch are doing well out of AIA's suposed monopoly. Trans tasman traffic at both of these is up significantly, christchurch is getting good international traffic growth and even Wellington is starting to get more services to the pacific.

[bongo66]

Belgarion, Auckland/NZ doesnt warrant it at present. It just aint big enough for 2. End of story.

TILA47, Tamascary has some weird ass ideas about competition and business and along with Cullen has presided over a 43B $ tax grab that would have near crippled our economy had it not been for immigration, low dollar and high commodity prices.

We all know when govt gets involved in commerce things always go wrong. Im not against competition, i am one of the strongest advocates of such on this forum but true competition over Whenuapai would mean the land there would be put up for tender to the highest bidder be they an airport company or not.

We dont want stage managed competition in the form of "gifting" an airport for political reasons and its a bit disingenuous to think this lot-Labour- are for free market competition after the taxpayer bailout of AIRNZ and rail.

Spare me.

Bongo

[rmbbrave]

I very much doubt if Auckland will ever be big enough for two Airports because it may not get much bigger than it is now.

One of my interests is demography and according to www.prb.org (the best demographic site on the net) NZ's population in 2025 will be 4.7m and in 2050 it will be 5.1m. Sometime after 2050 NZ's population may even start to fall. Auckland has about 25% of NZs population and IF THE RATIO DOESN'T CHANGE Auckland's peak population will be about 1.25m people.

Incidentally, Hubbard, the cereal maker, has been arguing for a subway to serve the future Auckland's 3-4 million people showing his complete lack of understanding of Auckland's demographic future.

I think a basic understanding of demography is essential for people who trade in shares as demographics can have an important impact on some companies fortunes. Another example is Ryman which as a provider of health care for the elderly has demographic factors working in its favour for the next 10-15 years.

Thank for your posting Bongo. From what I have read it appears that the only people opposed to the second airport are those at AIA. If cabinet look likely to approve a second one it might be a good idea to sell AIA shares in the next 2 weeks.

[rmbbrave]

Here is the article from the Sunday Star Times...


Second Auckland airport likely to get Cabinet go-ahead

SUNDAY , 03 OCTOBER 2004

By HELEN BAIN
Cabinet approval looks likely for Auckland to get a second international airport at the old Whenuapai air base.

Economic Development Minister Jim Anderton will take a paper to cabinet this month, possibly as early as October 11, with recommendations on the future use of the Royal New Zealand Air Force base.

A spokesman for Anderton said he was looking at Economic Development Ministry reports with the strategic national interest and economic development in mind, suggesting Anderton is likely to back the proposal for a commercial airport.

The question of what happens to the 311ha site after the air force moves out in 2007 has been in the hands of Defence Minister Mark Burton, but the matter was handed to Anderton's office and the Economic Development Ministry, which has analysed the logistic and economic benefits of a second airport in Auckland.

A spokeswoman for Burton said he "has no view - we're done with it", indicating recommendations on the decision are now in Anderton's hands.

Waitakere MP David Cunliffe and Tamaki Makaurau MP John Tamihere, both government ministers with portfolios relating to economic development, have supported a commercial airport for Whenuapai and strenuously lobbied Anderton and Cabinet colleagues.

Cunliffe said as local MP, he conveyed the views of his electorate in favour of the airport plan, but as a member of the executive he would be bound to support any decision Cabinet made.

"I was strongly supportive of a more detailed analysis of the economics - what is the optimum use of the site - and I believe the figures should speak for themselves."

Tamihere said he could not see any argument against a commercial airport "other than the continuation of Auckland International Airport's monopoly. Everyone knows I have very strong views on this and I was quick to put my hand up. This is a make-or-break decision for the northwestern region of our biggest city. This is the last throw of the dice for Waitakere to be a viable economic entity."

Tamihere said any cost-benefit analysis would come out in favour of an airport, as no other activity would bring anything like the economic benefits and employment an airport would generate.

Under the proposal, Infratil would lease the airfield from the crown for a nominal rental and would meet the $30 million to $50 million cost of upgrading the airport for commercial use.

The plan is supported by Waitakere Mayor Bob Harvey, Auckland Mayor John Banks and the North Shore City Council, but is opposed by Manukau City Council and Auckland International Airport.

Defence Force consultations on the future of the site attracted 2208 submissions, most from nearby residents, and 75% opposed a commercial airport.

Supporters say a second airport, at Whenuapai, would bring lower airfares, make travelling to the airport more convenient for residents in the north and west of Auckland, reduce road congestion heading into Auckland International Airport, and give Waitakere a big economic and jobs boost.

Opponents say there is no need for a second commercial airport and basing one at Whenuapai would create noise nuisance and waste resources.

Harvey said losing the opportunity to develop the airport would be equivalent in economic terms to Waitakere losing a district the size of Westport, and that potential loss should not be outweighed by residents' concerns.

[duncan macgregor]

BONGO, We need an airport at whenuapai like we need a hole in the head. Planes that come in over residential areas and take off over residential areas is a stupid idea. Airports should be in a position where planes can take off into the normal prevailing wind direction of southwest and fly straight out over the ocean. The existing runways are as usefull as tits on a bull. The existing buildings will be useless. The high class housing areas will have a massive price reduction, but dont worry they wouldnt be labour supporters in any case. The price of the existing airport split up as house sections will more than finance an airport. Slightly further up the west coast on state hwy 16,a couple of farms can be bought, and a proper airport built for less than the price of whenuapai, with the rail link already in place. I wont hold my breath ignorance is bliss when the gov makes decisions. macdunk

[bongo66]

Dunk, I kind of agree. We dont need a second port now but in 30 years time we may do.

Whenuapai aint a good place...

[kura]

If Whenuapai does get approval, the threat to AIA is more perceived than actual, and one thing you can gaurantee is that market will overreact to news (Inflating IFT and reducing AIA ) Im a holder of IFT, and depending on size of the reaction Id be happy to switch my IFT into AIA, in the belief that in long term AIA wont be significantly impacted.

[Steve]

I think that you have all overlooked the fact that those people living in West Auckland could fly from Whenuapai to AIA without driving through the city, thus reducing the traffic congestion on the roads...[:o)][:o)][:o)]

It's a win-win. Auckland gets a new airport, lower trafic volumes/congestion from accross town commuters, AIA gets increased landing fees not to mention it will help with their current issue of traffic flows near the airport.[^]

[Major von Tempsky]

Auckland already has 2 airports. I well recall taking a scheduled flight from Ardmore to Paraparumu where I was due at a conference. It saved transhipping at Wellington and bags of time and was very convenient.
Naturally as an Infratil shareholder I'm all for Whenuapai as Auckland's 3rd airport, a wonderful contribution towards solving Auckland's traffic problem and so much convenience for all those people in the north and northwest.
You can't oppose it just for affecting AIA's profits. It would be a desecration to turn it into more little boxes.

THE KING says Aulkland should have a second, as in Sydney Mascot seems
to hold the talk but in the Greater Sydney area there are 4 large airports, Bankstown [very large],Richmond [RAAF] & Parramatta [Navy and private] in the outer town places Warnner Vale, Belmont and Newcastle.

So haveing two is a great asset to HAVE.. [^]

[Placebo]

Interesting discussion. Throw into the mix: AIA already has plans for future expansion (2nd runway has planning approval) and is investigating future land transport access (I note the media coverage was about building roads, didn't mention rail -- why not?). Also, and probably more significantly, AIA's balance sheet now shows higher revenue from property development than from airfield activities, and this is a trend that is set to continue. In future this will be a property company that also happens to operate an airfield, not an airport with a few properties on the side. A significant shift.

As an AIA shareholder I don't fear an imminent 2nd (or third) airport. Given the infrastructures in place, I find it hard to see existing operators moving to any new port en masse... It is a risk but IMO overstated.

[bongo66]

Placebo, supossedly the second airport would be cheaper for airlines to use and as the Airline trend is towards budget, low cost Airlines MIGHT find Whenua a magnet for such operators.

Please open packet before eating airline nuts, Bongo

[thereslifeafter87]

I disagree with the nominal lease cost.

If its worth developing as an airport, then IFT should pay market value!

Otherwise its government subsidising private individuals in business which I cannot tolerate. It just encourages inefficiencies and rent-seeking behaviour.

[Bobco]

Agree tla87
They just would not be able to get away with creating an unlevel playing field.

[thereslifeafter87]

The government would be better off giving more money to welfare recipients - they would get a better standard of living, and business would make more money from the increased spending.
(just stirring Bongo...)

If government gives the money straight to IFT (in the form of cheap rent) it is wasting an asset that could provide good returns if sold as a whole or piece by piece.

I actually agree with Bongo (OhMyGod) it should be put up for sale to the highest bidder and developed as the market dictates (with maybe provision for some public use of some areas - a park or some such thing).

[Cooper]

TLA87...I agree... then the field would be used for the purpose for which it could generate most profit... the reasoning being if someone believes they can make 10% pa on the field, they will bid above a company who believes they can make 5%, so the field will go to the company which makes the best use of it (or of course just gets their profit estimates wrong....).

[thereslifeafter87]

and if they do get their profit estimates wrong, they bear the cost.

Doing it that way will also give the government the most tax revenue as well - as theoretically whoever makes best use will make higher profits thus pay more tax, thus allow more social spending that will translate into higher living standards and higher profits.

[Cooper]

...which serves to make Bongo's lazy layabout lefty pink shirt wearing no armpit shaving commie friends just that bit more wealthy, so Bongo can have something to talk about! Huzzah! Cheers all around! :-)

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

I read in todays Sunday Star Times that cabinet look likely to approve the second airport option, possibly as early as two weeks.

I pity those who climbed in last week at a very high SP. Could be a big knock-back tomorrow and if/when the annoucement is made.



In the end the Sunday Star article hasn't had much of an effect on the share price. Just down 7 cents so far today.

[duncan macgregor]

Great trade opportunity for investors willing to take a small risk. Buy IFT which if the deal goes ahead will trend up. AIA will trend down in the short term making it oversold. Buyers and sellers always swing the pendulum to far in both directions so i can see a macdunk deal looming in the pipe line. MACDUNK

[Major von Tempsky]

Sorry, I can't follow that bit that "higher social spending translates into a higher living standards"?
Surely its the reverse i.e. higher social spending translates into lower living standards?
Presumably you mean higher social spending by the government?
i.e. inefficient low quality spending - government housing, government schools (NCEA certificates for attendance), government enabled mass switching from the unemployment benefit to the sickness benefit and the DPB (look at the figures over the last 25 years). Paid for by taxes which are a disincentive to work and produce and which lower the rate of growth.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Great trade opportunity for investors willing to take a small risk. Buy IFT which if the deal goes ahead will trend up. AIA will trend down in the short term making it oversold. Buyers and sellers always swing the pendulum to far in both directions so i can see a macdunk deal looming in the pipe line. MACDUNK


Their certainly wasn't a lot of wild pendulum swinging today AIA down 11 cents and IFT unchanged. I certainly expected more and was happy to sell my AIA shares for $7.12.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Great trade opportunity for investors willing to take a small risk. Buy IFT which if the deal goes ahead will trend up. AIA will trend down in the short term making it oversold. Buyers and sellers always swing the pendulum to far in both directions so i can see a macdunk deal looming in the pipe line. MACDUNK


Their certainly wasn't a lot of wild pendulum swinging today AIA down 11 cents and IFT unchanged. I certainly expected more and was happy to sell my AIA shares for $7.12.


Why did you sell RMBRAVE?

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87

I disagree with the nominal lease cost.

If its worth developing as an airport, then IFT should pay market value!

Otherwise its government subsidising private individuals in business which I cannot tolerate. It just encourages inefficiencies and rent-seeking behaviour.



Here here.... makes no sense to give it away

[nelehdine]

A poor move IMHO rmbbrave ....

1. Airforce wont be vacating Whenuapai till 2007 , that's 3 years away.

2. Check out the growth of Glasgow Airport since Prestwick was bgt by Infratil ... no problem for Glasgow .. if anything it has helped as the lowering of fares due to increased competition has boosted growth of the overall market

3. AIA make most of their money out of International flights ( landing charges, Duty Free shoppers and $25 departure tax ), new airport will be a small bit part player ... maybe a couple of flights a day to Sydney and Gold Coast, a drop in the ocean compared to AIA now ... let alone in another 3 years.

4. AIA at 7.15 is a great long-term buy , selling AIA shares at any point over the last 5 years has been the wrong thing to do ... nothing has changed just because of this announcement.

Disc: AIA largest share in my portfolio.

[rmbbrave]

I know AIA is a long term investment but is it a good investment for the next 2 weeks? I expect the SP to fall a little more when/if the cabinet approves the decision sometime after Oct 11. Then I would like to buy back into AIA hopefully for less than 7.12

I am still relatively new at this share buying game (2 years) and I want to see if I can make a profit on the back of these announcements.

You learn from your mistakes and from your successes and even if I lose from my decision to sell AIA I will learn something about buying and selling because of news like this.

[duncan macgregor]

RMBBRAVE, I dont expect a sudden move in the share price of AIA, only a gradual one if the second airport goes ahead. It takes time for the market to over react, and it is normal for that to happen. AIA is trending down right now, and will gather pace if the deal goes through as expected. If i was an AIA shareholder i would sell out and buy IFT, then jump back later to AIA when it becomes over sold. Time the swings mr market over reacts. It is an interesting situation logic tells me that will happen if the airport goes ahead but i am to busy playing games with PGG, NOG.pot.to be involved myself. I will trade whats left of my HQP shares and buy AIA when it is over sold. GOOD FUN GUYS EH?. macdunk
discl hold POT, PGG, NOG, HQP,

[nelehdine]

Welcome aboard PGG MacDunk ... didn't realise you were into the rural stocks ... $2 could be on the cards over the next few weeks ....

Disc: PGG holder

[duncan macgregor]

As expected AIA down 9c IFT up 5c giving a cross rate of 14c. That is only today so far. I expect this trend to continue one or both companies will be true to form. macdunk

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

A poor move IMHO rmbbrave ....

1. Airforce wont be vacating Whenuapai till 2007 , that's 3 years away.

2. Check out the growth of Glasgow Airport since Prestwick was bgt by Infratil ... no problem for Glasgow .. if anything it has helped as the lowering of fares due to increased competition has boosted growth of the overall market

3. AIA make most of their money out of International flights ( landing charges, Duty Free shoppers and $25 departure tax ), new airport will be a small bit part player ... maybe a couple of flights a day to Sydney and Gold Coast, a drop in the ocean compared to AIA now ... let alone in another 3 years.

4. AIA at 7.15 is a great long-term buy , selling AIA shares at any point over the last 5 years has been the wrong thing to do ... nothing has changed just because of this announcement.

Disc: AIA largest share in my portfolio.


I remember you giving me borax for buying the WHS Nele, so ill go easy on you this time.

2.5- 3 years aint a long time and if the 2nd port takes off it will remove the main reason the AIA company is valued as high as it is-its monopoly position.

Maybe the 2 ports will actually compliment each other so there is nothing to worry about.

It seems to me though that AIA was overvalued even before the possibility of competition.

Please put your seatback in the upright position, Bongo

[Mr_p_yu]

Good move by the government. Take it up the backside AIA! Good luck to IFT and I wish IFT can knock out AIA.

ALL AIA holders should get a reality check. AIA is only worth half the SP at the moment. Hugely overvalued.

Please position yourself for a crash landing!

[Placebo]

As an AIA holder, I've been giving this a little thought. Here's my back-of-the-envelope analysis of the issues in play:

The issue: Auckland's expanding domestic and international air traffic.
Solutions: A: Build new airport at Whenuapai (injecting competition); B: Expand existing airport at Mangere (maintaining monopoly).

Risks:
AIA: Competition could significantly weaken their market position. It could act to draw new carriers and to lure existing customers away from AIA. Competition would also limit AIA's ability to extract further value out of its on-airfield activities (i.e. landing charges, a moratorium currently in place and due to expire). Risk to AIA's expansion plans (approval granted for 2nd runway to accommodate forecast growth, would be redundant if 2nd airport established)

Whenuapai (IFT): Difficult to establish a new port. Need to attract customers (airlines) before the facility is in place (uncertainty). No skill set within IFT for establishing start-up companies (previous experience at investing in existing companies e.g. POT, Wgtn airport, TrustPower). Lack of infrastructure to support new airport. Heavy costs established with establishing new facility, potentially to run at a loss. New airport is likely to only be attractive to airlines as a low-cost option, therefore low margins are likely. Only low-cost operators (Freedom, Virgin) likely to operate from there. Opposition from locals likely to see operating curfew in place.

In addition, regardless of the outcome, AIA will continue to develop its off-airfield activities.

In my view, while there are risks to AIA, there are much greater risks to IFT in proceeding down this path. AIA will continue to be the primary entry point to NZ for international travellers. Also, its integrated international/domestic links cannot be understated.

While the market will react to this news in a negative fashion, in reality over time AIA will continue to be a growth stock (as will IFT, although it may give itself a headache if it launches into Whenuapai.

[duncan macgregor]

PLACEBO, You are making the mistake of not taking into account the market reaction. Regardless of will it make a difference or not to the bottom line of either company is not the issue which is, what will mr market get up to. Logic is not his strong point he will over react. AIA will tend to go down and IFT will tend to go up.
We are only here to make money understanding the market is more important than understanding a company. Give me a hard time if i am wrong but sell AIA and buy IFT as i told you to do earlier. Macdunk

[Placebo]

MacDunk, I am taking into account the market reaction. I agree it will act irrationally. But I think it will be a short-term reaction, a blip in the long-term uptrend.

[rmbbrave]

The Auckland Regional Council's State of the Region report issued yesterday says that, the population of the region, stretching from Rodney to Franklin is expected to reach 2 million by 2040, up from the present 1.3 million.

Does a city of 2 million really need 2 (or 3 if including Ardmore) airports?

[trendy]

RMBbrave ..the answer is no. jeez Auckland is just a town in comparison to US cities that have only ONE major commercial airport. IFT just looking for an easy dollar...and for it to be delivered on a plate.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Does a city of 2 million really need 2 (or 3 if including Ardmore) airports?


You'd think they'd be more interesting in promoting investment in other transport infrastructure.

Disc: wishful thinker + AIA holder --> like nice train & road links out to the airport they already have!

[nelehdine]

Shares back to 720 ... Whenuapai is really a storm in a teacup for AIA. Only those who don't understand the dynamics of the growth in air travel over the last few decades would have been scared out of selling their AIA shares. This could well be a really good thing for the AIA share price ... get rid of all the weak holders and give the long-term holders the chance to top-up at great value prices. IFT may well go up as well ( but Whenuapai is not guaranteed to be a financial success by any stretch of the imagination ) but AIA will certainly not be harmed to any great degree.

Imagine if IFT gave up on Whenuapai after a couple of years due to consistent losses ... the stampede back into AIA shares would be quite spectacular .....

[Mr_p_yu]

I don't think so dumb dine.

IFT will just crush AIA on every front....They will do package deals, such as give discount to planes going from Whenuapai to Wellington and charge a lot higher cost to planes going or coming from AIA to Wellington! That will cut AIA to pieces :)

Brace yourself for a AIA yelling SOS and crash landing!!!! AIA will be worth $2 in a few years time!

[nelehdine]

Great post Mr p yu ... you just stick to your PRG shares and I'll stick with my AIA shares , thanks for the sell tip but as you've been slagging AIA off for the last few years and the shareprice just keeps rising and promoting PRG as an investment and the shareprice just keeps falling I hope you dont mind if I ignore your advice.

Disc: AIA largest share in portfolio
( Fonterra shares excluded !!! )

[Mr_p_yu]

Hey dumb dine,

Fonterra......hey farmer, why don't you stop talking crap just because you have finished milking your cows for the day????

May be you should stop posting on this site and get on to milking your kids :)

Let me give you some advice:
If you are/want to be a farmer, well here is a couple of acres farm boy (middle finger)!

[nelehdine]

Those PRG shares have certainly made you very bitter Mr P yu ... I really think you should bite the bullet and sell them , they aren't good for your mental health !!!

ps. "Queen Street" farmer ... but still making stacks of money out of dairy farming !!! Sorry..

[Mr_p_yu]

No they aren't, they are a perfectly good investment once AIA crashes.

May be you should go back to attend to your cow's needs and stay of shares! Farm boy.
(Alway thought farmers are faggotty human garbage, and dumb dine is no exception).

[nelehdine]

Charming ...

[limegreen]

Did I read right that a fund has been buying up AIA (there was an ssh notice filed this morning)? That suggests that there are some still bullish about AIA's prospects.

[nelehdine]

AIA has a great future Limegreen ... you don't need a fund manager to tell you that.

[limegreen]

It also has a great past. I've been pleased to be a long term holder. I sold out at a good profit once upon a time, realised my folly, and got lucky to get back in at a similar price

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/aia.gif

[Steve]

limegreen, which TA software are you using?

[Placebo]

P Yu, neheldine; keep it coming. Best laugh of the day.:D:D

[limegreen]

Steve,
No software. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com
It lets you save up to 20 charts to reinspect each day. ASX charts are 20 min delayed. NZX prices are always a day old. I then doodle on a screen capture in paintshop. So, not very tekinogical really.
Incidentally, it almost looks like AIA broke out of a symmetrical triangle today. Or at least so my coffee grind tell me.

[Mr_p_yu]

Yeah, and a lot of funds have sold out of AIA cause they think it is too overvalued....you name it, they sold it. Simple as that. When those people walk away, you should run!

Oh yeah, dumb dine....really for next year's flood yet? I should have a word to the govt in NZ not to assist farmers and a word to the US govt to put more quotas and tariff on NZ products :)

Farm this dumb dine!

[nelehdine]

723-725 +5 ... lets stop these personal attacks Mr F yu and let the stocks do the talking.

[nelehdine]

Turbulence safely and effortlessly negotiated ..

Only clear blue sky ahead , unbuckle your seatbelt and enjoy the complimentary Moet and nibbles !!!

AIA +13 at 740 !!

[limegreen]

Would you like a nice symmetrical triangle breakout to go with your nibbles?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/aia_triangle.gif

[nelehdine]

Thanks Limegreen ... that will do nicely !!

[Lawso]

Thanks for the charts, limegreen.

quote: Posted*-*11/10/2004*:* 12:27:59 PM * * *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
It also has a great past. I've been pleased to be a long term holder. I sold out at a good profit once upon a time, realised my folly, and got lucky to get back in at a similar price.

Me too. I first bought AIA in '98 @ 180 and sold for 205 on a broker's advice :( Began buying again in '01 (@ 350). It's now my 2nd biggest holding, after CAV.

[Mr_p_yu]

Only up today because of dividends on Monday (no fundamentals) Over-rated, Over-hyped share. Way overdue for a crash!!!!

Please chuck away the ginger beer and prepare for a sucide crash landing into AIA.

Hey dumb dine, time to get up to milk the cows, faggoty farmer!

[nelehdine]

Oh dear,still not sold those PRG shares Mr F yu , every time you see AIA shares rise and PRG go nowhere it must really be another tough day at the office .... the cows are happy and producing loads of milk , thanks for asking !!

[Cooper]

Ignore him, nelehdine. No substance, and poor insults to boot... not worth replying to.

[Longtack]

Hey Mr P Yu.
Is that you posting from the cell next to mine?
Wanna be my b i t c h?[:p][:o)]

or

I believe that AIA will do well in spite of IFT's threat to its mkt as perceived by Mr P Yu. The costs of setting up another airport in Aklnd large enough to challenge AIA are prohibitive.
AIA is only $0.05 off a dbl top. Anyone getting nervous?[}:)] We shall see eh.

[Lawso]

I'm picking the V8 street race will switch from Auckland CBD to Whenuapai. And the Westies will love it so much that they'll want to keep the site for cars, not aircraft.

[Mr_p_yu]

Reply to comments from posters:

To Cooper: No substance you a*s. May be you are the one that is not worth reply to. Go f*ck your self! (Although I don't think your c*ck is long enough)

To Longtrack: May be you want to be my ***** you gay faggot. Hey, why don't you get back down and scrab the floor, lowlife. Drink my p*e, a-hole.

To dumb dine: AIA is about to crash! Better check if the milk is sour....oh year, time to milk the cows again farm boy!

May be you should take it up like a man for once.

[Mr_p_yu]

To neledine or "alias",

What I say is absolutely correct, if you don't like it, up yours!

[Longtack]

Crickey Mr P Yu or "Adaline." Wow you do over-react and you did just what I expected. Boy - have you got a dirty mouth for a little kid!!
I got what I expected.
I'm just trying to have a bit of fun on a cold ChCh day. Don't bust a gut M8 as you're setting yourself up for a heart attack. [:o)][:p]

[Toddy]

A second airport for Auckland can only be good news.
Don't think of it as head to head competition for AIA but rather an opportunity to get mum and dad New Zealander's travelling.
I don't understand what all of the moaning has been all about,I for one would love cheaper travel within New Zealand and a second airport would encourage the budget airlines.

Easy Jet and Ryan Air would not be in business if they had to fly in and out of Heathrow.

IFT have the experience to make this work, the tax payer wins as the govt will receive rent, the region wins, the customers win, jeeze, everyone wins.

Just looking at life from outside of the Bombay Hills.

[Toddy]

When is the govt decision being made public?

[kura]

Originally expected back in April, I could make a guess, but that wouldnt be any better than the media speculation that started off this topic in the first place.
Im holding IFT/IFTWB and the way I see it, bonus if it happens, but no big deal for IFT if it dosent (Just the traveling public will continue to be screwed by AIA )
PS: If I had to give odds, I would give 60% chance of getting approval from govt (RMA issues could be different though)

[Placebo]

Seemed the appropriate thread title for this news item, but I had forgotten what a dag Mr P Yu's rants were. Where'd he get to anyway?:D

Any-hoo, this from todays' news:

quote:Auckland Airport Staff To Strike
Auckland Airport
28/06/2005NewstalkZBStaff at Auckland International Airport will walk off the job on Friday for 24 hours.

Seventy-one members of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union are also imposing an indefinite ban on overtime on Wednesday.

The move follows failed pay negotiations. The EPMU is seeking a five-percent rise plus five percent over a two year term. Auckland Airport is offering six-percent in the first year, 4.7 percent and four percent in the subsequent years.

The EPMU claims the company is awash with money and can afford the rise. It says Auckland Airport has given directors a 66 percent pay rise and has increased shareholders' dividends by nearly 50 percent.

The striking staff include customer services and airfield officers.

Auckland Airport CEO Don Huse expects no impact on passenger or flight operations.

[warthog]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3399484a13,00.html
Air NZ wants its own terminal

Auckland first?

Or is this just rook to check?

disc: no AIA

[biker]

I think AIA may be heading for some sort of regulation. Huge ongoing profits from a monopoly business with a complete barrier to entry.There seems to be a constant cry for cheaper airfares and yet public silence on AIA price gouging. They are over the top in landing fees,parking fees and rent.($6 for 30mins meter parking at the International terminal.) I'm not against a competitive business making superb profits, but when there is absolutely no competition and it can simply charge the airlines and the public as much as it likes for everything,take it or leave it,something needs to be done.What an outcry when Qantas and Air NZ wanted to do a deal.
There is no,and never has been, competition for AIA. Time this monopoly had it's wings clipped.

[Placebo]

Biker I would imagine that the current round of fuel price rises will have the effect of `clipping AIA's wings' by slowing passenger numbers growth. Some airlines may even cut services if demand drops.

As a holder, I have no problem with them exercising their monopoly. But of course, there is only so far you can push until someone pushes back.

[Dazza]

please AIR can whinge all they want
with their 'oldies' as air hostesss plss...

get virgin airways here i say

AIA all da way

[Lawso]

Why the current weakness in AIA? s p is down to 186 today. The strong NZ$ should not affect the company as it does exporters. Tourism forecasts are still quite strong. AIA's monthly traffic update for October reported a 5.1% rise in international arrivals over Oct '04 and domestic movements up 4.5% for the y t d. In the '05 annual report directors forecast continued earnings and traffic growth in '05-'06, if at a somewhat lower growth rate than last year. AIA has always had a highish p/e, reflecting its quality, and the current ratio of around 21 doesn't seem excessive. So where are the negatives that seem to be scaring buyers away?

Interested to hear what others think of AIA, which has been one of my best performers. What do the techies say?

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso
What do the techies say?


AIA are a pack of bastards from my perspective. Between various CAPREC activities and share splitting, most free plotting tools are hopelessly out of their depth, as the following extremely ugly chart indicates.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/aia29nov05.gif

AIA works far better on a log scale, but the sub $1 prices firetruck with the axis. Phaedrus will doubtless be able to do a much tidier job, however, I *estimate* that AIA is getting close to a sell.

[nelehdine]

Hi Lawso,

AIA used to be by far and away my largest holding, I sold every last one a few months ago at 242 to help fund a house purchase. I sold one of my investment properties today ( yields on commercial properties keep falling while interest rates keep rising so great time to cash up at present, I see you sold your KIP at 130 yesterday, well held for the last few years !! ). I have just bgt back 1/3rd of my original holding at 183 so am extremely pleased with the way things have turned out. I will buy back the other 2/3rds over the next few weeks and propbably a few more as well. On the sell-off .... infrastructure stocks are treading water at present, bond yields are rising and the relative high yields are looking not so attractive. I love buying counter cyclically so this is a great opportunity at present, AIA is still a growth business and is run by very shareholder friendly management. I am also buying utility stocks in Oz at present taking advantage of the 95c cross rate ... Bab****& Brown Wind Partners, Alinta Infrastructure, Macq Airports and Macq Communications. Aiming to create a $500wk income stream over the next few months from the commercial property sale proceeds. Still holding CAV's ?? OUCH !!, glad I bailed on that one at 500, 440 and even 385 !!

[grumpy]

Got a letter today from AIA that they will stop further buybacks until after the Feb 06 interim result is announced.,
No explanation is given for this.
The letter carries yesterday's date.
The sellers obviously had prior knowledge of this....[V][V]

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by grumpy

Got a letter today from AIA that they will stop further buybacks until after the Feb 06 interim result is announced.,
No explanation is given for this.

Maybe they expect the shares to be cheaper then...[:0]

[craic]

Bird Flu. People do not invest in airports that might get into trouble in a bird Flu epedemic. Imagine someone suggests health problem in sheep and cattle that MIGHT morph into foot and mouth? You would have investors running " for the lick of their lifes" as my old aunt would have said. It does not take much to depress any share on the NZX.

[grumpy]

Well, I called investor relations and the reason given for temporarily suspending the buyback is that the company is observing a quiet period before the end of the quarter.
Since they have inside knowledge about the results they don't want to e seen to take advantage of it and abstein from the market until the results are announced.
FWIW

[craic]

Sounds very good. Looks like they are saying that the info they have will bump the price up so to continue buying on the current low would be insider trading?

[Lawso]

Nelehdine posted:

quote: Still holding CAV's ?? OUCH !!, glad I bailed on that one at 500, 440 and even 385 !!
No comment [B)]
I did sell down some, but not enough @540 and then @394

[D_Pick]

I'm thinking the opposite, if the expected earnings outlook is improving for AIA then why isn't the buyback program continuing at these relatively low prices?

Surely that would be in the best interests of shareholders. To pay the lowest average price for the target percentage (1.9% of shares on issue) they want to buyback.

[grumpy]

My understanding is that a 'quiet period' means not to do anything in the market, either way.
The investor relations guy actually agreed that at current prices they should buy as much as they could to get the most shares for the 53mil they have set aside for the program, but the quiet period prevented them from doing so.

[Placebo]

Grumpy I also received an AIA letter. It seemed to me to simply be stating that the share buyback programme they had said they were going to do, had been completed.

Didn't seem to be anything out of the ordinary or sinister to me.

Then again, I may be wrong....

Naaaaaah!

[grumpy]

Well, they have spent only 10% of the money allocated for the buyback so far. I suppose the other 90% will have to be done in the second half of the financial year.

[StainlessSteelRat]

Interesting (disappointing) result. It looks as if even the directors have been forced to admit that it's been hot air for the last period. Short term gain (special dividend) at the expense of long term planning.

So now at a time when they should be looking to expand, they are having to defer until they can get their debt under control. Perhaps Buffett was right all along.

[Placebo]

SSR the result reflects decline in passenger movements internatinally and was anticipated (note lack of share price movement). IFT reported declined numbers at Wellington too (mainly international, domestic traffic seems to be holding up). Wellington blamed the high dollar, think AIA may be in the same boat.

I have to agree though, was a very odd decision to borrow to pay a special divvy. An unnecessary piece of bribery. Especially at a time when they face significant capital projects in foreseeable future (2nd runway, upgrade for larger jets, domestic terminal expansion) and should probably be keeping some of the surplus for capital works.

[belgarion]

PE sitting 17 ... Growth only just positive ... Run for the hills! ;)

(Unless you bought at IPO and are sitting on a great yeild ... and then perhaps you should sell and come back in around $1.10 [}:)]).

[Footsie]

Agree unfortunately i think AIA is going to weaken

still just provides the punters with a good opportunity to enter a quality stock

[Base Trader]

Expect re-rating on growth outlook but to be tempered by general movement to defensive stocks. Price may fall but I do not see wholesale selling.

I would get out now if your horizon is less than 6 months.

[BRICKS]

AIA is NO different BIZ in NZ limited by the size of the country there has been much to fancy accounting and its looked good in the past but now cumming to and END when they calm down and act grown up people and at last feel mortal return to real figures all will be better,, Basic a good company and the one to watch as the price will show and always is a BUY all needed is just you have to RATE it yourself.. [8D]

[Placebo]

Err, can someone translate the above, please?

[TerryA]

Placebo,

The King's words should never be translated lest he be seen to be speaking nonsense, it's a bit like the Emperor's clothes. Anyone who does so will stand accused of lese Majesty and suffer a horrible fate, probably between two bricks.

Best wishes,

[Paper Tiger]

Well I believe I recognise the hieroglyphic at the end. I have seen it on the Telly Tubbies. So I presume that this is baby talk?

[Skol]

Turn Whenuapai into a regional airfield I say, then watch AIA's share price. It's a goer all right, all we need is the politicians with the cajones to give the go ahead.

[Skol]

The way I see it it's like this if Whenuapai is transformed into a regional airfield:

WINNERS:
The travelling public
Anyone living north or west of the harbour bridge
The airlines
The Government
The RNZAF
Infratil
Waitakere City
North Shore City

LOSERS:

AIA Ltd

[Sideshow Bob]

quote: Originally posted by PT:

Well I believe I recognise the hieroglyphic at the end. I have seen it on the Telly Tubbies.

Are they regular viewing for Tigers??

[Placebo]

Here's a clue about where Bricks gets his wisdom from:

quote:"If a good man comes to me, and says thank you David, for the opportunity and continued support in the work-related arena, but I’ve done that, I wanna better myself, I wanna move on, then I can make that dream come true, to, AKA, for you.”
- David Brent

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Here's a clue about where Bricks gets his wisdom from:

quote:"If a good man comes to me, and says thank you David, for the opportunity and continued support in the work-related arena, but I’ve done that, I wanna better myself, I wanna move on, then I can make that dream come true, to, AKA, for you.”
- David Brent



BRICKS says can you translate that,, THANKS for saying BRICKS has more WISDOM than Placebo and/or any KIWI.. [8D]

[duncan macgregor]

[/quote]

BRICKS says can you translate that,, THANKS for saying BRICKS has more WISDOM than Placebo and/or any KIWI.. [8D]
[/quote]
I dont think KIWIS are thick as bricks BRICK. Then you would have to be one to know for sure. This is Macdunk throwing bricks at the brick who obviousely is an horstralian. macdunk

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor




BRICKS says can you translate that,, THANKS for saying BRICKS has more WISDOM than Placebo and/or any KIWI.. [8D]
[/quote]
I dont think KIWIS are thick as bricks BRICK. Then you would have to be one to know for sure. This is Macdunk throwing bricks at the brick who obviousely is an horstralian. macdunk
[/quote]

BRICKS thinks your a thick Scot person TOO..[8D] but who cares.. [8D]