Gold. Where to from here...

[draffthorse]

Have been browsing through ‘some’ of the smaller gold stocks and I see many are forming a wedge awaiting a breakout.

For example AGM, AOO, BSG, BRW, CKG, CUL, DYL, GTM, GDN, INL, LEG, MIC, PNA, PSV, PIL, RSN.

GCR continues to channel nicely.

LHG channeling down, broken through primary trend line, next support $1.10

OXR broken through primary trend line, next support .75c

There is talk of the resurrection of the Gold Dinar as the official Islamic currency - remains to be seen if it will get of the ground. The EURO appears to be somewhat on shaky grounds, while the US dollar looks as if it is headed for judgment day. All goes well for the POG.

US options doing nicely.

Cheers

Drafthorse

It is the “love” of money that is the root of all evil.

[The P.O.D.]

I have been following SMO for a while now and it has risen substancially.

They have a few gold prospects and also existing production. Worth a look.

[draffthorse]

Thanks POD

Missed SMO

Cheers

Drafthorse

[tracker]

any thoughts on gold atmnow back below 400
arco?? thoughts
tracker

[willy_wonker]

Any graph analyst can give us a view on the gold price?

[nelehdine]

Gold stocks getting absolutely "trashed" in NY this morning ... Newmont and Goldcorp both down over 5pct. Dollar on a major rally and the physical stuff struugling at $395. All signals point to continuing weakness in Gold. IMHO this will be a great buying opp soon. Gold stocks currently make up 5pct of my portfolio .. will be looking to double this should the shares of my favoured 3 ( KCN,NCM and NEM ) fall by 10-15pct. Still very bullish on gold long term as the dollar still has seemingly unsurmountable problems ( twin deficits ) before it can stop its long-term decline.

[arco]

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=2012&T_ARID=2027

[draffthorse]

Want to know where the Dollar is headed?

Have a read of

[draffthorse]

Want to know where the Dollar is headed?

Have a read of THE DOLLAR CRISES by Richard Duncan. Its a fascinating study of history in the making.

All goes well for precious metals.

Gold & Silver bullish!

[willy_wonker]

Can someone analyse this gold chart for me? Maybe time to buy gold?

http://www.tfc-charts2.w2d.com/charts/GDW.GIF

[nelehdine]

Down another $5 to $390 ... off a cool $35 from recent peak less than 2 weeks ago. Gold shares in Aussie will be under further pressure today ... chequebook at the ready soon !!

[MPC]

Same here Nelehdine, I am keeping a close eye on OXR, down to 89 at the moment. Sold some at 1.00 the other week and they have been up and down for a while with the gold price as they are mainly unhedged. Do you expect the price to rise again in the very near future?

[bull....]

Hasnt fallen as much as silver but then didnt rise as quickly either still in a uptrend.

[willy_wonker]

Will gold benefit if there is a market crash? Would gold prices go up if there is uncertainty in the market place?

[Cooper]

Using my poor Macro skills I would assume so (hold GCR an TRO) my reasoning being that gold would be perceived as safer than other investment options in an unstable/risky market and the expected fall in gold stock prices should be outweighed as investors buy into gold as a stable factor and therefore place demand on the miners through a higher gold price, which makes mining more feasible... please feel free to correct any mistakes I've made, but that's the view I'm taking

[Cooper]

Sorry...I meant expected fall in gold stocks as a result of reduced market confidence in the stockmarkets... need to read my own typing

[MPC]

Well I bought a large packet of OXR (large for me) at 89 so come on gold.

[Cooper]

Just bought some more GCR at 6 cents... like the company and the drop in price recently seems (in my opinion) due strictly to the USD/Gold rate... everyone I talk to seems to have a fairly bullish view on gold...

[Gofish.]

Jim Sinclair draws a line....

Monday, April 26, 2004, 6:06:00 PM EST Gold Market Summary Author: Jim Sinclair

One for Jim, none for COT. Come on you COT guys/gals is that the best you can throw at the gold market? Think about it. Here is your chance to shut me up or maybe go broke trying.

I am the open interest on the long side of August gold strike 430 calls so here is the target. All or nothing is the wager. So all you bears take your best shot and stop the war of "Weenies" fought with words. You write'em, I buy'em. How about you Andy? How about you Bob? You have always wanted a piece of me so here it is. Take all of me, please. Only one of us will be the BULLDOZER and the other will be the PAVEMENT. You want a reality show? Then try this one. How about all you so-called gold analysts, who spend your time calling a top for gold and have badmouthed gold shares from $342 all the way to $433, entering the fray. If gold takes out $480, are you willing to return the balance of your subscribers' money and quit the business? If you aren't, then you are just another member of the oldest profession in human history. I absolutely mean what I say. Why would I want to have a web site that did not help people? I win or I close down this web site and cease publication of any kind. Gold takes out $480 or it takes me out. I love the game and the risk. Life without risk to me is wasted. Security is an illusion. The only sin is to lack courage. The only virtue is to have it . Courage does not mean being without fear. Courage means being afraid sometimes but acting anyway. You write'em and I buy'em! Now for you odds guys, what am I a shoe-in or a long shot?

[Cooper]

Mummy why is that man so angry?
Good to hear a commentator putting it out there though (so to speak). I'm not an expert, but here's how I see it... I think it all depends on whether gold is correlated with the US$... ie when the US$ is weak Gold is turned to as the substitute. Could be, but then why has the Euro appreciated so dramatically (perhaps viewed as a safer alternative to the US at the mo)? The price of oil has also climbed... maybe people are wary of the Stock markets (bonds had their time in the sun in the US not so long ago, investors trying to go for "safety first"). Maybe Gold is the preferred market because of the perceived risk inherrent in the US stock market (ie assuming investors see the current financial position in the US as a threat to the Markets) W. Buffett has said he believes there are no value stocks (paraphrasing) in the US at the moment. P/e's are still relatively high there, people are looking for a safe option to invest in. What other options are there for investors in terms of markets? European markets are fairly somber, asian markets... japan might be recovering, but they've had false starts before. China is booming but there are doubts as to the stability/infrastructure. India is looking to take off but, again, infrastructure and the possibility of religious (hindu/muslim) upheaval looms (+ the pakistan question, despite present progress). US looks like they've bitten off more than they can chew in Afghanistan, Iraq and now possibly Israel. Really, Gold looks a very viable option given the fact that there is a tremendous amount of risk out there and there seems to be very little in the way of alternatives...
Please pick this diatribe to pieces... I have been putting it together while I go along but that's my (uneducated) view on the beauty of gold (stock) investment.

[Gofish.]

Jim Sinclair is on a mission. The recent drop in POG among other things stressed him out a bit.
He doesn't need the money, he already owns his own gold mine.

[tracker]

gold took a pasting last night, far too erratic for my liking
There used to be a lovely correllation between us market/gold, seems to hav been blown out of window lol
any techie thoughts
tracker

[willy_wonker]

OUCH !!

I am too scare to go near gold stocks. Would like graph experts for advice. China want to curb inflation, thus sending commodities tumbling.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/28/markets/metals.reut/index.htm

[Cooper]

Is China's desire to slow their economy going to impact so much on gold? Are there many industrial uses for gold that would mean a slump in China demand would lead to a slump in Gold demand?

[willy_wonker]

I am no gold expert, but this is how I see it.

The combination of investors selling out of gold back into US$ and the Chinese economy slowing will have an impact on gold. Gold is a luxury item as well as an investment which will get hit first if the economy slows.

[Cooper]

So theoretically Gold investors are praying for the Fed to keep rates as they are?

[Cooper]

I'm quite heavily involved in Gold (GCR.AX, TRO.AX) and have spent the day thinking/reading looking for reasons to sell out. Can find a few but the general view I get is that it's going to get better. Buckled up, waiting for the roller coaster....

[nelehdine]

Agree Cooper, this is a buying opportunity ... the dollars problems haven't gone away overnight and gold is a great way to play a weak USD. Have bgt some more Newcrest and Kingsgate ( dn 10% today alone !!! ) to take my gold portfolio towards 12pct of my total equity holdings. KCN at 335 is ridiculously cheap at 335 ... yield is over 6pct !!!

[willy_wonker]

Gold bounced $1.20 today, Welldone :).

I am also keeping a close eye on gold.
Have not got the courage yet.

[Sharpie]

Opened at $3.40 this morning after gold had a good night.

Bring on the Bling!!!

[GB]

bottom of 365 - is poss - i am bottom fishing here and agree with nellie that it is time to start buying again

[tracker]

lhg holders sure are sitting a little close to that bonfire by the looks of things
trade well
stop loss as always
tracker

[nelehdine]

Agree tracker , LHG at 98c must really be hurting some people. As a proxy for Gold I think there are better co's to invest in. No secret I think KCN is a far better co. than LHG but below $1 you'd have to think Rio Tinto must be thinking about taking the thing over and sorting out the management and mine once and for all. Too many other issues with LHG for it to be a big part of any decent gold stock portfolio.

Disc: Ex LHG holder ( sold at 142 and they were 170 a few weeks later ... not so sorry now !! )

[tracker]

seems that the golds are factoring some more falls in the price with most golds closing near lows
i guess we shall see tonight
alpha (one of the best tech guys around ) has been calling oxr to 70 cents since they where like a buck, not too shabby a call
interesting times ahead
trade well
stop loss as alwyas
tracker

[tracker]

definately due for a bounce, I think 1 bad night on the dow should do it, interesting buying in lhg at 8 around 3pm, might do it tonight, and as I said is due
oxr look like they might hold 80,
thoughts??
trade well
tracker

[tracker]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
nice rise in gold
up 4.90 as we speak tp 392 us
interesting times
tracker

[Cooper]

Just put in a buy order for a few more GCR. Anyone willing to pick the start of the phoenix-like rise for gold? (Fingers crossed, tongue in cheek)

[nelehdine]

Very strong move Tracker ... Newmont ( the biggest gold co. ) up 4pct in NY o/n .... recent sell-off seemed to have no real conviction. China is not really an issue for Au. Dollar looking a bit tired and I'm picking we will be back over $400 by the middle of the month. Some great buys in the Aussies at the moment. Newcrest at 11.32 looks like it's ripe for a big move up after falling from recent high of almost $13 ... has a tremendous production growth profile for the next few years.

Disc: Hold 1045 NCM ( doubled holding on Monday at $11.27 )

[nelehdine]

NCM +31 to 1163 ... nice move but plenty more to go.

[Revhead]

Hi Track..

As you say nice rise in gold overnight. OXR up five cents at the moment but doesn't look very strong, so may give some of that rise back as the day progresses - but it's a step in the right direction. If gold holds or goes a bit further then OXR (and other gold stocks) will rise quickly with it.

Theres plenty of bargains around at the moment with resource stocks. But it does take some courage and conviction to buy when they are well down from recent highs, and others are dumping.

IGO, RSN, SIB, KCN, TYC etc just a few well down from recent highs. When gold/copper/niclel jump, they will jump too. But you have to be onboard first!!

RNG at 24c, OXR in low 80's are good buys in my opinion. and don't forget PNA at 17.5c - recent broker reports have it valued at 42c and that doesn't include the anticipated resource upgrade due out in the very near future.

Rev

[nelehdine]

Glad to see the stocks not absolutely "tearing away" Rev ... a bit of healthy sceptism is always useful to make the rally stronger when the physical stuff does regain its momentum above $400. Will check out PNA .. thanks for the nod.

[nelehdine]

Mincor below 70c are tempting as well ....

[Revhead]

Nelehdine,

If you want some daily encouragement on gold then visit this site each morning. One of my first ports of call each day.

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

Jim Sinclair posts a running commentary on gold each night (US time), so the latest writings are there first thing each day nz time.

cheers
Rev

[tracker]

mcr yes traded 68-71 nice just wish i had the guts to buy 65 when it was there,
i think it has more to come
tracker

[clearasmud]

Nele,tracker
Just bgt 18000 MCR as a LT inv.Also like the look of KCN as a medium term inv.Got 3500 @3.39.Go gold!
Thanks Nele

[tracker]

gold does imo not look healthy at all
yes it will rally and have spikes, but it doesnt seem to be "jelling" as it should.The old correlations no longer exist, and i would be comfy being short golds rather than long at least for the moment
trade well
tracker

[Bobco]

Revhead
Have just been to JS site you mention, could you please comment on his opinions/track record. I went back a bit but you could save me a lot of reading time.
TIA
bobco-into the goldies

[draffthorse]

Hi Tracker

The way I see it is the market makers are the ones pushing the price down giving the big boys the chance to shift from the short to the long side.

I fail to see how the fundamentals have changed.

I remain long on gold and silver.

Drafthorse

[Revhead]

hells bells tracker - get some soap and wash your mouth out!!

[arco]

From a charting perspective is still looks OK.
Currently the action is still in the
uptrend channel and sitting on Fibonacchi
support area.

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by draffthorse


I fail to see how the fundamentals have changed.



That's a joke, right?? Take a look at USD over the last few weeks.

[tracker]

lol rev I hope (for all those long in gold stocks etc ) that i am wrong, good trading if nothing else
trade well
tracekr
p.s where is everyone

[draffthorse]

Hi Capitalist

Agree, the Dollar has rallied over the past few weeks but has that changed the fundamentals?

The USD is in a trading channel, flying two flags,- down,down,down under a mountain of debt that not even an experienced climber could hope to clamber over.... now that would have to be bearish!!!

Drafthorse

[GB]

drafty - dont get alll logical you naughty boy

[draffthorse]

Sorry!!!

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by GB

bottom of 365 - is poss - i am bottom fishing here and agree with nellie that it is time to start buying again


Hey GB....All you ever seem to come up with after bottom fishing is a stinking gummy in your mouth

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

POG...$4.50 by end of 03...you bet ya boots on it[:p]:D:D:D

[nelehdine]

Dn $8.50 to below $380 .... Ugly !!!! Will be plenty of red ink on the Aussies on Monday.

[Capitalist]

288,000 Jobs Created in April; Over 600,000 in 60 Days
Over One Million Jobs in Past 8 Months

In related news,
Demand For Gold-Plated Diapers Surges, Sending Prices Skyrocketing

Keep trying Deadhorse. You must be living in a cave if you think fundamentals haven't changed. Anymore <s>logical</s> hootingly risible predictions??

[Average Punter]

good on you Cap, yet another one of your more constructive responses - NOT.

It's truly sad that we have to put up with your endless nonsensical, sarcastic crap....... I ‘m often tempted to reply to your incessant stream of gibberish rubbish, but I would never want to lower myself to the subterranean depths that you dwell in……

Sad. You are very sad individual with obvious personality deficiencies that require professional help.




AP

[Revhead]

Couldn't agree with you more AP!!

No doubt you, and now me, will be told to get a life - the standard response when someone is criticised. I could go on, but also like you, I simply can't be bothered.

Rev

[Burgerbun]

REV...not like you to bother...so?

Why the hell did you?

[tracker]

nel
me thinks you are right lol
trade well
tracker

[tracker]

oxr 70 looks to be the mark for a bounce
(thanks alpha for that)
not too bad a call from the guy as they where like 95 when he made the call
trade well
tracker

[Cooper]

Gold stocks are sinking lower by the day... anyone want to estimate the end of the downtrend? Am buying into GCR everytime it drops to the next full cent (5 cents today) but starting to think I would like to stop buying for the mo!

[arco]

Still within the uptrend line on both the daily and the weekly and currently in an area of Fib support.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/050704.gif

[tracker]

at what figure arco would you put the gold price for it to have broken support,your $10.00 increments are a little too loose to be able to be acurate (at least from what i can see)
trade well
oh yeah hi
tracker

[tracker]

well not looking that happy atm, sorry guys, as I said much happier being short golds than being long
tracker

[Gofish.]

Hmmmm. Have just been away from the computer for a week. Think i'd better go away for a month.
And 70c forecast for the bounce on the OX - well below the recent rights price of 80c - ouch.
I'd call it a good opportunity for anyone that had spare cash.

[tracker]

wasnt my call, most of the accurate techie stuff comes from alpha, and let me tell ya he makes good calls.I mean who would have shorted lhg at 120, thinking it had 83 cents on it,(not me too scared), or ox at like 95 with a call of 70, not too shabby at all
Arco if around, could you please answer above post, as the graph is just too vague(read I am looking to closely)
trade well
tracker
stop loss as always

[Cooper]

I have noticed that the pro-gold commentator Jim Sinclair (recommended by someone on this site) has switched his rhetoric from extremely assured to an attempt to convince ( www.jsmineset.com ). A little worrying 'cos I'm heavy on gold but he makes some sound arguments for a high POG.

[arco]

Tracks - a close below 370.40 and the channel uptrend line would make me look again.

Other than that I remain bullish long term and believe we are placed well for a posible reversal very shortly. It's always darkest just before the dawn!

One has to remember gold has had a strong move up, and major corrections are to be expected.

[tracker]

nice bounce in gold last night BUT far too volattile atm to make any longer term calls on gold.As stated previously I am happier to look at being short gold than long, any techie thoughts out there regarding the gold price????
arcos chart works in $10 increments, and i think a tighter chart needs to be looked at.
trade well
stop loss as always
tracker

[arco]

Tracks
Read the post above your last one.
I will try to post a more detailed chart later if I have time.

[tracker]

ta arco. so as long as holding above the 70 mark it is still within upward channel, and holding the longer term upward trend
thanks for that, a chart would be great.
we seem to have crossed messages
be well
tracker

[clearasmud]

Wonder if the so called gold bull market is just a mirage.I note that in NZ/Au/euro terms it has moved little.
Therefore gold is just reflecting its underlying commodity fundermentals

[JBmurc]

:Dwhats going on with OGD in the nzx it looks very bullish but in the asx very weak at current depths -also see today AGG has increased
in the US 5%-many tipping a new stronger bull trend - fingers crossed for this investor-;)
-holds-wsa-ogd-ttr-in asx gold portfilo

[Cooper]

Good little jump in my GCR shares today... how are the other goldies out there doing?

[clearasmud]

gold must be due for a spike.KCN up about 8c to 3.43