PGL Progen Industries

[stolwyk]

Website: http://www.progen.com.au/

BigChart: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3APGL&time=&freq=

Shares: 33.9 mill; price $1.63. Options: 4.2 mill to convert to shares by payment of $2.50 on 31 May 2005; code PGLO. Another 0.92 mill unlisted options. Cash: $16 mill. on Nov. 11, 2003.

PGLAF is the Nasdaq code.


1. DRUG PI-88
Oct 3, 2000: Commences New Human Trials:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=136866

Nov. 23, 2000: US Patent granted for Anti-cancer/Anti-thrombotic Drug:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=137957

Febr.2, 2001:Clears first clinical trial hurdle with concl of PI Phase 1b--Preparing for Phase II:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=138995

March 26, 2001: Launch of inflammatory disease research program:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=139826

April 11, 2001: Alliance Partner to Conduct Indep. Phase 1b Clinical Trial:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=140084

June 6: US Patent granted for gene encoding Heparanase enzyme:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=140838

Aug 2, 2001: 1st US Clinical trial with anti-cancer drug PI-88 commences (Advanced Melanoma):
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=141718

Aug. 13, 2001: Complementary US Patent Granted for Progen`s Lead Drug PI-88:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=141893

Nov. 20, 2001: PI-88 a potential leukaemia drug:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=143774

Jan. 22, 2002: Australia, start of Phase II clinical trial (Mult. Myeloma)
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=144843

June 5, 2002: Combination trial ( PI-88 + Taxotere), Phase I, to start in the US in July (Melanoma):
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=146912

July 9, 2002: PGL has reached a significant milestone in its program to develop novel drugs to inhibit the enzyme heparanase.
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=147368

Nov. 25, 2002: Encouraging Human Trial Data from Progen`s PI-88 (Prel. data from Phase I/II , Melanoma and Renal-cell Carcinoma) presented in the US:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=149993

May 7, 2003: Additional Results Support Cancer Trials Strategy-Three clinical trials investigating the therapeutic effect of PI-88 on solid tumours including melanoma, lung and liver cancers are underway:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=152738

IMPORTANT: June 4, 2003: Recent International Clinical Results Validate PGL's Strategy:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=153158

July 8, 2003: Achieves efficacy endpoint in Phase II Multiple Myeloma Trial (Australia):
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=153679

Sept. 30, 2003: Progen's PI-88 Presented at US Antiangiogenesis Conference:

“Progen’s lead drug candidate PI-88 also targets VEGF along with other cancer-related growth factors such as b-FGF as well as heparanase, a degrading enzyme associated with angiogenesis and metastasis.”
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=155338

Oct. 29, 2003: Granted Anti-Angiogenesis Antibody Patent:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=156132

Jan. 21, 2004: PI-88 Melanoma Phase II trial commenced-Joint Australia and US.
" Rob Don, Progen’s VP of R&D commented “PI-88 has been well tolerated by patients in the Phase I trial.

We have also seen positive signs that PI-88 has retarded tumor growth in over 40% of the melanoma patients for periods lasting up to 30 months.

This Phase II clinical trial in advanced melanoma patients is the first of three new PI-88 Phase II trials that will be initiated in the near future":

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PGL&E=ASX&N=157916

"Melanoma is the number one cause of cancer death in women aged 25 to 30. For more information on melanoma please visit: http://www.nci.nih.gov/cancer_information/cancer_type/melanoma


2. DRUG PI-166:
Sept 18, 2002: PI-16

[stolwyk]

A more comprehensive look at PGL's lead drug PI-88:

Refer to the "Cancer dictionary": http://www.cancersource.com/Resources/glossary/index.cfm?DiseaseID=14

The cancers Melanoma, Myeloma an Leukemia can be found here.

The Anti-Angiogenic drug PI-88 is being used in a number of trials. The Phase II trial (Melanoma + Taxotere) has just begun while the drug achieved efficacy endpoint in Phase II Multiple Myeloma ( Refer to the first post of this thread). A reference was also made to PI-88 being a potential leukaemia drug.

These diseases are being feared : Melanoma can travel to other sites of the body (metastasis) and is #1 cause of death in women, aged 25 to 30.

1. Melanoma
When Phase II Melanoma trial was started on Jan. 21, 2004, the following statement was made: "Rob Don, Progen’s VP of R&D commented “PI-88 has been well tolerated by patients in the Phase I trial.

We have also seen positive signs that PI-88 has retarded tumor growth in over 40% of the melanoma patients for periods lasting up to 30 months.

These are particularly encouraging data, as all patients in this trial have advanced cancers, have previously failed to respond to standard surgical, radiation and chemotherapeutic regimens, and they have limited treatment options left available to them.”

2. Myeloma
Myeloma is a cancer arising in the plasma cells in the BONE MARROW. The deathtoll can be high.

July 8, 2003: Progen Industries Ltd (ASX: PGL, Nasdaq: PGLAF) announces the completion of the PI-88 Phase II trial in Multiple Myeloma and achievement of the study’s primary efficacy endpoints.

"The primary endpoint of the study was to investigate clinical efficacy in patients who had exhausted other treatment options.

For the purposes of this study, a clinical response was pre-specified as patients remaining stable or experiencing a decrease in blood levels of paraprotein (a marker of multiple myeloma disease severity). This endpoint was achieved in 39% of patients in the study".

3. Summary of achievements.
Some diseases are very difficult to treat and the primary objective is to lengthen the life span. Any extension of 3 months or more may be deemed highly significant by the FDA.

Patients taking part tend to be "end-stage" patients who may consider this drug as a last resort. Results sofar do show that PI-88 is very promising IMHO.
_________________________________

Here is a summary of what PI-88 does-Reference PGL's website or reports:

"In preclinical studies, PI-88 has been shown to retard the growth of primary tumors by inhibiting new blood vessel growth (angiogenesis) through two mechanisms:


First; PI-88 inhibits endothelial cell proliferation by preventing the growth factors bFGF and VEGF from binding to the receptors on endothelial cells. ( Endothelial cells form the walls of blood vessels)

Second; PI-88 inhibits the heparanase enzyme secreted by a variety of cells, thus preventing the degradation of the extracellular matrix and the release of growth factors. ( Heparanase degrades the natural "glue" or extracellular matrix which holds cells together in a human body).

Additionally, PI-88 has exhibited the ability to inhibit metastasis in animal models by inactivating heparanase. This prevents the degradation of the extracellular matrix and the basement membrane of blood vessels which would otherwise allow the migration of tumor cells across the basement membrane".

Growth Factors:
BFGF: Basic Fibroblast Growth Factor, one of a family of naturally occurring chemical messengers (cytokines) that stimulate blood vessel growth. Also known as FGF-2.
VEGF: Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor, one of a family of naturally occurring chemical messengers (cytokines) that stimulate blood vessel growth.


Heparanase
An enzyme of the class endoglycosidase which is capable of cleaving heparan sulfate and has been implicated in many important physiological and pathological processes including tumour cell metastasis, angiogenesis and leukocyte migration.

Angiogenesis
The development of new bloo

[stolwyk]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=PGL&N=158268

Extract:

Progen commences third PI-88 Phase II trial
Brisbane, Australia Wednesday, February 11, 2003. Progen Industries Limited (ASX: PGL, NASDAQ: PGLAF), a progressive Australian oncology drug discovery and development company, announced the commencement of the third of a series of four Phase II clinical studies evaluating its lead anti-cancer compound PI-88, this time in lung cancer patients.

Following the recent successful completion of two Phase I trials - assessing PI-88 safety and tolerability as a single agent and in combination with chemotherapy respectively, Progen has now initiated both follow-on Phase II components of each trial.

The start of the single agent (melanoma) Phase II trial was announced on January 21st. Today marks the beginning of a 90 patient, multicenter Phase II trial of PI-88 in combination with Taxotere® for the second-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This combination trial is recruiting patients at the following nine Australian clinical centers: Royal North Shore Hospital (Sydney); Sydney Cancer
Centre, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital (Sydney); Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital (Perth); Mater Adult
Hospital (Brisbane); Queen Elizabeth Hospital (Adelaide); Prince of Wales Hospital (Sydney); The
Alfred Hospital (Melbourne); Prince Charles Hospital (Brisbane); and Newcastle Mater Misericordiae
(Newcastle).

Cancer drugs are commonly used in combination regimens, and this PI-88 clinical program is
exploring synergies between the antiangiogenic nature of PI-88 (a VEGF, FGF-1, FGF-2 and
heparanase inhibitor) and Taxotere® (an established cytotoxic cancer drug with broad antitumour
activity and marketed by Aventis).

Additionally, two completed trials in which PI-88 was delivered
as a single agent have shown a good safety profile and signs of activity against solid tumorsparticularly
melanoma and multiple myeloma.
The Phase I study of PI-88 administered in combination with Taxotere®, was concluded this week by
the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, Denver, USA.

The Phase I trial was designed to determine the appropriate dose for the Phase II trial and to evaluate the safety of the combination of PI-88 given subcutaneously on four consecutive days every week and docetaxel 30 mg/m2 administered intravenously once a week, for 3 weeks out of a 4 week cycle.

The safety profile of the combination was very good with no drug-related serious adverse events recorded. Sixteen patients were enrolled in the Phase I study (median age 53 (range 40-67) and 250 mg was established as the appropriate dose for the Phase II trial.

Rob Don, Progen’s VP of R&D commented. “Similar to the way that Genentech’s new anti-angiogenic
drug, Avastin®, was evaluated in combination with a chemotherapy regimen in treating patients with
advanced colorectal cancer, this trial has been designed to determine PI-88’s ability to show efficacy
in combination with chemotherapy.

We have seen positive signs in the PI-88 Phase I single agent
trial where over 40% of the melanoma patients showed tumor growth retarded for periods lasting up
to 30 months and from the Phase II multiple myeloma trial where 39% of patients have shown cancer stabilization for periods up to 2 years.

These data provide us with the additional confidence
to embark on the PI-88 Phase II clinical program, looking at benefits of PI-88 single agent therapy
as well as in combination with chemotherapy.”

July 2003 represented the conclusion of the first PI-88 Phase II trial in multiple myeloma and January 2004 signified the commencement of a second Phase II trial targeting advanced melanoma.

This Phase II lung cancer trial is the third of four PI-88 Phase II clinical trials that have been initiated
to date in different cancer categories. The fourth and final Phase II trial of the series will be used as
Page 2/2 an adjuvant single agent therapy in post-operative liver cancer patients (conducted by Medigen
Biotechnology Corpo

[stolwyk]

Extract:

"We have seen positive signs in the PI-88 Phase I single agent trial where over 40% of the melanoma patients showed tumor growth retarded for periods lasting up
to 30 months

and from the Phase II multiple myeloma trial where 39% of patients have shown cancer stabilization for periods up to 2 years".

Comment: These are highly significant results. And as far as I know the first meaningful result of any Melanoma cancer trial.

Melanoma is a most dreaded disease and treatment agents fear to tread in this field.

Phase I was very succesfull and if Phase II is, then there is a possibility that some concessions can be obtained from the FDA.

And what about selling this drug if proven successful?

At this stage, there would be a big demand for it IMHO.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

I referred to "IRESSA" and the deaths in Japan.

Here is an older article. It does show that Iressa doesn't do wonders:
___________________

WILMINGTON, Del. -- AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals announced on May 5 that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had granted approval for Iressa (gefitinib) for the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Iressa is approved only for life-threatening conditions – In this case, where no approved treatment existed.

The first of a new class of anti-cancer drugs, Iressa won majority backing from an FDA expert panel last September but final approval in the world's largest market was delayed while regulators examined additional clinical data.

AstraZeneca began shipping Iressa to pharmacies in mid-May, at a retail price of about $1,900 a month.

Iressa is administered as a once-a-day 250 mg. pill. It works differently than cytotoxic chemotherapy drugs commonly used for lung cancer.

Iressa is for patients with advanced lung cancer who have exhausted standard treatment. Iressa shrinks tumors in only a fraction of those terminally ill patients.

It's a controversial drug. Already sold in Japan, the health ministry there has linked it to 173 deaths from interstitial lung disease (ILD). Few users appear to get ILD, but it is fatal about a third of the time.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said it had enough evidence that Iressa offered some hope for patients already dying of their cancer to approve its U.S. sale even as Iressa's overall effectiveness continues to be studied.

One study of 216 advanced patients found 10 percent had their tumors shrink for at least a month while taking Iressa. Nobody yet knows if that translates into longer survival. But the shrinkage seems to last at least seven months, said FDA oncology chief Dr. Richard Pazdur.

Particularly intriguing is that Iressa seems to work significantly better for women – about 17 percent of them see tumor shrinkage vs. five percent of men. Also, it seems to work better for people who never smoked, a conundrum because smoking is the main, though not sole, cause of lung cancer. About one in six lung cancer victims has never smoked.

Another mystery centers on the fact that Iressa had no effect when more than 2,000 patients with early-stage cancer took it together with regular chemotherapy in two more stringent studies. No one knows why, although some scientists think combining regular chemotherapy with Iressa – which works by jamming one of a tumor's internal growth signals – could blunt the new drug's action.

The FDA warns that Iressa is not for use with other chemotherapies during early lung cancer treatment, and is requiring AstraZeneca to conduct more research to settle the issue.

Of about 28,000 Iressa users in Japan, about two percent developed ILD. In a U.S. study, less than half of one percent of some 23,000 people given Iressa in a special experimental program got ILD. In studies that compared Iressa to a placebo in people getting chemotherapy for early lung cancer, both groups came down with ILD equally – about one percent, the FDA said.

It can be hard to diagnose ILD in lung cancer patients, and other cancer treatments can cause ILD too, said FDA drug chief Dr. Robert Temple. Even if it turns out that one percent of Iressa users gets ILD, that's not a big enough risk to outweigh the drug's potential benefit to terminally ill patients, he said.

Iressa is indicated as a monotherapy for the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC after failure of both platinum-based and docetaxel chemotherapies. The effectiveness of IRESSA is based on objective response rates. There are no controlled trials demonstrating a clinical benefit, such as improvement in disease-related symptoms or increased survival. Results from two large, controlled, randomized trials in first-line treatment of NSCLC (INTACT I & II) showed no benefit from adding Iressa to a doublet, platinum based chemotherapy. Therefore, IRESSA is not indicated for use in this setting. As p

[stolwyk]

Date: 27 Febr: Share price rose 20 cents to $1.80.


"Today also marks an important milestone in Progen’s field of research. Genentech, Inc.(NYSE:DNA) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved AvastinTM (bevacizumab), a Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) inhibitor, to be used in combination with chemotherapy as a treatment for patients with metastatic cancer of the colon or rectum.

Stephen Chang, Progen’s Chairman commented, “This is outstanding progress for the anti-angiogenesis research area and helps build our confidence in our Phase II compound, PI-88. PI-88 is small-molecule-based and rather than relying on a single mode of action to induce an anticancer response, it inhibits blood vessel growth, or angiogenesis via multiple
growth factors including Fibroblast Growth Farctors (FGFs) and VEGF, as well as inhibiting other
angiogenic agents, including heparanase”.

Bolstered by this positive announcement in the angiogenesis research area, the main focus for
the company in the calendar year 2004 will be to continue to develop a robust clinical dataset for
the lead anti-cancer compound PI-88 and continue the ongoing partnering initiative".

Overnight at the Nasdaq, PGLAF rose to $A2.14, 34 cents more than the closing $1.80 cents on the AX. That one had already risen 20 cents.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Readers, here are some of my opinions on PGL. It is suggested that only those who can understand and absorp a fitting risk /reward will read these posts. Please take note of the Disclaimers accompanying these posts. Suggest you consult a properly qualified person before investing:
_______________________________

PGL's DRUG PI-88, how good is it? Post 1 of 2:

This drug is a powerful one: 40% stabilisation rate in Phase I, Melanoma, a notorious killer. Very difficult to cure but PI-88 has done a very good job with Phase I; not a phase where one is looking for good results.

So, how good will Phase II be?
I believe it can only get better with the addition of Chemo.

The drug already has 3 inhibitors, so in effect this is a fourth one and the combined effect could be very positive.

If so, then it would make PI-88 the foremost drug in the world against Melanoma, for starters, IMHO.

It is quite possible that this drug may get a preferential treatment by the FDA after conclusion of Phase II.

Presumably, they will be looking for a Partner who will take over from there.

And how big can the market be?
This is a major market and I wouldn't be surprised that once the marketing is in full swing, the revenue could be up to $US 500 mill per year.

Royalties could amount to 14% from Revenue.
What does that mean per share?

For starters, PGL had $16 mill cash on 2 Dec. 2003, enough to last 18 months. That is well past the end of Phase II. At that point, a Milestone payment from the Partner could take place.

Also, there are 4.2 mill options to convert on 31 May 2005 @ $2.50. That brings in $10.5 mill. That one alone will extend the previously quoted 18 months.

So, if the options can be converted, then there is no reason to raise cash for say 2.5 years or more. By that time, the drug could be marketed.

But the overriding argument is that PGL has only 33.9 mill shares at present. Fancy big royalties going to small number of shares.

Assuming this all took place then in time the 14% royalty per share is $US70 mill or $US49.0 mill after tax. That is $A65.3 mill (0.75). Say by then we have 40 mill shares or the income per share is $A 1.63

A P/E of 15 will give a value of $A24.50, say $24.20 after Company costs ; A P/E of 20 will give a share price of $32.70 or say $32.45 after Company costs.
_____________________________________

But there is more! Who says this drug with its triple head of inhibitors (then add chemo) will only treat Melanoma?

Here is another one:

2. Myeloma
Myeloma is a cancer arising in the plasma cells in the BONE MARROW. The deathtoll can be high.

July 8, 2003: Progen Industries Ltd (ASX: PGL, Nasdaq: PGLAF) announces the completion of the PI-88 Phase II trial in Multiple Myeloma and achievement of the study’s primary efficacy endpoints.

"The primary endpoint of the study was to investigate clinical efficacy in patients who had exhausted other treatment options.

For the purposes of this study, a clinical response was pre-specified as patients remaining stable or experiencing a decrease in blood levels of paraprotein (a marker of multiple myeloma disease severity). This endpoint was achieved in 39% of patients in the study".

Comment: Now waiting for a Partner and concessions from the FDA?

Gerry
Circumstances can change. Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

POST 2, cont.
Drug PI-88:

But there is still more:

Febr. 11, 2004: "Today marks the beginning of a 90 patient, multicenter Phase II trial of PI-88 in combination with Taxotere® for the second-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)".

Febr 1:
"The fourth and final Phase II trial of the series will be used as an adjuvant single agent therapy in post-operative liver cancer patients (conducted by Medigen
Biotechnology Corporation -Taiwan)".

So, summarizing, using drug PI-88:
Myeloma: Phase II completed.
Melanoma: Phase II has started.
Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)". -Phase II has started.
Post-operative liver cancer patients: Phase II to be announced yet (Taiwan).
_________________________________

PGL also has drug PI-166-Liver Cancer:
Jan.13, 2003:

"Progen Industries (ASX:PGL) (NASDAQ:PGLAF) has commenced a Phase 1b human trial with anti-cancer agent PI-166 at the St George Hospital
in Sydney in patients with inoperable primary liver cancer (hepatoma).

The Principal Investigator for the trial is leading liver
surgeon Professor David Morris from the University of New South Wales (UNSW).

The objective of the trial will be to determine the safety and tolerability of a single localised delivery of PI-166 to the affected liver. The trial is expected to take one year and involve approximately 20-30 patients.

PI-166 is a small organic compound with specific avidity to liver cancer cells. In preclinical studies conducted by Professor Morris and pharmacologist Dr Mohammad Pourgholami, the compound demonstrated the ability to reduce the growth of rat hepatomas, which like human
hepatomas, are resistant to established anti-cancer agents".

Comment: Not an easy task. We may well hear something about the outcome in March-May?

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

PGL is having a busy time and is being led by PGLAF, the Nasdaq code.

PGLAF hit $A2.91 (US $2.25; +36.4%; (0.7725), a massive 802.3k shares sold.

It is selling for much less on the AX: $2.50-$2.65. Much will depend on the US MM wanting to buy more if they are short.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Nasdaq: $A3.25

$3.15 on AX.

PGL was having some difficulty with jumping the $A3 barrier.

Let us hope it can stay above $3 this time. BTW, the Nasdaq turnover was massive: PGLAF: 770,000 units.

I am expecting the US MM to buy some here today.

I'll also ask PGL to speed up the change from OTC to ADR, level one.

I did ask them once before but they are a bit too slow acting on this item, I think.

Gery

[DamnYankee]

Having a pretty good conversation?
Just a bit too one-sided for me.

Readers: Please log on to HotCopper and read more of our faithful leader's "work". How's the Boiler Room working old man?

Quick Readers, the stock has gone up 100% since Feb. What a great time to get in!!! But get in soon, because there will be other "work" that will need attention on other channels...and when we dump our stock.

So please consult with someone who gives an F about your investment, not a 75 year old man chained to his computer.

[stolwyk]

As usual, another negative response and going into personalities again.

Come back within 6 months and read this thread again, trouble maker.

[tracker]

its the how and the way,
that is what is questionable
you just dont seem to ever get it, and i am not the only one who thinks this
trade well
tracker
ps lighten the " work" load it will make your life easier and more pleasant for others
you did say your "work load " at hotcopper would make it hard for you post here, too good to be true lol

[stolwyk]

Tracker,

It is a pity, I can't read your text too well; I thought you had some prominent position in the Hospital sector. Don't they write properly over there?

You will always find people who agree or don't agree with a person. That in itself means nothing. This guy loves harassing me.

You tend to be a follower though, always looking for approval.

Now remember this: "You are not to telltale on persons from another Chatsite". Not too difficult to remember or is it?

Finally, Tracker, you are once again into personalities, woman. This thread is to discuss PGL, not you or me.

Stop being vindictive,

Gerry

[tracker]

unlike you gerry i have very little time to post etc, and quite frankly being a "woman" has got jack to do with anything, although you seem to keep making this point for some unknown reason.(sexist, or just plain stupid not quite sure)
i have NEVER stated what my proffession is to you or anyone else suffice it to say I know alot more about cancer than you are able to even comprehend.
No need for approval, the only area that needs ammending is the way you post, enlighten ,emphasize,create,suggest,pronounce, my goodness the list goes on.
The questionable antics are created by you in an underhanded way that is quite frankly (thinking, thinking, thinking,
S L I M E Y
now please go back to Hot copper and concentrate on your "work load" as the keeper of HC I am sure you must be very busy,or are there not enough chumps there for you to persuade
tracker

[stolwyk]

Tracker,

You may well be using work I have prepared here. You must read it as otherwise you wouldn't be on these threads.

But of course that info is free and if Gerry spends time on it, you can abuse him as well.

And that is one thing you are good at: abuse.

You must be a lonely woman.

I feel sorry for you,

Gerry

[tracker]

8 kids hubby full time work um far from bored lol
but have a dig anyway
tracker
how can you tear yourself away from your workload at hc, must be soooooooooo hard

[stolwyk]

Whatever you say Tracker.

So you are looking after eight kids, got a job and are trading in "their time" as well.

And yet, a person can still feel lonely. That is not uncommon.

[tracker]

stolli I work full time, as a trader of the market I have 8 children , all in school between the hours of 8.30 till 4, am very happily married (or at least most of the time lol) and am successful at what I do enough to put 8 children thru private school, anything else you want to have a misguided dig at, HC must miss you you have been away at least 10 minuteslol
tracker

[stolwyk]

As usual, you always want the last post Tracker. Anyway, I told you that I don't like telltales. Please abstain from doing that. If you persists, then I'll be looking to remedy the situation.

Gerry

[tracker]

whatever ( couldnt resist lol)
tracker
you are so petty
(but what would I know I am only a woman)

[stolwyk]

Yes Tracker, you had to seize the last post again.

Also, in case you want to know, I am not always on HC. I do other work as well. The problem is that after you read my posts, which have some needing quite a lot of time to prepare, you then turn around and blasts me for sitting at the computer.

Can we agree then that it is not your business and that less meddling by you will be beneficial for both of us.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Brisbane, Australia Tuesday May 4, 2004. Progen Industries Limited (ASX: PGL, NASDAQ:

"PGLAF), a progressive Australian anti-cancer drug development company, announced today that it has received orphan drug designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for their lead anti-angiogenesis product PI-88 for treatment of malignant melanoma.

Orphan drug designation will provide PI-88 seven years market exclusivity when approved for this disease indication.

The U.S. Orphan Drug Act is intended to encourage companies to develop therapies for the treatment of diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 individuals.

Additional criteria include the ability of the product to address unmet medical need where no approved treatment option exists
or, the provision of significant benefit over other available treatments.

Under the Act, upon marketing authorization and during the period of market exclusivity, the FDA does not accept or approve other applications to market the same medicinal product for the same therapeutic indication.

In addition to potential market exclusivity, orphan drug status provides up to 50% in U.S. tax credits, grant funding for research and development and reduced filing fees, expedited review as well as advice on the conduct of clinical trials".
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

+60 cents to $3.65

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Now $4.22.(+22).

Not a bad investment for someone who paid $1.63 on 31 Jan. 2004: See the first post of page 1.

EG Capital has valued PGL at $6.15.

See what happens.

At this stage the price could be "combatting gravity":

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=AU%3APGL&time=&freq=

Gerry
Holds PGL/PGLO
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

There is interest for PGL and there have been rises for some time now: $5.40(+15)

It overtook NRT at $5.02. The Chart:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=AU%3APGL&time=&freq=

It is getting closer to vertical now. Ideally want some sidetracking.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

[dayz]

I agree Gerry, it would be good to see some consolidation around now. We don't want another boom & bust share, especially in the absence of any news.

Derek

[stolwyk]

Thanks Were.

"From a Forbes US site (originally mentioned on a Progen board on Yahoo) - Genentech's Avistan predicted to be a blockbuster seller. Progen's PI-88 is possibly more effective with multiple modes of action.

PI-88 could be commercialised in 2006".

http://www.forbes.com/home/markets/2004/10/08/1008automarketscan10.html
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[stolwyk]

eGCAPITAL put out a valuation of $6.15 in May. Much has happened since.

Thanks Pa2000:
_____________________________

"The note's from eG Capital.

They comment on Q3 Avastin sales, the relevence for PGL and how conservative their current valuation is (A$6.15).

They highlight as conservative assumptions:

- the deal size (US$100m);
- the drug price (half that of Avastin);
- the royalty rate (8%);
- no value on PI-166;
- no value on Medigen holding;
- no value on other IP (2nd generation PI-88, heparanase products, etc).

The A$16.90 valuation is simply the "unrisked" version (i.e. the drug making it to market) of the A$6.15 one (which discounts royalty revenues by 60% and total valuation by 20% to account for the risk of PI-88 not making it).

Can only imagine what it would look like if they weren't so conservative!"
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[stolwyk]

STATEMENT.

The share price is now $6.20 and the PGLO Option is $4. PGL:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3Apgl&time=&freq=

Those of us who have held shares and options for a while did very well: PGLO was 45.5 cents at the end of JAN.

The question is: Can this continue?
For starters, I see a new gap appearing on the graph and progress is vertical. STO=95

The demand is consistent though but why?
We know that EGCAPITAL put out 2 valuations, a very heavily risked one of $6.15 but later amended that to an unrisked status of $16.90.

PGL has very few shares and options of course: (35.1 mill shares, 3.73 mill listed PGLO options and 2.74 mill Management Options)

We know that their drug PI-88-see these threads- has more inhibitors than the by now very well known drug AVASTIN.

This alone is a powerful motive to have a higher PGL share price.
PGL has 3 Phase II trials going at the moment; their first trial for MELANOMA was a very good one and the FDA granted them the ORPHAN DRUG STATUS for Melanoma Phase I/II trial on May 4, 2004.

Some investors may think that the risked value may lie between $6.15 and $16.90, say halfway. They would then apply some correction factor to this value and so the Market will arrive at a value which is lower than ($6.15 + $16.90)/2 =$11.50. It is impossible to gauge what the correction factor to this value of $11.50 is. Will the market price be 67% of this, or more at the moment?

And when will any agreement between the PHARMA and PGL take place? Will it be for Melanoma only at this stage?
Are there any interested parties who keep buying?

I can't answer these questions and it is up to the reader to gauge the risk and make a decision if they need to make one.

I intend to see this one through because my entry price is low but also because I believe this to be one of highest intellectual drugs ever developed.

Still, the results from the trials won't be known till Febr/March, I think.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

[miner]

Not doing one of those sneaky posts are we Gerry[?][:0],oop's b*gger now your going to tell me of again for doing one:([B)]:D;).

[stolwyk]

This post was placed at HC previously.

Readers will know that I have referred to a gap a couple of times, the last time yesterday:

"Those of us who have held shares and options for a while did very well: PGLO was 45.5 cents at the end of Jan.

The question is: Can this continue?
For starters, I see a new gap appearing on the graph and progress is vertical. STO=95"
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The gaps at PGLAF and PGL are: PGLAF, gap at $US4.15 or $A5.69; PGL at $A5.80

PGLAF:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=PGLAF&time=8&freq=1

Overnight the PGLAF share price fell from $US4.71 to US$3.84. took out the gap at $US4.15 and is now $US4.16 ( $A5.70) Turnover: 141.5 k.
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Here is the BigChart for PGL:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=AU%3APGL&time=&freq=

The gap at $A5.80 is clearly visible and needs to be taken out.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

[DamnYankee]

"To visit archived posts?"
Are you sure that's a good move?
You truly want people sifting through the ramps of the past???
I think you're slipping in your old age. But ok....
***READERS***
Please visit archived posts to see when Gerry lost interest in VCR, NRT, ASC, AUO, CMQ and list goes on and on...Add PGL once the ski slope is visible.

[CHEQUERS]

Lump on - this is one is about to give birth.
Burrills (US Merchant Bank specialising in Biotech licencing deals)is now conducting what amounts to an auction amongst Pharma's / other biotechs - Licencing deal should be announced very soon!