A dollar in the Hand is worth two in the market

[Prince]

I decree to my overseas brothers:

The NZ Market is too high, the NZ Dollar is too high. Take your money out of the sharemarket while it is high, and take the money out of the country while the currency is high.

You may want to get back in after the crash, and when the currency drops to reasonable levels.

Sealed with some advice for New Zealanders as well.[xx(]

[trendy]

Done. Thank you for your sound advice...[}:)]

[duncan macgregor]

PRINCE, rubbish the market is not to high at the moment. The bull run is safe until election time oct- nov then make your post. Its not the NZ dollar that is the problem its the good old USA problem. The american dollar dropping makes ours look like its rising that is the problem the price of gold is the yardstick in our money terms. macdunk

[Andrew]

The market and the dollar have been up for so long, it looks like down, to me.

Maybe its time to take a fresh look.

[zyreon]

Simple view:
interest rate differential

when OCR+Fed rate converge the NZDUSD cross goes down.

[whiteheron]

Interest rate rises in other countries , especially the USA and Australia , once they reduce the interest rate differential compared to NZ will over time lead to a weakening of the NZ dollar back to near historical levels

My feeling is that the NZ market is close to or fully priced at present so I do not see too much more , if any , upside
Therefore be extremely cautious when selecting NZ stocks to purchase

[madmike]

anyone tell me when i should buy euro and pounds for overseas trip apr/may....now or wait...pound is over .38 again at the moment!!!!

[Andrew]

Interest rate differential is very important as stated above.

But once the differential moves it may be too late.

Take the contrary view +1

[MPC]

Madmike,
I live to travel and never know what country I will be in 2 months down the road. I have found for the amount of money I take travelling it is best to totally ignore the exchange rates and just buy when you are about to leave and just how much you think you will need.
Otherwise it just gets silly and you will end up like an Israeli tourist bartering hard to save 2cents.

Cheers, have a good trip

[zyreon]

interest rate is important, so is commodities, inflation, geopolitics, chart patterns, economic growth, business activity etc etc

and most important is peoples' interpretations of all of the above - you can look at inflation and say well that will increase the supply of the currency and make the value fall-- but then you can also say well inflation is up so the central bank will raise interest rates and put bullish pressure on the currency.

bullish-bearish fundamentals from my current interpretation in the immediate term seem balanced. but i'm looking for support at 6900 and resistence at 7250

i think if either of those levels get breached then the short-medium term trend will continue in that direction

for the longer term i feel more bearish than bullish - but as mentioned before not enough to go short just yet