The market is too high ..The rat has spoken

[ratkin]

The danger signs are all in place. This market has now only one place to go.......Down.

sign 1 In todays herald

"The sharemarket's index of top 50 stocks defied a string of good news to lose ground through today's session"

This is a classic sign that a market has run out of steam

Sign 2

Brian Gaynor. "The bulls are roaring " Never a good sign this one

Sign 3 Rising interest rates and a dollar way too strong. Good conditions to take money from NZ and place it into other sharemarkets with weaker currency

Sign 4 Members of the public talking about how well the markets are doing

Sign 5 I am all cashed up and the rat has good instincts


Look around you, you will see other signs, the main point is that when good news wont lift a market any bad news will crucify it

[duncan macgregor]

RATKIN, You jump to soon are you a rat or a mouse?. Look at history my friend, we still have time for some very nice gains. When it comes it will give much stronger indications than what you see now. People paying tax others getting over xmas etc etc high dollar worries so many explanations still time to make a killing. macdunk

[Sky Tower]

When the ship sinks the rats are always the first to scurry away (as in the movie 'Titanic')

The economy is booming, growth is at 4 %, unemployment is at a worldwide low, inflation is near the top of the 1%-3% return,and the surplus is high.

Recent (interim) profit results saw Telecom up 11.6%, Fletcher Building up 45 %, Wrightson up 85%, Freightways up 46%, Provenco up 76%, Pumpkin Patch up 126 %, and Contact Energy up about 50 % - it appears there is plenty of momentum in the economy. Re-election of the present government will not dampen the economy.

Ratkin, if you are out of the market that fine. Rats are always first out. Presumably you wont be back in til it starts to fall (hehehe) so we'll see you back in the market sometime in 2006 (and probably late 2006). But please be true to your word.

Bye for now. Have a refreshing and relaxing break. Enjoy your holiday. :D

[ratkin]

A profits not a profit till its in your pocket.

The rat has indeed taken his swag and jumped ship, i will leave the sheep to eat the few remaining sacks of grain. The rat is headed for europe

[easy money]

good afternoon mr rat...i can not agree with your comments...you will find that cer is still going very cheap..(all though not for long)..plenty of upside i believe

[duncan macgregor]

EASY MONEY, To late all the rats left that sinking ship a long time ago but good try. macdunk

[ratkin]

The rat is doing all his trading at betfair.com

Did you know there were more transactions completed on betfair per minute than on the NYSE ?

[duncan macgregor]

Ratkin, excuse my ignorance but betfair.com is a sport betting house much like a bookmaker operation. If that is true it has nothing in common with sharemarket investing. Which leads to the question what involvement has my rat friend got to do with all this?.
macdunk

[Gryffyn]

Ratman - rather than cash up put money into shares that will benefit from dollar fall and other market's relative performance, e.g. GPG (disc GPG). I think that they are well placed to continue to profit when NZ cools down a bit.

[ratkin]

goto betfair click on horse racing- todays card under markets and watch the trading action of a race in the couple of minutes before the start
oz racing at the moment. It is basically trading prices, by the time the race starts you can have a profit on all runners simply by continually backing and laying the favourite.
Take a look and you will see what i mean

Dosent have much to do with stocks (except financial trading) but has everything to do with trading prices

[ratkin]

when you are at the race page where the trading is taking place keep clicking the refresh button, you will be amazed how much trading is taking place

[ratkin]

Makes a nice change to be cashed up. How many of you are addicted to stocks? Go on admit it, half the reason you own stocks is for the entertainment value.
Many of you will never sell all your stocks, you love them too much. When you are at the cliffs edge
Dont be a lemming be a rat

[duncan macgregor]

Ratkin, You are a gambler and i an investor a big difference my ratty friend. Markets go up and markets go down exchange rates go up and down. Every movement the market makes creates an opportunity somewhere. The market will collapse one day but like a gambler you get the winners and the losers in every situation. It all depends on systems in place and strategy. You are a gambler and if you are a winning gambler then you understand what systems and strategy is all about. To say do as i do or you lose out only comes from a wide eyed beginner so perhaps stick to your gambling until you understand the systems to protect an investor when it all hits the fan. Take it from me more to be made on the markets than on your betfair or what ever it is. macdunk.
DISCL once played professional blackjack for 3yrs

[ratkin]

I forgive you for you do not totally understand what is available on betfair.
A hint is that the government in the Uk is seriously looking into bringing in a special tax for exchanges, this is because many stock traders have given up trading the markets and now trade betfair instead. A whole new profession has been formed of full time exchange players
This is not gambling as such but trading, many on betfair are making 50.000 pound sterling plus a year some much more.
There is no brokerage fee, no tax and a profitable trade to be had every minute 24 hours a day.

"Sports trading is just like working in the City, but instead of putting your brain power to the fluctuations in the price of frozen pork bellies, you are dealing with living flesh -footballers, horses, tennis players and card sharks. And you can work from home. "The betting exchanges came out of nowhere, really," says Danny, a career gambler who makes substantial amounts every week. "They are like eBay for betting. They hook you up, person to person, with someone else who wants to bet with you. Because they are very popular global concerns, they provide market volume, and an offer that competes with City trading and is much fairer than a bookmaker."

City boys, explains thirtysomething Danny, understand the betting exchanges because they speak their language. The sites seem to have been designed to convey a graphic Esperanto that can be understood by red-braced screen-gazers from Chingford to Shanghai. "For years, traditional bookmakers have been artfully confusing the customer with their fractional odds," says Danny. "The betting exchanges use a decimal system, like on the stock exchange. This means that gambling is more accessible and less intimidating than ever.

"Market traders and stockbrokers are good at betting because it is essentially a highly skilled thing," continues Danny. "Just like trading stock, you need to take an opinion, you get data from anywhere you can, you read anything relevant, you try to be unemotional and you make yourself sector-specific. In the City, it's pharmaceuticals; on the betting exchange, it's golf or football."

[duncan macgregor]

RATKIN, Without being negative i would like to state the following.
1 to have a winner requires you to have a loser
2 The middle man must get paid or it stops running
3 that being the case more losers than winners
4 On the stock market it is a possibility that everyone can win in a year and make a profit regardless of how unlikely it is a possibility
5 On your betfair it is can never happen
macdunk

[ratkin]

That is true, there have to be losers on betfair.
The losers fall into two categories
1) recreational gamblers-- these people know they lose in the long run but just like a punt, for example people like to bet on the cricket and rugby to add a little spice. These people are happy because they obtain better odds on betfair than at the TABS

2)BOOKMAKERS-- Bookmakers make lots of cash on course and at the racetracks, they lay some of this off on betfair to hedge their bets, they dont mind losing this money as it is more than offset by the money they make in the shops

Traders on betfair are a different breed--prepared to sit in front of the computer for hours trading each race, trying to make 5-10 pounds each race. Dosent sound much but there is a race every 10 minutes for about 16 hours a day.

Many of the recreational brigade could not be bothered with all this and are just there for fun.

Some traders fail too. Its tough, unless they understand risk management etc, are very fast on the mouse with a quick brain they will fall behind.

There are also now bots patrolling all markets (automatted betting programs).

On the plus side there are no briokerage fees.

You are also correct that over the course of a year all stockmarket traders/investors could win. However they could also all lose (unlike betfair.

I did not mean this discussion to degenerate on a stock versus exchange thread, there are many of them at betfair.
I just wanted to point out that recent newspaper headlines are showing classic signs of a toppy market

[duncan macgregor]

RATKIN, So far i think you are under 28 know how to scrap and good with the ladies.If so you are are reincarnation of my good self that still has to die. Only hope you end up with my luck good to noya macdunk

[ratkin]

Lol, wrong, wrong and wrong again

[ratkin]

Over 40, couldnt fight my way out of a paperbag and the only ladies i am good with have drunk 10 pints of lager

[rmbbrave]

Ratkin appears to be right with respect to betfair.com at least.

A few minutes ago (Innings break) you could get 1.98 on NZ to win the cricket and 2.00 on the ockers.

The that's just 0.5% lost in commission. If you know anything about cricket you would expect to make money with odds like these. The TAB often takes 10-20% in commission.

For example, they would have NZ on 2.0 to win and oz on 1.7.

[duncan macgregor]

RMBBRAVE, .5pc lost in commission with no dividend. WHOARE YA BACKIN YA MUG. AHH take the aussies. macdunk

[ratkin]

Have you looked at the live match odds? can bet while its going on, look at those amounts beeing matched

[ratkin]

read the general betting forum at betfair, many articles about trading. The forums are also interesting from a sporting prspective

[duncan macgregor]

RATKIN, i was miles in front of you in the past. I ran the operations. Nobody and i mean nobody had a go even in the toughest construction sites in the southern hemisphere. We played the games straight. we give the people back the money they lost if they were married men with families, and told them they were barred. Anyone making trouble never ever would do it again, and free beer was supplied all night. I got run out of two towns in NZ and four in Australia. You my friend have a lot to learn stick with what you know,dont get out of your depth. all the best macdunk

[ratkin]

You can also bet ball by ball. The prices change constantly, this is how to make money. Just keep backing and laying the same team,
If you know what you are doing you can build up big profits.

Also commision is only paid on profit,

EXAMPLE

BACK OZ 1000 AT 2.00 WIN 1000
LAY OZ 1000 AT 1.98 LOSE 980

iF OZ WIN YOU MAKE 20 POUNDS - 50 PENCE COMM
IF OZ LOSE YOU END UP EVEN

bets like that can be struck every few minutes when markets are very liquid, it is possible to build up very large profits with practice

Goto the forums on betfair in particular the generall betting forum, you will find there are many knowledgable people there, plus the usual idiots

[duncan macgregor]

RATKIN, you talk of winning and losing, i can tell you are a complete sitting duck. The martingale system of doubleing up and all that crap my friend made me a lot of money on the other side of where you stand. wake up and have a rethink before its to late. macdunk

[ratkin]

Who mentioned martingale?
I am talking about trading. Clearly wasting my time talking to you.
Think i will stick to the betfair forum in future, they talk more sense there

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

You can also bet ball by ball. The prices change constantly, this is how to make money. Just keep backing and laying the same team,
If you know what you are doing you can build up big profits.

Also commision is only paid on profit,

EXAMPLE

BACK OZ 1000 AT 2.00 WIN 1000
LAY OZ 1000 AT 1.98 LOSE 980

iF OZ WIN YOU MAKE 20 POUNDS - 50 PENCE COMM
IF OZ LOSE YOU END UP EVEN

bets like that can be struck every few minutes when markets are very liquid, it is possible to build up very large profits with practice

Goto the forums on betfair in particular the generall betting forum, you will find there are many knowledgable people there, plus the usual idiots


You are right ratkin I was watching those odds fluctuate wildly. It would have been very easy to place a bet on both teams and come out on top what ever happened. e.g Oz at 2.2 and NZ at 4.

I tried to set up an account but my credit card transfer was not accepted despite the fact that I have used this card at many sites around the world to buy things. I am now engaged in a rather pointless exchange of emails with one Mohsan Iqtadar from betfair who is blaming my card while I am blaming his site.

[rmbbrave]

Ratkin,

Ths thread has drifted off topic somewhat and seems to have become some sort of Betfair.com comercial.

In the interests of getting back on track, here is a check list that punters can refer to when they want to know whether the bubble is about to burst.

If some of the following things are happening in the market you know it is time to get out fast...

* Crass consumerism - yuppie lunches of crayfish and caviar swilled down with a magnum of Moet & Chandon, in the swamkiest restaurants.

* Two or more fresh - faced brokers or merchant bankers in $2000 suit flashing their gold cards while arguing over who is going to pay for the next round of cocktails.

* Taxi drivers giving investment advice - and the passengers acting on it!

* Brokers�f staff being provided with accounts and free loans for share trading purposes.

* Corporate executives buying new and better toys: jets, corporate boxes at sports grounds, etc.

* A sharp rise in prices accompanied by predictions that prices will keep rising.

* A rejection of income yields and fundamentals as a basis of value. The market smelling of greed, like booze on the breath of an alcoholic.

* A proliferation of dubious investment schemes and new companies (particularly investment companies - i.e. paper shufflers) promising rich returns to uniformed and gullible investors. Often with names ending in "corp", e.g. Equiticorp, Goldcorp.

* Intense involvement by speculators who for a time make a great deal of money and tell their friends who tell their friends...

* A scramble for assets that become increasingly scarce creating blue-sky prices.

* Companies outdoing each other to produce the bulkiest and glossiest annual report.

* Brokers being mobbed by party-goers demanding "hot tips", ( or worse still the party-goers are giving the broker "hot tips" - and the broker acts on them!)

* Enthusiastic investors forming a live, pulsating energy charged maul around a broker�fs trading screen.

[saintjohn]

rmbbrave

Your checklist is a breach of copyright.
It's from Frank Newmans "Making money on the New Zealand Sharemarket"...page 134

You should at least compliment the author for an
excellent publication.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

The danger signs are all in place. This market has now only one place to go.......Down.

sign 1 In todays herald

"The sharemarket's index of top 50 stocks defied a string of good news to lose ground through today's session"

This is a classic sign that a market has run out of steam

Sign 2

Brian Gaynor. "The bulls are roaring " Never a good sign this one

Sign 3 Rising interest rates and a dollar way too strong. Good conditions to take money from NZ and place it into other sharemarkets with weaker currency

Sign 4 Members of the public talking about how well the markets are doing

Sign 5 I am all cashed up and the rat has good instincts


Look around you, you will see other signs, the main point is that when good news wont lift a market any bad news will crucify it





A sweeping statement if there ever was one. Choose a good company and ride its natural highs and lows for a good long-term gain.

Might be right about the NZX as a whole but individual companies; your dead wrong.

B

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by saintjohn

rmbbrave

Your checklist is a breach of copyright.
It's from Frank Newmans "Making money on the New Zealand Sharemarket"...page 134

You should at least compliment the author for an
excellent publication.


Yes you're right saint john. That was in the last line but it got left off when I copied and pasted. Not page 134, 132.