TIMELINES - A critique.

[Phaedrus]

I can see that having some sort of standard reference gradient on your charts could perhaps act as a visual aid in comparing the relative performance of different stocks. So far so good, but Duncan has now extended this idea into the use of these "timelines" to provide exit signals. Any exit system is better than none, but the question here is whether "timelines" provide better exits than conventional trendlines. Some of the discussion around this topic has centered on the "BCA Come in Lucky 7" thread, in which Duncan has made some questionable claims.
(1) "A time line would have saved you a lot of wasted time in 2004 and told you to get out in March." I have drawn the "timeline" in question, and have marked with a red arrow the March Sell signal it generated. If you had totally ignored this signal and had in fact bought at this point, selling at the trendline break would have given a return over this time equivalent to 25% pa (ignoring divvies). Wasted time? I think not - and neither does Duncan, since this is well above his 20% threshold. The trendline kept you in this stock longer, for a higher return.
(2) "what i found if you look at the chart again is the trendline took over a year to confirm...." Wrong. Going from the March 2003 low gave a tentative trendline by July 2003 which was confirmed just a month later in August 2003.
(3) Duncan claims that "timelines" are simpler and easier to draw than trendlines. Anyone can simply link reaction lows and draw a trendline - you don't even need a calculator! Duncan has had no end of difficulty trying to explain his system. Even now, I am not really certain that what I have plotted here is what he really means. But then, I'm quite thick.
The above comments are based on a chart drawn with a linear price scale :-
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/BCAlin001.gif

If we use the more common logarithmic price scale the picture is slightly different. (Note how the 20% pa "timelines" are all parallel using this scale)
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/BCAlog002.gif
Here, the trendline gave an exit that was both earlier and higher than the "timeline".

In my opinion, Duncan's exit strategy is arbitrary and capricious. Nevertheless it "works", and is certainly better than nothing, but to my mind it is markedly inferior to the use of simple trendlines.
Any stock, no matter how good, will go through periods when it is rising at less than 20% pa. It is the overall trend that is important. The big picture.

[duncan macgregor]

PHEADRUS, Anything that makes charting easier to follow is worth while. This is not a competition only an idea that i incorporate into my system that makes it very easy for me to compare shares . I do not use it as a mechanical trailing stop loss as you presume, all it is is a system that tells me when a share is not worth holding.
The resistance against new ideas is to be expected as you well know. Conventional trend lines can only be drawn in hindesight after the event which in the chart shown can take over a year to draw in. What are we supposed to do, wait for it to be verified or draw tentative trend lines all over the place until we get it right after a years time?. With a time line i know if a share is going nowhere, i have the yardstick in place and get out. All my shares have a stop loss at different levels according to the risk level of the company. I follow shares on up trends, a time line is my best tool to keep track,and let me know, not a static stop loss system as you make out. The best system for everything still has to be thought up keep an open mind or fall behind. macdunk

[Paper Tiger]

Here is my take on MacDunks Timeline system.

Once he has interogated the workforce and decided to buy he sets an initial stop loss price based on his purchase price. This is the start value for his infamous timeline with it's 20pc gradient.
While the SP runs around above the line he is happy, if it goes below he sells up.

My main critism of this system is that he goes on about it endlessly.

Personally I make use of a spreadsheet to see how the old stocks are fairing, I type in the current SP add any new dividends and I have an instant summary of current gains and losses in terms of $, actual% and annualised % for each stock. Also I have been taking a TA view of my investments using bigcharts but that currently has total memory loss for NZ stocks.

[Mick100]

PHEADRUS, Tiger, I know a tea lady who works at a truck stop who served tea to a truck diver who had driven past WARREN BUFFETS house in omaha in 1952. you have to change your system every six months to stay ahead of the herd. you two losers are making me rich by not modifying your systems all the time.I make 30% per year and double my money every 4 years, the time line throws me out of stocks which do not reach my target of 20% pa, don't forget that you two are sheep and i am a sheep dog who always knows which way the herd is going to run, cheers Macmick100

[duncan macgregor]

MICK 100, sounds like you might be on to something mick. macdunk

[rotsevni]

Macdunk, I'm new here. This thread seems to be getting to the crux of the matter. So, maybe I'm asking you to go over old ground, but this thread is being read 2 times every minute, so please humour me and me and others a lot of reading back....

Phaedrus has taken the trouble to draw your timelines, something I've been looking forward to.
1. Can you please clarify if he DREW them correctly and why/why not?
2. If he drew them correctly but APPLIED them incorrectly, how should they have been applied? For example:
3. If you were one of the happy holders from May to June 2003, would you have sold in early June 2003 ($1.70ish)?
4. If not, what would have pursuaded you to sit through the 2 ensueing months well below the timeline?
5. If you [u]had</u> sold in June 2003, what would have prompted you to buy 2 months later to participate in a huge surge in price and 100% profit? Did the fundamentals change and would you update them that quickly?

Assuming your system would have caused you to sell in June 2003 and good research had caused you to buy back in August 2003, then from that point onward I understand both your and Phaedrus' reasoning, except for one thing:

You talk about having to wait for the trendline to be established, but from August 2003 onward it had already been established, no waiting required. So if you were a practitioner of both trendline and timeline methods, when the slowing occurred in March 2004 you could have chosen to either hang on at around the 20% level until the trendline break, or switch to another stock with a (hopefully) faster growth curve. It worked out that you could have done well either way last year, but this year it may well be more difficult, so the trendline may be the preferred choice now (or lower your 20% criterion)

[Winston001]

I'm new here too and have developed geat respect for Phaedrus and Mac. Their debate is very educational.

It seems to me that the Timeline approach is a simple system to alert a shareholder when a share is going sideways or growth is flattening. The 20% is arbitrary but I wouldn't be too proud to achieve 20%pa on every share I hold. I should be so lucky.

I can see that trendlines are technically better but, having never tried to draw one, I presume you need software and the discipline to enter the data. Or does Bigcharts do this? Is a 20 day moving average just as good?

[rotsevni]

I think the best trendlines are still done by humans, but if not Phaedrus will correct me. Drawing them is pretty easy once you capture a graph of the stock by whatever means (BigCharts, Yahoo Finance, Stockness, FatProphets). You can even print the graph and do it the old way with a pen and ruler! I do it with a screen grab and a MicroSoft Paint. Its better if you have a download of the price action (Phaedrus uses MetaStocks) since then you don't have to re-draw the line each time you update the graph. Phaedrus, can you remind us where to find an article about drawing them? I may be making wrong assumptions about when to re-draw them. Yours tend to be quite long-term. I draw short term ones as well and probably end up selling before you. I then buy back in when an old long-term trendline is re-confirmed or a new short-term one becomes established.

[KJ]

Personally I do the same as Paper Tiger.All we are talking about is a system to monitor the progress of your shares.A spread sheet could not be easier just as PT has described.If you also have your cost incorporated you can see at a glance your gain since purchase.

The main thing is that you have a system that works for you.

[rotsevni]

All useful tools. Pictures tell a story though.
They also show where your purchase was in the course of events which can be very informative.

Just a reminder now, I'm still hoping MacDunk will respond to my questions posted previously. I think both timeline and trendline are quite simple and certainly common sense and I just want to understand if I'm using them correctly or if there's more to it.

[duncan macgregor]

ROTSEVNI, Any system that makes it quick and easy to understand a problem is good. I still run stop losses, trend lines, and time lines. A trend line gets drawn after the event, a time line gets drawn before the event. Stop losses, and time lines can be raised or lowered to suit the risk and expectation. Trend lines are in the eye of the beholder with long gaps between verification sometimes as you will notice in the chart shown. If i set my time line from my stop loss level, i can see at a glance how the share is performing percentage wise, in comparison to my other completely different priced shares. I dont use my time line as a mechanical stop loss, it only lets me know when my money is better elsewhere, after all the share might not have dropped in price. It is so simple to draw, and so usefull. The chart that pheadrus posted my time line would have told me to get out in june 2003, and march 2004. If i were to buy in again depends on a bit of fundamental analysis plus a lot of homework. It is like a stop loss, set it to tight and risk getting flicked out, or to loose and risk a decent loss if it goes bad. It is only a tool to be used as such, the same as a trend line, or a stop loss. I fully expect to be ridiculed by the people with closed minds, but then we have people riding shares down into the gutter bleating about how right they are. PHEADRUS is good enough to share his charts and still has to put up abuse so old macdunks time line wont get let of the hook SCOT FREE. macdunk

[rotsevni]

Thanks MacDunk. I think I'll use both for signals.

You don't mention that trendlines resonate long after they are established (like resistance levels and anticipated Fibonacci retracements). Whether this is a self-fulfilling prophecy or not, I don't care. It works. The point I'm making here is that even though, as you say "a trend line gets drawn after the event" it does influence future events and is therefore VERY useful, which is no doubt why you list it as one of the tools you also use.

Thanks for your contribution, I enjoy your posts.

[Elwood]

Thanks to both Phaedrus and Macdunk, every time you post it provides insights and education. It is up to the individual to sort out what works for them and constantly review it. Certainl my next step will be to start a system. Thanks guys.

[Mingeathinaikos]

[http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/BCAlin001.gif

Can someone please tell me why PHEADRUS does not start his trendline where he did, but the next low it touches is the one at the beginning of April, giving a trendline break sell at the start of June.

Your comments will be appreciated. I guess i am a bit sceptical, because it seems that these lines always make perfect sense when drawn after the events.

[Paper Tiger]

Good point:

I think that you would initially have a trend line as you have stated which would see you out in June 2003.
But then by August 2003 you have confirmation of a longer term uptrend (as drawn by P) and you get back in.

Am I right ?

[whiteheron]

A question for macdunk

Phaedrus has drawn a series of timelines on his chart , each commencing from reaction lows

My original understanding was that you draw one timeline at the point of purchase , from the purchase point and at an increment of 20 % per annum so that at any future date you can view your timeline and the share price to establish whether the share price is running above the 20 % mark or not
Am I correct , or is there another dimension to this that I have not yet picked up on ?

If you keep moving your timeline up then it obviously becomes more difficult as time goes by to stay above the 20 % mark , but on the other hand if your share price takes off but later flattens or even reduces then a good exit point could be missed

These are just a couple of my observations and I am now a little confused , whereas I previously saw the whole thing in a simplistic manner and thought that I understood it completely

I have considerable respect for both Phaedrus and Macdunk --- different styles obviously work for different people and that is good
This is one matter on which you both obviously have considerable difference and a healthy debate on it is good

[Phaedrus]

Mingeathinaikos,
Here is an expanded chart of the area in question. As you can see, PT has got it right in that you probably would have initially drawn a steeper trendline, as plotted here in light green. The attendant exit and re-entry signals are marked with blue arrows. This would have been a good trade, but I am very much aware that the majority of posters on ShareTrader are primarily interested in longer-term trading. Therefore the chart does not show the secondary trendlines that together make up the primary long-term uptrend. It is easy to put these in, but the chart gets a bit cluttered if you include them. Plenty of people would in fact have traded these secondary trends all the way up, but I suspect that that sort of active trading is not of much interest to the average punter here. The long-term trendline that was the main feature of the post could not have been drawn until mid July 2003.
This trendline tracking the primary long-term uptrend remains the same regardless of whether or not you mark any secondary trendlines on the chart, or trade them.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/BCA221001.gif

[Mingeathinaikos]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Mingeathinaikos,
Here is an expanded chart of the area in question. As you can see, PT has got it right in that you probably would have initially drawn a steeper trendline, as plotted here in light green. The attendant exit and re-entry signals are marked with blue arrows. This would have been a good trade, but I am very much aware that the majority of posters on ShareTrader are primarily interested in longer-term trading. Therefore the chart does not show the secondary trendlines that together make up the primary long-term uptrend. It is easy to put these in, but the chart gets a bit cluttered if you include them. Plenty of people would in fact have traded these secondary trends all the way up, but I suspect that that sort of active trading is not of much interest to the average punter here. The long-term trendline that was the main feature of the post could not have been drawn until mid July 2003.
This trendline tracking the primary long-term uptrend remains the same regardless of whether or not you mark any secondary trendlines on the chart, or trade them.


Thanks, thats exactly what i thought, but i agree that things would get out of hand if you did put these secondary lines on everytime.

Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

That is exactly what i found with trend lines, it is easy to say it goes from here to here after the event, and in this case should have taken you out in three or four places. I put it to you that the time line exits are pretty close on that chart to where a trendline exit might well have been. The trendline goes from march 2003 then april gets verified in may, and shows a sell signal [wait for it lads]about exactly where the time line drawn shows. That is one of the reasons that i use a time line, and raise it up at my travelling stop loss level it gives sell signals that coincide with trendline signals, plus signal when it goes nowhere. The chart as shown a number of trendlines were available at different times on the way. which ones to pay attention to and what ones to ignore before hindesight confirms. Pheadrus is much better at charting than most of us with the ability to pick signals probabely better than anyone, but a dumb old scotty finds it easier, and simpler with time lines first and trend lines second. macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

WHITE HERON, sorry i missed your post my time line moves up with my stop loss at that level and never drops. When the share side tracks my time line catches up and shows a sell signal. Work out your stop loss on the above chart and start your time line at that level. macdunk

[Mingeathinaikos]

Phaedrus - thanks for the enlargement...bigger is better.
Again playing devils advocate a bit, in your enlarged graph the pink trendline could well have been drawn on the peak at the start of the third week in June (instead of the first week in July) giving a buy signal at the start of July, which would have not been as low as your buy signal drawn. After we see the graph progress we can see that the pink trend line you drew is the one that we should have followed, BUT we only know that after the event, as i understand it.

Whilst in this case it is minimal difference in entry price, i think it illustrates my point well.

I am not having a go at you, I beleive when peoples thoughts and ideas have to be justified everyone learns more, and ocasionally the person being challenged benefits as well.

[duncan macgregor]

PHEADRUS, Hope you will forgive me saying this but i find a time line a very simple and easy system in comparison to trend lines. I do use trend lines but only draw them in much later after i see a pattern. The chart shown shows numerous trendlines that might have been drawn in over the period shown. What is the correct one can only be shown in hindsight well after the event. The trend line that you show only suits the end result, but how did you know where to draw it half way through?. The time line starting at your trailing stop loss level and increasing at 20pc pa is simple easy and done before the event. MACDUNK

[Phaedrus]

Mingeathinaikos,
Sure, some people may well have drawn a trendline where you say and bought at the subsequent trendline break. They would have bought at $1.63 instead of the $1.58 example charted. That's 5 cents difference - a trivial sum especially since the Sell signal finally came at $3.36. This is all a side issue, though. The whole argument and comparison was about exits and based on the longterm trendline. How, when or at what price you entered is immaterial here.
Really, you can draw as many short-term trendlines as you like. You can even go right down to drawing intraday trendlines, if that is the type of trading you want to do. The situation with the long-term trendline is totally different though - there simply are no alternatives here. After July 2003 there was only one place that line could have been drawn.

[rotsevni]

This is my take on trendlines, for what it's worth.

I find that quite short term trends provide useful signals.
They also often fall on top of old ones (I keep track of them too in case they are echoed again in this way, which increases their significance). Support/resistance lines fall into this category.
The lines can stay valid forever, they are not made obselete when new lines are drawn.

I won't go on and on about this unless someone has a question, since I think the picture below, although cluttered, is fairly straigh forward, as is the numbering of lines (1, 2, 3) and confirming points (a, b, c). I did not bother numbering the ones before July 2003, to reduce clutter. Any line with 3 confirming points (having a point c) can produce a sell signal. This occurred 4 times (including the one Phaedrus showed in Nov 2005). The purple one in March 2004 provides an earlier signal than the others mentioned in this thread


http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-2/949184/AdaptiveTrendlines.jpg

[bull....]

Timelines are just like Trendlines how do you know what are the reaction low points except but in hindsight.
Therefore it is a lagging indicator not a leading indicator as it gives no forecast to price what would be interesting if both parties plotted there lines in advance realtime to see how they work instead of showing a chart which is 2yrs old.

[duncan macgregor]

BULL, You miss the point, the time line starts at your highest stop loss level, and is drawn in advance. Whatever happens to the sp is unpredictable. The time line catches up and tells you when you should sell even although the stop loss still has to be breached. The highest price of your stop loss is where your time line starts. Take the chart shown, and start your time line anywhere at your trailing stop loss level. Have another look and see how simple and easy it is. Look how complicated trend lines are in comparison. In this instance both giving sell signals at the same time. Thats it from me guys said enough on the subject i really dont care if it is better or worse,it is a system i use,and find it so easy. macdunk

[Liberty]

While I think you need a degree in gobbledegookology to decipher macdunk's utterings at times, his methods are not as unusual as he would have you believe.

Many technical analysts use time as a form of exit strategy; usually it is in the early days of a trade, ie active traders will cull a position which has shown little or no profit after x time period, regardless of where their stoploss is.

Where macdunk differs I believe, is in that he uses his system for an exit strategy after a period of time and after he has made a profit - and usually when there is a confirmed trendline also in place. In other words, he eschews the time-honoured technique of plotting trendlines, which have been shown to have practical meaning in the marketplace as rising support lines - instead believing that an arbitrary percentage should be applied to his return - and that if the stock can't produce that compoundingly, flicking it.

What I can't understand macdunk, is this: why 20%? Why not 25%? 30% even? What is so magic about 20%?

You'll surely think 20% is a magic number when the market turns on its ear, as it surely will, but why is 20%pa a magic number now? Any muppet could have picked a stock rising 20%pa over the last 2 years, there's nothing unusual in that. When the market goes down you've got your stoploss, and good on you, but in a climate where there may well be few, if any, stocks making 20% gains in a year, how will you make your money?

That much is unclear, and I'd love to know what your expectations of your system would be then.

[limegreen]

ROTSVENI, a little off topic, but you'll find your images look better if you save them as gifs. Jpegs use the blurring that occurs in your image as a cheat for photographs where colours are frequently adjacent to similar colours. Where colours are &lt;256, and there are clear sharp lines, such as these graphs, a gif will provide a clearer image while still retaining a small file size.

[whiteheron]

Liberty

You raise some very valid points but I doubt that macdunk will respond as he has signed off on this subject --- and he is a scotsman !

I am a frequent trader , trading virtually every day and sometimes up to about 5 or 6 times daily
The system that I use to keep my funds actively employed is to cull out the worst performers about once or twice a week and to move the funds therefrom to ( hopefully ) better prospects
This works most times but not always

The methods that I use are less formal than either Phaedrus or Macdunk , but the end result is probably not too different

We are all different , have different aims and techniques --- that is what makes it all so interesting

[bull....]

Obviously you have something that works for you and are doing well at the moment with timelines mcdunk so enjoy but agree with Liberty cant see how your system would work in anything but a bull market where its one way traffic.
Attempting to use your system in a directionless market would surely cost you alot in fees switching all the time to get a better return.

[Mick100]

Seeing as Mackdunk has withdrawn from the debate I thought I may say a few words on his behalf:

=========================

This sharemarket thing is a piece of cake, i make 30% per year double my money every four years I know a tealady who serviced a truck driver who drove past WARREN BUFFETS house in omaha in 1952. I have fort in three world wars, you lot have got a lot to learn, no system is perfect I take the best of the best and make it better. PHEADRUS I have learned heaps from your good self but i detect a weakness in your system
You have used the same system for 3 years and everyone knows what your doing with your trendlines, your not staying ahead of the heard. To do this you have to invent new systems all the time, I have taken the best of PHEADRUS SNOOPY and BUFFET and come up with a superior system called the macpump/dump timeline theory
i make a garanteed 20% pa with this new system, I am already working on major modifications to this superior system so by the time you lot figure it out i'll be doing something totally different next month, bull markets, bear markets who cares I always have a finger on the eject button, the timeline theory has been 100% successful since i started using it 5 weeks ago, cheers Macmick100

[ragwort]

Thanks Mick for putting a smile on my face first thing in the morning :D How hard is it to write like that?

[KJ]

Sometime ago I took a copy of some comments written by a successful trader.I think it was posted by Aspex.

"If I've learned anything in my 17 yrs of trading,I've learned that the simple methods work best.Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics,linear weighted moving averages,smoothing techniques,fibonacci numbers etc.,usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a rational decision.
One technique says buy;another says sell.Another says sit tightwhile another says add to the trade.It sounds like a cliche,but SIMPLE METHODS work best"

You do have to wonder don't you? It has not been difficult to achieve returns of 40% with sound financial analysis and some simple TA techniques.

[whiteheron]

This subject has prompted an interesting debate , however I would like to add that
the most important element in my success , above all else , has been to research , research , research

To have rules and guidelines is good , but dont let them control you , remember you are the one in control and if you are not then you will be punished --- the market doesnt care about you , it is just like a pot of soup and you are just a small pea in the mix ( no pun intended )

To be successful you must be ahead of the play , or be extremely lucky but that is not possible on an ongoing basis
Sharetrading is not for the feint of heart , you have to have staying power and be prepared to change your approach as circumstances warrant

[Phaedrus]

Duncan, let's see if I have got this right :-

Specifically, what are your "timelines"?
They are lines drawn with a 20% pa slope.

What is the starting point for these lines?
They start at my trailing stop level.

How do you set your stop?
My stop is set at different levels according to the risk level of the company

Do you have a system for this?
No. Stop losses and time lines can be raised or lowered to suit the risk and expectation. (!)

Wow! This means that you can draw a "timeline" anywhere, anytime!
Yes. They are MY timelines so I can draw them where I like!

Duncan, you have repeated the same old canards so often that you have come to believe them. An example :-
"A trendline gets drawn after the event, a timeline gets drawn before the event".
Garbage. The longterm trend line was drawn, confirmed and in place over 18 months before the Sell signal. The timeline that triggered your Sell did not even exist only 5 months earlier. Translation :- The trendline was in existence well before the timeline.
"The chart as shown a number of trendlines were available at different times on the way..."
There was only one longterm trendline, drawn in the only place it could have been drawn, giving a single exit signal as marked. You could have drawn any number of shorter-term trendlines, but this was a longterm trade.
Duncan, if you somehow find it easier to plot large numbers of separate timelines rather than simply extend an already existing trendline, fine. I can't argue with that. I'm just pointing out that your timelines do not work all that well, that's all.

Let's look at one last example, using TPW (which I understand you hold). This excellent stock has been rising at 63% pa for quite some time and I'm sure most people would agree with you that this is a good share to hold. I have marked a few of your 20% "timelines" on the chart using reaction lows as their starting points since these are an obvious and logical place to set stops. You can easily see that your multiple "timelines" signal many exits as the rate of increase temporarily falls under 20% from time to time. Anyone using your system would have been flicked out of this superb stock many times over. They would most certainly not be holding TPW at the moment.
I am reluctantly forced to the conclusion that you don't actually use this "system" at all. You just talk about it!

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/TPW222001.gif

[kittydashwood]

Surely leading indicators like momentum, volume, money flow and OBV dictate exit points??

Agree completely MR P.
MCD placing arbitary timeline exits only leads to churning and taxation imho.

[duncan macgregor]

PHEADRUS, as i said before i cant be bothered going over the same ground over and over. It is a complete waste of time, but since it was you that started the post about a system that i devised i will answer. I set stop losses at different levels, to suit the company risk. One company 10pc another 15pc whatever nothing out the ordinary i would think. My stop losses are trailing following the sp up. I expect even you do the same. My 20pc time line is constant and starts at the latest stop loss level nothing to difficult in that i would think. i am not interested in proving me right or wrong whatever way you look at it, but only shared a system that i use,and might be usefull to other like minded people. I used to marvel at people having a go at your systems, and likening it to reading goat entrails, now i find a simple system like a time line gets so much abuse, and misunderstanding that i simply cant be bothered. To the other posters i only hope that i kindled an idea the others dont count. I leave the last question open to all the little people that jump in for a nip and out in the obscurity of knowing that we dont know their identity like you know mine.
WILL THE NEXT PERSON WITH BE PUT OFF SHARING A SYSTEM BECAUSE OF YOUR PETTY NITPICKING. No more from me thats what i do macdunk

[ananda77]

duncan mcgregor:

I think you should supply a real example of how your time-line works. Now I know that you bought TPW @$4.84 (before the half-year result) and from reading your posts I would assume that you would have put a stop-loss somewhere @-5% (or did you put a stop-loss @$4.84??

Anyway, with a slope of 20%, indeed you would have not been out since from the time you bought to now as TPW has stayed above 20%.

With all due respect, what I think could be a problem with your timeline is that you would give back to the market quite a substantial portion (20%) if indeed the share would start to trend downwards.

[Paper Tiger]

Pity to throw the rattle out of the pram MacDunk.
The Nitpicking is generally people trying to understand the detail of your system, we are all (with the exception of Mick100) trying to clarify our understanding. Remember people have pre-concieved ideas such as Phaedrus hanging your timelines from lows and it takes time for that "Haah" moment to be reached.

So carry on, remember that if the pupil does not learn the teacher must take some responsibility and if you wish to receive zero criticism in the future then it may help if you never give any either.

Anyway I for one did not realise that you moved your timeline up as/if the SP went up.

all in fun, Paper Tiger.

[ananda77]

PS: I think the only real difference between a conventional trendline and your timeline is the start-drawing-point. In the $4.84 example, a conventional TA theorist would not start drawing a trendline at that point.

[bull....]

Phreadrus your chart sums up exactly my thoughts as expressed earlier choppy market would lead to excess churning making the system no good.
McDunk I thought you had more balls than this running away because of some constructive criticism.

[duncan macgregor]

Bull i am not running away. i cant be bothered with looking at a chart that shows time lines starting all over the place when they must know better. Its obvious some people resent the fact that other people come up with ideas that work. I wont comment or explain further it is a complete waste of time. I only hope the next person that comes up with a system or new idea isnt treated to the same garbage. I fully expected abuse from the nit pickers, and only hope that the people that matter, [the ones with open minds]got something out of it. Next time i come up with something new i will do it all over again. THE CLAN MOTTO royal is my race we will never surrender. All the best macdunk

[limegreen]

quote:i cant be bothered with looking at a chart that shows time lines starting all over the place when they must know better.

Perhaps it would help in our job of knowing better if you could provide a worked example yourself. Preferably with a chart, seeing as that's how your system works. A picture is worth a thousand words, and would probably make it easier for plebs such as myself to understand.

[Capitalist]

The clan has a liking for straw. Q.E.D.

[k1w1]

If I may reply on behalf of McDunk who has cut and run:

"Right , I can't be bothered with any clear answers to all your questions, you nitpickers, but here is the example the chap with the funny Indian name asked for:

its quite simple there is this agricultural company that hires out power equipment which my tealady told a truck driver about...

, so I draw a time line, from the stop sign outside the canteen, to the back of the truck. When the truck reduces speed to less than 20 km/hr then thats it - I'm out of the truck and straight back to the building site.No goodbyes, no emotional attachments - nothing.

No graphs either , get them free at Stockness monster and draw your own bloody lines.

I'm not one of those who fall in love with their stocks even as they fall, like that nitpicker SNOOPY, or ask too many tricky questions like that cleverdick PHAEDRUS. SNOOPY and PHAEDRUS- thanks guys you taught me everything.But now I have surpassed you.

I learnt everthing I know by furiously bombarding you with questions. But now people want to ask me questions and I can't be bothered answering them. Especially the ones I don't know the answers too. Only Yogi-in-Oz understands my situation.

Anyway the next part of my system is that I furiously pump the stock, as well as my never fail system. Half pump at first and then the full pump once I have retrospectively confirmed the trend.

My system never fails - because I never actually use it as I descibe it- except after the event, to prove how much more clever and successful I am than all you nitpickers. You've never boxed, worked on a builders site, lived on a farm in your lives. OR FOUGHT FOR YOUR QUEEN AND COUNTRY. HURRAY FOR BONNY SCOTLAND, your all the enemy . ALL THE BEST, MACDUNK.

[duncan macgregor]

Not bad kiwi. Shows you have paid me a lot of attention to come up with that. Good laugh well done my friend, at least you didnt try and twist it all to inflame your own ego or jump in for a nip with the nitpickers. I will be on your side next time for sure. your old mate macdunk

[Mick100]

An assessment of kiwi's rendition of Macdunk

CONTENT 9/10 - very good
Comment:

-Didn't make any sense at all - (good)
-tealady/truckdriver combo - (good)
-a practical use for time lines - (very good)
-the snubbing of Snoopy and Pheadrus followed immediately with a thankyou "for all I'v learned" - (excellent work)
-references to boxing, building and bonny Scotland - (all good)


PUNCTUATION 2/10 - poor
Comment

-should be one rambling paragraph
-too many full stops (the occasional randomly placed commer will suffice)

END

[brother coy]

[:p][8D]ya suckerrs for only a small moneys say 99 doolars mes sell ya da timeline system hahhaha sees it tolds me to sell hirequips hahahah:D

[Capitalist]

Well that is an easy target, but not the point.

If you put up a strawman you can expect it to be knocked down. Such people nearly always exit the debate in a hurry claiming victory, with a few ad-hominems thrown in for good measure.

I put it to the ST community that the elevation of this person to the status of deity is ass-kissing and no more. I am no slouch in synchronic linguistics and I have to read the posts at least 3 times to make sense of them, let alone learn anything. The *system* is a floating abstraction, no more. Don't diss Phaedrus for exposing that.

[brother coy]

hhaha wells saida honey ahhahaa

[whiteheron]

brother coy

I guess that you have not got an english programme though
You could sure do with one

[brother coy]

okaysa sucker i take english lessons from now okays and i placea timelines from now if mes english donts imperova 20% i give up okayshahhahhaa:D

[duncan macgregor]

GOODONYA BRO youes dont need much improvement to beat sum of dem suckers. MACDUNK

Bro - Using MacD's principles of timelines means that if your English deteriorates 20% you revert to Pidgin. Gawd help us if it does. Him fella me likem.

Mick100 - Commer = Pommie van
Comma = Female Commie.

MacD - I reckon you'll do better with simple trendline breaks.

[PGL]

Longtack,

Keep on defending MacDunk like this and he will think that Robert the Bruce has been reincarnated

[rotsevni]

Nothing funny on TV so I came here instead. I see everyone else had the same idea.