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floyd
20-02-2005, 06:47 PM
Hold both, quite an interesting concept but it would have to be a pretty good takeover offer.........[8)]

Takeover rumours surround airport
19 February 2005
By PAM GRAHAM

Speculation is rife that the owner of Sydney Airport may launch a multibillion-dollar takeover bid for Auckland International Airport, but it is no sure thing because it could prove too expensive.


This is the view of Macquarie Equities in a research report noting speculation that the next big trans-Tasman deal could be airports.

The biggest reason for Macquarie Airports, the listed infrastructure investor that owns Sydney Airport, to bid for Auckland International Airport would be that Auckland's price to earnings multiple is lower than Macquarie's. It is cheaper.

But Macquarie Equities warns against a straight comparison of earnings multiples.

It said Macquarie Airports' investments had large amounts of capital expenditure behind them and Auckland Airport had large capital expenditure in front of it.

Macquarie Airports was created by Macquarie Bank, which also owns the Macquarie Equities brokerage.

Any bid would have to be at a premium because Macquarie Airports would not want Auckland International Airport to remain listed.

The Auckland airport is still 12.76 per cent owned by Auckland City Council and 9.56 per cent owned by Manukau City Council.

Its shares have risen 1.5 per cent to a record $8.50 since the Macquarie research report was published last week.

This is almost five times the $1.80 price at which the airport was floated in July 1998, when the central government sold its 51.6 per cent stake to more than 60,000 small investors.

Auckland's international passenger volumes are forecast to grow above long-term trends for the next five years. Auckland Airport has traditionally generated operating margins of above 75 per cent – to the envy of most peers, including Macquarie Airports. It handles 75 per cent of all international passenger volumes in New Zealand.

Auckland International Airport also has a land bank of 1503 hectares, of which only 262ha has been earmarked for development so far.

If it had to pay Macquarie Airports' usual 1 per cent management fee, its forecast earnings multiple for 2005 would rise from 14 to 16.4 in 2005 and from 12.5 to 14.8 in 2006.

This more expensive price was not compelling.

"A bid can't be ruled out, but it is not necessary to sustain a positive view on the company," the report concluded.

nelehdine
21-02-2005, 08:36 AM
I wouldn't sell mine to MAP for anything less than $12 ... and that would have to be cash, absolutely no interest in their scrip, the management fees they pay are absolutely horrendous .... literally hundreds of millions of dollars.

Disc: Held AIA since $1.80 float

nelehdine
21-02-2005, 09:44 AM
Stock up 12c to 865 ... may be some legs to this story

Lawso
21-02-2005, 12:27 PM
quote:I wouldn't sell mine to MAP for anything less than $12
I couldn't agree more, neleh. We should all get together and tell MAP to butt out. A sale of AIA to MAP, or any other foreign predator, would be a sad loss for the NZX and a serious blow to the NZ economy IMO.

Steve
21-02-2005, 12:30 PM
What level of Local Council shareholdings are there? Would they be keen sellers, or prefer to hang on to what they have had since listing?

rmbbrave
21-02-2005, 12:56 PM
It could be possible that PAM GRAHAM wants to talk up the shares so she has written this story so she can sell her shares for a little bit more.

Placebo
21-02-2005, 01:09 PM
Auckland city 12.7 percent, Manukau City 9.5 percent. Sale of shares has been contentious in the past. Banks was keen to dump them, previous council blocked that (at least in part). Not clear where Hubbard and current council stand (has not been an issue).

RMB Brave I do like your cynicism!:D

nelehdine
21-02-2005, 01:14 PM
John Banks sold half the ACC stake a while ago .. turned out to be a costly mistake ... still Banks is good at spending other peoples money !!

Steve
21-02-2005, 01:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

It could be possible that PAM GRAHAM wants to talk up the shares so she has written this story so she can sell her shares for a little bit more.

No, I don't think so as PAM GRAHAM would have disclosed her interest in a footnote to the article...[^]

Lawso
21-02-2005, 01:49 PM
Yeah right!

StainlessSteelRat
21-02-2005, 04:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by floyd

Hold both, quite an interesting concept but it would have to be a pretty good takeover offer.........[8)]

Takeover rumours surround airport
19 February 2005
By PAM GRAHAM

Speculation is rife that the owner of Sydney Airport may launch a multibillion-dollar takeover bid for Auckland International Airport, but it is no sure thing because it could prove too expensive.


Too expensive is right - at 29 times earnings, they are starting to look like a dotcom.

nelehdine
21-02-2005, 07:51 PM
Wont be 29x for long ... the usual spectacular earnings announcement due in the next few weeks will soon lower that figure substantially.

Sharebroker
21-02-2005, 08:22 PM
A Macquarie report on Macquarie Airports making a bid for AIA? Why would they put that kind of speculation into the market : self-defeating!

A sure sign that it's not going to happen. ;)

Sharebroker
21-02-2005, 09:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

John Banks sold half the ACC stake a while ago .. turned out to be a costly mistake ... still Banks is good at spending other peoples money !!


How about the North Shore City Council selling out then at $2.80? Or Franklin Council at $2.00? Or Changi at $3.56?

They are all very good at spending other people's money too?

At least ACC kept half and the shares were sold at very much higher levels.

nelehdine
22-02-2005, 09:00 AM
Agree sharebroker ... the members of NSCC and Franklin councils must wince every time they open the business pages of the NZ Herald , the ratepayers can't be impressed either .... I wonder if Marlborough District will ever sell off Blenheim Airport .....

Steve
22-02-2005, 12:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Auckland city 12.7 percent, Manukau City 9.5 percent. Sale of shares has been contentious in the past. Banks was keen to dump them, previous council blocked that (at least in part). Not clear where Hubbard and current council stand (has not been an issue).

RMB Brave I do like your cynicism!:D


Hubbard and the current council would most likely be holders for the longer term from what I can gather...

StainlessSteelRat
24-02-2005, 04:39 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Wont be 29x for long ... the usual spectacular earnings announcement due in the next few weeks will soon lower that figure substantially.


Well the numbers are in, and based on the forward projection of $105m for the full year, they're looking to be at "full value". If they do manage to make target that gives them a P/E of 24.3 on today's close of $8.37. A large number for a "utility".

That said, there's likely to be a feeding frenzy between now and the split, ala FPH, so this little rat might just have a bit of that action.

Cheers

Liberty
24-02-2005, 07:52 PM
"Hubbard and the current council would most likely be holders for the longer term from what I can gather..."

I don't think Hubbard will have much of a say in it, Steve.