There is a bear in the air

[ratkin]

Stocks are beginning to stall, the good news is all out there now. A few foolhardy souls will jump on the bandwagon.

Fact is this is probably the worst possible time to be buying NZ stocks as a group. The pros will be ok, in and out quick. However for the potential long term investor now is not the time to jump in.

The economic cycle is at the top of its cycle, the housing market is now overpriced, there is always a lag between overpriced and falling prices, we are in that dissilutional state now. When you see baches being sold for 600,000 in a hole like gore bay you know fair value has been exceeded.

Interest rate hikes are going to help take the shine off equities as will the high dollar.
Manufacturing has done well, however it appears to be moving en mass to china to take advantage of cheap labour, thousands of jobs are being lost in christchurch alone to china.
There is low unemployment now, however that situation wont last much longer.

Bush is soon going to do something stupid in iran, the united snakes of america is looking more and more like the roman empire in its last days, there is a fundamental shift in world economics taking place.
The sea level is rising , the ice is melting, the planet is dying and no one gives a stuff. But they will

Only worthwhile investments at the moment are crematorioms, funeral dirctors, construction companies specialising in sea defences and makers of anti depressents.

Now where is my prozac......:)

[ratkin]

and spellcheckers

[zacman]

...and we are losing the cricket

z'man

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin


Only worthwhile investments at the moment are .... funeral dirctors

...and one of those went broke in Auckland last month !!!!!

[Westie]

quote:
Only worthwhile investments at the moment are .... funeral dirctors

...and one of those went broke in Auckland last month !!!!!


Thats cos its a dying industry :D

[bear]

I thought i was the only bear around here and i don't intend to come out any time soon

the real Bear

[Major von Tempsky]

Yeah, but it's still election year.
Sell out in October.
The bear smell could be related to the NZ$ > 0.72 cents US....and fund managers like AMP sending their money off-shore.
The NZ company reporting season has been going well enough.
I pick it as a temporary pause, a lull.
However as an investor with a big chunk of new funds coming up....I'd love to see the NZX crash big time at the moment, just temporarily of course....I'd love it, I'd love it, down boy, down....

[ratkin]

When even the bears are not bearish you know stocks are overpriced !!

Patience, patience, the time to invest will arrive. Only fools rush in

[lovegear]

The Rat is on to it. Lovegear has been lurking, patiently waiting for the bear to come out of its cave. THIS QUARTER the NZX gives us the FOX [}:)][:p]

Plenty of over priced turkeys to shoot down, I wonder which ones the instos have already lined up in their sites :D[:0]

[Paper Tiger]

Beware the ides of march

Another ratkin doom and gloom thread. I rate myself as a naturally cautious investor and yes I believe that the a number of stocks are over-valued and will suffer more when market sentiment changes long term. (Note for Ratkin: one day dip or newspaper headline does not a downturn make).
However the is steam in the market yet and I for one think that the general sentiment around NZ and OZ will remain positive for a while.
There will be some growth this year.
Even then there is nearly always good value to be had somewhere in the market it is just that you have to work a little to find it. There are a number of good companies out there.
If you are into the easy money then at some point it is time to go and if you are as nervous as ratkin then you should never have come here :D

[Lawso]

ratkin, kittydashwood, papertiger and now bear. This site gets more like a mad menagerie every day ;)

[Paper Tiger]

and who let you out of your cage [?] ;)

[KJ]

So Ratkin-are you completely out of NZ shares?

[kittydashwood]

I feel the exchange rate could go much further. Brokers in the US are advising clients to increase international holdings, the South Koreans are lining up a big chunk of Australasian dollar based bonds, Cullen will announce more sharemarket incentives, the Super Fund will keep buying. No pointinvesting overseas if the relative value of the investment in NZD keeps sliding. The puncture in the .725 resistance this weekend is an important sign, sure there is plenty of downside back to .67 but a rush to leave the dollar will take us to .75-.80 cents. Even the central banks of Asia have a pain threshold.

I was stopped out of DVY and IWM recently. The December- Feb chart for the DOW looks like a double top to me. Latin America and the Australasians are looking good to me.
Roll on the Great Southern Century.

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

The December- Feb chart for the DOW looks like a double top to me.


Concur.

[duncan macgregor]

Know when to hold know when to fold never count your money till the game is done. We should write a song about that dont you think?. When you are winning dont stop. When the game turns, know when to run. So what is the big deal guys want to jump ship before the finishing gun sounds. It sounds like a bunch of fundametalists that ride the ship down with no exit strategy. You are only a ph call and two mins from selling up so what is the big deal. I dont mind a 10pc loss at the end, before i start counting my winnings. macdunk

[Placebo]

Speaking of old songs, for those old enough to remember the 70s "bear in the air" was CB speak for a police helicopter, as in the song by CW McCall


quote:Yeah those Smokies were as thick as bugs on a bumper
They even had a bear in the air
I says Callin all trucks, this here's the Duck
And we're about to go a-huntin bear


How sad am I?[:o)]

[rmbbrave]

That was my favourite song when I was about 8.

[Placebo]

Okay, by popular request (hint: Say it monotone in as low a voice as you can muster).


quote:It was the dark of the moon on the sixth of June
And a Kenworth pullin' logs
Cab-over Pete with a reefer on
And a Jimmy haulin' hogs
We's headin' for bear on Eye-one-oh
'bout a mile outta Shakeytown
I says "Pigpen, this here's Rubber Duck"
"And I'm about to put the hammer down"

('cause we got a little ole convoy rockin' thru the night)
(Yeah, we got a little ole convoy, ain't she a beautiful sight?)
(Come on and join our convoy, ain't nothin' gonna get in our way)
(We gonna roll this truckin' convoy 'cross the USA)
(Convoy)


By the time we got into Tulsa-town we had 85 trucks in all
But they's a roadblock up on the cloverleaf
And them bears 's wall-to-wall
Yeah, them smokeys 's thick as bugs on a bumper
They even had a bear in the air
I says "Callin' all trucks, this here's the Duck"
"We about to go a-huntin' bear"

('cause we got a great big convoy rockin' thru the night)
(Yeah, we got a great big convoy, ain't she a beautiful sight?)
(Come on and join our convoy, ain't nothin' gonna get in our way)
(We gonna roll this truckin' convoy 'cross the USA)
(Convoy)



Well, we rolled up Interstate Forty-Four
Like a rocket-sled on rails
We tore up all of our swindle sheets
And left 'em settin' on the scales
By the time we hit that "Chi-town"
Them bears was a-gettin smart
They brought up some reinforcements
From the "Illinoise" National Guard

There's armored cars and tanks and jeeps
'n' rigs of ev'ry size
Yeah, them chicken coops was full of bears
And choppers filled the skies
Well, we shot the line, we went for broke
With a thousand screamin' trucks
And eleven long-haired friends of Jesus
In a chartreuse microbus

Well, we laid a strip for the Jersey Shore
Prepared to cross the line
I could see the bridge was lined with bears
But I didn't have a doggone dime
I says "Pigpen, this here's the Rubber Duck"
"We just ain't a-gonna pay no toll"
So we crashed the gate doin' ninety-eight
I says "let them truckers roll, ten-four"

('cause we got a mighty convoy rockin' thru the night)
(Yeah, we got a mighty convoy, ain't she a beautiful sight?)
(Come on and join our convoy, ain't nothin' gonna get in our way)
(We gonna roll this truckin' convoy 'cross the USA)
(Convoy)