FPA what is the real value?

[Macrob]

I can't believe that $2.* is the right value of FPA. Unless there is something we don't know- say lost contracts in US? Price/Earnings Ratio 8.9762 is one of the best on NSE. In comparison to WHS Price/Earnings Ratio 21.4286 should be worth much more then 4.*
What is the real value of FPA?

[k1w1]

Macrob, a gentle word in your ear, go up to the Canwest thread and read what Paper Tiger said to Clarky.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Macrob, a gentle word in your ear, go up to the Canwest thread and read what Paper Tiger said to Clarky.


LOL! Good one, k1w1:D

[Placebo]

You give him the benefit of the doubt, Steve. I just thought it was PT being a miserable b*stard

[Paper Tiger]

Placebo!

Clarky had only made three posts and started three new threads, two on existing topics.
I was only being my useful helpful self [:I]

I also think K1w1 post was very amusing.

[Placebo]

:D:D:D

[Paper Tiger]

Anyway to answer the question that started this thread. FPA is suffering from foreign competition, high NZ dollar, price of steel etc and is definitely worth $2.*
Meanwhile WHS is generally regarded as well overpriced and most value investors here would not touch it with a barge pole.

[Macrob]

hi k1w1, I don't think you any moral rights to such comments. Unless you lost more then me on FPA. The question is if we can find what is the real value for the one the best NZ companies and if the market may have it wrong in this case?

[Placebo]

quote:one the best NZ companies and if the market may have it wrong in this case?

Macrob, perhaps you have to consider the point that it might be you who has got it wrong?

One of the best NZ companies? Clearly the market doesn't think so at the moment. Try AIA, CEN, TEL for that matter. All doing markedly better on price performance (as one measure, which leads me to the question, what are you basing your assessment on? They have issued a profit downgrade which I think is absolutely no surprise, given their exposure to international commodity prices, their growing exposure to US dollar earnings and the high NZ dollar. I have never held FPA but I did hold FPH and sold when I considered there was a high risk of the high dollar having a severe impact on earnings and therefore its growth. I continue to have a high regard for FPH as a company, but I wouldn't buy it at the moment.

As our old mate Duncan MacGregor might say, don't fall in love with a company, look at it with an objective eye and when you see some red flags going up, get out quick!

[k1w1]

quote:Originally posted by Macrob

hi k1w1, I don't think you any moral rights to such comments. Unless you lost more then me on FPA. The question is if we can find what is the real value for the one the best NZ companies and if the market may have it wrong in this case?


Unless good manners is a subset of moral rights, your talking to the wrong guy, Mac. The only rights that interest me are tradeable.

However for a happy stay on this site it pays to observe one of the few housekeeping rules we actually follow around here.

DONT START A NEW THREAD ON AN EXISTING TOPIC.

The rationale is self-explanatory. If you look down only a few lines you will see an FPA thread is already in existence. If everyone posts on one thread there is a useful history of posts on the company.So always search first before starting a new topic. If you are not sure how to, read what PT told Chalky.

Moral rights ????

What is it with you Scots guys ...

[Macrob]

k1w1 again.:D As you see discussion in going in completely wrong direction. You have nothing to say about FPA but HAVE plenty typing skills.
When you refer to topic below -you see that thay lost the plot too and FPA deserve a new look from different angle. What is your price assumption for 1 year from now? $2?[:0] I have good memory and will remind you in time. My guess is well above $4.

[Gryffyn]

Wrong thread newbie! K1w1 has the right of it. Stick it in the right place and perhaps you'll get better discussion.

[k1w1]

right, thats enough, you thick Scottish tosser ,you may think that its the rest of the army that is out of step except for you,but you are wrong. There are people on that thread that your research notes wouldnt be of sufficient quality for them to consider using as asswipes.

Oh no, thats right I forgot, why is it we should let some johnny come lately waltz in and ignore the protocols on this site? Thats right,you reminded me that you have the moral right to do so "'cos you lost more on FPA than me"- and probably everyone else who posted on the existing FPA thread.

I suppose though that going down the gurgler with your head stuck up your ass does qualify as " a new look from a different angle" . So enlighten me more.

[Paper Tiger]

k1w1 - he signs himself macroB not MacRob so he is probably one of them and not one of them as you thought.
Best ignore it and hopefully it will go away and learn some manners.

Keep the wit flowing :)

[Macrob]

That is just perfect! Ask the question and you have such creature on your back. Since you have nothing to say go from this topic /my topic. For all others. What are competitor dishwashers done from? Since our raw materials are more expensive everyday and their are not. Or just k1w1 timewaters are at fault.

[whiteheron]

I have just posted on the thread "FPAs Profit Warning and Trading Opportunities " comments that I think are relevant to this thread as well

If you are interested I suggest that you have a look

[Macrob]

whiteheron
Senior Member



New Zealand
514 Posts
Posted - 23/02/2005 : 6:45:40 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have just had a good look at a FPA chart for the last year and from a TA point of view I am afraid it does not look good

The following factors would seem relevant;
A share price that looks cheap does not equal good
Share prices in a downtrend are not good
High value of NZ dollar , for companies like FPA , is not good
Huge international competition in the products you produce is not good
High wage rates in NZ v low wage rates in other countries producing the same sorts of products is not good
Too long doing the same thing is not good
All in all , not good

Just looking at the chart I would say that the bottom is still some way away yet

The school of hard knocks has taught me that the only prudent thing to do when any company you are invested in strikes a situation like FPA has is to exit very quickly and move on

I have no axe to grind as I am not involved in FPA in any way, those are my views for what they are worth


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fredbare


Thank you for input Whiteheron. I look at big picture.
1)Does FPA still do profit?
2) Nobody want to pay for more expensive whiteware. What about shares? Why to pay more?
Price/Earnings Ratio
AIA-27.4548
AIR-6.1410
AMP-14.2988
CAH- 7.9417
FPA -8.9762
FBU- 10.6729
FPH- 27.5067
GPG -13.9618
IFT -18.8976
INL -37.3152
POA -13.0823
RBD -13.0823
SKY - 36.9967
SKC- 20.7416
TEL -15.5793
WHS- 21.4286

[zacman]

we're not deaf!

z'man

[duncan macgregor]

jeez, that was some echo I think he must be one of you lot kiwi definately not from my side of the family. macdunk

[k1w1]

Wow WH, thats swingin 'em, I bet Mrs Whiteheron sleeps well at night

[Macrob]

sorry whiteheron, problem fixed.

[Steve]

Now, why don't we just DELETE this whole thread and forget about it?[?]:D

[whiteheron]

My postings have been deleted as suggested by Steve

I will delete this one too when the rest of you have deleted yours

[Macrob]

Should I delete my posts too? That will be something. All angry replays pointing to nothing.

[Macrob]

Somebody call me "newbie"?
Let see who is really newbie:
MAMBER SINCE
steve -28/05/2000
macrob -15/11/2001:D
gryffyn -23/12/2002
whiteheron -08/12/2003
duncan macgregor -23/06/2004
saintjohn -19/07/2004
placebo -05/04/2004
paper tiger -15/07/2004
k1w1 - 20/04/2004[:p]
[:p]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Macrob

Somebody call me "newbie"?
Let see who is really newbie:
MAMBER SINCE
steve -28/05/2000
macrob -15/11/2001:D
gryffyn -23/12/2002
whiteheron -08/12/2003
duncan macgregor -23/06/2004
saintjohn -19/07/2004
placebo -05/04/2004
paper tiger -15/07/2004
k1w1 - 20/04/2004[:p]
[:p]

Note to all:Be very wary of MACROB. He has the inside info on all of us...;)

[Paper Tiger]

quote:
Note to all:Be very wary of MACROB. He has the inside info on all of us...


If he spent as much time researching FPA as he did us then he could answer his original question himself.
I say this as a "newbie", I have only been here since last July. :D

[TerryA]

I think you are reading his user name incorrectly;

macro = a single instuction in a computer progarrme or "large", the opposite of micro.

B = what ever you think fits

[Macrob]

Bravo Terry, I don't care newbie or not but you are closer to the truth than seniors here. If they all are so inttelligent in reading stock data, charts as chat then not surprise market is heading in wrong direction. Sheeps follow their leader too.

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI, appologise i told you macrob is one of your mob nothing to do with macdunks. MACROB you might have joined up in 2001 but bend a bit or you will snap. We have old ladies on the forum people that act like old ladies, and spoiled brats to put up with. It is a great place to pick up new ideas, cross swords and have a gentle dig, and a laugh. Incidentely the sheep follow the goats, and the smart thing to do is head in the other direction. I will look forward to seeing you make a come back, with a real witty put down to some of your critics before this whole thread gets wiped. macdunk
ps start with KIWI he called you a scotty [yuck].

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Macrob

If they all are so inttelligent in reading stock data, charts as chat then not surprise market is heading in wrong direction.
...
Sheeps follow their leader too.

1) Sorry, but I just don't get this comment. The market is heading in the right direction IMHO.

2) My name is top of the list, does this make me the head GOAT that all the sheep follow?
:D:D:D

[Macrob]

I can't stand when one of last great nz manufacture companies suffer. They have modern products and technology, does profit, experience stuff, can compete on highly sophisticated US market. In this global market we have to export something. More complex and remanufactured products are much better then raw materials: wood, meat, coal. There is no chance for a big car, shipbuilding, electronics manufactures in this tiny country. Even IT is far behind due to infrastructure and education.:(

[Macrob]

My point is: If there is any logic in this market I will put all my spare money at $3.0* a share and wait for easy ride till $4.* or you can't see my posts anymore.

[duncan macgregor]

MACROB, getting back to the subject FPA have a snowballs chance in hell manufacturing in new Zealand. They are competing with people that pay less for the raw materials have no regard for patent rights and pay slave wages to a keen work force. That is the way most people want it judging from the flack i received when i told them that this will happen. We will end up in this country only manufacturing little items that fit in the cracks to suit the rich people. cheers macdunk
ps they have to eat we have them there.

[Placebo]

Macrob it seems your investment strategy is based on blind patriotism and unswerving loyalty in the face of ridiculous odds. You're backing the Kiwi battler (and the k1w1 battler ;)), and I say good luck to you.

Whether you make any money that way is a different question. Take off the rose-tinted specs and take a closer look at FPA. Perhaps you could start by reading their most recent profit downgrade warning

[Macrob]

I did my study and I am quite confident:
"Based on the trading results for the quarter ended December 2004, and the outlook for the remainder of the financial year, the Directors of Fisher &Paykel Appliances Holdings Limited advice that net profit after tax for the year ending 31 March 2005 is now forecast to be between $63 million and $68million. This is down approximately 14 per cent on the previous guidance given of between $75 million and $78 million."
In the worst case scenario they downgrade profits by mere $15M and same time shareholder are shredded of $263M
Total Issue 263,805,158

Market Capitalization $807,243,783 (@ 306) -today and $1.070.243 a three weeks ago
Doesn’t make sense for me that 15M profit downgrade makes 263M capital value loss.[:0] Any small, smart move form management and they are on the track again. Anyway product aim not to third world, we are not going to send dishwasher to Africa since they lack running water:).

[duncan macgregor]

MACROB, You sound like you have fallen in love. Your investing style, i will guess and say a straight out fundamentalist that is never wrong. Read the pages on share trader all the way back, and look at all the idiot posts coming from people who are never wrong backing dogs, and compare the sp then to what it is now, then listen to them telling us how right they are. Get a stop loss for petes sake, there is a possibility you are wrong. macdunk

[KW]

If FPA blamed rising steel prices for their past years poor performance, what are they going to do now that steel makers have to pay 72% more for iron ore? Obviously the massive price hike of the raw materials achieved this week will flow through to the steel makers and the manufacturers. Share prices of such companies are now plummeting across the world (whilst those of BHP and RIO are rising).
Head for the exit guys .....

[KW]

If FPA blamed rising steel prices for their past years poor performance, what are they going to do now that steel makers have to pay 72% more for iron ore? Obviously the massive price hike of the raw materials achieved this week will flow through to the steel makers and the manufacturers. Share prices of such companies are now plummeting across the world (whilst those of BHP and RIO are rising).
Head for the exit guys .....

[Steve]

KW, thanks for posting that again, just in case I missed it the FIRST time...[:p]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Macrob

I did my study and I am quite confident:
"Based on the trading results for the quarter ended December 2004, and the outlook for the remainder of the financial year, the Directors of Fisher &Paykel Appliances Holdings Limited advice that net profit after tax for the year ending 31 March 2005 is now forecast to be between $63 million and $68million. This is down approximately 14 per cent on the previous guidance given of between $75 million and $78 million."
In the worst case scenario they downgrade profits by mere $15M and same time shareholder are shredded of $263M
Total Issue 263,805,158

Market Capitalization $807,243,783 (@ 306) -today and $1.070.243 a three weeks ago
Doesn’t make sense for me that 15M profit downgrade makes 263M capital value loss.[:0] Any small, smart move form management and they are on the track again. Anyway product aim not to third world, we are not going to send dishwasher to Africa since they lack running water:).




Mate - something from the other thread -

In May 2003 when FPA was about to announce a $73M profit the shareprice was about $2.60

Now the profit is expected to be about $63M punters are 'shocked at the massive overreaction' and disappointed with $3.50

Profits at $63M .. heading towards $50M ... maybe $2.00 is where it should be

[pimpit]

well not sure about the wage, I have couple of mates who work at FPA as engineers, they are significantly underpaid than me!!!

[port hills]

quote:Originally posted by pimpit

well not sure about the wage, I have couple of mates who work at FPA as engineers, they are significantly underpaid than me!!!


Maybe you are significantly overpaid! ;)

[Bling_Bling]

Anyone have a valuation on FPA?

[bongo66]

F and P is going to have to redefine its current niche place in whiteware or find another niche alltogether. They CANNOT compete with the global players at a volume level.

Wheres their front loading washing machine, B

[whiteheron]

Bling Bling

The most accurate valuation is the price at which shares are currently changing hands

There may be broker or other valuations which say that the shares are worth this , that or something else but the market price is it
That is the maximum price that a seller can get and is the minimum price that a buyer must pay

You may think that that these are smart a--- comments , but they can not be argued against ; the market is king

If I were you I would take more notice of a price chart for the last year or so
This will tell you what has happened to the value , where it is at and will give a pretty good indication of where it is headed

I accept that I will most probably be criticised for the above comments , but I ask that you at least pay them some attention --- thinking about things a bit differently never hurts

[rotsevni]

White Heron, are you saying that the market price is driven by pure logic and zero emotion? If so, then "value" investing has no meaning. I am presuming that you are saying that todays market price is "a reality" not "the reality".

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by rotsevni

White Heron, are you saying that the market price is driven by pure logic and zero emotion? If so, then "value" investing has no meaning. I am presuming that you are saying that todays market price is "a reality" not "the reality".


In FPA's case I would say that market is driven by emotion ... plenty of positive stuff keeping the price higher where logic says it should be lower

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by KW

If FPA blamed rising steel prices for their past years poor performance, what are they going to do now that steel makers have to pay 72% more for iron ore? Obviously the massive price hike of the raw materials achieved this week will flow through to the steel makers and the manufacturers. Share prices of such companies are now plummeting across the world (whilst those of BHP and RIO are rising).
Head for the exit guys .....


KW WORTH WHILE POSTING TWICE

Punters should note though the reasons for declining profitability have only started to hurt over the last few months .... 1st half of year on par with last year ... so the $20M+ decline in profits this year all happening since September

Apply what they know now ... add in some more cost pressure like you mention .... and more competition ...... and heck you can see pretty bad results coming up in the 2006 year as well.

Easy to see them making less than $40M next year ..... so something less than 200 would not surprise.

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

Bling Bling

The most accurate valuation is the price at which shares are currently changing hands

There may be broker or other valuations which say that the shares are worth this , that or something else but the market price is it
That is the maximum price that a seller can get and is the minimum price that a buyer must pay

You may think that that these are smart a--- comments , but they can not be argued against ; the market is king

If I were you I would take more notice of a price chart for the last year or so
This will tell you what has happened to the value , where it is at and will give a pretty good indication of where it is headed

I accept that I will most probably be criticised for the above comments , but I ask that you at least pay them some attention --- thinking about things a bit differently never hurts




Really? Take the example of Richina yesterday and today - which is the right valuation? :D

[whiteheron]

rotsveni

No , I am certainly not saying that the market is driven by pure logic and zero emotion
Far from it

The market price at any point in time is a bit like a pot of soup , the net boiling down of a multitude of peoples thinking --- their hopes , aspirations , emotions , fears , greed , etc etc
From all of these factors there emerges a market price which of course can move around from day to day and sometimes minute to minute
A bit of a moving feast really

Value investing certainly has meaning --- an investor who can pick companies that the market undervalues can do extremely well
I think that it was Warren Buffet who said that in the short term the market is a voting machine and in the long term a weighing machine

I guess that this is pretty much as you have put it , that todays price is "a reality " not "the reality "

The way I interpret our comments I believe that we are in agreement
Correct ?

My comments were made with the intention of getting people thinking about market prices and what they mean

[Sharebroker]

So what's the answer, whiteheron?

Richina valuation - today's share price or yesterday's?

[duncan macgregor]

The price of anything is dictated by auction price at that moment in time. The sharemarket being a continuous auction gives out the value of the moment. Some things are quite worthless [gold and lots of the softer gems]but have an unrealistic worth. Works of art that are priceless, and ugly that i would throw out in a real world. The share market works the same way it is the perception of value fundamental value has nothing to do with the value, it is in the eye of the beholder. This company had a value yesterday, one today, and no doubt will get revalued every time someone buys or sell their shares. macdunk

[whiteheron]

winner69

Your second posting I understand , but I am perplexed about the last part of your first posting which states "plenty of positive stuff keeping the price higher where logic says it should be "

Why higher ? Whose logic ?

Maybe the end was cut off your centence

[winner69]

whiteheron ...oops

.. positive stuff (hope really ie those think the sun shines out of front loading dishwashers and this is jsut a blip on the radar for such a NZ icon and FPA has been oversold etc etc etc )and logic says it should be lower (left that word out)

essentially saying emotion is winning at the moment and keeping the share price up ... reality will win out in the end

[whiteheron]

Sharebroker

I am getting around to you slowly
I usually like to reply to each poster separately for two reasons , firstly to deal with points raised without getting them mixed up between posters and , secondly because I would have to win a gold medal for the worlds worst typist ; truly one finger stuff

On the question of Richina , yesterday 91c , today 99c , an increase of a remarkable 8.8 % in one day !

Yesterday the market said it was worth 91c
Indisputable as that is what was paid and received for shares that changed hands
That is what the market valued them at

Today the market said it was worth 99c
Again , indisputable as ---------the same

Which was the right valuation ?
You can not argue with the market --- it is the benchmark

But the wise value investor maybe could have done his research and put two and two together taking all known factors into account and added a few well grounded assumptions as well and come to the conclusion that the shares were inherently undervalued by the market , making a purchase at what appeared to be a very favourable price

And today , whoop de do , an upgraded profit forecast , the value investor who did his homework got "lucky " and now has an investment that the market values at considerably more than he paid for them --- funny that

I am continually trying to find companies that I consider are undervalued by the market and the funny thing is that the more I research the "luckier " I seem to get

So what is the answer ?
I will leave that to you , but I am sure you get my gist

PS And you never did divulge if you are in fact a Sharebroker

[whiteheron]

winner69

Now it all makes sense

I thought that was what had happened

[quartzpurple]

rumour says that the company is thinking to close the factory for a week or two because their products just cannot sell. It is just getting worse isn't it...

[Macrob]

One day computers and programs will be more involved in selling and buying on SE. Doing so automatically. Where there is place for emotions? Their program must be based on strict criteria. I will not be surprised if Buffet and others already relay on artificial intelligence. At such confrontation human have no chance i.e. chess. You may want to say that already use computers to plot charts and make calculation and help you make decision. Real breakthrough is when Mr. Computer make decisions and you are there help him i.e. interpreting news, feeding paper, cleaning screen, pressing reset button etc. The point am trying to do here that computer decision must be based strictly on financial data not emotions and the price will reflect company performance more closely. Result: similar input data give correlated result (price) since now two similar companies may present dramatically different value based on public perception.

[Paper Tiger]

MacroB: with a name like that you could be a computer virus.

I am sure we all look forward to the day when our computers are all running Microsoft StockEx Express, we can sit back relax safe in the knowledge that the programmers have got it right and it is making the right choices for us and Microsoft is the only share to buy.
Oh look, another critical update...

[Gryffyn]

Computers are already heavily involved. Major reprogramming after '87 crash to avoid the radical stop-loss selling that occurred. Get with the times chaps - the future is here now.

[small fish]

Q, I understand it could also be to use up long service leave accrued by many employees. I guess they wouldnt be doing though if they had plenty of orders.

[duncan macgregor]

SMALL FISH, FPA have to come up with products that will compete in a market place against people that pay less for labour, and materials. Giving people holidays might allow thinking time, but wont solve the problem. The only hope that they have is to keep coming up with better products. They did well in the past, but i cant see them doing well in the future, infact if they dont move to the slave labour and cheap material country, they will go under. Its only my opinion hope, i am wrong but my money definately wont be involved in what ever they do. MACDUNK

[small fish]

I totally agree McD. Also to get china or some other cheap labour country up to speed with all problems ironed out I am sure would take considerable time. Every day that goes by where they dont pursue these opportunities they're falling further behind.

Mac Dunk FPA has been working onthe reputation it built up making american products under license. I have yet to see one of its own products that has been any good under heavy work.

[kiwigold]

[quote]Mac Dunk FPA has been working onthe reputation it built up making american products under license. I have yet to see one of its own products that has been any good under heavy work.

Then I suggest you ask some of the undoubtedly 100's of thousands of kiwi's and Australians who grew up using F&P appliances over the last 60 odd years, you petty old fart Enigma, there's nothing wrong with the quality of their appliances ,certainly a lot better than some of the Aussie (Simpson comes to mind) and chinese (Heier ,recycled tin can's) made rubbish.........

[neopole]

well said kiwigold,
FPA has been nothing but a success story for eons. now it has its first profit warning(still a reasonable profit expected) and folks start trashing it products. F and P both A and H are product inovators and always will be, if you want cheap metal whiteware from a 3rd world country....just remember the first jap cars of the seventies!!! its my opinion that folks out there know that water, cheap quality, and cheap labour = rust.

traders trash
investors ramp

[duncan macgregor]

KIWIGOLD, Sorry to differ but i buy simpson for my houses i found them more reliable. Yesterday is gone today and tomorrow is what counts. macdunk

[kiwigold]

MacDunk , thats just your scottish ancestry coming out , Simpson=cheap ,say no more .:)

[whiteheron]

Sharebroker

What was , is , and will be the value of Richina ?
I see it traded today 96c to $1

So what is Richinas valuation ?
I am sure that you have an opinion and I would dearly like to hear it

But what I would really like to know is what it will be on Monday , or even better still in say six , twelve , eighteen or twenty four months time
If you can tell me that then we can really be cooking with gas as it were

My initial comments were made with the idea of getting a discussion going on the comparison between market value and fundamental value , if in fact such a thing exists
What I got was a series of " please explains " and I am not sure that I did that so well , but if it got people thinking about value / valuation and what they mean then I suppose that something was achieved

[port hills]

quote:Originally posted by neopole

well said kiwigold,
FPA has been nothing but a success story for eons. now it has its first profit warning(still a reasonable profit expected) and folks start trashing it products. F and P both A and H are product inovators and always will be, if you want cheap metal whiteware from a 3rd world country....just remember the first jap cars of the seventies!!! its my opinion that folks out there know that water, cheap quality, and cheap labour = rust.

traders trash
investors ramp



If the chinese can do with whiteware what the Japs did with cars then look out FPA in 10 years they could be history. [xx(]

[duncan macgregor]

WHITEHERON, it is pointless getting a discussion going peoples minds are made up. Try and tell them the price of anything is todays price at an auction. Or better still try and show them a new system or perhaps the political party or church that they support is wrong. Ignorance is bliss dont try to hard you are wasting your time. MACDUNK

[whiteheron]

MACDUNK

Yes , maybe I am not using my time to best advantage ( for me ) by getting involved in these discussions but I do enjoy it and it can be mentally stimulating --- keeps the old brain working
On the other hand it can be frustrating and as I am an incredibly slow typist it takes a lot of time --- time that I could be using to research and search out new leads , something that I have found to be a bit tougher the last few weeks
But I am not complaining as for some time now I have been achieving around 5 % to 6 % raw return per month , so I must be doing something right

I have developed what for me is a workable system , a bit of a mixture between FA and TA
The FA is important at the point of entry I believe as it ( in almost all cases ) keeps me away from the dogs
I know that money can be made on dogs using TA alone but I think why follow dogs with the risks that attach to them when I can just as easily trade in winners with much less likelyhood of downside

Once a share has been purchased I use TA a fair bit , but I still like to keep my finger on the pulse as to the overall direction of the market and various market sectors and what is happening with the company eg announcements , broker reports and any other information I can lay my hands on , although I treat broker reports with caution

To do well I believe it is necessary to be ahead of the market and to continually evaluate where a companys share price is most likely headed
Once I lose confidence in where I think a company is headed I am out quick smart to move on to ( hopefully ) better opportunities
I always try to follow winners and quit losers
One has to be ruthless , no use marrying a stock when you have a wife !

As I think you know , I am essentially a trader with less than a handful of long term holds
I started out as a long term holder with just a few held for trading , but the trading bug got hold of me and I now trade on average a couple of times each day
It is all pretty interesting stuff really , a great hobby that also can produce some pretty pleasing financial rewards ( for spending on holidays and in due course educating the grandchildren )

That is pretty much me and my approach

I recognise that we all have different circumstances and aspirations and that our approaches are different as well
Nothing wrong with that , as long as what we do works for us

[Macrob]

That only confirm what said about smart management. We are back on the track.
==============================================
DISTRIBUTION CHANGES FOR FISHER & PAYKEL APPLIANCES New Zealand's favourite brand of appliances will soon be available throughNoel Leeming stores throughout New Zealand as part of Fisher & Paykel'sexclusive dealing arrangement.
========================================
and tradeing 345 already today !

[Placebo]

Whiteheron perhaps your next "investment" could be in a typing course... :D

[duncan macgregor]

come back from looking at a brand new beach buggy fitted out with a chinese motor, that is an exact replica of a honda 250cc made in china. The funny part of it is the brand new motor had no name on it and honda parts would fit. Great little fun machine half price to anything else, and guess what guys? the honda price for a replacement motor and gearbox is higher than this whole machine.
HELLO NZ who needs patents. FPA are sitting ducks. macdunk

[ananda77]

duncan macgregor, you disappoint me to join the loud-crowd at the beach with your buggy-lawnmower.

Why not buy a kite-surfer or wind-surfer (Made in China if you want) and have some real fun!!!

[Westie]

Perhaps those discussing the "real value" of FPA's shares might find it more constructive if you defined what "value" you were talking about. The term "value" is misleading if it isn't qualified by a descriptive adjective. The following is taken from a text:

Three concepts of value as applied to common stock must be distinguished: accounting value, economic value, and market value. (1) Accounting value is also known as book value or net worth.
(2) Economic or investment value is based on discounted cash flow is also known as intrinsic value.
(3) So-called market value is also known as market capitalization of equity and is equal to market price per share multiplied by the number of shares outstanding.

A less ambiguous distinction is between deep value and surface value. Deep value is investment value based primarily on economic value and buttressed by accounting value, quality and other aspects of value independent of market price. Surface value is a misnomer -- it is not really value but rather market price, usually expressed as a ratio either with accounting items such as earnings, dividends, net worth, and sales, or with growth rate. Surface value is analogous to unit pricing of fungible commodities by number, by volume, and by weight, for comparison shopping without regard to quality.

I'd probably add a fourth "value", being private market value - the value of a company if each of its parts were independent, publicly traded entities, often used in takeovers and also known as break-up value
and a fifth "value" being liquidation value - the net amount that could be realized by selling the assets of a firm after paying the debt

[kiwigold]

Macdunk you really are full of **** and no help at all,on this thread anyway..........and now some auckland twerp is writing a thesis on the definition of value.
Macrob don't count your chickens old chap.There's going to be ongoing downward pressure on this share until all the bottomfeeders and nervous nitwits are out of it.Todays annoucement isn't a cure all ,but it is a step in the right direction as a few thousand more units sold in NZ can only help the bottomline for FPA and will reduce the crippling effect of rising raw material costs and the high exchange rate.At least the shareprice is heading upwards for now and not down to the levels that some of the posters here were suggesting

[duncan macgregor]

WESTIE there is only value is in the eye of the beholder. I value a painting by picasso as rubbish other people tell me they are priceless.ANANDA i didnt say i bought it i only gave a practical example of what FPA can expect. I need a machine to take my latest invention out for a test run. [AN UNDERWATER SUBMARINE TO DRAG A LONG LINE OUT IF YOU MUST KNOW]. macdunk

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Macrob

That only confirm what said about smart management. We are back on the track.
==============================================
DISTRIBUTION CHANGES FOR FISHER & PAYKEL APPLIANCES New Zealand's favourite brand of appliances will soon be available throughNoel Leeming stores throughout New Zealand as part of Fisher & Paykel'sexclusive dealing arrangement.
========================================
and tradeing 345 already today !


Nothing smart about FPAs management here Macrob. PRG dumped them years ago because of FPAs anti competitive nature in wanting an exclusive deal. I take it this new deal is a similar one.

Dumb Noel Leeming management i would say. Successful retailing lies in choice and quality at a good price. Noel Leeming taking F and Ps crap on gives them neither.

It will come out in the wash(not with an F and P though:D) Bongo

Bongo they did have Noel Leeming and Bond & Bond one chain sold F&P and the other sold the rest but F&P did not even like that arrangement seems they must have gone back to it. Harvey Norman pull out must hurt.

[kiwigold]

Hey Bongo, you're a real hypocrite calling FPA's products crap aren't you? I recall you disclosing that you were once an FPA shareholder and I see that they were one of your sharepicks in the 2004 contest too. Kind of ruin's your credibility criticising them on this forum does'nt it:):)

[Macrob]

Hi macdunk. You shouldn’t mention that loudly at our forum
==================================
I need a machine to take my latest invention out for a test run. [AN UNDERWATER SUBMARINE TO DRAG A LONG LINE OUT IF YOU MUST KNOW]. macdunk
=====================================
Before you finish your project there will be Chinese replica already :DI hope that your submarine will not be used for immigration invasion.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by kiwigold

Hey Bongo, you're a real hypocrite calling FPA's products crap aren't you? I recall you disclosing that you were once an FPA shareholder and I see that they were one of your sharepicks in the 2004 contest too. Kind of ruin's your credibility criticising them on this forum does'nt it:):)


Traded FPA, never had it LT as I knew the layers of the onion were falling off. Did you?:D

B,:)

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by kiwigold

Hey Bongo, you're a real hypocrite calling FPA's products crap aren't you? I recall you disclosing that you were once an FPA shareholder and I see that they were one of your sharepicks in the 2004 contest too. Kind of ruin's your credibility criticising them on this forum does'nt it:):)


Traded FPA, never had it LT as I knew the layers of the onion were falling off. Did you?:D

B,:)


This will not be allowed to pass - you are full of it, b69, that you are not even aware of it any more.

Kiwigold caught you fair and square - admit it and let's move on.

Otherwise, let's bring up RBD and WHS - and your swingless propensity.

[Macrob]

Are there any takeover chances on the horizon? With the price below 2.90 and historical support at 2.70 we are close to the bottom. Definitely company like FP must be worth something, even for scrap metal or for their assets.[?]

[Paper Tiger]

Getting a little desperate Macrob?

I can just imagine the directors taking the company down to the scrap-heap.
"What will you give us for this?"
"Well the price of used manufacturing companies is down, give us 50 and I'll take it off your hands".

NTA is just over $2 a share according to the NZX website.

Pleasant dreams
Paper Tiger

[Guru]

Just released into NZ are F&Ps latest models of the Nemo and Nautilus dishwashers which are made in Germany but 'badged' with F&P.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by kiwigold

Hey Bongo, you're a real hypocrite calling FPA's products crap aren't you? I recall you disclosing that you were once an FPA shareholder and I see that they were one of your sharepicks in the 2004 contest too. Kind of ruin's your credibility criticising them on this forum does'nt it:):)


Traded FPA, never had it LT as I knew the layers of the onion were falling off. Did you?:D

B,:)


This will not be allowed to pass - you are full of it, b69, that you are not even aware of it any more.

Kiwigold caught you fair and square - admit it and let's move on.

Otherwise, let's bring up RBD and WHS - and your swingless propensity.


Goodness SB , do you hold a large swathe of FPA. I got out, at the top SP as FPA prospects were numbered so therefore the SP swing was not a meaningless one.

I was right:D

Lost nothing on RBD and still hold WHS[:p]

B

[bongo66]

Id be interested in sub 2 bucks. This SHARE could be a winter profit warning prospect...

[duncan macgregor]

BONGO, Do i read you right?. You lost nothing on RBD. You ramped that share all the way down telling all and sundry on share chat for years how good it was. Or maybe its me thats wrong and that was only a meaningless swing. macdunk

[bongo66]

[quote]Originally posted by duncan macgregor

BONGO, Do i read you right?. You lost nothing on RBD. You ramped that share all the way down telling all and sundry on share chat for years how good it was. Or maybe its me thats wrong and that was only a meaningless swing. macdunk
[/quote/)

Macca,I have already admitted i was wrong about RBD. But having purchased shares in the company from 65 odd cents right up to $2.20 (in the IPO)most of them bought at the lower end, collecting the healthy divs for 5 years and getting out at 1.25(doing a Snoopy?:D) Bongo was the winner on the day...

Management just cant get it right!!

B

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Id be interested in sub 2 bucks. This SHARE could be a winter profit warning prospect...




In good company Bongo - Deutsche Bank visited FPA recently and downgraded FPA to a sell .. and noted that when the F05 results are released in May they expect a further profit warning for F06.

Based on all the things we know - FPA no longer that innovative with competition catching up, win't be able to maintain past price premiums, raw material prices up slowing demand etc etc

All this in Australasia will more than offset good growth in the US

F05 has been disappointing but F06 will be tougher.

Summarised here
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=1&id=1673

I'll stick to my F06 earnings forecast of something below $50M (even with heaps coming from the finance arm)

Thats 19 cents a share so do your own sums and ask whether a 225 shareprice is unreasonable

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Id be interested in sub 2 bucks. This SHARE could be a winter profit warning prospect...




In good company Bongo - Deutsche Bank visited FPA recently and downgraded FPA to a sell .. and noted that when the F05 results are released in May they expect a further profit warning for F06.

Based on all the things we know - FPA no longer that innovative with competition catching up, win't be able to maintain past price premiums, raw material prices up slowing demand etc etc

All this in Australasia will more than offset good growth in the US

F05 has been disappointing but F06 will be tougher.

Summarised here
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=1&id=1673

I'll stick to my F06 earnings forecast of something below $50M (even with heaps coming from the finance arm)

Thats 19 cents a share so do your own sums and ask whether a 225 shareprice is unreasonable



The edge F and P had was that they had a niche. They marketed occasionally innovative, sometimes crappy product that they sold at a premium to the mass brands. They no longer belong in that niche, other mass-produced brands have entered FPAs markets and as we know FPA is not a true mass-producer in a global sense so cant compete.

Perhaps they even saw the writing on the wall. Buying the finance arm is cushioning their fall.

Maybe they can do what several US car companies do. Loose money on their produced goods but make it all back buy selling finance so consumers can pay for the stuff.

2 bucks seems fair, B

[Macrob]

The only good news about FP in the time when whole share market is nose-diving, is that they did just that already. Sitting comfortably on the ground make perfect haven for those escaping downfall. Maybe out of favor for now but technically still stronger then most above.
........................FPA.........-------...............WHS.....TEL......AIA
Earnings/Share -----35.6500 cents-----------19.51---41.31-----8.47
Price/Earnings Ratio--8.1907----------------19.73---14.81-----24.91
NTA/Share-------------203.5900 (NZD) cents-118.56---67.40-----47.99

[Paper Tiger]

I don't want to dis-illusion you Macrob, but FPA has fallen 9.38% in the general downturn since 9-March despite the big wipeout at the beginning of Feb.
With the pervailing perception of the market which does not look to change in the immediate future it will suffer like most other stocks.
Most sellers are not going to doing fundamental analysis before getting out.

[duncan macgregor]

FPA are in the forefront of a complaint against them by HAIER at the free trade agreement talks with china. HAIER alledge that FPA breach all the rules of free trade with their exclusive only deals with certain shops. This only happens in NZ, and is looked on as unfair to free competition. I expect their exclusive only deals to be a stumbleing block,and will have to go with FPA competing on a level playing field. macdunk

[Cooper]

I agree Macdunk. IMO the agreements will be sacrificed for "the greater good".

[Macrob]

"Concerns about the health of the global economy have caused metal prices to fall, hitting local resource stocks that had buoyed the Australian market this year."
---------------------------------------------------------
If bad news are actully good for some manufactures?

[truedragon]

The metal price drop will benefit all whiteware manufactures.
The key question to ask is that if FPA still has the lead in innovation, if so, it will survive in this highly competitive market, if not, it will be crushed by the bigger competitors with much cheaper manufacturing base.

DISC: Hold none

[clearasmud]

Oh dear FPA reaches 2 year low on an up day.
I'm glad I'm not long this stock.
$2.50 soon ?
Ouch

[bongo66]

Getting close to my sub $2 target. A loss next year would mean a revaluation though...:D

[winner69]

If it got to $2 bongo would you really want it?

I still go with my sub $2.25 after another earnings downgrade sometime before the full year announcement

[Macrob]

If there was plane crashing into Sky Tower that I didn't hear about? The last I can remember was Semptember 11. You are right, I am a little bit nervous after loosing 50% equity in FP and still don't know why (?)

[Macrob]

I wish Dr Cullen could bring that 5 bln dollars and dump and loose all that money at least on our sharemarket not overeseas.

[pimpit]

will it go under 300c towards end of the year?

[icehot]

You mean will it reach $4.00 by the end of the year?

[pimpit]

MACD talks for it self.

[CrossTrainer]

It is basically a very solid company with excellent products and good sales opportunities and so I fail to see why the share price is declining.

[duncan macgregor]

crosstrainer, good solid company with no future in NZ. Move to china or go under. macdunk

[CrossTrainer]

Duncan - Are you talking about production or sales?

[icehot]

That's right - move everything to China, including our Air NZ engineering division, yacht building industry and dairy cows to survive. Whist we are at it, move the people too.

[duncan macgregor]

Free trade thats what you all want isnt it?. Cows sheep forestry cheap imports only thing is unless you are a farmer you might as well bugger off. macdunk

[icehot]

Free trade will liberate NZers to do the things that we are good at and can add value - otherwise, we will relive the Muldoon years of high inflation, wasteful investments in manufacturing plants, immigration of unskilled South Pacific workers to man said plants, shonky products and services, social welfarism on a grand scale and Think Big BU LLS HIT.

Free trade will be good for NZ.

[duncan macgregor]

ice hot, you lot cant compete at anything other than in the rural industries. macdunk

[icehot]

So? What's your point, MacD? What's wrong with the rural industry? You do what you are good at and can keep improving - no point being a great tennis player and try and win a golf tournament. I hope you are not trying to insult what we as a country is good at doing.

[duncan macgregor]

icehot, The point being most of you lot in a cold harsh reality check, are found wanting. The things that you are good at requires a small population, to keep competetive. The other people in manufacturing related industries might as well for the good of the country bugger off in the system you advocate. macdunk

[icehot]

Well, that shut him up. MacD sounds like one of those who lamented NZ not being in the new paradigm in 2000 of the Dot-Coms. History showed we were right to stick to the real stuff.

[Seti]

Macdunk, the impression I get from you is that manufacturing anywhere outside of China can't survive. They can make a lot of cheap stuff but they can't make everything. A certain proportion of consumers will always buy on quality alone. Also their growing economy brings with it calls for a better standard of living, one which must be paid for by growing wage demands.

And innovation is what underpins FPA, in fact sales in the US are up a whopping 70%.

[Nevl]

hi I have no problem with hiving the manufacturing off to China as long as the profits come back here. Let the chinese work to make it while we design and sell it and use the profits to buy what we want. Who said we had to do the dirty work. Lets stick to farming. With a rapidly expanding and wealthier global population it is not as though the demand for food will drop. Also just recently good news from the Yanks on farm tariffs and Mandelson from the EU is draging them to the party. Agriculture is the future along with yatchs and sailing and everything else but we do need to balance our current account. the best way of doing this is to get into making profits overseas and bringing them back here. After all 25% of our current account defict is due to our banks making Aussies richer!!! Lets get the Chinese to make us richer.

[icehot]

Well said, folks. MacD looks at the world with a half-empty glass whilst we all do the opposite.

[duncan macgregor]

Icehot, wrong my friend. I am an optimist 1st and a realist 2nd. Work in as many countries as i have you might think that your glass is not half full, but overflowing with good fortune. I would hate you to get a false idea of what you might end up with when you get that level playing field. macdunk

[icehot]

MacD, NZ unilaterally cut/abolished farm subsidies and remove import restrictions in the 1980s. NZers, especially the farmers, screamed that NZ would disappear from the world as the govt had tipped the playing field against us. Guess what actually happened? NZ agriculture became super competitive and we have been seeing the benefits - BIG time. Uneconomic industries like TV and car assembly were got rid off and prices of 'luxurious'goods like cars, TVs and clothings dropped - living standards rose.

There will always be losers and winners in any trade agreements - that's life. You are under-estimating the abilities of NZers to innovate and compete. Examples? Yachts, movies (remember LOTR?, wines, technology (Navman, Peace, Qantum TMS to name 3) and booming tourism are but a few examples.

You are FRIGHTENED of China, aren't you?

[pimpit]

not so good today 13c down...

[CrossTrainer]

Although I had high hopes for Appliances it looks as though Healthcare (FPH) is a much better bet.

[bongo66]

Heard a rumour of possible bad news coming for this one...

[metro]

and why bother posting if its just a "rumour" - your words

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by metro

and why bother posting if its just a "rumour" - your words


Just talk in the market that something bad may be on the horizon For FPA.

Bad choice of words perhaps. Might be true...

B

[icehot]

Sounding exactly just like Bongo66's 'Panic at WHS HQ' rumours.

You have no credibility, B66. KFC and Pizza Hut anyone?

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


Sounding exactly just like Bongo66's 'Panic at WHS HQ' rumours.

You have no credibility, B66. KFC and Pizza Hut anyone?


Just passing on what I heard Icehot. Seems FPA has lost around 20% of its SP in a couple of weeks and the rumour IS going around and i wouldnt be surprized if they had another negative annoncement to made re their profit...

Hope its a busy xmas for the WHS for they need it, might stop head office from running around like headless chooks.

B:D

[duncan macgregor]

Bongo, as far as i am concerned, post all the rumours. Fpa are heading down hill rumours or not. if you hear something broadcast it, let us all then decide if there is substance to it or not without calling you out about it. To rubbish an opinion is to deny that you can never be wrong. macdunk

[icehot]

Sp went back up today - just like with WHS when Bongo goes 'rumour-mongering.'

KFC or pizza anyone? Courtesy of B66's big push on RBD a couple of years ago. [^]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

[quote]Just passing on what I heard Icehot. Seems FPA ...

Huh? So what did you hear?

"Hey Bongo, there's talk in the market that FPA is in the cowpat."?

Or something with legs?

I heard somebody say yesterday that NZR are destined for more greatness given their monopoly position in NZ refining, etc.

People who buy on rumors are really kicking into the wind (which is OK if you're happy to miss the posts).

[icehot]

There's rumours that B66 choked overnight on a KFC thigh piece so RBD will be sued. Since FPA supplies some equipment to RBD, there's bad news coming on FPA. And fatff at FPA HQ are panicking - just as WHS's HQ staff were panicking about the last results which resulted in WHS sp going up.

[metro]

Bongo66's downramping rumour mongering is becoming a very strong BUY signal :D

Loading my FPA buy order with my online broker now !! :D

Bongo's word is good enough for me to BUY :D:D

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by metro

Bongo66's downramping rumour mongering is becoming a very strong BUY signal :D

Loading my FPA buy order with my online broker now !! :D

Bongo's word is good enough for me to BUY :D:D




Don't be silly. You need to wait for the kiwi$ to weaken against the United States peso.

[winner69]

I refer back to my earlier posts and still believe that this years earnings will struggle to reach $40M ..... thats about 15 cents a share

Nothing has fundametally changed since then, in particular market conditions, currency, raw material prices etc etc

Not as bearish as bongo with his $2 but $2.25 is likely I feel

Half Year announcement November 10 will be interesting but with more down days than up days lately and more than 10% down over the last month one has to think that somethings up

[Phaedrus]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/FPA1031001.gif

[winner69]

Winner moves the market

Posts at 2.46 what a dog and price at 312

couple of hours later and a buying spree of 500,000 odd shares and it is 10 cents higher

Must be good news coming after all ... must have an open mind