WRI - the MacDunk factor

[warthog]

Since our animated Scottish friend MacDunk has been commentating on WRI, I have noted an approximate inverse correlation between his negative commentary and the actual share-price.

Surely now WRI must be right at edge of MacDunk's radar?

Disc: no WRI (unfortunately)

Forgot to add SP as of today: 215 and note the rogue factor, and that is MacDunk's lack of admiration for GEN, a large chunk of which WRI has dumped. NB: the SP of both companies has risen (GEN to 49).

Disc: hold GEN (fortunately)

[duncan macgregor]

WATHOG, Well done but dont you think macdunk got it wrong thread would have sufficed.
still your friend macdunk.
discl dont hold gen thank god.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

WATHOG, Well done but dont you think macdunk got it wrong thread would have sufficed.
still your friend macdunk.
discl dont hold gen thank god.


NOT NECESSARILY MacDunk because it's not over until the fat lady does her bit.

[craic]

Thanks folks! You've just added another five cents to the price and it is trying to rain outside. Glad I bumped my holding back up to 25,000 in December. All is forgiven fat boy and PGG is spiking a bit at present and might well be his next takeover? I don't mind - it's all just money.

[duncan macgregor]

WARTHOG, Am i allowed to come back now that i have a bit of time, and defend my stance With WRI and GEN and the positions i took and why.
I bought WRI at about 76c by memory, and sold at $1-30 in july or aug 2003. I wrote on sharechat that they were going bad, the management were dumb etc {you know the way i go on}. Snoopy and i had a few goes about it, with GEN being one of my arguments on the dumb buy. The shares dropped to a few cents above a dollar. I meanwhile was busy doubleing my money with HQP, poa, pot, to mention a couple. WRI as i said was the worst result of all the rural companies for that period. I would never buy a share with cushing on the board, so WKL was out. I did a short trade with ALF, made 3pc had a pile of pgg, had a nice ride up, and sold most of them in jan.
I did get WRI exactly right up to the point where norgate jumped in.
I think he paid to much for WKL, and i think WRI shares are over priced at the moment, with very little prospect of trending up. I also think we are in for more fun and games with PGG, ALF, and RDI, that is what i would look out for in the future. ALF is the take over target, with pgg coming north, and joining up with fonterra that is my wild guess for this year, norgate has done his dash.
Incidentely when did you buy GEN, and why are you riding them down?.
ALL THE BEST MACDUNK

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

WARTHOG, Am i allowed to come back now that i have a bit of time, and defend my stance With WRI and GEN and the positions i took and why.
I bought WRI at about 76c by memory, and sold at $1-30 in july or aug 2003. I wrote on sharechat that they were going bad, the management were dumb etc {you know the way i go on}. Snoopy and i had a few goes about it, with GEN being one of my arguments on the dumb buy. The shares dropped to a few cents above a dollar. I meanwhile was busy doubleing my money with HQP, poa, pot, to mention a couple. WRI as i said was the worst result of all the rural companies for that period. I would never buy a share with cushing on the board, so WKL was out. I did a short trade with ALF, made 3pc had a pile of pgg, had a nice ride up, and sold most of them in jan.
I did get WRI exactly right up to the point where norgate jumped in.
I think he paid to much for WKL, and i think WRI shares are over priced at the moment, with very little prospect of trending up. I also think we are in for more fun and games with PGG, ALF, and RDI, that is what i would look out for in the future. ALF is the take over target, with pgg coming north, and joining up with fonterra that is my wild guess for this year, norgate has done his dash.
Incidentely when did you buy GEN, and why are you riding them down?.
ALL THE BEST MACDUNK


I'm less interested in all the peripheral stuff than the topic here, which is WRI. I'm glad you made one hundred-fold returns over the last week. That's great.

My original observation is that your criticism of WRI seems to have a healthy influence on the shareprice. Now you've said it is overpriced with very little in the way of prospects, my very basic theory based on limited observation will be tested! If it is correct, WRI should be at $2.50 by mid-year!

GEN? 22 December @ $0.44.

[duncan macgregor]

WARTHOG, my muddy smelly friend you never answered my questiom. How long have you been riding GEN down and why are you holding?. macdunk

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

WARTHOG, my muddy smelly friend you never answered my questiom. How long have you been riding GEN down and why are you holding?. macdunk


Ah yes Herr MacDunk, your light shines brightly in my eyes.

In answer to your questiom, it's been more of a see-saw actually. You have the dates and price - look at the chart yourself. Why GEN? Because I think that the value of the IP at current SP levels may just be recognised by the market at some point in the near future. I'm also optimistic that their burn rate will be brought under control. However, like you, I don't think there's much milage in anti-fart grass for cows. Luckily, most of the momentum behind that disappeared with black-leather-jacketed Mr Freeth.

But don't you think that your questions about GEN are better suited to one of the GEN threads? :D

[Placebo]

Warthog: Perhaps MacDunk is to WRI as Mr P Yu was to AIA!:D

[Nev]

accepted the $4.70 for the WKL shares instead of taking WRI shares + cash. :(

Wasn't aware they take off the 23c div WKL paid earlier - stupid

[duncan macgregor]

It is good to be able to go back now that with hindesigh, We can see who is closer to being right or wrong. I rubbished WRI for buying into gen, more or less missed the rise in ALF other than a small trade. I said that WRI paid to much for WKL and said that WRI was lagging behind its competitors. I bought PGG for the long term. To update. WRI in my area are not keeping pace with RDI who are killing them according to the farmers i speak to. So much so that i wont consider buying their shares because i see a bad announcement looming. Hope i get proved wrong but the custom that i see in the two stores in my area would hardly pay the rent. Macdunk

[ragwort]

MacDunk

What you have to understand is that the rural supplies and services industry is very fragmented in terms of their geographical strengths. What I mean from this is it is well known within the industry what areas of NZ are "strongholds" of the various competitors. For example, PGG are very strong in the SI, W&K in the Hawkes Bay area, Allied farmers in the Taranaki, Wrightson in the King Country etc. If you are struggling to compete in a particular area, you have the choice to either dedicate further resources to that area in an attempt to improve your results, settle for the results you are getting but still maintaining a presence, or completely withdraw from that area and leave the local market share completely to the opposition. It is very hard (and somewhat foolish IMO) to base your opinions on the observations of store traffic in one particular area. There are other areas where WRI have the market sewn up. Hope this makes sense without getting into any detail.

[duncan macgregor]

Ragwort, I understand what you are saying, But when a company is making no effort to even compete on equal terms in a given area, then i see them failing. Example. My neighbour rears calves, and buys about six bags of milk powder in a season. Because they want one bag at a time, WRI wont discount it unless they buy the lot all at once.
RDI lets them pay for one bag at a time in the full knowledge that it is one of six with no questions asked. I think WRI will drop in price and that is a very honest observation. macdunk

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor
I think WRI will drop in price and that is a very honest observation. macdunk



MacPunk, can you teach me how to observe something in the future today? I think it would be helpful for my investing.:D

[stephen]

K9, surely a man can observe his own thoughts?

;)

[K9]

Hmmmm...let me think about it


No, impossible ...Mac Dumb is a fencepost

[duncan macgregor]

K9, Are you going to start your childish nonsense against me the same as you do with others or are you open for honest debate?. I cant be bothered reading most of your rubbish, and that is being honest. How many times have you been banned now?. If you want to discuss anything with me learn some manners. If you dont have any then i am willing to teach you a few for free. MACDUNK

[Dough Boy]

I also dis-recommend WRI, though were owner in past from when it was in its lows of 30cents and got out at $1.25. Of course could have made more if had held until $2.00 well beyond what I consider far value for a cyclical rural business. An when they got Mr. Norgate and started talking of building an 'Empire' that only confirmed my decision. Now many will say that my decision was wrong because I sold before the peak, but my decision was based on the current value of the company and the likely future for farm commodities business.

Just because a [u]share</u> price continues up beyond the point of sell does not necessarily reflect that the [u]company</u> is of greater value than at the point of selling the share.

I stand on McD side in this arguement concerning hindsight.

[morv]

k9,whats with all the garbage that trails your
posts thru out the forum self importance
or just space wasteing

[airedale]

Is he called K9 because he is barking mad or merely foaming at the mouth.

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

K9, Are you going to start your childish nonsense against me the same as you do with others or are you open for honest debate?. I cant be bothered reading most of your rubbish, and that is being honest. How many times have you been banned now?. If you want to discuss anything with me learn some manners. If you dont have any then i am willing to teach you a few for free. MACDUNK



that`s rich coming from a guy that wants to punch everyones lights out.

MacDunk, I honestly and openly think that you are a **** investor and the more you speak the more obvious it becomes...you couldn`t teach me sheit

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by K9


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

K9, Are you going to start your childish nonsense against me the same as you do with others or are you open for honest debate?. I cant be bothered reading most of your rubbish, and that is being honest. How many times have you been banned now?. If you want to discuss anything with me learn some manners. If you dont have any then i am willing to teach you a few for free. MACDUNK



that`s rich coming from a guy that wants to punch everyones lights out.

MacDunk, I honestly and openly think that you are a **** investor and the more you speak the more obvious it becomes...you couldn`t teach me sheit


Grow up K9.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

K9, Are you going to start your childish nonsense against me the same as you do with others or are you open for honest debate?. I cant be bothered reading most of your rubbish,


So you admit that you read some of his rubbish :)


quote:and that is being honest. How many times have you been banned now?. If you want to discuss anything with me learn some manners. If you dont have any then i am willing to teach you a few for free. MACDUNK


When are you going to learn that feeding the animals is not an interesting idea?

YOUR OLD MATE WARTHOG

Macdunk: Now class, realise that I'm not here to teach you anything, but
Macdunk: er, sit up straight anyway, and listen up.
Macdunk: Um, TA and FA, that's the business.
Macdunk: Oh, and remember the tea lady, and the brand of biscuits she buys
Macdunk: Make a note who makes the biscuits, and buy their shares
Macdunk: You at the back of the class - sit up and pay attention
Macdunk: Not that I'm trying to teach you anything. It's up to you
Macdunk: Teach a man to fish and, um, he might not go hungry.
Macdunk: (hic) HQP. Got in at 10 cents, out at $1. Suck on that Snoopy. (hic)
Macdunk: Learn some manners!!
Macdunk: Class dismissed!

:D

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by Dough Boy

Grow up K9.




piss off you boring lump of dry flour...at least MacDump has a bit of humour

you really are a dry twit aren't you[xx(]

[Elise]

quote:
Macdunk: Now class, realise that I'm not here to teach you anything, but
Macdunk: er, sit up straight anyway, and listen up.
Macdunk: Um, TA and FA, that's the business.
Macdunk: Oh, and remember the tea lady, and the brand of biscuits she buys
Macdunk: Make a note who makes the biscuits, and buy their shares
Macdunk: You at the back of the class - sit up and pay attention
Macdunk: Not that I'm trying to teach you anything. It's up to you
Macdunk: Teach a man to fish and, um, he might not go hungry.
Macdunk: (hic) HQP. Got in at 10 cents, out at $1. Suck on that Snoopy. (hic)
Macdunk: Learn some manners!!
Macdunk: Class dismissed!

:D


haha ... one of the best I've read in a long time... nice one, Warthog[^]

[duncan macgregor]

WARTHOG, nice one i deserve it. Still your pal you smelly old bastard. macdunk

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

WARTHOG, nice one i deserve it. Still your pal you smelly old bastard. macdunk


Thanks for the complement Macdunk - great start to this sunny day!

[Enumerate]

Just had a great idea ...

Why don't we form the MacDunk Index ... an index of the latest picks of our friend. That way, we could track investment performance with complete clarity.

Furthermore, we could even form the MacDunk Index fund. We could back some cash into a vehicle that holds the index.

That way, supporters could go long; detractors could go short.

Phaedrus could do the charts and might even be tempted to invest if the dividend yield was high enough.

Belg could support the fund as long as it didn't involve supporting the US "War on Terror". K9 could counterpoint Belg's observations and catalogue any mis-steps in his .sig

If we ever needed lots of emoticons :D or BIG RED TEXT to update fund performance on the list - we also have this covered.

Maybe we could pickup a low cap listed stock to back the Index fund into - hey, why not make a play for GEN?!? There is a delicious irony in this ...

BTW - I'd probably go long on the MacDunk Index.

[K9]

Immediate heavy short for me...

see WHS and RBD calls

I guess he could always punch his index higher:D

[Bling_Bling]

Bling Bling is a happy WRI holder. :):) Bling has been buying and holding onto rural stocks and sleeping very well. Thank you for coming.

[Sky Tower]

I think the MacDunk Index is a great idea. Its the beginning of the second half of the year so a good time as well

Now MacDunk can we have some ideas as to how you would invest say $100,000

[duncan macgregor]

SKYTOWER, you speak in jest. Only fools blindly follow. I think that most people on this site have a mind of their own. macdunk

[Bling_Bling]

Why dont WRI merge or buy out ALF with a share script bid?

[duncan macgregor]

They have enough on their plate right now to consider a move like that. I dont think that their next profit announcement will be to flash from what i can make out. macdunk

[Bling_Bling]

Who needs to huy $US when you can buy rural stock and make money on the weakness of the $NZ.... yeeehaaaa !

[duncan macgregor]

Bling bling, You have that right but look over the fence a bit further at forestry, and the one port that will take off. All further down the track but keep it in mind. Rural stocks due to trend up in the short term. MACDUNK

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Bling bling, You have that right but look over the fence a bit further at forestry, and the one port that will take off. All further down the track but keep it in mind. Rural stocks due to trend up in the short term. MACDUNK


Meanwhile, the MacDunk factor is alive and well. WRI have put on a healthy percentage since your last post oh please bless us messiah with another sign of what you wouldn't touch with a barge-pole MacDunk (even GEN has done fine since you said they were off your radar).

CHEERS MACDUNK YOUR FRIEND WARTHOG

disc: no WRI, no GEN [B)]

[duncan macgregor]

Warthog my smelly warty friend Gen is a dog about to go under the sp keeps dropping. WRI I am about to be a shareholder if PGG join up. I chose PGG so looks like i will be a shareholder in wri after all. Nice of you to keep me on my toes but you should use the macdunk got it wrong thread next time. pals forever macdunk

Meanwhile, the MacDunk factor is alive and well. WRI have put on a healthy percentage since your last post oh please bless us messiah with another sign of what you wouldn't touch with a barge-pole MacDunk (even GEN has done fine since you said they were off your radar).

CHEERS MACDUNK YOUR FRIEND WARTHOG

disc: no WRI, no GEN [B)]
[/quote]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


Warthog my smelly warty friend Gen is a dog about to go under the sp keeps dropping. WRI I am about to be a shareholder if PGG join up. I chose PGG so looks like i will be a shareholder in wri after all. Nice of you to keep me on my toes but you should use the macdunk got it wrong thread next time. pals forever macdunk


I may be smelly but not warty I can assure you.

Interesting to see you might be joining the WRI fold, albeit indirectly. So maybe that is the signal to sell that people might be looking for.

No, this is the correct thread - it's not MacDunk got it wrong. Far from it - you are like a good-luck charm MacDunk. Just as long as one buys what you're selling and sells what you're buying. Another indicator for TA people to add to their converging trendlines!

TAKE CARE DOWN ON THE FARM YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN A COW MIGHT BLOW YOU AWAY AND YOU'D HAVE WISHED THE GEN NON-FART HAD COME TO MARKET

WARTHOG

[duncan macgregor]

Warthog, Maybe you should have listened to macdunk after all take note of what PGG sp is now. friends to the end macdunk

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Warthog, Maybe you should have listened to macdunk after all take note of what PGG sp is now. friends to the end macdunk


As far as I can see Dunkie, PGG were hovering around $2 when WRI were $1.20-$1.30.

Now PGG is $2.45 and has had some dividends.

And WRI is $2.50 and has had some difidends.

The disciplined inverse-macdunk-correlation follower would have done pretty well I think - certainly better than buying PGG. If I recall correctly, Snoopy was pretty attached to his WRI - and now I can see why.

Disc: no WRI, no PGG.

[Bling_Bling]

All Bling can say is BEAUTIFUL. But Bling is looking to take some profit at these levels. Who knows how high it will go. Good luck and happy capital gains.:)

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


As far as I can see Dunkie, PGG were hovering around $2 when WRI were $1.20-$1.30.

Now PGG is $2.45 and has had some dividends.

And WRI is $2.50 and has had some dividends.

The disciplined inverse-macdunk-correlation follower would have done pretty well I think - certainly better than buying PGG. If I recall correctly, Snoopy was pretty attached to his WRI - and now I can see why.

Disc: no WRI, no PGG.


Don't be too hard on MacDunk, Warthog. I think he has done OK over the years (despite)/(because of) the maverick streak within him. I'm guessing that starting from the time Macdunk and I were both in WRI together we are both about even on our capital. However, I have put much less effort into my position, basically just maintaining my holding via buy and hold, while Macdunk has has been in and out of all sorts of things.

I'd like to say 'I told you so' re WRI, but the truth is that $2.60 close as of today seems almost unbelievable. There is no way I would have predicted that WRI would have got to that price when I first started buying into WRI in a substantial way in mid 2002.
Back then I had thought that a price of $1.60 would be the absolute top of the cycle!

A lot has happened at WRI over these last three years. We have seen the arrival of Craig Norgate as the new steward of the company. The merger with Williams and Kettle and now PGG. Everything is moving so fast, I wouldn't hazard a guess as to what the true value of WRI is now! I await the arrival in the post of the PGG/WRI merger documentation, and the accompanying Grant Samuel report for my enlightenment. All I know is the WRI that I had predicted would have a maximum value of $1.60/share is *not* the same WRI that is trading on the market today.

Nevertheless I'd be cautious about recommending WRI as a buy at today's prices. I think WRI is still my preferred buy in the rural sector. ALF has been run up on speculation of a takeover that hasn't happened. PGC has the Marac finance group exposure distorting the picture. This has worked very well for PGC shareholders up to now, but I'm not hugely enamoured with finance companies in general at this stage of the business cycle.

There must be tougher times on the way for farming - eventually (it has been so good for so long). But in the meantime I'm prepared to let the smarter man than me ( aka Mr Norgate ) hang onto the steering wheel while I go along for the ride.

SNOOPY

discl: hold WRI

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, You say nice things about me to this warty pig. Seriousely I think that you and I both are surprised at what did happen. I got out at about $1-30 if my memory serves me right, then almost doubled my money on southern capital later HQP. I bought into pwc,TPW, and PGG. You lost money when the WRI sp dropped to about $1-00 but later doubled your money on my sell price. I am well in front of my sell price of $1-30. and pretty happy with the fact that i did sell even in hindesight knowing the out come. I must now admit to being slightly nervous at the price level. and have set my stop loss at a higher than normal level. We both doubled our money in our own way, so who cares about the tall poppy syndrome. macdunk

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

SNOOPY, You say nice things about me to this warty pig. Seriousely I think that you and I both are surprised at what did happen. I got out at about $1-30 if my memory serves me right, then almost doubled my money on southern capital later HQP. I bought into pwc,TPW, and PGG. You lost money when the WRI sp dropped to about $1-00 but later doubled your money on my sell price. I am well in front of my sell price of $1-30. and pretty happy with the fact that i did sell even in hindesight knowing the out come. I must now admit to being slightly nervous at the price level. and have set my stop loss at a higher than normal level. We both doubled our money in our own way, so who cares about the tall poppy syndrome. macdunk


Bit of a sideswipe MacDunk but not necessary, as the warthog is pretty down on snippers of tall poppies. If you double your money, or even make a safe 10% annually on a consistent basis, that is far more than any bank would give you, so that's fine in my books. Give me a wave from your new Audi on the way to the farm TAKE CARE WARTHOG

[duncan macgregor]

WARTHOG, sorry my old mate I wont bother waving but will heave a bucket of swill in your direction. I prefer my builders truck to a new car anyday. I always say it as i see it and try not to boar people by being right all the time. macdunk

[FYA4999]

Hi

I noticed a sharp drop in the WRI share price today. Does anyone know why? Any info about the terms of the merger with PGG? What will the merged entity be valued at? Will this be enough to grab the attention of index fund managers etc...

FYA

[KW]

Can someone please help....
Perhaps its my fault for not having read the stuff posted out by WRI/PGG but can someone please explain how 3000 PGG shares and 2500 WRI shares have become 3375 PGW shares trading at $2.15?????

[TerryA]

KW,

Todays changes are only the name change and the PGG Bonus issue.

WRI shares yet to be transferred to PGW.

Hope that helps.

[KW]

Yes, thanks.
WRI has already been delisted, so when is the transfer of WRI shares due?
Why on earth didnt they do everything at the same time!

[TerryA]

KW,

If you are using an on-line Portfolio "manager" I think that you will have to manually "sell" your WRI shares and "buy" the equivalent number of PGW shares to keep your records straight.

I am not aware of any on-line programme that will do this automatically.

Best wishes

[duncan macgregor]

KW,3000 pgg shares were $2-40 lets say, now you have 3375 pgg shares at $2-15 or there abouts . Same type thing with wrightsons its only making it a fair deal for investors in both companies to come out even. Im as happy as a warthog in the pooh. macdunk

[KW]

The problem is that I dont have any WRI or their PGW equivalent. The shares have just disappeared into thin air today.
What would have happened if I wanted to sell them all today?

[duncan macgregor]

KW, you would be **** outa luck mate. macdunk

[KW]

Too right. There is no excuse for the two companies and registry to make such a stuff up. Imagine if the share market plunged tomorrow, and we all lost the opportunity to cash up our PGW shares today.
Which is quite pertinent, since I am in the middle of rebalancing my portfolio!

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

Since our animated Scottish friend MacDunk has been commentating on WRI, I have noted an approximate inverse correlation between his negative commentary and the actual share-price.

Surely now WRI must be right at edge of MacDunk's radar?

Disc: no WRI (unfortunately)

Forgot to add SP as of today: 215 and note the rogue factor, and that is MacDunk's lack of admiration for GEN, a large chunk of which WRI has dumped. NB: the SP of both companies has risen (GEN to 49).

Disc: hold GEN (fortunately)
My old mate WARTHOG posted that slightly over two years ago.
Hope you are still so sure you got it right. :D:D:DMACDUNK

[warthog]

Depends on timeframe, my old pal MacDunk. Disc: the hog has never owned PGW, but a few people known to the hog have been picking up PGW lately.

[duncan macgregor]

Only pulling your curly tail you swine:D. Its good to have you on about some company that followed my prediction after all the crap i put up with. I did think you would have been to smart not to see the writing on the wall and stay well clear. I like looking up old posts to see who is for real with their predictions and who only talks rubbish. The people picking up PGW lately, will give it all back,unless they are traders smart enough to time the market. This company is heading south, The dollar is not dropping, they are making stupid decisions, bring this back at me in six months time. Remember thats what i said when the sp was a dollar higher than it is today. macdunk

[warthog]

Quite without reference to anything in this discussion or any other, the hog considers it a solid strength to realise the follie of one's ways having been given a haircut by the market. The trick, of course, is to realise one is being taught a lesson somewhere around the "quick trim" stage, rather than a full-on chop.

Good to know somebody has time to go through all the old posts keeping us all honest. Seemed for a while that BRICKS was keeping everybody guessing with an astoundingly poor command of the written word (imagine hearing BRICKS speak) - even Phaedrus bit a worm that BRICKS cast in the pond.

YOUR MATE WARTHOG