Long Term Holds in NZX - Buffet style

[Dazza]

ok im not sure if there is already a thread about this, so pls excuse my laziness in searching for me. newbie to this investing business, from what i have read a few paragraphs here and there, buffet likes co. that are in a clear monolopy and have clear revenues/profits good healthy ones that will continue in say 10 years time from a buy, afta researching it, he usually buys on the dips and pretty much holds foreva.......

now im wondering... are there any of these kinds of co.s in new zealand.

i went to check out TEL... on big charts
5 years ago.. it was trading at around 8.50 level give or take 50 cents. now not to mention the 5 years of decent dividends etc...
but todays prices around 6.54... thats a $2 depreciation of the SP? or were there some share splits etc etc?
if u go back 10 years ago, it was around the $5 mark...
now off course being a buffet brainer, u would buy on the lows in 2001/2/3 at the $4-40 mark.

now id thought telecom is like good as? monolopy , clear stream of revenue coming in from times to come, they update their technology and products etc

so lets check out others, i picked WAM and also AIA
AIA - IMO is a bit risky due to future unplanned airport developments in NZL , aswell as with the space ship thingie etc...

WAM well ppl consume therefure there will always be RUBBISH :D
so for WAM
5 years ago - 4.50 mark
10 years ago - 1.00 mark
clearly we can see that this is a good LT hold
so can we say that its growing by about 40% pa for 10 years? maybe... *sorry my numbers are estimations*
but u see my point right? clearly WAM was a good buffet company.. although it was flat pretty much in the early 90s

AIA on the other hand is another good example
5 years ago it was 2.80
i hope u guys can see my point.

now i have youth on my hands at the moment still at uni. ive been going and thinking, either try trading and hope to get rich quick etc etc, like ive seen DIMEBAG :D and other young posters in here do it in the last 2 years or so *good years might i say*

on the otherhand, i can just invest... in companies that i think/others think are here for the LT, buffet styles, simple co.s with simple ideas that just churns out the $$$ for us shareholders :D , my dad says to just throw 2k in companies wheneva i have saved them up and then just keep doing it as im young..

im beginning to slowly understand that concept and have flagged of sharetrading at the moment *maybe go and do forex instead to cure my young heated brain :D, LT just takes too looooong haha*

so im wondering are there other co.s in nzl like the WAM, TEL, AIA in new zealand?!?!

personally in its current heat, id stay away from FBU, FPA and FPH.

i think NZOG will be a long term company...,

i think i will rule out any banks... i mean how many banks are there on the market...
at the moment i cant think of any others? WAM in my opinion fits lovely into the strat..

[troyvdh]

What a breath of fresh air !.I for have never seen TEL in a favourable light...."I just hate that company"..irrational ? maybe , so be it.If It wasn,t for Clear a few years back , who knows we would still be paying $5 per minute to ring Aust. when in reality the cost should never have been more that 10 cents !!!! Hey I dont mind some joker making a profit !!! but hey some reality please.On the topic "Sky City"..it fair sickens me to think that a company can stand proud when they make dosh out of the most unfortunate in society....and no I aint a leftie.
Mean while,I wholeheartly agree with your assessment re NOG.Can I add perhaps any thing to do with oil and gas and uranium.Anyone who occasionally reads the Economist blah blah will no doubt acknowledge that the demands of the above are beyond comprehension (China etc) and warrant serious consideration...
For those non believers in nuclear...think about Kyoto.....

[COLIN]

I've been in this game a long time and probably my best performer - and consequently now my largest holding - has been GPG. They have made their mistakes, of course - as has Buffet - but Ron and his men are better analysts than most in the broking offices and they still have a few tricks up their sleeves.

[Major von Tempsky]

Try CEN, CNZ (monopoly/oligopy on govt offices in central Wgtn), NZR, TOLL, Ports of Auckland, .......there's a number of candidates. And I wouldn't flag away FBU if I was you, have a harder look, it's still not overpriced. If it wasn't for the ingrained 1951 Waterfront strike mindset and culture Lyttelton Port would be a good yielder.
You ought to watch the TVOne business program at 6.30 a.m. I video it each day and watch it a bit later, cuts out 15 minutes of advertising and rubbish and reduces it to a 15 min program.
They had some good tips and why from Warren? Head, of Headliner, yesterday.
Oh, and there's another one I'm not mentioning because I have my eye on it to tip in a substantial load of money in the next month or two....
Ignore Skinny and the other sirens; don't invest overseas and don't diversify - not more than 5 stocks max.

[shasta]

Buffett type stocks would be HBY & GPG surely.

Maybe add in NPX/HQP, but he would hardly touch any NZX stocks at present given most are fully valued or close to it.

Remember he likes the "Main Street", not "Wall Street" businesses that have transparent earnings & cashflow, so NOG wouldnt make his list at present.

Under his criteria HBY at a good price (under say $5) would be the most likely stock as its the closest we have to Berkshire Hathaway.

[port hills]

quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

Try CEN, CNZ (monopoly/oligopy on govt offices in central Wgtn), NZR, TOLL, Ports of Auckland, .......there's a number of candidates. And I wouldn't flag away FBU if I was you, have a harder look, it's still not overpriced. If it wasn't for the ingrained 1951 Waterfront strike mindset and culture Lyttelton Port would be a good yielder.
You ought to watch the TVOne business program at 6.30 a.m. I video it each day and watch it a bit later, cuts out 15 minutes of advertising and rubbish and reduces it to a 15 min program.
They had some good tips and why from Warren? Head, of Headliner, yesterday.
Oh, and there's another one I'm not mentioning because I have my eye on it to tip in a substantial load of money in the next month or two....
Ignore Skinny and the other sirens; don't invest overseas and don't diversify - not more than 5 stocks max.




Hey Major,

What did Warren Head say yesterday, I heard he mentioned nog, what else and why?

[:p]

[lucky]

Warren Head picked;
SKC
FBU
TEN
NOG
AMP

[kittydashwood]

I would add CAV and PGC to that list.

[Dazza]

example how cav is there?
competition with feltex?! and other carpet makers?!

[kittydashwood]

Quality brand with good management in an unfavourable sector.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by troyvdh

What a breath of fresh air !.I for have never seen TEL in a favourable light...."I just hate that company"..irrational ? maybe , so be it.If It wasn,t for Clear a few years back , who knows we would still be paying $5 per minute to ring Aust. when in reality the cost should never have been more that 10 cents !!!! Hey I dont mind some joker making a profit !!! but hey some reality please.On the topic "Sky City"..it fair sickens me to think that a company can stand proud when they make dosh out of the most unfortunate in society....and no I aint a leftie.
Mean while,I wholeheartly agree with your assessment re NOG.Can I add perhaps any thing to do with oil and gas and uranium.Anyone who occasionally reads the Economist blah blah will no doubt acknowledge that the demands of the above are beyond comprehension (China etc) and warrant serious consideration...
For those non believers in nuclear...think about Kyoto.....




Your comment re SKC goes to show you DO belong to the sniveling class. Only a sandal wearer would say such a thing...

Invest in a string company my dear boy/girl, at least you would profit from it by the amount of it wrapped around what you call logical thought.

Bye, B:D

[port hills]

cheers Lucky, I hope you live up to your name. :D

[troyvdh]

Bongo66, sniveling class-dunno really never really thought about it.Hey I don,t mind making dosh.It maybe weird but taking money out of the pockets of the lower socio-economic (pacific islanders blah blah) and claiming (as happened afew years back) that by doing so one is held up as a example of corporate excellence is in my mind vomit inducing.I mean how clever do you have to be, have you seen those poor sods sitting infront of those noisy,jingly things...
Telecom....I just hate them..always have...always will....must be pathological.

bongo66 Posted - 10/03/2005 : 5:07:08 PM
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Your comment re SKC goes to show you DO belong to the sniveling class. Only a sandal wearer would say such a thing...

Invest in a string company my dear boy/girl, at least you would profit from it by the amount of it wrapped around what you call logical thought.

Bye, B

Ah ya poor saaad bugger Bongo - always happy to air your pathetic prejudices. I bet you wear a fluffy pink thong under all that black shiney leather. (Well I hope so!!)[:p]
Give Daz' a break - he is what he is - young & enthusiastic.:D

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by troyvdh

Bongo66, sniveling class-dunno really never really thought about it.Hey I don,t mind making dosh.It maybe weird but taking money out of the pockets of the lower socio-economic (pacific islanders blah blah) and claiming (as happened afew years back) that by doing so one is held up as a example of corporate excellence is in my mind vomit inducing.I mean how clever do you have to be, have you seen those poor sods sitting infront of those noisy,jingly things...
Telecom....I just hate them..always have...always will....must be pathological.


Its called freedom of choice dear boy. We all have it.

B

and exploitation, and predation... (snivel)

[madmike]

hey invest in skc...take the money off the islanders etc....aunty helen takes it of us....aunty helen gives it to the islanders etc...we take it back off the islanders thru skc

just countering aunty helen's misguided policy

money should be for those who work for it

[Dazza]

what what what?!
dun bring me into it?!
i neva said SKC is wrong...

SKC is good :D
cinemas... monolopy there
casino ... monolopy there
sky city + hotel ... monolopy in auckland tourism scene...

theres nothing ethical about sharetrading/co.s

i leave that to my dispensing guides

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Longtack

and exploitation, and predation... (snivel)


Why is it exploitation?????

I choose to go to SKC. I can also choose not to go. Simple.

If I gamble and lose, I reap the consequenses of my own actions.

[Halebop]

Blackcap you may be able to choose but some people can't and it has nothing to do with being an "Islander" or a lower quartile demographic (as the Commonwealth Bank found to their cost it appears).

Gambling is as addictive as drugs and at its worst becomes a common pathological disorder. This has nothing to do with choice or morals. Its just what happens.

The affects of pathological gambling are obvious and uniformly unpleasant, usually resulting in the systematic destruction of the individual's wealth, self esteem and often health, not to mention downstream affects on family and loved ones. This part of the argument is a moral dilemma for all of us capable of moral choices (there is another disorder for those who can't).

I have nothing personally against SKC or any other casino. Its a bit rich when their PR gets into the "community" spin though. A bit like your local crack dealer building a library for school children. While SKC profits handsomely, numerous social agencies bear the cost of their more unpleasant outputs. The taxes don't put families back together, doesn't restore health or self esteem, doesn't pay creditors. People are ruined by the illness of gambling. And "Freedom of Choice" has little to do with it.

[blackcap]

Thanks for your answer Halebop and I appreciate where you are coming from, but im sorry people are still responsible for their own actions. If they know they have an "addictive" personality they shouldnt go there.
Not that I beleive in addiction anyway. Its just an excuse for a weak backbone. How many people have been "addicted" to ciggarettes but have managed to give up this addiction?

Just if you are addicted to gambling and know your gambling may be destroying your family. Then you have a choice to make. It might be hard, but its got to be done.

You cant blame SKC for peoples weaknesses. Jeez if SKC are being tainted then your local fish and chip shop can be tainted the same way for enticing fat people to continue eating cholestoral laden food etc etc.

The buck stops at oneself.

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

Quality brand with good management in an unfavourable sector.

Bailed out of both CAV & FTX today - they are industries which will be particularly adversely affected by today's move by the R/Bank. With the way interest rates are trending, people are going to think twice about putting a few thousand extra dollars onto their mortgage to buy new carpet, new housing construction is bound to slow, and the ridiculous heights that the kiwi dollar is now hitting will put tremendous pressure on exporting manufacturers. For most exporters their forward FX cover contracts, at advantageous rates, will soon run out - if they haven't done so already.
Looking at the CAV chart, I should have exited long ago. Can't understand why I left it so long.

[Lawso]

Don't you think all those negatives could already be factored into's CAV's current price, Colin? It's down from the mid-500s to low 400s. I reduced my holding @ 540. At the current price CAV is a good buying opp IMO.

[limegreen]

quote:Not that I beleive in addiction anyway. Its just an excuse for a weak backbone. How many people have been "addicted" to ciggarettes but have managed to give up this addiction?

Blackcap, I'd suggest that the addicted ones are the ones who fail to give up smoking (of which there are plenty). I also think your suggestion that people with "addictive personalities" should avoid casinos is a bit rich. How do you think people could find out about their addictive personality? By getting addicted to things? Or by a blood-test from their GP?


quote:im sorry people are still responsible for their own actions.

It's interesting to note that general psychological learning theories, suggest that prior experiences (not all of which are under the control of the individual) have a strong influence on future behaviour.
Somewhat more contentiously, there is research to suggest that the brain actually makes decisions before the conscious mind makes the decision. That is, consciousness is just an irrelevant by-product of your actual decision-making process. Hence, an extreme interpretation is that we have no free-will at all, and your strong belief in self-responsiblity is just an amusing by-product of an almost infinite number of prior experiences.

[OldRider]

LIMEGREEN: Can I presume you own no shares then?, and why aren't we still living in a cave.

[I.T.Ancient]

People are free to make their own choices. SKC are not responsible for the free choices that people make.

However what is wrong in that SKC has an effective monopoly in some business areas where there should be free and open markets. This is a textbook case of socialists & big business conniving for mutual benefit.

[limegreen]

Oldrider: The popularity of free-will is attributable to some theologians about 300-400 years ago. They were worried that if God was all powerful and made us do stuff, then God effectively made us sin as well. Thus, giving humans free-will, to make "choices" of our own volition, seemed like a pretty neat solution. Somewhere along the line, most people lost the God from the picture, but kept the free-will.

Or at least that's roughly how I remember it. I haven't bothered to read past the first few lines, but it provides an outline of the determinism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determinism

PS: Yes, I do own shares. A person would have to wonder what weird combination of prior experience I might have to make me spend some much time on a share forum while not owning shares.

[limegreen]

Speculating about the existence or not of free-will is a bit of a distraction as to whether people exercise choice over smoking or gambling. My original point was that past experiences do shape future actions to some greater or lesser degree (bottom line, that's all "learning" is). Research suggests that problems with things such as smoking and gambling can be influenced by prior learning, as well as genetic dispositions. Thus, at least some of the variance is not explainable in terms of 'choice'. And for some unfortunate few, a lot of the the variance is not explained by choice.

Sorry about the science speak. I'm seeking professional help for that, trying to negate the influences of prior experience. Hah!

[Dazza]

hey ppl keep this thread on track pls, u wanna talk about skc or free will do so properly -_-

[bongo66]

May I be so bold as to suggest Buffet would be accumulating RBD had he an interest here AND its a big and if RBD management did what they did better:D

:), B

[belgarion]

Cash !!!

End of story. It's what Buffet is doing too. I.e. can't find good buy, so don't!

[Dazza]

at these moements, its better to find good co.s isnt it belg?

in order to find BUY, u just gotta wait for the market to dip in a moment.

so far im looking at WAM and AIA, until there are dips ill be holding off my buy orders

any other co.s out there that are monolopies etc

[CAM]

My question to you then Dazza is what constitutes a dip??? Look at the WAM chart you could say it hasn't dipped ...You might never get in!!!

I have been with AIA, CEN and SKC since they have listed...never traded them...they are my Buffet type stocks. I bought SKC at $32 on the grey market before they listed, taken up all the previous drips (and will sign up for this one), bought more when Brierly got out and not sure how many splits there have been...3 I think if you count the one on listing. I am happy with the returns I am getting even though I "might" have made more trading. They are a cash generating legislated monopoly. Only future problems I see is they over extend themselves (some say they already have) or Aunty Helen changes the rules. I think the shares owe me sub $2 not counting the healthy dividends....so the yield is fantastic.

Another I would consider is NZR....am kicking myself for not buying this monopoly when it was sitting around $12 to $15....but thems the breaks

Maybe even not fully invest all your $$$ and wait for the Vector listing.

Good luck