TWR, The Saga Continues - from 01.01.2004

[The GrandMaster]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Anyone keeping track of the combined value since the split? Looks like it has been negative so far.


Down -3.6% since the start of the year by my calculations.

[truedragon]

I wonder where is the bottom.... I will be surprised if it go under 1.70.... I mean the world economic is doing quite good even in the face of spiking oil price..... I think I will buy more on FA if it go under 1.70.....[:o)]

[Gryffyn]

I bought for the turn around and once the AUM sale was announced and priced in I got out as posted some time back. TWR NZ may creep back up but its a different game now. AUM is a different story but if you are looking at ASX there are many other choices too.

[Solo]

TWR has been a speculative play, based on GPG's involvement, turn around story, and as a "likely" takeover target. It looks like the market was expecting some major action and lost the interest in TWR after the spin off.
However, TWR now is a simpler, more focused business (argubly a better takeover target). GPG is still in the equation, there is 130 million cash pouring into the business and 2004 has been an awesome year for the sector. I think there is still upside for TWR.
It is a little disappointing with the recent share price movement, but take into account of AUW gain it's not as bad as it looks.

[biker]

Solo
A comment I read from JB Were this am. " ....The success of the AWM spin-off shouldn't be judged on short term trading in either AWM or Tower.In our view the spinoff should be regarded as the first strategic step in realising full value from the two independent businesses."

[winner69]

NBRs Shoeshine says the sum of the parts is the same as the whole - so far

The spin off of AWM has not been a raging success he says

The market valuation of the two outfits is only 3% ahead of where TWR was in Sept when the spin off was announced he says (NZX up 18% in the same time)

Shoeshine does say that this suugests there is no value lurking in either company that was going unrecognised by the markets

Is that how you guys see the situation?

On AWM GPG say they are comfortable with their 32% stake in the company .... and the speculation continues that the 'value' in this outfit is a takeover
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12536416%255E643,00.html

[airedale]

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=1525

looks like the [Turnaround] Saga will continue slowly. Macquarie has upgraded Tower from Underperform to Neutral.

[truedragon]

I am really surprise that only 78% take up the writes.... they gave away millions to GPG...

Anybody hold this under ASB margin lending account? They are having problem sorting my no. out which is pissing me off. I paid for my AUW and their record shows I haven't.... what the XXXX

DISC: Hold AUW

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by truedragon

I am really surprise that only 78% take up the writes.... they gave away millions to GPG...
DISC: Hold AUW


:D:D:D

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by truedragon

I am really surprise that only 78% take up the writes.... they gave away millions to GPG...

Anybody hold this under ASB margin lending account? They are having problem sorting my no. out which is pissing me off. I paid for my AUW and their record shows I haven't.... what the XXXX

DISC: Hold AUW

I'm surprised that as many as 78% took up the rights. Don't forget that a lot of TWR shareholders are only there because they had an insurance policy with the old Government Life Dept and were "given" shares on demutualisation. A huge number of them would not have any other share investments and would know precious little about the market - let alone know what "rights" are, or how to go about getting Australian dollars to take them up. As predicted, GPG foresaw such an outcome.
Buy GPG, and share in the spoils!

[floyd]

Tower Ltd. (TWR NZ), the nation's third-biggest asset manager, added 2 cents, or 1.1 percent, to NZ$1.79. Credit Suisse First Boston upgraded its recommendation to ``outperform'' from ``neutral'' saying the stock's projected 12-month return of 16.4 percent isn't reflected in the share price.

[whatsup]

AWM 1/1 -3yr unlisted .80c Aust options issue no cum date ,what gives see Aust share chat!!!!

[Paper Tiger]

TWR had a good day on the NSX, and also climbed to A$1.70 (NZ$1.85) at close on the ASX, and today was not a good day on the ASX.

I have heard all shades of opinions with regard to tower, but it does seem to be regarded as a good defensive stock.

[airedale]

Hi PT, they have cash in hand after spinning off AUW, good chance that they will resume dividends this year. I think that we can expect the next leg to be upwards. GPG havn't finished yet.

[Paper Tiger]

The first half year has just finished and I am not sure whether to expect a reasonable result or "would be better but we restructured, but going forward is fine" result.
I am expecting that they at least commit to a final year dividend.

[truedragon]

Good to see TWR finish above 1.90.. having been there for a while now.
AUW on the other hand seems to be losing steam... sub $1 for a while today.

DISC: Hold both TWR and AUW

[floyd]

from yesterdays bloomberg report.......

Tower Ltd. (TWR NZ), the nation's third-biggest asset manager, added 8 cents, or 4.4 percent, to NZ$1.89. James Coghill, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, yesterday raised his 2005 net income estimate by 20 percent to NZ$54.6 million ($38.6 million), and his 2006 estimate by 3 percent to NZ$63.6 million, according to Thomson Financial.

[truedragon]

Good on ya Goghill

[Paper Tiger]

If Mr Coghill is right then that is an improvement of 30% over the pro-forma for 2004. I would like to believe it.

[Gryffyn]

Tower appoints new head of NZ General Insurance

08.04.05 4.40pm

Tower has appointed financial services consultant Pieter Lindhout as chief executive of its New Zealand General Insurance and Direct Risk businesses.

Tower chief executive Jim Minto said Mr Lindhout had an extensive record in the financial services industry and experience with major corporate entities in both Australia and New Zealand.

"As such, he is the ideal person to bring a trans-Tasman focus to our NZ General Insurance and Direct Risk business as it undergoes change and growth."

Mr Lindhout, who begins at Tower on May 2, was previously general manager of Australian insurance and financial services consultants The Spencer Partnership.

Before that he was with AMP in both Australia and New Zealand.

- NZPA

[airedale]

Tower off to a good start today on good volume. It has been strengthening over the last few days since April 1st.
Discl: Holding TWR

[Paper Tiger]

just hit 197 :)

[floyd]

alot of interest in australia as well?

[Paper Tiger]

floyd, australia is usually the main driver of the TWR share price.

[Gryffyn]

Good on PT for keeping the TWR thread alive. Overall though, do you really think it has great potential for further increases etc?

[Paper Tiger]

I could not have done this without many others. I would like to thank my parents and also floyd, truedragon....

You trying flattery to worm information out of me, Gryffyn?

Anyway, what do I think?
TWR for me is a long term thing, and has given me the odd concern recently when they seemed to be playing musical chairs with management and especially with the terrible advertising they use on NZ TV. (As an aside is anybody interested in joining the Society for the Prevention of Cruelity to Worries)
However I do not expect anything spectacular, unless the Worry Liberation Front burns down their premises, but I think you will see them grow their income and profits in a nice steady way, the market will generally gain confidence in them and the P/E and SP will both rise over the next few years. On top of that they have some of that cash from the split to use, so if they find a nice little something to buy that would be a bonus but it is not necessary.
Resuming dividends should also help and I will be upset if we get nothing this FY.

Paper Tiger

[truedragon]

TWR better start paying dividend. Or I will be pissed.

DISC: hold TWR

[Gryffyn]

Come on PT, it doesn't need flattery to get info out of you - the trick is stopping you ;)

Cheers

[Paper Tiger]

[:I] :)

[Gryffyn]

Give that tiger a tuna sandwich.

Interesting, this page is entirely posted to by mythical creatues so far.

[airedale]

To add a touch of reality, the Airedale Terrier is still here, albeit lying quietly in his corner at the moment.

[truedragon]

Anybody know when is the annoucement date and estimate of the result? I am hoping a annual profit of 40 mil+ and a divvy.

DISC: Hold TWR

[Paper Tiger]

I would suggest that the half year result will be out Thursday 26th or Friday 27th.

It is difficult to estimate the actual amount what with all AUW fun, but as a guess $23-24M and a dividend of 3cps.
Full year guess at this stage is $48-52M and divvies for the year of 7cps.

[Ed]

The HY is out on the 19th for TWR

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Ed

The HY is out on the 19th for TWR

who says?

[floyd]

the tower website......

19 May 2005 Interim result for the six months to 31 March 2005 announced

[Paper Tiger]

thanx :)

[truedragon]

Thanks guys. Fingers crossed :D

[Paper Tiger]

A brisk climb of the Tower today, which is good.
This time it is part of a nice steady ascent that started on the 19th april.
Let us hope it continues.

It would seem that todays gain is on the back of the abolition of the super surcharge in the Oz budget yesterday, which should be good for business in the Oz Investment division.

[Paper Tiger]

Still climbing, today we are selling off the office building in Wellington.

Closes at $1.92.


quote:
TWR
12/05/2005
GENERAL

REL: 1557 HRS Tower Limited

GENERAL: TWR: CUSTOMHOUSE QUAY BUILDING - EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

TOWER Limited has announced that it is seeking expressions of interest for
its building at 50-64 Customhouse Quay, Wellington. It has appointed David
Preston to assist with the process.

The building is held as an asset in the TOWER Life fund and the decision to
consider the sale of the building reflects TOWER's prudent management of its
life fund assets and continued desire to maximise returns for policyholders.
The building is not an ideal policyholder investment and investment of the
funds released from the sale of the building into alternative assets would
provide better diversification and improve the liquidity of the fund.

The nine storey building is on a prime site on Wellington's waterfront and
presents an outstanding opportunity for redevelopment. The building is on the
Wellington City Council Heritage List, carrying a Historic Places Trust
Category 2 historic building rating and the land is zoned "central area"
which means it can be used for a wide variety of purposes. With a land area
of 1,883 square metres the site offers a large floor plate opportunity with
development permissible to a height of 60 metres. The Tower building is a
prominent landmark with three street frontages and excellent views over
Wellington waterfront and the harbour.

TOWER currently occupies space on just over 4 out of a total of 9 floors in
the building and will consider its future accommodation options and needs as
part of the sale process.

TOWER anticipates significant interest from both New Zealand and Australian
investors and developers with some interest having already been expressed for
hotel conversion.

For more information contact:

Jim Minto
TOWER Limited
Group Chief Executive Officer
04 498 7963
021 327 074

William Giesbers
TOWER Limited
Group General Manager
04 498 7906
021 435 981
End CA:00115234 For:TWR Type:GENERAL Time:2005-05-12:15:57:13

[Paper Tiger]

Bit of speculation to help the share price up for tomorrow's half year results

quote:from the NZHerald

Profit likely to show Tower on the mend


18.05.05


By Gareth Vaughan


Tower’s half-year results tomorrow are expected to show continuing improvement in the insurer and fund manager’s earnings following last year’s first annual profit in three years.

Macquarie Equities analysts expect net profit of $54 million for the six months to March 31, up from $20 million in the same period last year, boosted by $32.8 million from the spin-off of Australian Wealth Management.

Excluding one-off items and goodwill, Macquarie predicts a 20 per cent rise in profit - compared with the same period last year - to $24 million.

Credit Suisse First Boston said the key factors should be Tower’s Australian life insurance business, improved New Zealand general insurance profitability and a focus on returns rather than volumes.

Last November, when Tower posted a $54.6 million annual profit, chairman Olaf O’Duill said the board would consider resuming dividend payments this year.

Macquarie predicts a 2c-a-share fully franked dividend, but not until Tower’s annual result in November.

Tower received A$130 million from spinning off Australian Wealth Management (AWM) on to the Australian Stock Exchange in February.

"Management has made no secret of its desire to acquire, so commentary in this regard will be of interest, particularly given rumours regarding PrefSure (the old Lumley life insurance book) being for sale," Macquarie suggests.

Jim Minto replaced Keith Taylor as Tower’s managing director in February and the company has appointed several new chief executives to its seven business units. Minto said this was to create a clear focus of expertise and accountability for each line of business activity.

However, Citigroup Smith Barney suggests there is a "strong hint" Tower will split up each of its businesses, possibly by an AWM-style listing or through trade sales.

"Still, with AWM trading below its listing price, Tower’s ability to execute this strategy is open to question," Citigroup said.

AWM shares yesterday traded at 89Ac, down from the A$1 issue price to Tower shareholders in February.

[airedale]

Hi Tiger, the last sentence of the above press release doesn't sound right. Some of my AUW shares were issued "free", and the rest were issued at 80 cents. Don't know about the $1.00 issue price. The price is going up.That is the main thing

[Paper Tiger]

So the wondrous magnificence of the Tower board was completely wasted on you, airedale.

The shares had a nominal value of A$1 and they gave you those for nothing. Aren't they so generous?

The shares that they wanted you to buy they let you have them for a mere A$0.80, 20% discount. Does their generousity know no bounds?

At the same time AUW was valued at A$250M fair value and I think 292M shares were issued which actually worked out at A$0.86 a share. Could be wrong by a couple of cents.

[floyd]

through the $2 mark, first time in a while....

[airedale]

PT, as you know I am just an old terrier,worrying about a few cents in the absence of really juicy bone. All hail to your tigerish magnificence.

[Ted2]

Solid result = price goes down.

Macquaries seemed to be reasonably on the money. $55m just ahead of their prediction, although not sure how to compare the actual of $20m (excl. one-offs etc) with their prediction of $24m. (except that it's lower!)

No divvy although that was predicted too.

Case of buy the rumour sell the fact? [?]

[Paper Tiger]

Probably.

Shame about the divvy. Not even a commitment to one at FY.
I think that would have helped the price.

Just been through some of the reams of documentation that TWR have emitted ths morning.

Headline profit is $55.307M
Excluding AWM (spin-off and profit) profit is $26.650M :)(this includes goodwill write down of $2.5M post tax[:I])

NTA is now $1.80 per share :)

[KJ]

They have said that they will reconsider div at FY.

[Ed]

PT, NAV was stated as 2.04 in the release. Valuation (sum of parts) by Forbar was 2.25, before the announcement. It also appears that they did not factor in the gain from the sale of AUW. (Forbar was estimating normalised earnings of 52m for the FY)

[Paper Tiger]

Ed:
NAV = NTA + Intangibles.
Forbar can value them at what they want, I would be happy if the market settled on the same figure.
I guessed 23M- 24M at the top of this page for HY having forgotten to add the AUW bits in and had 48M-52M for full year. I think this now needs revising upwards :)

Again I wish they had committed to a divvy as opposed to a re-consideration of same.

[Ed]

While I like to get a div, the fact TWR is not going to pay one (just yet) is a positive signal. It says to me "we have some good ideas about things to buy". And, with this management team, I think that what they will buy will be worth having.

[airedale]

Agree,Ed, no divi yet is no big deal. It means that the money is still in the war chest. It may even make TWR look more attractive as a takeover target.

[truedragon]

I am happy the result is okay. I am not happy about the divvy. Surly they can do a token gesture to the long suffering shareholder that they can at least get some $$ in their hand.

DISC: Hold TWR

[Ed]

TD, I am not a fan of token gesture politics - Look at the Cullen budget for the what this leads to.

With many shareholders looking for a divvi (and, there is nothing wrong with that!) it seems the board and management is showing character (or, "ticker" as people in these parts are fond of saying) to resist the temptation to start paying out.

TWR is likely to be making some acquisitions in the near future, and a board that is prepared to take unpopular decisions seems to be more capable of getting these decisions right, than one that just makes soothing sounds and gestures.

Who knows; maybe the board has already sized up a target and wants to keep its' powder dry, and its' ratios low. If so, good on them. If not, a nice cash box is always a sweetner for an acquirer. SHs win both ways.

Sure, I would like the dividend cheques to roll in, but the style and substance of the new board and management team gives me plenty of assurance that my share of the cash is in safe hads.

Disc. Olaf is not a family member!!

[truedragon]

We will see if the new management deliver. Should know within the next 12 months.

[Footsie]

Well i'm happy to keep holding for 12 months... div or no div

[Paper Tiger]

Tower is swimming against the stream very successfully today. :)

[truedragon]

go babe go

[truedragon]

205, with the 20 MA nearly breaking the 100 MA and if it does break above it and break above 300 MA. I think we will be set for a 1+ appreciation run.:D[8D]

DISC: hold TWR

[Paper Tiger]

Not only but also:
Broke out of the downtrend that began last November in the last week, and is now in an uptrend that began on 18th April. :)

Disc: Must get myself some free storage so I can post the odd chart.

[Paper Tiger]

The odd chart :)

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/TWR_050527.png

Other lines are a 50, 100 & 200linear MA's and in dark green a 20% "something I don't have a name for"

[truedragon]

nice chart tiger.
Phaderus, would you be so kind and share us with your technical analysis view on TWR now if you read this message.

My prediction is that TWR is pose for one hell of an appreciation run. AMP and the whole insurance sector also looks healthy. Very bullish... but then I am often wrong on try to predict the share market[:o)]

DISC:Hold TWR

[Phaedrus]

TD,
What don't you like about Paper Tiger's chart? I thought it showed the current situation quite clearly.
If you want another view, all I could do is chart a longer timeframe to give PT's chart some historical perspective.
Note how well the OBV indicator flagged the two most important exit points. See how effectively the use of simple trendlines kept you out of this stock for 2 years while the share price plummeted. Observe how important an event it is when a longterm support level is broken. There was plenty of warning here. Only those with absolutely no knowledge of TA would have been caught holding this stock when the meltdown occurred.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TWR529001.gif

[Paper Tiger]

Bit of a furious fight between buyers and sellers sees the closing price stay at $2.08, but it so easily could have been $2.05.

[rmbbrave]

New broom sweeps quickly
05 June 2005

Tower's new boss has made rapid chnges and is ready to wield the axe for shareholders, reports Greg Ninness.


Tower's new boss, Jim Minto, is exposing his business to the invigorating blast of public scrutiny, and promises to rank and yank if divisions underperform.

Minto has moved at a breathtaking pace to restructure the investment and insurance group since he became group managing director on March 1.

He has cleared out layers of management, and will disclose the separate financial results of each of its five divisions from now on, allowing shareholders to see exactly how well each is performing.

He won't need any prompting from them to axe businesses that don't perform.

"I will already have figured that out," he said.

The axe is something Minto has wielded frequently over the past three months.

He has scrapped the previous management structure and appointed a new group chief financial officer and new chief executives for each of Tower's five operating divisions.

He has also made new senior appointments in marketing and operations.

But Minto said he had not had to be as severe as he was when he was appointed to his previous role as chief executive of Tower Australia to sort out the company's problem across the Tasman.

"It's not quite as bad as it was in Australia where I changed the whole management team, every single one of them, within the first six months," he said.

"We've got a lot of good people here, but we haven?t got the best out of them and we haven't led them very well."

When Minto was put in charge of the whole company, he was presented with a proposed management structure for the NZ operation which was about to be implemented.

This would have had a single layer of management running all three of the company's main business divisions - investment (managed funds), fire and general insurance and life and personal risk insurance.

There would have been one CEO at the top and, under him, heads of marketing, product development, sales and so on, who would have been in charge of those services across all three divisions.

"I looked at all the key statistics and said 'this is doomed to fail'," Minto said.

He proposed having a chief executive for each division, each running his own marketing and sales operations. This would enable each business to get closer to its market and react more quick ly in competitive situations.

But overhead infrastructure, such as human re sources and IT, would be centrally managed to reduce costs.

"The [NZ management] team argued strongly with me that the [proposed] structure was the way to go and there was a lot of vested interest there of course."

But he could not afford to waste time arguing the toss.

"We don't have time.We've been remediating Australia and our shareholders have seen a good restoration of value, but there?s still a lot more to do, so time is some thing we don't have.

"We have to move quickly and we have to execute really well. And we have to genuinely prove we can move and act quicker than our competitors."

After taking up his new role, Minto moved decisively to set up his new structure and his plan was approved by Tower?s board a week later.

He was able to move so quickly because there was no need for a honeymoon in his new role.

Minto has been involved with Tower since its predecessor company, Government Life, employed him to run Trustees Executors, since renamed Tower Trust.

He has worked his way through every aspect of the Tower Group, eventually becoming chief executive for New Zealand before being sent to Australia to sort out the mess there.

As well as being familiar with the entire company he also knows how quickly things can be achieved, because he has done it before.

"One of the periods I really enjoyed the most was back in 1998 when (former Tower MD) James Boonzaier asked me if I?d take over Tower Trust Services, which was the unit trust company, and merge it with the investment business - Trustees Executors, which I was runnin

[truedragon]

Paper Tiger and Phaedrus, thank you both for the chart.
GO Mr. Minto, let's see what you can do.

DISC: Hold TWR

[Westie]

TWR holders from more recent times can also take heart, I recently read a book that talked about studies of companies that spin off divisions. Apparently there is a tendancy for both the spin off & the parent to outperform the market in the first two years after the spin off. The outperformance is usually more pronounced for the spin off but not always. So if you pick companies like TWR & AWM you are stacking the odds in your favour. Early days yet though.

[truedragon]

TWR seems to have recovered nicely... actually so is AUW, although I sold on AUW a while back..... bugger.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3314635a13,00.html
Apparently extreme weather is putting some pressure on the insurance industry.... should we be worried?

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Insurers go through a rough patch
16 June 2005
By ROELAND van den BERGH

Rising building costs combined with increasing extreme weather events are putting pressure on insurance industry profits, Tower's new general insurance chief executive, Pieter Lindhout, says.


The general insurance industry would experience only moderate growth of between 3 and 4 per cent over the foreseable future, he said.

Tower reported last month an after-tax profit of $55.3 million for the half year to March.

Profits from the New Zealand general insurance business increased by 25 per cent to $5.5 million.

Profits from house insurance continued to be under pressure because of the escalating cost of building, he said.

"For a lot of claimants when they are making building claims, the cost of materials and labour are making that a very challenging product to make profitable."

Premiums were unlikely to come down "because we seem to be having more than our share of the one in 100 year floods", Mr Lindhout said.

AdvertisementAdvertisementExtreme weather events were likely to occur regularly.

"So the pressures that have always been there around premiums will continue to be there."

The recent Bay of Plenty floods would cost the industry at least $40 million. However, Tower's conservative reinsurance policy meant its exposure was limited to just $2 million, Mr Lindhout said.

Reinsurance costs were unlikely to increase because the events were relatively insignificant on a global scale. Any premium increases would be claims based.

"We don't want to penalise people who are not claiming," he said.

The number of people under-insured or not insured at all, which was as high as 40 per cent in some areas of New Zealand, was of concern.

Mr Lindhout said it may be necessary to develop insurance policies with a lower premium but a higher excess, similar to disaster insurance, to encourage more to insure their property.

"Something which shares the risk more equitably between the insurer and the consumer."

There was a risk that under-insurance and non-insurance could increase as the population aged and retired people could not afford premiums, he said.

Mr Lindhout was appointed general insurance chief executive in April. Tower split its general and life insurance businesses between two chief executives to improve the focus on individual units.

The company would concentrate on turning its high brand awareness into more sales, which was likely to include opening some Tower branches, Mr Lindhout said.

Tower had a market share of 9.7 per cent, making it third largest behind IAG and AMI.

Mr Lindhout said he did not see a buoyant market ahead. "The opportunities to grow are going to be organic for most competitors. And that comes down to competing against each other."

[truedragon]

Any of y'all starting to buying TWR again 2.20 reached on Friday..impressive :D

DISC: Hold TWR and sold down a little bit for profit taking on Fri

[airedale]

Twr is back to about where it was before the AUW spin-off. And AUW is well in profit for those who took their entitlements.

[shayne1]

TWR has been up and down like a yo-yo recently. At 2.08 currently. Good to see it found support at the 2.00 mark and bounced straight back up. Cant see any reason as to selling soon. Want to see what the shareprice does when dividends are resumed.

[Ted2]

AUW going like a train. Another 3c today. Glad I kept and took up rights. TWR looking solid.

Just luv anything GPG involved with. :D:D:D

[airedale]

Hi Ted, recent strength in TWR, despite no Immediate dividend.
CSFB have upgraded on the back of a good outlook.http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2140

[Paper Tiger]

Standard & Poor have modified Towers credit rating.

The announcement talks about narrowing notches and differentials in counterparty credit, but whatever that really means it seems to have given the share price a very necessary kick in the rear.

[airedale]

The chart has recently tested support three times on the 200 day MA. Looks bullish to me. Meanwhile AUW is supplying the cream.

Discl. holding TWR and AUW

[airedale]

There appears to be a triangular flag/pennant forming here. TA theory is that they form half way up the mast.
Discl: holding TWR and AUW

[AbelTasman]

Somebody is chasing Tower right now - up 5 cents to 217 cents in less than an hour

[KJ]

Yes-looks like a good breakout Airedale-TA working.

[truedragon]

What the *@*^ is happening with TWR... the buyer are few and 2 dollar looks like been retetsed..

Somebody know something we don't?

DISC: Hold TWR

[airedale]

Well it looks like my "breakout" has fizzled out.But when TWR re-instate the dividend later this year, watch the price move. I have recently bought more. GPG will surely have plans for TWR, and a lower SP is not one of them.

[Paper Tiger]

So the old share price is down near the NTA again.
I also notice that the OBV is not encouraging.
I fail to understand the markets perception of this company.
I am in the black with my long-term holding on this and there is a few cents to be made trading the swings.
BUT it is trying at times :(

[TheBossMan]

Market's perception? Buggered if I know- but am happy to accumulate at current levels. It appears to be set up as a nice takeover target.

Liquidity seems an issue though. Looking forward to $2.25.

[airedale]

Hi Boss, curious about your liquidity problem. Half a million or more often change hands on the NZX. Similar numbers on the ASX.

[shayne1]

Couple of large trades gone through today:

250,000 $500,000
300,000 $600,000
300,000 $600,000

Someone could be accumulating.

[Paper Tiger]

thats one of the possibilities.

[airedale]

Hi, PT, how does the OBV look today?. 1.25 million on the NZX, and .75 million so far on the ASX, and the SP holding at NZ$ 2.00.It does look like accumulation, not panic selling.

[Paper Tiger]

With the NZ SP staying the same the OBV is unchanged today, but the overall trend is downwards. [V]
$2.00 held and could be a support level [^]
the RSI is just above the 30%(oversold) level. [?]
the MACD is not to my liking :(

I see no reason to assume that it is accumulation or distribution today.

Let us see what tomorrow brings

[TheBossMan]

airedale

half a million $2 maybe OK for NZX, but pretty low for ASX. Also, the trades happen slowly, as buyers are happy to sit on the fence for a while.

Havent checked yet, but I understand that the depth in buy volumes is increasing. Was told by my broker that the interest in TWR is growing; Just a matter of time before we see a surge.

[TheBossMan]

Bounced back quickly to $2.04. Good trading range between $2 and $2.15, but hold on for more....

[airedale]

Bounced off the trend line and 200 day MA today.We may get that elusive breakout yet.

[Paper Tiger]

OBV!

[airedale]

Good morning,PT, indeed we are waiting patiently for OBV confirmation. But a bounce off and support from the 200 day MA is an encouraging sign.

[TheBossMan]

Looking good for $2.15 in 2 days.

[ari]

quote:We may get that elusive breakout yet.
There has been, like many staff being poached by opposition, some wheels falling off??

[airedale]

Hi,ari, what do you base that statement on. Inside info?? as an employee??...or what??

[Paper Tiger]

trading at $2.17 and A$2.01. Gidday heights regained.

[airedale]

Giddy heights indeed,PT, OBV showing higher highs, and higher lows, while creeping up.

[Tumbleweed]

Whats happend to TWR today? up 5c to 2.17 at one point then down to 2.12??

[Paper Tiger]

Next time I will keep quite until the end of the day.

[truedragon]

I think recent TWR uptrend has been short and arguably been broken, and now it appear to be in trading range between 2.2 and 2.

May sell them, if you don't believe in a TO story.
PS: Excuse my poor quality yahoo chart. I am a new to chart

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TWR.NZ&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m20,m200&a=m26-12-9&c=

[scamper]

hello Trued.
i see that the last 10 weeks' prices have just faffed around between 200 and 220, but i wouldn't want to argue that the (post-April) uptrend is over because:
1. the 90-day MA is still rising
2. shareprice still above 90-day MA

but your point about the credibility of a TO story is good. i think news and fundamentals may spring changes with this stock that the charts can't forecast -- i guess i mean that charting may not be much use at the moment with this one, apart from telling you when you should definitely be out! But that time aint yet, according to the chart, imho. Cheers. :)

[airedale]

Hi all, my take on TWR is that it is above the 8 day MA [and of course the 30 day, 90 day,etc].The MACD histogram is still positive.The directional movement index is still positive. The OBV has been creeping up since 19th August. The long term trend line since July '03 is still up. It is still a Hold while waiting for news.

[Paper Tiger]

Just to throw my interpretation into the mix. Chart shows last six months.

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/TWR_20050907.png

Top to bottom we have:
Closing prices with 50, 100 & 200 day MA's none of which have any relevance as far as I am concerned.
ADX and DMI's - OK
MACD - OK(ish)
OBV - green line is a 30 MA, it is going DOWN, this is what continually concerns me.
RSI - currently pretty neutral

I have shown the current and last uptrend. In my opinion the "uptrend since July 03" is only as valid as the downtrend since 4th-Nov-2005 (not shown).

TA wise: well you don't predict the future.
FA wise: a little underpriced, he said hopefully.
Takeover's: Maybe someone will buy it, but they have some cash so maybe they will buy a little something themselves.


Disc: TWR

[Paper Tiger]

Actually the MACD above is not MACD but something else called ?PPI? This is basically the MACD divided by the share price and expressed as a percentage. It makes little practical difference to the above chart, but I thought I would mention it just in case someone wanted to worry about it.

regards

Paper Tiger

[Paper Tiger]

Oh, and for 4th-Nov-2005 please read 4th-Nov-2004.
Disc: Far to late to be attempting accurate posts.

TTFN

[Phaedrus]

I like to look at a long-term chart first. This helps maintain a sense of perspective and shows whether any buy/sell action may be indicated. If need be, you can then zoom in to look for shorter term signals to more accurately time such activity.
No "zoom" is warranted here. TWR is range-bound and the band is too narrow to trade effectively - slippage would see to that. This is not a time to buy OR sell.
TWR has been in a consolidation zone, a rectangle, for about 3 months. These are usually called "trading ranges" but the term is a bit of a misnomer if the range is too narrow to trade profitably. When such formations appear after an uptrend (as in this case) 69% of them will break "up" and 31% of them will break "down". So, while the odds slightly favour an upside breakout, this fact alone is not enough to warrant buying. Keep in mind that these odds are not much better than the 50/50 odds of simply tossing a coin. In other words, this formation has little predictive value. If you wait for the breakout though, the tuation is quite different. Very few breakouts fail - an upside breakout is very likely to continue up and a downside breakout is very likely to continue down.

For those that already own TWR, this makes it a "hold".
Those wanting to buy TWR should wait for an upside breakout.
Those holding should Sell in the event of a downside breakout.

I wouldn't make too much of the OBV gradual downward trend. I would see this as evidence that some slightly larger holders of this stock keep exiting as they become impatient with the on-going sideways movement. Major jumps in the OBV (circled in magenta) provide useful insight though.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TWR98001.gif
Rocket Science Fiction says my posts are patronising and boring. In my opinion they are worse that that - they are repetitive. There is nothing in this post that I haven't said before.
See how the trendline break got you out of this stock well before the meltdown.
See what a significant event the break of long-term support is.
See how the trendline break gave an excellent entry signal not long after the bottom.
Spare a thought for the poor sods that averaged down as TWR fell from $5.50 to $1.10.
See how well TA works.
Yadda yadda yadda.

[Paper Tiger]

Today's announcement. I think this means that they spent some of that cash I fortuitously mentioned last night.


quote:
TWR
08/09/2005
GENERAL

REL: 1322 HRS Tower Limited

GENERAL: TWR: InsuranceLine Market Announcement

TOWER and InsuranceLine enter long term partnership

TOWER announced today that it has entered into a long term life insurance
distribution agreement and acquired an equity interest (A$21m) with
InsuranceLine Holdings Pty Limited. The terms of the agreement are commercial
in confidence.

InsuranceLine and TOWER have successfully distributed life insurance products
since 1999 and this has led to the development of a number of direct marketed
personal risk insurance solutions tailored for middle Australians.

TOWER'S strategy is to grow organically and through aligned partnerships. In
particular, in the life insurance sector in Australia where consumers are
significantly underinsured, TOWER sees additional distribution channels such
as those provided by InsuranceLine as offering significant long term growth
opportunities.

This alliance relationship is strategically important to both TOWER and
InsuranceLine and this alignment of interests will cement the long-term
product development and distribution partnership between the two
organisations. It will enable both organisations to benefit from a sharing of
resources and expertise to support further growth of an already highly
successful relationship.
End CA:00120458 For:TWR Type:GENERAL Time:2005-09-08:13:22:47

[ari]

quote:Hi,ari, what do you base that statement on. Inside info?? as an employee??...or what??
I will neither confirm or deny.....only to say yet another one goes, and not an office junior[:0]

[airedale]

Possibly too many overpaid and underworked top brass?

[rocket science fiction]

nice chart P I love your posts really:D
cheers

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Next time I will keep quite until the end of the day.


I never learn, going ballistic after opening in OZ.

[whatsup]

TWR whatsup somthings up!!!

[shayne1]

A bit of movement with Tower today. Up 4c with volume of 1.1m.

[Paper Tiger]

Good close at $2.20. No end of day sales like with half my current holdings.
Last high towards the end of July was $2.19 so I I guess we are at the top of the trading range.
It would be nice to break out on the upside and see if we can knock the $2.25 level off as well.

[Ted2]

TWR offshoot AUW up 4c on ASX on high end of day volume. Somethings looking good. Good for GPG too!

[Tumbleweed]

could TWR be riding the back of GPG?
I hear they have a fairly sizable stake in TWR
or am I way off the mark.....

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Tumbleweed

could TWR be riding the back of GPG?
I hear they have a fairly sizable stake in TWR
or am I way off the mark.....

you would expect it to be the other way round. GPG goes up because what they own goes up.
I believe that the Oz market is the main driver of the Tower share price and they seem to rush into and out TWR like headless chickens just for the fun of it.
Can't understand them myself.

[floyd]

off to the races this morning.....anyone with ideas why?

[Tumbleweed]

wow up 7c $2.27
would be nice to know whats driving this

[Ted2]

TAKEOVER?????????
Please explain from NZX must be coming soon!


"Dunno why it's goin' up but I Like it Like it yes I do....."
Mick J.

[Ed]

Takeover? Steady on guys! Tower announces around mid-November.

If I was an analyst, I would be looking at the results for IOOF (fund manager / up 58%) AXA (insurer-fund manager/up 36%) Southern Cross (health insurance/record surplus), and thinking about my estimates for TWR/AUW.

This could well be a classic "buy the rumour (estimates)sell the fact (announcement).

[Ted2]

Steady Ed! Just a wind-up! Don't take it so literally. It just seems like the standard 'leaky' syndrome we have in NZ. Stock goes up out of blue - uncharacteristically - no news publicly -usually means someone knows something.

It's also a bit early for the price to start cranking up for a November result.

So - is there a bullish report out somewhere? Or has everyone realised how under-valued it is? Or is there a leak?

I sure don't know - but I like it like it Yes I do!!
Ted :D:D:D

[Ed]

:) Ted, I would like to believe the TO story as much as the next guy! Maybe something is brewing, but "the simplest explanation is usually the best". I do not buy the "leaky" co. story either. Who knows what set the analysts running, but there are a bunch of great results out there, and you would be silly (as an analyst) to not review your position on TWR. You don't want your estimates to be way out of line.

From what I know of TWR folks, probity is of a high standard. Even so, when I was working at a law firm, one of our PLC clients shares shot up ahead of a TO announcement. There was a mini witch hunt to see if there had been a leak from us or an IB we were working with. Turns out, that the buyer was not an insider, but a wiley old fox who had seen the Chairman of our client co. walking out the front door of the law firm of the acquirer. Our "insider" took a hell of a punt that a TO was in the wings, bought the shares in his own name, and when informally approached by the SX (this was when Leloir was running the show), told the whole story (with some pride, I am told). Everyone was too embarrased to do anything about it, and the matter quietly died.

[Ted2]

quote:Originally posted by Ed

:) From what I know of TWR folks, probity is of a high standard. Even so, when I was working at a law firm, one of our PLC clients shares shot up ahead of a TO announcement. There was a mini witch hunt to see if there had been a leak from us or an IB we were working with. Turns out, that the buyer was not an insider, but a wiley old fox who had seen the Chairman of our client co. walking out the front door of the law firm of the acquirer. Our "insider" took a hell of a punt that a TO was in the wings, bought the shares in his own name, and when informally approached by the SX (this was when Leloir was running the show), told the whole story (with some pride, I am told). Everyone was too embarrased to do anything about it, and the matter quietly died.

Ha I love it! We should compile a mugshot book of all Chairmen and CEO's on this site to help for future opportunities!
:D:D

The analysts may have been doing something new (although that would be a change) but we've not had any news yet that anyone has received an analysts report with a raging buy. And a 15-16c movement in 2 days requires more than just an 'accumulate". Actually even an analysts raging buy wouldn't induce this sort of movement.

So I'm still lost.

Its still going up and I like it Like it - Yes I do!! :D:D

[Ed]

CEO/CFO Mugshots? Great idea.

Why have you not heard of the analyst upgrades? Because they are shared with the instos and large private clients first, then the less valuable private clients, then they are published on the website.....Then the discount brokers and (some) tip sheets do a copy and paste.....

[Phaedrus]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/TWR914001.gif

[airedale]

[quote]Originally posted by airedale

Well it looks like my "breakout" has fizzled out.But when TWR re-instate the dividend later this year, watch the price move. I have recently bought more. GPG will surely have plans for TWR, and a lower SP is not one of them.[quote]


Well, and so it came to pass.Maybe the divi is waiting in the wings.

[truedragon]

Are there any other technical indicator other then the trend line break to offer furhter insight on this breakout?

DISC: Hold TWR

[floyd]

closed at 2.19 on the asx so we may see a nice open on the nzx monday morning.

[Phaedrus]

TD,
Here are a few examples of indicators that could be used to monitor TWR's uptrend. Don't discount trendlines though - they are one of the best methods, in spite of being the simplest of all.
(1) Short-term trendline (Light green)
(2) Medium-term trendline (Green)
(3) 100 day Simple Moving average (Blue)
(4) Trailing Stop. (Magenta) The one plotted here is ATR volatility based. I appreciate that not everyone has access to this type of indicator but this need not be a problem because a 9% Trailing Stop is a close equivalent in this instance. Just subtract 9% from the highest high and sell if price action drops below this level.
Keep an eye on the OBV plot. These often give early warning of trend changes. You can see that the OBV has now begun to trend up.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TWR917001.gif

[truedragon]

Thank Phaedrus,

I also think it TWR can break 2.50 which is the prevoius high achieved for sometimes, it will be another bullish signal.

DIS:Hold

[airedale]

Hi TD, There are a few reasons for it to go higher,but we may see a period of consolidation between 2.25 and 2.35 before it tests previous highs. And subject to normal market buffeting it may drop. As Phaedrus says ....watch your stops....

[Nevl]

That high has being broken as it was pre the spin off. The equivalent high was 2.28. Well above that now.

[truedragon]

Nevl, thanks for pointing that out ;)

[Paper Tiger]

Disagree totally with you Nevl the pre spin-off high was $2.48 and the change as a result of said spin-off was a few cents:


quote:Orginally posted by Paper Tiger on 13/02/2005 Page 58

In theory, the technicality of the split/capital reduction happened a week ago. The figure of 356m shares is the result of cancelling 13.5%. Also the SP was amended down 2.6cps on Monday opening and any shares traded did not have the AWM entitlement attached.


So I would suggest that the equivalent high price is $2.45.

[Nevl]

The $2.28 was taken from a Sunday star times article done at the time of the spinoff. I think it was taken from the amount of shares cancelled and then taking off the value of shares given in AUW. Add 17% to the share price minus the amount of free shares in AUW times the price of 0.8 Aus $ . That gives a post spin valuation. The price of TWR was about 180 after the spinoff so $2.28 seems about right.

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Nevl

The $2.28 was taken from a Sunday star times article done at the time of the spinoff. I think it was taken from the amount of shares cancelled and then taking off the value of shares given in AUW. Add 17% to the share price minus the amount of free shares in AUW times the price of 0.8 Aus $ . That gives a post spin valuation. The price of TWR was about 180 after the spinoff so $2.28 seems about right.


Without wanting to start an argument... What a load of rubbish, but then what do you expect from the SST?
Has I said before the Share Price was adjusted by 2.6cps on the split. That was the number, not that of some drunken journalist hitting the keys of the TV remote under the impression that it was a calculator.

regards

Paper Tiger.

PS the closing price of tower on 11/02/05 was $2.09, on the 14/02/05 was $2.14

[Tumbleweed]

Did many Peaple sell at $2.40
I see today its taking abit of a hamering.

[truedragon]

I think the whole market decline.
The oil and gold sector got hit even worse [:o)]

Disc: hold TWR sold a few at 2.30

[scamper]

Good grief! What a thud! twr down 5%+ and about 30 shares have lost more than 3%, and there is only a dozen rises.
why has the market got the pip? i think i must have missed some news -- it seems that this is well outside normal fluctuations...

[truedragon]

scamper

the market was spooked by the inflation / rising interest rate concern in US. DOW dip like over 1% yesterday and I think dip again today.

[Paper Tiger]

Still above the uptrend line :), and also under-valued :)

Disc: biased [8D]

[airedale]

As you say, Tiger, still above the two year trend line. October 7th 2003 closed at NZ$1.17.
October 7th 2005 closed at NZ$1.98. Up 70% over two years, plus a bit of cream from AUW spin-off as well.
Discl: Holding TWR

[airedale]

Tower up 10 cents on the NZX. Big jump for a Friday against the rest of the market.

[truedragon]

It's like a freaking sauna... up 10 cent down 10 cent and then up 10 cent. What the F is up.

DIS: TWR

[truedragon]

The volume has pick up a little though which is good and RSI look like a little bit oversold, so may be this run will sustained.

DISC: Hold

[Paper Tiger]

OBV is good, but the Share Price is up and down like a whore's undies.

[gulf]

Nice bit on TV 1 this morning TWR fund manager of the year - a positive interview with the manager.Good stuff.

[whatsup]

Market doesnt like todays announcement off .12 after 1 hour, not looking good!!!

[floyd]

its ugly....chk out the aussie market

[Ted2]

Can someone with more accounting knowledge than me explain? The announcement seem not bad at all. Up large % except for the Risk businesses being down.
Is it the underlying 'what's not said' that's scaring everyone?

Ta

[FYA4999]

I was thinking about getting into this stock the other day - lucky I stayed out. I thought the herd that was pushing the price of this stock up a few weeks ago, knew something I didn't. Well its clear they didn't. Massive drop today, may find support around $1.80. Otherwise....its a long way down.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Ted2

Can someone with more accounting knowledge than me explain? The announcement seem not bad at all. Up large % except for the Risk businesses being down.
Is it the underlying 'what's not said' that's scaring everyone?

Ta


Ted ... your guess is as good as mine .... god knows what they are trying to say

Suppose the part that means the most is that operating earnings from continuing businesses is about $30M ... ie 8 cents a share ... YUK

Note how much investment income has a bearing on the result ... a bad equity market over the next 12 months and even more YUK

Service levels .... all abour staff morale .... just ring the main switchboard at Customhouse Quay and ask how many staff have left lately and how happy those remaining are ... remember i suggested a few months ago those really interested in Towers prospects should do this

[biker]

Reasonable buying at these levels IMHO.In at $1.85

[tsb]

Thats what we want Biker - a bit of positive thinking

[Paper Tiger]

OK I have read todays announcement, I have had a look at the end of the day share price, I have re-read the half year report and I have done some sums.
Now the fly in the ointment with this one is that the figures quoted today exclude revaluations and goodwill.

At half year we had $55.3m consisting of:
$28.6m from AWM (profit and gain on sale), this is a one-off
$5.9m from revaluations and amortisations
and thus $20.8m from operating and investing.

So end of year is going to be
$40-43m from operating and investing
? from revaluations and amortisations, let us choose $11.8 (twice $5.9)
and $28.6m from AWM

giving $80.4 to $83.4m, or
$51.8 to $54.8m for continuing activities.

I have seen this number bandied about many months ago by some analysts and me:). But it all depends on those revaluations.

Last year AWM added $16.7m to the profit figure so the equivalent is
$37.9m

So much for the numbers. Now the New Zealand risk business appears to have gone to the dogs with a second half profit $8m less than the $9.2m at half year. How the heck was that allowed to happen? :(

PS I did stick a buy order in today but the SP never got down to it. Still there is always tomorrow. [:o)]

PPS. The NTA is probably still in the $1.90-$2.00 range. ;)

[Footsie]

Long time no speak - back out of the woodwork.

It looks like a one off issue, which the coy claims they have under control.
I'm sure GPG wont allow TWR to flounder.

Also what about the sale of the Wellington bldg. Will that be in the result?

How about the return of divvie's or a special div. Realistically isnt that want GPG want. Turn the coy around, flick of some assets, pay yourself a div - then sell up for a tidy profit.

My guess is the s/p will drop to 1.75 (previous 12mnth low) b4 bargain hunters appear. The stock will then bounce and climb back into the 1.90's as value investors appear. Depending on what the div policy is at the result and further clarificationon the risk biz the stock may well rally back through $2.00 before the end of the mnth.

However i can see no reason why it would fall below A1.60 (stock now appears to be priced out of Aussie)

DISC - have a sizeable stake and will be holding till the result.

FTSE

[winner69]

PT - Tower have never been very clear about what they are talking about .... do you think it is a ploy to confuse the likes of you and me.

In the AWM spin off presos Tower said that the proforma FY04 NPAT was $42M - ie that is what the business as it is today made last year

Surely to save confusion and all that they could have just come out and said that this year NPAT was going to be $XM .... without this nebulous number of $40M odd before revaluations etc

One thing that must be a worry is operating earnings of continuing operations ... they say $30M for the full year .... half year was $20M .... so the second half appears to have been pretty awful ... esp for a so called turn around.

You might be right with that $50M you calculated .... if it is this high that is about 14 cents a share .... enough to support 186 I suppose

The future ... those 'service' issues are real ... they have lost business which just doesn't affect todays profits but the future as well ... doubt if those customers will go back.

Is the service issue fixed? Go and have a drink where these Tower guys hang out on a friday night and listen to them ... must be a pretty depressing place to work

The latest announcement also highlights how much investment returns plays in generating profits (more so then other insurers I think). Not a good sign when Tower disappoints the market and fails to deliver to expectations when equity markets have had such a good run ... what would have happened if the markets had been flat?

Turnaround story ... still to be demonstrated ... and market conditions have been pretty good for insurers like Tower .... so next year might be even tougher

Look forward to what they say later this month ...

In the meantime what do think will happen to the shareprice PT ... your order might be filled yet?

[whatsup]

I'd say that the real immediate future for TWR is a take over, by whom IM not sure ,any thaughts as GPG wont want another Turners on its hands

[whatsup]

..

[winner69]

Promina would be a logical acquiror .... but then Gibbs hasn't yet been able to convince his mates at Suncorp to take this on

[kiwikauri]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie


Also what about the sale of the Wellington bldg. Will that be in the result?


Footsie - as I recall the head office building was owned by policyholders (not shareholders). So accordingly to complex accounting/actuarial rules, the shareholder only enjoys its share of the proceeds/profits on sale of the building... about 20% as I once had it explained to me...



So

[winner69]

SMH quote ....Tower's operating earnings forecast for the full year of $NZ30.5 million to $NZ32.5 million is about $NZ12 million below analysts' expectations.

That $12M 'shortfall' is nearly 30% below analysts expectations

Paper tiger ... hold on with that buy order ... a lot of aussie players were at the races yesterday ... and they hate being disappointed ... or as the story goes "It is quite unsettling. We knew they were having difficulties with this but the depth of these problems [b]surprises[/b[." ... analysts hate surprises


http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/tower-issues-a-fresh-warning/2005/11/01/1130823206134.html

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Footsie


.... How about the return of divvie's or a special div.

FTSE


Mr Lim says divie unlikely Footsie .... Mr Lim said a return to a dividend also appeared unlikely this year.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3464329a13,00.html

Lim obviously a bit peeved that the turnaround he believed in "is not really happening'

Who do you believe?





and whats this about a special divie?

[Paper Tiger]

quote:orginally posted by winner69
Paper tiger ... hold on with that buy order


Well I am back in, after the opening rush.
They are up for sale if anyone wants to push the price back up.
Hopefully this will be as successful as my other short term trades in this share. (And to be honest, more successful than my buy and hold).

[winner69]

PT ... good call ... looking good today ... in the money already

[ananda77]

Paper Tiger:

No idea why the hurry buying in...there is a strong support @175...and it will go there...and unless the share will rebound with strong volume over time...anything else is too early.

Kind Regards

[Footsie]

Like I said y'day

The stock will fall to 1.73-1.75 exact price Dependent on AUD ex rate.

This is where the support level is. Currently it's in no-mans land.

I expect buying from retail and some insto's at this level.
plus the lower the price the more attractive it becomes as a takeover target. They are still making $ and on a PE of 8 (incl asset sales), and say 15 for core business - at these levels.

Arthur Lim's comment about the div is wrong in my opinion. When the director was questioned he declined to comment on the dividend policy.
To me, this me that something is in the wind. otherwise why would you decline to comment. Their current policy is no div - if this hadnt changed he would have said something like "There has been no change" "It is yet to be decided when we will return to div payments"

REad between the lines. The want to keep a sweetener for the result. The only reason they came out y'day was analyts were too high in their estimates and under cont disc, you have to keep the mrkt informed if they are at odds with performance.

[Paper Tiger]

a77: By short term, I mean short term.
However I am not convinced that selling them all again was the most profitable move.
Hopefully there will be another drop when Oz opens and a few cents recovery.

PS Don't often have time to play this game these days. Fun isn't it.

[ananda77]

T+3 Fun!!

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by ananda77

T+3 Fun!!

T+2 out T+3 in, it's only missing for a day.


$1.7 holding in Oz, $1.83 in Nz, never mind [B)]

[ananda77]

Paper Tiger:

Have a cfd-call (5% dep.on twr) pending on the asx @A$1.65. See how it goes.

Kind Regards

[Paper Tiger]

Ananda77
Well I hope it pans out for you. If it gets there I will be back in hoping for the rebound.

regards

Paper Tiger

[gulf]

Tower is going to need some decent PR before the Nov 25 final results are released,otherwise the sp will have very little support.GPG will not be happy with the recovery delay,this has probably put them back 12 months in moving Tower on.Also I think they were trying to be a little clever in the timing of yesterdays announcement on Melbourne cup day .

[ananda77]

Close @A$1.63 on the asx.

Seems that gulf's view of minimal support for twr is the correct one at this stage.

...still in the running as I could cancel above contract in time. Might be better to head Phaedrus's advice and not try to bottom-fish.

Kind Regards

[Paper Tiger]

It was a strange close 1.66 then suddenly 1.63 literally at close with nothing inbetween.
According to the Paper Tiger Three Day Rule the absolute low from this announcement should be tomorrow.

So is $1.63 no good to you ananda77 ?

[airedale]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

Tower is going to need some decent PR before the Nov 25 final results are released,otherwise the sp will have very little support.GPG will not be happy with the recovery delay,this has probably put them back 12 months in moving Tower on.Also I think they were trying to be a little clever in the timing of yesterdays announcement on Melbourne cup day .


GPG have a seat on the Tower board, so it wouldn't be a surprise for them.
Don't think that there is any point in selling now. The news is out. The worst is over.

[ananda77]

Paper Tiger:

I had to leave home at 3:30pm and therefore could not see the close of the trading...and I do not leave an order unattended without watching it.

So is $1.63 no good to you ananda77 ?

That's not the problem -good or not good- wait and see!

Kind Regards

[Footsie]

profit is going to be $8-10m below expectations which is roughly 18-19% below previous forecasts.

SP has now fallen from 2.15 to 1.79 which is 16.7%....
If it reaches 1.73 as I have mentioned before... thats 19.5%
crude I know... but I figure this will be the absolute low...
Papertiger. Seems to fit with your 3-day rule.

If i wasnt so long i'd put in a buy at say 1.75 today and hope to flick it next week for 1.90 odd

nice 10%

[CJ]

Footsie : your 19% assumes a constant P/E. If the recover everyone thought was gong to happen doesn't, that P/E ratio will change.

Not saying it will though.

[Paper Tiger]

End of year is a week away and it looks like the (OZ) speculators are starting to move in on TWR, given the close over the last two days.
No guarantees (it is a share market after all) but there may be a few more cents between now and next Wednesday. The result comes out Thursday, what it is and how the market takes it I don't know.

[truedragon]

What result coming out on Thursday?
I held a truck load of tower and not due to any intelligence but shear luck sold out around the 2 dolloar mark and the remaining little bit @179 a while back. I put the money in gold shares in Oz.. and looking at the gold price today... I think I am really lucky there. I think commodity, base metal, gold market even oil represent a better opportunity to make quick buck then TWR IMHO.

DISC: Hold none.

[rmbbrave]

24 Nov 2005 10:35
FLLYR: TWR: TOWER Limited Full Year Financial Results to 30 September 05

TOWER Limited Full Year Financial Results to 30 September 05

TOWER''s Operating Profit up 67% to NZ$43 million

TOWER Limited today reported strong operating earnings growth for the
Financial Year ended 30 September 2005 with NPAT (excluding revaluations,
amortisations and revenue from the spin-off of Australian Wealth Management)
of NZ$42.7 million, up 67%.

The result was at the upper end of the guidance range announced this month
and in line with revised market expectations.

The total NPAT for the 2005 year was NZ$97.8 million which included a NZ$23
million gain on the sale of AWM. This was an increase of 79% compared with
2004.

Earnings per share - excluding the profit on the sale of AWM, goodwill,
amortisation and revaluations - increased by 82% from NZ6.2 cents to NZ11.3
cents.

In line with a prudent capital management program to support future growth
and while final details of International Financial Reporting Standards are
being worked through, the Board of Directors has decided there will be no
dividend for the reporting period.

[Gryffyn]

I wonder whether GPG are div averse? They are sitting pretty cash-rich at the moment and probably don't need extra in the coffers so in their interests to defer div payments?

Disc: GPG

[tsb]

auw jumped to A$1.26 with unbundleing and spinoff's mentioned

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

I wonder whether GPG are div averse? They are sitting pretty cash-rich at the moment and probably don't need extra in the coffers so in their interests to defer div payments?

Announcement mentions IFRS in same sentence as dividends. Might mean IFRS will have a large balance sheet effect which will effect banking covenants so they need to retain the cash to shore up balance sheet. Last this they need is a credit down grade.

[Paper Tiger]

The opening rush this morning has bought all the shares I bought earlier this week.
I feel an extra orange juice may be in order today.

PS I think IFRS is more likely to be the excuse for not paying a divvy as opposed to the reason.
I note that AUW are not paying out either.

[Paper Tiger]

Just hit $1.99, should have waited a little and more than doubled my profit on the back of the exhuberence of the masses.
Apparently JPMorgan have gone all-bullish on Tower.

[Westie]

I've been doing the "unthinkable" & continually averaging down on TWR. Now i'm not doing too badly.

Regards the dividend, if you keep the cash & clean up the balance sheet your company becomes a more attractive takeover target. Alternatively, you can use your balance sheet to acquire someone else. As long as GPG is around, I wouldn't expect TWR to pay a dividend as I think GPG have alternative uses for TWR's cash in line with their ultimate endgame.

[rmbbrave]

I bought some yesterday @ 1.88 and some FPH too @ 3.56.

It's been a while since 2 decisions have paid off so handsomely, so quickly.

[Paper Tiger]

congrats rmbbrave: now whats your exit strategy?

It's a strange share this one, I bought some at $1.93 last december for the long term portfolio and have added to that on a couple of occaisions sub $1.80 and am thus in the money tonight.

More successfully I have short term traded this since April. However my least successful trade was selling out today at $1.92 for a mere reasonable profit. No way did I expect this sort of market reaction to the result announced yesterday. I thought that the drop at the beginning of the month was a bit of an over-reaction to the profit advisory and now I think this rise is rather extreme the other way, which at the end of the day is what makes this a good trader.

I always keep threatening to get rid of the long term holding, but I still have this belief that there is life in the old dog yet.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

congrats rmbbrave: now whats your exit strategy?



I'll sell when it stops going up.

eg.

Mon up 3
Tuesday up 2
Wed up 1
Thurs flat
Fri rmbbrave SELLS.

Of course I'll be lucky if the SP is so predictable.

It will probably be something like this:

Monday up 4
Tues down 4
Wed up 4
Thurs down 16
Fri rmbbrave sells for a small profit, (If I'm lucky)

[winner69]

Always interesting to hear the views of Aust analysts on the likes of TWr ... more clued up on these sort of comapnaies and no country bias or love of GPG bias.

One such report says that while the medium-term outlook for TWR is positive the unexpected downward revision in FY05 operating earnings has increased the level of uncertainty and risk surrounding the TWR's recovery story. Even though this report said they expected TWR to achieve solid earnings growth over the next few years and this will support the share price they consider the current pricing already reflects
TWR’s growth outlook.

To get onvestors excited you need a good story and this report sort of suggests that such a good story does not exist ... a story of continually winning and some certainty about achiving what has been promised

Investors continually winning ... NO ... the report points out that TWR has not delivered growth in shareholder value over FY05. The relatively strong recovery achieved in FY04 faltered in FY05 and although the ASX All Ordinaries Index increased by 23% over the past 15 months, the TWR stock price is currently trading at levels similar to those at the end of July 2004.

Meeting expectations and no surprises .... NO ... the core businesses (particularly the NZ insurance business) were expected to be in a stronger shape by the end of FY05 to really start driving earnings growth in FY06. Unfortunately, this is now not the case, even though TWR had said six months ago that it was well advanced in it’s recovery. TWR will have to recover both financially and reputationally from this setback to restore investor confidence in its future prospects.


That reputation thing is important and TWR have not done themselves any good by having some major hiccups along the way.

On my watchlist but not at the moment, mainly because of so many downside risks

[winner69]

Tower premiums rising to meet costs
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3494388a13,00.html

Great news (for shareholders) seeing they expect premiums to remain competitive (ie we wont lose any business)

At least there is a sense of realism when they say that "And you have to start with happy customers, otherwise you don't have a business."

What nust be of concern is this is the first time they have publicly used the word 'terrible' about how far they had let service standards slip

From the comments made one feels that these are far from fixed.

Remember the need to have 'happy customers' ... wel they pissed many off over the last year and whats the old adage about never going back there again

I do wonder how much long term damage was done and this is not always recoverable quickly

Will have to wait for a while before we find out ... wonder if they continue to make losses on their general and medical insurance books ... like they have for the last six months

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

congrats rmbbrave: now whats your exit strategy?



I'll sell when it stops going up.

eg.

Mon up 3
Tuesday up 2
Wed up 1
Thurs flat
Fri rmbbrave SELLS.

Of course I'll be lucky if the SP is so predictable.

It will probably be something like this:

Monday up 4
Tues down 4
Wed up 4
Thurs down 16
Fri rmbbrave sells for a small profit, (If I'm lucky)


Exit Strategy thwarted by ASB!

I had to send an email to the ASB to put my TWR up for sale at 1.98 because their internet broking site is down. By the time the shares were put up on the board the SP had fallen to 1.96. If I want to lower my price I have to send another email.

MENDOK-SAI !!!!

[scamper]

eeks, brave one.
I don't think this is the case. I frequently ring them and give verbal instructions -- they don't seem to mind as long as you don't ask for advice.
try phoning 0800-272-732 -- all the staff have been equally helpful -- just give your internet customer number and i.d.. good luck.

[rmbbrave]

Thanks Scamper,

But 0800 numbers don't work from overseas.

Paying for a phone call from Japan eats into my profits especially if I have to listen to "Greensleves" before I get to talk to a person.

As the market depth shows buy at 1.97 and sell at 1.99 but nothing at 1.98 I am guessing they have gone but I haven't had an email confirmation.

Perhaps the problems with ASB's site includes email confirmations.

[scamper]

Sorry 'bout that. what a nuisance. stay warm in japan. cheers, scamper.

[airedale]

The saga looks set to continue, if Tower are in the right position for "industry cosolidation".

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/insurers-on-merger-path-in-global-run-for-cover/2006/05/07/1146940410081.html

[Paper Tiger]

Enjoying the current SP strength, the annualised return currently looks good in the long term hold spreadsheet. :)
However I kind of think that the trading shares I bought at $1.80 last November should not have been sold so soon. :(.

Win some, lose some, learn along the way.

[airedale]

quote:Originally posted by airedale

In the first week of November '02, the price gapped down from $3.50 to $2.15.We could be about to see a gradual climb up to fill that gap. Of course the market giveth,but may also taketh away. But another 62% would be most welcome.
Discl.Holding TWR


Nearly there....I hope. PT, I remember you dipping your toe in the water....was it a year ago. Good trade.

[DCski13]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Enjoying the current SP strength, the annualised return currently looks good in the long term hold spreadsheet. :)
However I kind of think that the trading shares I bought at $1.80 last November should not have been sold so soon. :(.

Win some, lose some, learn along the way.


ABSOLUTELY! I'm up 62% and enjoying the ride [:p] :D [:p]

[George]

When the sp hit 3.00, RSI made a lower high which is supposed to be bearish. Since then it has made lower highs - does this mean some short term weakness or is RSI another of those contradictory indicators which can't be relied on.

[Paper Tiger]

TWR is:
in an uptrend
OBV is rising
RSI is still above 50%

I am not sure that a lower higher is much without a lower low to follow it.

perhaps you should worry about the PPO instead ;)

[Phaedrus]

George, Divergences such as you describe are indeed Bearish and usually provide fairly reliable signals. As you have noticed, TWR has been in a downtrend for 2 weeks since the divergence, so this one was spot-on. Only very active traders would act on such a signal in isolation though. I would think that most people here would be following the underlying "medium-term" trend which is still very much intact.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/TWR526001.gif