TWR, The Saga Continues - from 01.01.2004

[belgarion]

http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=17386&whichpage=42

Continued ....

[belgarion]

Seems that worldwide fund inflows are back in positive territory ... Bodes well for TWR, AMP, etc.

Stock Funds Collected $14.9 Bil In Nov (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031231/funds_1.html)

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Seems that worldwide fund inflows are back in positive territory ... Bodes well for TWR, AMP, etc.

Stock Funds Collected $14.9 Bil In Nov (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031231/funds_1.html)


A recent analysis in Australia reveals these inflows are not evenly distributed:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/11/06/1068013330057.html?from=storyrhs

In fact, some funds are still recording net outflows, eg CBA/Colonial, BT/Westpac, and Perpetual. But good net inflows for AMP, NAB and AXA.

I suspect the pattern would be similar for NZ. No mention of TWR.

SEC

[belgarion]

Seems to be quite a bit of interest in TWR today ... Given that no 2004 broker picks included any financial companies ... could these be the wildcards of 2004?

Is there any news out their Ive missed over the break?

[LeBOJ]

As a general rule TWR tracks Australia, which closed slightly higher on Friday. As with most dual listed stocks, this is due to arbitrage.

I don't know the reason for the rise in Australia, but NZ is the tail on the bum of Australia's dog, and goes where it leads.;)

[truedragon]

God have mercy on TWR investor this year mate.

$3 by year end may be....[:p][8D]

DISC: Hold TWR (lots of them) and fingers crossed ;)

[belgarion]

Tower's board delivers a New Year cheer-up (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/businessstorydisplay.cfm?storyID=3542253)

That'll shuffle things along today. TWR is problably going to be a great trading stock this year. I'd guess you'll be able to double the 12-month gain by playing the highs and lows on the way up.

TD, With ya mate! (I'm going for 2.10 by 31/12/2004 tho)

[OldRider]

BELG: Let us share your knowlege.How do you make that line in your post above a link.It is better in every way I think,compared to what I do

[Risk]

Oldrider, typing:
try this link

would result in this:
try this link (www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/)

[Gryffyn]

Useful tip. And speaking of tips, although brokers weren't picking TWR in their new years guesses some mentioned that it was a punt with a possible big upside.

Given that Hanover and GPG have over 25% between them I'd say good money is on a return to profits this year.

Disc - got quiet a few and considering more.

[belgarion]

TWR is trading so tightly between the bollinger bands ... and top point is now about 1.29 and, guess what, resistance appears in the mrkt depth at .... wait for it .... 1.29 ... Will a breakout come? Methinks it just might ;) ... Any real chartist have a view? (belgie's only about halfway through his christmas reading [:I])

Technical Analysis - Tower Ltd (TWR.NZ) (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TWR.NZ&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=b&a=&c=)

[Risk]

Belg, yes, the bolinger bands have contracted, which shows that price recently has been less volatile than in the past...but since we just had a holiday period, personally Im not reading too much into that.

$1.29 today, like you say: touches the top band.
However, this does not necessarily indicate a breakout, since in most cases we can expect a retracement to the mean.

volume is picking up again, on increasing price...which shows that buyers are becoming interested once again. But unless price goes to $1.30 and above on good volume, than I wont be buying just yet...since this one is definetely not in a confirmed uptrend yet.

[belgarion]

Thanks Risk, Advice noted.

[Risk]

he he...that wasnt advice, that was just my opinion...and all these buyers today obviously have a different opinion!

(There seems to be an undisclosed seller @ $1.30...and this morning Im sure I saw an undisclosed buyer @ $1.23...so TWR is definetely one to keep an eye on.)

[belgarion]

Okay then, your 'opinion' noted ... ;) ... my opinion already stated ;) ... my actions, however, remain 'undisclosed' ... [8D]

[Smeagol]

quote:Originally posted by Risk

There seems to be an undisclosed seller @ $1.30...


Sorry if I appear a bit dim, but what is an undisclosed buyer/seller?

Obviously they haven't disclosed who they are. Is this to avoid market fluctuation based on their actions, if their identity was known?

[truedragon]

Read the little rally from the board.

They had 270 on 100k+ paycheck. that's at least 30 mil man considering a portion will be on 120-200k. I wonder what's their annual pay on salary - 80mil??

The fact that they are emphsizing that there is still a long way to go in the "2 year" recovery indicates this big and fat corp also is losing some excess fat is far from lean and mean. Just my gut feeling.... and I don't personally expect them to pay dividend soon as reading between the lines that they want to restore strenghth on their balance sheet etc.

However fat and slow it may be, it's going to prosper from the appreciating world index that's looking so good so far this year and the fact there could be a potential T/O. I think if the new management shake up is implemented smoothly, the effect will truly be felt say another 3-6 months.

What I am trying to say is that I believe there will be a lot of investor like myself who may already hold a lot of TWR but waiting to see a clear indication of a turn around on the HY ended March and a true turn around on FY ended Sep. Then provided the surrouding operating environment remains favourable by end of 2004 which is highly possible as this bull should stick around for a while, a growth phase lead by a leaner and more focus team and the big appreciation before the HY March 2005.

So I am with belg on this year been perhaps more volatile and if TWR prove its worthyness a true appreciatin and T/O offer surfaces, quick if this year, slower turn around means later date and a no turn around means we are screwed... lol

Disc: hold Twr
[8D]

[belgarion]

I note that the excitement is limited to the NZX ... on the ASX nothing is happening ... at all [8)]

[Risk]

Smeagol, When you look at the Depth for a stock sometimes you see a +U at some levels.

This means that the bid/offer is worth more than $100,000 but the exact number have not been disclosed to the market and the totals are therefore not included in the depth.

So for TWR, someone is wanting to sell at least $100,000 worth of shares at $1.30. maybe $1million ...maybe $10million?? who knows.

Note: that sometimes this is abused, since the seller could remove his order at anytime. so you never really know if they are serious. but the same can be said for all the other bids.

If there is a serious seller trying to sell lots at $1.30, it means that the share price is going to find resistance at that level until someone buys all those shares.

I just look at the depth queue to get an idea on the potential demand/supply at a given time...but it is only a very rough idea.
The only true indication of demand/supply is the actual share price!

[Smeagol]

quote:Originally posted by Risk

When you look at the Depth for a stock sometimes you see a +U at some levels.

Ah, yes I've seen that. Thank you, that explains things nicely. I still have a question regarding Depth itself, but that can wait for a new thread.

Cheers :)

[belgarion]

Breakout? Or too earley to say? [:I]

Belgarion, Trainee TA [:o)]

[Risk]

Only time will tell.

But it has broken through $1.30 today, and depth looks good on the buy side...so I'm dipping my toes in the water, and just purchased some myself.
Hopefully no sharks around!

[Gryffyn]

Up on good volume already.

Nice to have you aboard Risk - look forward to regular TA updates although myself and others are here for the big turn-around and not the trades.

Does anyone know the most recent NTA for TWR?

[scamper]

Happy New Year to the trainee TA and All!
I reckon that Slow Stochastic is a better and faster indicator (historically) with this share than Bollies, which are a bit delayed.

My current read is that a breakout is imminent (warning -- I've been a trainee TA for years and still get it wrong). MACD, RSI and PAR are all positive.

The price is nudging the 50-day MA, but the conservative may want the 20-day MA to move up through it, given that there have been interrupted weeks, year-end window-dressing etc.

Cautionary note from the W%R which shows overbought -- but I don't really understand this indicator, it often seems at variance with t'others. Can anyone help me out re W%R?

Re Undisclosed buyers & sellers on depth charts: ASB securities either does not acknowledge these or it reveals them. Currently ASB shows 81k for sale at 131c, and 173k buyers at 130c.

All-in-all, looking good. Scamper holds, and may yet turn out to be happy about it.

[willy_wonker]

Good analysis Scamper.

I am also a happy TWR holder.:)

May have to buy some Below 42 Manuka Honey to celebrate the TWR share price soon. Here's hoping.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

Good analysis Scamper.

I am also a happy TWR holder.:)

May have to buy some Below 42 Manuka Honey to celebrate the TWR share price soon. Here's hoping.


somebody once said that an investor or trader who hoped lived in it ...

disc. hold TWR :O)

[Smeagol]

Nice Scamper.

From what I can tell the RSI is moving towards overbrought too.

Disc: Holder.

[truedragon]

Very happy to see TWR getting 1.31:D
With over 200k of this share I am not buying more until I see concrete turn around signal on May... but with just about all my doll in this co... every cent it moves effects the whole portofolio so I am very happy to see the price appreciation on good volume. Go babe. Do is for Papa ..hehe[8D]

[truedragon]

Interesting article, IAG and QBE been single out as to do well in the general insurance sector. No mention of TWR but I guess they are too small to be mentioned in Oz but should benefit from the same rising premium. Does any body here know how much "technical reserve" TWR has in the sharemarket? And if it has benefit hugely from 2003's share rise etc. As I noted that AIG profit increase significantly riding on the share appreciation of its "techinical reserve".

Good times return to insurance sector

By Anthony Hughes
January 8, 2004

The combination of rising share markets and insurance premiums has restored confidence in the general insurance sector after corporate collapses and big losses turned it into a dangerous sector to invest in during the past five years.

Major players Insurance Australia Group, Suncorp-Metway and Promina this week enjoyed new year market earnings upgrades as analysts factored in the benefit of the improved sharemarket.

On Tuesday, UBS lifted its first half earnings forecast for IAG (to report in February) from $228 million to $304 million, due solely to the impact of the better sharemarket on the company's shareholders funds, which are mostly in shares.

The brokers' IAG valuation rose from $4.30 to $4.35, compared with IAG's 1c lower close of $4.24. IAG was one of the stars of 2003, rising 55 per cent, but investors are wary that all the good news may be factored into prices.

However, UBS said: "Priced at 10.9 times 2005 earnings we continue to believe that IAG provides the best investment opportunity in the sector. We believe continued strong growth in earnings and prospect of action on the capital front will support the stock."

advertisement

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Yesterday it was the turn of Suncorp and Promina, albeit both are much less leveraged to better sharemarkets than IAG.

UBS lifted its Suncorp first-half earnings forecast by $9 million to $258 million, while Promina's forecasts rose by 2 per cent to $286 million for the year to December 31.

Suncorp closed 5c lower at $12.30 and Promina was down 2c at $3.22.

Despite some storm activity and other claims-generating events in the final quarter, the insurers have enjoyed buoyant underwriting conditions (good weather has reduced the number of car crashes) and rising premiums.

The bad news for investors is that the increases in earnings forecasts might have been much greater had these insurers not steered clear of putting much of their capital in the sharemarket.

In the past year, both Suncorp and IAG have reduced their equities positions held in "technical reserves", the investments held to support balance sheet provisions for outstanding claims, while Promina still has most of its capital in fixed interest investments.

This change reflects a view that holding too big an equities position adds too much volatility to earnings and the focus should be on underwriting profits.

Constellation Capital Management's Peter Vann said: "As a business, general insurance is going to continue to be quite reasonable and the cycle is probably going to be less volatile."

Dr Vann rated QBE, which has international standing, as the most attractive stock in the sector because of its reserving and growth agenda, while IAG looked fully priced and was constrained in its growth by its already dominant position in personal insurance in Australia.

[grumpy]

Sorry to get to this so late, gryffyn, but re
>> Does anyone know the most recent NTA for TWR? <<
the companies latest accounts (ending Sep 03) state NZ$1.90 as NTA.

[Gryffyn]

Cheers Grumpy.

[truedragon]

second last is not good...[:0]
I used to think the TWR do pretty good in return compare with other fund .... but I guess that was base on old impression and obviously did not reflect the 2003 result.

[belgarion]

TD, I think they were lightly weighted in stocks and overweight in bonds ... Not a fund holder so not asolutely sure ... think I got this impression from 2002/3 accounts?

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by cantab

Interesting to see how Australian super fund managers performed during calendar 2003.

Top was BGI at 12.1%, second was BT at 11.0% and in last place was Colonial First State at only 5.1%. Tower came in second last at 5.37%. The median return among the 27 managers was 7.5%.


The full article can be found here:

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,8347369%255E14327,00.html

Ha - Colonial in last place for 03. I have said for months on this site that their performance is s*h*i*t*e and their LAST place confirms my suspicions. I have made great profits buying what Colonial (over)sold and hope others on this site have too.

SEC

[winner69]

I think the performances mentioned only relates to the Growth Funds each manager run ........

.........and an average return of 7.5% in a good year. Wonder how much fees were?

Full details with a bit of history

http://www.intech.net.au/Assets/contentFiles/100/0312%20Growth%20Media%20Release%202.pdf

Irrespective still a good indicator of relative performance and only confirms I am right in controlling my own destiny

[Gryffyn]

Share price seems to be up and solid so those performance reports don't seem to have impacted the market.

[willy_wonker]

TWR is looking very healthy indeed. :D:)

The corporate maybe be waiting abit too long to take out TWR. Now they have to pay more with the appreciating share price.

Anyone for a round of Vodka Feijoa?

[Gryffyn]

Ok a bit of surge on now - TA lads got any analysis they want to share?

Disc - holder of lots and not trading - will buy more if other stocks reach selling points.

[Tim]

Look I am confused why so many people rate this stock as a buy on this site and brokers do not.. PLease advise.

[Gryffyn]

My reasons Tim are:
- GPG and Hanover think its a good investment.
- well below NTA
- I believe that we've had all the worst news
- new management
- solid footprint in an appreciating area
- was able to buy at absolute historical lows (low 120s for me).
- I believe the share price will give me 50-100% within 12-24 months with little risk of losing it all.

[Ed]

Tim, you ask a very important question: Chatters put TWR on their top 5 for 04 dozens of times in the contest. I do not know one broker who has TWR a "buy" or similar.

Who is missing the point?

[truedragon]

Some appreciation on solid volume which is great to see. Chinese lunar new year next week, and I expect there will be more activities from the beginning of Feb when 2004 start roaring in full scale.

DISC: Hold lots of TWR (for me)

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

My reasons Tim are:
- GPG and Hanover think its a good investment.
- well below NTA
- I believe that we've had all the worst news
- new management
- solid footprint in an appreciating area
- was able to buy at absolute historical lows (low 120s for me).
- I believe the share price will give me 50-100% within 12-24 months with little risk of losing it all.




Gryff, I think you will find TWR is trading well ABOVE its NTA. From the 03AR its book value is 185cps, but 20cps is defined as goodwill, 17cps as capitalised acquisition costs (more intangibles), and a whopping 109cps or $380M as "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA", which is a sneaky way of reclassifying 'goodwill'.

So TWR's real NTA is only 56cps.

SEC

[Gryffyn]

Ta SEC - will look into.

[instinct2004]

do you guys seriously think tower is going to do well i havent seen any proof and most of the top brokers havent even chosen it as a top proformer am i missing something

[Gryffyn]

Up 3c on strong volume today.

If there was 'proof' that it was guartaneed to do well then it wouldn't be the bargain it is now as the market would respond to that 'proof'.

Depends on your reasons for investing but higher returns sometimes entail higher risk. Over 10% gain in a couple of months on this one but I'm happy to hold longer.

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by instinct2004

do you guys seriously think tower is going to do well i havent seen any proof and most of the top brokers havent even chosen it as a top proformer am i missing something


The reason TWR is going up is because it was not picked by the brokers as top 5. If every broker was to recommend a stock as top 5 then the share price would be factored into it. What competitive advantage do you have that others dont?

GO TWR !:)

Up 3 today to $1.37 :)

disc: Happy holder of TWR

[instinct2004]

actually willy to be honest ive never traded a share thats why im here to listen to comment like the ones you just wrote and try to learn how it all works the only advantage i would have is good instincts. thanks for your posting very helpful and sorry i have actually trade a share i was given when amp floated i was luck and got out when it reached $28

[willy_wonker]

Instinct, best of luck on your share investing.

Always look to invest long term, but if there is a short term gain, then take it. Dont expect every company you purchase to go up. You win some and lose some. Is all part of the fun.

[Gryffyn]

Yeah good luck dude. I'm more for the value mid-long term picks myself and don't trade often. This site is more entertainment than insight these days but every so often some good analysis is posted. Still, pays to keep tabs on your investments and this site helps.

[instinct2004]

thanks willy when you say invest long term is that like 6mts 1yr 2yr
and thanks your right its very entertaining but if you actually strole through you can get some pretty good pic's and then its just a matter of going through and sifting out the if buts and maybe's i think if i can get it down to a T before i start trading i will make a living out of it and hopefully bring afew people along for the aride but i have alot of work to do yet so anymore tips would be much appreciated

[Risk]

have a trading plan and realistic expectations, learn money management skills and how to cut your losses (of which you will have many), dont believe the hype but think for yourself.

Having good instinct may help, but its only 1% of all the skills you'll need to be succesful.

spelling is not a skill you will need much (except when typing in company code names!)...but good record keeping is, so that you can learn from your mistakes.

[truedragon]

Hey instinct,

For me I think it take experience to be truly good at anything... or at least for us mortals. I used to get really nervous when my portfolio when it move even 1k. Now my portofolio has literally grown 10fold and movement less then 10k hardly stir a nerve on me. I make better decision when I am more relaxed and instinct can play good part.

I have receive some good advice from this site, but also some that sounded good but lead me to loses. End of the day, u control ur own destiny, and u are truly on ur own. But listen, do research and u got to actually trade to gain real life experience. I find paper practice of little use because I simply can't get motivated enough to do that.

Take TWR for example, I notice it from sharetrader forum and took a plunge mostly instinct and maybe 10% research if that. Took a big stake when I think this is the one that could be really good and am up 10% now, not huge, but not bad. Happy Trading.

DISC: Hold TWR and love it.

[instinct2004]

thanks risk & truedragon some great advice there much appreciated

[Risk]

quote:I have receive some good advice from this site, but also some that sounded good but lead me to loses.

instinct2004, I agree with truedragon on the above. a lot of the advice depends on your personality, and market conditions.
eg. a lot say: "invest long term", but personally I feel this advice did more to harm my initial trading than anything else. (partly because it doesnt suit my personality, but especially since I started not long before the market crash!)

Also, there are as many ways to trade as there are traders....all valid as long as you make money.
eg: I also bought TWR, but I used NO instinct.
The chart was showing a possible shorterm uptrend...and when it actually broke through resistance, I bought in.
I added to my position when this short term uptrend gathered some momentum.
I'll be out of TWR at a profit as soon as my trailing stop is reached.
but I trade on a shorter timeframe...weeks rather than months or years. This is what suits me but may not suit you.

Find what works for you.

[instinct2004]

what do you mean by "trailing stop"

[Risk]

trailing stop (www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trailingstop.asp)

[instinct2004]

lol yea trailing stop what do you mean is that an amount that u set and when it reachs that you sell

[Alban]

Belgarion, I'm curious to your choice of TWR. Given that the world's stock markets depend on the U.S. (doesn't the U.S. still account for over 50% of the world's stock market capitalisation?) and given your own less than favourable prognosis for the U.S., why put your money in TWR? whose problems, I am led to believe, resulted from bear markets overseas.

[truedragon]

I think Fund manager should move significant investment off the US shore to cover the potential free for of US currency.

I don't know how much TWR has hold in USD... anybody knows?

[Gryffyn]

Hey Phaedrus - what's your current take on TWR trading these days?

[airedale]

Hi,Gryffyn, I am not in the same class as Phaedrus,but I will give you my call on TWR.Just by looking at the weekly moving averages. The 4 and 8 week MA's have crossed up,but they have done that once before in the last 4 months and then retraced.
The 8 and 13 week MA's have crossed up for the first time since the big drop last May.
As the politicians say,"there are signs of a recovery but it is still fragile.
The weekly MACD is going up and the weekly momentum is positive. Still looks like a long term buy.

[scamper]

I'm not in the Phaedrus class either, but I can add some Directional Movement Indicators analysis to the TA plot. I have just posted an explanation of DMIs on the BLT thread, page 6.

With TWR, the DMI+ is above the ADX which is above the DMI-: each of the three ribbons is where it should be for an uptrending stock.

However, there are early hints of a negative change since twr closed at 137c:
1. The DMI+ has turned downward
2. The ADX, which was rising nicely, has reached a plateau
3. The DMI- has turned upward.

I'm still a relatively content TWR holder, but people deeply into TA and short-term trades will be watching the charts like hawks with a view to taking profits. I think they will be making a mistake, but there may be a bit of wobbling around in no particular direction for a while.
Cheers.

[airedale]

Hi Scamper, after your post I looked at my DMI chart for BLT.
With a DMI index length of 14 I see the beginning of an uptrend with no sign of weakness.
The + line is moving up.
The - line is sinking.
The ADX line has just turned up from beneath the other two lines.Alex Elder regards that as a particularly favourable indicator.
That is the daily chart, We will see if it follows through to the weekly chart in the weeks and months ahead

[airedale]

Having written all that I realise that I should have posted it on the BLT thread

[scamper]

I'm pleased we agree. Interesting that the BLT fundamental potential is so good, and the market (visible in the chart) is just catching on. Are you going to be the one to help me with W%R???
Cheers, Scamper.

[airedale]

Tower Indicators:: on the weekly chart the Directional Movement Indicator has turned positive using a length of 14.
Scamper, I will have to go back to the text books to refresh my memory on Williams%R.

[Phaedrus]

Gryffyn,
Here is a chart of TWR for you. The values for the four different moving averages were chosen to just miss the May 2003 peak. All have now been broken. TWR (like most heavily traded stocks)has always been good to trade using trendline breaks. A nice tidy chart, clearly showing how important it is when long-term support is broken.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/TWR001.gif

[Gryffyn]

Thanx for all the TA input chaps. I'm still a term holder but enjoy the trading analysis. Nice to also see some concensus.

The volumes in this share have reached levels recently to make it a better trading option.

[Risk]

i sold my short term holding a couple of days ago (reached trailing stop, which was set tight to lock in profits)
on a long time scale, look at RSI since yr 2000. overbought?
has found it hard recently to break $1.40.
i might jump back in if it does, or perhaps on a bounceback on the new trendline drawn by phaedrus.

[truedragon]

On holiday for lunar new year until next Tue.. cool banana[8D]
Good TA analysis.... now we should see if TWR start kicking some ass.. After back in Taiwan for 6 months.... starting looking at the TAIEX which are heavily dominated by tech stock... about 1000 public listed co.. And a lot of them have been appreciating wildly and 2004 continue to be seen as a good year. TWR better roar soon or may be I will shift the fund out of N.Z for a more exciting ride :D[8]

DISC: Hold TWR

[rawdata]

I always wonder why a company like Tower which wiped hundreds of millions of dollars of shareholders'money off the face of this planet want to court further controvesy by asking shareholders to approve a substantially revised sweetened deal for its CEO.

Surely a discounted partly-paid share issue with him putting his money on the line will be more appropriate?

Where's the Shareholders' Association when they are needed?

------------------------NZPA-----------------------

Troubled trans-Tasman life insurer Tower will test shareholder support for its new-look management at next month's annual meeting by seeking approval to replace "out of the money" options with a more attractive plan for chief executive Keith Taylor.

Armed with a Grant Samuel report supporting the terms of the issue, Tower hopes to grant up to 1.5 million options to Mr Taylor with an exercise price of $NZ1.39. This is slightly above yesterday's close of $NZ1.36.

On the ASX, Tower eased 1c to $1.17.

By comparison, Mr Taylor's old set of 200,000 options, issued in 2002 when he was chief financial officer, have an exercise price of $NZ4.05.

----------------------------------------

[Parkey]

Of course Grant Samuel would support the terms of the issue, wouldn't they - they know who will be paying their fee.

For each 1cent rise in the share price above $1.39 (which is little more than the current share price) Taylor would be in the money to the tune of $15,000! I only wish that the Board would concentrate instead on improving the lot of the poor long-suffering shareholders who have funded the business but suffered massive losses because of earlier Board and Management incompetence. In whose interests are the Board supposed to be working anyway?

[Gryffyn]

Share concerns but at end of day TWR will want to attract and retain good mgmt (don't laugh). Some deadwood already gone and some remaining worth keeping. I do believe they've reduced their retirement bonuses so better to reward for on job performance not longevity.

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by scamper


I reckon that Slow Stochastic is a better and faster indicator (historically) with this share than Bollies, which are a bit delayed.


Seems to be working Scamper :) Me? Out at 1.37, back in at ???

[stormrose]

Mr JB suggests you can reduce the delay in BollieBands by using a shorter time length SMA for the mid-band. If you do this though, he suggests tightening STDEV mutliple than calculates the bands from 2 downwards.

I'm a bit ambivalent about the 1.5mil options. I think the target of $1.39 is too low for the time period. There's also plenty TWR can do to manipulate the price - ie not paying divvies and sitting on the cash. I wonder what he'd do if the shareholders vote down the options? Throw a spaz and take TWR to court for breech of contract? :-)

[tsb]

but as the chairman is going to abstain - who can we use as a proxy?
tsb

[stormrose]

The chairman will vote on your behalf according to the directions on the sheet - if you give non it's up to the chairman.
I think the chairman only abstains in respect of their holdings, but still casts the proxies.

[truedragon]

I am not against give out management options but 1.39? What is that... bull**** really. **** that ****.

[Gryffyn]

Look at it this way, if management believe in buying into the company at that price then they believe it will be going much higher...

[Paddie]

Gryffyn,
That is hardly a stretch at $1.39.
Surely as a shareholder you would rather see it exercised at a much higher amount, so that they actually have to make an effort to earn their options.


Paddie[^]

[stormrose]

Of, alternatively, dude has to put up a little bit of money himself upfront. Atm there's only an opportunity cost if the shareprice doesn't make the 1.39 target.

[Gryffyn]

Yes, a bit higher would seem fairer. The real beauty of 139 is that if they cash in and buy we can then track their dealing as ssh movements to guage confidence.

[truedragon]

The interest rate rise seem to have a negative effect on TWR and of course the entire market in general. Possibly 2 more rise to come which adds pressure to shares overall, and of course the export market which is the engine of nations live blood. Seems like TWR finding support at 1.25 and resistance at 1.40. Looking at the year chart u will find that it's still in an upward trend with good volumne right through out so.... I hope a break out basis on a good result of the world improvied economic and more profitable insurance market will kick in by May result. Fingers crossed. And now very tempted to test my luck in the TAIEX, the amount of companies available here is just tremendous... I wish I have like 3 lives man. (1) Focus on my job with is ditributing hi-tech and ic products (2) Focus on the share and investment markets and what not (3) Focus on building my own biz... and just have a good time. Oh well, we can all dream I guess.

DISC:hold TWR[^]

[Ed]

Any ideas about the 9m shares that have just crossed?

(BTW, great chart Phreadrus)

[PrinceofWhales]

GPG have bought a further 9.39 million shares.

[floyd]

gpg holding up too 19.39percent mmmm interesting, lets hope the games begin

[Ed]

Thanks PoW.

The timing suggests to me that there isn’t much going be announced at the annual meeting – Good or bad. Why would GPG risk accusations of insider trading and the howls of indignation, if there was anything really good to be announced? Equally, why would they take a bath if there was (more) dirty laundry to come out?

The question now is whether make a move after the AGM. Second guessing GPG is risky, but one possibility is that they make a lowball offer (say 1.50) and see who they can tempt – in the same way Eddison made an offer of 3.40, when Contact was around the 3.10 mark

[truedragon]

This has gotta to be the cue to mortgage the house and get it (ramping on my existing holdings), but seriously I am taking this as a sign of encouragement for a good FY and will be buying as soon as I think that chicken virus thing is under control.. :D

DISC: Hold TWR

[truedragon]

Second thought.... it take a seller and buyer to complete a deal.. with such volumne and no price appreciation[:0] We will see[8D]

[HarryFlashman]

Good to see another move by GPG. Will have wrong-footed the Watson stooges. Looks like boys against men to me.

Cheers
Harry

[Gryffyn]

Game-on? Also taking it as a good sign but without expecting a spectacular report. Bodes well for the year and may well increase holding.

[willy_wonker]

I dont think Eric W. have a deep enough pockets to take on TWR. He is just leeching off GPG hoping to get a ride. Eric should put up or shut up.

[truedragon]

I think Eric's foray in the UK appliance market will keep him busy for now.... although he seem to take an active interest on the finance sector e.g. with his hire purchase co etc. But kind of agree with the "Mans to Boys" scenarios when it comes to "GPG to Eric". And the distance has just been extended also after the GPG purchase. Come one GPG, make TWR a stand up company or just take it out with a good offers[8D]

DISC: Hold Twr

[Gryffyn]

Something I noticed late last year - Hanover group had radio ad placements. Thought at the time they might be trying to establish a brand in the public eye and up exposure but haven't seen any follow-up.

I think Hanover will exit TWR when the good news rolls in and they book a profit. Alternatively, with 10% they can stop GPG reaching 90% mark if a takeover happens.

[floyd]

say gpg did come out and make a takeover offer on tower ........ what do you reckon the starting offer maybe?


disc: hold twr

[Gryffyn]

That's a finger in the air one. I'd pick a between 160 and 240. Would love to know what an independent valuation would be.

[Paddie]

GPG are not renowned for being generous with their offers.
Would not like to pick the dollar amount, but you can be sure it will be the absolute minimum that they think they can get away with.

Paddie[:p]

[floyd]

why would gpg sell to ithaca and then buy them back........games?

[truedragon]

I think as a shareholder of TWR, I am more keen to see this company ride the economic upturn and it's share price grow because of its better performance. Below is an article on GPG topping up
Guinness Peat Group (GPG) has bumped up its stake in Tower in a move analysts say will further fuel tensions with rival shareholder Hanover Group.

GPG today confirmed it had upped its 17.1% cornerstone in the insurer to 19.39%, narrowly avoiding the 19.99% trigger for a full takeover offer.

Director Tony Gibbs said that GPG had "consolidated its position and remains a committed Tower shareholder".

GPG supported the "direction Tower is moving in and the board and will continue to do so".

It was not immediately clear how much GPG paid for its stake, but the 9.3 million shares it bought today would have fetched about $12.3 million at $1.32 each.

Gibbs said GPG had no immediate plans to further increase its stake, but "one can never say never".

ABN Amro Craigs broker Matt Willis said it was "game on" in Tower with GPG's move.

"When the market hears that (the increased shareholding of GPG), I think that will really excite things," Willis said.

The increase in GPG's stake indicated it had a "bigger game plan in mind than just getting that extra couple of percent."

But rival Tower shareholder Hanover held 9.7%, almost enough to block a takeover bid by GPG, Willis said.

"They (Hanover) have got a lot of leverage if it came to GPG making a play for the entire company," Willis said.

Another broker, who declined to be named, agreed, saying the war of words between GPG and Hanover was likely to heat up.

The two companies have long been locked in a bitter public dispute over seats on the Tower board. Hanover does not have a representative on the board, while GPG has two.

In July last year, Hanover complained to the Takeovers Panel about GPG underwriting Tower's $210.8 million capital-raising package to help alleviate $428 million in pressing debt.

At 5pm, Tower shares were unchanged at $1.32, having traded between 97 cents and $1.72 in the past year.
Get quotes for Tower Limited (NZX: twr)

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[whatsup]

This could all be part of GPG's plan to suck Hanover into making a ill planned/timed/costed stand for TWR selling out in the process with the usual GPG news release regards dissapointment at not being able to achieve its long term desire of regaining value for share holders etc etc etc ,but happy to bank its profits etc etc laughing all the way to the bank ---you never know with GPG -- dis long term holher of GPG since its rebirth.

[Gryffyn]

Nice idea and much as I'd like to see a buy-out by someone I don't think it will be Hanover. GPG got a lot of action at around $2 so will need a good price to exit with profit.

[truedragon]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2808189a13,00.html

7000 for a tablet!! Wow... that seems pretty expensive to me, I can get a P4 2.6G or Intel Centrino with everything u can ask for like 512Mb RAM and etc for under $3k in Asia, and cheaper one with Celeron or AMD cheap there is a chance of gettling them $2k and that's retail price too!! Coming from and IT background, it sounded to me TWR still has a lot of work to do and they are making package deal that is not cheap at all, the good thing though is I do think wireless, and more direct access to its database is absolutely the right direction, the bad is that the girl seems not so tech savvy, but then again, it might not necessary be bad. The thing is TWR shouldn't force the Tablet(I think it's not that mature yet) down to the financial planner's throat, but provide it's databases for its planner to access via whatever system as long as they can connect online. And if they want to help in hardware price, offer them a sleek top end for less then $3k, because man, if u paying $7k, somebody is over paying IMO.

DISC:Hold TWR

[Gryffyn]

AGM this week. Punters sent in their proxies? I must have left something unchecked on mine and got a call from computershare saying that as I was a significant holder they wanted to clear up my proxy vote. More onto it than usual.

Have voted against the options amendment but expect it will go through.

Are we likely to hear any new news this week?

[truedragon]

Gryffyn,

How mand TWR do u hold? Just interest to know what level of holding is considered as a significant share holder etc.

[Gryffyn]

(low)6 figure holding seemed to be enough to generate phone call. Not in the top 20 sadly but also hold GPG so maybe have more than I think.

[belgarion]

TD, I couldn't agree more.

The technology employed looks very, very expensive for little real gain. I.e. 'flash' over 'function'. And I disagree with Amalia Human statement " ... and not struggle to keep up with the latest technology". Tablets are one technolgy not the latest.

What's the problem with laptops and data-capable mobile phones? This 'older' technology is far safer and many independat advisers will already have it or can upgrade by pieces. Tablets are far from proven either as data-entry devices or from a simple wear and tear point of view.

I note that "The system can't send orders back electronically yet, but it can be used to access some customer systems back at Tower and for regular Internet access and e-mail. Tower is consolidating its back-end legacy systems and over time more databases will be available via the Internet to advisers." ...

I'd punt that the big gains would actually come from :

a) being able to do real-time functions "like sending orders back electronically" (Sheesh ... this is child's play!)

b) reducing back-end legacy complexity so that new products and services can be developed and delivered to market faster as well as reducing existing IT cost.

Based upon the information provided in the article and my knowledge of NZ insurance company's back end legacy systems and insurance companies in general, Id suggest that TWR non-IT management should take a good hard look at the cost-benefit analysis that went into the signing off of this project. Id be asking a whole heap of questions and would need some convincing given some of the spectacular failures Ive seen in the same space in Europe.

This DOES NOT sound like a good use of IT spend when they acknowledge problems in providing real-time functions and quite obviously the back-end legacy systems require consolidation. I am not pleased with this direction and forsee both project budget overruns in the short-term and increasing longer-term IT costs.

Okay, I don't have the inside on why this is being done at TWR but Ive seen this done and fail so many times before, both in NZ and Europe, and the success rates, in terms of business benefit vs cost, are gnerally less than 50/50. Anyone remember NZI Life? They tried the same and failed!

First rule of successful I.T. ... K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple Stupid) ... bleeding edge ain't ever simple!

[Gryffyn]

Belg - TWR aren't the ones paying for the tablets - independent advisors. Read the article - good mgmt here in partnering and risk sharing with HP, MS and Axon (main outsourcer now for TWR networks etc).

I do have some knowledge of TWR backend systems and a lot of pruning and outsourcing has been going on.

Disc: Hold TWR.

[truedragon]

yea.. i think it's pretty pathetic that TWR still can't send order real time, and it's still consolidating its legacy systems. I mean especially after all the money, time and write down TWR has already spent on the IT department. I remember reading that they write down heaps of $$ on IT stuff already... correct?

TWR managements sounds like monkeys when talking tech really, **** that, order transaction real time is not available to ur planner, why don't u guys go and get ****ed, I mean come on, u are an insurance, fund managing company where you are pretty much rely on net, technology and connectivity nowaday to successfully manage and strive moving forward, it's luck many other fund competitors are old and slow too, but that's no accusing for be useless and not updated. I think BCA has got better in using IT to help facilitate biz and move forward etc.

Not pointing fingers but TWR management really does sounds like they lack tech savvy and if they don't improve, it's a matter of time before they are ****ed left and right by the knowledged, internet/connectivity, e-biz capable corporation and if they surive their older management need to learn to use the strenght of the new generation and new connectivity forces otherwise they will just get **** by the next tech capable generation while we shareholders pay for the transition.[V]


DISC: Hold TWR

[truedragon]

Oh yea... regarding kicking the uselss board guy out, like they did with NAB guy with a 17 million dollar handshake and prevoius annual remueration of like 7 million. I think that guy lost NAB shareholder 5 billion AUD or something during his stay as CEO.. I really get furious when I heard this... I mean I am all for rewarding your emplyees and pay them what they deserved and most importantly share your profit with your money earners.... but **** the NAB cases and so manu golden hand shake cases for old ****ing useless chimp that are on their way to hell. I say stop this day light robbery of us shareholders by these old farts...
(sorry, I guess they are not necessary old but just most of them are), the board ****ers better have a code of ethic and conducting rules or otherwise we shareholders should make one) That goest to the management team in TWR too. I think I would like to see the people get paid like there is no tomorrow provide you are making good money. Otherwise, hell no, have some self respect.

[belgarion]

TD,

Once again I agree. TWR IT management has gone down the wrong road in an industry that is heavily reliant on IT systems that add value. 'Tablets' in themselves add little to no value. They may even reduce value by because a) they are yet another software device that needs to be supported and maintains and b) they are far from 'proven' when compared to Laptops and data capable mobile phones.

This is yet another example of dumb NZ IT managers looking at 'fashion' over 'function'. They should be starting at the 'back end legacy' systems by building flexibility adding needed function and pushing existing intranet function onto extranets and the internet.

Gryf ... You view on 'quality partners' is quite amusing. These 'partners' are in it for themselves and have very, very dubious track records in adding value but good track records in walking away with profits while blaming the 'hosting' companies for not 'understanding' what they are doing.

I NO LONGER rate TWR based upon this IT strategy and I see a road to mediocrity and waste. The three things good insurance companies need are ...

1) good products that meet the ever changing market (rapid product design needs flexible and well engineered backend systems)

2) good distribution networks based on sound process design (them doing the selling get stuck in front of the client apologising for holes in the process ... NZ companies are crap at process design ... very, very crap ... we get away with it due to the small number of transactions we process due to our small population)

3) excellent product servicing to both the distribution network and the ultimate consumer (this is about points 1 and 2 but warrants its own section as the quality of 1 and 2 has a direct bearing on the numbers of (and moral of) of the staff that need to support point 3. The vast majority of insurance company staff are performing point 3. crap 1 and 2 result in increased staffing level for this point, or, the same staffing levels and crap service, and both have a direct bearing on the bottom line.)

The announced IT strategy does not seem to address any of these points as it all about the distribution 'media' and not servicing the business process.

I strongly suspect that the new 'theorists' on the board are behind these moves. It does not bode well for the future. Those of us who have been in a) IT and b) insurance IT and c) insurance, have seen these 'media lead', rather than 'process/business/service lead', initiatives fail again and again. Such projects are are less than 30% sucessful. I know, Ive been the auditing consultant both in NZ and in Europe for such projects.

Back to basics TWR !!!! Leading edge is bleeding edge and you can't afford it !!!! This strategy is so stupid I will be selling half my holding at the next peak as this has just wiped $10-20 mill plus off the next few results.

[truedragon]

hey belgarion,

I think IT smart, TWR is as dump as a post. But I don't know if it's wise move to sell as the value for holding TWR is probably more lied in the GPG holding making a TO and the fact that the overall market has improved, that TWR will improve with the macro regardless of how **** their process/system integration is. I mean they will not get as much out of it, but the overall result should still slowly turn. I mean things like installing tech savvy/processes focus into old co. takes time.

DISC: hold TWR

[belgarion]

TD ... Ive consulted to a quite a few insurance companies both in this part of the world and in Europe who got 'lost' in dumb IT strategies. HIH and AMP to name just the local ones. I told them the strategies they were off on were dumb. Did they listen? Nope. Need I say more?

[TheBossMan]

Has TWR still have some assets to sell? That can improve the balance sheet.

In light of the AGM, the share has picked up momentum. tomorrow is another day though...

[stormrose]

GPG gets around Tower proviso
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3548501

[Gryffyn]

TWR are creating another spin-off company as we speak.

Belg - insurance and IT have a bad track record. You are overreacting to one small facet of TWRs. If that alone is enough to make you dump half your holding then I think you've lost the plot on this one. Don't confuse your own IT background and experiences for TWRs overall strategy. Their systems were a mess just over a year ago and they have done an awful lot to reduce, simplify, outsource and update. I can't really take your post seriously - it's hysterical in relation to the tablet news.

[Gryffyn]

The GPG swifty is another recommendation that TWR shares are undervalued. Tablet frenzy or not.

It will be interesting to see what transpires at the AGM today. I've voted against the share allocation and there might be a few who have as well. GPG won't vote on that one so Shepherd and co might win this one.

[Ed]

"I told them the strategies they were off on were dumb. Did they listen? Nope. Need I say more?"

They didn't listen to the CIO? Wow! That is news.

[belgarion]

Cantab ....

[:I] Playing the stochs ... TWR Graphs from Yahoo (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TWR.NZ&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=b,m10,m50,e5&a=vm,ss&c=) .. back in at 1.32 and 1.33 ...

I got a TA book for Christmas and I using it ... [:I] ... When I said I would bail, I should have said I will bail when the time was right. [:I]

[belgarion]

I've just started ... no doubt I'll get caught out somewhere (like the inevitable sink prior to a spectactular annoucement that leaves me holding swat :)).

Still, TWR seems relatively safe for this sort of play as Pheadrus has already domonstrated a longer term up trend. My own analysis of a fundemental variety suggests that TWR is somewhat under valued and things should just get better.

Gryf, Im still not happy about the IT thang. I've re-read my posts and you are right, they are a little hysterical [:I].

However, I maintain my view that this will still be money down the drain and the strategy is wrong for TWR. I will bet huge sums that in five years time there won't be a tablet anywhere in sight at TWR except as paper-weights and novelty items.

The right strategy, IMNSHO [:I], would be developing and then exposing ALL the functionality required by everyone (i.e. ALL business units and external partners) via the web and using intranets, extranets and the internet to provide services. This may not be anywhere as 'sexy' as using tablets, but it does make deploying services very fast and with far less risk. I.e. 'function' before 'fashion'.

What is a tablet anyway? ;) It's basically a laptop and a data-capable mobile phone (with some smarts so people can scribble instead of use a keyboard and some often played down but very significant training and software development costs). Many intermediaries will already have a laptop and a data-capable mobile phone or both. Why add cost to the whole thing by having to support yet another deployment platform? (Or maybe that's all they are going to. I.e. use the tablets as an 'all in one' browser? ... Why bother then? Just another publicity seeking annoucement?)

First rule of successful I.T. ... K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple, Stupid) ... I remain exceeding unimpressed!

[skinny]

Well I'm out to increase my shopping spree offshore.
Bon courage to all holding on :)

[truedragon]

30 MA has crossed 90 MA, a golden cross over that indicative a buy supported by volume and a triple postivie candle sticks to back it up[8D]

Over got over quarter of a mil on this, so ain't jumping in just yet, but if the May annoucement confirm the corner is turned then I will take more is PE still good. Don't want to see another SLLGA though.

Disc:Holt TWR and think it's going to explode[8D]

[Gryffyn]

Good on ya Belg. A lot of these companies have a long way to go in IT. But that in many ways is what makes them a good buy. There's scope for efficiency gains.

I rang NZI with a policy enquiry the other day and although I had my full name and details and addresses of several policies it took over 5 minutes for the guy to locate my files on their system without a policy no!

[belgarion]

My TA book has been a wonderful present [:I] ... Gotta love them stoches [8D]

[truedragon]

If TWR can break the 1.40 resistance on good volume I think we will see some action soon.

[belgarion]

TD ... Stoches said Friday last was good time to bail ... I did. [:I]

Belgarion, with rapidly descending principles ...

[truedragon]

hmmm... belgarion, did u sold all ur holding?

[ktw13]

whats a TA book?

[Oracle]

ktw13

Your first post!! I think you should do some more reading, and determine the answer yourself!

[belgarion]

TD, heard the expression 'doing things by halves'? Im doing things by a smaller fraction than a half. Buffet does too ... seems to be working too.

[ktw13]

Trend Analysis

Thanks Oracle

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by ktw13

Trend Analysis

Thanks Oracle


Well, not technically correct [}:)]

[Oracle]

ktw13

Technical Analysis ( as opposed to Fundamental Analysis).

Its probably on page 3. Keep going!

[truedragon]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,8783830%255E643,00.html

Well Axa is doing well, ripping rewards from Asia market share gain and has time it about right to enter the high potential high challenge china insurance market.

Twr should look up to Axa and try to learn a thing or two.

Disc: Hold TWR and wish I had AXA

[Gryffyn]

Healthy jump to 143!! The Halo effect??

So Belg - did your TA book predict this one and you bought at 136 or are you out again?

[Liberty]

BIG BIG BIG Buy signal today. Finally appears to have broken through the ascending triangle it had been forming for weeks, with resistance at 140.

[belgarion]

Gryf, Trading account didn't get back in ... [xx(] ... Long term account continues to smile :) ... So far though, even accounting for tax, the TWR in the trading account is showing the same net gain in dollar terms even though Im playing with a fraction of the value held in the long term account ... And Im having much more fun. There appears to be something to this TA malarky ... still early days ... Im sure I'll stuff up.

Anyone TA guru out there tell me whether the current rush was predictable? If so what should I have been watching? T.I.A.

[Liberty]

Belg, I don't claim to be a guru, but - TWR has been forming an ascending triangle, as stated, with resistance at 140, and such formations are generally bullish.

A look at the chart of MHI over the past six months shows similar example.

[willy_wonker]

Liberty, where do you obtain the MHI and graphs from?

[Liberty]

Willy, try this BigCharts link:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NZ%3ATEL&time=&freq=

Type NZ:MHI into the symbol box, and click Java chart. A java chart allows you to draw trendlines and the like on the chart.

[belgarion]

TD ... re the Axa result ... I think I read somewhere that Axa actually experienced a net funds outflow over the period.

[Viking]

quote:Originally posted by truedragon

If TWR can break the 1.40 resistance on good volume I think we will see some action soon.


Good Call TrueDragon! :D
I can start my wishful think about this one now... :)

Hold: TWR since AUG03

[Gryffyn]

Belg - if I had a bit more time I'd do some TA trading on top of value investing as well.

This share is a nice success story for me so far but a long way off the selling point. I think people like the fact that oz is now turning a profit. All up from here.

[truedragon]

Woke up at 1pm today and was very pleansantly surprise to see the jump in the absence of any positive news... I guess the jump will attribute to (1) all the other insurance company that have annouced their Dec result are generally good (2) The global economic up trend is still in place (3) Perhaps Oz is turning around for TWR.

The jump is on reasonable volumne and consistent with the trend established from the last of couple of days. Yea, boys and girls, I think TWR rebirth has started and the rain has started to fall on the dry destructive land for growth.

TWR: Hold TWR

[Nightmare]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

TD ... Stoches said Friday last was good time to bail ... I did. [:I]

Belgarion, with rapidly descending principles ...


Next posting from Belgarion :

Stoches said today to buy and I did ...at $1.37.

Entirely predictable from Mr Hindsight. ;)

[Paddie]

Stoches or no stoches, I am happy with Tower's rise of late.

Paddie[:p]

[belgarion]

Actually Dorkmare ... you should check my earlier post.

[airedale]

The next significant resistance point is the 200 day MA, which is at
$1.49 on the New Zealand chart for Tower. If that is breached it is a strong bull signal. On the other hand if it fails to clear that hurdle, don't commit any more funds until it does

[truedragon]

can't wait for the market to open tomorrow... better be some actions:D[8D]

[Viking]

Congrats, TreuDragon~

You just turn Senoir :D

Yes, can't wait for the market to open. I went in this one when heard about GPG involvement. It was a little gamble I took, and it seems to be good punt.

[truedragon]

Thanks Viking.... I was just posting like there is no tomorrow to get that status....lol

Well, much to our that anticipation, it has pulled back to consolidate. The good thing is that it's still above the 140 mark. I must tell u man, I was singing in joy last night thinking TWR could go to 2 today, but well, it was good while the dream last...lol

DISC: Hold TWR and fingers crossed

[willy_wonker]

Truedragon, did you have a wet dream again?

Joking mate, good call on TWR.:)

Takeover rumours?

[Toulouse - Luzern]

oulo

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Woops

Belgie

What TA book are you reading?

[truedragon]

mate.... I think it's sad that TWR is giving me wet dream...lol

The share market is just too much fun, but really I should spent more time on dating, even though I do believe in the old prophet that "if it's got wheels or tits, it's going to cost you money".

I like to think TWR is going to provide me good $$ for parting out. Let's see, however, I think we will be lucky if we see a good annoucement on May, and if GPG do not take over TWR before a good annoucement, it probably not going to be such a good annoucement, and we have to wait longer.[8)]

[Gryffyn]

Nice piece in the Sunday Star about Promina warchest and TWR best target out there for many.

Don't think GPG will let go easy though but either way it is good.

[truedragon]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2829926a13,00.html

For those want a read about the potential Promina Prowls,
$1.78 is the suggestive number, and in my 2 cent opinion if Insurance sector is ready to consolidate, TWR is likely to get a few bidders, and I say the price won't go less then $2 just on simply looked at the number. I mean it has at $2, it has a market cap of around $800 mil and given the record profit everbody else are making I like to suggest TWR has the ability to make $80 mil a year moving forward. I reasonably take over PE in the heated market of 15 wil put it at a price tag of 1.2 billion NZD or $3 per share, which I will like to see very much very quickly:D

Hold TWR, and thinking about getting more sub 1.50

[Gryffyn]

Agree TD. $1.78 will be too low - at that kind of price GPG will stay in and run the turn-around themselves. Over $2.00 and they may book some profit.

disc hold TWR.

[rawdata]

Promina buying Tower? Not if Suncorp can help it. Suncorp is the more logical buyer as it has a more pronounced bansurance model which will absorb Tower more easily. And Suncorp is a 1 tonne gorilla - A$7.3 billion vs Promina - A$3.6 billion.

So who will move first?

[belgarion]

TD, I think 80 mill FY2004 might be pushing it just a little. The investment climate isn't anywhere like the bull years of a couple of years ago and considerable 'uncertainty' exists about the current climate. The Stuff article looks a little 'mischievious' to me, i.e. talking the price up.

RD, Takeover talk may still be a bit premature especially given that two companies have significant stakes and are capable of blocking any move. GPG seemed to have refined their modus operandi recently and are more prepared to hold good divie payers. TWR could be something they hold for quite some time. TWR could be even more valuable to GPG if they can be relied upon to back/support GPG inititives. If they sell, I suspect that the price will leave very, very big smiles on holders faces.

Just wait and see I guess. :)

[etrader]

Hey talking up the price with a takeover in the sunday star times, bring it on if kiwi's are that stupid to rush in and buy as a result of that article, I say bring it on, as a holder of twr shares I will be happy if that rumour starts again, the question is when do the sensible exit it what i am looking at.

Yes it is a takeover target, and sure Hanover, GPG and others would not turn down a good exit price and say thanks for coming.

They have turned a large corner but not quite there, it is still cheap buying based on where the price was sitting a while back.

[rawdata]

Etrader - look at the volume done today and you will know that it's not NZers buying because of the Sunday Star article but institutions having to jump in to grab stock before they are left behind by the performance of Tower.

[Gryffyn]

RD - or maybe Hanover increasing its stake to a blocking 10%?

[truedragon]

I have increased my stack today @1.48[:o)]
Hopefully it's a good move.

[belgarion]

It's getting to be a frenzy !!! :D:D

[floyd]

theres a few happy twr holders around.... and i be one of them.

[Gryffyn]

TD you must be smiling. I did all my buying a time ago as is well documented - not trading this share in case i miss a rush like this.

Question is, whose buying and selling these volumes? Has our CEO still got his swag bought at 1.39?

[stormrose]

Options at 1.39 - worth $15k every cent above that. But they don't vest until later so he needs to keep this a long-term thing.

[tim23]

There was big volume in Australia last week b4 the Sunday Times article! Suncorp could sell LJ Hooker and free up some $

[truedragon]

Happy holder of twr indeed Gryffyn :D
I don't know if people are getting too overly excited as the take over may not eventuate for another 6 months to forever... who knows. But I think TWR under 1.50 is a great buy just based on value, and if you belive the T/O possibility is looming closer like some of the articles in the media has suggested then I think under $1.80, u going to be in the money.

DISC: Hold TWR and man I feel great about it especially these couple of days:D

[Gryffyn]

Thanx Stormy - couldn't remember the vest date.

[Gryffyn]

See GPG announcement today (in GPG thread) - no mention of TWR takeover although they wouldn't would they. One might read that their attentions and cash are focused elsewhere. Of course they are the masters of surprise.

Would like to know whether anyone knows the average cost og GPGs entire TWR holdings. I know they got in originally around $2.00 and then more during the rights issue and some thereafter. Average price would be interesting.

Disc: TWR TWR TWR and more TWR plus GPG!

[truedragon]

some slow down today @1.52 still very respective, and the high volume on decline is not necessary good, but should be read as a bullish sign as the price were maintain about the 1.50 line. 1.50 could be the new resistance for Twr for the future time to come (just talking it up now, no real basis)

Disc: hold TWR

[Gryffyn]

Phaedrus - is it time for one of your charts and analysis?

[cazzer]

TWR is a great trading share. Rumours abound and prices go up. I will again wait for this baby to drop back and then grab some more.

[airedale]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Phaedrus - is it time for one of your charts and analysis?

Phaedrus gave us a chart about three or four weeks ago which showed TWR had moved to an uptrend. I got the same conclusion whe the 8 and 13 week MA's crossed going up. Since then the price has moved up quite a bit.I think that the uptrend is still intact.Buy on the dips.

[truedragon]

Anybody thinks this move Promina is making is TWR related?


PMN
23/03/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1019 HRS Promina Group Limited

GENERAL: PMN: Promina Group Limited Announces A$250 million

Promina has provided the following information in relation to the Reset
Preference Share Offer:

Promina Group Limited (Promina; ASX/NZX: PMN) announced today an offer of up
to A$250 million of Promina Reset Preference Shares (RPS), with the ability
to accept oversubscriptions of up to A$50 million. The RPS will be offered to
Australian institutional and retail investors and will qualify as Tier 1
capital for the Group. The announcement coincides with the lodgement today of
the Promina RPS prospectus with the Australian Securities and Investments
Commission. "The RPS offer is part of our long term capital management
program and is the first step towards making our capital structure more
efficient by introducing some gearing into our balance sheet. At the same
time, this step supports organic growth," Promina Chief Financial Officer,
Harold Bentley, said. "After developing our three year capital management
plan, and following careful consideration of current market conditions and
factors, we decided to launch an RPS offer. Overall, Promina's long term goal
is to reach a gearing level of 25 per cent over the next few years." Mr
Bentley added. Key features of the Promina RPS offer are as follows:

- a non cumulative floating rate dividend, payable semi annually in arrears
(the payment of dividends is at the directors' discretion and is subject to a
number of other conditions),
- dividends are expected to be fully franked;
- dividends are payable in preference to dividends on Promina's ordinary
shares;
- a face value for each RPS of A$100;
- subject to Australian Prudential Regulation Authority approval, Promina may
change certain terms on reset dates, the first of which is expected to be 30
April 2009;
- investors may request exchange of Promina RPS on reset dates or in certain
other circumstances;
- Promina also has rights of exchange in certain circumstances;
- ASX quotation, subject to successful application; and
- a minimum retail application of A$5,000.
The dividend will be the sum of the 180 day bank bill rate and the initial
margin (adjusted for franking credits). The initial margin will be determined
following an institutional roadshow (23 to 25 March 2004) and bookbuild
(expected to take place on 29 to 30 March 2004). Promina expects to announce
the results of the bookbuild on 31 March 2004. Promina also reserves the
right to vary the details of the offer, including timing and amounts to be
raised. Investors wishing to acquire Promina RPS will need to read the
prospectus and complete and return the application form in or accompanying
the prospectus during the offer period. The offer period is scheduled to open
at 10.00am on 31 March 2004 and close at 5.00pm on 23 April 2004. Promina's
Australian resident ordinary shareholders (registered as at 7.00pm on 22
March 2004) will receive a preference in allocation over applicants who are
members of the general public if there is excess demand for Promina RPS. All
Promina Australian resident shareholders will receive a letter advising them
of the proposed offer. Full details of the Promina RPS offer are contained in
the prospectus which is available from the Promina website at
www.promina.com.au or by calling the Promina InfoLine on 1800 554 554.

Important notice
The offer of RPS in Promina Group Limited will be made in a prospectus lodged
with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Anyone wishing to
apply for RPS will need to complete the application form that will be in, or
will accompany, the prospectus (in paper copy or electronic form). This
notice does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United
States. The RPS have not been and will not be registered under the U.S.
Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "U.S. Securities Act"), and may not
be offered or sold in the United States or to

[truedragon]

Also the 2.7% surge in NZX and 3.3% surge in ASX today on the absence of any news directly from TWR I think kind of answered my above question. Go TWR, go Promina, I will sell u my TWR at the right price[8D]

DISC: Hold TWR:D

[Gryffyn]

I'll ditto that TD. Not big volume on the rise yesterday though.

Much as I'd like a buy out, the buyer has to get past GPG and Hanover who I am sure won't sell cheap so maybe wishful thinking.

Disc - lots of TWR :-)

[biker]

What is 'organic' growth?

[truedragon]

organic growth generally means non-acquisition related...so[?]

[biker]

So, the announcement says it's non-aquisition related.


quote:Originally posted by truedragon

Anybody thinks this move Promina is making is TWR related?


PMN
23/03/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1019 HRS Promina Group Limited

"The RPS offer is part of our long term capital management
program and is the first step towards making our capital structure more
efficient by introducing some gearing into our balance sheet. At the same
time, this step supports organic growth," Promina Chief Financial Officer,
Harold Bentley, said.

[biker]

This latest announcement seems to be a positive/negative balance but nice to know the improvements have continued through the first quarter.


TWR
24/03/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1503 HRS Tower Limited

GENERAL: TWR: Change of Credit Rating by Standard & Poor's

Tower Limited has provided the following two press releases from Standard &
Poor's in accordance with Listing Rules:

Tower Insurance Ltd. Ratings Withdrawn

Melbourne, March 24, 2004--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said the
'BBB+' insurer financial strength and counterparty credit ratings on Tower
Insurance Ltd. were withdrawn at the company's request.

Tower Operating Subsidiaries' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative

Melbourne, March 22, 2004--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it
affirmed the ratings on Tower Ltd. (Tower; BB+/Negative/B) and its key
operating and holding subsidiaries, including the 'BBB+' financial strength
and counterparty credit ratings on Tower Australia Ltd (Tower Australia). The
outlook is negative.

The ratings on Tower's subsidiaries reflect its marginal, although improving,
operating performance and moderate business profile in the Australian life
insurance operation, Tower Australia. These are partially offset by the
group's adequate capitalization and strong market position in the New Zealand
nonlife, life, and health insurance markets. Tower Australia is the group's
largest entity contributing to nearly half of the group's carrying value.
Tower Australia has successfully executed a large part of its rebuilding
phase with significant reduction in expenses, but it may take some time
before this entity achieves a satisfactory rate of return. The New Zealand
operations continue to perform well.

"Tower's recent focus on providing risk products and establishing a platform
for non-bank aligned intermediaries and independent financial advisors has
led to the insurer having some success in business growth," said Standard &
Poor's credit analyst, Carolyn Rajaratnam, Financial Services Ratings.
"Difficult prevailing market conditions, coupled with a somewhat tarnished
brand, however, are challenging Tower Australia's ability to write the
required new business and retain the in-force business, and to achieve the
required rate of return, in Australia," Ms. Rajaratnam added.

Despite the financial turnaround achieved by Tower in the second half of
2003, which has continued into the first quarter of the current fiscal year,
the negative outlook stems from Standard & Poor's concerns about the delivery
of Tower Australia's business model. "The rating outlook could be revised to
stable, if Tower Australia demonstrates success in its business model, by
reducing its lapse rates and writing target level of new business, such that
target returns are achievable."

About Standard & Poor's
Standard & Poor's is the world's foremost provider of independent credit
ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research, data, and valuations.
With 5,000 employees located in 20 countries, Standard & Poor's is an
essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and provides investors
with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their
investment and financial decisions. In Australia, we have been voted INSTO
"Rating Agency of the Year" for the fourth year running. For more
information, visit www.standardandpoors.com.au.
End CA:00098459 For:TWR Type:GENERAL Time:2004-03-24:15:03:23

[truedragon]

I read the annoucement as not so positive clearly due to TWR's Oz interest..... it will be a positive when standard and poor revised the rating to stable which may take TWR a while. We should find out soon enough this May when the latest result is made public.

[airedale]

TOWER: The price broke through the 200 day MA on the 2nd March. Since then it has retested that point a few times and now appears to have left it behind. Stocks which have sufficient momentum to break through and stay above the 200 day MA generally keep moving in that direction until the next major reversal. On the weekly chart the 8 week and 34 week MA's have crossed upwards. Also a positive sign.

Discl: Holding TWR

[truedragon]

I think it is fair to say that from all fundamental, technical and speculative perspective. TWR has got something on going for it at this moment. I have great expection for TWR[^]

DISC:Hold TWR

[Binklebonk]

A pity TWR didn't apply the same standard of care as (IFT below) when they did their rights issue awhile ago!


IFT
31/03/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1640 HRS Infratil Limited

GENERAL: IFT: Infratil Extends Warrant Exercise Date to 30 April 2004

Infratil advises that it has extended the final exercise date for its
warrants (formerly IFTWA) until 30 April 2004. Infratil is concerned that
some warrantholders who have not exercised their warrants may not fully
appreciate that by failing to do so they lose the full value of the warrants.
Infratil is sending a letter to all outstanding warrantholders advising of
this extension and of an arrangement made with ABN AMRO Craigs that should
make sale of the warrants easier.

Warrantholders are strongly encouraged to act before 30 April 2004 as
Infratil doesn't intend to extend further the exercise period.

[Phaedrus]

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/TWR002.gif

[Gryffyn]

Who needs a takeover? 160 reached and more buyers than sellers. Sure, it might take a breather but this baby has been the jewel in my crown.

Disc: TWR (and GPG).

[Halebop]

A couple of Promina people I know swore black and blue a month or so ago that Promina NZ or Vero NZ had purchased Tower's F&G business - It appeared this was all bollocks though.

Interestingly, the rumour is still circulating through Promina so maybe they have been kicking the tyres?

[truedragon]

Life is truly a beautiful thing[8D]

DISC: Hold Lots of TWR:D

[belgarion]

But its taken a while :D

[airedale]

Like the cheese ad says "good things take time".

[Tinker]

Seems to be trundling up quite nicely. 163c now. Up 20% in the last 3 months. Does anyone know when the half year report is due? Last year it was towards the end of May but much has changed since then.
Thanks

[Gryffyn]

$1.69!!! Up 8 at the moment. What gives?

Disc: Happy TWR holder.

[Risk]

lot of momentum on this one...lucky my buy order was filled yesterday at $1.59

[Paddie]

Somethings got to be up. Any guesses?

Paddie[^]

[etrader]

Just a speculation that something is around the corner but is driving upward at a good pace, how much would some large group be prepared to offer to get this one in there fold

[Gryffyn]

Volumes are certainly high but there are two shareholders with blocking stakes so a takeover will be hard. Still, bring it on i say - that would at least help me to decide when to take my profits from TWR.

[belgarion]

What a beautiful day ... :D:D:D:D

Found this thread ... How many Tower do you own? (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19174)

Who's still holding???? ... And who bailed and is now regretting it?

[Gryffyn]

Well, you only have to trawl back in this thread to see all those who didn't get in at 120s, then 130s etc as they kept waiting for the drop that never came.

It was, and still is a punt, but it's making up for some "good" decisions that went bad.

Still holding but wondering where to put money if i sell.

[Ed]

Very happy about recent moves with twr (Disc. Hold too many for my own good). Today's market "addding machine" says the shares are worth 1.70. A month ago that adding machine said they were worth somewhere in the 1.30's.

Who wants to try "weighing" the value of the shares?

The directors say that the NTA is $1.90;

Forbar says that something called the 'component valuation' is 1.57;

FatProphets said in January that TWR was a "buy", and mentioned the 1.90 NTA.

I have read somewhere that a broker values TWR at 3.00 (Can anyone confirm or refute this? I forget where I read it)

Any thoughts?

[Gryffyn]

I heard take-over targets at around 180-230. Really hard to value as they haven't had a go-forward without write-offs for a while now. Next 12 months with possible return to divvy payments will fairly value this baby.

[belgarion]

TD suggested $1.70 and this is about my 'non-takeover' value too. Its tempting to lock in some profits now but Im using TA to time any sell. The interim result might just be better than we were predicting at the end of last year ...

[Bobcat.]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

TD suggested $1.70 and this is about my 'non-takeover' value too. Its tempting to lock in some profits now but Im using TA to time any sell.


If you are using TA, you'll see resistance at 170-175 (150 Australian) which has been confirmed today. A nice price climb over the past couple of months but the interim result is still six weeks away, and there's enough uncertainty for the bulls out there to falter in the lead up.

Disclosure : selling tomorrow.

[belgarion]

Bobcat. TA skills are still average at best. What are you using to conclude that there is resistance at 1.70-.175? TIA (Thanks in Advance)

[airedale]

Good morning Belgarion, bring up your weekly charts and if your data history goes back for a few years you will see that after the big drop at the end of 2002 there was support in Dec. 02 around 1.60-1.70. Then in June/July 03 there was a similar support zone which eventually collapsed. So now we are back at about NZ1.70 and the next resistance point is at about $2.00 which is where the price hung for the first five months of 2003 trading between NZ1.90 and NZ2.30.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by Ed

Very happy about recent moves with twr (Disc. Hold too many for my own good). Today's market "addding machine" says the shares are worth 1.70. A month ago that adding machine said they were worth somewhere in the 1.30's.

Who wants to try "weighing" the value of the shares?

The directors say that the NTA is $1.90;

Forbar says that something called the 'component valuation' is 1.57;

FatProphets said in January that TWR was a "buy", and mentioned the 1.90 NTA.

I have read somewhere that a broker values TWR at 3.00 (Can anyone confirm or refute this? I forget where I read it)

Any thoughts?


Ed, the NTA of Tower is 56, not 190. Refer to my earlier post on this thread. But don't try and value TWR based on its NTA, NA or anything to do with fundamentals.

SEC

[Ed]

For the benefit of others, a copy of the post SEC refers to:

"Gryff, I think you will find TWR is trading well ABOVE its NTA. From the 03AR its book value is 185cps, but 20cps is defined as goodwill, 17cps as capitalised acquisition costs (more intangibles), and a whopping 109cps or $380M as "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA", which is a sneaky way of reclassifying 'goodwill'.
So TWR's real NTA is only 56cps.
SEC"

Questions: How is "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA" arrived at?

Is it fair to say that there is zero value in this measure?

SEC, if NTA etc is unreliable, what methodology would you apply to value TWR (or any insurance company)?

[The BOWMAN]

The price fall from $1.76 midday yesterday is bound to be related to GPG's takeover action over Coats. The steam behind the momentum is gone and don't believe the upcoming financial results in May are going to be anything good. Dumped all my TWR holding and waiting for the tide to go lower and ride the wave again. :D

[airedale]

TWR: Does anyone know what GPG's average buy-in price for Tower is.?

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by Ed



Questions: How is "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA" arrived at?

Using their ouija board and consulting their team of clairvoyants.

Is it fair to say that there is zero value in this measure?

Correct.

SEC, if NTA etc is unreliable, what methodology would you apply to value TWR (or any insurance company)?


Ed, I used to pour over financial statements in an attempt to get this answer. But why should I do this when there are plenty of well paid analysts who do the same thing and come up with their own earnings estimates, available for free on the internet:

http://au.us.biz.yahoo.com/z/a/t/twr.nz.html

The most important table on this page is the concensus estimates and how it is trending. For TWR, it hasn't changed much over 3 months but the price certainly has, indicating the recent buying has been based on sentiment and not fundamentals.

SEC

[truedragon]

So there is no takeover by GPG for now aye...
I think the analyst site at yahoo is pretty useless dude, and they won't publish their best finding there.. I mean, come on 60% of them commentted sale and TWR has appreciate so much in the last 3 months.

I was hoping I will see 2 before the May annoucement... now we will just see.

DISC: Hold TWR

[SEC]

Truedragon, I ignore the brokers' recommendations and look only at the estimate trends. That section is very useful and has guided me to some very profitable trades on the ASX.

Yes TWR has appreciated heaps over 3 months but based on sentiment alone. And sentiment can change within seconds after a company announcement.

SEC

[The BOWMAN]

I agree with you, SEC. And I anticipate if the GPG takeover action over Coals doesn't change the direction, the result in May will.

[stormrose]

The NZ fund returns have been really good this last 12 months.
A significant amount of Tower's business is in managing other people's money.
Tower's past problem's were, in part, because customers bailed from Tower's fund products after negative returns.
Maybe the reverse holds true; With good returns in managed funds the punter will start asking Tower to manage their money for them again.

Tower has its own market-linked investments. These too may have appreciated with stronger markets.

I think we're all expecting good news come FY result time. Mind you, that 109c "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA" has me a little concerned.

[truedragon]

Hey the bowman,

Are u suggesting that the TWR price will crash after the FY annoucement in MAY? On what basis? Screw the NTA, the point is EPS. If TWR can generate 8 cent for the half year ended March per share, it's absolutely not over valued IMO.

DISC: Hold TWR

[Gryffyn]

I'm hoping that under continuous disclosure rules, no news is good news at the moment. Haven't seen any directors dumping shares at the new high levels either.

Disc: TWR

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by airedale

Good morning Belgarion, bring up your weekly charts and if your data history goes back for a few years you will see that after the big drop at the end of 2002 there was support in Dec. 02 around 1.60-1.70. Then in June/July 03 there was a similar support zone which eventually collapsed. So now we are back at about NZ1.70 and the next resistance point is at about $2.00 which is where the price hung for the first five months of 2003 trading between NZ1.90 and NZ2.30.


Thanks for that. I see what you mean. However this is one case where I going to go with fundementals over TA. The points in time quoted are just too far 'in the past' given the changes that TWR has been through.

Re valuation questions with regards ... "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA" ... the way I look at this number is that it reflects the value given to TWR's 'book of business'. The book currently stands at about $20 billion. The number simply is an attempt to reflect the fact that one buying TWR would get the book at that value. A better way to estblish the value (IMHO) is to work out how much it would cost an existing i-company to add $20 billion to their book. I.e. is it cheaper to buy TWR or cheaper to build your own. (Note that a player trying to get into the NZ mrkt, as opposed to one already here, would expect to pay more than an existing player. Existing players wouldn't want this and t.o. would be aggressive.) Also, the value of the book would also change depending upon how profitable the book is. As we can see, the market is re-weighting TWR on the basis the book is now worth more than a few years ago.

Those wining about the validity of the "Excess of directors' valuation over NTA" should check out how the local insurance brokerage market works. i-brokers sell their portfolios in much the same way. I leave it STs to work out whether the $1.09 NTA per share reflects the true value of TWR $20 billion book. ;)

Me? I think, in the current market, it's too low and TWR is a bargain if you're another i-company. Wait for next result and I think we'll see some action once the market has some 'official' numbers to work with. I still like Tower'ING [}:)]

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by truedragon

Hey the bowman,

Are u suggesting that the TWR price will crash after the FY annoucement in MAY? On what basis? Screw the NTA, the point is EPS. If TWR can generate 8 cent for the half year ended March per share, it's absolutely not over valued IMO.

DISC: Hold TWR


It certainly gives the impression that TWR is still one of those worst operated insurance companies in the last a year or so. I believe the disappointment in the FY report is inevitable.

[tim23]

Ask Trans Tasman shareholders if the NTA has much relevance?

[Ed]

From the Herald today:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/businessstorydisplay.cfm?storyID=3561679&thesection=business&thesubsection=insurance&thesecondsubsection=general

[Gryffyn]

Also

TWR
21/04/2004
GENERAL

REL: 0857 HRS Tower Limited

GENERAL: TWR: ISSUE OF OPTIONS TO SENIOR EXECUTIVES

TOWER Limited - Issue of Options to Senior Executives

The TOWER Limited Board has resolved to offer up to 12.1 million options to
approximately 40 TOWER senior executives.

The exercise price of each option will be NZ$1.53 (calculated as the average
weighted TOWER share price on the NZX in New Zealand dollars for the five
trading days 30 March to 5 April 2004).

The options will vest on 1 April 2007 and may be exercised up until the
expiry of the exercise period on 31 March 2010.

The options may only be exercised if the hurdle of a 10% per annum
compounding increase in the TOWER share price less any distributions paid is
achieved.

Full details will be provided when the options are issued.
End CA:00099292 For:TWR Type:GENERAL Time:2004-04-21:08:57:25

[Gryffyn]

At least that's an incentive that all shareholders benefit from!

T/O talk is always good but I think the results next month will be better.

Disc: TWR

[Paddie]

I must say that I am a bit nervous about next months result, as I am still concerned about the Aussie operation.
Reports of them turning it around aren't convincing, and I suspect a fairly mediocre result.
I hope I am wrong.

Paddie

[truedragon]

I am impressed with TWR's recent upshoot. It looks like it's going to camp itself firm aroud the 1.70 mark until more informaton is made available. Insurance is one of Warren Buffet's favorite biz for a good reason, and I think the current price should hold if not appreciated significantly when/if a TO come along, or the day TWR's management actually exerciese some management muscles the right way.

DISC:Hold TWR

[Ed]

I tend to discount the liklihood of any t/o activity until after TWR has got plenty more runs on the board. After HHG at AMP, any other insurance company is going to want a rock solid case to take to their shareholders. Besides, GPG has te final say with 20% and if they don't accept, not much is going to happen.

The result has me worried. Personally, I would be amazed (and pleased) if they came in at 20m (5cps) for the half, and a good story about further improvement. I think 8cps (32m) is way too much to hope for.

[truedragon]

Anybody know when TWR annouce it's result? Can't wait man[:o)]

[Ed]

last year the result was announced on the 28th of May.....and there was a wraning provided on the 21st.

[Gryffyn]

Bounced back over the 170 mark this morning. Perhaps a few feeling confident about news ahead. Other insurers have had good results so far.

Disc: TWR.

[truedragon]

volume is 2 million which is quite a lot. AMP is up also, I think we can expect more rise building up to a hopefully good result annoucement given the bullish overall environment experience in the past 12 months.

DISC: hold TWR

[Gryffyn]

Agree. May subside a little after result which won't be stellar enough to sustain the momentum, but it's all looking good considering buy-in prices.

[belgarion]

TD, Hold both AMP and TWR ... ;)

[David Renwick]

Anyone recall the price action of a few years back when German merchant-bankers Hunbank were sniffing around? The price softened 10% from $5.40 when Boonzaier denied there was any due-diligence going on.
Waiting for suitors may be pretty hard on the ugly-sister of the insurance family but even harder on speculators but I share Truedragons enthusiasm, esp given the latest Snr Executive options. They have all the info and there's no need to inside-trade or take advtg of priviledged info if the board lets you do it with no-risk options.

[Tinker]

Here we go. From the horses mouth so to speak.

""Our 2004 Half Year Results will be announced on 27 May 2004.

Regards,
*******
Investor Relations Assistant
Tower.com""

[truedragon]

Okay, about another 3 weeks before we know the result, I think they probably will pay a dividend around the 5 cent mark with an EPS around 10 cent (pure speculation and gut feeling based on a profit of around 40mil). I am actually thinking about buying some more, although I already have like heaps and heaps relative to me.

DISC: HOLD TWR

[grumpy]

Has anybody any idea on what precipitated todays movements in twr?

tia :(

[Paddie]

Don't know categorically, but I am sure that some investors are nervous about their result to be announced later this month.

Paddie[:p]

[Liberty]

Another fall this morning, currently trading at 156. Offshore markets have been weaker overnight and our market has followed suit this morning.

I think it is important to keep this recent decline in context - it is on quite light volume, and the price will need to fall a few more cents yet for the current trendline to be broken.

Whenever TWR has fallen over recent weeks, it has done so on light volume, whereas its strong 'up' days have been accompanied with good volumes through the market. This is typical of an uptrending stock, so until I see a trendline break, or a fall on heavy volume, I'm unconcerned about this week's trading.

[airedale]

My feeling is that in the absence of any news,TWR is sinking/falling along with the rest of the markets here and in OZ/UK/US etc. TWR is still in an uptrend, and I may take my own advice and "buy on the dips"

[prosperity]

Liberty,
To my way of thinking the trendline break is quite close esp. at 153.I wouldn't want to see it fall much further and todays volume is fairly substantial ,but are there not buyers there maybe perceiving a cheap buy, considering the recent higher levels.

[truedragon]

It just goes to show how unpredictable the stock market really is.

I mean, I see the Taiwan index shoot from 5000 to like 7000 in and now back under 6000 all in couple of months. TWR is definitely getting hammered due to the international index weakness, and on a gut feeling, it may present an opportunity to increase our holding giving N.Z don't have that much exposure to middle east conflicts and potical uncertainty etc etc. People still gotta insure their car, house etc, put their money on some kind of security fund perhaps in N.Z for the perceived safe harbour etc.

DISC: HOLD TWR.

[truedragon]

Took another bite at TWR yesterday at around the 1.56 mark.... Any of u ponders taking more in, fingers crossed.

DISC:Hold TWR

[Gryffyn]

Heavily subscribed already TD. Recent sales staying as cash at the moment but still long in GPG and TWR.

Bring on the results. Not picking anything great but I think the bad news is over.

[airedale]

Hi all, yesterday TWR price came back down and touched the 200 day MA. Today it headed north again. Looks like a good entry point to buy a few more. I don't expect any dividend announcement in the upcoming company report on the 27/05 but I think that the GPG influence will move this one up over the next year.
Discl: Accumulating TWR

[biker]

Must be a bit of short selling going on at the moment? If so, the relentless weakness in the shareprice will hopefully reverse sharply before too long.The 13% drop in 10 days must be getting close to over done.

[truedragon]

I am actually buying some more[8D]
I don't see why there are not going to be a divvy provided that the result is at least okay.

DISC:Hold TWR

[Footsie]

I looked at TWR in the 130's but it got away on me.
now its come back to 150, i'm pretty keen to throw a few dollars at it

[Gryffyn]

1.51 was good enough for me to buy more. Not counting on - actually not hoping for - a divvy but just a solid back on track result.

Now that GPG underwriting issue has been resolved we know they won't have to dump and depress market. So I'm back to thinking that they went for as much as they could get so I'm following suit.

Disc. Even more TWR.

[truedragon]

Still... close lower in both nzx and asx. Not a good sign... is it something that we don't know.. e.g. the result is actually going to be really really ****ty etc.[xx(]