The Bear is awakening [Archive]

Winston001

11-03-2005, 10:11 PM

Interesting thread. I'm inclined to Ratkins view. NZ has higher (but not outrageous) interest rates, wage pressures, and a strong dollar. As a nation, we rely on exporting because there is a lot of stuff we cannot make for ourselves.

The exchange rate is hurting. Luckily farm commodities are also strong on the world market so we have some leeway. But exporting manufacturers, timber, and maybe fishing, are all going to be hit now. And those industries employ people, who will be laid off = media coverage = doom and gloom (pictures with Judy at 6:00pm :D)

So the bad news we've seen over the past few days can very easily turn into a bear market. People who have done well will take their profits, stop-losses will be activated, and financial planners will flood the WINZ offices. Well...........we can hope. ;):)

I can see buying opportunities in this. But I also don't know that I'm clever enough to spot them, so I'll continue to pay my dues here. In the meantime I plan to move to defensive stocks. I also believe Oz is a much better economy to be in so I'm slowly building up shares there.

Just my 2cents.

pago

11-03-2005, 10:51 PM

hi,too soon to panic,take medication.sorry havent time to write an essay,there is at least 6/12 months for many variables to play out,nz shares prob.slow growth with exceptions,aust shares strong growth in mineral resoures,pick carefully,there are equal good choices in canada,etc,this is not doom and gloom,but something to watch,cheers pago.

ratkin

12-03-2005, 06:07 AM

I would rather watch from the outside.
Best scenario is very low returns ir 0-8% on the sharemarket (as a whole) this can be obtained from cash investments, so why bother with the shares?
Buy and hold forever merchants will sit on their shares and ride it out, but why bother?

Im not all gloom and doom, i just cant see the point in NZ equities right now when i can gain a risk free 8% from cash investments.
Being cashed up also has the advantage of being in a strong position if the market does tank

Major von Tempsky

12-03-2005, 07:04 AM

Long term value holders, share investor fundamentalists rejoice.
Maybe Warren B will put some money into the NZX as he can't find anything worth investing in in the US (unlike Skinny :-)
I'm holding 30% cash and defensive stocks (CEN and CNZ). But it needs to get worse before I pounce. Roll on the low share prices.
But I do think the doom scenarios are somewhat exaggerated.....
I expect Phaedrus is peeing himself and selling everything as his charts disappear down the gurgler....

OldRider

12-03-2005, 07:16 AM

There used to be an old rule of thumb that the PE of a stock should be near eps growth.

Many stocks are above this today, my view is that in any correction those where this value has the greatest disparity have the least chance of retaining their value.

Phaedrus

12-03-2005, 08:43 AM

MvT,
I know that I am wasting my time responding to your jibes and that you are incapable of seeing any merit in technical analysis, but nevertheless take the time to examine this chart of a stock that we both hold :-

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/CEN312001.gif

Observe the excellent entry point (after CEN had gone nowhere for years
Admire the subsequent steady uptrend.
See how this uptrend is being monitored by 3 separate indicators.
Look carefully and you will see that none of these indicators are anywhere near giving a Sell signal.
Note the rising On Balance Volume indicator.
I will not be selling CEN as long as this situation continues.

You should know that for me, selling is not the agonising angst-ridden experience that it is for you. When the time comes for me to sell, I do so quite dispassionately and without any incontinence whatsoever. I do not hold any stocks that are "going down the gurgler".

Major, there is no fool like an old fool. I think it more likely that you are the one with micturition difficulties!

duncan macgregor

12-03-2005, 04:29 PM

PHEADRUS and MAJOR VON TEMPSKY, We must all respect each point of view. To be successfull requires a recipe with more than one ingredient. I come from somewhere between both points of view, so feel well qualified to have a go at either side. I feel major you might learn a lot from pheadrus,and i think if pheadrus was honest about it he would admit to being more like you than you suspect. It is in the eye of the beholder,what is best and what is not. To think this is the only way shows to me that the person has a closed mind. Regardless of who has the best system will change with time, your system must change to suit the time. I expect both of you will outperform each other in different markets, but i also expect that both of you might change slightly to suit the market. Major i learned a lot from SNOOPY, but realised his fundamental strategies had no sell strategies in place,which is completely wrong, and pheadrus had stop losses, and trendlines that saved me from disaster. PHEADRUS on the otherhand relied on mr market to dictate the buy, which to me was not on. I rely on fundamental analysis to dictate where my money goes, which means i get in the market at the bottom before the ta shows, then leave it up to the market and my time line to get me out. Major a question if i may, DO YOU HAVE AN EXIT STRATEGY OR ARE YOU LIKE SNOOPY AND BLEAT ON HOW RIGHT YOU ARE EVEN WITH THE SHARE PRICE HALVED?. Then we have PHeadrus that sits on shares year in and year out, with everyone thinking he is an in and out investor that would never hold shares for years. macdunk

ratkin

13-03-2005, 01:30 PM

Some doom and gloom atarting to appear in the papers. Sunday star times talking of rising interest rates and their negative effects. Firstly for no deposit homeloans, secondly about rising repayments.

Duncan Macgregor , you not a good cricket tipster, should we pay any attention to your views on the economy?

Dazza

13-03-2005, 05:11 PM

the index overall has increased about 50% over the last 2 years.

ive been looking at some strong blue chips, CEN/AIA/SKC/SKY/WAM

and all of them have had good runs in the last 2-4 years about 100% + ....

im warrying about buying shares as of late, esp blue chips *NOG still a good buy!~!!!*

say if the economy is bad etc, all turns rotten etc,

i still think WAM/CEN will still be bullish,
reasons prob cause everyone will produce rubbish and everyone needs power...

where as , AIA/SKY/SKC, when the tough gets going... ppl mite cancel their trips, cut the spending at movies/hotel/tourism, and also cut their sky digital subs...

to be honest i tink for myself, i only entered this game in the last year, and i tink i entered it in a bad time!

port hills

13-03-2005, 06:29 PM

Dazza

I'd think SKY should stay good if the dollar remains high and SKC will be just fine no matter what shape the economy is in.
A recession doesn't matter if your customers are addicted to your product, most of them would probably rather stay gamblers than pay their power bill! [xx(]

lanenz

13-03-2005, 06:29 PM

Intersting reading you guys.
Here are my views.
You often here economist more or less say, the market may go up, if not expect it to go down.

Time wise, we should expect some sort of correction in the near future, even in a bullish market.

Ratkin: Good comments about the cricket, now that I know the result. Your comments that we are entering a bearish market over the next 2 years seems only based on market reactions over the last week and news about negative influences, ie; inflation, interest rates, NZD and so on. Very strong commodity prices at present is helping our export sector.My biggest concern would be if China's economy hits the fan. Give it later in this decade and I personally believe that is a strong possibility. If I am wrong then you will be right. All in all it is fair to say that the information over the past week has not been a suprise to the markets. We have known or expected this 2 months ago. IMHO I still believe there is a lot of steam left in the NZ market over the next 2 years.

Here are my predictions this year.
Expect some sort of correction this year with the market index at least 7% higher than at the begining of the year.

We will have at least 1 period of a losing streak lasting at least 6 days and a winning streak of at least 7 days.

Power company's to excel in the next 2 years and by dec 2005 ratkin to say I was right and he was wrong, at least in his mind. :-)

ratkin

13-03-2005, 07:26 PM

Suspect by december we will be range bound at best. The stockmarket will probably be profitable for the year, however we have already had those.
Sentiment counts at least as much as the real state of the economy, and i sense sentiment starting to turn. Many people have high dept levels and interest rate rises are going to start affecting disposable income.
Manufacturing could quickly slow, while the removal of jobs to china speeds up, so will be plenty of gloomy stories on the news.
Entering winter does not help. Beating the lions might !!

Placebo

14-03-2005, 11:37 AM

I am wondering what is the opportunity cost for Ratkin of his ongoing pessimism.

You are a wise rat to be alert to risks: However, I think your forecasts of doom are premature.

rmbbrave

14-03-2005, 12:12 PM

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Best scenario is very low returns ir 0-8% on the sharemarket (as a whole) this can be obtained from cash investments, so why bother with the shares?

Assuming your estimate of 0-8% for the market as a whole is correct then that doesn't sound like a bear to me. Isn't a bear run when the market is falling? The "market" is only an average so that means that there will be some shares in there returning 16% and some returning -8%, some 32% and some -24%.

Some would say if you can't tell which shares will be positive and which negative then you shouldn't be in the game.

croesus

14-03-2005, 02:04 PM

Call me Cassandra, but I am with Ratty... to much debt on bling bling crap.
Also a lot of people have piled into res prop investment at 5% yields on the allure of big capitol gains... it ain't goin to happen folks, if you have serious debt... get rid of it

Bling_Bling

14-03-2005, 02:50 PM

Indeed, not all that Bling Bling is gold. The mass population is currently living it good in a dream cloud 8. Just look at the the doggy finance retail outlets that has pop up around Auckland lending from $100 to $100,000. Watch out, we may one day wake up from our dreams back into reality.

bongo66

14-03-2005, 03:01 PM

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Watch out the bear has finished hibernating. NZ has only one direction to go for the next two years, and its not up.
Good news is now ignored, any bad and stocks are pummelled

Interest rates rise and rise
inflation rises and rises
wages rise and rise
the dollar rise and rises
China rises and rises
imports rise and rise

Blackcaps fall
exports fall
profits fall
house prices fall
sharemarket falls

The rat jumps ship and heads for less stormy seas

If your horizon is only 2 years you shouldnt be in the market.

If your strategy is ST trading then there are ALWAYS opportunities, even in a bear.

B is for bullish, Bongo:D

Phaedrus

14-03-2005, 03:43 PM

For more than 2 years we have been in a Bull market with the NZX50 Gross Index in a steady uptrend. There would need to be some evidence that this strong uptrend was weakening before you could say that "The Bear is awakening". The Index would have to show weakness that has not been evident over the previous 2 years. There are many objective methods of assessing the strength of uptrends - here are some indicators that have not been triggered in 2 years, but would need to be, in order to show that the uptrend was weakening :-
The Index falling below the 2 year trendline.
A drop of over 5%.
A break below an 80 day exponential moving average.
The On Balance Volume would need to stop climbing, and fall.
Breaching a 15x Average True Range trailing stop.
A 40 day Variable Moving Average crossover.
A Directional Movement Indicator reversal.
Since none of these things have happened one is forced to the conclusion that the Bull market is still intact and that the NZ50 Gross Index is not showing any signs of unusual weakness, as yet.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/NZ50314001.gif

leanmeanfightingmachine

14-03-2005, 03:46 PM

The market crashed at 4200 in 1987. 18yrs later we are at 3150. there is alot left to go yet especially if the average NZer becomes a well rounded investor like they are in other countries. ( Cullen) That is also if people take there foot off property. As this seams to be all people in this country no what to invest in.
All Blind.

With some great companies returning some of the highest divi's in the world i say the returns are still better than the bank. 10-14%. And the risk is still low.

How can a market tank when it's been so undervalued for the last 10yrs? Like the property market of the last 3yrs it is only catching up. "Tank", never happen.

LMFM

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

I would rather watch from the outside.
Best scenario is very low returns ir 0-8% on the sharemarket (as a whole) this can be obtained from cash investments, so why bother with the shares?
Buy and hold forever merchants will sit on their shares and ride it out, but why bother?

Im not all gloom and doom, i just cant see the point in NZ equities right now when i can gain a risk free 8% from cash investments.
Being cashed up also has the advantage of being in a strong position if the market does tank

TerryA

14-03-2005, 04:15 PM

Phaedrus,

Is there enough data to establish a new, and higher, trend line commencing November 2004 ?

Thanks

Phaedrus

14-03-2005, 04:50 PM

Sure. The entire long-term uptrend could be subdivided into its constituent 7 secondary uptrends and their associated retracements. No point focussing on short/medium term trends if we are looking for the end of a long-term trend, though.
If you were a short-term trader, trading this Index, you would certainly have drawn just the trendline you mention. But then, such a trader wouldn't dream of using any of the indicators plotted here. The focus here is on the long-term - 2+ years.

belgarion

14-03-2005, 05:20 PM

Ph, with the NZ50 being a gross index, do the above list of factors still hold true? I.e. So long as the companies that make up the 50 keep paying divies, the NZ50 will continue up even though there is no capital appreciation. Which makes me think, what would your interpretation of NZ40 numbers. (Im assuming one can still get NZ40 numbers?)

craic

14-03-2005, 06:03 PM

The NZ market always seems to wither at this time of the year and I remember previous discussions about this temporary weakness. Some suggestion that it is based on the need to cash up and pay taxes or maybe the credit card bill?

ratkin

17-03-2005, 02:55 PM

The slide is on, will continue to slowly drift for a while yet, until something triggers a proper fall

John Mexted

17-03-2005, 03:46 PM

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

No stock is a good stock, cash is king

If the market is heading south the stocks will be much better than cash.

Why not be on the short side of the market?

Bling_Bling

17-03-2005, 03:48 PM

Shorting is a dangerous game for the brave. Bling has a weak heart and not brave enough to play the shorting game.

ratkin

24-03-2005, 09:26 AM

Is it sinking in yet?

The gloom is starting to descend, we are now seeing articles in the papers about interest rises starting to hurt, people warning its a bad time to buy property, commentators nervous about the stockmarket, jitters on wall street and worst of all the kiwis about to be soundly thrashed in the cricket.

craic

24-03-2005, 09:49 AM

No problem - it's just tax time.

Toddy

24-03-2005, 09:57 AM

Ratkin

Its called inflation, and the 'investors' around the world love it!

It's only doom and gloom for the 'Jones' of this world.

Good luck and don't let your outlook get you down.

hilly

24-03-2005, 10:23 AM

I agree 'the tax time factor' is influencing the market....nothing to worry about here in general...in fact a chance to do well out of this small slip.

zyreon

24-03-2005, 10:39 AM

actually the NZ economy is heading towards a reccession, the business cycle goes up and then down

whiteheron

24-03-2005, 10:59 AM

zyreon

Yes , but when ? that is the question

Have you got your bell out yet to signal the downturn ?

zyreon

24-03-2005, 11:41 AM

the question isn't when will it happen, the question is when does everyone think it will happen.

if a recession is comming the market will discount it way in advance -- stock market is a "leading indicator"

though in my opinion, probably towards 06 "ceteris paribus"...

ratkin

25-03-2005, 04:59 AM

The perception is already starting, hence this thread, its a leading indicator !!!
The oz market just had its biggest one day fall for two years, the worm is turning.
Traders who may heve become sloppy during the goodtimes are going to have to work much harder for profits, while many of the newbies will be losing discipline, not exiting in time, and generally suffering.
Meanwhile the rat will be busily trading the cricket. A much easier market to trade, although the weather is making it interesting

Arthur

25-03-2005, 08:19 AM

Maybe we need a bit more passion like these guys
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4380109.stm

25-03-2005, 09:29 AM

I remain cautiously optimistic.A sell down will present good opportunities shortly-a chance to make good money.

On the LT side-quite a few coys with sound fundamentals,earnings growth,and a div yield of around 10%.

On the Trading side good opportunities will emerge.
Patience and selection is the key.

Tinker

25-03-2005, 11:54 AM

Thanks for the link Arthur. What a hoot! I'm all for a bit more passion here by investors - perhaps a public hanging or two, or national shaming days with heaps of posters, marches and burning of effigies etc. Sort of a negative bonus system for directors and senior management:D.
From posters on this site strikes me that the HO of TTP would be a good place to start the local campaign, esp when the O/S owners are there attending a meeting .. heh heh.

Just being flippant
cheers
Tinker

Disc. Don't hold any TTP thank goodness but would be happy to help out tossing the odd rock etc...

25-03-2005, 01:41 PM

Tinker remember America has law something similar where all programmed orders are automatically cancelled.

Tinker

25-03-2005, 05:11 PM

Hi Enigma

Yes am aware that NYSE has progressive ""break periods"" dependent on the extent of a major fall. Just found it humorous how the Pakistani investors expressed their frustration.
Still a rise of 600% in the KSE index in 4 years ain't half bad so some must be happy.

Don't think I would like to be a Pakistani share boker but.

Cheers
Tinker

winner69

26-03-2005, 04:56 PM

If current valuations are the base for future returns then what Inder says in the Herald today is ominious .... a market at 26 times earnings is not a good place to be if one wants good returns over the next 5-10 years

Quote Inder

Although the New Zealand stock market fell only a little on the warning, jitters across the Tasman sent the Australian market into a dive, the largest one-day fall since February 2003, just before the war in Iraq started.

After a rise of more than 25 per cent in the past year, the New Zealand market is looking toppy. Excluding mining stocks, it is trading at a multiple of 26 times earnings - a rating normally associated with high growth.

The economy, while set to remain robust, looks unlikely to fit that description in the immediate future. Earnings in such an environment are likely to ease and, as a result, valuations will follow.

winner69

26-03-2005, 06:56 PM

Interest rates gpoinh up bad for stock markets

Will NZ follow the US rates up? Generally do

The Fed had its seventh consecutive rate hike and pushed Fed Funds rate to 2.75% (1% last June)

History would suggest that the Fed is just under half way through this round of rate increases .. ie probably another 8 or so rate increases .... another 2% at least on top of the current 2.75%

Previous post said high valuations not a good place to be for future returns ... esp with increasing interest rates

So watch those charts closely

winner69

26-03-2005, 06:59 PM

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

......Meanwhile the rat will be busily trading the cricket. A much easier market to trade, although the weather is making it interesting

ratkin mate - at least cricket is not interest rate sensitive

Winston001

26-03-2005, 08:59 PM

Is the NZ market really at a PE of 26? Seems hard to believe. I have beside me a Forsyth Barr report for Thursday 23rd March, with 50 stocks. There are only a few above a PE of 20.

Is this just hype or am I missing something?

Halebop

26-03-2005, 09:56 PM

Hype or maybe just "typos". The NZX 50 is on a PE around the mid 16s. I haven't checked out the "whole" market but the top 50 would weight the numbers pretty substantially. To say the forward PE was 26 would be expecting some fairly substantial profit falls.

While interest rate rises might push PEs down a notch or two and some companies will suffer profit drops I don't see profitability or share prices falling across the board by 40%.

However, for selective losers I think interest rates will have an impact and profits could come under pressure as well as capitalisation rates. A company earning 20 cents now on a PE of 16 could see profits drop to 18 cents and PE drop to 12 or 14, a loss of up to 33% without much effort or shock value.

whiteheron

26-03-2005, 10:36 PM

Profit sustainability will be of utmost importance from here on

Like Halebop says in the last paragraph of his above post "profits could come under pressure as well as capitalisation rates"
Taking his example , watch prices fall like autumn leaves on those companies that have had increasing earnings in the past where they can not sustain them in the future , especially where they suffer profit falls eg FPA

dingdong

26-03-2005, 10:42 PM

quote:Originally posted by winner69

After a rise of more than 25 per cent in the past year, the New Zealand market is looking toppy. Excluding mining stocks, it is trading at a multiple of 26 times earnings
[/i]

I didn't realise the NZCX had any mining stocks of note.

Oh wait, there's NOG. Forward PE of ??????? Or will it make another operating loss?

corwen

27-03-2005, 05:54 AM

The next few weeks could be interesting as the Americam market seems
poised to fall quite sharply,,,time will tell. This is where charts
help...watch closely

belgarion

27-03-2005, 09:22 AM

Just about every insurance stock has either broken or is about to break the 100 day MA. Not a good sign.

Other stables like GPG, IFT, AIA, POT etc. in steep down trends and past their 100 day MAs.

TELs fair value (PE15) and high yeild (5.8%) and huge weighting in the NZ50 is making the NZ50 look better than the overal parts of the whole.

I'd suggest the potential for bigger rises in US i-rates is seeing USD currently housed in NZ stocks making a return to somewhere else. NZD shift down from 74c would suggest same also. Anyone following actual NZD to 'other currency' volumes? A rise in volume would support this hypothisis maybe. Anyone confirm?

I'd say the bear has arrived ... But how long will he stay? (:))

winner69

28-03-2005, 09:27 AM

quote:Originally posted by Winston001

Is the NZ market really at a PE of 26? Seems hard to believe. I have beside me a Forsyth Barr report for Thursday 23rd March, with 50 stocks. There are only a few above a PE of 20.

Is this just hype or am I missing something?

Maybe Inder is right and the market valuations are a lot higher than we think

Look at the PEs of the NZSX10 (from IRG) - which makes up just under 50% of the total market cap

AIA 23.5
CAH 95.5
CEN 24.3
FBU 10.2
FPA 9.1
FPH 27.1
INL 37.6
SKC 17.3
TEL 13.4
WPT 15.1
AVERAGE 27.3

An average of 27 (not weighted by market cap or anything) but some big numbers there

whiteheron

28-03-2005, 11:00 AM

Interesting stats winner

I always treat stocks with a P/E above 20 with great care , a total return on your investment of only 5 % excluding capital growth is a very low return
Therefore for such stocks to have future growth potential they must have assured high future earnings growth , pretty hard to get with mature companies as their earnings tend to top off after some years of strong growth

The result is inevitably a struggling share price , often a sliding share price
For examples look at WHS or FPA

duncan macgregor

28-03-2005, 02:01 PM

I never pay to much attention to the PE of a share. I am much more inclined to look out for what news will be forth coming, and the effect on the company. I think that in general prices will flatten off, with a drop after the election. I think our dollar will fall later in the year, making the farm sector a good buy at that stage. If it drops i will be back into POT which should be a good buy later. The one sector for the macdunk dollar will be the power companies in the bad times. We are short of power, it cant go wrong. Manufacturing anything i wont touch with a barge pole.
Retail is a no no for me, with container loads of junk retailing at cost from china. I think depending on the dollar forestry will make a big comeback. Most shares are fully priced with some over priced, so not much room to move at the moment. A few of the service shares look good HQP is underpriced right now waiting to see if it drops some more try and buy back at the bottom. Regardless of a drop in the market, you can always find the sector, and the company that bucks the trend. That is my thoughts at the moment, no doubt most people have different ideas so lets hear about them.
macdunk

dingdong

28-03-2005, 02:31 PM

O Butter of the Scotches I agree that using historical PEs to determine current valuation is a useless measure. That said, it's hard to get enthused with the NZCX without any decent sized profitable resource company. Maybe I should float my dung company on the Cowboy Exchange to make up the numbers?

duncan macgregor

28-03-2005, 02:58 PM

ABDAB, my unworthy friend float your dung company on the AUSSIE market we in NZ have to many **** companies as it is. We have GEN, WDT, and RBD, who were caught selling cockroaches in place of their normal fowl manure in the secret recipe that colonel saunders sold them.
macdunk
PS when is the average in the AUS comp going to catch up to the NZ average in our one?.

zyreon

29-03-2005, 10:12 AM

down another 1%... damn

this is why we need short selling

rmbbrave

29-03-2005, 10:42 AM

CHH shares fall sharply after profit warning

29.03.05 11.25am

Shares in Carter Holt Harvey (CHH) fell 14c, or 6.7 per cent, to an 18 month low of $1.96 today after the wood products firm issued a profit warning.

The company said its operating profit for the March 2005 quarter would fall between $45 million and $50 million and it could be up to 42 per cent lower than the $77m recorded in the same period a year earlier. The result is due in April.

It was also the first time CHH had reported using the new international financial reporting standards (IFRS), it said in a statement to NZX today.

The key factors affecting the operating profit were having, under IFRS, to include the full impact of maintenance shuts, and no longer including goodwill amortisation.

There was also a softness for demand for wood products, particularly in Australia, the firm said.

"Demand in the residential building sector is yet to pick up after the traditionally slow Christmas holiday period," CHH said.

"The company is taking a number of steps to improve productivity in its wood products business in response to the market conditions.

"Overall the company is expecting its underlying financial performance for 2005 to be in line with expectations, assuming forex and pulp prices are at forecast levels."

Meanwhile, CHH said it would increase the value of its forest asset by $90m to $100m, making it worth about $1.565 billion.

Under IRFS, the forest asset was revalued quarterly, taking into account changes in average price, harvest and quarterly growth.

"Price improvements during the March quarter are the main reason for the forecast increase in value of the forest asset."

Looking ahead, CHH said it expected an improvement in market conditions in the second half of the financial year.

bongo66

29-03-2005, 11:22 AM

Good opportunities!!

Bling_Bling

29-03-2005, 01:06 PM

I have been saying for a long CAH and TEN is a dog. I even have them as a short in ST shorting stock in the beginning of this year.

29-03-2005, 06:13 PM

History and quantitative research shows that in times of rising inflation and interest rates, its commodities that outperform the market.

Consequently I'm taking advantage of this correction to pick up BHP or RIO.

Phaedrus

29-03-2005, 07:18 PM

Two weeks ago I posted a chart of the NZSE50 along with 7 trend indicators that had been unbroken for 2 years.
Todays fall in the Index broke 4 of these indicators.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/NZ50329001.gif

dingdong

29-03-2005, 07:32 PM

O Phaedrus I would be grateful and unworthy if could you please post the equivalent for the ASX200.

Gryffyn

29-03-2005, 09:12 PM

notice that the volume of talk on ST is in decline too...

whiteheron

29-03-2005, 10:30 PM

Thanks Phaedrus

The ominous signs are starting to show up more and more

The question is now , is this a major turning point or just a temporary breather that the market is taking ?

My pick is that there is some substance to the changes and I consider that the market is now heading downwards , or at least sideways

craic

30-03-2005, 07:44 AM

This extract is from Motley Fool newsletter today and may help to put things in perspective

Taking Advantage of Market Dips
By Shannon Zimmerman (TMF Zman)
Advisor, Motley Fool Champion Funds
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For long-term investors, however, now -- as with every market dip -- looks like an interesting buying opportunity. To be sure, you have to pick the right investments -- and that's precisely what my Champion Funds newsletter service is all about. But if you're going to be in the market for the next 10, 15, or even 20 years, why not take advantage of Mr. Market's periodic mood swings?

Worry warts
To be sure, there's never a guarantee that the market won't decline further. Market mavens are generally nervous nellies, and these days, their worries du jour come in triplicate: the sky's-the-limit price of oil; Alan Greenspan's inflation jitters; and those big -- and ever-growing -- concerns about the size of the U.S. budget deficit. And heck, if we really want to wring our hands, let's go ahead and throw in the soft dollar for bad economic measure.

Far be it from me to cast aspersions on the worry warts, but I generally think the time to invest for the long haul is just about always right now. Over time, the market has appreciated to the tune of roughly 10.5% annually, and I'm thoroughly convinced that a well-chosen basket of mutual funds can leave that mark in the dust.

But what, exactly, constitutes "well-chosen"? Good question.

trendy

30-03-2005, 09:56 AM

Ratkin you should change the heading from "awakening" to "awake"!

Maybe this coming Black Friday will indeed be a Black Friday.

The trends say it's time to be cashed up, plenty of buying opportunities will be coming up.

Placebo

30-03-2005, 01:20 PM

quote:Two weeks ago I posted a chart of the NZSE50 along with 7 trend indicators that had been unbroken for 2 years.
Todays fall in the Index broke 4 of these indicators.

Ha! See!? It's not all bad news you doom and gloom merchants! 3 indicators unbroken!

lucky

30-03-2005, 01:29 PM

Both the NZSE and ASX down another 1% each as at 2.20pm. becomming a daily event.

lucky

30-03-2005, 01:31 PM

And we know the share-market hates short weeks ???

whiteheron

30-03-2005, 01:35 PM

And historically it is not a good time of the year ( depending on how you see it )

The market often takes a breather around now

Footsie

30-03-2005, 01:40 PM

Looks to me like today is the low.
bargain hunters will return to the market.

like grey lynn property, the nz market has been undervalued for yrs and has been playing catch up. its now fairly valued - so is unlikley to fall much further IMHO

for eg TUA is now on a yield of about 8%. TUA is a growth coy!!!

Phaedrus

30-03-2005, 06:42 PM

Average True Range based trailing stop breached today. (Magenta line)

corwen

31-03-2005, 09:32 AM

PHAEDRUS

I have the opinion that the market is simply having a rest, as it
has been on a long uptrend now. I notice that when a stock is in trouble it often moves sideways for a short time, not go straight down.
Then I only use 3 moving averages and a drawn support line, which
I know is very basic. Nevertheless not all in instances have been
breached.

Bill

Paper Tiger

31-03-2005, 09:36 AM

Looks like today is the bear's day off :)

kura

31-03-2005, 04:51 PM

I was a buyer yesterday (seller today).

Agree with an earlier comment someone made like "downturn is comeing....but not yet"

Paper Tiger

31-03-2005, 05:37 PM

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Looks like today is the bear's day off :)

Seems he was just late to work :(

Paper Tiger

01-04-2005, 06:41 AM

I expect the bear to be hanging around today, putting his paw in now and again.

All together now: "Could be wrong, usually am".

cheers

Paper Tiger

Lawso

01-04-2005, 10:57 AM

Brian Gaynor on TV1 Business this a.m. attributed the falls of the last few days in part to big overseas investors selling out and taking their profits, as the NZD weakens and many predict a downturn in the NZ economy. In this regard he mentioned in particular FBU and NPX , which have been hit harder than one might expect, given the quality of the companies - that last comment is mine, not BG's.

limegreen

01-04-2005, 11:27 AM

Cheers Lawso. Interested to see that, as I wondered whether I was coming down with the NOG-fever in that I couldn't understand why FBU was being pummelled.

trendy

01-04-2005, 11:45 AM

I'm normally a optimist about the markets BUT the current environment gives me the spooks. I think this Black Friday is going to be the increasing start of bad trend downwards. Only have to look at the Nikkei today which is still trending downward. Better still look what has happened on the Karachi exchange last week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4382685.stm

The ripples are starting....

Disc: cash in hand and ready to pounce

01-04-2005, 11:53 AM

if u r paying attention to the bond market, u will notice the inverted yield curve. this usually means the market'll go down.

with skyhigh inflation, the short rate will probably goes up again. this is no good for stocks.

corwen

02-04-2005, 06:20 AM

Phaedrus

I have changed my mind....the charts have changed. Does not look
too good.

Bill

ratkin

02-04-2005, 09:21 AM

Dow down a hundred today, this bear is moving slowly waiting to pounce.
Feltex the latest to be mauled.
Remember that one sign is that good news is ignored while bad is severly punished. Feltex took a whooping. Yet look at sky tv. Fantastic result couldnt of been much better. It was heading to 7.00 everyone said so. Its now nearer 6.

What the bear really needs is a catalyst, something that will turn the trickle into a flood. What will it be?
Terrorism, oil, china, iran, korea. take your pick

trendy

04-04-2005, 12:16 PM

The bear has woken in the other markets...just wait for the NZX to turn downward today as well.

rmbbrave

04-04-2005, 01:38 PM

Australian economic party over, says forecaster

04.04.05 1.00pm

CANBERRA - The Australian economic party is over and might even end up in a recession, one of the country's most respected forecasters has warned.

Access Economics, in its latest business outlook, today warned a combination of bad policy and bad luck may be enough to tip Australia into recession for the first time since the early 1990s.

It said the hike in interest rates by the Reserve Bank last month, on top of an already slowing economy, combined with a lack of policy development by federal and state governments, would be enough to stall the economy.

With the Reserve a 50-50 chance to lift rates again this month -- in a bid to head off wages-led inflation -- Access said even if the country avoided a recession the days of stellar economic growth were over.

"Australia's growth party is over," Access said.

"There is therefore a risk that, in trying to slow the economy, the Reserve turns 2005 output growth into roadkill.

"If so, then output growth would continue to crawl through 2005, unemployment would stop falling (and may well increase), housing prices would resume falling and the Reserve would eventually reverse.

"A pause in recent growth via a recession may therefore be very unlikely, but it cannot be completely ruled out."

Although critical of the Reserve Bank and its rates strategy, Access said much of the blame for the economic problems now facing the country had to be sheeted home to federal and state governments.

It said the supply side of the economy was hitting a series of walls that could only be pulled aside by policies in areas such as infrastructure and skills development.

"Governments must encourage working by cutting effective marginal tax rates," it said.

"And governments could also do the sorts of things everybody agrees need doing but no-one has the courage to do, such as raising the age at which super and pensions can be accessed, toughening eligibility for the disability pension and championing genuine workplace relations reform."

Access warned the current account deficit, now over seven per cent of GDP, would take some time to fall.

While the global economy would continue to perform strongly, this was mostly due to just two markets -- China and the United States.

But it said a global economic bust was a chance because of the drag inflicted by Japan and Europe, and the failure of the US to tackle its current account deficit.

And although Australian commodity exporters were doing well from strong demand out of China, other competitor nations -- such as Brazil -- were bringing new mines into operation.

This would eventually push prices for such commodities as iron ore down, hitting Australian exports.

Access said it expects GDP this financial year to fall to 2.0 percent (from 4.1 percent), and work its way back up to 2.8 per cent in 2005-06.

It is tipping unemployment to stay at 5.1 percent before lifting to 5.8 percent in 2006-07, while average weekly earnings should grow 4.2 percent next financial year.

Private consumption is tipped to fall from 3.9 percent this financial year to 2.5 percent in 2006-07.

- AAP

Bling_Bling

04-04-2005, 01:57 PM

We are starting to see companies report increased profit and the share price doing the opposite and drops. Is the market telling us that the companies cannot sustain their profit and that there will be further downgrades in the near future?

Dazza

04-04-2005, 02:03 PM

n00b question:

cheque to: new zealand oil and gas limited?

or NZOG limited? or?

04-04-2005, 03:21 PM

The last two years saw all companies share prices go up regardless of performance. Today we are seeing all companies share prices go down regardless of performance.
The truth, as always, lies somewhere between. The "rising tide lifts all boats" of the last two years is over. However, there are still plenty of companies out there that will still be powering ahead despite whatever happens to the economy. The trick is to pick them, and then have the courage to buy when everyone else is selling.
Markets always over react to doom and gloom, and I've seen enough over the years to take advantage of it, so I am not complaining - it normally provides an opportunity for extra-ordinary profits (eg. ALL for 88c, now $10.20)

Bling_Bling

04-04-2005, 03:35 PM

The art is in the timing.

whiteheron

04-04-2005, 06:19 PM

Bling Bling

Yes , timing is everything , but it is one of the most difficult of all investing matters to get right

rmbbrave

05-04-2005, 09:28 AM

quote:Originally posted by KW

The last two years saw all companies share prices go up regardless of performance. Today we are seeing all companies share prices go down regardless of performance.
The truth, as always, lies somewhere between. The "rising tide lifts all boats" of the last two years is over. However, there are still plenty of companies out there that will still be powering ahead despite whatever happens to the economy. The trick is to pick them, and then have the courage to buy when everyone else is selling.
Markets always over react to doom and gloom, and I've seen enough over the years to take advantage of it, so I am not complaining - it normally provides an opportunity for extra-ordinary profits (eg. ALL for 88c, now $10.20)

Despite a result that analysts covering CanWest branded "solid", the company's shares closed down 7c at $1.93 a share.

Analysts said the drop was partly due to profit-taking and partly to investor nervousness over companies exposed to the domestic economic cycle. "In this kind of environment, a stock clearly has to produce good results just to stand still," Macquarie Equities research head Steve Hodgson said.

rmbbrave

05-04-2005, 09:30 AM

Exporters face win-win situation

05.04.05
By Brian Fallow

A weakening New Zealand dollar is set to take over from climbing world prices as the main driver of higher incomes for commodity exporters, ANZ Bank has said.

The bank's world commodity price index rose another 1 per cent last month, to be 14 per cent up on a year ago.

But three-quarters of the gain in world prices over the past year have been swallowed up by a higher exchange rate. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index is up 3.6 per cent on March last year.

World prices for lamb are at 19-year highs, dairy products at nine-year highs and aluminium at 10-year highs.

The bank's chief economist, John McDermott, said some of the recent strength in commodity prices represented a structural shift. For a century, agricultural prices had declined in value relative to manufactured goods but, during the past 10 years, that trend had been arrested.

Manufactured goods were the new commodities, reflecting overcapacity and the rise of China, while rising living standards lifted demand for the foods of affluence.
But, McDermott said, some of the recent strength in commodity prices was cyclical and could not last forever. "One would have to be cautious about where they go from here."

For the time being, however, the fundamentals of supply and demand looked favourable for most commodities, so world prices could remain high for some time.

"Asia has got a bit of a second wind and the United States seems to have got out of its soft patch."

But even when world prices fall, the ANZ expects commodity prices to keep rising in NZ dollar terms because of a weaker exchange rate.

The dollar has dropped nearly US4c from its peak in mid-March. ANZ believes the currency has peaked for this cycle and could fall another US10c, or 14 per cent, by the end of the year.

Its recent decline reflects the market taking on board the fact that the difference between New Zealand and world interest rates and economic growth is narrowing.

In addition, McDermott said, the state of the country's external accounts was now on investors' radar screens.

Overall, eight commodities rose last month, four recorded no change and only one, pelts, fell.

Dairy prices were unchanged but are still 20.9 per cent up on a year ago and at the highest level since January 1996. ANZ said a tight supply/demand balance favoured exporters and there was little in the way of stocks overhanging the market.

Lamb prices gained another 0.5 per cent last month to a new record in the 19-year history of the index.

For the second month in a row, beef prices rose.

Log prices were up 5.2 per cent, sawn timber 1.2 per cent and pulp 0.9 per cent. But the sector is still suffering from the strong dollar and high shipping rates and, despite gains over the past three months, prices remain below their levels a year ago.

Aluminium prices rose 5.1 per cent last month to be nearly 20 per cent up on a year ago.

whiteheron

06-04-2005, 08:51 PM

Has all of the doom and gloom fizzled out ???

Everybody happy again I take it !

Or is it just that the iceberg is 90 % under the water and waiting to strike ?

craic

06-04-2005, 09:17 PM

Three Cheers for a Bumpy Market!
By Shannon Zimmerman (TMF Zman)
Advisor, Motley Fool Champion Funds
OK, Fools, with the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P hovering near their respective 2005 lows, let's all wring our hands at the same time and get it over with, shall we?

Spiking oil prices. A soft dollar. The U.S budget deficit. Tepid jobs numbers. Inflation jitters.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
I'm no economist, nor do I play one on TV. For all I know -- heck, for all the economists know -- the market is headed for a major downturn, the likes of which haven't been seen since your Uncle Ernie had to walk uphill to and from school back in the day, the poor, hapless schmuck.

I nonetheless remain a long-term investor, but don't get me wrong: I don't have my head in the sand, nor do I look at the world through the kind of rose-colored glasses that Elvis Costello once -- for irony-drenched purposes, I'm sure -- used to wear. Far from it, in fact. I don't like shelling out in excess of $2 a gallon for gasoline. And as a pay-as-you-go kind of guy, I don't like the size of the U.S. budget deficit, either.

The good news
The good news, of course, is that capitalism remains the most resilient economic theory going -- and, beyond that, American capitalism in particular has a peculiar knack for shrugging off the market's occasional doldrums. With that in mind, I'm a big believer in the Foolish wisdom of taking advantage of the stock market's dips and making quality investments on the cheap.

And 2005, as it happens, is turning out to be a pretty good year for Wal-Mart-style (NYSE: WMT) blue-light shoppers. Popular S&P trackers such as the Spiders (AMEX: SPY) ETF and Vanguard 500 (FUND: VFINX) have, of course, suffered setbacks since the year began, as has Vanguard Total Stock Market (FUND: VTSMX), an index tracker that shadows the Wilshire 5000. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100-tracking Cubes (Nasdaq: QQQQ) ETF is off more than 8% since the beginning of 2005.

So, c'mon, go ahead. Get in touch with your inner investing cheapskate and sound it out loud and strong. Hip-hip-hooray! If you're investing for the long haul, after all, occasional market discounts really are something to cheer about.

Get active
That said, the blue light won't shine forever. Indeed, yesterday saw a modest uptick in the major indexes when, among other things, oil pulled back slightly from the $58-a-barrel mark. So, in such a choppy market environment, what's a Foolish investor to do?

Glad you asked. As the guy who runs point on the Motley Fool's Champion Funds newsletter service, I'm here to tell you that index investing -- at least as an exclusive strategy -- ain't all it's cracked up to be. Yes, yes: Over the very long haul, the typical actively managed fund loses out to the S&P. But there's a lot less to that observation than meets the eye.

You wouldn't buy the "typical" stock, now, would you? So whoever said you had to buy the "typical" mutual fund? Indeed, over the last 10 years, well over 400 funds have surpassed the S&P 500's mark, and the five-year number -- a period during which it has very much paid to have an active manager who can dodge bullets and snap up "fallen angels" -- is even more impressive: Through December 2004, roughly 1,600 domestic-stock funds have beaten the S&P.

Wake up and smell the Champs
As you might imagine, we focus in Champion Funds on the industry's S&P beaters. But while past performance is one of the yardsticks I use to make forward-looking recommendations, there are plenty of others. Indeed, I have a whole quiver of 'em.

Low expenses and gobs of managerial experience appear near the top of my shopping list, for example, and I'm also a big fan of managers who stick to their time-tested strategies in the face of apparent adversity. For disciplined types, after all, market slumps represent important opportunities to snap up shares of the stocks they like at a discount.

With that in mind, it's no coincidence that our Aggressive Champion Funds model portfolio (which makes its debut in the current

ratkin

21-04-2005, 03:09 PM

Having been accused in the last few days of ramping after the event i thought i had better ressurect my original thread which i started in early march.

The rat is no aftertimer, he was the first to jump the sinking ship like any good rat would

lambton

21-04-2005, 03:23 PM

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Having been accused in the last few days of ramping after the event i thought i had better ressurect my original thread which i started in early march.

The rat is no aftertimer, he was the first to jump the sinking ship like any good rat would

So what, you got something right. Want a medal or something?
Money making is about getting it right more often than not getting it wrong. It's not about being right all of the time so what's the purpose of your post. Is it the need I suppose all rats must have of wanting to be idolized instead of being reviled.

Paper Tiger

21-04-2005, 03:45 PM

Poor ratkin. A prophet not welcome in his own land.

I dedicate this my 1000th (ONE THOUSANDTH) post to you and the other harbingers of doom who selflessly incur the roth of the unenlightened to bring the real world to our attention.

regards

Paper Tiger

PS Did I mention that this is my 1000th post?

lucky

21-04-2005, 03:49 PM

Paper tiger, you poster you.

lambton

21-04-2005, 03:53 PM

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Poor ratkin. A prophet not welcome in his own land.

I dedicate this my 1000th (ONE THOUSANDTH) post to you and the other harbingers of doom who selflessly incur the roth of the unenlightened to bring the real world to our attention.

regards

Paper Tiger

PS Did I mention that this is my 1000th post?

You obviously know a hell of a lot - about something I guess.

No tears for ratso - they're used to being reviled.

lucky

21-04-2005, 04:37 PM

anyway Rat, a real good Rat would have stood back and allowed the women and children to from the sinking ship jump first.

TerryA

21-04-2005, 04:53 PM

>>'Roth' was a passable wallaby winger.<<

And a more than passable imbiber hence the alternative title of "The Grapes of Roth"

Liked the pun although there are a few AB's who would claim that he kicked more than passed.

lucky

21-04-2005, 04:54 PM

Not very good english from me in my previous post,,,must be this supurb red I am drinking. my apologes . hic

lanenz

21-04-2005, 07:32 PM

The Bear is awakening? I don't think so.
Quite posibly in America but not atleast for a few months here.
We are heading into winter now.[8D]

Cooper

21-04-2005, 07:37 PM

Really? The russkies are coming? That McCarthy fell down on his job....

Longtack

21-04-2005, 10:36 PM

Mustabeen Ed Roth "Portnoy's Complaint." All hail The Rodent.

nelehdine

22-04-2005, 07:10 AM

The Rocky Mountain Grizzly got a good hard "Mark MacGuire" homer across the nozzer in NY o/n ... Dow Jones +200 , NZ and OZ markets should finish the week on a brighter note !!

Placebo

22-04-2005, 08:36 AM

David Lee Roth?

leanmeanfightingmachine

17-06-2005, 08:15 PM

Amazing how this tread has gone so quite.

Looks like ratkin was wrong in the end and all she was reflecting was the mind set of a whole lot of mum and dad battlers who got the shakes over the last 3mnths. Therefore draging the market down, half of them probably read this crap thread.

Oh well the good news i got some bargins PVO 74c, MWL 1.60 and Baycorp 2.80 to name a few.

So market at 3170 where to now everyone?

LMFM

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

David Lee Roth?

Alpine Dragon

17-06-2005, 08:40 PM

Sometimes, it better not to read too much, keep it simple and just simply invest, (buy and hold) in blue chip companies and leave it. Those that come back for their investment 10 or more years later will probably find that they are more often than not, rewarded greatly. During my Teen years and until a 1-2 years ago, my share portfolio was growing at a rate of 10% P.A

It wasn't until I was given some of Kiyosaki's books by my parents that my investment plan turned to complete crap.
So I didn't lose money, but ended up Squandering an obscene amount of time investigating and trialling derivatives and other speculative instruments such as options futures and FOREX only to find that tests show only a 10-30% Probable return. Take away Tax and other expenses, and the returns look like complete rubbish. Although such instruments can be profitable if used by the right people with the necessary experience, it seem Obvious that it recently has become an avenue for sleazy self proclaimed gurus to target the vulnerable mum and dad market to extract thousands in seminar fees by pushing the leverage aspect of such instruments

Mistakes personaly made include Selling stocks too early, by acting on the advice of squillions of so called respected gurus all in tandem shouting "Secular Bear market!" as result, My investment portfolio has Stagnated on the sidelines while Markets were rocketing away and and tens of thousands of dollars sat there being lazy in the bank account ready to go in to derivatives, but will not be now.

Anyway lessons have been learned. This is not intended to be an insult to anyone on this forum, but it you are looking for objectivity, it's probably better to read these forums with extreme caution / skeptism (or not at all) as I note a sizable quantity of the content is largely emotionally charged aimed at boosting one's own ego.

--
usenetreplies@hotmail.com

17-06-2005, 10:29 PM

quote:Originally posted by leanmeanfightingmachine

Amazing how this tread has gone so quite.

Looks like ratkin was wrong in the end and all she was reflecting was the mind set of a whole lot of mum and dad battlers who got the shakes over the last 3mnths. Therefore draging the market down, half of them probably read this crap thread.

Oh well the good news i got some bargins PVO 74c, MWL 1.60 and Baycorp 2.80 to name a few.

So market at 3170 where to now everyone?

LMFM

the doomers always do... however Ratkin not quite as bad as Belgarion saying the same thing from late 2002 after which the NZX piled on 66%+:D

ONE DAY ROGER FINCH...ONE DAY

nice spotting LMFM

funny read

nelson

18-06-2005, 04:58 PM

Great opportunities presented themselves when the Ratkins of the world get all frightened and spooked.

Seem to have been their own shadows?

Which is why the sharemarket is only for the brave and experienced - buy low, sell high.

18-06-2005, 05:58 PM

:D:Dmore like a ghost

never to be seen again[:0]

craic

18-06-2005, 09:50 PM

If the bear came this week then I am happy to say that he left a six-and-a-half grand crap on my doorstep so I will leave some milk and honey cookies out for him next week in the hope that he will come again. But he's a friend - my real name translates to Bear.

19-06-2005, 02:29 AM

great night out...:D races tomorrow

Craic, that 6 and a half pound crap was Belgarion

what did you do with it?

[:0]

craic

19-06-2005, 07:01 AM

K9 $6,354 capital growth, friday to friday.

19-06-2005, 07:27 AM

Yep-history repeating itself really.It highlights that some people do not have the temperament for this market.

Dough Boy

23-06-2005, 01:10 PM

quote:Originally posted by Alpine Dragon

Sometimes, it better not to read too much, keep it simple and just simply invest, (buy and hold) in blue chip companies and leave it. Those that come back for their investment 10 or more years later will probably find that they are more often than not, rewarded greatly. During my Teen years and until a 1-2 years ago, my share portfolio was growing at a rate of 10% P.A

It wasn't until I was given some of Kiyosaki's books by my parents that my investment plan turned to complete crap.
So I didn't lose money, but ended up Squandering an obscene amount of time investigating and trialling derivatives and other speculative instruments such as options futures and FOREX only to find that tests show only a 10-30% Probable return. Take away Tax and other expenses, and the returns look like complete rubbish. Although such instruments can be profitable if used by the right people with the necessary experience, it seem Obvious that it recently has become an avenue for sleazy self proclaimed gurus to target the vulnerable mum and dad market to extract thousands in seminar fees by pushing the leverage aspect of such instruments

Mistakes personaly made include Selling stocks too early, by acting on the advice of squillions of so called respected gurus all in tandem shouting "Secular Bear market!" as result, My investment portfolio has Stagnated on the sidelines while Markets were rocketing away and and tens of thousands of dollars sat there being lazy in the bank account ready to go in to derivatives, but will not be now.

Anyway lessons have been learned. This is not intended to be an insult to anyone on this forum, but it you are looking for objectivity, it's probably better to read these forums with extreme caution / skeptism (or not at all) as I note a sizable quantity of the content is largely emotionally charged aimed at boosting one's own ego.

--
usenetreplies@hotmail.com

Could not agree more.

Have also looked to use futures for a currency hedge and found they cost as much as you can sensible expect to gain (without speculating) as this sector of the investment market is a zero sum game.

Also try to focus on simply reading The Economist as after 150years they certainly know how to report on world affairs and a daily newspaper. Stay way from bloomberg BS and such like, as if its noisy, exciting and has flashing graphics it will only rot your brain and turn you into a reef fishing moving with the daily currents and tides of change for no benefit.

Also if the economy and stockmarket generally have a long-term upside tread, then to invest long on a positive outcome the odds are in you favour.

craic

23-06-2005, 05:56 PM

Just before I read this thread, I checked my figures against yesterday. Happy to say my capital is up $3,000 overnight an that has been the trend for a few weeks. Ego? I don't think so. Today I spent mosty of my time swearing at a 95cc Husky chainsaw that I bought yesterday. Came inside tonight knackered and bandaged up a gashed hand, sank a couple of rums and came on here to check the numbers.I for one only report things as they happen to me - I have nmo interest in bragging to faceless individuals or making wild claims. Tomorrow I will be back on the chainsaw mill for the day if it doesn't rain too much. Beware of the prophets of doom.

Winston001

24-06-2005, 10:20 AM

quote:Originally posted by craic Today I spent mosty of my time swearing at a 95cc Husky chainsaw that I bought yesterday. Came inside tonight knackered and bandaged up a gashed hand, sank a couple of rums and came on here to check the numbers. Tomorrow I will be back on the chainsaw mill for the day if it doesn't rain too much. Beware of the prophets of doom.

Get a Stihl 066. Huskys are good but Stihls are great. :D

Lawso

24-06-2005, 11:38 AM

quote: Just before I read this thread, I checked my figures against yesterday. Happy to say my capital is up $3,000 overnight . . .
You may have given back most of that today, craic. I certainly have, with most of the leaders down sharply. Not to worry. Daily ups & downs are of no consequence as long as the trend is still in the right direction.

craic

24-06-2005, 12:08 PM

Lawso, just checked the figures as they stand at 1300 hrs.From fridays close, I am still ahead by $4,063 for the week - hope it holds till 5PM. NZR is covering a lot of the backpedalling, now at 4400 cps.
Winston001. A mate is a mechanic and sells and services Huskies. I have two other 100cc Huskies from the two series and they power a foty-eight-inch ripping bar each. I actually prefer the better of my two old saws to this latest Huskie with its electronic ignition.

At the weeks end I am still up by$1,257 on last friday. I can live with that.

Winston001

24-06-2005, 03:00 PM

quote:Originally posted by craic

Winston001. A mate is a mechanic and sells and services Huskies. I have two other 100cc Huskies from the two series and they power a foty-eight-inch ripping bar each. I actually prefer the better of my two old saws to this latest Huskie with its electronic ignition.

I'm impressed. Got a chainsaw mill going? I've got two Stihls of different sizes and wouldn't change but as I said, Huskys are good too. So many trees, so few saws. [}:)]

Paper Tiger

24-06-2005, 03:11 PM

Meanwhile on the NSX the bears are cutting down our stocks with an old fashioned axe.

Base Trader

25-06-2005, 12:06 AM

The Bears hold the march at the moment - but much of this has been triggered by the US$60 oil. However, I would not bet against global equities over the medium term unless we see the bond yields begin to rise. Then it is time to be afraid.

I read an interesting article economic commentry from one of the largest hedge Fund Managers in 2003 - speculating Oil at US$60 per barrel by 2005. He was a bear of course. And from memory his call has been accurate except that the global economy has not ground to a halt and the key difference is the low bond yields.

We are currently in a global reflation trade based on a Bond Market that has not spooked at any loud noises thus far (oil, GM/Ford downgrade, weakening USD) and I do not see this changing just yet. Hence, market dips I see as buying opportunities.

However, if we see bond yields increase – this is the time to be concerned. There is significant convexity built into the bond price / yield relationship from the financing of the US mortgage market as so there is the potential for yields/prices to move quickly (if you wish to know more about this fine - but least to say there is the potential for bonds to be dumped as yields rise due to the optionality of US Mortgage financing (a 8-10 trillion USD market).

There maybe some short term pain - especially in the cyclicals in NZ due to a slowing domestic economy (retail, NZ building/property etc) but some commodity sectors and infrastructure I still like. Longer term I like the NZX based on the FY2007 tax changes due regarding the new applications of capital gains tax. This may help many companies that suffer from a lack of investment liquidity (such as HQP and SKX) to find footing and reach PE multiple closing in on comparable overseas peers.

Major von Tempsky

25-06-2005, 08:03 AM

Must be time for Greenspan to cut interest rates again.
And for Cullen to cut taxes.....
In 1957 Labour won office with the infamous 100 pound
income tax rebate which National said we couldn't afford.
Then we had the even more infamous Black Budget.
Looks like Brash is on a winner to me.
Is the TAB quoting odds on the election outcome yet?

SEC

25-06-2005, 09:18 AM

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Longer term I like the NZX based on the FY2007 tax changes due regarding the new applications of capital gains tax. This may help many companies that suffer from a lack of investment liquidity (such as HQP and SKX) to find footing and reach PE multiple closing in on comparable overseas peers.

Very unlikely that tax changes will change the merits of investing in the NZX. An illiquid company exposed to the commodities cycle at its peak will remain just that, and continue to deserve a low PE rating. Furthermore, the reason why much of the money is invested overseas (like mine) is because there are very few good opportunities in NZ. Finally, if Cullen and Weldon are expecting a money bonanza in 2007 they will be disappointed because many many NZers will choose to migrate to where their money is invested (like me).

SEC

Base Trader

27-06-2005, 11:09 PM

I hardly think the tax change resulting in migration on mass - just a few where the economic and lifestyle option makes this worthwhile.

SEC's point with regard to the lack of NZ opportunity is exactly the point. There does not need to be a large redirection of funds (as a percentage) for buying to outstrip selling and prices to increase consequently.

The NZ discount is typically made on the quality of earnings and limited growth outlook (due to market size). However, I am willing to bet that PE earnings multiples will narrow between overseas comparables on the basis of cash seeking a home in NZ. Where else can the money go? Debt instruments? Property?

An average 33% hurdle is a large comparable threshold to surpass in all but the most optimistic forecasts.

It will only take a short while for this policy to be deemed a disaster but in the meantime I suspect it will inflate valuations.