POT - whats happened to the share price?

[Snapper]

Can anyone offer a reasonable explanation of why the share price has taken a hiding recently? Just had a look at the interim report and its not too bad -
Earnings up (modestly)
Profit up
Volumes up
Containers up
increasing coal imports
Low debt level.

Possible reasons -
Jon Mayson leaving
Downturn in forestry
PE rerated

Admittedly its down on fairly small volume. Also be interested to hear from any chartists for a TA perspective.

Any thoughts??

[Paper Tiger]

The market generally is going down and POT is amongst the majority of stocks with a declining SP.
Even MFT has gone down the market is that bearish ;)
Disc: MFT amongst others

[whiteheron]

Yes , as I see it , there is definitely the start of some negative sentiment starting to show in the market

Whether it is the market taking a temporary breather or the start of something more permanent only time will tell
But I guess that talking about it like we are doing is all adding a little bit to the overall sentiment

The market has shown absolutely phenomenal growth in the last two years and as much as we may like it or wish it this simply cannot continue indefinitely

My hope is that the market will now settle at around current levels for some time

I dont profess to be an expert ; these are my feelings and reading of the situation

The increasing interest rates , in my opinion essentially engineered to calm house prices , effects other sectors of the economy as well such as the exchange rate , sharemarket prices , investment , consumption / spending etc etc etc

Where things are headed will only be accurately revealed in the fullness of time

[duncan macgregor]

SNAPPER, From my point of view it is coming down nicely. A share price is ruled by expectation, plus good or bad news. It is the best port company in the southern hemisphere, got everything going for it, and the price drops. The NZ dollar is to high killing forestry. When the dollar drops, and hopefully POT sp macdunk will return. I have had a great run with ports so far POA at $6-25 and sold one year later at $8-10 plus divis. POT bought at $4-40 and sold at $5-60 plus divis. The idea is to work out the medium term expectation, and right now it is dead flat and dropping. Forestry is the key word for POT, and a low dollar is the key word for forestry. POT will continue to go down until the dollar drops then buy up big it is a great company. macdunk

[Paper Tiger]

You still can not stay away from the POT heh MacDunk?

:)PT

[whiteheron]

I, like macdunk , sold my POT holding when I felt it was fully priced and I did quite nicely
Did not sell at the top , but happy nevertheless

POT is a great company ( one of NZs best I believe ) and it will rise again when the signals are right

I will be looking to re purchase POT at some appropriate time --- it has heaps going for it long term

[duncan macgregor]

PAPER TIGER, started out on one to old to be bothered about the other [prefer a wee dram] but i will be back. macdunk

[Phaedrus]

Snapper,
Technically, POT has been weak all this year. It gave a trendline break Sell signal in December and the hitherto rising On Balance Volume broke its trendline and began falling at the end of January. Either of these indicators would have given an exit at $5.50 or higher. The downtrend POT was in was forming a tidy trend channel, but this was broken on 18/3/05. This was unexpected since the formation had been preceded by an uptrend and so an upside breakout was the more likely outcome. I doubt that many TA followers would have been holding at that point though.
A 100 day moving average has always been quite profitable with this stock, and gave a good confirming exit signal here too. (Not charted)
You can easily see that POT had previously found support at $5.05. That was broken today, with a Close of $5.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/POT323001.gif

[Snapper]

Thanks for your comments (and the chart, Phaedrus). I've always liked POT but it's seemed expensive over the last year or so. I'd like to buy in under $4.50 or so but I can't see that happening unless the market really tanks. What impresses me is that they've still managed to grow their earnings despite the log market. I think its a story that can only improve but I'd like to buy in at or near a market bottom.