Retail Stocks - Where have all the shoppers gone?

[willy_wonker]

Was out at Botony Downs with the Mrs shopping on Sunday. Making up for Valentines day.

The likes of Briscoes, Rebel Sports, Noel Leeming...etc was like a Ghost town. Even with the sales on, there seem to be no shoppers around. Most of the shoppers seems to be walking around bored instead of buying goods.

[Morch]

The writing was on the wall for all retail stocks late last year when they all flogged themselves to death with promotions, and IMHO NZ has far to many big retailers for its size.

Another major problem for retail is the major hit on all exporter incomes which again IMHO will/is flowing through the entire economy.

Regards Morch :)

[J. Holmes]

..."even with the sales on"???? when is Briscoes not having a sale?

Them and Rebel are perpetually having sales - poor marketing as the whole "sale" thing has been flogged to death and everyone is sick of it. If you pay full price for something at Briscoes then you have been sucked in!

THE KING says thanks boys for talking down the stock as i know a willing buyer.:D:D[8D][8D]:D:D

[Gryffyn]

Rebel are going to revisit their strategy as they are now percieved as the Briscoes of sport with sales etc. Seems its generated a view of them being a cheapy store and they think this is having an adverse effect.

At least you know where you are with WHS :-)

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says thanks boys for talking down the stock as i know a willing buyer.:D:D[8D][8D]:D:D


Please enlighten us as to why you are buying, KING?

Dont worry KING, plenty of shares coming from the institutions as they are a bunch of SHEEP.

[craic]

Where have all the shoppers gone?

TO----------THE WAREHOUSE, THE WAREHOUSE
WHERE EVERYONE GETS A BARGAIN!

THE KING says what you like but i do like the word REBEL flashers in front of all the TV rugby watchers eyes marked on the grounds as most KIWI`s love the sport and buy the outfits at 17 stores across NZ

As for Warehouse at current prices a lot of holders must be suffering as the BGR holders who are relucktant to sell at great losses this makes for bargain time for new entrants.

A GREAT BUY BRG AND THE KING HAS JUST BOUGHT, BUGGER.:D:):D

Watching from Paraparaumu THE KING

[huds]

Duke’s been way to quiet, something’s got to give

[Morch]

BGR could go to $1.40 if that does not hold then its list price or lower. WHS could go to $4 if that does not hold you may be able to pick it up for $3 over the next 6 months. Of course they would be over sold at the lower levels but thats the way it often goes before a new trend emerges.

Regards :)

Disc: don't own either yet

THE KING says all ways remember Gerry Harvy has ready stated he is a willing buyer would add 37 stores to his NZ chain at not much effort.
Pepole at the top have little trouble staying there.[8D]

Notice sellers very relucktant to sell but slow buyers could be left behind, Good luck to all contestants.:D:D

Meanwhile back at Paraparaumu just look what happened at MXI.:D:D

THE KING

[willy_wonker]

I agree and disagree with you there KING.

The question is, will the majority shareholder who owns over 75% sell to Harvey Norman? Why didnt Harvey buy the shares during the IPO at $1.00 instead of paying $1.50 today? I do agree Harvey will take out the company if it gets too cheap, maybe not at these prices. I do think there is further downside to BGR at these levels.

I am still looking and waiting. It is a matter of when and not if I buy.

[willy_wonker]

How many stores does Harvey Norman currently have in New Zealand?

THE KING says Mr Duke started his Job life off working for G Harvy in AUS and stated off BRG before a lot of Aussie companys reliased that NZ was a money making country, Like Foodlands, buying Woolworth,Farmers and others when GH started into NZ things had then changed like today as past is history.

When the IPO was on Mr D would not sell to GH who had made an offer but gave the NZ pubic a chance to join in that happened,now people have short memorry and because rockets dont go off every 5 mins public drop there bundle a true investors have long mem`s and buy when other investors are flat on ther back`s.

I did say 37 stores should be 47 stores to the young players like Morch I says the world never comes to an end and prices never fall of the boared if you wait you will never own share`s and remain poor or worst still you grow older very fast both of these are bad results, have fun.[8D]

Just go back and read BRG last report its not so bad after all.

:D:D:D THE KING

[willy_wonker]

KING, if The Duke will not sell to GH at IPO, then why would he sell now? Foodlands got Progressive very cheap. Old Van Arkyle is a smooth operator and looking to further expand and dominate the market.

You are tempting me old boy ! I do noticed that BGR share price weakness comes in late afternoon, NZ time. Aussie order?

Willy, waiting with salivation.

THE KING says in the mean time Willy go and Kiss the Partner/mrs or whatever to pass the time of day because THE KING is IN, BGR for the KILL.[}:)]

:D:D:D:D THE KING

[willy_wonker]

Na, the mistress is out of town. Willy is bored.

[Barrel Scraper]

While we're on the Briscoes track... Can someone explain the reasoning behind the SSH notice in BGR news 3 Feb ?
Can we percieve any advantage in transferring the holding to a nominee or guardian ? - all looks gibberish to me.

[The Doctor]

Barrelscraper..check but I think Dukes moratorium on Not being able to sell down his holding may have elapsed or be due to and this sort of arrangement is aq beneficial one in regards to any transactions he may now choose to pursue...might do a Nobilo before the share crashes.

[willy_wonker]

Doc, please enlighten us more on your theory. I am interested, as I am looking to enter back into BGR at the right time.

[willy_wonker]

What is interesting is that HLG & MHI has held up very well compare to other retail stocks.

[willy_wonker]

BGR dont look too good. I think it is insto selling from Aussie or Asia.

[The Doctor]

As I understood it Duke was bound to not dispose of any of his shareholding in the immediate 18-24mths? from the initial listing date--when that date lapses he can sell shares to whoever he chooses,for whatever reason.

[nelehdine]

BGR offered at 140 .... might have to double up soon !!

Disc: Dipped toe in BGR water 10 days ago at 157 !!!! EEEKKK dn 10pct already !!! ( only 2pct of portfolio at moment ... might have to up the ante to 5 !!!! )

[willy_wonker]

BGR have gone below the support level.

Any chart specialist out there can give us a charting analysis on BGR?

I may put an order to buy around $1.00.

[nelehdine]

Just added some more at 139 ... while I agree Cantab with your thoughts I think Duke is a pretty straight up operator and ay an average of 147 now my holding is only 4.5% of my portfolio. Dividend looks reasonably safe to me with good cover last year so will just enjoy the income in the meantime .... takeover talk will swirl aroung BGR if they drop much further. As a pure NZ play they don't come with the baggage of WHS and PRG ... that's why I chose them ahead of WHS .... wouldn't touch PRG above $1.50

[nelehdine]

Cheers Cantab ... not going to make me zillions that's for sure, but a 20pct rebound plus 7.5c divi by Xmas would be a good result.
$1.40 * 1.2 = $1.68 ( hardly a huge bounce from $2.80 !! )

[willy_wonker]

Was out at Briscoes Albany yesterday at around 5pm. There were only three customers in the entire shop including myself.... OMFG ! More staff than customers. This is not a good sign guys, especially with the sale still on.

Good luck.

Willy, still waiting with eyes open.

[Barrel Scraper]

A workmate of mine was in BGR New Plymouth last week - he said he was surprised that there didn't appear to be much stock on the shelves, but reported that the place was packed with shoppers..
Same person also commented that Briscoes was a better place to shop than WHS - he felt WHS product broke too easy.....and I thought that stigma had resided over recent years?.

Did anyone see the Duke donating 20K to the Holmes flood telethon last night ?

THE KING says actrual numbers of shoppers in a store at any given time bear NO relationship to how a chain is doing it at the count time that counts, I visited Porirua a well fitted out store on a Tuesday a fair number of shopper`s at the time with the till turning over nicely. made small talk with various leveles of staff to a few surprises, stock was delivered on the hour every hour store well presented out so i bought the new type ****tal blue rimed style glasses, Well done KING.:D

Heared all the new rummers one about comming management resuffel so what, But staff did not know the current share price including the manager, remarked that he should pull a finger out of you where.[:p]

All in all traveling just as well as every one else in NZ. as said before dont expect rockets but BGR is the BUY. [8]

Watching from Paraparaumu THE KING

[willy_wonker]

DEAD CAT BOUNCE on BGR. :D

Wait for the insto selling in the afternoon coming from Aussie.

THE KING says Wonk it may come as a surprise to you that i would say there was not much Instut`s holders as you think also there would be even less Aussie holders other than THE KING as NO one in AUS has ever heard about BRISCOE Limited.

You sould talk less and buy more.:D[8D]:):D

[nelehdine]

How do you know what Aussie Institutions are up to WW ??? Do you work for AMP or Colonial ??

THE KING says this the current owner position as at 3rd April 2003 of BGR Known as Briscoe Limited.

Total s/holders 4,893.

Top 20 control 89%.

The Duke Family control 75%
Gerry Harvey & Norman harvey prop`s control 5%

Very few Instu`s other holding Co as custodians.
All the rest are small KIWI holders + THE KING from Aussie.

Conclusion. All small hoders wheel very little say in the Co
other than set the local share price.;)

Watching from Paraparaumu THE KING

[nelehdine]

All your Aussie mates must have spent the afternoon at Bondi beach Willie !!
BGR 146/147 +6

Disc: Hold BGR

[Placebo]

Some good numbers from BRG and HLG yesterday on post-Xmas sales. Given that early summer sales were poor, this is probably just a balancing act. And a lot of it would be discounted summer stock shifting out. in the case of BRG, total sales were up 17% in dollar terms but gross margins were down.

No doubt these results are reflected across all seasonal retailers, PPL and WHS etc. Not sure how MHI would be affected.

It's a tough old world out in retail land. Those interest rates must start to bite soon; the banks are soaking up a lot of extra cash these days.

[Phaedrus]

Here is a 3 year chart showing the comparative performance of some retail stocks vs the NZSX50 Index. Apart from the marked exception of PPL, they are a decidedly lacklustre group. Historically, retail stocks have generally given mediocre returns as longterm investments.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/Retail59001.gif

[moe]

that chart cetainly paints a picture

[BRICKS]

THEY have all gone to SMITHS CITY the best takeover target in TOWN.. [8D]

[tim23]

Yet another comment from an idiot.

[Deev8]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Yet another comment from an idiot.Don't be so hard on yourself Tim. :)

[Hommel]

Re BRICKS. I am holding a few SCY as I think that it could be a potential t/o target. May even buy more at some stage...

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Hommel

Re BRICKS. I am holding a few SCY as I think that it could be a potential t/o target. May even buy more at some stage...


GOOD lad if you look at the complete list of Retail stocks on the NZX they all appear bloated for one reason or another even the CEO of SMITHS could not explain there cheapness so time will tell.. [8D]