Longer Term Trading System - Monarch 1 Test

[arco]

http://familyfun.go.com/Resources/Features/homegarden/gardening/famf0502_proj_butgar7.gif

The system is still in trial mode and I am
testing it on GBP.USD, EUR.USD & USD.CHF

GBP.USD.
Although we have many supportive signs
indicating a turn is imminent, this
new LT system remains short (until the
SL is hit or a contra signal is given).

LT system signal.
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 8952
Current ATR trailing stop 8339
Guaranteed locked in profit +613

[Xerof]

Arco, when it comes out of its "chrysalis" will you be philanthropically posting your entry/exit signals here on the forum, or will it be by subscription?

I have plenty of 'swan plants' which might attract some of your butterflies - my planning for 'Xerof fund' is well advanced, and I would be delighted to be able to follow your flight plans for longer term trades

regards

Xerof

[lakedaemonian]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Arco, when it comes out of its "chrysalis" will you be philanthropically posting your entry/exit signals here on the forum, or will it be by subscription?

I have plenty of 'swan plants' which might attract some of your butterflies - my planning for 'Xerof fund' is well advanced, and I would be delighted to be able to follow your flight plans for longer term trades

regards

Xerof


ditto :D

[arco]

Xerof/LDI

I will be placing the trades for free here on ST, but
as this is early days please use a demo account
if you wish to follow them .

In back testing the system has sufferred some whipsawing
in range bound markets and therefore some drawdowns can
be expected. The overall result is still VG if you can
cope with a few occasional losses.

I am currently working on additional TA techniques to try
to minimise these effects.

Here are the other 2 open trade running results.

USD.CHF
Entered 1920 Current TSL 2296 Guaranteed profit +376

EUR.USD
Entered 2924 Current TSL 2501 Guaranteed profit +423

I am still looking at other pairs which the system may suit.

arco

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by arco


The overall result is still VG if you can
cope with a few occasional losses.


as if I dont have to at the moment....[B)]
I am trying to get a demo account setup tho.

[Dazza]

quote:Originally posted by arco


http://familyfun.go.com/Resources/Features/homegarden/gardening/famf0502_proj_butgar7.gif

The system is still in trial mode and I am
testing it on GBP.USD, EUR.USD & USD.CHF

GBP.USD.
Although we have many supportive signs
indicating a turn is imminent, this
new LT system remains short (until the
SL is hit or a contra signal is given).

LT system signal.
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 8952
Current ATR trailing stop 8339
Guaranteed locked in profit +613





Arco, do u mind if u could explain a bit more about the butterfly system/
i note that alot of u FX traders talk about the butterfly TA...

ive come to grips with the gartley and GW theory... howeva butterfly is new to me..

*trying to learn as much as possible, and preparing for some FX action in a few months time :D*

howeva my IG markets chart's suxs!! i mite get metastock when im rich enough... u use metastock eh arco?

[arco]

Dazza

There are many elements to this LT system
and it is not solely based on the Butterfly
pattern alone.

FYI. The Butterfly is just an extension of Gartley
and the Bat is a Butterfly derivative.

The book you need to get you started is

Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition -
By Larry Pesavento

Hope that helps

arco

[arco]

[u]Monarch 1 LT system signals. </u>


GBP.USD
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952
ATR trailing stop: Move to 1.8316

Guaranteed locked in profit +636
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924
ATR trailing stop: Move to 1.2379

Guaranteed locked in profit +545
---------------------------------------------------

CHF.USD
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920
ATR trailing stop: Move to 1.2389

Guaranteed locked in profit +469

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 3 June.
No amendments required.


GBP.USD
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952
ATR trailing stop: 1.8316

Guaranteed locked in profit +636
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924
ATR trailing stop: 1.2379

Guaranteed locked in profit +545
---------------------------------------------------

CHF.USD
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920
ATR trailing stop: 1.2389

Guaranteed locked in profit +469

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 4 June.
No amendments required.

[peat]

arco can I please clarify how I am meant to read these trade suggestions and how they operate

your lastest entry on Eur/$ =
__________
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924
ATR trailing stop: 1.2379
Guaranteed locked in profit +545
__________________

if the low printed since the start of this trade is 1.2158 and your trailing stop is currently 1.2379 that is approx a 220 pip trailing stop. Was that the recommendation from the beginning ?
I guess I'm invoking a general discussion re how much of a retracment signifies a turn and how your system works with that. If your trailing stop is too large you give back all your profits when the market does turn, if its too small you get snaffled by the retracements as I did with the NFP spike to 1.2343 on Fri nite. (hence my curiousity)
I really thought I had enough leeway but nope MR HUNT ME DOWN AND STOP ME came out with his machete. I'm user larger stops now that I used to but there is of course a danger in this.

I know we;ve broached this topic before but the answers have all been vague. Seems to me that trailing stops depend on your time frame.

Are the trailing stops varied for each call in your system?

[arco]

Peat

The Monarch stop is based on closing prices – not intraday spikes, therefore the close at 2280 is only 99 pips away from the stop.

One technique for establishing an appropriate exit point is the ATR trailing-stop technique. Very simply, the trailing stop maintains a stop-loss order at a precise amount below the market price (or above, in the case of a short position). The stop is adjusted continually based on fluctuations in the EOD price, always maintaining the same percentage below (or above) that figure. The trader is then "guaranteed" to know the exact minimum profit that his or her position will achieve. This level of profitability is previously determined based on his or her predilection toward aggressive or conservative trading.

Deciding what constitutes appropriate profits (or acceptable losses) is perhaps the most difficult aspect of establishing a trailing-stop system for disciplined trading decisions.

ATR stops are based on EOD figures and the ATR multiplier can be reduced slightly to give a tighter stop.

e.g.

ATR 1.5 would stop at 2324 (you would have been stopped out on a pre-set stop).

ATR 1.75 would sit at 2352 adding 27 pips to the tally.

ATR 2 is currently at 2379

Long term systems need wider stops to allow the daily fluctuations to ‘breath’. Using an ATR trailing stop allows you to let profits run while cutting losses if the action reverses.

The stop at the beginning of the trade would have been using a CBL3 technique just above the candle of 25/4

What I am trying to do is make this LT system basically a once a day ‘set and forget’.

Hope that answers your questions.

arco

[Xerof]

And if I may my 2 and 6 pence Peat, you would have had to have been 'in' to this position (or all these positions that Arco is updating his trailing stops on), at the original levels stated.

It would be a brave person to enter them at current levels with the same stops.

I am waiting for the Monarch 1 system to signal NEW entries, and or turn levels for the current short positions, rather than try to leap on the train that left the station sometime ago, if you get my drift


Xerof

[peat]

cheers for the replies guys

EOD huh.
Thats a much more committed state to be in! You're saying that you wont even close out if the position goes seriously bad during the day? Riding bareback haha! Position sizing becomes more important with a strategy like that, due to reliance on a limit to the max daily delta.

Given one can predict daily volatility within certain likelihoods I suppose its acceptable though. For Eur/$ it would seem that over the last few years open to close hasnt got beyond 250 pips. Once every 10 years or so tho, you might get a nasty shock at The End Of The Day.

But given my feelings toward stops as expressed above maybe its useful way to go.

I dont know what ATR is as I write this. But have just found a huge blurb on that at
http://www.startraderreport.com/Articles/ATR%20Trailing%20Stop/ATRStopArticle1.html
so will check it out and re-evaluate.

[arco]

Peat

The site you gave gives excellent information on the ATR trailing stop and also shows the initial CB (Count Back) line technique.

http://www.startraderreport.com/Articles/ATR%20Trailing%20Stop/ATRStopExample1.gif

The preferable way to use the ATR stop is to only exit on an EOD close which closes through the stop. This relieves the problem of false exits if daily volatitly/spiking is a problem. Also a way to cover this situation during the trading day could be to place the actual stop a little way off the actual ATR figure.

Nothing is going to be totally perfect :)

arco

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 7 June.

This morning signals will be delayed due
to a technical problem at Reuters.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 7 June.
No amendments required.

The ATR is currently set at 2 which is quite low for a longer term system. Normally for short-term share trading, a trailing profit stop of 2 - 2.5 ATRs is used, and for medium-long term share trading, a trailing profit stop of 3-4 ATRs is used. Of course when we see a possible reversal forming there is always a temptation to lower the figure say to 1.75 to gain a few extra pips , however I have left the figure at 2, and we will see how it performs.

The chart below shows the problem of setting the ATR too tight.

http://www.startraderreport.com/Articles/ATR%20Trailing%20Stop/ATRStopExample2.gif

[peat]

ATR is calcualted by my platform but not the ATR trailing stop. Maybe I will have to do some maths!! thats scary lol

So the big questions here is what number multiplier that one uses... (somewhere between 2 and 3 generally) and there is also a variable that my system allows to be set when calulating ATR - the default was 13 but that article above used 21. I suspect the difference is pretty minimal after all the ATR values being produced are generally around 0.1 to 0.2
I dont get this Count Back thing tho.... not sure if that really matters to me much ....

As per the article but tryin to migrate it to the a Eur short position is the maths something like this?
Last closing price + (ATR x Multiplier) = Trailing Stop
eg 1.2280 + (0.1 x 3)
= 1.5280 (doesnt seem right)
where am I going wrong here.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 8 June.

GBP.USD
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952
ATR trailing stop: 1.8316

Stop Hit. Profit taken +636

No new signal at present
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924
ATR trailing stop: 1.2379

Guaranteed locked in profit +545

No amendment required.
---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920
ATR trailing stop: 1.2389

Guaranteed locked in profit +469

No amendment required.

[rocket science fiction]

peat,
the ATR variable 13 or 21 is just the number of days thats being averaged. whichever one you use, (with a multiplier) you need to backtest to make sure you arent stopped out too soon.

i think your maths is ok, but your ATR should be .01 instead of .1 in your example

heres a chart that may make it clearer.
euro is 122.85 in this scale, and ATR 13 is 0.876 (ATR 21 is 0.872)
if you change it to your scale of euro being 1.2285 instead then you also need to change the ATR to 0.00876 etc
http://www.geocities.com/checking37/euro_atr.png

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 9 June.

GBP.USD
No new signal at present.

Note: Using 2.75 ATR the trade would still be open
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924
ATR trailing stop: 1.2379

Guaranteed locked in profit +545

No amendment required.
---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920
ATR trailing stop: 1.2389

Guaranteed locked in profit +469

No amendment required.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 10 June.

GBP.USD
No new signal at present.

Note: Using 2.75 ATR the trade would still be open
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924
ATR trailing stop: 1.2379

Guaranteed locked in profit +545

No amendment required.
---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920
ATR trailing stop: 1.2389

Guaranteed locked in profit +469

No amendment required.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 11 June.

GBP.USD
Re-enter short at 8058 with CBL3 Stop .

Note: Using 2.75 ATR the original
trade would still be open

---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2329

Guaranteed locked in profit +595

---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2473

Guaranteed locked in profit +553

[arco]

GBP.USD

Amending - removing short order and
staying flat.

The longer term signal is still showing
a south-bound bias, however I feel its
prudent at the moment to remain flat as
I still have some concerns until GBP clears
the Gartley/Butterfly reversal areas.

[slam]

arco
If you don't mind divulging, what time scale do you use on your charts for this system? (tell me to naff off if you wish[8)])

tia
Slam

[arco]

Slam

All based on daily candles.

arco

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 14 June.

GBP.USD
Remain on the sidelines.

Previous results[b]
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952 Profit taken +636
Note: Using 2.75 ATR the original
trade would still be open with SL8359 +593

---------------------------------------------------

[b]EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2246

Guaranteed locked in profit +678

---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2560

Guaranteed locked in profit +640

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 15 June.

GBP.USD
Remain on the sidelines.

Previous results
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952 Profit taken +636
Note: Using 2.75 ATR the original trade would
still be open with SL8359 +593
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2244

Guaranteed locked in profit +680

---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2564

Guaranteed locked in profit +644

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 16 June.

GBP.USD
Remain on the sidelines.

Previous results
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952 Profit taken +636
Note: Using 2.75 ATR the original trade would
still be open with SL8359 +593
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2240

Guaranteed locked in profit +684

---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920

ATR2 trailing stop: Move to 1.2566

Guaranteed locked in profit +646

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 17 June.

No change to yesterday instructions.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 17 June.

GBP.USD
Remain on the sidelines awaiting new signal.

Previous results
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952 Profit taken +636
Note: Using 2.75 ATR the original trade would
still be open with SL8359 +593
---------------------------------------------------

EUR.USD
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924

Stop Hit. Profit taken +684

Remain on the sidelines awaiting new signal.

---------------------------------------------------

USD.CHF
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920

Stop Hit. Profit Taken +646
Remain on the sidelines awaiting new signal.

[peat]

well done arco. exceptional trades.

I'm sure we are all eagerly awaiting your next generated signals [:p]

:D

[arco]

Hi Peat

Signals on the longer term trades will appear
less frequently. The bias on the system is still
technically short GBP & EUR, so I will probably be
looking to re-enter at the exit prices (or better).

Anyone reading this thread for the first time please
remember I am presently testing this system so it should
not be followed with real money currently.

arco

[peat]

Of course trades will be less frequent Arco I fully appreciated that, it is after all, a LTTS.
Its unlikely some money wont follow your calls tho, imo. ;)

Now you will be able to use the close of these positions in future back-testing and decide whether the multiplier was correct

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 21 June.

GBP.USD
Awaiting new signal.

Previous results
Entry indicated 3/5 @ 1.8952. Profit taken +636
Note: Using 2.75 ATR the original trade would
still be open with SL8359 +593
--------------------------------------------------
EUR.USD
Awaiting new signal.

Previous results
Entry indicated 28/4 @ 1.2924. Profit taken +684
---------------------------------------------------
USD.CHF
Awaiting new signal.

Previous results
Entry indicated 29/4 @ 1.1920. Profit Taken +646

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 22 June

No new signals as yet.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 23 June

Still waiting for the retracement/consolidation
phase to sort itself out before the system will
get positioned again.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 24 June

Its looking like the ATR's may need a little
tweaking on this Long Term system. Perhaps to
2.50 or 2.75.

For the time being we will still remain flat.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 25 June

Oscillators proved their value yesterday.

Situation still appears as stated on 13/6 and
therefore we remain on the sidelines for now.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 29 June

The USD still looks strong, however I want to
see the Butterfly areas cleared before re-entering
in the same direction as previously.


U.S. June consumer confidence hits 3-year high (by Rex Nutting)
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. consumer confidence index rose to a three-year high of 105.8 in June, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 104.1 from a revised 103.1 in May. The present situation index rose to 120.7 in June from 117.8 in May, while the expectations index increased to 95.8 in June from 93.4 in May. The improvement "suggests that business activity and labor market activity will continue to pick up over the next several months," said Lynn Franco, director of the board's consumer research unit. For the first time in nearly three years, the proportion of consumers who believe jobs are plentiful exceeded the number who think jobs are hard to get.

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 30 June.

Its a bit like watching glue dry, but we're gonna
have to stick to the rules.

No new entry signalled as yet.

[Dazza]

what r ur rules 4 this system?

[arco]

Dazza

Bit complex really. All to do with the moon,
stars, hatching Monarchs, Major Ganns army,
spiders and bats, etc.

But mostly I phone Xerof to get his ideas
and use those as a contrarian indicator;)

Sometimes I just do the opposite, or toss a coin.

Finally I drink a pint of Bats blood and then check the
pendulum.....If it swings left of my zipper I go long.
If it swings right I get short.

The Law of Averages dictates we make piles.
(But I understand you can get cream for those now
- so not a problem anymore).

So there we have it in a nutshell.

[lakedaemonian]

quote:Originally posted by arco


Dazza

Bit complex really. All to do with the moon,
stars, hatching Monarchs, Major Ganns army,
spiders and bats, etc.

But mostly I phone Xerof to get his ideas
and use those as a contrarian indicator;)

Sometimes I just do the opposite, or toss a coin.

Finally I drink a pint of Bats blood and then check the
pendulum.....If it swings left of my zipper I go long.
If it swings right I get short.

The Law of Averages dictates we make piles.
(But I understand you can get cream for those now
- so not a problem anymore).

So there we have it in a nutshell.











So no sacrificing of virgins or pacts with Satan then?

I'm considering training some Chimpanzees as traders, they'd certainly have more success than me.....if only MAF would let me import a couple :D

[Xerof]

I find a combination of Neudof Motuere Chardonnay (any vintage), with a couple of sucks on the ol' ganya does wonders for clarity:D:D

Although sometimes it leads to thinking the sell button is on the right.....

anyway - off to lunch with Mrs Xerof

See y'all tonight - might be some fun in the European/NYK sessions tonight

Xerof

and Dazza, you've obviously done far too many posts on NZX - I see you've beaten me to 'senior member' status[xx(][xx(]

[arco]

Monarch 1 LT system signals 1st July.

GBP.USD.
Its taken a mauling, whereas the other 2 are not
fairing quite so bad.

Obviously with hindsight the ATR on all pairs was
set too tight.
E.G. We would still be in on GBP if the ATR was set
at 2.75. (Entry 8952 ATR 2.75 = 8269 +683)

I was looking for a move higher to get back in after
the uplift, but this might not occur now.

The GBP action may still come back to test the o/n resistance
break so one plan of action would be to start staging
in a few shorts from just below last nights low........
circa 7845.

The main system still indicates the direction in which
we had the original orders. We just have to find the
idea spot to re-enter.

Always teething problems with a new system, but good
to test it in real time for realistic trading.

[Dazza]

heh is that all arco?
n i thought it would me much more high tech heh

[Xerof]

Dazza, there two items you seem to be missing in your portfolio

MAL, and some USD, sorry to mix threads:D:D

regards

Xerof

[arco]

This thread records the trials and tribulations whilst I try to discover the best set of indicators for a new long term trend following system.
The aim - to gain the maximum number of pips over a longer term.

Inevitably rules and indicators need to be changed occasionally to try to improve upon the original starting guidelines.

So IMO trying to re-gig positions after I change the rules is a pointless exercise.

Therefore I have decided to amend the ATR trailing stop figures starting from the original entry signal and then follow the trade with the new refinements.

The real test will be when the system indicates a new LT entry.
Now that will be fun.

[Xerof]

Yes it will Major Arco, and despite your protestations there will be a fair bit of money on it:D:D

No pressure [^][^]

Xerof

[Dazza]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Dazza, there two items you seem to be missing in your portfolio

MAL, and some USD, sorry to mix threads:D:D

regards

Xerof


i know i know!!! MAL MAN!! i had no capital then... if i had i would have jumped in around the thrifty thirties about a month ago!!regarding USD, i have 6800 USD in 2 stocks..... so far im down about 1k in them &gt;&lt;

[Xerof]

Dazza, I was meaning USD as in currency, not as in stocks, in view of the fact you are on the FX thread.

Xerof (happy MALster:D:D)

[arco]

Here's the first chart USD.CHF -
showing our original ATR2 stop
and an ATR2.5 stop.

Using the rule I mentioned back somewhere earlier on this
thread, regarding allowing a small margin on the trailing
stop, this trade would still technically be open.

Entry signalled @ 1920
ATR2 Trailing stop @ 2847 = +927
ATR2.5 Trailing Stop @ 2791 = +871

We can follow this trade daily now to see where they
both eventually exit. Based on results a rule can be
made for CHF to always use ATR 'x'

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/07072005atr2.gif

[Xerof]

Arco, the oscillator on your graph looks like it had a bit of a say in the buy signal. I know you use others for confirmation, but is the Osc you use found in standard chart packages, and what parameter do you use - default?

Xerof

[arco]

Xerof - bag of TRIX - Time period 12/Close.

..... displays the percent rate-of-change of a triple exponentially smoothed moving average of the security's closing price. It is the 1-period percent change of an x-period exponential moving average of an x-period exponential moving average of an x-period exponential moving average of the closing price.

Helpful to have a scientific calculator handy / Metastock :D

[Xerof]

Gotcha....I think

[arco]

Here's the 2nd chart EUR.USD -
showing our original ATR2 stop,
and an ATR2.5 stop.

Using the ATR 2.5 trailing stop means
this trade would still technically be open.

Entry signalled @ 2924

With ATR2.5 Trailing Stop now @ 2144 = +780

We can follow this trade daily now to see if there
is any benefit on the eventually exit. Based on results
a rule can be made for EUR to always use ATR 'x', or
even a combination 50/50 foe example.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/07072005atr.gif

[Xerof]

Excellent - will watch with interest

Why does your ATR2 flatline from two weeks ago - have you stopped updating it?

Xerof

[miner]

Maybe start with ATR2 and when you get to "X" pip profits widen it to ATR2.5???.

So ATR2 covers you a bit if wrong and ATR2.5 lets it run if all going to plan.

Just a thought,well that or I'm talking sh*t again[:0]:D.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Xerof

It flat lines after any EOD bar penitrates the
ATR stop line. However, an intraday spike does
not affect the indicator. (As in the CHF chart).

The ATR 2 could actually be re-started from a new lower
swing high if required, - say for example the high of the 17/6.

This would be yet another way of managing the trade.
i.e. gradually tightening ATR stop if the trade appears
to be nearing its run.

arco

[arco]

Miner

Yes, there are a number of ways to tackle the
situation. Perhaps close 50% of the trade
on ATR2, and the balance on ATR 2.5

Another problem is where do you actually
place the hard stop. If you place it on
the ATR it can get whipsawed out with an I/D
spike. The alternative to that, as I have mentioed
previously, is to give the ATR stop a breathing
space of 'x' pips to allow for this possibility.

arco

[miner]

How many pips would it have taken to give the trade I/D spike breathing space for the ATR stop to still be in it?.

[Xerof]

I remember that day - a Friday where it just squeezed and squeezed all of NYK session, and on the Monday morning it had a large gap on the open, almost a big figure gap

Have to say you were a touch unlucky with that one Arco

[arco]

Miner - ATR2 - 87 pips.......
quite a large amount for a breathing space.

ATR2.5 - 27 pips which could be easily allowed for.

Certainly a hard stop must be placed to cover
incidents such as the 400 pip fall we saw earlier
today on GBP.JPY

[arco]

No changes on ATR today.

USD.CHF
Entry signalled @ 1920
ATR2 Trailing stop @ 2847 = +927
ATR2.5 Trailing Stop @ 2791 = +871

EUR.USD
Entry signalled @ 2924
ATR2.5 Trailing Stop @ 2144 = +780

I hope to post a GBP chart and details later.

[arco]

Heres the GBP chart as promised earlier.

We can see the ATR2 was triggered, whilst the ATR2.5
with a small stop buffer kept LT holders in the trade.

GBP.USD
Entry signalled @ 8952
ATR2.5 Trailing Stop @ 7754 = +1198

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/07082005atr2.gif

[miner]

quote:Originally posted by arco


Miner - ATR2 - 87 pips.......
quite a large amount for a breathing space.

ATR2.5 - 27 pips which could be easily allowed for.

Certainly a hard stop must be placed to cover
incidents such as the 400 pip fall we saw earlier
today on GBP.JPY








Ta Arco so if you switched to the 2.5ATR once trade under way with maybe a 50pip spike breather,hard stop need one for sure,as for last night not allot you can do about that.

So as your letting these trades continue with ATR2.5 have you decided on how many pips your breather is?.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Miner

Perhaps 40+/- would allow a enough buffer
as ATR2.5 gives quite a good space anyway.

There may be some merit in scaling out towards
the finale, or even changing to a tigher SL
regeme.

[miner]

Morning Arco yep try 40+/-,and I would tighten things up stop wise when you think you are getting near the end of the run after widening it in the middle of the run to give it some room as you are playing with profit rather than widening a loss to stay in.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Only one change after Fridays action.

GBP.USD
Entry signalled @ 8952
ATR2.5 Trailing Stop @ 7663 = +1289 pips

Additional info
ATR 2 from 27/6 = 7592.

[slam]

Hi arco

Just wondering if you are still testing this system?
Maybe some new entry points soon hey;)

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Hi Slam

Yes. It's slow going because the system needs to identify
and confirm the longer term trend before entry is indicated.
I intend to give any new signals if they appear.

The previous run ended at the stop loss points
giving some magnificent gains, but we have to wait
to see whether the system can produce such gains
again in the future.

Meanwhile back to the butterflies ;)

arco