MET - a trading opportunity?

[Lizard]

Given the likelihood of a takeover offer at or above $3.72 per share within the next month, doesn't it seem a little strange that the MET share price is languishing at $3.37? Any takeover offer would not have the "90% acceptance" tag either.

In the unlikely event that Private Healthcare does not have a buyer at $3.72, I doubt there would be much downside as strong earnings and dividend growth should occur for at least the next two years. In addition, the shares have generally followed Rymans in earnings and price over the past few years (currently $3.81).

Discl: Hold MET and don't plan to sell at $3.72.

[mentat]

I am also keen to hear what others opinions on this share are, am looking at investing today. thanks

[troyvdh]

Giday,Ive been a holder for yonks and remain so (10000).If you go back and see previous threads general opinion would indicate (tax implications etc + RYM valu) around $4....I mean the mix of
-land
-demograhics
-substantial dosh around
-blah blah
most of these issues aint gonna go away in the med-long term.
TMO only

[mentat]

thanks, what is MET relationship to RYM?

[troyvdh]

Share price/company performance,mkt sentiment towards both...blah blah

[Dough Boy]

Hi Lizard, I too am a substantial holder and plan to remain so until the wave of baby boomers entering retirement homes (another 10 years to go!) starts to subside.

I have been slowly buying up from when they were a $1.90 then dropped to $1.00 then raised up to $2.20.

This company is one of the few NZ companys that is in a market that will provide long-term revenue and profit growth beyond next year's earnings (that is why I guess the Todds bought in).

At $3.40 and a P.E. of 13.9 and long-term projected profit growth of 20%+ this is a quality investment. Only clound is property values and possible downturn (refer to 'The Economist' report this week) however clients wear the loss on a property!

Therefore would prefer no takeover for now as long-term there is more value to be had. Therefore don't see this as a 'trading opportunity'.

Also when the baby boomers move into their retirement homes over the next few years I will be buying my 'coastal perperty' for a discount as they make their final dash for their last place of residence.

P.S. also take a look at private health care and hospitals.

P.S. also a listed funeral directing company in the future will be a nice earner!

[mentat]

definetly funeral directing, it's already quite a profitable business, I don't know too much about the industry whether the businesses are mainly run by individual owners or there is some chain of them. To have a funeral is an expensive cost, got the ceremony, the coffin, plus maybe an expensive tombstone combo could be $10k easy, there must be quite a bit of profit to be made. Anyone know anything about the business? I'd be keen to buy in with our aging population and all...

Also dough boy, what are the private health care and hospital companys? thanks

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by mentat

definetly funeral directing, it's already quite a profitable business, I don't know too much about the industry whether the businesses are mainly run by individual owners or there is some chain of them. To have a funeral is an expensive cost, got the ceremony, the coffin, plus maybe an expensive tombstone combo could be $10k easy, there must be quite a bit of profit to be made. Anyone know anything about the business? I'd be keen to buy in with our aging population and all...

Also dough boy, what are the private health care and hospital companys? thanks

Wakefield (WFD)

[mentat]

right I now have 4000 of these shares, bought 2k @ 3.33 yesterday & 2k @ 3.34 today. Am a bit nervous as thats a lot of money to me, also am not that enthused by the poor liquidity of this stock, hardly any traded lately, any opinions on these shares, whats next for the company? I see that none of the suspected major purchase/sells went through i.e "The right to require Todd to sell such shares has not been exercised. The Pre-Emptive Agreement remains in force" in the announcements. Any discussion appreciated... thanks, from a junior investor.

[Lizard]

mentat,
Check back to the update last week from Cliff Cook. It was pretty clear the time period was going to elapse before negotiations finished with his buyers. I'm not precisely clear, but I think he might have to offer to Todd again (one would suspect at the same price - though it would be a good sign if it was higher!) and go through the one month period again (although possibly Todd would be helpful and respond fairly quickly this time to allow them to tie up the deal). The announcement was pretty positive on tying down a deal with a buyer soon.

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by mentat

right I now have 4000 of these shares, bought 2k @ 3.33 yesterday & 2k @ 3.34 today. Am a bit nervous as thats a lot of money to me, also am not that enthused by the poor liquidity of this stock, hardly any traded lately, any opinions on these shares, whats next for the company? I see that none of the suspected major purchase/sells went through i.e "The right to require Todd to sell such shares has not been exercised. The Pre-Emptive Agreement remains in force" in the announcements. Any discussion appreciated... thanks, from a junior investor.


If this is a 'lot of money 'to you I suggest that next time you are slower to make a such a commitment. Seldom do I buy more than $4500 per trade and space my trades at least a month apart usually at least 3 months and can spend upto 3 years buying a stock. Over a year I may make 40 or more buy orders. Also make far more buy orders than sell as usually companies are takenover.

The stockmarket is more a turtle's race than a hare's race

Are you planning to hold long-term or short-term?

[mentat]

maybe I am being too impatient, but I suppose nothing ventured nothing gained. From the sharemarket I am mainly looking to enter exit shares on a monthly basis looking for short term trends and making profit from capital gains rather than holding longer term and getting a return based on the dividend. With an entry/exit cost of $60 (2 x $30 brokerage) I need to buy a decent no. of shares to make a profit and haave share appreciate several cents. I have typically have been selling with a profit of $200-$400 per trade.
My strategy so far (fairly niave) is to watch decent stocks that may have been hit with a bad announcement, people overreact typically, I buy in and then attempt to sell off once the share has recovered. Maybe I have been lucky but so far I have held SKC bought @ $4.07 sold @ $4.50. Bought AIA $1.87 sold at $2.25. NPX bought at $3.75 sold at $3.95. Fairly new at this game but having a punt, have 18k to play with. I now have MET 3.335 avg and CAH which I bought at $1.81 and waiting for an announcemet on their forestry sale (whenever that happens....).

[KJ]

Mentat-well done -don't be put off by others.You have developed an approach which is working for you.

Everyone has to work out what suits them the best based on their personality and risk profile.

You have decided to be a trader rather than a LT investor.Your method seems to be sensible but I would say that because it is similar to the way that I trade (I also have a LT portfolio)

Generally money is made when you buy rather than sell.Buying into good coys after bad news is a good approach when trading.Good luck.

Don't forget that you are liable for tax on profits as a trader.

Have you read though the trading threads under "Investment Strategies"?-you could find it helpful.

[mentat]

thanks KJ, what are my tax implications, I am keeping a spreadsheet of my buy sell prices, profit etc. So can easily calculate my profit to date. How do I go about paying the tax anyway and when? I'll have a look at the investment strategies section thanks for the tip.

[mentat]

Lizard, what's up with these shares? am thinking of flicking them for a small loss. Have owned them a week, in that time probably less than 20,000 shares have been traded... 0 shares traded today....

Historically has trading always been this light in MET?

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by mentat

Lizard, what's up with these shares? am thinking of flicking them for a small loss. Have owned them a week, in that time probably less than 20,000 shares have been traded... 0 shares traded today....

Historically has trading always been this light in MET?


Yes, pretty tightly held.

Just suggested it as something which could expect a t/o announcement sometime within the month (rather than the week). Also, consider them a safe share if a takeover doesn't eventuate.

[mentat]

cool, thanks

[Oracle]

mentat

I have about a quantity of MET, some bought recently at 3.32. Have had them off & on since they were a dollar. Always illiquid. Tightly held now, as the takeover is almost certain. I cannot see price going below where it is now. Todd have pre-emptive right, so at that level may exercise right, or other potential buyers may think they would. I thought it unlikely to go over the 3.72, but as there is more than one "buyer," perhaps it could. I would not consider selling at this point. For the potential buyer, it is a unique entry to a secure industry, already successful, with good land bank.

[mentat]

thanks, I am just seeing lots of opportunity at the moment to make a few quick dollars but the bulk of my money 4000 * MET @3.33 is tied up. I am thinking of exiting to do better elsewhere for the moment but on the back of the advice from several forum members + recent announcements it seems a takeoffer offer is immenent so its worth holding on for this. Anyone know when this decision has to be made by?

[tinking]

Anyone know where to get a copy of RYM's latest annual report on line?

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by mentat

thanks, I am just seeing lots of opportunity at the moment to make a few quick dollars but the bulk of my money 4000 * MET @3.33 is tied up. I am thinking of exiting to do better elsewhere for the moment but on the back of the advice from several forum members + recent announcements it seems a takeoffer offer is immenent so its worth holding on for this. Anyone know when this decision has to be made by?


No idea and don't care if not taken over this month or in ten years as long-term holder.

[mentat]

Can't handle the no activity on this share, held it about 3 weeks now with nothing happening. I think I am too impatient, but will probably sell these tommorrow for a small loss and get my money into Uranium companies on the ASX, just commodities in general...

Am I being too impatient? just seeing lots of opportunity else where, I should never have committed this much of my portfolio to one company, as it is limiting my ability to invest elsewhere (cos I don't want to sell it for a loss at this SP) oh well lesson learned, I'm new to this :-)

[troyvdh]

Mentat.....sometimes the smartest thing to (to make dosh) is to just do nothing.....particularly if you have faith in something....

[Lizard]

Hi Mentat - sorry this hasn't worked out for you. Everyone finds an investment style that suits them and mine is on a longer timeframe than yours.

Your aggressive trading style has the potential for very high returns, but also very high losses. I would consider it best suited to those with alot of experience or alot of luck... take care and keep learning!

Cheers,

[cool cat]

Met's still a hold for me. With RYM s/p at about $4 there's likely to be limited downward valuation at the moment. Half year results are getting closer and with more development Met's
Asset base operation continues to grow. Still intereting times ahead...;)

[Lizard]

Over 500k shares traded in the past two sessions on rising prices. Someone is grabbing a few.

[mentat]

yeah there is real support for the current share price, it is now starting to head north! Was pleased and glad I held on so long, then damn it realised I had accidently left a sell order on, sold 4k at 3.37 making a whopping profit of $50 after brokerage, peeved off now, oh well you live and learn, I'm sure I cancelled that sell order (am using ASB Securities), will be more vigalent from now on.

[PaulaEd]

definetly funeral directing, it's already quite a profitable business, I don't know too much about the industry whether the businesses are mainly run by individual owners or there is some chain of them. To have a funeral is an expensive cost, got the ceremony, the coffin, plus maybe an expensive tombstone combo could be $10k easy, there must be quite a bit of profit to be made. Anyone know anything about the business? I'd be keen to buy in with our aging population and all...

above from mentat earlier

Well a friend of mine organised a funeral for a relative and the cost was $480. This was made up of cremation fee of $295, made own coffin, joinery, hardware and beer for local joiner to cut everything to correct size, death certificate, medical examiner to sign off for permission to cremate. The deceased died at 0005 and was at crematorium at 1430 on the same day. It is easy to do if you are prepared in advance and have paperwork done. This was a saving of over $3000 on what a funeral home would charge.

[Lizard]

Private Healthcare sale has taken much longer than expected to negotiate for no real price premium. It seems to me that this process may have held back the share price.

I would be surprised if they manage a full takeover at $3.75. Personally, I would not sell below $4 at this point.

[Nimble]

Just trying to work out the likelyhood of a higher offer coming in e.g. above the current $3.75. Or put another way is it worth buying some more at $3.75?

If Todd have already turned down $3.72 then unlikely to accept $3.75. Therefore offer likely to be made to all shareholders at $3.75. Lets say the don't reach 90%. Can they actually lift the offer without having to reoffer to Todd again at new price?

I guess if you think they won't get 90% then its worth buying some hoping they up the offer to reach 90%. If you think they will get 90% then there is nothing to be made.

[Lizard]

Nimble, I think a higher offer is very unlikely when they have the Cook and Todd stake in the bag (provided Todd doesn't take it this time - not totally out of the question). Cheaper to take what they get, (75-85%?) and wait another 12 months for the mop up.

[Paper Tiger]

Given the current climate (including the last few days) and the expectation of a profit of $21.5m this coming year (P/E = 15.24) then $3.75 a share is a give-away for this growth stock. I won't be selling at this price.

[troyvdh]

PT... could'nt have said it any better my self.