TLS Chart

[Phaedrus]

For Enigma, tsb, Andrew and Airedale.
The shareprice tragectory of Telstra has been simple, straightforward, and very clearcut :-

An Uptrend. 2 years.
A Downtrend. 3 years.
A Trading Range. 2 years.........

That was until todays 28 cent drop breached previous support and ended the trading range. Technically, the next support is at $4.32. The green and red arrows mark the trendline break buy and sell signals.

Spare a thought for the poor sods foolish enough to "average down" as TLS fell from over $11 to less than $5. Throwing good money after bad. The moral here? Don't buy in downtrends. Dead simple, eh?

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/TLS95001.gif

[whatsup]

So tell me Phae--- why wasnt the April 03 to Nov 03 "up trend" a buy signal at THAT time, forget after that date say Feb-Mar 04 when it is (now) a obvious a side ways/down trend?

[tsb]

many thanks Phaedrus
I believe they go ex on 26/09/05 - it will be interesting until then and more interesting on the 26th
I was intending to grab some then as it does away with messy tax things although the IRD did allow a tax credit on this years return

[rocket science fiction]

I have never owned TLS but am always intirested by your charts P, you make it sound so simple. i notice you usually post log charts but in this case use a normmal scale. why change now?:D

the story told by both charts is similar, but the buy signal is diffrenet and the log buy signal comes later.
also at the start of 2004 the trading range line would be difrent so in 2005 it would appear like we got a breakout to the upside. which we know was a false breakout only in hindsite. similarly couldnt this downbreak be a falseone and in a few months time we could redraw our trade range.

heres some chart you posted earlier which tells a similar story but sly-gthly diffrent. isnt the detail important?
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WHStls002.gif

[rocket science fiction]

P just found another of your charts where you had a downtrend instiead of the trading range, so maybe its not as dead simple as you'd like us to be-lie-ve aye?
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/TLS001.gif

[Andrew]

The charts look good. But without the benefit of hindsight, how would you know to buy at the low in April 2003, if you didnt have the rest of the chart. Also how would you know to sell in November 2004 without the rest of the chart. Good to look back and see what mistakes have been made , but how do you look forward.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by rocket science fiction

P just found another of your charts where you had a downtrend instiead of the trading range, so maybe its not as dead simple as you'd like us to be-lie-ve aye?


A trading range is comprised of constituent uptrends and downtrends. When that downtrend broke and the subsequent uptrend did not break above $5.80 it entered a trading range.

[Halebop]

Andrew the only way to beneficially report a trend is by putting the data into some form of chart. By it's nature, putting data into a chart is backwards looking because the data must already exist in order for us to put it there.

Fundamental analysts get all tied up in knots about this process but fail to see the irony when they themselves attempt to trend financial data.

Performance, in anything that is measureable, trends. Even if the "trend" is oxymoronically neutral. When a TA looks at a chart they are merely determining the trend based on historical norms and comparing recent price action with that previous experience.

What TA does not do is attempt to predict the future. It looks at the past and allows assumptions about trends. I can't look at a chart and say the price of company X will be $5.00 in 6 months but I could see from the chart that if the price isn't at least $5.00 then the trend has been broken or changed.

Questioning a concept is healthy but I see the same tired arguments trotted out about TA when FA does an even worse job of pricing the market. I personally use a combination of Qualitative and Quantitative FA and also some TA when buying and selling shares. FA is useful for determining value (but not price). TA is useful for timing beneficial entry and exit points. Neither are failsafe. ...and I'm yet to see a system that determines a good price, whatever that means.

To see some TA in action look at the JBH thread in the ASX forum. This is a company whose short term trend has been to go nowhere. I placed question marks on a chart to indicate the data was at a critical point but I didn't know the future. I bought at $3.22 because the chart told me to (and because my Fundamental analysis said the shares were worth twice market). However the historical trend was that the price would bounce off the $3.20 support level and rise again. Today it rose +3.4%, bouncing nicely off the support level that the chart indicated based on backwards looking historical norms. I also think there might be another 10% in it over the next month or two just based on the chart. But the chart doesn't predict the future. It just reports the trend.

[Phaedrus]

" So tell me Phae--- why wasnt the April 03 to Nov 03 "up trend" a buy signal at THAT time?? (Whatsup)
It was. I posted the Buy signal on the day of the trendline break. OK?

"i notice you usually post log charts but in this case use a normmal scale. why change now?" (Rocket Science Fiction)
Because in this instance, a linear price scale gave a trendline with 9 points of contact, versus 3 with a log price scale. Therefore a linear based trendline provided a better representation of average price action and thus gave a slightly earlier signal.

"couldnt this downbreak be a falseone and in a few months time we could redraw our trade range." (RSF)
Certainly it could. Any signal posted in "real time" like this runs the risk of being proved "false" by subsequent price action. I would be surprised if TLS reversed this drop in the near future though. Whatever way you look at it, whatever scale you use, a break below a previous support level is decidedly Bearish. Right?

"heres some chart you posted earlier which tells a similar story but sly-gthly diffrent. isnt the detail important?" (RSF)
Detail can certainly be important sometimes. For example, one detail that seems to have escaped your critical eye is that this is a chart of TLS on the Australian market. This is why it is slightly different. I would have thought you would have noticed the different price range.

"P just found another of your charts where you had a downtrend instiead of the trading range" (RSF again)
For God's sake man, sharpen up! Not only was this a chart of TLS in Aus$, but it was posted before the trading range had even formed!!!!!

" maybe its not as dead simple as you'd like us to be-lie-ve aye?"
RSF, this is kindergarten level TA. The principles involved are pathetically simple. I would have thought that anyone could understand it.

"without the benefit of hindsight, how would you know to buy at the low in April 2003, if you didnt have the rest of the chart.?" (Andrew)
You wouldn't - couldn't - buy at the low. You buy when price action breaks above a confirmed trendline - as marked on the chart with a green arrow.

"How would you know to sell in November 2004 without the rest of the chart. (Andrew)
There was no Sell signal in November 2004. The Sell signal was in October 2003 when the uptrend ended.

"Good to look back and see what mistakes have been made, but how do you look forward."
How do you look forward? You can't really, other than in statistical terms. Andrew, these charts are not prepared with the benefit of hindsight. The trendline that signalled the 2003 "Buy" began in 1999. I have posted many TLS charts featuring this trendline, years before it was finally broken. Here is the actual post I made when the buy signal finally came - in Real-time.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2003/07/msg00045.shtml
Note that this is Aus$. If you look at TLS in NZ prices, you are seeing TLS price action overlaid by the NZ/Aus exchange rate. This tends to distort the picture a little. You can see how the Australian chart is "tidier" than the NZ version. Let's not split hairs though - anyone can see that they are essentially the same, giving buy and sell signals that correspond very closely.

[winner69]

Phaedrus - keep at it mate

Some may be unaware that Phaedrus, Winner and Snoopy and others have had many 'discsussions' about TLS chart over the last 4 years or so, here and on sharechat

If we put all the different posts and charts together one would have a fantastic case study (a classic if there ever was one) as to how a share price can behave over time, albeit a rather sad one from an investment point of view.

Phaedrus has posted pretty promptly on major trendline breaks ... we all should appreciate this.

Whatever TLS is a classical study of price action .. and when you think that billions of dollars can change hand every day it is driven from real market sentiment.

Keep at mate - good stuff - and yes still a good yield stock and has sound fundamnetals but that is a another story isn't it

[Paper Tiger]

The current problem with TLS at the moment is that it is an Australian political football. Just about every aspect of the future of this company is subject to the whims of the nuttiest nutters in the madest mad-house.

[rocket science fiction]

thanks for thi answers P, i didnt mean to be critical just quest-ioning so no need to get hot under the collair.yu create a new th-read so i asume yu want comments/questions and not just praise or an ego boost right?:D
some of us are at kinder-garden (uni) and do learn from stuff that may seem basic to yu, so dont get too patron-icing k?

just so yu know here's what i learned today
-i can use log or linear chart depending on which one confirms the trendline more
-any signal posted in real time could be false later(nice disc-laimer)

thanks

one thing i still dont quite get is (on the nz chart of TLS)
at the end of 2004 you dont yet have a tradeing range but you got a downtrend which is broken up in early 2005 right? and if yu bought then when did the chart tell you to get out?

[BRICKS]

How do the poor SODS know now that are BUYing unlike the poor SODS of the past this game has NO ending,, but doing nothing is NO game at all..[8D]

[tsb]

sorry about leading the WDT post into TLS territory
Thanks ENIGMA (WDT) I also read an article that Sol was not adverse to helping to drag the price down. I guess if they break A$4.00 anything could happen.
I also see them as a good stock to park my NZ dollars in for a time - If National get in and startd borrowing to give it away in tax cuts .......

[Phaedrus]

RSF,
Here is a chart covering the 18 month period you are asking about. Now, ask yourself :-
Is this stock going anywhere?
Is there any worthwhile action?
Do I want to be part of it?
Should I be looking for entry signals?
Lots of trendlines could be drawn all over this chart. Many different chart patterns can be perceived. Multiple support and resistance levels are present. We could wheel in scores of supplementary indicators. All a complete waste of effort. In the absence of a clearly defined trend, trend indicators give a string of contradictory and useless signals.
You are getting overly concerned with the minutiae of TA, worrying too much about exactly where the limits of the consolidation zone (trading range) should be drawn, where to draw trendlines, etc. with a stock that should be of no interest whatsoever at this time.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/TLS97001.gif

[Andrew]

Dont you love that volatility. I have been doing OK from TLS on the NZX. Over the last year, we have had some luck with the exchange rate moving in line with the up and down shareprice. I see that the last chart has the shareprice going up up until December 2005. Wow "Is this from Back to the Future"

I bought back a little soon before the current drop, so am a little behind, I will have to buy some more at the current price to drop my averages.

[Phaedrus]

Andrew, We're never going to see eye to eye buddy. I disagree with nearly everything you say!

"Don't you love that volatility?"
No. Technically, I don't like anything at all about this stock at the moment. Even as a trading range, it is too narrow and too inconsistent to trade effectively. Not that you are doing that.

"I have been doing OK from TLS on the NZX"
Yehbut nobut yehbut - you're behind, right?

"I bought back a little soon before the current drop"
You bought into a stock that had been going nowhere for years in the hope that it might start going up sometime. It didn't, what's worse, it started going down. The moral? Don't buy into trading ranges unless you intend to trade. Buy on the upward breakout when (or if!!!!) it happens.

"....am a little behind so I will have to buy some more at the current price to drop my averages"
Aaaaaaaaaaarrrrrgggghhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! Averaging down!
There is only one thing worse than buying into a stock that is going nowhere. That's buying into a stock that is falling. Don't do it. Buy into stocks that are going up, not down.

I read your last sentence and die a little!

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

How do the poor SODS know now that are BUYing unlike the poor SODS of the past this game has NO ending,, but doing nothing is NO game at all..[8D]


The poor SODS NO better of in the last 18 months too but the SODS should BUY now as its the lowest price and great deal TLS willl GO on too bigger things.. [8D]

[rocket science fiction]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

RSF,
Here is a chart covering the 18 month period you are asking about.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/TLS97001.gif


hey P thats sort of the period I was askeing about but not quite.(yu missed the signal I was talking about in 2005 - funny that):D

between sep 2004 and dec 2005 as you show TLS is in a range as you see it or slight downtrend as I see it(lower highs and lower lows).
either way a close above $5.75 would give you a signal that the range or downtrend was broken.
this signal came in the weeks you failed to show.
i just wondiered why you chose to draw it that way originally
and why you continue to do so is another story
no worries mate:D


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

with a stock that should be of no interest whatsoever at this time.
a bit patronising dont you think?
evryone trading at that time obviosly thought you were wrong:D
anyway no need to reply.
youre like a lecturer
instructional but boring:D

thanks for your time, ignore me in the future:D

[rocket science fiction]

its not rocket science. its science fiction

[Phaedrus]

RSF,
Maybe this is the potential trade that you are referring to :-
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/TLSnz97001.gif
It is not one that I would have taken.
Don't spit the dummy just because we are having trouble understanding each other.

[Andrew]

When I say I am a little behind, I meant on the last purchase. Overall with my trading with TLS looks OK. Otherwise I would not seem so upbeat about buying in further.

I see that Father Howard is disgusted with the management team at Telstra, as well as I am.

Instructions will be given through the board, Make up that shareprice with good earnings or else.

I think that there will be an improvement as a new broom likes to sweep clean. Look at AMP.

It would have been a tough job for the new CEO to make a name for himself with the price high etc. A lot easier now to rescue the company with the price low.


I am no chartist, but even looking at the charts, I would say this stock has a propensity to go up more than go down. (Dividend adjustment excluded)

[Halebop]

I'm not much of a TA either but that chart is just plain ugly and says "stay away".

[Bottom Feeder]

Well, I see a lot of talking, its about time I did the walking. I see this as reaching the bottom. Drop after the dividend, with a recovery, soon thereafter.[^]

Within four months the price will increase by 12%. You heard it here first.[^]

I am starting to accumulate. [8D] Started buying on ASX at $4.25.

I have put the price in for those who want to check my predictions.[:p]

[limegreen]

RSF, I presume you're referring to a "buy" as it breaks above the dashed resistance line? However, looking back a bit further the other way, it'd be just as easy to draw an (uncrossed) resistance/support line a little higher, which is still unbroken.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/tls7sept05.gif

Had someone bought at a perceived break through $5.75, they would likely have been somewhat alarmed when it didn't provide support, would have been further alarmed when the second and third top formed, the line below the triple top broke, and so very likely would have termed that a failed investment/trade. Even a crude trailing stop (5, 10% etc.) would have given a kick out.

And an investor, who was looking to buy and hold over the longer term would doubtless be looking for something a little more positive than just a break through $5.75. My broker's been pimping Telstra, but its not even on the radar at the moment.

[Andrew]

Just how can you chart TLS on the NZX. As I said before you have to factor in the exchange rate, which seems to have followed the highs and lows to our favour. So all charts would have to be bsaed on the ASX.

I see Phaedrus uses the ASX.

My apologies if you use the ASX. Its just that 5.75 seems to be so out there that I assumed it was the NZX.

State exchange on charts please

[KW]

well there are analyst's reports being issued that have $2.90 as the bottom. A lot of the negative press at the moment is smoke and mirrors - a last ditch chance to change the playing field before the new legislation and regulation comes into effect. However, there is no doubt that the traditional revenues are in a decline and falling faster (management are telling the truth for a change, unlike previous management). If you buy TLS now you are gambling that new management can grow alternative revenues faster than they are losing the old. I personally wouldn't like to take that bet right now. Even mobile revenue is being slaughtered by the new Vodafone and Hutchison price plans ($29 a month flat rate), so there isnt much room for new revenue growth.
Management has already canned the share buyback and warned that dividends will not be sustained at current levels (they have been borrowing to fund them).
I'd stick with TNZ - no regulation, a cosy duopoly in the mobile market, no serious competition, and lots of free cash to fund their dividend.

[Halebop]

5 Year Weekly Chart (A$/ASX)...

http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/5750/telimage1yi.png

6 Month Daily Chart (A$/ASX)...

http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/5664/telimage21ad.png

There is nothing much going for the 5 year chart. The only thing going for the 6 Month Chart is the very weak RSI. That gappy drop and low RSI indicates TLS might be oversold on a very short time frame. Historically though RSI hasn't been a very profitable indicator for TLS, offering a few 10s of cents on extreme weakness.

I can think of easier ways to make money. Like a bank deposit.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by Andrew

Just how can you chart TLS on the NZX.
Because RSF's question specifically related to the value of the NZX shareprice. Further, if I was to own TLS.NZ (I don't for obvious reasons), ultimately the value of my shares is what I can sell them for on the nzx. Prices on the nzx are dictated by supply and demand here; they are not directly linked to the asx price (although obviously if there is a strong discrepancy, you might choose to buy them on the other exchange). Therefore, apart from the specificity of this chart (relating to RSF's question), charting the price on the NZX is a valid activity.

I use a variety of free charting sources (some of which by default include the exchange & symbol). I apologise for any ambiguity.

[Halebop]

No need to apologise Limegreen. The TLS question was raised on the NZX forum to begin with. Whatever currency doesn't change the fact the share price has gone nowhere for 5 years.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

No need to apologise Limegreen. The TLS question was raised on the NZX forum to begin with. Whatever currency doesn't change the fact the share price has gone nowhere for 5 years.


Nowhere?

A 5yr yahoo chart omparison says -20% plus on ASX and -40%odd on NZX

[rocket science fiction]

thanks limegreen et al, as i said before ive never owned TLS, and i was just intrested in the chart and P took it the wrong way. theres a lot of difrent opinions out there and a lot of difrent pictures can be painted although its all the same company in oz and nz.
not evryone's an expert TA or even a TA. i was reading today that in the long term its fun-da-mentals that drive the shareprice, but theres a lot of market forces and emotions and some people dont wanna be wrong and average down and others dont wanna be wrong so say evryone else is. im sure that some people have made money from TLS since 2000 and not all of you are losers.:D
for starters some are trend traders and others are range traders.
anyways halebops chart makes it look like it could be a trading range started in jun 2001, roughly between $5.60 and $4.00 and 4 is a nice round number rhymeing with floor.:D

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Halebop

No need to apologise Limegreen. The TLS question was raised on the NZX forum to begin with. Whatever currency doesn't change the fact the share price has gone nowhere for 5 years.


Nowhere?

A 5yr yahoo chart omparison says -20% plus on ASX and -40%odd on NZX


Nowhere... good.

[BRICKS]

TLS is the game today,, so who going to BUY and save the AUS. PM..[8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

TLS is the game today,, so who going to BUY and save the AUS. PM..[8D]


TLS is in free fall today low $A3.99,, like AIR when to BUY..[8D]

[Halebop]

A lot easier to just have patience and wait 'til it starts rising.

[Bottom Feeder]

Just an update. My prediction is working its way through. I had been accumulating at $4.25 AUD going down to a lot at $4.00. After the dividend 20cent AUD, the price is nearly back where it was.

Looking good to get back to $4.78 within six months. With dividend will give a return of at least 17 % pa for the six month period.

[rmbbrave]

Telstra sale plans shaky as fixed-line customers hang up

13.10.05
By Fergus Maguire


Duncan Longmore, a property consultant in Australia's Gold Coast resort area, is one of 390,000 Telstra customers who have disconnected their fixed-line phone service in the past year.

"It was pointless to pay for a home phone I didn't need," said Longmore, 30, who matches real-estate agents with home buyers in the region, a 70km beachfront stretch on the country's east coast.

He is saving A$350 ($380) a month after cutting off his land line and using his Hutchison Telecommunications Australia mobile subscription instead.

He is just an example of how customer defections and growing competition are causing a "meltdown" in Telstra's A$7.7 billion fixed-line phone unit, the biggest part of Australia's No 1 phone company, and may cut overall earnings by 10 per cent this year.

And that decline may threaten the Government's plans to raise A$33.8 billion selling its 51.8 per cent stake in Melbourne-based Telstra next year.

"It's going to be a pretty hard task to sell when the future of the most profitable part of Telstra is so uncertain and risky," says Craig Young, of Tyndall Investment Management in Sydney.

Telstra shares have dropped almost 20 per cent since American Sol Trujillo became chief executive officer on July 1 - below the Government's A$5.25 target price for the sale. The shares closed at A$4.14 yesterday.

Trujillo raised Government hackles when he told ministers in August that the fixed-line unit, which generated more than a third of Telstra's A$22.2 billion in sales last year, was headed for a "meltdown". And those ominous comments were followed by more from chief financial officer John Stanhope who said last month that fixed-line sales may fall as much as 6.8 per cent this business year, following a 3.4 per cent decline to A$7.7 billion the previous year. Last year's sales decline was the unit's first.

Finance Minister Nick Minchin declined to comment on how Telstra's falling fixed-line sales might affect the Government's share-sale plan, which was approved by Parliament on September 15.

Minchin has said the "ideal" time for the sale would be October or November 2006 but the Government would make a final decision on the format and timing early next year, conditional on achieving an "appropriate return for taxpayers".

The Government plans to appoint investment banks to advise on the sale by the end of this year. The share sale would be the world's second-biggest after Nippon Telegraph & Telephone's 1987 offering, should the Government sell its stake in a single offer.

Telstra's network of copper wire and optic fibre linking 8.6 million homes and businesses has helped it maintain 65 per cent of Australia's A$35 billion telecommunications market, with a 72 per cent share of fixed-line subscriptions.

That advantage is starting to crumble as regulators force Telstra to give rivals cheaper access to its network and competitors such as Hutchison, Vodafone and Singapore Telecommunications introduce wireless and high-speed internet services.

Mobile-phone carriers offering cheaper plans with capped rates are luring Telstra's fixed-line customers. Telstra has lost 1.02 million retail fixed-line customers in the past three years, leaving it with 8.05 million lines as of June 30.

Hutchison, controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, and British-based Vodafone, the world's largest mobile-phone company, offer customers as much as A$230 worth of calls for a maximum A$49 a month.

Telstra's mobile unit, Australia's biggest with a 45 per cent market share, doesn't offer rates that low.

Investment adviser Charlie Lanchester, at Perpetual Investments, said growth at Telstra Mobile, whose sales rose 8.3 per cent last year, could not compensate for falling sales at the fixed-line unit.

"Mobile-phone prices are only going one direction and that's down," he said.

"Telstra faces a lot more competition in the wireless market, so the margins are nowhere near as impress

[Phaedrus]

Chart update. I have posted both NZ and Aus versions in an attempt to avoid the confusion that has dogged this thread in the past. No big deal though - the two are essentially the same, right?

The green and red arrows mark trendline break buy and sell signals. The magenta arrows mark the technical beginning of the current weakness.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/TLSx21013001.gif

[winner69]

Phaedrus - you still out I take it

at least the AX chart gave the followers some hope a while ago

Fascinating action over many years is shown on these charts ... and for those who have followed the discussion over those years

Good stuff mate

[Phaedrus]

W69, I bought on the break of the long downtrend, but have been out for some time now. In any case, you don't really think I would have ignored those magenta arrows do you?!!!