Imminent Oil/Gas Drilling – Significant Opportunit

[Mensa]

There are several oil/gas wildcat wells scheduled to be drilled over the coming 3 to 4 months, the results of which could produce several company making opportunities if successful, and provide significant gains prior to the results being known for those who prefer less downside risk in the event of failure.

These NZ/OZ wildcat wells are significant high-risk/high-reward speculative ventures, so care should be taken if you decide to have a flutter. In the context of speculative energy sector trading, the following companies offer some of the best short-term profit making opportunities at the moment.

I will update this board (NZX and ASX only) from time to time if people are interested, and I’d appreciate your comments.

The following is based on Friday 23rd Sept closing prices and all are ASX stocks. I have listed the well name, drilling date, mean size, listed stock codes, and best bets in order of potential preference with their associated mean share price percentage gains if successful.

1) Gilbert-1, Sep/Oct, 56mbo, Stocks: MOG, GOP, EBR, LKO
Best Bets: GOPO (options), GOP, MOGOA (options), MOG
Mean Gains: 8000%, 3500%, 1700%, 700%

2) Maclean-1, Sep/Oct, 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGOA (options), MOG, BAS, EBR
Mean Gains: 8800%, 3500%, 1900%, 800%

The above two wells are running back to back – Gilbert first then Maclean.

3) Eagle-2. Oct/Nov, 42mbo, Stocks: FAR, SUR, LKO, VPE
Best Bets: FAR, SUR.
Mean Gains: 270%, 250%

4) Magnolia, Oct/Nov, 60mbo, Stocks: ADI, NWE, AWE, BUY
Best Bets: NWE, BUY, ADI
Mean Gains: 500%, 500%, 450%,

5) Sugarloaf, Late’05 Early’06, 100mbo, Stocks: ADI, AUT.
Best Bets: ADI, AUT
Mean Gains: 600%, 400%

6) Jacala, Jan’06, 1000mbo, Stocks: TAP, ROC, BHP
Best Bets: TAP, ROC
Mean Gains: 800%, 600%

Happy speculative trading.

Mensa.

[Mensa]

I should add a further comment to my previous post.

In trying to punt on a wildcat well, there are a whole lot of factors to consider, but at the end of the day, the market “excitement momentum” will dictate. Stocks involved in the volatile oil/gas exploration sector will often swing wildly from overvalue to undervalue in short notice.

I’ve just tried to provide a reasonably conservative middle of the road estimate of possibilities, using several variables, for speculative trading purposes. It’s possible to come out with lower gains and considerably higher gains based on $A Oil, P10 to P90 oil/gas values, effective share dilution during the short-term drilling period, premiums already built into the SP, and so on.

There are other factors involved which further complicate projections, such as broker valuations, company announcements, and other stock ongoing drilling programs/results in the interim. These will effect the day to day SP fluctuations, but if a successful strike occurs, they will pall into insignificance in comparison.

Most people will probably do their own research and adjustments, but at least they can get an initial appreciation for the near-term significant gain wildcat wells soon to be drilled, and take it from there.

Mensa.

[absolut-advance]

Thanx Mensa very interesting postings.

[Mensa]

I have updated my original posting to cover full dilution of GOP, MOG, and EBR, plus some small upwards adjustments for free carried stocks (MOG, LKO in Gilbert and NWE in Magnolia) including very minor upward adjustments for quality growing/upcoming stocks (ADI, AWE, FAR, NWE) relative to their well peers.

The new values still reflect Friday 23rd closing prices and I will update the values if and when significant SP changes take place. Later I will add further projections for TAP to include Marley-1 (1.5 TCF) and Barque plus Jaguar (North Sea) for EXR.

Although the following figures (based on a successful strike) are projected mean averages, the stocks still remain high-risk high-reward speculative punts as far as the wildcat wells go, but the values should help you assess the stocks relative to their peers and other wells.

1) Gilbert-1, Sep/Oct, 56mbo, Stocks: MOG, GOP, EBR, LKO
Best Bets: GOPO (options), GOP, MOGOA (options)
Mean Gains%: 5400, 2300, 600

2) Maclean-1, Sep/Oct, 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGOA (options), BAS, MOG, EBROA (options)
Mean Gains%: 3000, 1900, 1200, 1000

The above two wells are running back to back – Gilbert first then Maclean. Both LKO and MOG are free carried in Gilbert.

3) Eagle-2. Oct/Nov, 42mbo, Stocks: FAR, SUR, LKO, VPE
Best Bets: FAR, SUR.
Mean Gains%: 260, 240

4) Magnolia, Oct/Nov, 60mbo, Stocks: ADI, NWE, AWE, BUY
Best Bets: NWE, BUY, ADI
Mean Gains%: 500, 500, 400

5) Sugarloaf, Late’05 Early’06, 100mbo, Stocks: ADI, AUT.
Best Bets: ADI, AUT
Mean Gains%: 600, 400

6) Jacala, Jan’06, 1000mbo, Stocks: TAP, ROC, BHP
Best Bets: TAP, ROC
Mean Gains%: 800, 550

Good luck,

Mensa.

[Mensa]

Gilbert-1 well expected to start drilling October week-1. Extracts from GOP’s announcement yesterday.

“Gippsland Offshore Petroleum Limited is pleased to announce that drilling of the Gilbert-1 well in the Vic-P-47 Gilbert Block is scheduled to commence early October, 2005. Notification has been received this morning that the Ocean Patriot rig is expected to be released to the Gilbert JV 30 September.

The rig is expected to be on site for approximately 11 days drilling to a total depth of 910m to test both the Gurnard and Strzlecki reservoir potential

The Gilbert Prospect is a structurally controlled trap with reservoir potential in the Gurnard and the underlying Strzlecki. The prospect is fault-sealed up dip by the Lake Wellington fault system and top sealed by the Lakes Entrance formation. Displacement of oil from accumulations downdip of Gilbert by later gas charging is known to have likely occurred in the region.

The Gilbert structure is on the migration pathway of displaced oil from the Tuna, Kipper and Patricia-Baleen fields which all measured a residual oil column. It is these displaced oils that will be charging the Gilbert Prospect.

A Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to estimate the range of possible reserves should oil or gas be present in the structure. The possible oil-in-place ranges from 59MMbbl (90% confidence) to 198MMbbl (10% confidence) with a median of 141MMbbl.”

Best bets still GOPO, GOP, MOGOA, LKO
Note: Both MOG and LKO are free carried.

Mensa.

[Mensa]

Update for Gilbert-1 and Maclean-1 based on yesterdays closing prices and a successful strike as per mean averages etc.

1) Gilbert-1, Oct week-1, 56mbo, Stocks: MOG, GOP, EBR, LKO
Best Bets: GOPO (options), GOP, MOGO (options)
Mean Gains%: 4500, 2000, 1300

2) Maclean-1, Oct, 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGO (options), MOGOA (options), EBROA (options), BAS
Mean Gains%: 7000, 3000, 1900, 1700

Happy punting,
Mensa.

[Mensa]

Correction to my previous post for Maclean-1. EBROA (options) should read EBRO (options) 1900%.

Mensa.

[Mensa]

Updated “Best Bets” for near-term significant (potential company makers) oil/gas wildcat exploration drilling. The results include full dilution for options where appropriate, plus small adjustments for free carried stocks (MOG, LKO in Gilbert and NWE in Magnolia) including adjustments for quality growing/upcoming stocks (ADI, AWE, FAR, NWE) relative to their well peers. These adjustments are relatively insignificant compared to the projected gains for a successful strike, but assist with peer selection for any given well when the projected gains are close.

The new values reflect Friday 30 Sept closing prices, and include the well name, latest drilling date, oil/gas mboe mean size, listed stock codes, and best bets in order of potential preference with their associated mean share price percentage gains if a strike is successful.

These wildcat wells are significant high-risk/high-reward speculative ventures, so care should be taken if you decide to have a flutter. In the context of speculative energy sector trading, the following companies offer some of the best short-term profit making opportunities at the moment.

1) Gilbert-1, Oct wk-1/2, 56mbo, Stocks: MOG, GOP, EBR, LKO
Best Bets: GOPO (opts), GOP, MOGO (opts), MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts)
Mean Gains%: 4500, 2200, 1200, 500, 500

2) Maclean-1, Oct Wk-3/4, 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGO (opts) MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts), BAS, MOG
Mean Gains%: 6500, 2700, 2100, 1700, 1400

The above two wells are running back to back – Gilbert first then Maclean. Both LKO and MOG are free carried in Gilbert. Currently BAS is in a capital raising trading halt so further dilution will most likely occur, which will reduce the potential gains. It should be noted that both MOGO and EBRO convert to (1 MOG + 1 MOGOA) and (1 EBR + 1 EBROA) respectively, hence the greater leverage gains for MOGO/EBRO over MOGOA/EBROA. This seems to have been overlooked by the market at present.

3) Eagle-2. Nov, 42mbo, Stocks: FAR, SUR, LKO, VPE
Best Bets: SUR, FAR,VPE, LKO.
Mean Gains%: 220, 210, 190, 160

Note: Eagle-2 could be considered more of an appraisal well, rather than a wildcat.

4) Magnolia, Nov, 60mbo, Stocks: ADI, NWE, AWE, BUY
Best Bets: BUY, NWE, ADI
Mean Gains%: 480, 470, 460

5) Sugarloaf, Late’05 Early’06, 100mbo, Stocks: ADI, AUT.
Best Bets: ADI, AUT
Mean Gains%: 650, 430

6) Jacala, Jan’06, 1000mbo, Stocks: TAP, ROC, BHP
Best Bets: TAP, ROC
Mean Gains%: 760, 530

Good luck and happy punting,
Mensa.

[Mensa]

1) Gilbert-1 Drilling Ahead
Updated “Best Bets” for Gilbert-1 based on yesterday’s closing prices.

Mean 56mbo, Stocks: MOG, GOP, EBR, LKO
Best Bets: GOPO (opts), GOP, MOGO (opts)
Mean Gains%: 5300, 2500, 1500
Best Value: GOPO (options)

2) Maclean-1 next after Gilbert-1
Updated “Best Bets” for a successful Maclean-1 strike based on yesterday’s closing prices.

Drilling Oct Wk-3/4, Mean 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGO (opts) MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts), BAS, MOG
Mean Gains%: 7500, 3500, 2200, 1700, 1600
Best Value: MOGO (options)

Good luck and happy punting,
Mensa.

[Mensa]

Best Bets for Maclean-1

Updated “Best Bets” for a successful Maclean-1 strike based on yesterday’s closing prices.

Drilling Oct Wk-3/4, Mean 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGO (opts) MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts), BAS, MOG
Mean Gains%: 7500, 5100, 2000, 1800, 1700
Best Value: MOGO (options)

Note: If Gilbert-1A (currently drilling) is a duster, then all of the above SP’s will probably fall in the initial sell-off, although BAS shouldn’t as it has no interest in Gilbert-1A, and MOG is free carried 10% so any fall should be minimised, but the market will probably react otherwise. Any over-reaction negative dips on a duster will lead to good buying for a punt on Maclean-1.

Good luck and happy punting,
Mensa.

[Mensa]

Best Bets for Maclean-1

Updated “Best Bets” for a successful Maclean-1 strike based on yesterday’s closing prices.

Drilling this weekend or early next week, Mean 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR
Best Bets: MOGO (opts) MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts), BAS, MOG
Mean Gains%: 9500, 5000, 3000, 2000, 1700
Best Value: MOGO (options)

Good luck and happy punting,
Mensa.

[Packersoldkidney]

D Day tomorrow Mensa.

I have a small wager on MOG. There was a good buying op today in MOGO, but Maclean has enough of my hard earned at the moment.

Back to 10 cents on open, or.....?

[Packersoldkidney]

Batta bing, batta boom. MOG just got the broom.

BAS can't buy a trick.

I'm out with a substantial loss on my initial outlay. Fortunately my inital outlay wasn't all that much.

Another giddy up for those with the 'buy early and sell before spud' crew.