Benitec - BLT

[Jollyrodger]

Gee whizz folks. I reckon this one could be the next SBM. Pressing upwards at the moment on ever increasing volumes.

Some of the similarities to SBM include good fundamental assets in
its IP as with SBM's gold fields, long downward trend being broken
by a bottoming out and range bound trading for a long time currently threatening break out. Series of legal and partner spats resolved. A capital restructuring. And in September interest from un-named outside parties.

The cap restructure was made with an option attached exercisable
@32c in 08. It was a non-renounceable rights issue which means no
secondary market available for those who didn't want to take it up.
Which suggests to me the underwriter, in co-operation with the
directors as sub-underwriters, wanted in with leverage out to 08.
This is where the little guy gets stuffed over by the big guy. The big guy in this case was Citibank associated. [:0]

The IP infringment litigation was resolved, according to them successfully. Financial details are suppressed but I believe their patent was upheld which means licensing fees etc from those using the IP. In other words an up tick in revenue with no exclusive arrangements to the opposing party. Meaning potentially more revenue from other licensee's in the future. I think this is being challenged at the moment which means it must be valuable if the licensee wants exclusivity.

Further, looking forward they expect to have two trials go to phase
1 next year. One for HIV and the other for Hep C. Monte Carlo
valuation should raise the inherent value along with increased
licensing fees as these do. However they also raise the cost base.

Market cap is nearly $23m @15c. Most of that is cash value.

[ananda77]

Looks like you're right. BLT trading at the 2001 price level and from a technical point of view has good changes to go into an uptrend.

Williams%R150 gave a strong Buy-Signal accompanied with good volumes. The last Buy-signal of that order happened back in August 2002 resulting in a strong uptrend with a High of value-134

DMI40 bullish with DI+ above DI-. However, ADX just bottoming out from a loooong downtrend and has not given a buy-signal just yet.

Currently long in BLT.

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Jolly:

blt(asx): rising wedge = continuation signal of down-trend...sold out with a small loss on this one...too much "holding space" needed for my liking.

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/blt1.gif</center>

[tracker]

um nice

tracker

[slam]

Good pickup Jolly;)
Cheers
Slam

[cloggs]

what do these guys actually do?

[Doc]

You would have to be an idiot to throw money at this outfit. Any investor or company willing to throw money their way to bail them out will lose out big time. Never made a cent, and never will. They have no product. RNAi is old news, multiple companys and institutions claim the same patents (with much deeper pockets) and the research can be duplicated. RIP Benitec.

[Lizard]

Maybe time to pull Benitec thread back out of oblivion.

Some very positive recent developments on the IP and Graham '099 patent. Key IP in the RNAi field - and seems this field has finally started to emerge into commercial arena, so there's potential for a royalty goldmine.

Still a high risk punt - minimal capital could still see the valuable IP diluted or played to the vultures.

(Enumerate, are you still holding the BLTO?)

[STRAT]

Hi Liz. Are you on this? Nice rise but it looks like it might be done.

[Lizard]

Hi Liz. Are you on this? Nice rise but it looks like it might be done.

Hi Strat, No, I don't hold. Have too many spec punts to be playing with at the moment. However, I think it could be an interesting one to follow - hard to put a number on the value though.

[Enumerate]

Enumerate, are you still holding the BLTO?

Yes ... have been buying head shares since the appeal success.

I am also buying Phylogica (PYC) - the PYCO are an exceptional buy at the moment.

[Lizard]

Thanks Enumerate. I'd rate your understanding of IP as being best on this forum, so appreciate your opinion. Rating it as a BUY is good :).

That just leaves the guess work as to how much they will be bullied into giving away in exchange for access to funding... management team has a bit of an AAH flavour and I never felt that deal with Cephalon was made in the best interests of shareholders, but that probably had more to do with those behind Evogenix.

[Enumerate]

RNAi is a bit out of fashion with Big Pharma, at the moment. We are at the nadir ... the zenith being the sale of Sirna for $1.1billion.

However, the CSIRO IP has been confirmed in spectacular fashion - BLT has human rights to all of this.

The big downside is the La Jolla convertible note deal. Without positive news flow - these conversions will slowly erode the shareprice.

However, on balance, it is worth having a stake (there is more patent news upside; there is therapeutic upside). Look for transaction when the USPTO dots all the 'i's' and crosses the 't's'.

[Lizard]

Hi Enumerate,

I see BLT off on a run on the back of some pretty good results from early studies by others using ddRNAI based technology. Both Hep C and Cancer treatments. La Jolla Cove out the way for now too.

With any commercialisation still a long way off, it is hard to say whether there is value here - they need a source of cash to keep going and to give them some grunt in negotiating licensing deals. Seem likely to sink back into the doldrums again for another year unless there is takeover activity or an early license.

12% of shares traded today and 10% yesterday.

[Lizard]

Might be the start of the break-out from recent consolidation and possibly will look for confirmation of new uptrend this morning. Been a bit more volume and interest since recent announcements.