Major von Tempsky
31-12-2005, 10:44 AM
Now is the time of the year when "professional" Fund Managers have a surge of blood to the head and make rash predictions about the coming calendar year. The media fawn on them as "experts" and report their lofty utterances even though their record is abysmal and they don't use Warren Buffett principles.
I find them useful in planning my investment activity for the next year as NZ financial history shows they are nearly always substantially wrong. I collect these predictions and muse upon them - given that they are probably 95% wrong, which direction are they wrong in and how shall I direct my investments to take advantage of this...
Its a technique that's done very well for me.
This year (2005) they came rather closer than usual with a consensus that the NZX would be up only in single digits.
The investment manager for AMP, whatever the exact title these days is, has played a starring role in the past with such famous boo boos as predicting a great future for the TEL shareprice just after the dot.com bubble popped and as TEL was clearly on its way down at about $8.50. As a result there has been a relatively rapid turnover of AMP investment managers altho I think the present one is a bit more cautious.
So this is an appeal to sharetraders chancing upon Fund Manager predictions for 2006 to kindly post them here as an inverse aid for 2006 investment planning. Are there any available yet? Or are we still waiting for the seasonal (I spose its a bit early still)rush of blood to the head fuelled by equal measures of wine, egotism, media attention and maybe funny baccy....
I find them useful in planning my investment activity for the next year as NZ financial history shows they are nearly always substantially wrong. I collect these predictions and muse upon them - given that they are probably 95% wrong, which direction are they wrong in and how shall I direct my investments to take advantage of this...
Its a technique that's done very well for me.
This year (2005) they came rather closer than usual with a consensus that the NZX would be up only in single digits.
The investment manager for AMP, whatever the exact title these days is, has played a starring role in the past with such famous boo boos as predicting a great future for the TEL shareprice just after the dot.com bubble popped and as TEL was clearly on its way down at about $8.50. As a result there has been a relatively rapid turnover of AMP investment managers altho I think the present one is a bit more cautious.
So this is an appeal to sharetraders chancing upon Fund Manager predictions for 2006 to kindly post them here as an inverse aid for 2006 investment planning. Are there any available yet? Or are we still waiting for the seasonal (I spose its a bit early still)rush of blood to the head fuelled by equal measures of wine, egotism, media attention and maybe funny baccy....