Candles for CAV

[kittydashwood]

Spooky patterns here lately. Can't identify it exactly but all are Bearish.

5.06 for a shorterm high?

[Lawso]

Under 500 today. Surely a great buying opp, despite all the talk about economic slowdown,
housing slowdown, immigration slowdown. It's not putting me off buying more of both CAV and FBU.

Only recent news I've seen is that Tony T retires as chairman, the current CEO moves up to chairman and the CFO becomes CEO.
No reason that I can see to be bearish. The top team is basically still intact.

[nelehdine]

Agree Lawso ... good buying below $5, also like STU in the 370's

Disc: Hold CAV & STU

[clearasmud]

I bought HBY over this co as HBY is cheaper on PE and has better divi
although CAV has now come down to a more realistic price.
I'll be keen at $4.50 ha ha.

[kittydashwood]

Another sign for CAV?

WRI
17/03/2004
GENERAL

REL: 1636 HRS Wrightson Limited

GENERAL: WRI: WRI Confirms Discussions Over Wool Handling and Warehousing

Wrightson Limited confirms that, as reported in today's Otago Daily Times, it
is in discussions with Pyne Gould Guinness in relation to a possible
amalgamation of the two companies wool store operations.

At this point Wrightson has nothing to announce to the market.
End CA:00098233 For:WRI Type:GENERAL Time:2004-03-17:16:36:19

[Lawso]

Waiting for CAV to fall to 450 eh, c.a.m? Methinks you'll have a long wait.

[kittydashwood]

Support at 4.95? Support at 4.75?....

180 day MVA says buy at $4.44.

Maybe somebody technically gifted could post a chart?.
CAV are a great company, but will the Feltex ipo affect investor confidence? I mean this sector is CAV's backyard.

[Phaedrus]

Kitty,
CAV is certainly looking weaker at the moment. It is at a minor support level, but the support at $4.40 looks a bit more substantial to me.
For all that, price action is still above the 4 year trendline. I have held this stock for years and am reluctant to accept that the ride may be over, but I am going to be a good boy and keep to my plan regardless.
I will be selling a quarter of my holding when/as each of the 4 charted indicators give a crossover signal. These 4 very conservative systems have given CAV adequate breathing room such that I have not been flicked out of the uptrend by any (relatively) minor price fluctuations on the way.
One can't help but notice just how well the RSI(14) buy signals have been working for this stock. Of course, in an uptrend, all oscillator buy signals will be good except for the last one. Maybe, just maybe, that latest black arrow was it. Certainly it is the first RSI buy signal in 4 years to be followed by a drop in price.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/CAV001.gif

[kittydashwood]

Many Thanks Phaedrus.

The price of CAV always seems to drift downwards at this time of year. On pretty small volumes too. Maybe it has something to do with the divdend fleecing mob.

Long term trend seems to have been confirmed this week.

[Lawso]

A very interesting interview on ShareChat (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news) today with Wayne Chung, md since about a month ago of CAV. (He's been in the industry around 30 years, since the UEB Bremworth days). He's obviously responding to the slump in share price, from $5.70 in November to around $4.75 today. He attributes the fall mainly to the Feltex IPO, RBNZ interest rate hikes and an anticipated slowdown in housing.

He doesn't think CAV will be "all that much affected" if the housing boom slows as (like FBU) a lot of business comes from refurbishment. He expects commercial demand to be "robust", adding that CAV's Aust carpet tile business, which is mainly commercial, is very busy. Also CAV has benefited from the higher NZ$ as its imports are in US$ and the kiwi-aussie cross has not been too volatile.

Chung reaffirms an earlier forecast of a 10% rise in npat to $20m for 2003-04. "We'll deliver those results for sure."

"The direction of the company has not changed" since Alan James' retirement. "We have a proven record and will continue to produce great results."

[u]Comment</u>. CAV @ around 475 is a BUY, IMnsHO. Nelehdine, I was shocked to learn that you of all people had sold out of CAV. Time to buy back in, I reckon.

[nelehdine]

Hi Lawso, yep it was a hard decision selling out at $5. CAV gave me a great ride for 18mths but I needed to raise some capital ($250k) to buy a 10% stake in a 50 acre vineyard here in Marlborough. Have no cash to buy back in at present but hoping shareprice tracks sideways for a few months as CAV will be high on the shopping list when I have some spare cash later in the year.

[Lawso]

Good luck with the grapes, Neleh.

[nelehdine]

Cheers Lawso ... the amount of hot-air that this site generates I might call on you all during frost season !!!

[kittydashwood]

Wayne Chung's comments have nudged the 30 day MVA but there still appears to be no end of sellers cashing in profits under $5.00

Interesting to see if the 4.70 support holds this time.

Maybe my wait for 4.50 is not in vain Lawso.
Whatever the outcome I'm sure come september some will be regretting their sales.

[kittydashwood]

Anyone notice the large volume go through this week.
From the look of the support CAV is embarking on a new uptrend. Looking for 4.90 close to confirm, anybody know anything?

Looking to get back on board but hoping to time entry right.

[KJ]

I don't know if there is anything to know-One of the better stocks and expecting NPAT to be 10-12% ahead of last yr.
IMO currently good buying.

Hold CAV

[Lawso]

CAV back to five bucks today!

Still waiting to buy @ 450, clearasmud? ;)

[kittydashwood]

Very big volume a while back, CAV looks to be back on the uptrend.If it can beat 5.06 that should be confirmed.

Seemed like a overhang emerged after Timpson retired, (and nelehdine sold out) although Mister T bought some more the first time the SP it hit 4.75. (Did the nelster?) I imagine despite the high AUS/NZ cross rate the CAV results will be at the tasty end of very yummy.

[kittydashwood]

Couldn't help but notice 5.06 target was reached. Depth filling up nicely at 4.90. This week could be the last chance to top up at 5$ before the dividend march.
Seems most analysts have forgotten this company as current research on asb and access sites is woefully out of date.

Disc.Topped up at 4.75 & 5

[Lawso]

Well done, Kitty. Remember that back in May CEO Wayne Chung confirmed an earlier forecast of a 10% rise in npat to $20m for 2003-04. June year result will no doubt be out in August and I'm picking another lift in the final div - last year 13cps, paid in October.
Interesting that you say CAV has dropped off analysts' radar. Bl++dy hopeless! They'll wake up again as the sp keeps inching up.
Still waiting for 450, clearasmud!

[kittydashwood]

I think your right about the dividend lift Lawso, maybe another couple of cents for the final. Amazing if they can pull off projected npat gains with the Aussie NZ cross rate so high.Should the Kiwi dollar retreat back to the low .80s CAV is set to be significantly undervalued.[|)]

[KJ]

Well, I have recently changed my mind and sold.I was expecting the price to have moved up by now leading up to FY announcement.

NPAT increase of 10-12% has been priced in and I guess that there will be no surprises.PE around 15 compared with FBU under 10.
Building slowdown expected ahead so possibly a flat yr ahead.

Good solid stock but I feel that there are better opportunities elsewhere.

[kittydashwood]

I totally disagree on your evaluation of CAV.
If it's good for FBU it's good for CAV. Building consents reach 30-year high Local bodies issued 3447 building consents for new dwellings last month, the highest monthly total for 30 years.
That's more floor area to carpet with the best carpet in the world than any other year, CAV has another year of rising sales domestically. Don't get me wrong I think there are a lot of good opportunities out there, but really with a US election and an Olympics coming up you need to check your risk exposure and for me CAV has been that share that rises in a falling market.

[}:)]

[KJ]

Kitty-that's fine-you say "if it's good for FBU it's good for CAV"

However,in FBU's favour, there is an unprecedented amount of non-residential construction work in the pipeline-forecast to rise from $3.5b to $4.36b over the next 2 yrs.

eg in June they won a $55m contract to reclaim 9.5ha of land at AK Container terminal.

FBU will participate in infrastructure spending
$1.6b Ak roads
$1.0b Electricity generation
$150m sewerage works

FBU is now much more diversified than they used to be which will help when the inevitable building slow down hits.

If you look at the 6 mths ended Dec results:

CAV-revenue up 4.5% during a very busy period for building construction-NPAT up 12%

FBU-revenue up 30%-NPAT up 34%

Then we have FBU on a PE of 10 with CAV on 15 (just maybe this is too high)

As I said I still think CAV is a good solid stock.I had a good run but have decided to move on .

[Lawso]

KJ: Why FBU or CAV? Why not FBU and CAV. Both are great stocks. Sure, CAV's s p has been going sideways for a while and FBU's has been strong but that's not a worry IMO, if you take more than a short-term view.

[KJ]

Lawso-then why are you still waiting for CAV to drop to $4.50 before you buy?

I have made my choice to sell and am happy to live with it.

[Lawso]

Because by any reckoning I'm overweight in CAV already, KJ. It's my biggest holding but I'm not selling because there is still more growth in it. Actually, I did reduce slightly last October, when the price was 540! Couldn't resist taking some profit. CAV will not - repeat not - ever return to 450. (Unless they do another split like they did in '02) It's clearasmud who said he was waiting for the price to fall to 450.

[KJ]

Fair enough Lawso-good luck with your overweight position.

[nelehdine]

I'm still waiting on the sidelines Lawso ... will hopefully have some cash to buy back in by Sept ... share price still below where I sold and vines doing well !!

[kittydashwood]

Classic sucker punch action with CAV
Low volumes dripping through under 5 dollars. The game is for everybody to look the other way and wait till the sellers lose nerve and sell lower.
Hey I'm not buying;)

[kittydashwood]

Interesting projected residential building from the FBU presentation. hardly the softening you are suggesting KJ.

CAV report due 23rd August?

[Long Strangle]

Still holding. ;) LS.

[KJ]

Kitty-I think that you have your rose-tinted specs on.

My post dated 29 July-"Building slowdown expected ahead so possibly a flat yr ahead"

So I am talking about the YR AHEAD-ie Year ending 30/6/05

From FBU announcement today-"Mr Waters said the outlook for the current yr (30/6/05)was that any softening in the NZ and Aussi residential markets was expected to be largely offset by stronger non-residential construction"

So FBU are expecting some softening in the residential market.

I don't understand you.I am not sorry that I sold CAV and bought more FBU.

[kittydashwood]

Don't get me wrong KJ both are great companies with excellent management. As for switching, absolutely a good thing to do. 5.06 has been the trading range high that lately was confirmed but not broken. CAV is in the 4.75-5.06 range. FBU has been on a great rising trend and in fact I picked some up in the sell off yesterday @4.82

However my point is what a fickle thing the market is, analysts, etraders, moms and pops, funds, Dr Cullen, can abandon stocks as fast as they pick them up not matter what the long term earnings for the company. I'm not advocating investing in shares that seem to be standing still. In fact I sold off half my CAV when the 30MVA was broken late last year, however the other half of my holdings I kept as the longer stop loss wasn't broken. I guess when the market comes back round to this share in 2006 or if CAV open a new plant or announce further dividend increases, then the accrued value from the stagnant period will be realised in the share price.

[KJ]

Fair points Kitty-if CAV comes in with higher earnings than expected this could kick start things.

[kittydashwood]

CAV
20/08/2004
FLLYR

REL: 1508 HRS Cavalier Corporation Limited

FLLYR: CAV: FULLYR TO 30/6/04 $21.011M ($18.263M) +15% DIV 14.5 CPS

Name of Listed Issuer: CAVALIER CORPORATION LIMITED
For full year ended 30/6/04
Report based on audited accounts

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
Total operating revenue: $198.633M ($193.222M) +3%
OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX: $32.194m ($28.316M) +14%
Less tax on operating surplus: $10.761M ($9.460M) +14%
OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX BUT BEFORE MINORITY INTERESTS: $21.433M
($18.856M) +14%
Less minority interests: $0.422M ($0.593M) -29%
OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER:
$21.011M ($18.263M) +15%
Earnings per share: 32.7cps (29.0cps) +13%
Final dividend: 14.5 cps
Record date: 1/10/04
Payment date: 8/10/04
Imputation tax credit on final dividend: 7.1418 cps

CAVALIER CORPORATION ANNOUNCES RECORD RESULTS FOR YEAR ENDED 30/6/04

The Directors of Cavalier Corporation are pleased to report on the Company's
financial results for the year ended 30 June 2004.

Financial Performance

Operating revenue rose by 3% during the year to $198.6 million.

The net operating surplus attributable to shareholders of the Company was
$21.0 million, compared with $18.3 million last year, an improvement of 15%.
This marks another record year for the Company and makes this year the third
consecutive year of record earnings. It represents earnings per share of 32.7
cents, compared with 29.0 cents in 2003.

The net operating surplus is largely the result of continuing growth in the
carpet operations. It is also ahead of the $20.0 million earnings prediction
we made to shareholders at the time we announced our interim results in
February.

Financial Position

The Group's financial position was further strengthened during the year by
the addition of $4.2 million to shareholders' equity.

Total assets employed were $129.7 million, an increase of $14.2 million on
last year. The increase reflects, in the main, our plant expansion and
upgrade programmes.

Term borrowings increased by $8.7 million over the year because we
debt-funded these programmes. However, our level of borrowings remains
extremely modest. Our debt to equity ratio is 37:63 and interest costs are
covered 16.5 times by earnings.

Working capital remained virtually unchanged at $41.9 million despite
increased trading levels over the year.

Cash Flows

Net cash flows from operating, investing, and financing activities were a
positive $23.6 million, a negative $16.7 million, and a negative $7.5 million
respectively.

The net cash outflow from investing activities was much higher than in
previous years due to some large one-off capital spends which were required
to increase manufacturing capacity. These included the following:
- $7.0 million on providing more yarn capacity for carpet manufacturing
- $1.5 million on upgrading the carpet tile dye-injection equipment
- $1.7 million on increasing facilities at Hawkes Bay Woolscourers

On top of that, there was the $1.8 million we spent on increasing our stake
in Hawkes Bay Woolscourers to 92.5%.

Return on Funds Employed

The after-tax return on shareholders' equity for this year has increased to
32.8%, up from the 2003 and 2002 years of 31.2% and 24.0% respectively.

In contrast, the after-tax return on total funds employed for this year was
virtually unchanged at 21.4% despite the growth in earnings. The reason for
this lies in the $8 million worth of debt-funded, but as yet incomplete,
capital expenditure programmes that are yet to yield a return.

Operations

Cavalier reports in terms of two industry segments - Carpets and Wool.

Within the Carpet Operation segment, there are two distinct areas of
operations, broadloom carpets and carpet tiles. The broadloom carpet
operation is Cavalier's main core business. It manufactures and markets 100%
NZ woollen carpets under the well-known brands of Bremworth, Cavalier
Bremworth, Knightsbridge, and Kimberley. The second disti

[Lawso]

CAV delivers the goods again! Nervous Nellies like KJ seem to have overlooked or forgotten W Chung's forecast back in May of a 10% rise in npat to around $20m. Actual: $21m. And a yummy final div of 14.5c, making 27c for the year on eps of 32.7c :)

[KJ]

Lawso-I like to think that I am objective and do not feel that I need to justify my reason for selling but I am happy that I did so and added to my FBU holding.I have an exit strategy.

Don't you still hold WHS? That's what happens when you fall in love with stocks.

Just to correct you-Chung's forecast was first made in Feb and the market would have priced it in accordingly-surely you know that the market works ahead.

CAV started the yr at $5.50 and is now still under $5.00.Hardly startling given the strength of the overall market and the strong housing market.Compare it with FBU and STU.Do you think that the market has got it wrong?

Forecast for the yr ahead is for a 7% increase in NPAT.
What do you think the price will be in 12 mths?

Nervous Nellie

[kittydashwood]

The key words in this report are increased market share and increased capacity.

Besides much of the SP drift down could be directly linked to the retirement of Timpson.

The market has it wrong, there is no foward calculation of the microbial potential and I'd expect a positive announcement on this next report.

Price in 12 months 5.75

[Lawso]

You're on to it, Kitty. And the fly-strike thing could yet be a winner.

KJ: I can think of four factors - none of them particularly valid IMO - why CAV's share price has drifted sideways lately.

1. Timpson's retirement and CEO James stepping down.
2. Concern about the FTX float and some switching into that stock
3. Exaggerated and still largely unfounded concerns about a housing collapse
4. Continued failure of some analysts/brokers to give CAV its due.

Maybe the s p of around 550 was a bit rich but I'm v comfortable with the price around $5 and a healthy yield.

Fair enough, KJ, that you switched into FBU. You won't have regretted it. I'm happy to be a holder of both. (Never had STU unfortunately.) And Yes, I still hold some WHS but I certainly don't love them [V]. Quite the opposite. I sold half of them a while back for 407 :( and didn't sell out completely only because I hate selling anything for less than I paid for it. Reckon I'll be out of WHS by, say, end of the year.

[kittydashwood]

CAV
31/08/2004
ASSET

REL: 1345 HRS Cavalier Corporation Limited

ASSET: CAV: Cavalier expands wool scouring interests into South Island

Cavalier announces today that it has, through its 92.5% subsidiary, Hawkes
Bay Woolscourers Limited, taken up a 50% interest in Canterbury Woolscourers
Limited.

Canterbury Woolscourers is a company that has been formed to acquire and
consolidate the operations of the Winchester scour previously owned by
Ferrier Woolscours (Canterbury) Limited and the Fairlie scour previously
owned by Fairlie Wool Scour (Timaru NZ) Limited.

Over the next nine months, Canterbury Woolscourers will be consolidating the
two operations on to the Fairlie site. At the same time, it will also be
increasing and upgrading the existing Fairlie facilities to make the scour
amongst the most modern and sophisticated in the country. When completed, it
will result in an increase in capacity that will enable the company to
efficiently and effectively service the industry.

Hawkes Bay Woolscourers operates as an independent commission wool scour in
the North Island. It has a reputation for outstanding quality and service,
and the operations of Canterbury Woolscourers will be modelled along these
lines.

Hawkes Bay Woolscourers will be taking a direct management role to ensure
that Canterbury Woolscourers meets these key objectives.

Cavalier Managing Director, Wayne Chung, said that the directors are pleased
to be able to extend the company's involvement in the commission wool
scouring industry to the South Island and, in so doing, offer that same
commitment to outstanding quality and service to those existing clients that
operate throughout the country and to the industry at large.

Canterbury Woolscourers is expected to have total assets employed of around
$13 million upon the completion of the planned restructuring and plant
upgrades.

[kittydashwood]

The Aussie cross rate seems to have brought more pressure on the CAV shareprice. Once again support arrives @ 4.80. Technically the share is due for another fall. From DMI it shows the bears are in control and I noticed there were no buyers for most of the morning until some cheeky bugger popped one in at 4.40. Positive news was the share got the McEwen "yield play" line, although he did mention the word overheated?

I can't help but think this share price is lower than it should be despite the macro factors, might have to get some more.


Long term holder.

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

The Aussie cross rate seems to have brought more pressure on the CAV shareprice. Once again support arrives @ 4.80. Technically the share is due for another fall. From DMI it shows the bears are in control and I noticed there were no buyers for most of the morning until some cheeky bugger popped one in at 4.40. Positive news was the share got the McEwen "yield play" line, although he did mention the word overheated?

I can't help but think this share price is lower than it should be despite the macro factors, might have to get some more.

Long term holder.



Kitty, who knows what is going to happen in the future! Despite what everyone thinks CAV is worth, the general consensus is that, as today, it's worth $4.80. I think CAV will take some time off, which should be expected due to it's 4 year stellar run:D

I must ask - what does McEwen mean by 'overheated'? I would have certainly agreed if he had mentioned this in Oct/Nov/Dec 2003, but currently CAV is certainly NOT 'overheated', TA wise[:X] Was he referring to TA or FA[?]

rgds

[kittydashwood]

Interesting times for CAV, good to see bids below 4.80 but I fear these buyers are dreaming. As rises in the OBV mean topping up days could be soon over.

[kittydashwood]

4.70 support broken after being tested earlier in the year. Marco conditions have been tough for most of the year but earnings keep rising and CAV continue to make good inroads in China.

Technically I should have been out of this stock when it failed to raise the 5.06 high. But this is a quality company with a quality product and I have stayed in for the the long haul. I'm tempted at 4.60 to go for more despite the technicals but will probably wait as bottom picking is dodgy stuff.

Where will the new support be or is this an anomaly as OBV has been gradually rising

[rosey]

I think the next support level will be around the 4.50 mark

[nelehdine]

Last year CAV paid 27c in divs , the year before 25c. A reasonable bet that this year it will be 29c which at $4.65 is a yield of 6.24%. Clearly this is great value for long term investors. I have been holding back on re-purchasing CAV after selling them at $5 about 4 months ago but dived in today at 470. At 450 I will buy more as I think this recent sell-off has created some real value here IMHO. Lock away and enjoy the tax paid yield of 6 1/4pct , the capital gains over the next few years will be pure bonus !!

PS .... By far and away the coolest ads on TV as well !!!!

[Phaedrus]

One by one, a variety of trend indicators have given Sell signals for this stock. The last one was today when CAV broke below previous support at $4.70 as mentioned by Kittydashwood. By chance, this was also the level of the 20x Average True Range Trailing stop. Each Sell signal is marked by an arrow of the appropriate colour. These signals are all late, of course. That is the nature of trend-following - you are late in and late out because you are using trailing indicators.
Take a look though at the On Balance Volume indicator plotted at the top of the chart. This is a leading indicator - it tends to precede price action. At around $5.50, at the top of the price curve, there was clear evidence that distribution was taking place. The OBV dropped sharply, breaking its upward trend and continuing to fall, while the price stayed high. The OBV [i]lead[i/] price action by about 6 weeks.
I am now completely out of CAV, having held this stock for over 3 years.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/CAV002.gif

[nelehdine]

Well Lawso , you quote on the 1st August that CAV will never trade at 450 again didn't pass the test of time ( hardly any time really ) I purchased a few more CAV just a few minutes ago at 450. Strang how a couple of sellers can wake up one morning with the shares closing the night before at 465 and decide to offer theirs at 450 !! Not complaining though as at 450 and with the intention to hold for many years I think the shares are excellent value.

Never say never my friend ... it's a heck of a long time !!!

Are my CAV friends Kitty,LS and Lawso also topping up ???

[nelehdine]

450 bid now ... hope it was one of you guys that cleaned out the sellers. At 450 the dividend yield is 6.44% ... excellent income !!

[croesus]

Nel I make the div close to 10 % gross, ... who would invest in shonky finance companys when a well managed stock such as this is yielding the same or more.

[nelehdine]

Agreed Croesus ... I don't look at the imp credits when calculating a div yield ... so my 6.44% is after tax assuming a 29cps payout this coming financial year.

[Lawso]

I think it was clearasmud who said he was waiting for the price to fall to 450. I said he'd have a long wait! Well, longish. Have you bought today,cam?

[Lawso]

As for me, I've just bought the tickets for a trip to the States - no money left :(

[nelehdine]

Closed at 460 with buyers all the way back down to 450. I wonder if the small volume this morning traded at 450 was the near term low.

Disc; Added 1100 CAV today at 450 ( Guess I was in the right place at the right time ?? )

[Lawso]

Good on you, neleh. No word from clearasmud, though.
I've been in CAV since '96. Sold down a few (2k) about a year ago @ 540 - near the top according to Phaedrus's chart. My average buy price is 108.7c and if I included the divs for the last 8 years I reckon my holding - about 17% of the portfolio - has cost me next to nothing. So I'm not too worried about today's fall. Wouldn't buy more, even if I had the cash, because I reckon I'm still a bit overweight in CAv. I'm picking the recovery will be gradual. Note that FBU, at its very upbeat AGM today, does predict a residential building slow down in the second half of '04-05, which may be seen as a bit negative for CAV and FTX. Can't think of any other reason why CAV was savaged today, though the volume was light - 13,900 according to T'text.

[kittydashwood]

4.40 after the dividend will be my entry point. Should be higher wool prices next season. Any sheep farmers out there, Augie?

[clips]

kitty - higher wool prices next year ?? i can't see any reason why, but wouldn't mind. pls enlighten..

[boring]

I've been keeping an eye on CAV with interest lately ... looking to take advantage of the recent share price weakness. My ability to catch falling knives is atrocious at best, so I may use the technical MA30 indicator to attempt to time my purchase.

As I fundamental long-term investor, probably shouldn't really bother trying to time a purchase in, but I always hate buying, then proceeding to watch the price fall another 10 - 20% as I have done so often in the past.

I figure the price weakness is due to the usual concerns ... high $NZD, possibility of a more "bumpy" landing of the NZ/AU economy causing a slowdown in residential and commercial construction etc. But I just can not resist the temptation to get in on this quality company for a long-term blue-chip investment.

You holders out there still happy with this company ?

[kittydashwood]

Currently completely out of this stock for the first time in 4 Years. Post dividend drop seems to confirm downtrend although I'm still waiting for the second bottom at 4.40-4.20 .

Brokers have undervalued this company because of high exchange rates, any fall below .89 with the AUD would trigger my re-entry.
An announcement about CAV expansion into China would also be another trigger. As a free trade deal with China may hurt the likes of PPL, POD. CAV, FTX if they don't find ways to take advantage.

[Lawso]

I'm holding, for reasons I've outlined earlier. A good and well managed company which has treated long-term holders very well. The current price makes the yield even more attractive. I'm not buying more, though. I'm still overweight in CAV, though the %age of my portfolio is reducing to what some might say is a saner level.

[nelehdine]

Will be adding on further weakness down to 425, If the divi picks up a couple of cents to 29c then the yield will make this an excellent buy, the great long-term position of the company and excellent management will be chucked in for free.

Hold CAV ...

[KJ]

I have been out of CAV since July but at $4.00 to $4.25 I will think about it again.

[Mingeathinaikos]

Any feelings around whether CAV will continue to slide, and if so where to. I find it hard to believe it'll go much below $4.25, but then again people on this thread said never below $4.50!:D

Phaedrus stuck to his guns and exited prior to a big slip....well done.

Talking to some CAV holders the other day and they were cashing up and going in to Feltex...not sure if that is frying pan to the fire?[}:)]

[Mingeathinaikos]

quote:Originally posted by Mingeathinaikos

Any feelings around whether CAV will continue to slide, and if so where to. I find it hard to believe it'll go much below $4.25, but then again people on this thread said never below $4.50!:D



Down to $4.21 already!:( Opps.

[Paper Tiger]

Cheer up, it dropped less than Feltex :(

[rosey]

Hullo
can someone please explain to me the share rights that are being issued to the executives of this company
according to the share holder notices
is this some thing that they are entitled re there finance package
or is it an indication of something in the wind
thanks in advance
rosey

[kittydashwood]

Scary looking OBV downtrend still in place, big negative volume on Wednesday as bottom pickers got burnt or nellie got nervous. Any announcement would have to be good to see a second coming. Will watch with interest on Monday. PE of 10 is not unthinkable now and would be attractive reentry at 3.25-3.50.

[winner69]

PATIENCE MY MAN - at least that the big boss said at the AGM

(Quote)
Shareholders who have supported Cavalier over past years have done very well..... (except for the year to June 2004 when the return was only 6%) ....And for those who purchased one year ago, it would be 6%.....The 6% one year return is, of course, disappointing and even more so as we've seen our share price come back over the last few days. The main reason for this has been the change in market sentiments towards companies, like Cavalier, who are associated with the building and housing sectors.

Currently, the market sees both these sectors to be at the top of their business cycles and expects them to come under pressure from the recent interest rate increases.

Warren Buffett, a renowned and highly successful American sharemarketinvestor, said that share-markets transfer wealth from the impatient to thepatient. The message here is that you need to be patient by taking a longer-term view when investing in the sharemarket. For the Cavalier shareholder, who has supported us for some time, your patience has been well rewarded.

And for the recent Cavalier shareholder, your patience is required.

[winner69]

Also at the AGM the man did say that 35 cents eps this year budgeted ... but running a bit behind that after 4 months

And he did say that hedging ran out soon .. maybe that has got the market freaked out a bit

Maybe a rerating is under way and your pe of 10 is on the cards .... 10 times what is the answer ... doesn't sound like 10 tims 35 cents ... maybe 10 times 29 cents if there is 10% earnings decline

Suppose many keemly awaiting H1 results

[croesus]

Being a comitted contrarian I grabbed this falling knife last Friday, but the small cut I had on my finger yesterday had mysteriously healed when I turned on Stockness after a days sojurn in CHCH, ( incidently why does our handwringing dogooding Govt pay for the holiday lifestyle of the skinhead scum who seem to be in abundance in this city) anyway can any CAV aficiandos explain the rise in todays S/P.. or is it a just a dead CAV bounce.

[Longtack]

Croesus - the thrice-tested support @ $4.20 odd may have prompted the bounce and $4.40 will bring it above the 40 day EMA I reckon.

As for the skinhead skum skulking in Kristchurch, they began breeding in the early 80's and have survived successive gummints. I give'm the finger on occasions - then peddle like hell (just for the stimulation naturally.)[8D]

[glennj]

Cav has been a great stock but I recently sold half my holding for
just a 20% annualised gain. This should have been more but I watched the gradual slide a bit long. Am watching the remaining parcel more closely.
I should probably have reacted to all the insider selling
that was going on a while back.

[Lawso]

Bit of a setback (-5c) for CAV today after the recent welcome signs of revival. Wonder what this means for the interim result and div announcement, due tomorrow.

[Lawso]

quote:I should probably have reacted to all the insider selling
that was going on a while back.
This is the first I've heard of selling by CAV insiders, glennj. Tell us more. What evidence do you have?

[Lawso]

OK, I've located the company announcement back on Nov. 11 when a bunch of executives sold some of the shares that had been issued to them. It was all above board and fully reported to NZSX. Not insider trading as that term is generally understood to mean, but perhaps it led to some loss of confidence in the stock.
Meanwhile anxiously awaiting CAV's profit announcement - later today?

[Lawso]

STOP THE PRESSES! CAV announces h-y np of $10.7m (pcp $10.3m), up 4%. 2nd int div steady 8cps.

Not brilliant, but not bad in all the circs. Certainly not bad enough to account for the recent s p weakness. Interesting that the directors have chosen not to bolster the s p with a small div increase. Saving it for a bumper final, I reckon.

[Lawso]

I reckon it's time to give CAV a bit of a ramp. With the s p down in the 420s (not helped by FTX's rather negative announcement), I don't see how value investors can ignore it. The p/e is now a very modest 13% and the yield a highly satisfactory 9+%.

Sure, we know about the problems - high NZD, suspected construction slowdown - but CAV has more than held its own in this environment. The interim NPAT (to 31/12) was up 4% and eps of 33c was up 1.5%. There have been two steady interim divs and I'm picking directors are keeping their powder dry for a modest lift in the 04-05 final div.

Long-term holders have done really well out of CAV, e.g. an annual return over four years of 37% compounded. Not only for LT. With the s p now down more than 120c from last year's high, now is the time for value investors to jump in, IMEO.

[KJ]

Lawso-I am surprised at you-it has been in a downtrend for a yr and continues to be in a downtrend-why would one buy?

[Phaedrus]

Lawso, too soon mate. You fundies are supposed to be patient folk!
CAV is still in a downtrend, still making lower lows and lower highs. Take a look at the On Balance Volume at the top of the chart - it too is in a clear downtrend and well below its confirmed trendline. See how larger holders of this stock are still dumping (red circles). Stay out. I could show you plenty of other indicators saying the same thing, but why clutter a nice clear chart?

You guys scare me. Way back, really early in the downtrend, you were all speaking of "good buying", "topping up", "buying back in", "averaging down", "good value at this price", "buying opportunities"...........
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/CAV223001.gif

[k1w1]

Share analysis:

Lawso vs Phaedrus.

Game, set and match - Phaedrus. 6-1,6-0,6-0.

[Paper Tiger]

Of course if we all played the TA game then those that were going down would continue down to $0.00 whilst those that go up would go to infinity (and beyond).
Lawso make the trend breaks that Phaedrus spots.
Meanwhile FTX is still in an uptrend...[:0]

[duncan macgregor]

PAPER TIGER can i be so bold and say my time line would have had me out of this ages ago. [Thought you would like to know that].macdunk

[Paper Tiger]

Of course if we all played the TimeLine(tm) game.... ;)

[Lawso]

Well, I tried.

And I may have aroused some interest among l-t investors. Still reckon they are good value at the current price, and because I've been in so long and have been treated so well by CAV, I'm enjoying excellent double-digit returns, even though the value of the holding has dropped below six figures. Appreciate your comments, guys.

If clearasmud is listening, I'd like to thank him for not saying "Told you so" after I scoffed at his suggestion last year that the price would go down to 450 [B)]

[prosperity]

Twice recently CAV has found support at the $4.20 level and after today' fall could well test it again tomorrow. Not interested in buying at present, but watching with interest.

[Lawso]

Let's be clear about this. Phaedrus's CAV chart, for all its elegance and clarity, does no more than track market sentiment. And we know that one element rarely found in market sentiment is logic. (Witness the dive in NPX sp after this morning's solid result.)

Logic, or FA if you like, tells me that CAV offers great value (income + security) at current prices. Only a matter of time before more value investors recognise this IMO.

And while I'm not reading too much into today's 8c rise on small volume, logic, not TA, tells me that CAV has just about bottomed.

[boring]

I'm pretty much with Lawso on this.

For investors with long-term perspectives, sometimes it's best to buy quality companies that have been beaten down because of unfavourable macros at the time. Quality management can keep a company ticking over during unfavourable conditions, and when the economic cycle turns for the better, the favourable climate can really be exploited.

I'm not by any means saying that this share has bottomed out (too difficult a call for mere mortals), but "fallen-star" investors note, this share may be well worth a look.

[prosperity]

I see the price is back to it's support level of $4.20.Yes it might be a great company at supposed cheap prices but you can't deny the fact that the price is still trending down with the likelihood that any fall through this point leaves it with support and resistance around $4.00.Watching with interest.

[kittydashwood]

just when you thought you were out they keep dragging you back in.

Bought back in before the dividend. Trying to preempt a bottom is hard work especially when the downtrend is so firm, however there seems to be a nadir of volume and selling seems to have dried up. CAV is definately oversold but the market is not logical so share price could wallow for months.Still the market has a long memory and 4.20 has been a historical support (after the share split) so I'm confident barring forex disaster that the company will do well over the next few years.

eventually the key will be CAV's success in the chinese market and maybe even to move some production offshore.

Holding CAV

[nelehdine]

Shares dn to 380, the way they are trading I anticipate a profit warning on similar lines to FPA a few months ago. Am so tempted to "double-up" at these levels but the shares are SO weak , dn 10pct inside the last 10 days .. after falling 25pct prior to that in the previous 10 months, you gotta think someone closer to the company knows more than me !!

Whadda ya reckon Lawso ... this is costing you a small fortune !!

Disc: Hold CAV & FPA !!! Ouch !!

[nelehdine]

Well I predicted a profit warning last night ... happens to be Feltex rather than CAV this a.m. Unfortunately CAV will probably now confirm the tough conditions FTX have mentioned ... amazing how quickly the Oz and NZ economies are grinding to a halt ... I can't beleive Bollard raised rates again 2 weeks ago ... what a &*(^%$ !!

[nelehdine]

In for a penny , in for a pound ... just bgt 5000 FTX at $1 ... Who's the April Fool ????

[Lawso]

quote:Whadda ya reckon Lawso ... this is costing you a small fortune !!
Yes, on paper I'm down about $36k since the peak [B)]. But I'm up around 350% in capital since first dipping a toe in CAV in '96. To say nothing of the yummy div income.

[croesus]

Picked up some CAV (not enough) at $3.65, brave call buying Feltex Nele, my gut feeling is that they are a bit flaky, Hope it works for you.

[Lawso]

Good on yer, croesus. Like you I much prefer CAV to FTX which, with typically brilliant insight, I exited last year @ 168 :)

[Stock Man]

Well no April fool trick here. Cant actually see any compelling reason to go long just yet......although volume isn't really confirming the downtrend per se.

Here is a weekly (very similar to Phaedrus daily). The sell signals may vary slightly (remember this is a Weekly chart). But in general, it doesn't matter - the message is the same.

The MACD is showing an oversold state - this does not mean that the downtrend has finished. The adx line is rising - bearish given that - is above +

The magenta lines show support and resistance. The support and resistance is quite orderly with this stock, so it will be interesting to see if the levels mentioned provide future sup/res to the same degree.

At the far right of the chart the downtrend appears to be accelerating.....and it is. The light at the end of the tunnel could be the fact that I mentioned in my second sentence - that volume isn't really confirming the current downtrend.




http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v292/investornz/cav_weekly1_4_05b.gif

[nelehdine]

Flicked my FTX at 106 Croesus , pay for a nice weekend !!

[Dazza]

nice 6% daily trade there nele
am so glad i excited around the 154 mark

my mate must be hurting.. i did tell him to exit..

[Bobco]

No mention of the insider buy, Timpson spent $1/4 million at $4.12.
People like this are not in the habit of wasting/losing their money, thought it showed a lot of confidence in CAV weathering the storm.

[Bobco]

And he has disclosed another 33,600 share purchase last week costing $133,280, thats an average $3.97.

Does this mean CAV has not got the problems like FTX

[Stock Man]

Are you sure he wasn't shorting or covering[?]:)

[Bobco]

Looks like a standard notice/announcement to NZX to me, the word "acquisition" is used.

[Bobco]

Is the time now 11:40 am or am I in a warp zone?

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by Bobco

Looks like a standard notice/announcement to NZX to me, the word "acquisition" is used.


Forgive me Bobco for my ineffectual attempt at humor.;) Besides, what sort of message would it send to all those holders still hoping that they have seen the bottom, while a director shorts the stock[B)][:p]

[croesus]

Hey Nele, I am pleased you took your $300 odd profit, hopefully your wknd was up to expectations... picked up a few more CAV today, am enjoying this market downturn.
regards Croesus
ps Feltex will see 70c or Im a Black man

[Bobco]

Timpson still buying, and another director had a wee dabble as well, such confidence !!!