THE KING & BGR WHAT NOW.

THE KING says someone said Stirling is not a DONE deal yet, Silance seems to ring LOUDLEY and looking at the Paraparaumu shop many times it has never had a customer in it YET while there..[^]

Went to Rebel at Porirua a well fitted out shop very smart turn same prob NO custom NO there is NO simple ANSWER.. [^][^]

Australia Wins Cricket.. THE KING

[Gryffyn]

Are you about to bail om BGR king? You don't sound as bullish as old.

[hesiod]

Wouldn't have minded being a fly on that wall.
AW : rod got a minute
RD : sure whazzup ?
AW : With Xmas coming up I need a little spare cash for the bling bling time. Only way I can see that happening is off loading a little of my portfolio.
RD : What were you thinking of selling ? NOG is a great sell option.
AW : No its a little closer to home ... That 500 K

Rest of conversation eclipsed by loud explosion from Duke. After much nashing of teeth settle on sale & purchase (off market).
3 month scenario ... New Dep MD appointed after agreed departure.
Sheesh perhaps I should follow suit any one know the Dukes number ?

THE KING says Never let yer Left hand know what yer Right hand is DOING... [^][^][^]

[Gryffyn]

Duke expands his Briscoe empire


04.12.04
By PETER GRIFFIN


Briscoe chief Rod Duke dug into his pocket this week to snap up $655,000 of shares in the company as deputy Alaister Wall sold down his stake in the retail group.

Duke now owns more than 74 per cent of the shares in Briscoe Group, which runs the Briscoe and Rebel Sports retail chains.

At yesterday's closing share price of $1.31, Duke's stake in Briscoe is worth $206 million.

Duke snapped up 500,000 shares put on the market by deputy managing director Wall, who was coy on his reasons for selling.

"There's no particular reason, it's a personal decision," said Wall who, in a separate transaction on Thursday, bought 220,000 at $1 each as part of an option scheme to which he belongs. Several other Briscoe executives also converted options into shares this week.

Duke joins The Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall as an entrepreneur whose wealth is largely made up of retail shareholdings.

The Warehouse and Briscoe face the looming Christmas selling season, during which retailers can accumulate a hefty proportion of annual sales.

Both listed retailers will be looking for sales growth to make up for a disappointing few months.

The two retailers were hit by sluggish third-quarter sales figures, which arrived as statistics from the Government showed the retail sector over all was thriving.

Briscoe saw sales drop about 3 per cent in the three months to October compared with the same period last year but homeware sales were up 3 per cent on a "same-store" basis.

THE KING says Read enought and you mite learn something but its better on the real inside,, This statement of 74% means that he has been BUYING now for sometime now as THE KING seem to feel that the stock had a strong buyer over the last year the cat out of the bag he did start with 70%.. [^]

DUKE is on the GOOD side of the till his weekly div is about the size of an aveage KIWI yearly salary even with this stock support dose not beet the mood of NZ investors this means he is your only FRIEND.. [xx(][^][xx(]

[huds]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Read enought and you mite learn something but its better on the real inside,, This statement of 74% means that he has been BUYING now for sometime now as THE KING seem to feel that the stock had a strong buyer over the last year the cat out of the bag he did start with 70%.. [^]

DUKE is on the GOOD side of the till his weekly div is about the size of an aveage KIWI yearly salary even with this stock support dose not beet the mood of NZ investors this means he is your only FRIEND.. [xx(][^][xx(]


Not true, last years report states he owned 157,500,000 shares, with the 500k purchase makes 158 mil even.
No other buying & no conspiracy [^][^][^] [:p]

[halcyon9]

The King doesnt know what his right hand is doing?
Thats been obvious for the whole of 04[^]


Still hasnt explained why he thought BGR was on a PE of 8-9??? which he stated for a good reason why this stock was undervalued.

I guess he looked at DBs website details and took it for gospel.


and whatever happened to PPG???
After ramping up the prospects of this share...he later stated that he has only ever owned 2 retail stocks BGR and SCY.


and finally he turns bearish on BGR???
the price was $1.51-3 at the beginning of this thread!!!!


sry but "the KING" has been dethroned on this one

[^][^][^]

BTW, I told you to buy MHI;)

THE KING says nine new new name but still the same DUMB B U M ..[^]
lover

THE KING says huds another NON holder.. [^][^]

[Sky Tower]

THE KING & BBR What now?

One word: Sell

THE KING says DUMB dnick get off de throne and who is BBG... & put out De LIGHT.. [^][^]

[halcyon9]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says nine new new name but still the same DUMB B U M ..[^]
lover



:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

whats the BGR PE now?

comeon KING...

so it's a SELL now

shall we take a 15% loss? while the NZX has gone up 40%? and MHI 70% since my call;)



wow!!! an 85% difference from a dummy:D
and a dummy with 103% average in the NZX COMP.


ouch...
[^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]

BTW...did you realize it was ME calling MAP a buy at 90C BEFORE YOU EVEN HAD HEARD OF IT?

tickle me again almighty KING...

but please, please put some clothes on first[:0]

[Steve]

I would look at getting back into BGR when it gets back down to 125c.

[Gryffyn]

Sorry Steve, it's on its way up now ;)

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Sorry Steve, it's on its way up now ;)


It's tracking sideways, waiting for the next disappointing announcement, before going on special.

[Bling_Bling]

What price did The Duke get his shares at?

THE KING says B++++ NO wonder why you look at the Forbes List its your last HOPE... [^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

KING, dont tell me you are Bill Gates posting on Sharetrader. [^]

THE KING says B++++ you cant even make a FUNNY.. [^]

[Bling_Bling]

Why is the Retail spending stats going up and BGR profit going down? [^] Maybe cos BGR is a DOG? Or maybe BGR is in the smae boat as WHS. It has grown to a size where it can no longer grow in NZ and must look offshore to expand, but where? ... LOL

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3118413a13,00.html

THE KING says B++++ you call that funny its about Credit Cards and any way hows your CARD..[^]

[Bling_Bling]

My Community Services card is fine, thank you. :D

THE KING says B++++ Now we know the reason you write it fills in your time to the next Helen Clark CHEQUE.. [^]

[halcyon9]

King, I see you still can't answer the most basic questions

1. What is the BGR PER?
2. What happened to your PPG investment?
3. What do you think of being whipped by 85% in 8 months by a dummy?


Any other stocks you can give us to "underperform" the NZX50?

You've had a very below average year no doubt[?]
Not even enough to clothe yourself[?][?][?][:0]

[Bling_Bling]

Hal9, The King made a call and got it wrong. So what? We all get it wrong from time to time.

It is one thing pointing out the fundamentals of a stock, but to personally attacking everyone in this forum is not a good look.

Time for a break, time for a KIT KAT !

[halcyon9]

correction

The KING got it wrong, can't answer simple questions when he ramps up his shares and calls the man who kicked his **** by 85% a dummy.


and finally if the King has any balls, which I can't quite tell even tho he is standing naked in front of his new master...

he would acknowledge his mistake!

and bow to a superior when he knows one:D

[^][^][^]
still so satisfied no bling bling

[Bling_Bling]

ummmm.... interesting.

KING, are you still a shareholder of BGR? Please explain.

[halcyon9]

It's quite simple...


outing a dumb cockroach only takes two steps...

1. Ask some up front but "basic" Qs
2. No reply from said cockroach =


answer...

cornered and too embarrassed to respond.

THE KING says B++++ Bad Luck your caught the nine VIRUS... [^]

[halcyon9]

[^]nothing to say[^]
:D:D:D:D:D

[winner69]

KING .... what's happened to that much vaunted Stirling Sports franchise?

Dead in the water .... not worth it? or what?

THE KING says last time DUKE spoke to me he did not bring up the SUBJECT.. [^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

KING, It was your duty to bring up the subject.YOUR loyal subject macdunk

THE KING says you are a holder duncan i hope not right to bring up your name as reference you could be insider INFO.. [^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

I went shopping with the MRs at Briscoe the other day. Nothing much have changed apart from some new products. The SALE is the same as usual that comes and goes once a month. The staff always gives bad services. Like WHS nothing much has changed, so Bling dont see a point in buying this share.

THE KING says Thanks B++++ for that very little kind ADVICE... [^]

[Gryffyn]

BB, I'm a BGR holder so may seem biased but I have always had ok to good service at Briscoes. For the type of stores they are I wouldn't expect much more.

I still believe this stock is well priced and with a very good balance sheet behind it, it will prosper this year.

[Westie]

Gryff is right, the balance sheet (& cashflow statements) of BGR & WHS tell very different stories. Considering that most companies require only around 1% of sales as working capital I'm thinking that Rod Duke should start looking at doing something with that cash in the bank soon or he should be giving some back to shareholders

[Bling_Bling]

Guys, I know that BGR is a cashed up company with no debt. My argument is that the business model has not changed, so how will they grow the bottom line profit? Duke has been talking about their poor marketing discount strategy for at least one year, but he has yet to change it or come up with a better marketing strategy.

I dont think returning capital is a good long term strategy for growth and BGR is a growth stock. If you are to return captial then why do a IPO and raise the capital in the first place? You need the existing capital for opportunities.

[Gryffyn]

Actually BB, the p/e and yield would suggest that BGR is not a growth stock. Opportunities include the stirling sports deal and/or the rebel sports franchise option. Successfully tinkering with existing stores should prove profitable if the retail boom continues as it is expected to do.

THE KING says comon B++++ open up the Purse and BUY a few and be in the hunt with US... it will make you feel 100%.. [^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

I am still waiting for the right time to buy BGR.

Bling will sit in the sideline for now.

I suppose it is better for Duke to find the right opportunities to use that cash than to blindly investing in a dog. Maybe time to do an online website where customers can buy BGR products online. Alot of rural people with deep pockets have no time to travel long distance into the city.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

I suppose it is better for Duke to find the right opportunities to use that cash than to blindly investing in a dog.

Yeah, perhaps he should expand to Oz... ;)

THE KING says NO way about going to AUS dont want another Ware job but mite say a New chain of shops in a different product line to now ,, mite just HAPPEN.. [^]

[Gryffyn]

that's what ;) indicated!

THE KING says the only thing that happens by sitting on the sideline is you end up an old person that has done NOTHING.. [^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says the only thing that happens by sitting on the sideline is you end up an old person that has done NOTHING.. [^][^]


Old and wise person... LOL [^]

[rawdata]

Another profit downgrade! This is one sad stock with a never ending series of over-promising and under-delivering. $1.00 looks like where it is heading.

The sideline is not even safe at this rate!

[Bling_Bling]

OUCH !

Not good.

This must be their third downgrade.

THE KING says Not so GOOD news travels fast, GOOD news and you missed the BOAT.. [^][^]

[halcyon9]

SELL $1.20 now...

after market friday ann. DOWNGRADE...good company:(



Some REALLY simple figures for his moronesty

MARKET CAP $275m @ $1.30

FY Nett $17.5m (DOWN $6m) growth company???:D;)


still trying to tell me the PE is under 10 KING of BS?


[^][^][^]

Forward PER now 15.7

look forward to some shaving...


Assume a fair forward PER of 13 (given recent performance)

= Market Cap $227.5m / 212,150,000 shares

= actual shareprice $1.07 (@ 13x)


IMO $1.07-$1.15 is all it's worth for now.

[Bling_Bling]

I have been keeping an eye on BGR for a period waiting for the right time to buy. ... and I am still waiting after over one year.

My main concern is that there will be further downgrades in the future. Going to the stores of Briscoes and Rebel sports, nothing much have changed. The same old stores, the same marketing "SALES" strategy. Also, BGR is running out of room in NZ to grow. Aussie is NOT an option cos Rebel Sports is a Aussie Franchaise. Also, after WHS dissater in Aussie, I dont think shareholders will support BGR going there.

From this assumption, I would assume that there could be further downgrades. I would say BGR can come down further maybe less than the IPO price. No point having lots of cash if you cannot use the cash to grow the profit.

THE KING says 9 if you say so then YOU should BUY but we all know you have NO MONEY.. [^][^][^]

[halcyon9]

yep, that's about as bright as you get these days...[|)]

[^]



PS...I should have bought at $1.51-53 according to you:D:D:D

and the NZX index has done what this year[?]

...I will however listen to your new advice (because I do worship my King).. ok... Buy at $1.20 (new offer, new LOW) because my valuation is $1.07...
hmmm, let me get back to you...this will take some time

may have to consult the court jester

[:X]

[winner69]

Rod really does live in a land of hope and no glory

Rod's last 'forecast' only $6M out - only 35% out from what he said a few months ago

Fancy 'indicating' they were going to make $17M in the 2nd half year of the year and then telling long suffering loyal shareholders that BGR will probably only make $11M in the 2nd half of the year

After so many porkies for so long what credibility does this man now have - NONE

Even in the latest announcement I am sure that Rod isn't telling the full story

It has been obvious for a while now that there is something inherently wrong with the current BGR strategy.

What has happened to that $6M? - reading between the lines a competitive market hurting margins more than they are letting on and a huge increase in the expense base.

That and price deflation stuffing the BGR business at present ... but not a good situation looking forward either.

heck the last few years have been fantastic for retail - look what switched on retailers like HLG have been doing.

Will the retail environment ever be better? Unlikely - pointing to really difficult times for BGR over the next few years

Even H9 valuation of 109 is probably stretching reality in the short term

Plenty of action on Monday or are the only shareholders the likes of THE KING (sorry mate)

[halcyon9]

hey winner watch the 9s there mate

I said 107[:p]

[winner69]

Sorry H9 - prob allowed for Bling Bling coming in boots and all and putting a floor under the price and stopping it getting down to 107

Bling bling seems to be into recovery stories but its Gryff I feel sorry for

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Duke expands his Briscoe empire


04.12.04
By PETER GRIFFIN


Briscoe chief Rod Duke dug into his pocket this week to snap up $655,000 of shares in the company as deputy Alaister Wall sold down his stake in the retail group.

Duke now owns more than 74 per cent of the shares in Briscoe Group, which runs the Briscoe and Rebel Sports retail chains.

At yesterday's closing share price of $1.31, Duke's stake in Briscoe is worth $206 million.

Duke snapped up 500,000 shares put on the market by deputy managing director Wall, who was coy on his reasons for selling.

"There's no particular reason, it's a personal decision," said Wall ............... etc etc



INTERESTING

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Brave man Gryffyn ... could be "dead money" for a few more months yet ... bit like PRG and WHS. A stark contrast to HLG,MHI, and HBY. When a retail chain starts struggling it can take one hell of an effort to turn it round ... I'd pick BGR shares trade at $1 before they trade at $2 again ....


Nellie picked a $1 about a month ago ... obviously saw the writing on the wall

Lets see Monday

[Mr_p_yu]

Winner69,

I could have told you the same thing 6 months ago, but I have just decided to shut up and let all those who have disagreed with me suffer a little before I give them my wise words.

Don't care about BGR as well as RBD and WHS.

[Runswifscissors]

quote:Originally posted by Mr_p_yu

Winner69,

I could have told you the same thing 6 months ago, but I have just decided to shut up and let all those who have disagreed with me suffer a little before I give them my wise words.

Don't care about BGR as well as RBD and WHS.
OK own up! Just WHO is it on Sharetrader who is going to suffer if Mr_p_yu shuts up? I want names here!

THE KING says 69 if yer doing NOTHING yer making NOTHING.. [^][^][^]

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by Mr_p_yu

Winner69,

I could have told you the same thing 6 months ago, but I have just decided to shut up and let all those who have disagreed with me suffer a little before I give them my wise words.

Don't care about BGR as well as RBD and WHS.


yes I have to agree MR_P_YU that PRG is far more interesting than these 3.
BTW ,you're the most entertaining poster ,or is it just my bad sense of humour[8)]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Sorry H9 - prob allowed for Bling Bling coming in boots and all and putting a floor under the price and stopping it getting down to 107

Bling bling seems to be into recovery stories but its Gryff I feel sorry for


I have been waiting for over a year and still have not put my little toes in yet. I have a funny feeling this puppy may yet go below $1. Everyone bought into BGR during IPO expecting a growth story. I am still waiting for some positive ground level changes to BGR before I buy the shares. The problems of BGR has been identified awhile back, but why has there been no new strategies to fix those problems? WHS and BGR both wasting money on "BIG SALE" advertising campaigns.

Martha Steward can teach BGR a thing or two about marketing. Either BGR has a crap marketing firm advicing them or Duke is not up with the play.

Skellerup with Levens is still fresh in my minds. Dont think large retails are safe as houses. I am not comparing BGR and Skellerup, but I am more careful these days.

[Nigel]

Ouch. Down to 4.12 so far this morning. Looks to be finding some support though and sellers are drying up. If a big seller decides to enter the game then it could certainly move further south.
How far do you think it could go?

THE KING says Nigel you can have all of my HOLDING $4.12.. [^]

[winner69]

KING mate ... I am disappointed in you ... fancy selling 1 million of your shares ... and at 110 as well

[Gryffyn]

Yikes. That's some downwards action.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says last time DUKE spoke to me he did not bring up the SUBJECT.. [^][^]


KING, has Mr Duke been telling you FIBS?

[rawdata]

Over-promising and under-delivering - that's Mr Rod Duke with Briscoes over the last 3 years.

Funny how often and willingly some punters are happy to let him lead them on and on.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by rawdata


Over-promising and under-delivering - that's Mr Rod Duke with Briscoes over the last 3 years.

Funny how often and willingly some punters are happy to let him lead them on and on.


Not always the case. Bought at IPO :)sold two days later at $1.41 net.
Looking to buy back in sub $1.00. Danger is it wil go private [V]before I'm given the chance to make hay.

[rawdata]

The IPO was the only time that Duke had a forecast which was exceeded. Since the first upgrade, it has been down, down ...

Privatisation? Hell will freeze over before Duke (reknown in the industry for being tight) buys back shares BGR sold to the market at $1.00 - unless BGR is trading at well below $1.00.

[whatsup]

Rawdata, Good to see you back, although not always correct good to see/read your comments, keep it up.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by rawdata


The IPO was the only time that Duke had a forecast which was exceeded. Since the first upgrade, it has been down, down ...

Privatisation? Hell will freeze over before Duke (reknown in the industry for being tight) buys back shares BGR sold to the market at $1.00 - unless BGR is trading at well below $1.00.


Thanks rawdata. I take it you're saying I won't get a look in to buy cheap.

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

I think $1 looks pretty much on target for BGR. I don't own these shares, i was going to buy at 1.30 but i am glad i didn't. (Deep breath)

The one thing that i do know is that thier advertiisng is the worse retail i have ever experienced. There TV is becoming very similar to that of the Warehouse and they seam very good at cheapening there rebel sports brand even more. Lets face it who wants to buy a cheap sports gear. Not saying they do sell it- but this is the perception they give consumers. People want quality, not always a cheap price.

Briscoes is similar- it dosn't know it's own postion in the market. There advertising offers consumers nothing. Even though there products might be ok. Also it's about perception. There advertiisng sits very closely with RBD's, so if you own them I would be asking similar questions.[xx(]

THE KING says Thanks leanie it take as to read your name as what yer got to SAY.. [^][^][^]

THE KING says ROCK what are yer really trying to tell,, that you did BUY.. [^] but now REGRET..[^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

This downgrade was less $6.1 million to $17.5m. The share price at $1.14 has PE 13.8x. If there is another downgrade of say another $5m to $12.5m will make $1.14 look very expensive with PE 19.3x. The real question is will there be another downgrade?

[halcyon9]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Ah C9 - ya should've sold MHI when they hit $6 quickly a few months ago. Sure, they've crept a little some since then but that was a long time going sideways and I think they'll do that some more now.

BGR has some good recovery in it.



double OUCH!

[halcyon9]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says willie should be back to $1.80 in that time frame its the mood of the invester that will change. :D[8D]:D

Watching from Australia. THE KING




where is WILLY

bring back WILLY

how are WILLYs pants now?

[rawdata]

quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by rawdata


The IPO was the only time that Duke had a forecast which was exceeded. Since the first upgrade, it has been down, down ...

Privatisation? Hell will freeze over before Duke (reknown in the industry for being tight) buys back shares BGR sold to the market at $1.00 - unless BGR is trading at well below $1.00.


Thanks rawdata. I take it you're saying I won't get a look in to buy cheap.


If Duke does another over-promise and under-deliver, you will see BGR at under $1.00. Given his track record, that is likely.

If Duke can get the shares that BGR issued at the time of the float at $1.00, he might privatise. Don't count on it as he already has total control of BGR - he is one tight individual.

[halcyon9]

King says this [^][^]

but feels this:(:([:I]

[winner69]

Wonder if that 1 million share sale sale was that top 10 shareholder holding exactly that amount ... chances are it was

If was must be one pissed off guy .... probably giving Rod an earful for leading him up the garden path and not delivering on the hype he created.

Probably got them at $1 anyway so slightly ahead of the game but not much return over the last few years.

As an aside still pretty high margin expectations if BGR are to make $17M this year ... esp every ad seems to be 50% off and we haven't even got to Boxing day and New Year and Aniversary Day sales yet.

[winner69]

Hope it wasn't ... that shareholder is Stuart Johnstone and he is a director

[lambton]

Thanks again rawdata. I have a strong feeling that BGR could be a good plaything next year. But needs to go sub $ IMO.

[Bling_Bling]

This pup needs to be below $1 before Bling looks at it.

[Oracle]

I wouldn't buy them, no matter what the price.

I believe that Rebel is a flawed concept in NZ. The sports trade is difficult, with declining participation..e.g raquet sports. Perhaps its like WHS in Aus, does the market want or need, "big." Rebel costs must be a real problem. "Small, & specialist" must be better.

The high volume lines, footware & clothing, have immense competition, from specialty shops, Warehouse etc.
In golf they are inferior in product & price, to a number of golf discounters, & they do not have the quality of pro shops.
Their supposed discount policy, from my observation, was exaggerated. Usually off a high base, only an average result.
Do their staff have the knowledge of the owner-operator?
The location of the Porirua is store is not good. Little foot traffic. I would think location is very important, as why would you go out of your way, to a Rebel store?

Briscoes, obviously in a very competitve environment.

All this is old hat. I cannot see an easy way out! All IMHO.

[hesiod]

Oracle I tend to agree. Was hoping for a Stirling Announcement to bump the price to then offload - this has been my disaster stock.But useful lessons.
I wonder if they had that in line then the profit figures have stuffed the finance arrangements. Other players for that Marque - possibly the sportworld franchise - although theytend to share the same territory in my part of the world (waikato/bop).
Perhaps they'll try and starve it down in price or value and pass on it ? Anyway suspect Duke may well be trying to hold the market up.

Merry (up to) 50 % off Xmas.


No ssh for the million yesterday hmmm...

[Bling_Bling]

Another 1 million shares done today at $1.05.

Wonder who is buying? Or is it someone covering their short position?

[Placebo]

Sorry to disagree but I actually think Rebel is a winning concept. It has a mixture of high- and low-volume lines, high priced specialty gear and cheap knock-offs. It's also attempting (with some success IMHO) to be a one-stop-shop for all sports gear. In that respect, and having knocked Stirling out of the market, it's doing a fine job.

I agree they have competition in the clothing and footwear stakes, but they make up for that with size and by loss-leading on older product lines.

I don't see that there's any less people involved in sport now, it's just that the choice of sport is much wider and so the numbers are spread more thinly. I take part in a "minority" sport, I know what I'm looking for and in my case at least, Rebel always has the equipment I need and usually at a very competitive (if not the best) price.

Rebel is the winner in the PRG portfolio. It's Briscoes that doesn't know what it wants to be.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Another 1 million shares done today at $1.05.

Wonder who is buying? Or is it someone covering their short position?


Outside of Duke there aren't many who have a million to sell .... but they seem pretty keen to get out .... 110 yesterday and 105 today ... wonder how many more to come

Found a buyer though

[Bling_Bling]

Winner, do you have a shareholders list handy and tell us who is selling and how many they have left to sell?

[Shamrock]

If I was short on BGR right now I wouldn't be exiting that position.

[halcyon9]

quote:Originally posted by cloudnine

Bad timing Gryf...

You traded a greyhound for a mut...
look what happens...MHI $6.20;)


look at the 1 year charts

PERFECT opposites...


and all the while, a little King keeps smiling a lunatic smile and wondering how to use his dusty abacus for BGRs NEW;) FWD PER.




King...where art thou?

[halcyon9]

Placebo, This Oracle works backwards...

nowhere to be seen for the first 10 pages when the King and Willy were trying to ramp this one up from $1.51. It's always the same...watch all the "wise" ones come out when the stock has already been beaten down:D:D:D:D:D

As for sport participation falling in NZ...Rubbish!


the young generation have traded in the rackets for...

TRIATHELONS
SNOWBOARDING
MOUNTAINBIKING
SURFING
WAKEBOARDING

it's not falling...it's evolving, x-sports.

get with it Oracle

[Onthemoney]

Hoping to pick some of these up at under $1.00.... Have met Rod Duke and would expect him to ride this out....

Their big downfall has been their 'one off' sales. So regular now why buy on another day at full price. Stores are near to empty on non sale days.

[Onthemoney]

Rocking - 'when the going get tough the tough get...

[Onthemoney]

or f*cked over.....

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by halcyon9



the young generation have traded in the rackets for...

TRIATHELONS
SNOWBOARDING
MOUNTAINBIKING
SURFING
WAKEBOARDING

it's not falling...it's evolving, x-sports.

get with it Oracle


You could add iPods, xBoxes, Playstations, Cell phones, Stereos for boy racer cars, Bling Bling, etc, etc........ Young kiddies are not buying Nike Air Jordans like they used to.

[Bling_Bling]

Bubble Boy, I am not for sale, thank you.... :D

[michael_l_c]

i was in briscoes st lukes yday. one till open & i was the sixth customer waiting. when i got to the till there were 12 customers behind me. i only go there for a particular item on a very good special. not a receipe to encourage customers or to make profit.

[Shamrock]

That is true for most Briscoes I've been to. Quick, friendly customer service is sooo underrated in New Zealand.

Queues are not cool. They actually hurt the bottom line as well. If I am in a hurry, I will go to a store where I will get served quickly, even if I have to pay slightly more. Until Briscoes learn this, they will struggle.

(And for supermarkets, Foodstuffs outlets leave Woolworths-owned ones for dead in my experience)

[SueJ]

Briscoes Botany Downs at 9:30 pm yesterday - four checkouts open and long queues. The store was busier than I've seen it for yonks, but then they were having a one-day deep-discount sale. I was there to buy a $350 vacuum cleaner for $210.

Re supermarkets, I agree, Foodstuffs knocks Progressive into the weeds. Unfortunately it's a grocers' cooperative, you can't buy a piece! I've been to their Silverstream office & they really do the humble, dowdy co-op atmosphere beautifully well.

THE KING says What this said in the Dominpost by Mr James Weir :
BRISCOE stores enjoyed " absolute bedlam " with big crowds for sales on Boxing Day.. thats the type of news that makes SMILES..[^][^]

King not if they are selling below cost to get rid off stock.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

King not if they are selling below cost to get rid off stock.


Enigma ... surely not? they don't sell things at below cost do they?

I thought the really prices was to get people into the store .... more so than to get rid of surplus stock

THE KING says Big E do you have Proof that they SELL below cost other wise thay would have CLOSED the door`s a long time AGO.. [^][^]

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says What this said in the Dominpost by Mr James Weir :
BRISCOE stores enjoyed " absolute bedlam " with big crowds for sales on Boxing Day.. thats the type of news that makes SMILES..[^][^]


Thought you would learn by now that Rod Duke is all talk and promises. This guy has no credibility.

THE KING says Shareperson would you mind if your statement is forwarded to THE DUKE love to hear what he would say and would you like to leave a name for REPLY.. [^][^]

[Sky Tower]

DNICHOLLS says shareperson should disclose whether he is a sharebroker and which sharebroking firm he/she/it works for, if any, under the doctrine of relevant disclosure

[Sharebroker]

No point being sensitive and emotional, folks. This is stating a fact - Rod Duke promises and promises better after each result and after each downgrade - and BGR fails to deliver time and time again. That's why the share price is where it is - the guy's credibility is long gone (save with those who are too myopic to see.

THE KING says Shareperson thats you own total opinion so if your right could you match him dollar to dollar in your BIS.. [^][^]

[Sky Tower]

certainly I would not be a shareholder of BGR or WHS myself. If you wanted exposure to the retail sector you will do better with other retail stocks
however one hopes that DNICHOLLS is a little more circumspect with his postings particularly when references are made to particular individuals.
I note that WHS has had a smallish sort of recoverry of late but I still wouldnt be there.
BGR i dont think has done well this Xmas season, Briscoes is known for its kitchenware and manchester but these are not sexy xmas presents. Both Briscoes and Rebel have been hurt by the constant sales. That strategy is no longer effective.

[Sharebroker]

Nothing worse than a person sinking into quicksand but insisting that he is on dry land - that's the king, it appears.

Enough said - the share price of BGR tells all.

THE KING says not in Quicksand at all, as a Shareperson thats the BIS all money and a BIG mouth.. [^][^]

[Sharebroker]

And of course, Elvis is still alive and living in NZ. He also shops at Briscoe. :D

THE KING says heard all these one liners long time ago, its the size of your mouth that COUNTS.. [^][^]

[Sharebroker]

That's why Rod Duke has a BIG mouth and an ever smaller share price. You like that, don't you, king?

Elvis apprently shops at Rebel too - he particularly likes the fact that there's sales all the time despite a new strategy of not discounting by BGR. :D

[Sky Tower]

Sharebroker:
Don't you have some "sharebroking" activities to do today. Or are things a little quiet in your Auckland office today?

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by dnicholls

Sharebroker:
Don't you have some "sharebroking" activities to do today. Or are things a little quiet in your Auckland office today?


What sharebroking ativity? I am having lunch with Elvis and we are discussing the merits of buying those big towels (to mop up his swaet to throw at the ladies during his performances) at Briscoe versus Farmers. We decided Farmers as there's no bs pricing there.

[Sky Tower]

certainly it would be good to see Farmers as a listed entity again. Lets hope someone at James Pascoe Limited is listening :D

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by dnicholls

certainly it would be good to see Farmers as a listed entity again. Lets hope someone at James Pascoe Limited is listening :D


Agreed. Shopped at Farmers leading to Christmas and was impressed by the new layout and goods on display. Sales people were cheerful and helpful as well. Prices were reasonable without being on sale. Contrast that with Briscoe where goods were on sale at 30% and were still same price as Farmers! You can only use that trick for so long as Rebel Sports has found out.

Would be good if Progressive Enterprises relist here as well!

[Sky Tower]

I must admit to being a loyal Farmers customer. The stores always look good compared to WHS, the stock is reasonable and reasonably priced without being junky (WHS again), they have only a few well timed sales each year and there is something about getting everything on the one bill ie your groceries (foodtown) your petrol (mobil) and all your shopping on the one bill, Farmers Card. (Farmers, Michael Hill and lots of other places.

Being a sharebroker (apparently) Im sure you are well placed to increase the number of quality listings on the NZX. A few SOEs (Meridian, NZ Post/Kiwibank) would be good as well :D

Winner 69 both Some are loss leaders others are take what you can before it gets even older and others are marked up 300% so that you can take 50% off and still make 100% the vacuum cleaner somebody was raving over a few days back sounds like one of the latter. It would have to be a very good vacuum cleaner in an appliance store to be worth more than $200.00

[Sharebroker]

Anyone here notice any change to BGR's strategy since Rod Duke told the market way back in March 2004 that BGR's discounting strategy was cheapening BGR's retail stores and a 'new' strategy was to be implemented to upgrade through brand differentiation! He was also going to take Briscoes into territory BGR's competitors cannot follow. Anyone figure out if BGR has any marketing strategy beyond 30%, 40% or 50% off?

Hope he didn't pay any consultant big bucks to come up with all that gooblegook because it has just gone out through the window.

As the jingle goes - 'Briscoes, you can buy the shares cheaper and cheaper!'

Briscoes Puts Together A New Image
26/03/2004 08:42 AM - Kelly Sinoski - The Independent

Briscoe Group Ltd will drop its weekly "slash and burn" sales in favour of bigger and less frequent blowouts in a bid to boost its image and lift its profit margin.

Group managing director Rod Duke concedes the practice of "dumping, trashing and selling at high discounts," particularly at Rebel Sport, had cheapened the company's image and resulted in lost profits. The company this year had reduced its inventory as part of a "conscious decision to limit the requirement for heavy discounting."

It has also launched a new television and colour catalogue campaign and is counting on its naming rights sponsorship of the Super 12 to lift Rebel Sport's profile in New Zealand.

The new strategy comes as Briscoe Group reported a $23.62 million after-tax profit for the year to 31 January, up slightly from $23.56 million a year earlier and ahead of predictions by directors of a 4% profit decline for the year.

Earnings were generated on $317.34 million operating revenue, up 6.6% on the $297.63 million in 2002, while gross profit increased 8.2% from $92.87 million to $100.53 million. Directors declared a dividend of 4.25 cents a share, bringing the total dividend for the year to 7 cents a share.

But while operating revenue, gross profit and ebit were ahead of 2002, the net profit after tax did not achieve equivalent gains because of lower interest income for 2003-04 and provisioning of an $0.45 million taxation expense relating to the amortisation of the final Rebel Sport franchise fee payment.

While same store sales at Briscoes Homeware grew 6.2% compared with last year, Rebel Sport's sales dropped by 2.9%. The results followed a bleak 2002 summer in which the company was "forced," Duke said, to dump much of its inventory.

A lack of exciting and "sexy" inventory at Rebel also had an impact, he said, by driving many shoppers, particularly those seeking no-name commodities, to stores such as The Warehouse.

The new strategy follows on the heels of a Colmar-Brunton poll, which showed New Zealanders prefer Rebel Sport for sporting goods.

"There's no question the retail environment is under significant pressure.

It's more competitive and the discounting by our competitors has, in fact, impacted on our business," he said.

"Our two main competitors chose to dump stock. I can understand if you fail in overseas ventures you require the mother ship to pick up the slack ... it's just disappointing if you're caught in the crossfire."

The company is planning to revamp both Rebel Sport and Briscoe Group to redefine its market position as homeware and sporting goods specialist through its range and high quality products. Duke says the change is critical to appeal to more savvy and discerning shoppers who are barraged every day with offers of up to 50% off the regular price.

"We cheapened Rebel Sport by constantly discounting, by being on sale all the time," he said. "Brand separation is the key objective. We want to reinforce our unassailable position that no one's got more sport than Rebel Sport."

Meanwhile, Briscoes Homeware will change its philosophy, with everyday prices at or below those of its competitors and more glamour in its advertisements, he said.

"We're going to take Briscoes into territory our competitors cannot follow.

[Steve]

When I think about it, I can't say that I have actually noticed that much of a difference in their approach.

Anyone else?

[winner69]

Quiet day on the NZX but big volume day for BGR ... and the price didn't do much and closed at 112

Wonder if the larger parcels sold today was more of that seller last week who got rid of millions.

Rereading that article about the change in marketing approach is a real revelation in hindsight.

The huge amounts that BGR must have spent over the last few weeks on advertising (all about heavy discounting and no branding as such) one would have to think all the raving early in the year was another of Rod's porkies

Another reason could be that the competition is tougher than Rod thought and to meet market expectations he was forced into his old ways.

[Sharebroker]

I read that bit about bedlam at Briscoes and again you can see Rod Duke's big mouth running away from him. I popped over to Rebels on boxing day (after spending some $$$ at Harvey Norman) and there was no long queue, no rush and few customers. And it was 20% off everything in store.

Strange why he keeps trying to talk the stock up - must mean he has no intentions whatsoever of privatising it. Must be his big ego taking a battering like the share price that he doesn't like - especially on the golf course. He cannot boast about how great a retailer he is, see?

[huds]

Sharebroker - Disgruntled former employee??

[Sky Tower]

huds - I think so! Sharebroker is quite the mystery man

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Shareperson would you mind if your statement is forwarded to THE DUKE love to hear what he would say and would you like to leave a name for REPLY.. [^][^]


Please be my guest and forward said comments (and this thread) to Rod Duke and BGR's BOD (is there one?)- they may learn something about making promises and more important, delivering on promises.

Meanwhile, the name is Broker, Share Broker at the market's service. ;)

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by huds

Sharebroker - Disgruntled former employee??


The name is Broker, Share Broker at the market's service. No need to be suspicious. ;)

Stock is trading on a forecast PER of 13.6 times - with declining eps. Stocks with negative eps should trade on PER below 10. One suspects that the institutions are selling out and it's retail investors hoping in as per usual believing that BGR is cheap at $1.13 because it was $2.80 a few years ago.

THE KING says Well Shareperson you got the Sack well head straight to Work & Income but give them your REAL name.. [^][^]

[Sky Tower]

Sharebroker do I know you ? Do you work for one of the five major sharebroking firms?

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Well Shareperson you got the Sack well head straight to Work & Income but give them your REAL name.. [^][^]


Is that the best you can come up with? Pathetic, isn't it, Elvis? :D
Let's go back to the beginning of the thread and read your wondrous assessment of BGR :

'THE KING says BGR did not have its own thread but its arrived now,
noted good turnover today 614,00 + some body likes it could be Gerry Harvy they are come div so at $1.54 = $1.49 not bad.'

Well Elvis, what do you think? BGR down 23% so far against a market that went up by 23% - underperformance by 46%. That's what believing in big mouth DUKE has got the fake king - an ever smaller share price.

[Sky Tower]

I can never understand people who sit and watch a stock fall. Surely you would have a 10 % rule. or similiar (15%, 20% whatever). If a stock moves against you say 10 % you are out and it stops further downside. And stop loss orders are just the perfect way of achieving this.

If you are still a shareholder in BGR or WHS you must be a seriously long term investor :D

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by dnicholls

I can never understand people who sit and watch a stock fall. Surely you would have a 10 % rule. or similiar (15%, 20% whatever). If a stock moves against you say 10 % you are out and it stops further downside. And stop loss orders are just the perfect way of achieving this.

If you are still a shareholder in BGR or WHS you must be a seriously long term investor :D


It's what separates the money makers from the money losers. Blind faith saw punters followed RBD's share price down, down, down even as the fundamentals on the stock went south.

Likewise, BGR. How about that product differentiation strategy again, Duke?

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Shareperson would you mind if your statement is forwarded to THE DUKE love to hear what he would say and would you like to leave a name for REPLY.. [^][^]


Please be my guest and forward said comments (and this thread) to Rod Duke and BGR's BOD (is there one?)- they may learn something about making promises and more important, delivering on promises.

Meanwhile, the name is Broker, Share Broker at the market's service. ;)


king, let us know what duke says. And a reminder just for you : Big mouth = small share price. ;)

THE KING says Well Shareperson 9 you OWE Tax as well, on CHECKING.. [^][^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

I will defend the right of the people to hold on to shares like this, and ride them down. The right of them not to have a stop loss in play, or the common sense to think it might be a necessity. People like this the ones that buy in because it is cheaper today than yesterday, are the people that keep the market alive and running. We the vultures on the side exploit their stupidity. Keep investing in the doggies guys you will prove us all wrong with one of them sooner or later. macdunk

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Well Shareperson 9 you OWE Tax as well, on CHECKING.. [^][^][^]


Tell us what duke says, good obedient follower. ;)

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

I will defend the right of the people to hold on to shares like this, and ride them down. The right of them not to have a stop loss in play, or the common sense to think it might be a necessity. People like this the ones that buy in because it is cheaper today than yesterday, are the people that keep the market alive and running. We the vultures on the side exploit their stupidity. Keep investing in the doggies guys you will prove us all wrong with one of them sooner or later. macdunk


Agreed. There's no law against stupidity. ;)

THE KING says Well S9 you given yourself away a restart Person but writing the way you DO ,, Regards you are a BORER.. BYE..[^][^][^]

[Sharebroker]

46% down against the market. Let us know what the duke says, kingi.

You forwarded the comments to him yet? Come on, dare you too. ;)

[Sky Tower]

sharebroker: another quiet day in your sharebroking office eh?

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by dnicholls

sharebroker: another quiet day in your sharebroking office eh?


Just having another jelly peanut sandwich here with Elvis with root beer. He reckons the weather here reminds him of his hit song 'Blue Christmas.':D

I guess kingi is not going to forward said comments to duke huh? More's the pity really. Duke could learn from the comments in contrast to all the 'yes' men (like king) around him. ;)

[Longtack]

Elvis and I prefer [u]peanut butter and jelly </u>sandwiches.

Who dares Wins. (S.A.S motto amongst others no doubt.)

Pedantry over for today.;)[:p]

THE KING says Longer as you talk only S H I T... [^][^][^]

[Longtack]

Your Majesty - To whom is your response directed?[?][:0]

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by Longtack

Your Majesty - To whom is your response directed?[?][:0]


Not to worry - he's sulking as duke has let him down with BGR down 46% against the market. Ouch!

'Blue, blue, blue suede shoes, you can do anything but buy blue suede shoes at Rebel!' That's product differentiation for you. ;)

[duncan macgregor]

Remember the good old days when we only had end of season sales. The dopes have wrecked their own industry with continuous sales. Who would want to invest in an industry like that. macdunk

[Sharebroker]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Remember the good old days when we only had end of season sales. The dopes have wrecked their own industry with continuous sales. Who would want to invest in an industry like that. macdunk


I think it's called 'manuring in your own nest'. MHI and HLG do well because they stick to their knitting and basic strategy - no fancy stuff with genuine low prices, and genuine end of season sales.

What is BGR's strategy?

Has it got a strategy?

Why spend millions sponsoring Super 12 Rugby to lift BGR's image and still discount at every opportunity?

Why is Duke sitting on cash when there have been plenty of retail assets BGR could have bought in the last 3 years? If he is a retailer, he would have bought BBQ factory for eg and add value - that's what Hellaby has been doing and has done successfully.

Answers? BGR is a confused retailer - it has so buggered up its image that you would not be caught dead buying a gift from BGR as it cheapens the gift. BGR has bought no other retail operations because BGR knows it hasn't got real expertise in brand building.

So the stock has nowhere to go - trading on a forecast PER of 13.4X with negative eps growth. Whaere is the upside from here?

[Sky Tower]

there isn't any upside in BGR. Point well made mr sharebroker.

[patsy]

It is hard to see what's the competitive advantage of this company. Either as an investor or a customer, I can't figure out what may be unique about BGR, other than the 50% sales at Rebel Sports.

BGR does not have volume procurement muscle or any really optimised value-chain to be able to drive margins. To make things worse, they seem to have cut down on item range to the point that stores like the one at Albany Megacenter or at the Atrium on Elliot are clearly showing a very poor utilisation of floor space - too much premise for a relatively narrow range. It seems they've realised that having thousands of items (as Briscoes used to have at Albany) is not a recipe for success in a small market like NZ (as WHS have come to terms with) - but they went to the other extreme to the point now that the infrastructure does not appear to be sized to limited range.

[Longtack]

I can still see Rod Duke on the telly just after the float, commenting on the rapid s.p. rise, saying he was surprised.
He must have been pooping himself about how he was going to live up to the mkts expectations, or wetting himself with laughter![:p]

[Sky Tower]

Certainly Im beginning to doubt he is a sharebroker. But he does seem to have quite a dislike for Rod Duke. Any particular reason Mr Sharebroker?

Anyway a sharebroker is about the last thing we need on this site,

[Sharebroker]

dnicholls - Judge not a book by its cover, or by its cover, yee be judged.

Nothing personal against Rod Duke but he took a high profile leading to, during and after the IPO boasting about how great he was and how he was giving the company away etc. Investors have entrusted him with their money and he hasn't delivered. Worse, he has promised plenty and delivered little.

Contrast that Tindall who always attributed the Warehouse success to his management team and staff - when the Warehouse sp was zooming upwards.

[Sky Tower]

sharebroker: are you an NZX accredited adviser (or what in the old days was a licensed sharebroker)? do you work for an NZX firm? or did you just come up with a nick no one else here was silly enough to use? [:p]

[Steve]

What are your thoughts on Rod Duke increasing his stake by getting the shares being off-loaded by Al Wall, given that the profit warning was released 2 weeks later?

Was it a good move on his part? Surely he must have known that it was coming, so could he have not purchased on-market later?

[duncan macgregor]

STEVE, My thoughts are who cares as long as i dont have to buy any. macdunk

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

What are your thoughts on Rod Duke increasing his stake by getting the shares being off-loaded by Al Wall, given that the profit warning was released 2 weeks later?

Was it a good move on his part? Surely he must have known that it was coming, so could he have not purchased on-market later?



"Rod, I'm selling my shares." "Oh sh-t Alistair that wont do the share price any good. I don't want any more at the moment but I'd better buy them so you don't spook the market."

[Sky Tower]

Has the sharebroker been silenced I ask ?

[winner69]

and the sharebrokers thread about window dressing has gone as well

[Sky Tower]

Does anyone know who the sharebroker actually is/was and where he works?

[saintjohn]

Does it matter? informed, opinionated, educated people is what makes ST tick.

Most of the time anyway.

[Sky Tower]

so true. you are right - it doesnt matter.

THE KING says "HAPPY NEW YEAR" to all of my NZ mates and THE DUKE..
[^][^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by biker
"Rod, I'm selling my shares." "Oh sh-t Alistair that wont do the share price any good. I don't want any more at the moment but I'd better buy them so you don't spook the market."


Why does he want to hold up the price?

[Halebop]

Holders will be happy to know I was given some Briscoes vouchers for Christmas. An extra $100 for the register. Not sure I can stomach going in for the New Year sales so you might get some higher margin revenues out of me!

On the Duke share price conspiracy theory I think he would profit more from a low ball privatisation offer than an higher (and illusionary) net worth. So I suspect the only deal being done was between Rod and Alistair, not Rod and the market.

[Steve]

I dropped into Rebel Sports this arvo and it was DEAD quiet - about 4 others in the shop, not counting the 8ish staff! [xx(]

Briscoes next door was not much busier...

Was looking at getting back into BGR last month if it got back to 125c, but glad that I didn't place that order.

[Fish Broker]

Yes, the store was VERY quiet when we went there yesterday after leaving the Warehouse (without buying anything , see my posting on THe Warehouse thread).

At lease the staff were friendly and helpful, and the store was tidy and organised, not the complete shambles that seems to typify a Warehouse these days.

One thing that concerns me with Briscoes however is the cash they are sitting on - that must be dragging down their returns - if the Duke cannot find anything to buy then shouldn't he return the capital to shareholders??

I understand from a friend who used to work in Management that he wont buy something unless he gets it for a steal - (contrast steal with good value) and maybe if this is correct, we might have our explanation why the cash is still unspent - I suspect they have looked but not been able to secure a deal. Not helpful to shareholders however.

[whiteheron]

Have just been looking at a BGR chart for the last two years
The share price has dropped from $2.80 to $1.12 , a reduction of $1.68 or 60 %

How is that for a loser ???!!!

[Sharebroker]

Fish Broker,

Your friend is bang on with his assessment of Rod Duke's approach to acquiring another business - he wants to steal it. But there's a greater implication behind his approach that the market is waking up to - Rod Duke knows he cannot add value beyond discounts, discounts and more discounts. Hence, the need to steal businesses if he can.

Unfortunately for Rod Duke, the days of stealing businesses in NZ were over a few years ago with any number of buyers being other retailers, investment companies (eg. Hellabys) and private equity funds all keen to buy good retail businesses on PEs of 7 or 8. Rod Duke has openly told analysts that he wants to buy businesses on 4 or 5 PE multiples.

Examples in recent times of retail operations being sold include Bond & Bond/Noel Leeming, Farmers, and BBQ Factory. All excellent opportunities for value creation.

Why the difference between BGR and other buyers?

Well, the other buyers are prepared to offer fair value because they can inject further capital and more important, expertise to add value to the acquired businesses.

Rod Duke's track record with BGR shows that he has no strategy beyond rampant discounting.

If you had a choice as a manufacturer, would you sell anything with brand value through BGR? You are guaranteed a one way ticket to brand marginalisation.

By the way, you know that you can steal buy Paul Holmes's special CD at Briscoe for $1.00? :D

[Sky Tower]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker
By the way, you know that you can steal buy Paul Holmes's special CD at Briscoe for $1.00? :D




and even at $1.00 that CD is overpriced.
and here I was thinking Fishbroker and Sharebroker were one of the same person.

[croesus]

Bollocks........ Track 5 Makes it a bargain, if you are a Crusaders Fan

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling


quote:Originally posted by biker
"Rod, I'm selling my shares." "Oh sh-t Alistair that wont do the share price any good. I don't want any more at the moment but I'd better buy them so you don't spook the market."


Why does he want to hold up the price?

Ego, and a low price privatisation would be a public admission and proof, of failure.

[Onthemoney]

I think you will find that Allister Wall is one of the longest standing members of the Briscoes Team try over 25 years....

[Steve]

Given that Al Wall cashed out a number of shares immediately before the profit downgrade, could he have possibly known that the share price was going to get hammered once the announcement was made???

[Onthemoney]

Isn't he the financial controller?

[Steve]

So, he should have known as he would compile the information that is given to the directors?

Selling before the announcement, if he knew it was coming, would be INSIDER TRADING?!

What are the rules for senior management who are not directors?

[Onthemoney]

I think we should be asking M Weldon.....

[Steve]

Does one need to be a shareholder to question?

[Onthemoney]

If there is anything untoward anybody can question....

[Steve]

On another note, I notice that Rebel Sport now has a finance option for golf clubs & gym equipment etc. I'm not sure how long it has been available, but worth mentioning.

Possibly taking note of the success other retailers have had from having a finance side?!

[Onthemoney]

Big money to be made in this check out PRG

[Steve]

and SCY...

[Onthemoney]

SCY I think they rely on it check out SCY thread....

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker

Fish Broker,

Your friend is bang on with his assessment of Rod Duke's approach to acquiring another business - he wants to steal it. But there's a greater implication behind his approach that the market is waking up to - Rod Duke knows he cannot add value beyond discounts, discounts and more discounts. Hence, the need to steal businesses if he can.

Unfortunately for Rod Duke, the days of stealing businesses in NZ were over a few years ago with any number of buyers being other retailers, investment companies (eg. Hellabys) and private equity funds all keen to buy good retail businesses on PEs of 7 or 8. Rod Duke has openly told analysts that he wants to buy businesses on 4 or 5 PE multiples.

Examples in recent times of retail operations being sold include Bond & Bond/Noel Leeming, Farmers, and BBQ Factory. All excellent opportunities for value creation.

Why the difference between BGR and other buyers?

Well, the other buyers are prepared to offer fair value because they can inject further capital and more important, expertise to add value to the acquired businesses.

Rod Duke's track record with BGR shows that he has no strategy beyond rampant discounting.

If you had a choice as a manufacturer, would you sell anything with brand value through BGR? You are guaranteed a one way ticket to brand marginalisation.

By the way, you know that you can steal buy Paul Holmes's special CD at Briscoe for $1.00? :D




Whatever one thinks of Rods strategy and performsnce BGR will return $17M NPAT this year .... from $90M of capital.

If we assume that $30M of the capital is dead money BGR is making about $15M from $60M of capital

Pretty fantastic performance really

So wouldn't BGR be wanting to invest the $30M in something that is likely to make the same sort of returns?

Even with leverage buying at 'unreasonable' multiples would be marginalising the BGR business to some extent ... which forces Rod into wanting to 'steal' a business

Interesting what what people see as fair or reasonable value though. Punters queue up to buy WHS at 20 times earnings and even buy BGR at 13-14 times earnings ... not to mention MHI, HLG etc ... but think Rod is stingy and mean when he is only prepared to pay a 'stingy' amount for any prospective purchase

Maybe a sign that the market (or at least retail stocks) is actually overvalued .... when those with real money are looking at returns in excess of 15%

On that performance (high ROIC) mentioned above sounds like BGR is a fantastic company .... maybe not but making good returns .... but NOT worth a market cap of $250M

[Sharebroker]

W69, will not disagree with you that $17.3m NPT (take out maybe $1.5 for interest income?) is still a good return on $60m capital.

But the real measure of a listed company is its market capitalisation.
Listed companies are priced on future growth and sustainable earnings primarily and the PER is a reasonable measure to compare companies with.

BGR has had deteriorating returns now over the last 2 years - in a buoyant retail environment. In other words, it has negative eps growth.

Why would you pay a PER of 13.4 times for a company whose earnings are going backwards?

And with an owner whose idea of trying to create value is to steal companies if he can? Doesn't that tell you something of the mentality of the individual - that he knows little of retail marketing and brand buying strategies beyond discounting?

There's a very simple reason why BGR did not buy the companies I mentioned - Farmers, Noel Leeming and BBQ factory.

[winner69]

Essentially agree with everything you say sharebroker and as you will not i did say that BGR is NOT worth the $240M the market values it now (ie a PE of 14)

Strategy of growing footprint being the driver of growth for the likes of WHS and BGR ain't working is it.

Amazing that in the 12 months to July BGR floorspace increased by 14,000 sqm (16%) yet sales went backwards ..... and more floorspace means higher cost doesn't it .... and that ongoing discounting ..... leads to that significant fall in profits

At best i see BGR becoming another RBD and some dividend play for the hopeful investor. The market seems prepared to pay 125-130 cents for the 10 cent RBD dividend so the 7 cent BGR dividend is only worth 87-90 cents

And with this years earnings at 8 cents no doubt the year end announcement will say we have confidence in the future so will maintain the dividend at 7 cents .... meaning dipping into that $30M to pay the dividend this year? and if sharebroker is right with declining eps dipping into that $30M again next year

[winner69]

The Gerry Harvey connection

HVN been one of the laggards of the ASX this year ... only up 5% when the market and most retailers have done well

Rumours that one of Gerry's best men to take over the international business (mainly NZ) because of ...?

Maybe that has been Gerry selling heavily his BGR shares lately.. pissed of with his mate Rod

[Bling_Bling]

Was at BGR store today looking for a shaver. All the shavers at the BGR store is locked up in a glass cabinet (Gods knows why). Went up to a staff member, ask her to unlock the cabinet to view the shavers, was then directed to another staff member. Had to go through three staff members and non seem to have the keys to open the glass cabinets. Bling Bling is now not a happy chappy having wasted 20 mins. So we went next door to Bond and Bond and bought one from them.

Bling is thinking of shorting BGR. What a Dog !

ps: Still more sales at BGR, this time it is called "Jan Sale" !

THE KING says the clap about the Gerry Harvey connection selling BGR THE KING noted today that Sir Tristan Antico died last week and had his service at St Mary`s Sydney,, he started Pioneer Concrete which turned into a $3 Billion Bis but lost the lot with his horse trading and had to SELL his beloved Baramul Stud historic Widden Vally, Guese who bought it Billionaire Gerry Harvey $4 Million cash thats more than he has in BGR.. [^][^]

[Sharebroker]

Gerry Harvey knows you don't stick with companies which do not perform. Only issue is that he can't get out even if he wants to - share price will be 75 cents if Gerry tries to get out. :D

Heard back from Rod Duke yet, kingi? Would love to get his reaction to some home truths. [^]

THE KING says S9 back in NZ,,????..[^][^][^]

[Sharebroker]

Kingi, you have picked a stock which delivered minus 46% against the market in 2004. Don't act the idiot any more than you have to. Get the feedback from Rod Duke and see if he has any idea how to build a business and brand beyond discounting and more discounting.

Otherwise, worse is ahead for the stock - with no growth it should be trading on a PER of 10 times.

THE KING says S9 your Clap right down to Ye B U M... BYE..[^][^][^]

[Sharebroker]

Minus 46% against the market and still playing the idiot. Sad and tragic.

You all now know how to treat kingi's postings.

[Rif-Raf]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker

W69,

And with an owner whose idea of trying to create value is to steal companies if he can? Doesn't that tell you something of the mentality of the individual - that he knows little of retail marketing and brand buying strategies beyond discounting?


Whats wrong with creating value by buying assets cheap? Better than paying over the odds and acquiring a lemon.

[Sharebroker]

Your question, Rif-raf, was answered a few days ago. Here's the answer to what's wrong with Rod Duke trying to buy businesses by stealing them.

A realistic good businessman with real retail skills does not need to try and steal businesses to create value. He buys a good business at a fair price and then, through his expertise and skills, create value. Therein lies the difference.

That's why BGR's share is down 46% against the market in 2004, and a whopping 110% down against the market since Jan 2003!

And it still trades on a PER of 13.4 times with negative eps growth. So guess where the share price will be heading to next?


quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker

Fish Broker,

Your friend is bang on with his assessment of Rod Duke's approach to acquiring another business - he wants to steal it. But there's a greater implication behind his approach that the market is waking up to - Rod Duke knows he cannot add value beyond discounts, discounts and more discounts. Hence, the need to steal businesses if he can.

Unfortunately for Rod Duke, the days of stealing businesses in NZ were over a few years ago with any number of buyers being other retailers, investment companies (eg. Hellabys) and private equity funds all keen to buy good retail businesses on PEs of 7 or 8. Rod Duke has openly told analysts that he wants to buy businesses on 4 or 5 PE multiples.

Examples in recent times of retail operations being sold include Bond & Bond/Noel Leeming, Farmers, and BBQ Factory. All excellent opportunities for value creation.

Why the difference between BGR and other buyers?

Well, the other buyers are prepared to offer fair value because they can inject further capital and more important, expertise to add value to the acquired businesses.

Rod Duke's track record with BGR shows that he has no strategy beyond rampant discounting.

If you had a choice as a manufacturer, would you sell anything with brand value through BGR? You are guaranteed a one way ticket to brand marginalisation.

[Fish Broker]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


If you had a choice as a manufacturer, would you sell anything with brand value through BGR? You are guaranteed a one way ticket to brand marginalisation.
:D

I went to Briscoes today as we needed a new toaster - I purchased a ZIP brand one for $39 ("on special" from $99).

And the store was almost empty - about 5 or 6 other shoppers there and that was about 5:15 pm.

[Sharebroker]

Did you check the price first at Farmers or Warehouse? Might be only $34.95 there!

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

just witnessed a briscoes ad for a sale. joke, same old rubbish retail, cheaply priced products in a oversized stores with crap customer service. ads scream desperate. they should rebrand themselves as the the junk depot or else hire saatchis to rebrand themselves with ads that don't yell at ya to get ya ass into our store for a giveway. to many people throwing the same punches in this market.

these guys are the next R-Brands.

Leanmeanfightingmachine






quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


Did you check the price first at Farmers or Warehouse? Might be only $34.95 there!

THE KING says Thanks Longname for all that uselass INFORMATION..[^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


Did you check the price first at Farmers or Warehouse? Might be only $34.95 there!


Get a secondhand one from cash conversters for only $20. :D

[leanmeanfightingmachine]

Yea it's a touch long but you could try copy and paste. Specking of names THE KING is a little proud isn't it. Surprised you did not have it in speech marks. You would have to be a aussie to pick a name like that.

Briscoes adverts are a directly related to preformance. bad retail ads means bad sales. Pretty simple. Sometimes it's worth looking at other things than the numbers.




quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Thanks Longname for all that uselass INFORMATION..[^][^]

THE KING says THANKS AGAIN.. kiwi..[^][^]

THE KING says well if its not THE ROCK 2005 S H I T mouth just last YEAR.. [^][^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

I noticed that Levens is starting to spring up again. Will Levens compete head on with BGR?

THE KING says who is Levens.. [^][^][^]

[Sharebroker]

Who's Levene? Which is the stock which underperformed the NZX by 110% since Jan 2003?

THE KING says Well the head SLUG S9.. [^][^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

Levene used to be one of Skellerups stores. Skelly went bully up and the financiers took it over. This goes back years and years. But now Levene stores seems to be springing up in Auckland again.

THE KING says RIGHT.. [^]

Fish Broker ZIP brand used to be a premium brand. Got caught buying electric jug Zip brand now made for tin pot company owning the zip brand now. Almost only sold by Briscoes very poor quality. About the same quality as warehouse sells for about $8.00 (IE cheap & nasty House Brand)

[Fish Broker]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Fish Broker ZIP brand used to be a premium brand. Got caught buying electric jug Zip brand now made for tin pot company owning the zip brand now. Almost only sold by Briscoes very poor quality. About the same quality as warehouse sells for about $8.00 (IE cheap & nasty House Brand)


I just checked the warranty card - it says that Zip housewares are exclusively manufactured, imported and marketed by Spillanes Trading Co Ltd, which the companies office shows with an address at 25 Saleyards Rd, Otahuhu. - You are right Zip did used to be a premium brand.

Found an interesting article today on the Consumer.org.nz site regarding Briscoes. Apparently they had received so many complaints about (supposed) discounting tha they did a study last year that showed, among other things:

1. Briscoes regularly had the highest retail price in the market for household goods.

2. Briscoes discounted or specials were generally the cheapest price in the market.

The lesson - check around and if it isn't on special then it probably isn't cheap.

Can't wait for the 31/12 sales figures to come out...

[Sharebroker]

Kingi, you email to Rod Duke comments from this site yet - as you stated you would?

Ask him how he feels about being a 110% underperformer against the NZX. I am sure that he will be very appreciative of your support.

With dopey supporters, it's no wonder he's still discounting like mad and think that he's doing the right thing.

[Onthemoney]

levenes used to be a very successful hardware/paint store nothing to do with skellerup.... as far as I know

[winner69]

Old man Levene conned Skellerup into paying heaps for them ... and low behold they were in receivership in a few years

I think they are owned by Freedom Furniture now

How many stores in Auckland? and selling stuff like BGR are they

[Onthemoney]

He has a nice yacht I know that much.....

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Old man Levene conned Skellerup into paying heaps for them ... and low behold they were in receivership in a few years

I think they are owned by Freedom Furniture now

How many stores in Auckland? and selling stuff like BGR are they

Skellerup was financed with junk bonds and sructured by egomaniacs.I think old man Levene got what he could out of the business as was his right and I don't believe there was any conning on his part.The sellers of the bonds are another story.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by biker

Skellerup was financed with junk bonds and sructured by egomaniacs.I think old man Levene got what he could out of the business as was his right and I don't believe there was any conning on his part.The sellers of the bonds are another story.


Agreed Biker. Levene got what he could, which is fair enough. Who remembers most (if not all[?]) investment advisors recommending Skellerup JUNK bonds as if they were a quality investment.

A bit like the MPM IPO really - lets go on a SUCKER hunt. Oh, then there were those Metropolis bonds...

[Bling_Bling]

Watch out for the new look and hungry Levenes. They are looking to expand and take on BGR.

[winner69]

BGR up to 117 ... worst must be over and back to 140 again soon?

Obviously punters expect great things of BGR and rate them much higher than RBD

pay 130 for RBD's 10 cent dividend seems a fair deal (even if slightly risky) but 117 for BGR 7 cent dividend means there must be a lot of expected improvement in BGRs performance

Using RBD as a benchmark BGR's 7 cents should only be worth 90 cents

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Watch out for the new look and hungry Levenes. They are looking to expand and take on BGR.


Where are these hungry Levenes?

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

BGR up to 117 ... worst must be over and back to 140 again soon?

Obviously punters expect great things of BGR and rate them much higher than RBD

pay 130 for RBD's 10 cent dividend seems a fair deal (even if slightly risky) but 117 for BGR 7 cent dividend means there must be a lot of expected improvement in BGRs performance

Using RBD as a benchmark BGR's 7 cents should only be worth 90 cents


Personally I can not see any reason to believe that 117 is a sustainable share price, things are not getting any better at Briscoes, and there appears to be no attempt to try anything different.
Briscoes and the Warehouse ought to sell each others shares :)

[duncan macgregor]

Levenes was a very successfull business that i used to deal with. He sold it, then watched it go to the dogs. Must have been sad to see a bunch of idiots run a good business into the ground that took almost a life time to build up. BGR is turning its self into a dog exactly the same as the warehouse but they still have a slight hope but to compare them to RBD is the pitts. macdunk

[winner69]

Macdunk .. agree with you comments re Levene and their history ... did you know that Freedom Furniture now own Levenes?

And I think that a comparison with RBD is a real deal ... after all shareholders in both are in love with their company ... and prob there are some who own both

[Steve]

BGR quarterly sales figure to 31st Jan will be out in the next couple of weeks.

Like PPG, I would have a guess that there will be a further reduction in the expected profit...

[winner69]

But the price keeps going up so the news can't be all that bad

[Onthemoney]

Sales +, margins -

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

Sales +, margins -


Sales +, Margins - = Running to stand still...

[Sky Tower]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

BGR quarterly sales figure to 31st Jan will be out in the next couple of weeks.

Like PPG, I would have a guess that there will be a further reduction in the expected profit...



I think you would be guessing right. I certainly wouldn't be getting too excited at a great sales figure coz if thats what you are expecting I think you are gonna be disappointed :D

[Onthemoney]

I think you will find that they have picked it up (sales wise) in January after a dissappointing december but at the end of the day its the bottom line that matters....

[Steve]

When last did BGR have an on-going "January" sale? Not last year anyway.

Ouch! I can feel those margins hurting...

[winner69]

But the shareprice keeps rising ....

..... unlike the price of a dinner set i got for a young ones new flat .... reduced down to $9.99 ...unbelievable

[Onthemoney]

Hey Steve who ever brought anything from Briscoes that wasn't on sale, you would be a fool to because it would be on special in no time at all...

[Sky Tower]

Briscoes January Unmissable sale - well I for one missed it - too many sales for me, I'm afraid.

Does BGR think having non stop sales and hence discounting is a winning profitable strategy? Well when the December quarter sales figures come out we'll know :D

[Bling_Bling]

BGR sales maybe up due to the large "SALES" advertising. But I am afraid in the long term BGR will suffer. Who will buy the products when there are no Sales? BGR has potential if only the right captain was running the ship.

[winner69]

Two big parcels today

Wonder if it was the buyer of those million share parcels a few weeks back at 105 taking his profit

Or the same seller selling more ... if so he got a good price today

But then again is buyer happy

[winner69]

Wonder what happened to that Stirling Sports deal that was going to be announced in November

Probably fair value was $3M-$4M odd but obviously that was too expensive for Rod and the purse remains closed

Wasn't that deal going to add 20 cents to the shareprice and take it to 162 ... whoops a bit short of that at the moment

[Paper Tiger]

BGR is getting a lift on the back of the 4/4th - FY announcement this morning.
I feel sorry for those who are buying.

[Gryffyn]

Well at least the news wasn't bad/worse than previous and allows some breathing space.

Tossing up whether to exit with a small loss or hang in.

[scamper]

Div yield ~6% and due in april, gryff.
Perhaps reset stop loss and/or calculate whether the div is worth it given the wait...
scamper is enormously embarassed re his bgr holding -- talk about no discipline -- Z would throw stones at him....

[Gryffyn]

Yes, I got this one wrong but only a few g's down :-( Moving on now, especially as I'm div averse, might be the best strategy. Need to decide what to go with dosh - small stake only so speculation is allowed.

[Steve]

Where is some updated comment from THE KING? [^]

[Paper Tiger]

I note from the Fisher Funds January newsletter that Carmel Fisher as finally got fed up with the way Briscoes is going and has sold the last of her Funds holdings.

[Gryffyn]

Wow - me and Carmel in sync.

THE KING says Pardon to ask but who is Carmal Fisher Funds.. ?? [^]