THE KING & BGR WHAT NOW.

THE KING says BGR did not have its own thread but its arrived now,
noted good turnover today 614,00 + some body likes it could be Gerry Harvy they are come div so at $1.54 = $1.49 not bad.[8D]

Stated in AUS last week Retail stocks WW ave PE 17.4 US are above but AUS/NZ are below so BGR @ PE 13.5 can move up easy this just for Clouds mite add C9 whats retail in JAP like.[8D]

Have had requrests here to ask BGR to make a homware shop in Paraparaumm now that would be nice.:D

Regards THE KING

[willy_wonker]

I hear BGR will start selling sex toys and a re-rating by analyst to a PE of 40x. :D

Willy dreaming again. [:o)]

[4BOB]

...5 words...jumpty...pumpty...dumpty...;)

THE KING says 2bobie your rerated down to 15 cents.:D[?][?]:D

[kiwigold]

King this company don't know whether they're a discount chain or a department store,and I think the public are confused too.They're sales are'nt real sales, but everyone else's normal prices and you can certainly get cheaper prices for the same goods elsewhere and Rebel sports are too dear.I prefer WHS .I'd say BGR will be tracking sideways until they establish a clear identity in NZ

[KJ]

King-if you like them then buy them-make your own decisions.

[MeNoBatty]

Can't see the upside, Kingy. Methinks you might be overly optimistic on BRG. Retail is tough for the foreseeable future. GoldenKiwi hit the nail on the head.

[willy_wonker]

I support KING on this one. Watch for the movement starting mid next month or so. Of cos I would support Kingee as I bought some BGR at $1.46. :)

[willy_wonker]

I notice institution buying the last couple of days. :)

THE KING says yes Willie your right near on one million shares someone must know that us two are holders.:D:D[8D][8D]:D:D

[willy_wonker]

Either that or Mr Norman is reading this thread... :D

THE KING says Willie mite be right be on the ball than you think.;)

[4BOB]

slowly, but surely she's a go-under. 4BOB wait for you at 120 dump street...[}:)]

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by 4BOB

slowly, but surely she's a go-under. 4BOB wait for you at 120 dump street...[}:)]


Please enlighten us more on your theory.

Me & King are intrigue by your comments.

[huds]

4Bob doesn't like retail, he does all his shopping at the sallies

[kiwigold]

I think 4BOB's trying to say that this fishy smells..............don't touch it.

[4BOB]

...was that you ww bought more bgr @146? today...;)

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by 4BOB

...was that you ww bought more bgr @146? today...;)


I wish I did, it closed at $1.50. :) [:o)]

[4BOB]

...bet ya didn't know mr norman's been a byer;)...

THE KING says Listen Mr Stupid Bob its Gerry Harvy not norman.

:D:D:D[?]

[willy_wonker]

Briscoes is re-inventing its marketing strategy.

http://xtramsn.co.nz/business/0,,5007-3207626,00.html

[4BOB]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says BGR did not have its own thread but its arrived now,
noted good turnover today 614,00 + some body likes it could be Gerry Harvy they are come div so at $1.54 = $1.49 not bad.[8D]
...Have had requrests here to ask BGR to make a homware shop in Paraparaumm now that would be nice.:D

[4BOB]

...oh you & yours getting rich quick scum bugs...me salt bagging this dog mite give u more entry opportunities...with your loads...

...wow look at the king's pretty dress..."but he's naked" said a little voice...[:o)]

THE KING says BOB now we all know that you are really Stupid.[:0]

[4BOB]

...oh what a waste to all u pretending...i've been to shareholder meeting...i talked with pm...after all...ya only a pumper...ramper...dumper...seen plenty of those fishy...

...ya over exposed...[}:)]

[Burgerbun]

and MHI ripping the dresses off PPG and BGR.

the KING is definitely naked[:0][:X]

THE KING says between Stupid and now Clouds MHI holds NO interst to NZ.[8]

[willy_wonker]

All good things take time. :)

[Burgerbun]

and sometimes those things grow mould WW[:p]


BTW, looks like The KING has lost his marbles as well as his dress.

[willy_wonker]

C9, why are you picking on KING?
Unlike some people in here, KING is putting his money where his mouth is and sticking his neck out by making recommendations. Maybe he gets is right and maybe he gets it wrong, but at least he makes a call.

[4BOB]

...oh really?...do ta words "buying...hyping...ramping...pumping...dumping" mean anything to thy...;)

THE KING says its something Stupid cant Do No body listens.:D[^]

[4BOB]

...ya 2 true 2 right...[:p][:o)]

[coge]

What about humping, pumping & dumping, I thought this was a family forum ?[:0][:o)]

[4BOB]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

C9, why are you picking on KING?
Unlike some people in here, KING is putting his money where his mouth is and sticking his neck out by making recommendations. Maybe he gets is right and maybe he gets it wrong, but at least he makes a call.

...or putting his mouth where his money is?...

...me putting me money where me mouse is...:D

THE KING says Stupid are not saying any facts about BGR company[xx(]

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by 4BOB

...oh really?...do ta words "buying...hyping...ramping...pumping...dumping" mean anything to thy...;)


Come on Bob, do you really believe that KING can influence a company with a market cap of $321 million? It will take an institution with deep pockets to move BGR. Most investors in this forum have "Mickey Mouse" money and uses discount brokers.

[4BOB]

WW: wonder why the bgr's capped at lower 150? some big sharks've been trying to close their positions. there's no shortage of sellers at the current price. why? don't be fooled by small vols on the asking side. they've been fed steadily by ......

[willy_wonker]

Bob, you are only assuming by watching the market. Unless you can substantiate you claims.

What is more interesting is why did Mac Daddy H. Norman resign from the board?

[Barrel Scraper]

A couple of points:

1)"Madder than a two bob watch" comes to mind when I think of you 4BOB.

2)"The King" was a proponent of BGR long b4 declaring he had bought shares in the company - if my memory serves me correctly BGR is one of his pics in the guru comp - and his advice was to hold BGR when I sought opinion a few months ago on the future of my BGR holding.

3)Having John Skippen, the Finance Director of Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd on the board of BGR appeals to me - I note Harvey Norman don't seem to be an "In ya face" discounter - so the future involvement of a bean counter with a Harvey Norman background on the BGR board can only be synergistic with BGR and its new strategy.

[4BOB]

...a few months ago?;)...did you mean the time when i shopped for shorts?:D...[8D]

[4BOB]

...what a bargain...;)

[4BOB]

...clock is ticking...;)

[willy_wonker]

BGR bidding for Whitcoulls??? NOT good ! [xx(]:(

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2868162a13,00.html

[4BOB]

...yours sold?;)...

[Burgerbun]

:D:D:D

told you both to buy MHI suckers;)

compare the charts boys.

PPG, BGR, WHS....

MHI streaks ahead in just 2 months.[^]

[clearasmud]

Congratulations Cloud9 for your excellant calls on Michael Hill, Nuplex and Fletcher Building!

THE KING says BGR is still good and there is a large buyer been constantly buying what and see.

Watching from Paraparaumu Aus 4 May. THE KING

[willy_wonker]

I really dont understand why BGR is bidding for Whitcoulls? What value can Duke add to Whitcoulls. For the old boys can remeber the old days when Whitcoulls was listed, what a total disaster it was. I am not a fan of BGR bidding for a book store. Still with adding value to the current operations or buy something that compliments the current operation.

THE KING says Whitcoulls is a good buy for BGR First and most important it come`s back to NZ owership bugger off the POMS.
Second a ready made chain of good Quaility shops [up market]it takes heaps to build from the ground up and you get there customers from day 1.
Third ask Sir Ron B it was Whitcoulls that caused the fall out with him and the board and his demise from the Company, he stated it was the best thing he evey bought, not to says he could buy back too.

But dont count your chickens yet till BGR has them in the bag.

Watching in Paraparaumu 4 May AUS THE KING

[willy_wonker]

Hey King, been reading our post. I think we BOTH need to go back to English class for some tuition... LOL :D

THE KING says Willie its the point you make and may not be the we say it.
[8D][8D][8D]

THE KING says Willie I just gave you 3 good points on BGR so called aim at Whitcoulls as requested and NO reply whats up son.:D

Regards THE KING

[willy_wonker]

Sorry King, was busy this morning chatting on the phone.

Just a few concerns about Whitcoulls purchase.

1. Will BGR need to raise funds to purchase Whitcoulls? BGR has $50 m in bank, but Whit will cost around $100 M.

2. How can BGR add value to Whitcoulls when they are currently struggling to add value to their existing operations?

But then if BGR can obtain Whit at a cheap PE of 4x, then it is a bargain. Some how I doubt they can. I would prefer BGR to purchase or merge with companies that compliments their existing business and add value than to venture off into the unknown.

THE KING says BGR so called crack at Whitcoulls is far from a done thing:D[8D][8D]

Regards THE KING

THE KING says BGR did not get Whitcoulls went to the Aussie`s Pacific Equity Partners, This the mob that floged Vertex for a mint, bugger then whats next another float or BGR mite come up with a better Buy.

Better luck next time,

Regards THE KING

[Lawso]

I had my own shoeshine boy/taxi driver-type experience with BGR a year or so ago. Shopping in Rebel Sport, one of the staff mentioned to me that he had got shares in BGR. I commented that they had done well with the price at 170. He said: "Yes, and they'll soon be 270 - you watch."

I resolved there and then never to buy BGR.:)

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

I had my own shoeshine boy/taxi driver-type experience with BGR a year or so ago. Shopping in Rebel Sport, one of the staff mentioned to me that he had got shares in BGR. I commented that they had done well with the price at 170. He said: "Yes, and they'll soon be 270 - you watch."

I resolved there and then never to buy BGR.:)


A year or so ago they were over 280 ... ouch ... 50% down from the peak and heading for all time low again

Rod with his plenty of (or some) cash and some pretty crappy businesses on the market not a good mix

[star]

I bought BGR at $1.60 last year and sold at $1.90 begining of this year.

With the current price of $1.43, div yield 7.3% and P/E 8.97, this stock is a buy opportunity for investors seeking dividend yield.

Current shareholders should be patient. It will eventually go up.

STAR yes if lasts the 100 years

[star]

Enigma, think about this:
If managment does not take serious action and let the share price continue tumbling, this company will become a takeover target soon.

[star]

Enigma, if you seek growth in this stock, probaly this is a wrong one. The retail, homeware, footware and clothing are mature industries, they can not deliver double digit growth every year.

That is the reason I sold.

Star I think it is a Dog with Fleas. Who would want it.

[kittydashwood]

I think i'll have some before the Duke takes Rebel Sport to South Africa.

THE KING says he cant agree with some of the comments made about dogs & fleas, slack opperation dumb management,far from that you can`t say that Mr Duke and Gerry Harvey both very rich people and at tht top.

This is not the bis that fires rockets much but makes constant money this is good stock BGR can only get to be a better bis and bigger.
Whitcoulls would have helped but must have had a too big a price tag, but a South Africa dose not fit to well they will come up with the goods.

Like MAP buy when the price is down NO one rings a bell either get in or stay away and bleat.[:0]

Watching from Paraparaumu THE KING

[willy_wonker]

I agree with you KING. Retail stores like WHS, BGR, MHI have good cashflow and can always pay the rent. I know, cos I am a landlord. If you are a shareholder in retail, you just have to sit tight and ride out the rough patches for the rainbow ahead. All good things have their cycles. I agree it is not for the gun ho trader, but good in the long term steady as she goes portfolio with good dividend.

I am actually happy BGR didnt get Whitcoulls. Duke should concentrate on the current business and get it right again. They need to get a new marketing firm to advice them, as their marketing has no direction.

[kittydashwood]

I agree, the whole Briscoes side of the business needs a revamp in its sales pitch. Sure the advertising and sale promotions worked in 2001-2 but the campaign hasn't evolved and the quality of the inventory slipped.

Now that Super 12 sponsorship will sell a few boots. Picking gains on the rebel sport side in double digits. Scares me to think what that placement cost tho.

[winner69]

Sales down but margins up (whatever that means) but profits down if this is what this sentence is meant to mean under performance in sales has impacted on the first quarter profit in comparison to last year and it is unlikely that all of the shortfall will be made up during the second quarter

So is growth in profit this year out of the question?

What will happen today to the price - big numbers like Rebel same stores sales down 18% makes ugly reading

[kittydashwood]

No surprises here. I think people were expecting worse.
Growth this year not out of the question but will be fueled by acquisition.

[willy_wonker]

Ouch !

It has broken the support level at $141. Dont know how low it will go. I suppose time will tell.

Oh well, it will go into the long term portfolio filling cabinet.

[Liberty]

Willy

Instead of sticking these into the "long term portfolio filing cabinet", why not sell, realise your loss, if that's what it is, and look around for something which is in an uptrend.

That way you'll be protecting, even increasing your capital, instead of trying to second-guess the market as to if/when this stock will bottom out, all the while experiencing capital depletion.

Ride with the winners - there are plenty of them out there.

[willy_wonker]

Liberty, thanks for the advice, but BGR is only a small investment for me and I dont need the cash. I am actually cashed up and constantly seeking for opportunities. BGR have always been a long term strategy. :)

[Footsie]

I have been watching this one for a while now and despite the poor result I think with a yield of around 8% now, the stock will find support soon.
However, I do expect it will fall a little further.

You may say, oh but that div is not sustainable if NPAT falls. Given all the cash on hand and complete lack of debt is it likely Mr Duke would cut the div, I dont think so. He may even raise it.

Anything below 130 and I'll start picking some up.

[quartzpurple]

I like the company because everyone seems to dislike it. [8D][8D][8D]

I will list why I like the company. By looking at the recent annual report, the company CFO has significantly improved and so has its free cash flow. The company has no debt (if you exclude loan to directors and lease). This means IF the company can increase its sale and/or profit margin, shareholders will be benefited.

The company has also increased its dividend payment. This is always a sign of confidence.

The recent announce employee share option plan sets the issue price at $1.81 which is well below the current market price. Employees will be encouraged to work hard.

Around 82% of the company is owned by the directors. I don't believe they will be content to keep seeing the share price drop unless they are truly imcompetent.

The decrease in sale should be totally expected. What would you expect if a company stops massively discounting all of a sudden? Of course the totol sales would drop. What matter is whether the margin has been kept or improve and in this case it has. This should show the company's strategy of trnaforming its image is working.

The company is in the middle of transforming itself, so it won't have to compete head to head against Warehouse for bargain hunters. I believe its strategy is correct. :):):)

[Farouk]

I just wish that they would get rid of that stupid "smiley" woman that they have been flogging in their advertising for about a decade or more. Surely they could instruct their advertising agency to put her out to pasture. Until such time, Farouk won't be setting one foot in a Briscoes store. The fact that none of that rubbish that is for sale in these stores is of any interest to the Farouk wallet also factors into this decision.
By the way, you've got to watch them in "Rebel"- We made a special trip to Rebel for 35% off Timberlands Shoes- found some shoes, went to the check-out & she tried to bill me for 220 dollars, NO said I, they are meant to be on special. Oh, said she, they haven't programmed the tills to reflect this. My mate bought some muscle powder stuff, meant to be 20% off,-- same thing happened, girly tried to charge him full price, until he protested. I know that BGR shareholders that wil squeal "That's great, we will be making more profit by ripping off gullible suckers". Farouk replies "only once, as we won't be back".Those Rebel stores are very underwhelming anyway methinks.

[Placebo]

Hey Farouk, that happens in reverse too. I bought a hat there for $25, they only charged me $12.50. I queried, she said that's what it shows (don't question the computer eh!), so what did I do.... I bought 2...

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by cloudnine

:D:D:D

told you both to buy MHI suckers;)

compare the charts boys.

PPG, BGR, WHS....

MHI streaks ahead in just 2 months.[^]



How ya feeling WW and King?;)

Should listen more to ya servants:D

WHS DOWN
BGR DOWN
MHI UP!

THE KING says C9 I love you too you must be so big and kissable at the same time, When I have finished reading the A/Report and digest the facts will report back to members later next week as just returned to AUS. But as a fact i note BGR is headed for Coastlands Paraparaumu,
Great can only incress my house price good on you BGR.:D:D

Watching from Australia THE KING

[willy_wonker]

C9, you little guru of love. BGR is only play money for me mate, so Willy not too worry and happen to hold for long term. :) If it comes down maybe I will buy more. :)

[Dimebag]

Quartspurple

Take the rose-tints off man! With all due respect, your analysis is blinded by subjectivity

I like the company because everyone seems to dislike it.
Is this rational? Isn't this just as bad as liking a company just because everyone else likes it?

I will list why I like the company. By looking at the recent annual report, the company CFO has significantly improved and so has its free cash flow. The company has no debt (if you exclude loan to directors and lease). This means IF the company can increase its sale and/or profit margin, shareholders will be benefited.
Cash flow fluctuates from year to year. For cash flow to continue to grow over the long-term, sales and earnings must continue to grow. If a company can increase its sales and/or earnings, this will still benefit a company that has debt (not just one that doesn't), so I can't quite make the connection you are here. And the big question is if.

The company has also increased its dividend payment. This is always a sign of confidence.
It is, but confidence can be misplaced. When the dividend was increased, they weren't expecting profits to fall. Presumably they couldn't find any way to deploy it effectively internally either.

The recent announce employee share option plan sets the issue price at $1.81 which is well below the current market price. Employees will be encouraged to work hard.
$1.81 is above the market price, and because it is so far above, employees may not be encouraged to work harder knowing that all the hard work that goes into increasing the price from $1.39 to $1.81 will go unrewarded. Why bother?

Around 82% of the company is owned by the directors. I don't believe they will be content to keep seeing the share price drop unless they are truly imcompetent.
They may not be content even if they are competent. But if it is symptomatic of BGR simply being hugely overpriced in the first place, there isn't much they can do about it.

The decrease in sale should be totally expected. What would you expect if a company stops massively discounting all of a sudden? Of course the totol sales would drop. What matter is whether the margin has been kept or improve and in this case it has. This should show the company's strategy of trnaforming its image is working.
It doesn't show it is working. An increase in profits would show it is working, and we don't know if profits have improved yet. I would conjecture that it is very unlikely they have improved, as if they had, BGR would have hastened to add this into their announcement (unless they like to see the price fall, and are therefore incompetent as you state, and who wants to invest in a company with incompetent management?? [:P]).

The company is in the middle of transforming itself, so it won't have to compete head to head against Warehouse for bargain hunters. I believe its strategy is correct.
You are probably right.


QP: just warning you friend. Its easy to be highly subjective in one's analysis when they have a vested interest. I don't have one because I don't and never have owned BGR. Hopefully thats some food for thought.

Best of luck with your investment! :)
Dimebag

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

C9, you little guru of love. BGR is only play money for me mate, so Willy not too worry and happen to hold for long term. :) If it comes down maybe I will buy more. :)


I think its all play money for you Willy...

for ages 2-6 only:D:D:D:D

[:p]
[:X]

[willy_wonker]

c9, give is a rest mate.

I really cant be bothered going the rounds with you like that of Nightmare. Ok, you win, are you happy now? [|)]

[Burgerbun]

ohh god

whats the matter with you people in New Zealand these days


Youre all so god damn sensitive

The countries turned you all into little PC marshmellows

:D:D:D:D:D:D

I told yould Id be interested in your reaction to a 2c drop in BGR[:p]...down 15c since we talked;)




anyway Willy mate, take it like a marshmellow if you want, its only a bit of jesting you lily livered limp lettuce leaf you.

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says 2bobie your rerated down to 15 cents.:D[?][?]:D


and this one was right on the mark:D:D:D

rerated down 15c alright;)

go 4 Bobby

[willy_wonker]

C9, dont hold ya breath. Drop in the price may be an opportunity. The question is not if, but when willy buys again. :)

[willy_wonker]

RETAIL MARKET NEEDS CONSOLIDATING.

What I dont really understand is why dont the few big retailers like BGR, Kmart and WHS consolidate the retail market through mergers and acquisition? Through consolidation, it will stop all the silly discounting and reduce cost, thus increase further purchasing power. Instead, we get silly WHS running off to wonderland and losing money.

You have to just look at the freight industry to see that consolidation in the industry can do wonders.. eg: MFT and OWN.

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

C9, dont hold ya breath. Drop in the price may be an opportunity. The question is not if, but when willy buys again. :)



WW.....When will you buy again Willy?

The chart doesnt inspire much...

BTW...how are your pants? I sense some worry in your last post?


PS...I see your master has deserted you;)

[kittydashwood]

Couldn't resist it.
Had to get some.

[willy_wonker]

C9, yeah I am panicking, like the 10 cent coin that dropped out of my back pocket...lol All just fun money for me, so small it just makes me laugh. :D

THE KING says Good on you Kitty.:D:D

Regards THE KING

[willy_wonker]

I am starting to wonder about the Duke.

Marketing for BGR is still the same as before. Just saw a big sale advert on TV with 20-50% off everything. I though he didnt want to discount anymore?

Where is the new strategy he is talking about?

THE KING says Willis Mr Duke is not that silly do you know his Div`s per week is $191,000 not bad us little blokes just hang about and hope to become a Duke.:D

Duke said at the A/meet TV would still be the first line to advertising and no change in format, the big guess is what chain of stores will they BUY.[8D]

Regards THE KING

[willy_wonker]

Duke should stick with getting the current operations growing again before venturing off to wonderland for an adventure.

[willy_wonker]

Hey KING, was out shopping with the mrs at Rebel sports sale yesterday. Rebel was packed and I had to wait 20 mins in the que to get to check out. Looking good ! Half of me wants to buy more BGR, but the other half fears the Reserve bank interest rate hike.

THE KING says Willie I am in the same boat as you but being out of NZ just at the moment helps, My sec came over and brought a Dominion paper with her so reading all the latest news noticed BGR Yld 5.3% the Pe. 8.3 well below 10 thats a BUY with a low of $1.28 so any thing below $1.30 is a run and grab game, as all sellers now are losing money GO get them WW.:D

As a side talk i cant see out of my Right eye so on Friday to the top man i am hoping all GOES well.[8]

Regards THE KING

[willy_wonker]

KING, youhaving an operation on Friday for your eye?

All the best and hope you get well soon mate. Willy will pray for ya.

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Willie I am in the same boat as you but being out of NZ just at the moment helps, My sec came over and brought a Dominion paper with her so reading all the latest news noticed BGR Yld 5.3% the Pe. 8.3 well below 10 thats a BUY with a low of $1.28 so any thing below $1.30 is a run and grab game, as all sellers now are losing money GO get them WW.:D

As a side talk i cant see out of my Right eye so on Friday to the top man i am hoping all GOES well.[8]

Regards THE KING




Hopefully that operation will improve your math....
but I guess you see what you wanna see right Your Majesty[B)]

BGR PE ratio currently 11.6 @ $1.32...with NO earnings growth.

only a sucker would buy before the downtrendline break...Im just worried youll suck WW into dropping another $500:D


Good luck with the eye;)

[winner69]

You have to give to Duke for being so honest and upfront at the AGM and admitting they have really stuffed.

Really sad to hear the confession re Rebel -
..... according to Colmar Brunton, the excessive discounting that we embarked upon through the latter part of 2002 and through out 2003 cheapened Rebel Sport, de-valued the international sports brands we sell, and the sporting goods industry as a whole. The net result was that we drove a portion of our shoppers to other, low-priced retailers and perhaps, some away from the category altogether.

So Rebel is no longer the (quote) the most preferred sports store by a country mile.

Duke also said that shoppers had noticed a perceived drop in in-store service levels. Willie had to wait 20 minutes to hand over the other day doesn't suggest this has improved.

But then he was buying something with 20-50% off because as sure as the tide goes out Rebel had another big price off long weekend sale. Are they really serious about making any changes to overcoming the cheapening of the brand.

The hardest thing to do in retailing is to successfully rebuild a brand that has been 'cheapened'.

Even more so when times get tougher.

Will interest rates reduce retail spend? and what impact on Rebel?

What happens if the NZ$ weakens further over the next year? Those Nikes will go up in price (or Rebel margins decline if they don't) and if Rebel go down the path of not 'cheapening' htemselves anymore the $180 full price Nikes might cost $200 soon and onlt $130 on special when this years orice was $80 on special. Less shoes sold and higher margins? or will more punters be driven to the cheaper stores?

Hard and interesting times ahead for the Rebel. Will watch closely to see how things pan out.

THE KING says thanks winner69 all veiws are welcome but BGR is far from folding and has money in the BANK, the new store due to open Paraparaumu in July will be a goer from day ONE so time is required in NZ for all bis to grow after returning to AUS this time the changes that have occured in 4 months here would take 4 years in NZ but they are happening so just hang in this is a good stock.[8D]

Remember Mr Chips i bought when NO body wanted them time has fixed them too.:D

Watching from Australia THE KING

[willy_wonker]

BGR is purely exposed to our domestic economy. When NZers starts spending BIG again, Willy will be in BGR with all guns blazing. It is not if, but when. KING is right that BGR has cash in bank and little to no borrowings, which is a plus in Willy's books.

[Burgerbun]

so WW, you have no BGR then?

and what do you say of your PE of 8.3 Mr King.

All hail, the King of delusion[:p]

THE KING says the little pink line just crossed the blue line so THE KING made a bee line to the brokers and bought more BGR now is the time to BUY if charting works. :D

But noted in AUS Rebel Sport which has 51 stores up the profit 4% which made the price rise to $A2.75, but the inside info is this group is opening a new chain called, Glue Street fashion so where there is smoke there is FIRE. [8D]

Watching from Paraparaumu THE KING

[willy_wonker]

KING.. I am interested, tell me more about this new clothing store.

I want to buy BGR, but still abit nervous.

THE KING says Willie thats inside info thats all i can say,:D
dont you like the Blue & Pink line bit which is true if you note people are very relucktant to sell because all sales are now at a loss. :D

BGR hit $1.26 but very hard to get but now solid at $1.30 Willie now is the time to BUY..

Regards THE KING

[willy_wonker]

I hear you KING.
I too like BGR.

My fear is further interest rate hike. I am waiting for interest rate to top.

THE KING says Willie note the price of BGR up from $1.26 to $1.45 i told you the little red line crossed the blue one, Good one.[8D]

Our new store at Paraparaumu is just about finished but i go back to AUS Thursday so your in charge. :D

Regards THE KING

THE KING says eat your heart out Warehouse at Paraparaumu is empty and BRISCOES homeware is chock a block with six tills open customers standing 10 deep and a happy look on shareholders faces lot of the staff are the holders the way to go. :D

There has been a constant large buyer in the market for some time now something will soon happen. [8D]

Watching from Paraparaumu Australia tomorrow. THE KING

[willy_wonker]

You are da man KING :):)

wish I bought some at lower levels.

[Gryffyn]

Becoming very tempted to get into this one for the first time. Might cash up HBY for a little foray...

[Gryffyn]

Ok, have bought into the BGR story. Think this one is due some more recovery.

[willy_wonker]

KING, where do you see BGR price at in a year or two time frame?

[Burgerbun]

Maybe back to where it was b4 you boys started ramping it up:D:D:D


$1.53.
Youll see that C9s ****tail of MHI, HLG and PRG has outperformed you by a country mile![:p]


How are ya pants BTW Willy?

THE KING says willie should be back to $1.80 in that time frame its the mood of the invester that will change. :D[8D]:D

Watching from Australia. THE KING

[Burgerbun]

and what forward PER would that give BGR King?

Let me help you a little...dont start with a PE of 8;)

[Gryffyn]

Ah C9 - ya should've sold MHI when they hit $6 quickly a few months ago. Sure, they've crept a little some since then but that was a long time going sideways and I think they'll do that some more now.

BGR has some good recovery in it.

[willy_wonker]

Geezzz C9, you are starting to sound like Minder. Hope you havnt got his "gau" disease.[xx(]:D

[The Doctor]

I predict Duke will buy the BBQ factory off ASB,at a discount.Will be a good 'fit' with current operations and satisfy oft quoted aspirations for acquisitions.How will that affect the shareprice?

[willy_wonker]

If Duke buys the BBQ factory, I am selling my entire shareholding !!

Why is he venturing off to wonderland the current business is not running as planned? Need to tidy up BGR and make it grow again before he wonders too far of the path into the lost forest.

THE KINGS says Willie nothing has happened yet, and this is my 1000 thread as the first person to write on this board its been a long time comming,, :D

Regards THE KING

THE KING says Another sucesful Company how is the Paraparaumu store going has any one been so as a report may be made I been back in AUS a week now , but there is a good buyer in the market..:D[8D]

[winner69]

The lastest sales report seems to mirror a RBD one

.... declining same store stores ... big time i one of the concepts .... margins getting better (we think) .... but geez it costs some to run these new stores ..... and profits down .... but don't worry we will catch up in the 2nd half

King - that big buyer getting a bargain today

THE KING says Not a bad report compared to others other than new stores opening is that sales are down 1.33% with a good second half to come and the price is Right wont always be low. [8D]

Meanwhile Warehouse has stoped giveing sales reports and still lose $1A million a month not my cup of TEA. :D

Watching from Australia THE KING

[willy_wonker]

There is no liquidity in BGR. When there is a large buyer the price goes up and when a large seller the price goes down.

[Leai_Se_Tupe]

I'll be watching for support at $1.30, or failing that $1.25. Will look at BGR if support holds at either of these levels with the 2nd 1/2-year in mind.

[willy_wonker]

I think there is more downside to BGR. But then I maybe wrong.

THE KING says Willie when it rains you get wet,, but when the rain stops you dry..:D Thats the bit about your liquidity.. :D

Buy or Sell bit,, Willie is doing nothing but talk :D[8D]

Regards THE KING

[winner69]

The full details of their 1/2 year result will make interesting reading

From todays little gem that seems to give everybody a lot of confidence that all is well one can't overlook that NPBT margins this 1/2 year is only going to be 7% odd compared to nearly 12% last year.

In spite of improved gross margins those extra operating costs most be pretty high.

Notice that while Rebel sales seem to picking up same store sales at Homewares this quarter were down 12% compared to only 5% the previous quarter - that to me is going backwards at a great rate.

Lets see what they actually come up with

[kiwigold]

Well king you were warned,this is a Turkey.........
Briscoe's warns of half-year profit fall
07 August 2004

Briscoe Group yesterday warned its half-year profits would fall by a third, but promised a full-year turnaround.


The Rebel Sport and Briscoes Homeware group's interim profits are now set to fall from last year's result by up to $3.5 million, to about $6.5 million.

[Burgerbun]

yet he keeps putting those smiley faces all over the place[?];)


nah...The King lost it here, and he doesnt like C9 now for telling him he couldnt even work out the correct PE.[:p]

BTW.....wheres that 4BOB[8D]



I tried to tell em both too but King and his snivelling jester Wonker were in love...........

[Gryffyn]

Result disappointing but BGR could still be a fairly priced share with some rebound potential.

THE KING says Please kiwigold just give us the name of one only
"NON TURKEY",, :D:D

Regards THE KING

[Burgerbun]

Bad timing Gryf...

You traded a greyhound for a mut...
look what happens...MHI $6.20;)


look at the 1 year charts

PERFECT opposites...


and all the while, a little King keeps smiling a lunatic smile and wondering how to use his dusty abacus for BGRs NEW;) FWD PER.

[Burgerbun]

King dear.....

could you please swap around the last two words on your thread title...........

:D:D:D:D:D:D<----------Very satisfying

[lambton]

My sooth sayer says BGR lots more downside and then privatisation again.

THE KING says for cloudnine,, :D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[Burgerbun]

Thats better Your Majesty...:)

more smiles....:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D<--------plus 1!

Glad to see you happy.



...however...watch out for THE SPORTS AUTHORITY[?]

[kiwigold]

KING put some money into POT (Yes really)or SKC or HQP or FPA.there's a few good ones out there.

THE KING says that lot are not GOLDKIWI ,,:D

[kiwigold]

Well there's always the TAB then KING ,because you won't make any money on BGR.............

[lambton]

Agreed King too many bags of gold to buy that overpriced lot for my likng

THE KING says sorry goldkiwi making money at present price BGR is a
BEAUTY.. :D

Regards THE KING

[Paper Tiger]

I have been keeping an eye on BGR, was rather surprised when the price rose to 1.40 and expect it to drift back to 1.30. However I will not buy in until they turn their image round which for me means getting rid of that infuriating woman from the Briscoe adverts!

[kiwigold]

THE KING says sorry goldkiwi making money at present price BGR is a
BEAUTY..

You go for it KING but there are better bets out there for making QUICK Dollars on than this Turkey.

THE KING says Thanks for your comments and your thick hide is NOTED.
:D[8D]

Regards THE KING

THE KING says the price has jumped back towards the $1.50 support mark and the report will be out Sep 3 or 6 so we can plan our next moves BUY in the worst time not in the HIGH time.. [8D]

Regards THE KING

[Gryffyn]

For what it's worth, IRG have this as a growth buy to 1.55 with

"The company is well managed, has a debt-free balance sheet and is trading at less than four times net assets, much of which is cash. This
makes it a worthwhile longer-term investment for those prepared to ignore shorter-term volatility. In particular, the current year looks to be a difficult one for BGR with first quarter sales tracking behind expectations."

Disc: recent BGR buyer

[Paper Tiger]

You can always find someone rating BGR has a growth buy. I think it could do well if they rebuild the Briscoe image and I am not convinced that the management are on track with that.
Still watching and waiting.

[Gryffyn]

Interest rates look set to climb further as retail sales boom

12.08.2004
4.00pm - By ADAM BENNETT
Yet another surprisingly strong economic number today has economists talking up chances of another interest rate hike beyond that widely expected for September 9.

Retail sales grew at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.8 per cent in the June quarter confounding economists' predictions of 0.3 per cent and showing no sign of a widely forecast economic slowdown.

Excluding car sales and repairs and petrol sales, sales were even stronger with a 1.5 per cent rise.

Today's data comes hard on the heels of Tuesday's job numbers which showed unemployment had fallen to a 17 year low of 4.0 per cent, better than the forecast 4.3 per cent.

The two figures combined point to the economy having expanded far more rapidly in the June quarter than forecast, just as it did in the March quarter.

Any interest rate rise is likely to lead to a hike in mortgage rates.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Ulf Schoefisch said the strong retail and employment data suggested second quarter GDP growth of about 1 per cent. Dr Schoefisch told NZPA Deutsche Bank had previously expected about 0.7 per cent.

Today's figures virtually guarantees the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates next month to 6.25 per cent to head off inflationary pressures.

But Citigroup economist Annette Beacher said this week's robust data meant Citigroup was now expecting a further .25 per cent rise on October 28 as well.

While Citigroup believed interest rates did not need to rise much further, "the RBNZ emphasis on lagging indicators suggests that cash rates will continue to rise until more clear evidence of a slowdown emerges", Ms Beacher said in commentary.

Dr Schoefisch also said today's number "confirmed the increased probability of another RBNZ rate hike beyond the one that is firmly priced for 9 September".

A further rate hike in October would take the official cash rate (OCR) to 6.5 per cent its highest since early 2001.

BNZ economist Stephen Toplis said after taking stock of recent developments, he suspected that would be the case.

- NZPA

[Gryffyn]

Looks good for the next report then doesn't it.

Disc: recent BGR

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I have been keeping an eye on BGR, was rather surprised when the price rose to 1.40 and expect it to drift back to 1.30. However I will not buy in until they turn their image round which for me means getting rid of that infuriating woman from the Briscoe adverts!


That infuriating woman is probably one of the most potent marketing devices in the country .... she might be infuriating but she is effective.

The issue for BRG has been trying to position itself in an increasingly crowded market .... I'm not quite sure what sort of a demographic it is aiming at but I know it is somewhere between the Warehouse and Kircaldie and Staines!!:D

Once they sort out exactly where they are placed things should improve. I reckon that is 6 months away so probably some buying opportunities between now and then.

It's probably worth keeping a physical eye on their stores to see if they start to drag themselves out of the basement (bargain basement marketing, that is)

THE KING says The next report will prob have lower profit & sales but the DIV should remain steady or upwards take your pick, but there are very few NZ Co`s you can watch with your own eyes to judge and see not going broke.:)

THE KING jumped from Postie + as its in the same boat to slow retail growth to carry clothing stores which seem to be every where there shares could fall bigger after its comming report time will tell..[8D]

Watching from Australia THE KING

[Paper Tiger]

quote:

That infuriating woman is probably one of the most potent marketing devices in the country .... she might be infuriating but she is effective.



With the exception of the TV face of Briscoes I think we are in agreement: Once they work out what they want to be and sell that to the public they and their shares will do well. Maybe I will buy in soon.

[Gryffyn]

Strong retail spending belies forecasts

13.08.2004
By IRENE CHAPPLE
Better-than-expected retail figures yesterday shattered expectations of an economic slow-down and left economists wondering how long the good times could last.

The National Bank said low unemployment and improving household wealth were likely to trigger wage gains.

"Over the year ahead it is likely consumer spending, and the domestic economy more generally, will be supported for some time yet."

Yesterday's statistics showed growth in total retail sales at a seasonally adjusted 0.8 per cent for the June quarter, above economists' expectations of 0.2 per cent.

Fifteen of the 24 retail industries recorded higher seasonally adjusted sales, with total spending of $13.16 billion, 7.7 per cent higher than for the same quarter the previous year.

Appliance retailing was the main contributor to the increase, reflecting the strong housing sector, while the leisure industries were also buoyant, reflecting a strong tourism market.

Economists reacted by upping their bets that the official cash rate would be raised when it is reviewed on October 28.

The figures come in the same week that unemployment was disclosed at 4 per cent, a 17-year low.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said the rate of growth in the economy needed to be controlled because it was "too fast for the labour market and too fast for the infrastructure".

"There are a lot of sources of inflationary pressure."

Robin Clements, chief economist of UBS, said the problem was "a good one" and largely the product of the booming housing market.

"People have been feeling confident and spending."

While a slowdown is still regarded as a "when, not if", the screws are expected to be turned on interest rates to squeeze the retail market and slow growth.

A 25-basis-point increase in the official cash rate was already seen as almost certain for September's monetary policy statement.

Several economists now pick another increase when the Reserve Bank reviews the official cash rate in 10 weeks.

Citigroup New Zealand economist Annette Beacher relied on the unemployment and retail sales to revise her expectations for October to a peak of 6.5 per cent.

She said the Reserve Bank's emphasis on lagging indicators "suggests that cash rates will continue to rise until more clear evidence of a slowdown emerges".

[Gryffyn]

Not bad news for BGR holders.

Disc: BGR

[Paper Tiger]

from 09/08/04:

quote:

I have been keeping an eye on BGR, was rather surprised when the price rose to 1.40 and expect it to drift back to 1.30.



They seem to be ending today at 1.47! [:I]

[Gryffyn]

Get in soon! Maybe a slight recovery in the wind here. I think we'll see the 150s soon enough with good retail figures still pouring in.

Disc: BGR

THE KING says while the action was going on yesterday KING was in hospital haveing an EYE operation which will stop him being one eye about BGR.. :D

Regards THE KING

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

The full details of their 1/2 year result will make interesting reading

From todays little gem that seems to give everybody a lot of confidence that all is well one can't overlook that NPBT margins this 1/2 year is only going to be 7% odd compared to nearly 12% last year.

In spite of improved gross margins those extra operating costs most be pretty high.

Lets see what they actually come up with


Even with improved gross margins (up nearly 2% points) NPBT margins down to 7.7% (last year same period 10.6%)

The extra expense base really hurting ... that seems to be the problem

And this years announcement pretty brief compared to previous ones ... meaning a sad story not to be told???

THE KING says with all the action around Acces at present is taking the true light of our real Bis making money Share Wise yesterdays BGR half year report was at best good..

As expected margins and such where down but we had been told in advance so lets look at the good bits,:-
Nine new stores up and running, with a big store to open at Riccarton, christchurch in November then Takanini and relocate Whangarei..
Best bit $33.3 million in cash and NO borrowings.
Div 2.75 cents same as last year but a Good one.:D

To sum up BGR is making profits where Wharehouse is bleeding,
second half will be better BGR the BUY stock. [8D]

As Mr Ingham Chickins says in his add "Lovem"

Wathing from Australia Wellinton 6th Oct THE KING

THE KING says now that Warehouse has dumped its news about its Debt position you can BUY 3 BGR Stock with the bigger yield, NO Debt, for the price of 1 Ware stock, The only way to GO..[^]

THE KING better to not buy either Money in bank better than these two

[huds]

Still no word from Duke on a new acquisition, start-up. Building depot's up for sale;)

THE KING says ENIGMA it is NO good sitting on your hands with money in the bank as life will slip by and you get no where as the limited market in NZ. if your got to have a go so if these two Co`s are the only goers then THE KING backs BGR.. [^]

[Paper Tiger]

The Paper Tiger says:
If these two companies the only goers then leave your money in the bank. :D

[duncan macgregor]

HUDS, The last thing BGR need is the building depo. GOTTA agree with paper tiger leave the money in the bank. Look out for worse to come with those two companies. MACDUNK

[Bling_Bling]

Money in the bank is better than flushing it down the toilet. Ask Mr Watson about PRG, he will tell ya.

THE KING says whats all this about a building depo..?? [^]

[huds]

"Briscoes Homeware Depot"
Has a nice ring to it.
Could think of worse things to buy...silly sollys, crazy clints:D:D

THE KING says Thanks huds you mean like leaveing New Zealand :-
" Last man to get off depot put out delight.".. [^]

[duncan macgregor]

HEY KING, The bloody lights are coming under HORSTRALIAN control we can turn them off when we arrive.

[Burgerbun]

Anyone worked out why this company SP is going nowhere?

Whats the forecast FY?

$15m......?? Market Cap around $280m


Whats the PE again King???

Under 10 isnt it[?][:p][:0][B)]:D;)





..and still a little lord waits

[Paper Tiger]

quote:
Anyone worked out why this company SP is going nowhere?


A general lack of confidence that Briscoes management is doing the right things to pick this company up?
Declining same store sales despite increased consumer spending?
Lower consumer spending (predicted for a while but yet to materialise yet) in the future?

I thought I was going to buy into this lot months ago, but I don't believe they are going anywhere, I need a sign from the Duke.

Disc: I bought some stuff in Rebel Sports yesterday. ;)

[Gryffyn]

NZ stocks: All eyes on the kiwi as some set to win and some lose

20.09.2004
By ELLEN READ
The enduring strength of the kiwi will be a focus of the New Zealand stock market this week.

First NZ Capital strategist Jason Wong has looked at the impact on 18 listed companies that have US or Australian dollar exposure.

"For the majority of companies covered with significant currency exposure, an appreciating NZD-USD cross rate is positive for earnings due to lower import costs," Wong said.

Of those he looked at with such exposure, eight benefit from a strong kiwi (Air NZ, Briscoe Group, CanWest Mediaworks, Nuplex, Pumpkin Patch, Sky TV, Vertex and the Warehouse). And five suffer (Carter Holt Harvey, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Sanford, Skellmax and Tenon).

With the Australian dollar the situation is not as favourable because just CanWest Mediaworks is seen as benefiting, says Wong.

Carter Holt, Feltex, Fisher & Paykel Appliances, Fletcher Building, Guinness Peat Group, Nuplex, Pumpkin Patch, Vertex and Waste Management will all feel the pinch of the transtasman cross-rate as all are geared to exports.

Wong said he had ignored the impact of hedging - as this usually simply delayed the ultimate impact on earnings.

"With the risk of the New Zealand dollar holding up stronger for longer, there is clearly a downside risk to many companies earnings which are negatively impacted by a strong NZD-USD or NZD-AUD," he said.

Pumpkin Patch - one of the companies Wong studied - reveals its annual result on Friday. With the domestic economy robust, the company upgraded its profit forecast in July.

Raising eyebrows coming so soon after listing, the children's wear retailer said it saw after-tax profit for the year to July 31 of $7.5 million to $8 million, compared with its April forecast of $4.03 million.

Chairman Greg Muir said then that the group had benefited from a buoyant three months in Australia, New Zealand and Britain. Discounting in Australasia was less than expected and tax losses were also used in Britain.

The shares certainly seem to be expecting good news. They closed at $2.00 on Friday, sharply higher than the $1.25 June listing price.

Hallenstein Glassons is another retailer to have upgraded its profit forecast in recent months. The business now expects its full-year profit to "significantly exceed" the previous year's profit of $11.46 million.

Hallensteins has reported profit of between $11.3 million and $11.5 million for the past four years. Announcing the upgrade, in early July, the company attributed it to good winter trading and gains on the sale of properties in Nelson and Christchurch.

Finally, discount broker Direct Broking has released a research report on meat company Affco, rating it a buy. Affco shares closed at 41c on Friday.

[Gryffyn]

yay, some good news for BGR amongst that. I still think they are well placed with their NZ store growth to recover nicely over the next 6 mths-year.

THE KING says Good Work Gryffn that the type of reporting we require on this site more about the Bis and less about NON BIS.. [^]

[winner69]

High dollar not necessary good for BGR and other retailers stuck in cost plus mode - only winners are consumers

Cheaper imports under this scenario leads to price deflation which on top of rising expenses is bad news .... unless one can sellheaps more units

BGR has a rising expense base - wages, store overheads etc - while getting a little less for each unit sold (even though gross margin percrentage might be increasing slightly this year)

BGR fell into the trap of giving the price reductions on cheaper imports to the consumers instead of keeping some for themselves. Maybe WHS pushed them into doing so and they both are now suffering.

Big problem and remember that they need to 24% better in the 2nd half of the year to reach last years level of profitability.

Might be wrong but I doubt that possible

Good luck anyhow Gryffyn and The King - at least the market has plenty of cash to find a home for and BGR might get some of it to keep the price up.

[Gryffyn]

The Rebels are coming ...

16.10.2004
By GEORGINA BOND
Briscoe Group plans a franchise of mini Rebel Sport stores throughout the country to extend its market beyond the cities.

Managing director Rod Duke said the smaller stores would carry a full range of clothing and footwear and would be ideal in shopping malls.

The expansion is to start around Easter.

Duke said the franchise would be ideal in towns that were too small for a large-format Rebel Sports store.

But some towns would be able to accommodate both, and the company saw significant niche opportunities in many larger centres.

New large format Rebel Sport stores would continue to be opened.

The group is due to open its twentieth store in Riccarton, Christchurch, next month.

"I think we can get the [store] network up to 50 pretty quickly," said Duke.

Whether the new franchises would carry the Rebel name or a different name would be determined store-by-store.

Duke said there had been several inquiries for franchised Rebel Sport in recent years.

Business had been a bit tough this year but the group was coming into its busy season.

[Gryffyn]

I'm surprised this has seen so little comment. BGR taking an organic and approach to growth. Cash rich. Well off their all-time highs but have found support above the lows. Economy strong. Good buying surely?

Disc: Recent BGR buyer

THE KING says the Rebel side of the Bis has never impress that much
the idea of franchise at first seems OK but there moving to very marginal places so mite not make good money, THE KING feels Mr D is just letting the whole BGR ordinary bis MATURE.. [^][^]

[^]THE KING says Mr Duke done it again Doubled the Sporting shops in one hit, Great pity Warehouse management cant keep with him he is in NEW ZEALAND.. [^][^][^]

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

[^]THE KING says Mr Duke done it again Doubled the Sporting shops in one hit, Great pity Warehouse management cant keep with him he is in NEW ZEALAND.. [^][^][^]


It is not a done deal yet, your majesty.

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

[^]THE KING says Mr Duke done it again Doubled the Sporting shops in one hit, Great pity Warehouse management cant keep with him he is in NEW ZEALAND.. [^][^][^]


Yeah, Duke needs a new brand to flog seeing as he ruined the first one with all that discounting. ;) [V]

So much potetential.....

[Barrel Scraper]

Well, I said to me missus that with the whole Franschise deal I wouldn't like to be holding a Sterling sports store - but this latest news... well... lets hope it goes through - buying out the competition - looks like the start of a monopoly to me - but lets hope the commerce commission doesn't find out !!!

As for ruining the first brand with discounting Bubble boy - I agree... but Mr Duke is addressing that one as we speak

Lets hope this "Sterling" deal goes through - Go Briscoes !!!!

[Gryffyn]

hardly a monopoly yet but a very strong position for BGR :-)

Disc: BGR

[winner69]

What does Briscoes get out of holding the Stirling frnachise?

Probably only pay $2-$3M fir this - maybe a lot less because isn't this a bit f a fire sale

Turnover $40M - they collect 5-6% in fees - say $2M which they are compelled (for the good of the owner operator frnachisees) spend a fair chink on advertising the concept etc.

Are the synergies that much? Or are suppliers going to bet screwed a bit more for the whole group?

Maybe some Stirling stores are strategically located and will be turned in Rebel shops ... but what does Briscoes get out of this.

[Burgerbun]

This looks a bit more interesting for BGR.

Brand power, marketing...we kiwis love our sports.

In what order do NZers see the chain sports stores.

Sterling 2nd spot?


What is the customer service and staff knowledge at these stores like currently.
This must be a very important factor, no one likes talking to staff about their passion when they know less than you.

Im very interested myself.
What location do investors see as possible spots?


Bit out of the picture over here.
Thanks

[Gryffyn]

Certainy are a few S sports in non-rebel towns and cities.

C9 - I have found most of the sports stores a mixed bag for expertise. Often they have some who really knows there stuff - logical place for a sports oriented jock to be is a sports store of course - but then you also get the retail chain fresh outa skool sales dorks who know nothing.

Do your own research on the net or with club experts and then go to rebel sport is usually the best bet - they usually win on price if notjing else.

[Bling_Bling]

I reguarly visit both Rebel and Stirling stores. Nice to have both large and small stores. Abit like the supermarkets vs the dairies. I like what I see, but it is still early days. Bling will keep a close eye on this one.

[Gryffyn]

BB - also like what I see. Ask a few people to name three sports stores and after Rebel and Stirling most are stumper for a third.

Disc: BGR and considering a few more in the low 140s

THE KING says Well done Mr D and good to see a riseing s/price AGAIN.. [^][^]

[Gryffyn]

Hey King - you spouted a diatribe against WHS because so many shares were in the hands of top 20 holders. how come you don't think that is a negative for BGR?

THE KING says BGR as to WHS are not the same as follows:-

BGR has one major holder Mr D 70% and is not a SELLER..

WHS has 20 top S/holders Mr T holds 27.61% but not a Seller, But the other 19 DO and they DO it well flog of to small people, they cant help themselves all that advertisement TV,Radio & papers it all looks great to them and they BUY..

BGR has smart Management and Gerry H as well who will not drop the odd million or too shares on you to fill up there life style, SIMPLE... [^][^][^]

[Bling_Bling]

Rebel + Stirling = potential winner. But I still have doubts about the marketing of Briscoes and their products. Duke needs to get Briscoes going again with new marketing plan with new image and more variety of products in the store. Take a look at Farmers, it is getting a onces over with new owner that is looking very good.

Make Briscoes more colourful and happy (like Freedom and Pumpkin Patch). Put in more new and innovative products so regular customers are not bored of the same stuff.

[Binklebonk]

I've jumped onboard as I believe the Stirling deal should be worth an awful lot to them. They already saw opportunity to roll out more Rebel and then to pick up Stirling (for probably a good price) they incrase the speed while lowering the cost and risk out of their growth plans. In the process they are likely to stimulate margins while being able to get scale efficiencies.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Binklebonk

I've jumped onboard as I believe the Stirling deal should be worth an awful lot to them. They already saw opportunity to roll out more Rebel and then to pick up Stirling (for probably a good price) they incrase the speed while lowering the cost and risk out of their growth plans. In the process they are likely to stimulate margins while being able to get scale efficiencies.



Nobody yet explained to me how BGR is going to make "an awful lot' out of Stirling

The owners own the $40M of sales - BGR only get a cut as the franchisor

Might be dim but where is the value in this for BGR that deserves heaps of excitment to make the share price go up

[Capitalist]

The Aunty Madge consensus is that the deal is worth 20c in terms of SP Winner. I'll stick to da horses.

[winner69]

So the long term value is about $6M to BGR .... about $500,000 a year. Hope Rod doesn't pay too much then

Thats what I would have thought and what my Uncle Arthur calculated

Big deal eh cap - a few good wins all penny's foals could be worth that

[Gryffyn]

Hey cap - aint 20c a good thing?

[Burgerbun]

Thanks Gryf for reply.

Seems this should create a bit of a monopoly in this area.

What was the main reason for the marked Rebel slowdown early this year? Same as Briscoes, too regular over discounting?



A *Sports Authority* in NZ

[Binklebonk]

[/quote]

Nobody yet explained to me how BGR is going to make "an awful lot' out of Stirling

The owners own the $40M of sales - BGR only get a cut as the franchisor

Might be dim but where is the value in this for BGR that deserves heaps of excitment to make the share price go up


[/quote]

It's not just the franchisor cut though is it?
Softening in competition
Buying power
Sharing of fixed costs like advertising,systems,corporate functions over a wider base.

[Gryffyn]

Agree BB but then I'm in BGR and getting more.

THE KING says just read AUS INSIDE THE MARKET tip and says BGR will rise to $1.63 get them will you CAN.. [^][^]

[Gryffyn]

wow 1.63 - not 1.62 or 1.64? That's very accurate info you have ;)

THE KING says the rate stated $1.62 up 1 cent to $1.63 gettem while you CAN.. [^]

[Gryffyn]

Already got em King :-)

[winner69]

When is this Stirling thing going to get finalised?

Do you think BGR will pay more than $2M for the franchise?

Will the 20 cents happen when the next announcement is made?

THE KING says what ever happens its put life bacK into this STOCK buy them while you CAN.. [^][^][^]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says what ever happens its put life bacK into this STOCK buy them while you CAN.. [^][^][^]


saying it has been dead for a while then?

How did the Mel Cup go you keen follower of horses

THE KING says got the Q First & Second but mist Third Payed $2730 well next Tuesday Otaki be THERE.. [^][^][^]

[Gryffyn]

BGR
08/11/2004
QUARTER

REL: 0830 HRS Briscoe Group Limited

QUARTER: BGR: Briscoe Group 3rd Quarter Sales to 31 October 2004

The directors of Briscoe Group Limited announce that unaudited sales for the
three months ended 31 October 2004 were $71.6 million, being 5.01% higher
than the $68.2 million reported for the third quarter of last year.

On a same store basis, the group's sales for the quarter were 2.67% behind
those for the third quarter of last year.

The gross margin percentage generated for the third quarter was slightly
below the margin for the same quarter last year, however the year-to-date
gross margin percentage remains significantly above the equivalent figure for
last year.

Briscoes Homeware sales increased 7.33% to $49.3 million while Rebel Sport
sales increased by 0.22% to $22.4 million. On a same store basis, Briscoes
Homeware sales increased by 3.22% for the quarter, while Rebel Sport sales
were 14.48% behind last year.

The relocation to new premises during the quarter of the Briscoes Homeware
stores in Tauranga and Whangarei, together with the new store opening at
Takanini, increased total store area to 66,367 sq.m and brought the number of
Briscoes Homeware stores to 32. Rebel Sport store numbers increased to 19
with total store area now at 39,054 sq.m, with the opening of a new Whangarei
store in August.

The Group is on schedule to add a further two stores in November with the
opening of a Briscoes Homeware and a Rebel Sport store in Riccarton,
Christchurch.

The October quarter sales figure takes unaudited group sales for the nine
months ended 31 October 2004 to $210.3 million, an increase of 0.56% over the
$209.1 million reported for the first nine months of last year. Briscoes
Homeware sales declined 1.76% during this period, while Rebel Sport sales
increased 5.75%.

Rod Duke, Group Managing Director, said, "This third quarter has produced a
mixed bag of results. We are pleased with the growth in Briscoes Homeware
sales but a little disappointed with the softening of Rebel Sport's sales,
especially after such a strong second quarter.

"For this quarter, we had forecast to make up some of the $3 million bottom
line shortfall experienced for the first half-year, however profitability has
been pretty much static for the current quarter, year on year. The extent of
any recovery of the profit shortfall from the first half, is now dependent on
satisfactory trading during and in the lead up to Christmas."

Monday 8 November 2004
Contact for enquiries:

Rod Duke
Group Managing Director
Tel: (09) 815 3737
End CA:00107620 For:BGR Type:QUARTER Time:2004-11-08:08:30:20

[winner69]

Last paragraph not a good read .... sounds like all that is left is hope .... and a great Xmas season

"For this quarter, we had forecast to make up some of the $3 million bottom line shortfall experienced for the first half-year, however profitability has been pretty much static for the current quarter, year on year. The extent of any recovery of the profit shortfall from the first half, is now dependent on satisfactory trading during and in the lead up to Christmas."

[Gryffyn]

Yeah, although as I'm still looking at this stock as a recovery vehicle I'll be happy to pick up some more in the 130s. The good news may not be happening yet but i still believe that this share is underpriced for its position and potential in the market.

Disc: BGR

[nelehdine]

Brave man Gryffyn ... could be "dead money" for a few more months yet ... bit like PRG and WHS. A stark contrast to HLG,MHI, and HBY. When a retail chain starts struggling it can take one hell of an effort to turn it round ... I'd pick BGR shares trade at $1 before they trade at $2 again ....

[rawdata]

Rod Duke has built up a track record of over-promising and under-delivering, save for BGR's first 6 months after listing. And that's probably because of some sand-bagging leading to the IPO.

Today's results confirm that he has still to learn from his past mistakes. The man is no retailer and he is also no market savvy MD of a public listed company.

[Gryffyn]

nele - I'll probably be out before either of those prices :-)

Small speculative stake but it keeps me interested while waiting with TWR and GPG.

[winner69]

Took a hammering as well yesterday after the WHS news

Both are in the same boat - more footprint ... static sales at best ... declining profits

The Herald had this article quoting soem guru saying specialist sports shops (ie high end branded sporting goods) might be doomed

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/businessstorydisplay.cfm?storyID=3608268

With Rebel same stores sales down 18% in the 1st quarter, down 2% in the 2nd quarter and down 14% in the 3rd quarter that guru might be on to something

[Bling_Bling]

It seems to me that the whole NZ retail market is struggling. This is clearly reflected in most retail stocks announcements. I really dont see a turn around until we see some changes in interest movement. The only retail stock I currently hold is Pumpkin Patch, which I am happy to hold long term.

Bling Bling says How I love to play in my Punkin Patch...[8][8][8]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by rawdata


Rod Duke has built up a track record of over-promising and under-delivering, save for BGR's first 6 months after listing. And that's probably because of some sand-bagging leading to the IPO.

Today's results confirm that he has still to learn from his past mistakes. The man is no retailer and he is also no market savvy MD of a public listed company.


Agree rawdata - over promising and under delivering has been Rods way

Give him his due though - previous announcements have had phrases like 'will' expect' and 'should' recover or pickup or whatever but the latest one doesn't actually promise anything.

It is just a clear statment like '... recovery of the profit shortfall....is NOW dependent on satisfactory trading .... Christmas"

Yeah we knew that Rod ... can we assume that BGR sales will be unsatisfactory .. chances are they will be

[winner69]

THE KING mate - was that you panicking and dumping 500,000 of these darlings at 127 on the close tonite

Must be about the lowest BGR has ever been been?

Didn't they get to 283 once?

[winner69]

After the H1 results somebody pointed out that to achieve the same profit over the whole year as the year before BGR needed to do 24% better in the 2nd half

With that 'static' 3rd quarter it seems that they now need to do about 40% better than last year in the 4th quarter.

No wonder Rod was a bit more subdued in his comments

[Paper Tiger]

Quite a fall over the couple of days, perfectly justified IMHO.
A reasonable yield for the moment, but this company is not getting it's act together. When there is an obvious change in the way this company operates then I might buy in, but for the next year or so I think BGR is a spectator sport only.

THE KING says Mr Rod Duke was born in Soth Australia so you know what that makes HIM... [^][^][^]

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Mr Rod Duke was born in Soth Australia so you know what that makes HIM... [^][^][^]


....a Soth[[:I]] Australian [:0]

[huds]

There have been a few companies mentioned in this thread recently so I thought I’d do a little comparison at present value.

They are as follows, company, price, dividend yield & p/e

BGR___$1.29__8.1%__8.93 :)
PRG___$2.08___NIL___5.68 [}:)]
HLG___$3.74__7.8%__12.84 [B)]
WHS__$3.75__5.8%__18.73 [xx(]
HBY___$5.95__8.8%__14.32 [xx(]
MHI___$8.30__3.8%__21.22 [:0]

Basically the figures speak for themselves but I thought the visual aids might help...

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by cloudnine

:D:D:D

told you both to buy MHI suckers;)

compare the charts boys.

PPG, BGR, WHS....

MHI streaks ahead in just 2 months.[^]





the King has now lost his skin:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

raw flesh exposed everywhere[:0]

ouch[^]

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Mr Rod Duke was born in Soth Australia so you know what that makes HIM... [^][^][^]


well...........A soth??????????????

[Burgerbun]

or HUDS

another comparison

Since our call on MHI in March and Kings on BGR (which I told him 50x that he couldnt even calculate the PER)


anyway

MHI UP 68%

BGR DOWN 14%

WHS.....well[xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]

A 82% differential in just over 7 months

I rest my case Your M.

You are now renounced and will perform as court jester in front of Clounine. Your NEW KING

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
[:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]
[^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]

THE KING says Nine where would we be Without you,, MUCH BETTER..[^][^][^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

KING, you have every right to be wrong at least you say what you think. Your loyal subject Macdunk.

[Benlamnz]

I reckon the KING stll have a pretty full coffer considering the millions of MAp he owns.

[Gryffyn]

BGR12/11/2004RELINT REL: 1250 HRS Briscoe Group Limited RELINT: BGR: Disclosure Notice A. Disclosure obligation (tick box to note which disclosure obligationapplies) Ongoing disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, E, F and G of this notice) B. Preliminary1. NameStephen Victor Salmon 2. NZX company code of issuerBGR Name of issuerBriscoe Group Limited 3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable)N/A 4. Position you hold in the issuerGeneral Manager - Rebel Sport 5. Date of this disclosure notice12/11/2004 C. Nature of relevant interest6. Name of registered holder(s) of security (as required by regulation 6A(b)or regulation 7(b))Stephen Victor Salmon 7. Class and type of security (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8) Ordinary Shares 8. Nature of relevant interest in security (as required by regulation 6A (a)or regulation 7(a))Beneficial D. Date (for initial disclosure)9. Date of disclosure obligation (as required by regulation 6C) E. Transaction (for ongoing disclosure)10. Date of last disclosure (as required by regulation 13)8/10/2004 11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s) (as required by regulation 9) 3/11/2004 12. Number of transactions (as required by regulation 12(2), if applicable) 1 13. Nature or type of transaction (as required by regulation 11(1)(a)) Sale of Ordinary Shares 14. Consideration (as required by regulation 10)$1.42 per Share 15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type (as requiredby regulation 8)10,000 16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal (as required byregulation 11(1)(b))10,000 F. Extent of relevant interest17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type (as required byregulation 6B or regulation 8)0End CA:00107901 For:BGR Type:RELINT Time:2004-11-12:12:50:20

[Gryffyn]

Never a good look!

[Gryffyn]

How did he get away with selling on the 3rd with results out on the 8th?

Small no of shares admittidley but surely he had an inkling of the result and would have been bound not to trade in this period.

[Westie]

hmmmm seems a rather fortuitous trade.

[Gryffyn]

I would have used another expression myself...

[Burgerbun]

From the post gryf...

it seems he held 10,000 only (securities held prior)

Is that all the GM had??

if so, he sold the lot (sml as it is)

GM holds none???

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Nine where would we be Without you,, MUCH BETTER..[^][^][^][^]


yip, da truth hurts:D

[Gryffyn]

Indeed C9 I think its a bad look as per my post.

To play devil's advocate (to myself even) it may be innocent because what has he gained - 10c a share = $1000? Chicken feed really and he surely was cogniscent of the how it would look (if he really knew the result).

I just thought there was a rule about officers of the company trading within a certain period of results - certainly was when I was in UK involved with start-ups.

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Never a good look!


Just after the Sterling announcement and just before the profit announcement. Couldnt have timed it better. ;)

Some much for honest management, eh COURT JESTER (aka WAN KING)? Who's next, Harvey or the Duke?[xx(][xx(]

[Burgerbun]

In the US and Japan, definetly.

I advised on Amazon.com options here and they have a TINY window to dispose (employees only)

something like 2 weeks and only after a 1/4 ly ANN.



Still NOT enforced here strictly enough!!!!

[Gryffyn]

Agreed.

[winner69]

That Stirling Sports thing not come to anything?

No news for a while ... BGR really needs that 20 cents it was to bring ... or is that already built into the price

[Gryffyn]

I hope not.

[Gryffyn]

Briscoe Group Limited Announcement (issued @ 9:15am)
BGR03/12/2004RELINT REL: 0915 HRS Briscoe Group Limited RELINT: BGR: Disclosure Notice Ongoing disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, E, F and G of this notice) B. Preliminary1. NameRodney Adrian Duke 2. NZX company code of issuerBGR Name of issuerBriscoe Group Limited 3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable)N/A 4. Position you hold in the issuerGroup Managing Director 5. Date of this disclosure notice3/12/2004 C. Nature of relevant interest6. Name of registered holder(s) of security (as required by regulation 6A(b)or regulation 7(b))Portfolio Custodian Ltd 7. Class and type of security (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8) Ordinary Shares 8. Nature of relevant interest in security (as required by regulation 6A (a)or regulation 7(a))Non-Beneficial D. Date (for initial disclosure)9. Date of disclosure obligation (as required by regulation 6C) E. Transaction (for ongoing disclosure)10. Date of last disclosure (as required by regulation 13)3/05/2004 11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s) (as required by regulation 9) 30/11/2004 12. Number of transactions (as required by regulation 12(2), if applicable) 1 13. Nature or type of transaction (as required by regulation 11(1)(a)) Purchase of Ordinary Shares 14. Consideration (as required by regulation 10)$1.31 per Share 15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type (as requiredby regulation 8)157,500,000 16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal (as required byregulation 11(1)(b))500,000 F. Extent of relevant interest17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type (as required byregulation 6B or regulation 8)158,000,000

[Gryffyn]

Duke buys half a mill at 131 :-) That's a reasurring sign.

[Gryffyn]

BGR03/12/2004RELINT REL: 0914 HRS Briscoe Group Limited RELINT: BGR: Disclosure notice Ongoing disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, E, F and G of this notice) B. Preliminary1. NameAlaister John Wall 2. NZX company code of issuerBGR Name of issuerBriscoe Group Limited 3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable)N/A 4. Position you hold in the issuerDeputy Managing Director 5. Date of this disclosure notice3/12/2004 C. Nature of relevant interest6. Name of registered holder(s) of security (as required by regulation 6A(b)or regulation 7(b))Alaister John Wall 7. Class and type of security (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8) Ordinary Shares 8. Nature of relevant interest in security (as required by regulation 6A (a)or regulation 7(a))Beneficial D. Date (for initial disclosure)9. Date of disclosure obligation (as required by regulation 6C) E. Transaction (for ongoing disclosure)10. Date of last disclosure (as required by regulation 13)2/12/2004 11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s) (as required by regulation 9) 30/11/2004 12. Number of transactions (as required by regulation 12(2), if applicable) 1 13. Nature or type of transaction (as required by regulation 11(1)(a)) Sale of Ordinary Shares 14. Consideration (as required by regulation 10)$1.31 per Share 15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type (as requiredby regulation 8)720,000 16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal (as required byregulation 11(1)(b))500,000 F. Extent of relevant interest17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type (as required byregulation 6B or regulation 8)220,000End CA:00108905 For:BGR Type:RELINT Time:2004-12-03:09:14:56

[Gryffyn]

But then again it was from another dir.

THE KING says this not a GOOD sign for BGR as the public section is small now and to remove more is to revert to Private owership again,
The trouble is NZ mood against shopkeepers is very low at the moment and compition has caught up to available customers WHS & BGR have in the past worked on the growth factor today there is NO more growth to GROW..[^]

Hate to brag but Smiths City has a differant approach with 5 Divisions from New sales, Second hand sales,Repear work, Big ticket sales & Development work this buffers the current MOOD... [^][^]

Watching from Australia THE KING

[Gryffyn]

In this case as it was intra-director I don't think the liquidity is that adversely affected.

BGR has growth plans re Stirling Sports I thought.