View Full Version : Daily Signals Diary - Niki 225
The signals given here are based on the pattern recognition system mentioned in the S & P thread and are posted in order to test the system in real time. Undoubtedly elements of the system will require adjustment as time progresses, possibly the SAR trading rules. We are paper trading for now. Niki is more volatile, so bigger profits and bigger losses are possible.
System rules are currently.
Minimum 2 contracts per trade.
Maximum 2 trades running at any one time.
Back checking into December 03 has given the following trades.
8 DEC
Entered Short 10281.
Sell half position at 9997 - triggered 10DEC. Profit 284 points.
12DEC.
Balance 50% of position stopped out at 10168 SAR (Stop and Reverse). Profit 113 points.
12DEC.
New position from SAR.
LONG at 10168. Sell half position at 10488.
Triggered 15DEC. Profit 320 points. 50% of position remains in the market.
Diary for 9 JAN 04.
Position in the Market
Partial Position LONG from 12DEC03.
Place SAR @ 10700 to go short. Thereby securing around a 532 points per contract overall on the 50% balance of this position. Stops have been tightened by 110 points.
Place stop loss @ 10955 if triggered short by SAR.
CURRENT TOTALS
Position Short 8 December. Closed.
Average +198 points per contract.(Min 2)
Position Long 12 December. 50% Remains Open.
Current Average +431 points per contract.
Running Total since 8 Dec03.
+1249 points = approximately NZ$8743. (Based on the minimum 2 contracts).
Contract is traded in Yen.
Deposit per contract approx $NZ5000.
Profit per point approx $NZ7.
Please remember.
Futures trading is very risky.
You can lose all or more of your initial investment.
No trading recommendations or advice is being given here.
The information is for entertainment only and is to be construed
as basic market commentary.
No claims are made!
Trade at your own risk.
If you are interested follow along and judge for yourself.
Log for 12 JAN 04.
Amending Parameters.
Position in the Market
Partial Position LONG from 12DEC03.
Move stop to 10727 thereby securing around a 559 points ($NZ3913) per contract overall on the 50% balance of this position.
New Position.
Cancel SAR @ 10700 and go short @ 10700 on sell stop.
If filled place stop loss @ 10975.
Take profits on half the position at 10400.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer in the first post.
National Holiday:
Japanese financial markets are closed Monday, Jan. 12, a national holiday. Previous posted figures still apply until amended.
Log for 14 JAN 04.
Position in the Market
Partial Position LONG from 12DEC03.
Stop remains at 10727 thereby securing around
559 points ($NZ3913) per contract overall on
the 50% balance of this position if closed on stop.
New Short Position - has not been triggered yet.
Amending Stop loss figure.
Go short @ 10700 on sell stop.
If filled place stop loss @ 11040.
Take profits on half the position at 10400.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 15 JAN 04.
[u]Current Position in the Market</u>
Partial Position LONG from 12DEC03.
Stop remains at 10727 thereby securing around
559 points ($NZ3913)per contract overall on
the 50% balance of this position if closed on stop.
Pending Orders
New Short Position - has not been triggered.
Go short @ 10700 on sell stop.
If filled place stop loss @ 11040.
Take profits on half the position at 10400.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Nikkie Info and charting can be found here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225&d=t
Log for 16 JAN 04.
[u]Current Position in the Market</u>
Partial Position LONG from 12DEC03. NOW CLOSED.
Profit taken at 10727 thereby securing around
559 points ($NZ3913) per contract on
the 50% balance of this position.
Pending Order
New Short Position - triggered.
Short from 15 JAN @ 10700.
Stop loss amending to 10966.
Take profits on half the position amended to 10430.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 19 JAN 04.
[u]Current Position in the Market</u>
Short from 15 JAN @ 10700.
Stop loss 10966.
Taking profits on half position @ 10430.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 20 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Short from 15 JAN @ 10700. CLOSED.
Stop loss 10966 triggered.
Loss 266 points.
Under the original SAR rule
we are now long from 10966.
New Open Position
Long from 16 Jan 04 @ 10966.
Stop loss 10766 without SAR.
Taking a profit on half position at 11236.
(Under the alternative rule the
system would have been long 10938
with a half sell at 11196).
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 21 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Open Position
Long from 16 Jan 04 @ 10966.
Stop loss 10766 without SAR.
Taking a profit on half position at 11236.
(Under the alternative rule the
system would have been long 10938
with a half sell at 11196).
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 22 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Open Position
Long from 16 Jan 04 @ 10966.
Moving Stop loss 10916 non SAR.
Taking a profit on half position at 11236.
(Under the alternative rule the
system would have been long 10938
with a half sell at 11196).
The system has signalled a possible
shorting opportunity ahead - currently
sitting @ 10790 on stop. Presently
waiting for actual confirmation.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 23 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Open Position
Long from 16 Jan 04 @ 10966.
Stop loss is at 10916 non SAR.
Maximum risk is 50 points per contract.
Taking a profit on half position at 11236.
(Under the alternative rule the
system would have been long 10938
with a half sell at 11196).
The system is still signalling a possible
shorting opportunity ahead - currently
indicating @ 10790 on stop. Presently
waiting for further confirmation.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 26 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Open Position
Long from 16 Jan 04 @ 10966.
Stop loss remains at 10916 (non SAR).
Maximum risk is 50 points per contract.
Taking a profit on half position at 11236.
(Under the alternative rule the
system would have been long 10938
with a half sell at 11196).
The system is still signalling a possible
shorting opportunity ahead now amended at
10920 which is close to our stop and may
indicate a SAR situation developing.
I am presently waiting for additional
confirmation before adding this position.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 27 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Flat
Long from 16 Jan 04 @ 10966.
was stopped out at 10916 (non SAR).
with a loss of 50 points per contract.
No new signal today.
Log for 28 JAN 04.
Current Position in the Market
Flat
As I mentioned previously -
the system was signalling a possible
shorting opportunity from 10920, and
if we had followed that signal we would
currently be short with a half sale
recommended at 10600.
A safer short would be from 10860
and sell half at 10600.
So lets see what happens, and if the
original signal was correct.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 29 JAN 04.
280/320 point per contract opportunity
on a half position ?
As I mentioned yesterday and previously -
the PR system had signaled a possible
shorting opportunity from 10920, and
if we had followed that signal we would
currently be short with a half sale
recommended at 10600. (10640 also figures).
I am currently waiting to see whether or not
this PR signal is correct. It has performed
well in back testing, so only time will tell.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
The current Nikkie chart also indicates a
possible long opportunity ahead.
These are the figures the system has given.
High risk entry 10955
Medium risk entry 11030
Low risk entry 11130
Taking profit on 50% @ 11275 all positions.
The ultimate aim for the system is that
eventually once perfected these signals
can be used to take short term profits on
half positions whilst allowing the balance to run.
For example on 10 contracts selling half at
300 points would yield approx NZ$10500 with
the balance left to run to further profit
or expiring at breakeven.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 30 JAN 04.
The system came within 26.55 points of its method 2
profit goal of 280 points mentioned yesterday, and I
will now be adjusting some parameters to enable these
short term profit opportunities to be banked.
The long entry points in yesterdays log will now need
amending but cannot be re-calculated until I see the action
from the next day or two.
Log for 2 FEB 04.
System signal still short from 10920, with a half sale
indicated at 10600. (10640 also figures).
(Friday Close 10783.61).
Today the pattern recognition system indicates a possible
rise to the 10942-11033 area followed by a fall. Mondays
action should give further clues.
I have also introduced some new techniques to the system
today which should give additional valuable information.
Log for 3 FEB 04.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920, with a half sale
indicated at 10600. The system has already taken a
profit on half the contracts this morning for a 320 point win
per contract, equivalant approx $2240 for each contract).
Half the position remains to run and is already in
profit with a stop loss now of 10902.
We had the slight rise yesterday which on Saturday I mentioned
could happen and a high reached of 10862. Maybe today we will get
the fall I also talked about. (Index has already been down to 10,562.76 earlier today).
No new system signals.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Nikkei System Results to date, based on 2 contracts.
December + 1276
January - 632
Feb (to date) + 320 (50% partial sale)
Current Total +964 /$6748 approx
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 4 FEB 04.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
yesterday for a 320 point win per contract.
Half the position remains to run and is in
profit 18 points with a stop loss @ 10902.
Yesterdays fall and Mondays slight price rise were
possibilities I mentioned on Saturday. Currently
there are some areas of support which may assist
in holding the current level so we could see some
sideways/upward movement today.
No new system signals.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 5 FEB 04.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on Monday for a 320 point win per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
stop loss levels is in profit approx 250 points.
Amending stop loss to take a profit
at end of session if index closes above 10670.
I may alter this figure once I see the first
few hours trading.
No new system signals.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 6 FEB 04.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on Monday for a 320 point win per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
stop loss levels is in profit approx 290 points.
Amending stop loss to take a profit
at end of session if index closes above 10630.
I may alter this figure later once I see the first
few hours trading.
No new system signals.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 9 FEB 2004.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on 2/2/04 for a 320 point win per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
stop loss levels is in profit approx 290 points.
Taking a profit at end of Mondays session if the
index closes above 10630.
No new system signals.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 10 FEB 2004.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on 2/2/04 for a 320 point gain per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
stop loss levels is in profit approx 320 points.
Amend. Taking a profit at end of Tuesdays session
if the index closes above 10600.
No new system signals.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
National Holiday:
Japanese financial markets are closed
Wednesday Feb. 11, a national holiday.
I will be tightening the stop for Thursday,
to try to get maximum profit possible out
of this position.
More info on that in the next 24hrs.
Log for 12 FEB 2004.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on 2/2/04 for a 320 point gain per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
target level is in profit an additional 459 points
(approx).
Amend. SAR at end of Thursdays
session if the index closes above 10461.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 12 FEB 2004 UPDATE.
Japanese stocks moved higher this morning after
Greenspan said the United States' economy was
growing vigorously.
Due to a possible reversal situation already
anticipated by the system signals we have the
SAR in place on a close above 10461.
(See previous post).
Currently the price is sitting @ 10486 - up 120
Log for 13 FEB 2004.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on 2/2/04 for a 320 point gain per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
target level is in profit an additional 320 points
(approx).
The short term signal is not at all clear therefore
I am amending the SAR entry as a precautionary
measure. As the day progresses I will be re-evaluating
the pattern.
Amend. SAR at end of Fridays
session if the index closes above 10600.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 16 FEB 2004.
Current Position
System signal 26/1 short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on 2/2/04 for a 320 point gain per contract.
Half the position remains to run and at current
target level is in profit an additional 320 points
(approx).
The planned exit/entry was missed on Friday by 27 points.
Amending. Taking the profit on the remaining
half when/if the index hits 10600 and going long (SAR)with
a target to sell half the new position at 10735.
Stop loss 10299 and exiting new position at close if index
is below 10413.
On re checking the chart I noticed I made a wrong judgement
on the PRS long entry signal/closing short sale last week and
this would have increased the shorts profit.
However, there is no going back to rectify mistakes so
all calculations will be taken as posted.
I am gradually amending the system as time passes so I
hope there will be a continual improvement in points scores.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 17 FEB 2004.
Current Position NEW.
System Signal 16 FEB Long from 10600
with a target to sell half at 10735.
Amend. Stop loss on a close below 10365.
System signal 26 FEB short from 10920.
The system took a profit on half the position
on 2/2/04 for a 320 point gain per contract.
As per yesterdays post the remaining half
was closed for a further 320 points.
Total gain on the minimum 2 contracts = 640 points.
This is a paper test of a new system.
Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 18 FEB 2004.
The Index moved ahead yesterday as indicated by the PRS
and closed with +101 points profit at 10701, and the days
high being just a few points below the original target.
Current Position.
System Signal 16 FEB - Long from 10600
Amending target to sell half position at 10809.
Amending Stop loss at close if below 10413.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 19 FEB 2004.
I moved the target yesterday, and regretted it later.
There would have been another 135 points profit (NZ$945)
per contract in the kitty if I had not shifted the goal posts.
Days high was 10790 - only 19 off the amended target but 65 above
the previous figure.
Current Position.
System Signal 16 FEB - Long from 10600
Amending. Selling half position at 10735.
Amending. Closing position at EOD if index
is below 10529.
I may change some of these figures later as I see
how the day progresses.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
System Signal 16 FEB - Long from 10600
Nikkie opened at 10745.40 so half the position was
closed for a profit of 145.40 points (NZ$1018) times number of contracts held.
Balance of position remains to run, but closing position at EOD
if index is below 10529.
Log for 20 FEB 2004.
Current Position.
System Signal 16 FEB - Long from 10600
Half the position was closed 19/2 for a profit of
145.40 points (NZ$1018) times number of contracts held.
Amending. On balance, SAR at EOD if index is below 10676.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 23 FEB 2004.
Current Position.
System Signal 16 FEB - Long from 10600
Half the position was closed 19/2 for a profit of
145.40 points (NZ$1018) times number of contracts held.
Amending. On half remaining balance of position,
SAR at EOD if index is below 10676, or add a half position
if index is closing above 10814
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 24 FEB 2004.
Current Position.
System Signal 16 FEB - 1/2 Position Long from 10600
System Signal 23 FEB - 1/2 Position Long from 10869
Target. Exiting 16 Feb balance when/if index reaches 11190.
Both positions exiting at close if index is below 10745.
(Note. Half the original 16 Feb position still remains open and
as per yesterdays post a new half position was added LONG on
close @ 10869. Half the original 16 Feb position was closed 19/2 for a profit of 145.40 points (NZ$1018) times number of contracts held).
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
error-amending
Both positions exiting at close if index is below 10745
Figure should read 10736 and go short
Log for 25 FEB 2004.
Current Position.
System Signal 24 FEB Short from 10645.
Taking a profit on half position at 10557.
Both long positions exited at close 24/2 @ 10645.
Results
System Signal 16 FEB - 1/2 Position Long from 10600 Profit 45 points
1/2 Position Long from 10600 closed 19/2 Profit 145.40 points
System Signal 23 FEB - 1/2 Position Long from 10869 Loss 224 points.
Overall there was a small loss of 33.60 points on these positions,
or approx NZ$235.2.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
in the first post.
Log for 26 FEB 2004.
Current Position.
System Signal 24 FEB Short from 10645.
Taking a profit on half position at 10557.
Exiting at close if index above 10728
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
Log for 27 FEB 2004.
Current Position - Flat.
System Signal 24 FEB Short from 10645.
Exit 27/2 at close 10815 sustaining a 170 pt loss
per contract.
N225 is a volatile mover and a number of system
parameters still need adjusting in order to minimise
losses involved with the whipsaw effects of this index.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
Log for 1 MAR 2004.
Current Position - Flat.
The system signals LONG from 16/23 Feb were now as we see obviously
correct, and the whipsaw effects of the recent minor retracement
prematurely caused an exit from what would have been a highly
profitable position. Testing the system in real time brings up teething problems
and allows for continual amendments and improvments to be made.
No new signal.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
System Performance - Feb04.
The PR system under test gave a profit of
266.60 points based on the minimum 2 contracts.
In future I will only post when the
system gives/amends a signal.
Nikkei Trading System Test - Update
System generated a short signal 9/3
on a close below 11439.04
Current position short MOC 10/3 @ 11433.24
Taking profit on 50% position @ 11188 if/when
available. 50% Balance - Trailing stop.
Nikkei Trading System Test - Update
Current position short from 10/3 @ 11433.24
Profit was taken on 50% position @ Friday open 11163 -
profit 270 pts - approx NZ$1890 per contract
50% Balance - Trailing stop.
Nikkei Trading System Test - Update
Current position short from 10/3 @ 11433.24
Selling 50% Balance MOC if above 11348.40
Nikkei Trading System Test - Update
50% Balance sold MOC yesterday @ 11436
for a small loss of 3 points.
Overall profit 267 points based on
the minimum 2 contracts.
Nikkei Trading System Test - Update
The PRS shows that there is a possibility the
Nikkei could try to move north again from here.
Therefore, an entry at this point in the day might be fruitful.
Currently trading at 11269.
Low of the day 11239 and now seems to have made a triple bottom
on the 15 minute chart.
Any major move below that will be viewed with caution and signal
a possible exit.
This is a paper test of a new pattern recognition
system (PRS).Please remember to read the red disclaimer
Update.
Nice move so far and 50% sold under the 320 rule,
@ 11619 giving a profit so far of 350 points per contract
The PRS signal now shows signs of a possible signal,
therefore keeping a tight stop on the 50% balance now.
Balance 50% position sold at close yesterday 11715
for an additional 446 points profit to add
to the 350 from the previous sale.
System Performance - Mar 04.
The PR system under test gave a profit in March of
1063 points ($NZ7440 total) based on the minimum 2
contracts held at any one time.
stormrose
02-04-2004, 12:14 AM
Nice.
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