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donnie
08-04-2006, 02:37 PM
Should see some good interest in Dyno Nobel over the next few weeks.
It just listed on friday.


Dyno Nobel blasts off as Big Air stalls
Email Print Normal font Large font By Ian Porter
April 8, 2006


THE float of the world's second-largest explosives maker, Dyno Nobel, lit a fuse under the rock-breaking sector, initiating a flurry of buying in both its shares and those of the market leader, Orica.

The surge of interest from investors lifted Dyno shares far above their issue price on Friday while Orica powered ahead to a share price record during the day.

The performance of the two companies defied a weakening trend across the market, which ended the day down a fraction from Thursday's record.

By the end of trade, Dyno had jumped from its issue price of $2.37 a share to close at $2.68, an impressive 13 per cent gain.

Orica also received sustained buying support, its share price gaining 44c or 1.8 per cent to $24.74, off an intraday high of $25.08.

Investors were keen to use the companies as a way into the mining and resources boom, which has powered the market's bull run.

In contrast to Dyno's debut, telecommunications provider Big Air closed steady with its 25c issue price on Friday after opening at 28.5c. The Big Air float raised $10 million for the company, which will promote use of wireless broadband and voiceover internet communications for corporate customers. But the days when a telco could excite the market may be over.

The surge in Dyno's share price pushed its market capitalisation to $2.16 billion, just short of breaking into the top 100 listed companies. A rise of a further few cents would allow it to consolidate a position in the top 100, which would mean index-linked investment funds would then have to top up.

Dyno's stellar debut came after strong demand for shares in the float forced the managers to scale back institutional and retail investor allocations. They were also able to take the unusual step of setting an issue price higher than the initial indicative range of $1.89 to $2.27.

A number of positive factors improved the outlook for Dyno during the float process, not least that the sharemarket was setting records almost every day.

In addition, the Australian dollar weakened against the US dollar, which will result in higher profits for Dyno when they are exchanged into local currency. Demand for Dyno shares was also assisted by a strong rise in the Orica share price during the float process.

The 44c added to Orica's share price on Friday brought its gains for the week to 6 per cent and swelled the company's market capitalisation to $7.59 billion.

In addition to having a larger explosives operation than Dyno, Orica is a major fertiliser producer through its 70 per cent stake in Incitec Pivot and is Australia's largest water purification and food additives company.

Orica leaped from second to first place in the world explosives market last year when it acquired much of Dyno's operations.

jackt
08-04-2006, 05:43 PM
Yes, there have been some interesting events occuring at the top end of ASX over the last twelve months. TTS claimed limelight last year. DXL matched that this year. But TLS is still quagmired.

davidrob
21-04-2007, 04:42 PM
DXL. Dyno Nobel.
Hi guys,

Dyno Nobel-- DXL-- Annual Report (reporting in US Dollars out of North America) Out now…. And benchmarking ROE (92%)-- and PE (lower than industry)-- versus Orica this is rather a simple putt iron 2.5 metres… the 3rd Hole…..

Global Explosives Manufacturer and Distributor—operating in Australia, North America—Canada and USA—and China.

Financial Results are…. and will be influenced ….primarily—imo—going forward—by Volumes of Demand from Metals, Energy and Construction materials—and Not—not--- the “price” on daily commodity markets on which they are traded.

Slightly-- Subtle but important distinction—in case of assessing DXL—imo.

Therefore—if you wired into the super-cycle theory of global demand going forward—from a broad macro view-point—and you like High Roe’s (90% +)-- and low PE combinations—together with massive daily liquidity—DXL might be worth a peek.—especially if you like & require-- strong high potential macro demand for what they do—going forward…....

My own view—and imo only—is it (DXL) will rise about 20- 25% + plus in next 6 weeks or so…

Personally, I reckon that Dyno Nobel—(DXL)—on my PERSONAL assessment only—and not as advice-- is seriously undervalued....but short short term--share price-- will be driven by massive Insto money Moving in and/or out of the stock

Kind Regards,

Robbo:)

Mothman
22-04-2007, 01:55 PM
Hi Robbo, I have a couple of queries relating to Dyno Nobel:

After doing my own research on DXL I have a few concerns about investing in this business.

If you could provide your insight on these points it would much appreciated.

1. ROE is artificially high due to low equity and high debt levels.

In fact debt to debt + equity is huge at 69%. I consider anything over 50% highly leveraged. Most of this debt is at approx 5% interest rate.

2. 85% of earning from US Market

The impact of Aussie dollar going higher against USD will result in lower returns to Australian based investors

3. Auditors were paid $2M (this is extremely excessive for a company of their size)I work in a simliar sized business and we pay $250-350k for audit fees.

Some positives:

* Low PE ratio
* Fundies looking to reinvest gains from Orica could be tempted to invest more into Dyno Nobel

soulman
23-04-2007, 05:03 PM
My concern ATM, profit downgrade due to the high Aussie dollar. The AGM will provide all that update needed for me to hop in DXL.

davidrob
23-04-2007, 05:13 PM
DXL---

They are actually--when you think about it--as they Report IN US Dollars-- favourable for the Exchange Rate vis a vis--the US dollar --but take the point re the Leveraged Balance Sheet....and so one then needs to take a view re whether that leverage is justified vis a vis the Long Term Demand Outlook--ie Price of Credit/Debt is quite historically Low--versus Earnings?Profit Margins/ Demand picking up alll the slack etc....

That of course is on our view....

Remember they (DXL) are leveraged....to Mining Boom--Construction Boom in North America and Australia--not to a metal price per se.

Also compare the market caps of Orica and DYL--to see the upside --potential...about 12 months ago--I did the same thing with good upside comparing Worley (WOR) with MND-- and look who did well.... share price/growth in earnings-- wise in that period.

But again; you make excellent and fair points.

Regards,

Robbo:)

Skol
20-05-2007, 07:43 AM
Nice call Robbo, been holding these for some time. This company leveraged allright but return on equity is 34.5%, return on capital 14%, which means the leverage is providing a positive return for shareholders.

Dr_Who
29-08-2007, 04:37 PM
DXL jumped over 16% today. Incitec bought 13% of the company. Anyone know if this is gonna be a T/O on the entire company? The company looks cheap at these levels.


disc: holder of DXL

winner69
10-12-2007, 02:41 PM
Might be your lucky day with DXL in a trading halt

Maybe the IPL takeover finally come even though IPL not in a trading halt as well

Talking of IPL what a stellar stock to have had since Orica unshackled them from their fold middle of last year for about $20 .......... now over $100 in about 18 months ....... and no mention of this 5 bagger on sharetrader

Dr_Who
10-12-2007, 05:12 PM
Looks like trading halt till wed. Must be a BIG announcement! Hope it is a T/O, rumour have been going around. I bought this at IPO and the sp have done "F" all since it was listed.

soulman
11-12-2007, 05:28 PM
No....I thought a profit downgrade but nevertheless, troubled announcement that has been known before.

It was never going to be a corporate transaction with IPL since IPL was still trading. Ironically, IPL jumped big time today. Any merger announcement with DXL will definitely include IPL scrips and IPL must also be in trading halt if there is a transaction.

Anyway, DXL will have limited losses since IPL bought the 13% stake at about $2.40. Not a holder but somewhat interested now at $sub $2.

winner69
11-12-2007, 06:46 PM
Amazing that IPL now $106 ..... and ORI as DXLs main competitor as well as a ammonia nitrate manufacturer up 5% as well

Dr_Who
12-12-2007, 01:06 PM
DXL will be good buying again at below $2. Good trading stock!

soulman
12-12-2007, 05:55 PM
What would IPL do with their stake? Up it to 19.99%. They are taking a loss now on their stake, hence the irony of their rise yesterday. Of course, the reason why IPL and ORI went up yesterday was because they will benefit more from ammonium nitrate prices. ORI is in form again today. I missed my chances at $27.50.