CONTACT VERSUS TRUST POWER.

[duncan macgregor]

Trust power have this morning topped the price of contact energy.
Needless to say the macdunk predicting tea ladies got it right once again. Which one will the fountain bless?. Now that they are running neck and neck, who is big enough to come out and predict which company will have the highest sp including divies in a couple of years time and why?. I have a foot in both camps with a much larger stake riding on TPW. I think both will be winners with TPW winning the two horse race. macdunk

[k1w1]

Well I may or may not agree with your conclusion at least you clearly reached it by applying the rigorous methodology your system requires. Interesting how on both Baycorp and Contact you bought on a downtrend.

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI, With contact the bad news is all out with a chance of a further play later. The company was still running at a good profit, nothing fundamentely has changed. I was not a shareholder averaging down, when i should have sold earlier. I think the market placed the share where it belonged. I did buy trustpower when it was out of favour as well, and a dollar lower than contact sp at that time.
This sector is a must hold right now, the drop in contact sp i see as an opportunity to cover a wider field in this sector.
BAYCORP is another story of sector first, company second, with very little downside risk.
I have had a charmed run with my selections so perhaps its time i was wrong. macdunk

[k1w1]

Macdunk, the only charmed run you have is with your recollection of your selections.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Macdunk, the only charmed run you have is with your recollection of your selections.

C-MON KIWI do something exciting in the Sharetrader comp this weekend show old macdunk how you can pick them. Get on to the toothless one and change some of your dogs.
discl I already have why dont you just copy. macdunk

[Taijon]

From Mac Dunk:This sector is a must hold right now, the drop in contact sp i see as an opportunity to cover a wider field in this sector.

Mac Dunk, what are the tealadies saying about Vector? SP seems to be sliding away.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Taijon

From Mac Dunk:This sector is a must hold right now, the drop in contact sp i see as an opportunity to cover a wider field in this sector.

Mac Dunk, what are the tealadies saying about Vector? SP seems to be sliding away.

It is winter right now, the perception is rain, hail snow and gales, not exactly what a lines company wants. Wait until the sun shines, the birds sing in the trees people will look on vector in a different light. The price will get to low for what it is have patience. macdunk
Discl nil

[CJ]

I also hold both and dont care which is higher in 2 years, as long as they both give good returns.

Is the regulation risk still there with Vector (haven't heard anything to the contrary) which means they will never grow at more than their WACC.

[Treetops]

The question has plagued me for some time too Macdunk. And while I dilly dallied I watched my CEN nearly triple and TPW keep rising out of reach, not brave enough to keep my eggs in one basket. They are very different. The well hedged CEN with its balance of thermal and renewable hydro and geothermal and balance of retail and generation against its need for a reliable source of natural gas and rain. Then we have the tiny TPW with its small renewable only generation relying on rain and wind and susceptible to its vagary especially with its larger retail sales requiring it to hedge. This surely will cost it more eventually just as the fuel for Contacts thermal plants will go up even if a large gas find occurs soon. How far ahead TPW is hedged I don’t know. I have gone for both but more heavily with CEN but only due to having bought CEN from the IPO. I will buy more TPW on its lows. TPW has a low turnover and has three major stable shareholders and big dips are hard to find. The recent pressure from government on Telecom also causes concern. Will the same happen with electricity and is TPW better placed or not. I agree it’s a dam good sector to be in Macdunk and which co is better? Too complex to call with my experience I reckon. The high price of oil will encourage exploration and sooner the better for CEN. Buy the cheapest at the time on the lows. The price required to control CEN has risen; $9.50 wouldn’t tempt me, after all they talked the sp down at the last meeting. CEN looks cheap versus TPW right now. The elec. demand has surged recently and even though the inflows are good the lake storage is being run down again now at 85% of average to cope. The spot price has dropped recently presumably because they think the storage is adequate. Who can predict the weather? If the cold winter keeps up not only will the snow be enjoyable but also owning energy shares. It is a natural hedge for me anyway the time my children spend in the shower.:(
http://www.comitfree.co.nz/fta/price_index.summary
http://www.comitfree.co.nz/fta/ftaPage.hydrology http://www.comitfree.co.nz/fta/ftaPage.demand

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3716299a11,00.html
Treetops

[Treetops]

Govt releases papers on climate change policy

TUESDAY , 04 JULY 2006


The Government hopes to start making decisions about some aspects of climate change policy by the end of the year.

Climate Change Minister David Parker today released a raft of papers outlining policy formation with most options still on the table.

Mr Parker said in the short-term it was important New Zealand prepared for the effects of climate change that could not be avoided, such as drought and rising sea levels.

A more narrowly based carbon tax than the one dumped last December also remained on the table.

Mr Parker hoped a general energy strategy would be released by September and transport decisions made by the end of the year.



Government climate change policy under review
4/07/2006 15:32:03


The carbon tax is back on the agenda for the Government.


The original approach was ditched last December, with Labour not convinced that it had the numbers to get it through Parliament.


Energy Minister David Parker confirms that a narrower version of the tax is being considered under climate change policy.


He says it will not apply to all major sources of carbon dioxide emissions such as cars.


He says the new version for consideration would be targeted at the largest energy consumers, notably electricity generators.


The Greens are already highlighting problems with the Government's proposals to cut CO2 emissions and deal with climate change.


Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons says problems occur when attempts are made to set a carbon tax on just some part of the economy.


She says plants that co-generate both heat and electricity are more efficient than ordinary power stations, but if they have to pay a carbon tax on all of their fuel, they could end up at a comparative disadvantage.


Macdunk. Is all the bad news on the table re CEN? I can't fathom what Jeanette is saying here. I can't believe Labour would be so dumb to resurrect even a cutdown version. Even the Greens seem to agree. Does this tilt in favour of TPW or too soon to say?:(

Treetops

[duncan macgregor]

I think that labour is dumb enough for anything. TPW are in the box seat regardless, which makes it a safer bet than CEN. The country requires power in ever increasing quantities no matter how stupid the system becomes. CEN will still run at a profit, we simply cant afford to see it go under in an unworkable situation. This makes TPW the better investment in my book with hydro and wind generation.
macdunk

[Toddy]

Maybe they both will be winners. NZ normally follows the U.K trends inbetween 3-5 years later.

Electronic goods guzzling power

The amount of energy used by consumer electronics and domestic appliances in UK homes will double by 2010, said a report from the Energy Saving Trust.
It said the rise in popularity of computers and games consoles has created a huge extra need for power.
The large volume of sales has wiped out the effect of energy efficiency measures in new devices, it found.
By 2010 digital TV set-top boxes alone will cost up to £780m a year to run, said the trust.

[kura]

Winner in a two horse race, it would have to be TPW, why ? simply because we all know price of power is heading up, in the case of TPW, any increase in selling price will flow through to bottom line, whereas with CEN, some of price increase will be eaten up with higher cost of gas generation.

Macdunk, suggest you remind me of this prediction say 30 June next year !

[Treetops]

[quote]Originally posted by Toddy

Maybe they both will be winners. NZ normally follows the U.K trends inbetween 3-5 years later.

Electronic goods guzzling power

The amount of energy used by consumer electronics and domestic appliances in UK homes will double by 2010, said a report from the Energy Saving Trust.
It said the rise in popularity of computers and games consoles has created a huge extra need for power.
The large volume of sales has wiped out the effect of energy efficiency measures in new devices, it found.
By 2010 digital TV set-top boxes alone will cost up to £780m a year to run, said the trust.
[quote][i]

You are almost certainly right Toddy. My kids are proof of that with their games even though they have sport and musical interests as well. As a consumer it is an obvious hedge to have a decent energy component to my portfolio. I just wish I had been able to balance it better in favour of TPW.

Looking at the M-co demand graph it has gone through the roof the previous week. http://www.comitfree.co.nz/fta/ftaPage.demand
Will be interesting if it is as high this week when it comes out today.

I do believe Macdunk is right though. Inevitably we may all be looking more like Don Quixote what with the price of fuel increasing and Labour's dreams of indirectly taxing us more with electricity via a carbon tax. It's still a long way off and perhaps they are testing the wind here. http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3721416a13,00.html

Hope I haven't stuffed your quote insertion Toddy. Still a minnow at posting.
Treetops
Yes I did!