Diminishing market place.

[duncan macgregor]

I am starting to find the NZX market very difficult to find good reliable companies to invest in. It is all becoming very risky for one reason or another. Last few weeks for instance i crossed off my potential buy list a few more. VECTOR,AIA,CEN, and TEL for instance with govt threats, then we have the mad bombers with AIR plus insurance companies at risk. The building game is slowing then CHINA is killing off our manufacturers.
I am starting to think that this might be the wrong country for my investment dollar, I might have to get into miners and oilers. Vector was a potential buy for me, but not now they are caught between a rock and a hard place. Their good result due out today will shoot them down in flames. macdunk

[Gryffyn]

I take it that retail is also on your danger list?

Do you only consider companies such as though listed that are directly involved in their business or will you look at investment companies, e.g. my favourite GPG.

What about the Fonterra / Dairy float?

[Lizard]

Seems to be an inevitable progression with NZX investors growing out of the NZ market after a few years. Still, the NZX does offer a few advantages, particularly for those wanting dividend income. Also, I find it easier to have a "feel" for the companies, which seems to make a difference to returns.

Right now on the NZX, I am seeing more opportunities in the Sci-Tech companies than in the industrials/cyclicals. Miners and oilers on the ASX are still a reasonable bet, but might need to be a little more selective than in the past.

[whiteheron]

macdunk

Have you considered Aussie resource / mining stocks ?

They are pretty volatile, but with careful selection can often produce very pleasing returns

There are many that should be left well alone though

Are you thinking short term or long term ?

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

macdunk

Have you considered Aussie resource / mining stocks ?

They are pretty volatile, but with careful selection can often produce very pleasing returns

There are many that should be left well alone though

Are you thinking short term or long term ?

I used to years ago dabble in those very profitable but risky.
GRYF, Retail is out its over done. Investment companies is what i am trying to do myself why pay a monkey. I much prefer to hold TPW shares myself as do it via IFT for instance. Its probabely the monday morning blues, or maybe im turning into an old woman, and getting the hot and cold flushes. macdunk

[Pennywise]

because GPG have far more ability than you to do great deals...it's not paying the monkey, it is taking a piece of their hot and experienced pie.[:p]

GPG, RPL, SOE and KID all look good to me.

falling kiwi, and even Govt Help with KID.

[ananda77]

duncan:

...sounds exactly like it

...anyway, in that frame of mind, reserching funeral service companies, coffin makers, etc might be a good past time for you today

[:o)][:o)]Kind Regards from the Clown

[kittydashwood]

MACD we finally agree.
The game is now what people need not what people want.


Diminishing margins stateside means cooling consumer demand, china produces less, aussie miners will collapse as commodity prices tank with overproduction coming on, stage set for china and those with cash to buy up everything, communist victory carrys on globally as capitalism and freedom are defeated.

Choose your sectors wisely and of course even cash will lose.
In the secular bear, bulls, bears and cash get hurt.

Stateside they are buying XLP and XLU.

[Mick100]

Macdunk, I think you could give GPG some thought

As far as the miners and oilers go personally I'v done better out of the oilers than the miners

You may like to concider the guys selling the picks and shovels - they're less risky and most of them pay dividends. I have bought some of these mining services co's recently -IMD - PCG - ESS - BNT (thanks to lizard and lewinsky for the heads up)
,

[Gryffyn]

and of course MacD, with the FTX debacle in people's minds new issues are going to be hard to float...

as for the odd monkey, I'm sometimes prepared to use one if they are doing better than me (GPG) or I just don't have time to stay up with a whole different market - (OZY for Australia) - both have done me proud the last few years.

Local bets - the retirement and private health sectors but these are well priced compared to a couple of years back :-)

[shasta]

I still likes the looks of:

ABA
CMO
DPC
FRE
PGW
PGC
HGD
PPP/NZO
SOE
FBU

On the NZX, these appear cheap to me based on there fundamentals.

[ananda77]

duncan:

on the more serious side: [my] strategies

-high yielding shares but funds heged 100%

-small gas play mpo(asx) with international ambitions

-1 oil play tap(asx) with plenty of exploration upside (always hedge in case of a duster)

-index trading -ONLY- because it's a cheap way to make some money and have some fun

-~90% cashed up and a volume of patience

Kind Regards

[Placebo]

quote:What about the Fonterra / Dairy float?


Gryff, he only wants GOOD companies...;)

[Flying Goat]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

I am starting to find the NZX market very difficult to find good reliable companies to invest in. It is all becoming very risky for one reason or another. Last few weeks for instance i crossed off my potential buy list a few more. VECTOR,AIA,CEN, and TEL for instance with govt threats, then we have the mad bombers with AIR plus insurance companies at risk. The building game is slowing then CHINA is killing off our manufacturers.
I am starting to think that this might be the wrong country for my investment dollar, I might have to get into miners and oilers. Vector was a potential buy for me, but not now they are caught between a rock and a hard place. Their good result due out today will shoot them down in flames. macdunk


Buy FBU on 10.5 times earnings, sign up for the dividen reinvestment plan and sit on them for 10 years. Safe on the downside: even if the price slides over the next year or two you will be buying more for with your div re-ivestment plan, and will be tax free gains, when Aus housing markets gets back into swing they will keep doing well. On the up side there is still takeover potential, likewise they are looking at acquisitions themselves which will only help to build / diversify on what they've done to date. Just check last four years return on equity, successively increasing divvies, numerous market leading monopoly / duopoly brands -its text book Graham / Buffet type stock.


Other than that you're right... the only good stocks (RYM / PPL / FPH / MFT) are probably overpriced, although I am still upbeat on PPL as they have some exciting prospects in the USA / UK. ASX is pretty accessible i guess but I only ever managed to get burned over there, save a few instances, whereas NZX has always given me strong returns.

That's my 10 cents worth....

FG

[zyreon]

Good NZX companies are harder to find with many leaving the market, but so what?! don't be so parochial.

If you had started diversifying overseas last year you'd already have about an extra 10% from currency gains alone.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by zyreon

Good NZX companies are harder to find with many leaving the market, but so what?! don't be so parochial.

If you had started diversifying overseas last year you'd already have about an extra 10% from currency gains alone.

I have in the past only invested in the NZ markets to make the place a better place for the people that live here. Why should i invest in CHINA for instance when they compete against us. It might be misguided loyalty but thats what i prefer. macdunk

[I.T.Ancient]

Be patient. Wait for the crash, watch the cat bounce. Wait until columnists are writing that the sharemarket shows little prospect of recovery for at least a year and then buy. Be aware that (thanks to socialist policies) NZ will take longer to recover than other markets. In the meanwhile, have a bit of fun by dabbling in a few speccies.

[Pennywise]

You invest in China weekly Mac...

take a look at the clothes you're wearing today[:p]

or the many appliances you own...

when the NZdollar was v high, buying offshore would have helped many kiwi manufacturers;)

[zyreon]

The difference you make by investing in NZX companies is marginal at best -it is a secondary capital market- if you don't do it there will be a thousand others to take your place.

If you really want to make a difference then invest in VC or to a lesser extent private equity; or build your own business.

As far as I'm concerned it's nice to lull yourself into a sense of magnanimity, but this is finance -profits count, not imaginings.

And for the record I wouldn't invest in china -not for ideological reasons, but more for a lack of transparency/unknown regulations/inability to access anything but the crumbs leftover by the IBs. I was thinking more along the lines of US/Aus/UK etc.

[Mick100]

Yes, I have to agree with zyreon here

Macdunk, you have often stated that your in the markets to make money. You have hounded those people who hold losing, or flatlining, shares long term. And now your saying that your loyalty to NZ is more important than profits. I think this is a cop-out.

The fact is that you could have made far more if you had invested in the ASX over the past 5 yrs.
International investors look upon the NZX as the wild west.
.

[Lizard]

Well, I have to say that having been invested in the NZX and the ASX for the past 5 years, I have still achieved better results on the NZX in every year. I put this down to greater knowledge of the NZX companies. Also, perhaps, the lower volume and quality of institutional analysis which allows individuals a chance to sneak in ahead of the pack. Have been severely burnt on the ASX with companies that turned out to be less than they appeared... something that is identified a little more quickly in the sparsely populated NZX.

*edited to overcome extreme censorship!

[duncan macgregor]

Mick, The wild west is the way i like it. I remember the real wild west market in the late sixties, in the AUSTRALIAN mining sector.
The NZ market will never be as bad as that, not even FELTEX,{THEY ARE ONLY AMATEURS}.
Loyalty to where my descendents will live, plus loyalty to my pocket. No need to tell you about my win at all costs attitude to everything mick you know that. How the hell am i going to chat up a tea lady in AUSTRALIA for petes sake, you havent worked that one out have you?. macdunk

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Well, I have to say that having been invested in the NZX and the ASX for the past 5 years, I have still achieved better results on the NZX in every year. I put this down to greater knowledge of the NZX companies. Also, perhaps, the lower volume and quality of institutional analysis which allows individuals a chance to sneak in ahead of the pack. Have been severely burnt on the ASX with companies that turned out to be less than they appeared... something that is identified a little more quickly in the sp****ly populated NZX.


hehe, way to go on censorship there ST.

Anyhow, yes I agree with you here local knowledge counts...big time.

Personally for me I try to mix it up, local NZX companies I'm very familiar with provide solid but small returns, and ASX companies which represent a greater return, but also a greater risk (with getting jacked on the exchange rate both ways in addition).

I'm also going to the ASX more often, not due to the delisting exodus or over/under pricing, but mainly because I'm concerned about the trading volumes here at the moment (im getting stranded in shares more and more often in companies that have historically been fairly liquid)

Edit: p.s Sp**** Sp**** Sp****!

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Mick, The wild west is the way i like it. I remember the real wild west market in the late sixties, in the AUSTRALIAN mining sector.
The NZ market will never be as bad as that, not even FELTEX,{THEY ARE ONLY AMATEURS}.
Loyalty to where my descendents will live, plus loyalty to my pocket. No need to tell you about my win at all costs attitude to everything mick you know that. How the hell am i going to chat up a tea lady in AUSTRALIA for petes sake, you havent worked that one out have you?. macdunk


Phone <s>sex</s> call?

[KW]

Do tend to agree with you there Duncan. Not much interests me either. So I just keep topping up on RYM, PPL and NZR. Also TEM just for a bit of diversity.

[Mick100]

Macdunk, Lizard

I find the ASX co's more transparent. I can usually get a fairly good idea of the integrety of managment by reading through a couple of yrs of previous announcments. I don't need to waste my time talking to truck drivers and tea ladies. I'v got all the info I need at my finger tips. That's the way I like to operate - I guess it boils down to personallities.

Whenever NZO are going to make an announcment, either good or bad, the shareprice always moves in anticipation of the ann - there are obviously leaks, meaning that some investors are at a great advantage to the rest of us. You don't see this sought of thing on the ASX.
.

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


Macdunk, Lizard

I find the ASX co's more transparent. I can usually get a fairly good idea of the integrety of managment by reading through a couple of yrs of previous announcments. I don't need to waste my time talking to truck drivers and tea ladies. I'v got all the info I need at my finger tips. That's the way I like to operate - I guess it boils down to personallities.

Whenever NZO are going to make an announcment, either good or bad, the shareprice always moves in anticipation of the ann - there are obviously leaks, meaning that some investors are at a great advantage to the rest of us. You don't see this sought of thing on the ASX.
.


Oddly Mick, my experience has been exactly the opposite - especially in terms of price movements prior to announcements. I don't use tea ladies, but I think years of reading business pages means I do recognise what most of the NZX companies do and the names and respectability of those involved. Have only recently had the internet download speed/time to go back through more than a year of announcements on any ASX company I've been interested in - and it definitely helps.

[Flying Goat]

quote:Originally posted by KW

Do tend to agree with you there Duncan. Not much interests me either. So I just keep topping up on RYM, PPL and NZR. Also TEM just for a bit of diversity.




agree, my strategy is similar re topping up on PPL / RYM only problem is they're getting damn pricey... but quality-wise see them with best long term prospoects on the nzse, oh and then there are FBU and TWR which are still a little more reasonably priced...

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Have been severely burnt on the ASX with companies that turned out to be less than they appeared...


I think that's more appalling luck than anything else. The ASX has significantly outperformed the NZX over the past 5 years, and a portfolio with some educated stock selection (mining and related stocks, banks) that avoided telcos, retail and media would have easily achieved 150 - 200% return over that time.