Anyone following IBA?

[croesus]

Strong gains recently.... with lots of good announcements....a tech stock that does real stuff.
disc.... have a few via TPC

[croesus]

Or in Australia .. ticker TAG... which is argueably even better value.. having no debt... lots a cash... and diversified investments

[Sid]

Maquarries have recently increased their holding and there has been a raft of good news from the company pointing to new business being written. Will look closely at next quarterly cash flow report as should give a clue as to whether they will (finally) move to profit. The share price has had a great run with market cap now around $46.5m.

Discl. Hold IBA

[Sid]

Well this share doesn't get much attention here. They have announced a very promising alliance with Kodak;

IBA&Kodak sign global Licensing Agmt & Prod Dev Agmt
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IBA&E=ASX&N=336685

Price up to 0.68cents today.

[kiwi_on_OE]

I had thought about buying some a few weeks ago, but I didn't have money in the right places, and then it levelled out so I left it. Bother, missed out on a 40% increase. I've got some exposure via Tag, but not enough to make it worthwhile.

Not sure how good the deal is. Sounds like they've effectively sold some software for, they hope, $50m over 5yrs. But IBA keep Australaisa and Asia.

I didn't see any mention, do they get ongoing royalties after the 5yrs?

I should really do some more analysis on this company.

[croesus]

Tag have seen a 300% plus increase in their value of IBA shares since the last balance date.... they are now buying into another au Tech, code ICE.... available to you and me at 2.3c........
disc hold TPC...ICE.... IBA by proxy

[Sid]

Hi Croesus, Have you any info on ICE?

[croesus]

Hi Sid
Had a chat to their CEO a while back, he seemed very competant.. company appears to be going forward... re info have a look at their company announcements... I use Stockness....

[Sid]

Cheers, I've just looked at their recent presentation.

[k1w1]

I'm in on this lads so lets all sink or swim together :)

[clearasmud]

Are you guys really bullish on this.
Are tag management the real deal?

[croesus]

Well Gary H Weiss is a executive director of GPG

[k1w1]

Only really sits on the audit committee though judging by his meeting attendance.

[Sid]

It's been 3 months since the Kodak deal was announced. Stock has traded above 90 cents in this time but is now back into the mid 70's. There have been some more positve news since the kodak alliance including further acquisitions.

[tracker]

in my opinion might fall a bit more
imo would be nive buying around 65-69 ish mark
looking for reentry around there
has been a nice ride
maqs playing funny buggers doesnt help
watching with interest
tracker

[Sid]

Has fallen away on the failure of the HCN takeover. Touched 0.53 last week, but finished today at 0.60. As part of the t/o attempt they did an institutional placement at 0.70, and they have ended up with just under 20% of HCN which they can realise a profit on if they accept PRY's offer.

[kiwi_on_OE]

I had a look at the graph over the wknd and saw that it was in a downtrend. Looks like it might've broken out so I might be interested now. Any TAs that can give a more thorough analysis?

They have plenty of cash floating about at the moment. $20m from placment and presumably a similar amount if the sell out of HCN.

[Stock Man]

Hi Guys,

IBA caught my eye a while ago - but I thought that I had missed the ride as it put on over 585% in 9 months[:0]

I will try and post something soon but keep in mind although iba is almost debt free it has not been eps positive in the last 5 yrs!

rgds

[Stock Man]

Here is iba over the last 9 months. As it is fairly explainatory the downtrend has been broken...however these can be false breakouts and the volume imo is quite inconclusive. The positive factor is that there is a reasonable place to set a stop that gives a good reward vs risk ratio.

3 moving averages that work reasonable well with this stock are included - depending on your trading plan each of these moving averages has give excellent entry and sell confirmation signals.

As with all stocks in a downtrend the RSI tends to hover around the middle to bottom (highlighted by yellow eclipse) It too has just given an interesting signal.

The dmi indicators lag, however the adx has turned down......indicating a possible change, or at least that the trend in place is weakening.

All in all - we really do not know what is in store for iba. I would be reasonable confident taking a long position, with a tight stop and expect resistance at .65 and .70 (poss profit objective). I know little of the fundamentals.

Hope this is of use.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v292/investornz/iba11_1_05a.gif

[tracker]

well maq are still buying everything at all levels, strangest thing i have ever seen, as in they just step up to plate at all stages like something is going on, yet they did it all the ay down as well
worth watching for that fact alone
tracker

[croesus]

Good point Tracker, a riddle wrapped in a enigma, the next lot of financials will be interesting, also what will become of their HCN holding.
My view is that the best way to buy IBA is to buy TAG (au) or TPC (nz)...
disc TPC ICE BLT GEN NTG ASC CHP CEN CAV SOE WKL WIP HGDCA etc

[Sid]

Hi Croesus,

Interested in your comments re Tag as better vehicle for exposure to IBA. Do you like some of Tag's other holdings? Also do you know Tag's NTA per share?

Sid.

[croesus]

Sid .. this time last year TAG or TPC were around 12c per share now about 30c, at that time buying TAG meant for every 5 Tags purchased one got a IBA share,(virtually for free) Tag at that time were worth about 20c a share breakup value with out counting the IBA value.

Now the mkt has woken up somewhat, but TAG are debt free, have several million in the bank, several good trading companys, and a large holding in IBA, I suggest you spend some time on their website.

I would estimate their NTA at about 30c, in 6 weeks the 1/2 year results will be out..

TAG or TPC (nz listing) has been a pure contrarion play up until about 6 months ago, a year or more back they were under 10c, dragged down by the tech wreck...
Whilst Royalty and other misguided knaves were espousing the delights of WHS and Briscoes... the value was always there in TAG, ... when the likes of the Warehouse lose another 60% they may possibly be worth a look... the canny Scot is on to it, discount retailing is a no win everybody lose situation.

[kiwi_on_OE]

I dipped my toe in the water today, so naturually the price went down!

Stock Man - true they haven't been EPS positive, but I think they were getting close. They should be next year as they have $10m pa for the next 5 yrs coming in from their recent sale to Kodak.

croesus - I don't have such a rosey view of Tag being a long term holder. I don't think they have done anything since the 87 crash - apart from in the last 6 mths.

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by Stock Man
I would be reasonable confident taking a long position, with a tight stop and expect resistance at .65 and .70 (poss profit objective).

Interesting action over the last couple of days.... Up over 5%
Did anyone pick some up? [:p]:D

[k1w1]

Not this time around but I have held for a while. One for the bottom draw.

[croesus]

If the dominos fall the right way could be a 10 bagger

[Sid]

Interesting action over the last couple of days.... Up over 5%
Did anyone pick some up? [:p]:D
[/quote]

I got a few for my other half last week at 0.55, they actually traded down to 0.53 on the day. I've just seen a Maquarrie report (post HCN t/o failure) with a 12 month target of .90 and a valuation of between 0.80 and 0.90 (from memory).

[croesus]

Hi Sid can you put the report on here ?

Thanks, Croesus.

[Sid]

Hi Croesus,
Have only hard copy and can't access it from the web. They are forecasting 5.4 cents eps for 2005 and base their valuation on a P/E re-rating. They have not incorporated IBA winning any of the large Australian public health sector IT contracts coming up for tender in their forecasts.

[croesus]

Cheers Sid, Will be interesting where the price goes in the next few weeks....

If 90c plus does come to pass... TAG (au) at 27c will be cheap

[Sid]

Half year profit announced today of $4.4m (eps 1.9 cents)plus a maiden dividend of 0.5 cents. IBA have accepted Primary Health Care's offer for IBA's HCN shares, IBA will book a $1m profit on this foray in the second half.

Croesus - you can find a summary of the Macquarrie report on Sharescene or HotCopper.

[croesus]

Hi Sid, Thanks will have a look on Hot Copper......... IBA looking positive, quite a few gone through today, as an aside I understand TAG will announce on the 23 rd Feb, will be interesting to see wether they opt to pay a div, I suspect they will.

[k1w1]

Croesus would you think about renaming this thread," TAG/IBA/ICE and related companies". I don't think there are enough of us following these coy's to keep individual threads going.

IBA SP rise is going to do nice things to the TAG balance sheet.

Disc: Hold IBA/TAG/TPC/ICE

[croesus]

Agree with that idea Kiwi, not sure how to go with the tech side of renaming a thread, but then I get the plumber in to change a washer.

IBA going well today about 70c when I looked, if Phaedrus reads this, would really appreciate his charting expertise....

Thanks in advance.

Re Tag/TPC ....31/34 nz today.... 300% in approx a year watch this space

[k1w1]

Croesus, as thread starter the edit function for this thread should allow you to change the name of the thread.

[kiwi_on_OE]

I'm hopeing that the higher high (today compared to last week's upward blip) should mean it's now in an uptrend. May have to wait for the TAs to pile in before they confirm though.;)

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by kiwi_on_OE

I'm hopeing that the higher high (today compared to last week's upward blip) should mean it's now in an uptrend. May have to wait for the TAs to pile in before they confirm though.;)


Yes correct. Uptrend resumed. I should point out from my chart last week...thats it's partially incorrect. Where I said "downtrend broken" should have read "trendline broken".:D

Croesus - what else is there to add....[?]

[croesus]

Thanks Stockman.
Will be interesting to see where the S/P goes from here, I have no way of quantifying how big the market is for the IBA product or how much profit is in it ???
Which is why I buy my shares in IBA as a proxy via TAG, my risk/reward ratio is a bit more conservative then you young chargers. ( I presume)

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by croesus


my risk/reward ratio is a bit more conservative then you young chargers. ( I presume)



quote:Re Tag/TPC ....31/34 nz today.... 300% in approx a year watch this space


Who are you kidding.....I would love 300%pa.:D

Rgds

[nelehdine]

Done some research this morning on IBA vs TAG , have opted for IBA as I think the other TAG investments could struggle over the next few years. IBA looks like a great little company, MBL have a large stake and they have a great history of backing winners. At 50c they look like great value with EPS for 2005 forecast at 6.1c ... not many profitable IT co's around with P/E's of 8 !!

[Sid]

They ran hard up to 90 cents last year, spurred on by the Maquarrie purchase (sub 20 cents if I remember correctly) and then the Kodak alliance deal. I would expect a progress update on this soon.

[nelehdine]

Thanks Sid, bgt 19000 at 50.5 earlier today

[croesus]

I think you may be right Nele, have been dissapointed in the inactivity at TAG over the last few months.... will hold for now until they report... IBA do seem cheap,, and from memory the buy back still has another 4 mill shares to go
cheers Croesus

[nelehdine]

Hi Croesus, The more I read the more I like IBA. Would like to know more about the Kodak deal ... it mentions that after 5Yrs Kodak basically own the IP outright for the world except Aus,NZ and SE Asia , I'd like to know what their definition of "SE" is ... I presume it includes tiger economies such as Indonesia , Thailand , Malaysia , Singapore ,HK but would love to know where China falls into their geographic thinking ... At 51c the shares look REALLY REALLY cheap ... where's the catch ????

[nelehdine]

See the shares have been placed in pre-open till Wed a.m pending "a major announcement with a third party" .... very interesting. Also very interesting to see 34000 TAG shares offered in Australia at 24c when the best offer in NZ is at 30c. With IBA not trading these shares offered in TAG could be a great short term punt ( TAG is one of the largest shareholders in IBA )

[Arthur]

What a crap quality announcement. Market has taken it as negative, but knows?

[croesus]

Thought about buying last week, but didn't.are there any IBA afficionados out there with any thoughts on where this co is headed ?
Thanks in anticapation .. Croesus

[Arthur]

I have held since they almost went under. They seem to have had a string of good announcements lately. This one troubles me though. Is Kodak pulling out of the distribution as it sees no future in it? or do they want worldwide rights (unlikely)or has IBA suddenly decided to have a crack at the European/USA market alone? IBA is a much stronger company since the Kodak deal was announced, but IMHO loosing Kodaks distribution would not be good.

[nelehdine]

I'm amazed that the came amount with this announcement ... it asks more questions than it answers. I wonder how long before we get more details on who gets what in terms of geographic territory.

Disc: nervous holder

[kiwi_on_OE]

I think that if Kodak think they're on a loser, or IBA think they got bad terms then there wouldn't be a renegotiation. The 'loser' may want to, but the 'winner' would say 'no thank you' and take the money/product and run. It could be possible if there is some clause that allows either party to exit. An alternative is that any renegotitation is for a win-win scenario.

From memory Kodak only bought rights to some specific software from IBA, not their entire range of applications. Maybe the two of them think there is a benefit in sharing more of IBAs products.

Maybe the easiest outcome is a Kodak takeover of IBA.

[croesus]

The last line of your postis thought provoking Kiwi....could be a good time to accumalate more shares TAG (au) or TPC (nz)
cheers Croesus

[tracker]

also thought same nel
BUT sold 52 when it couldnt get thru

looking at possibe re enrty at 43ish, if it gives all the right signals at the time

put it this way I have it alarmed at 44 and will make a decision IF and when it gets there
A fall thru that level would be rather ugly

stops as always
tracker

nel just wondering what prompted your buy at that level; was it based on fundamental, or technical reasons????

have a great weekend

[nelehdine]

Purely fundamental Tracker, the P/e looked cheap, 10% cheaper now !! the news flow all seemed positive, I like the business they are in .... then this absolute stinker of an announcement comes out. I realise the importance of the Kodak partnership, I can't beleive how vague the announcement was ... and it was put in a trading halt for 2 days ... we think the NZX can sometimes be a bit of a joke ... the ASX doesn't look to flash to me after this episode. I am very nervous ... will stop out just as you buy back in at about 42.5 for a 8c loss.

Here's hoping more positive details emerge before the share drift down to that level ... dn another 1c today ... ugly !!!

[croesus]

Nele, I note the best TAG au buy has halved to 11c... correlation ?
cheers Croesus

[nelehdine]

Yep Croesus, maybe I should bail at 45c , take my 10pct loss and lick my wounds. It doesn't smell good !!!

[croesus]

Phone them, I have in the past, they were quite helpfull.
cheers Croesus

[nelehdine]

Bailed on 14000 shares at 44.5 ... will keep 5000 for the interest and hopefully one day I will make up the losses ... price required on remaining share to break even - 65c !!

Used money to have a punt on Arafura Options at 14c ... out of the frying pan into the fire !!
( ARUO for anyone who's interested )

[tracker]

chart far from inspiring
sorry you took a loss nel, but 1st stop is USUALLY the cheapest.

I think short term at least there are better buys out there, BUT will modify alarm, so as I dont miss it on way up, assuming at some stage a bounce

thanks for the reply
tracker

[Arthur]

Interesting link
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/loser-calls-for-probe-on-tender/2005/07/19/1121538972939.html

[croesus]

Whats driving the price and volume today ? Somebody must know what us mushrooms do not.

regards Croesus

[Sid]

Full year result out: EPS 4.89cents, 0.5 cent div.

Also amendment to Kodak agreement and purchase of Indian Healthcare IT company announced.

Share price up 3 cents so far.

[croesus]

Pluses and Minuses..... Kodak blanched at the yearly fee, spin doctors for IBA working fster then my Simpson... still maybe win win... jury is out for a cpl of years on that one
cheers Croesus

[k1w1]

Thats my reading of it as well. Kodak has welched on the deal and IBA has let them.

The Indian acquisition is a completely separate issue although it may be that the two may cancel each other out.

Lot of spin with this company which has had a soggy SP.

Disc: Still holding

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Looking a tad better now though guys .....

Regards,

Robbo:)

[croesus]

Every 5c increase over 40c adds another approx 1c to TAG (au)TPC (nz)
nett value.
Will we see 50c ???
Cheers Croesus

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

The way I read IPA, it is one of those: "short term pains for long term gains" work out Jobs...

Not really much into such "fine tuning shareprice predicitions",as I'm more Macro and not trend trading this stock, but in short to answer your question, Croessus, MY MONEY says: "Yes" .....

Their (IBA) Earnings this last Period were really very Good....no let me re-phrase that... "excellent" .....

Revenues and Profit Margins are all over 100% Imporovements from this time last year....

Profit Margins are where I like them... ie: High.... > 23% this
financial year...

-- but it may be 18 mths I feel before the next Big set of Goodie similar positive accretive Numbers come to the IBA EBITA bottom Line...???//// .....

Mgt seems also to be quite CANDID.... regards the Kodak-Eastman Deal.... I place a premium on Candour personally, and now (due to deal with Kodak/Eastman) .... they seem to have more control of their own destiny.... which IS Good, IMO ....

My own IBA overall Research, is not quite complete on IPA but has been suffice to be Easilly.... ( with a Wide Margin of Safety -- IMO) --buying up to these sort of "easy" to see Big Value share price levels....

Two(2) interesting little side notes for IBA are:

(a) Market Cap is almost dead on $100 miilions... and pushing north of this could be interesting and should be easy peasy....

(b) Finanical Year High Share Price for IBA was around 89 cents, I'll repeat that, 89 cents.... back on about 7/10/04 ...

Their (IBA) Reported Loss on Balance sheet at that Time, was, 1/2 a million LOSS...

-- IBA's curent EBITA profit just reported is NOW $12.7 millions Profit .... wow !!

And you ask me whether I now feel 50 cents is do - eable Croesseus... !! Is the pope a Catholic?

Try back to the north of 90 cents range....IMO ... Croessus !! :):)

In my view, IBA Health is one of the best Value Health sector small caps going around currently.... and have personally taken a decent sort of view.... on them....[:p]

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

[croesus]

Hope your right every time IBA goes up 5c the nett value of my TPC shares increase by approx $2800.
disc hold TPC ICE HGD TTK CAV TAY NOG JWI Etc Etc...

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

And the $64 dollar question is... will IBA break 42 cents and even better if IBA breaks the 45.5 cents resistance.......???

If So... and that "if" is the qualification....

could then potentiallh be A: ... Nice 'Good Run Ahead' ... for IBA Health (IBA) in my view.....

Kind Regards,

Robbo:)

[Lizard]

Been following (but not holding) IBA since March. Been on a low P/E given the growth record and further potential. Just bought in. Thanks for bringing it to my attention Robbo. :)

[davidrob]

IBA Health

Hi Lizzard,

Yeah looks goodish does IBA...

But remember, to maybe note the "if" in my preceding post....

Regards,

Robbo :)

[Phaedrus]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/IBA1121001.gif

[Lizard]

Thanks for the chart Phaedrus.

I hope this doesn't mean I'm about to be humiliated...[:0]

[Phaedrus]

How about vindicated?

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Well we've broken that share price point---- of 42 cents, that I was discussing 2 posts ago (yesterday) , -- AND as importantly, the Volume for IBA Increases were Excellent....

Tommorrow ....will be hopefully ....and ought to be confirmatory for IBA HEalth (IBA).(fingers crossed)

Big thanks to Phaedrus, for that Exceeeelent Chart.[^][^]

Made it so much clearer and plainer. Thanks mate.

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

[k1w1]

Usually someone has sold into rallies above 40c but not today. Volume is well up also. Lets see if we can get to 45c.

I am still behind on my purchase price so congrats to everyone who can get in at 45c or below.

Thanks for the chart Phaedrus, how come you are over from the NZ site.

[k1w1]

Well it pays to respect the trend lines on P's chart. So far today IBA has not been able to hold the 43c mark.

As has been the case for some time sellers are emerging whenever the buyers get above 40c .

[Lizard]

Yes, it looks like "vindicated" will have to wait for another day...[8D]

[Just_roll_it]

Have been holding IBA for some time now at a small loss. Considering the prospects for the company, the fact that they pay a dividend and focus on expansion and growth I have considered IBA to have been over-sold for 3-4 months now. I think it is just a matter of time before the SP heads north again.

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Agree with all of these excellent posts.

Great. Thanks very much.

That Resistance Point for IBA presently at: 44/45 cents... seems to be the Important Psychological Point, which I feel will Occur soon...

Regards,

Robbo:)

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

-- Breakthrough !- 46 cents!

Awwww shucks.... ya know where to send the Cold Crownies to guys...

+++ Here We Go .... Here We Go .... Here We Go ....

and ..... Uncle Maxie .... Open The Bar! -- [:p][:p]

Kind and Happy happy Regards,

Robbo :):)

[Lizard]

To paraphrase yourself Robbo, "you can't kiss all the boys", but in this case...[:X]

;)

[davidrob]

IBA Health

How ya Lizzard. ? - :);)

Thanks for that last nice message, .... and given its near The Silly Season, it is .... [:X][:X][:X][:X] -- naturally for you too.!! ;) [:I]

Ended up (IBA that is) -- more than 12% up today; and on The Rise by the looks ......

Tommorrow is now important and critical for IBA .... to get the confirmation...But am now much muhc more Confidenet....

Hope you too, had "got set" at the 42 cents or even lower--??-- figure Lizzard.

Important point.... IMO...is to now see if "we can let this Up Surge (if it indeed tutns out to be... ? 'fingers crossed --)... really stretch out and ..... Run Up and Up ... "

You have a real good one Lizzard.

Anyone following IBA Got any First level Targets now for IBA ???

Kindest Regards,

robbo :):)

[croesus]

Looking at the chart, i am picking 52c then a plateau... till more positive news.. even

[croesus]

pushed the wrong button .. was going to say 60 to 70c is possible... this company has the possibility to be a 100 bagger in 5 to 10 years

[k1w1]

This was a stunning day for IBA shareholders. Not only did the SP break through the 43c and 45c barriers but look at the volume.

My observation is that previously when the volume has reached the 2 million mark the SP has increased markedly in the following days.

What is the probability that this will reoccur in the next few days following that mark being passed today ?

[croesus]

Good Day for us TAG / TPC shareholders ( TAG own lots of IBA)

[croesus]

Seems to be running out of steam...46/47 today.. not so many shares trading either.

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Still looks more than Okay, to even Goodish with Strong Solid Depth Support.:)

Robbo :)

[Lizard]

Yes looking solid today I thought. A good sign. Picked mine up at 42.5cps on Monday.

Would love to know if Phaedrus bought some...[8)]

[k1w1]

Seems to be holding so far on reasonable volume.

[croesus]

Well IBA dissapointed again, rather flaccid finish to the week. Would'nt be surprised to see them at 39/40 by next Wed. but thats not to say they won't be a 20 bagger or better, just not anytime yet.

[Lizard]

On a long term basis, IBA appears to be good value at these prices. However, it has not been the easiest share to analyse because of the rapid changes in the business.

It has appeared to be on a low PE, though if the $5.5m from the original Kodak deal is now treated as a "one-off", then the figures look a little different. Using figures provided by IBA which are after tax, but before amortisation, then last years underlying result was $6.7m, giving a historical PE of 16.5 at a share price of 44cps.

Looking forward, because of one-off costs the 2006 year is not going to look great. The figure mentioned by IBA is profit after tax (and assumedly before amortisation) of $4m. Allowing for new shares issued to Kodak and Medicom, this suggests a forward PE of 31 - will look even worse when the substantial amortisation payments are deducted. However, in 2007, IBA expect profits to return to at least the 2005 levels. It would seem likely from other figures provided that they would be more - I figure $15-$16m. This would equate to PE of around 8.5 at which point IBA should have seen a re-rate in its share price.

The difficulty is, that it is impossible to know at what point the share price will start its re-rate. And of course, always risks that changes in market conditions mean the re-rate never occurs. However, I am happy to take a small holding now and add to it as I become more confident in the company achieving the forecast 2007 result, on the basis that it has the potential for 100%+ gains over 18 months.

[croesus]

Not a bad day, better then I thought after last Friday... but will it hold/increase ? tomorrow.

[Sid]

Dow Jones news story re Thai deal

DJ MARKET TALK: IBA Health Jumps On Thai Hospital Deal
1054 [Dow Jones] IBA Health (IBA.AU) shares jump as high as 48 cents, up 9%, after winning A$6.6 million IT licence and services deal with Bangkok hospital. Siriraj Hospital is Thailand's oldest and largest hospital, IBA says. Stock up over 20% since start of November on speculation it's a prime takeover target as global medical giants, such as GE, Siemens move into medical information technology. Latest up 5.7% at 46.5 cents. (SVM)

Has the "prime takeover target" got any credence?

[k1w1]

Very good volume on news of sale to a pivotal hospital in Thailand.

[croesus]

Another Good Day, Price Up, good volume,,, I wonder if there is any credence in rumours of a possible take over... hopefully not yet awhile.. would like to see this puppy run for a few years yet...

cheers Croesus.
ps do the math regards Tag... I see Peter Wise has,, he has been buying again

[Tumbleweed]

Nice pick guys, I only wish I had picked some up. would have been very nice to rid myself of kiwi dollars.
Do these still look like good value at $0.51?
Hopefully this will increase the value of TPC atleast

[Sid]

Another Dow Jones story.

DJ MARKET TALK: IBA Health Chmn Says More Deals In Pipeline
1104 [Dow Jones] Shares in IBA Health (IBA.AU) up 5.2% at 50.5 cents after announcing link-up with Credicare Health Fund. Executive Chairman Gary Cohen says while deal relatively small it comes on the back of A$6.5 million contract with a Bangkok hospital last week. "There's a bit of momentum in the market at the moment," he says. Cohen also notes IBA working on a number of international and local deals, including some "major" contracts. Expects deals to come on stream over the next 3-4 months

Keeping fingers crossed that IBA has some more contract wins.

[croesus]

Tumbleweed..... TAG up in Aussie,.... Wonder if it is more insider buying ?

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Cookin with a bit of gas still in the tank I reckon....

Good stuff.

Robbo :)

[Tumbleweed]

I have noticed TPC has had 3 notices of a change in directors interests. Peter wise I think it was. all 3 were an increase in holdings.

Maybe he knows somthing we dont......

[croesus]

IBA is TAG/TPC,s main investment, from memory book value as of the last TAG report a notional 40c... now worth approx 30%. more,( IBA yesterday around 53c) ... do the math.
Re Peter Wise.. thru his family trust the largest holder in TAG. Often tops up his holding
regards Croesus

[k1w1]

Gary Weiss from GPG is a cousin or something isnt he ? Sits on the audit committee.

Another great day for IBA so far, up another 4c on good volume.

[croesus]

Correct.... had hoped over the years there would have been more input from Gary, or maybe a GPG joint project or similar, .. but not yet. Any nascent chartists out there with a view on this stock? ( ie IBA... )
Thanks in appreciation

[croesus]

Bob Geldof and the Boomtown Rats had a hit, about not liking Mondays... IBA has that problem with Fridays, the day traders got edgy and down came the shareprice... 50/50 next week we will have another contract signed/announcement to ramp the price up... wonder if a take/over by G/E medical or Kodak is the end game for the IBA executive ????

[Sid]

Are there management/executive or Tag shareholdings with enough shares to block a T/O? I wouldn't think the Cohen's would want this taken over at this point in time.

[croesus]

No. Tag could not stop a Take/over

[k1w1]

A good day for IBA and TAG shareholders with IBA up another 8.5% today on news of sales to NZ largest private hospital system, Southern Cross. When this is put with Ramsay Healthcare sales announced last year it makes them the leading provider to private hospital providers in Australasia.

Disc: Hold IBA, TAG, TPC

[croesus]

Closed at 57.5... with almost 3m shares traded, paradoxically TAG was down 2c... will we end the year at 60c ??

[Phaedrus]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/IBA1222001.gif

[croesus]

Share price strong again today

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Merry Christmas Croeseus,

IBA -- IMO -- Looks better every week.......


New nice strong recent announcment too... re Projects in New Zealand .....

Regards,

Robbo :)

[croesus]

Likewise David.
Hopefully IBA will sustain the momentum in the New Year, this will mean a positive spin off for TAG/TPC.. especially looking forward to the Tag announcement in Feb for the half ending next week.
cheers Croesus
ps will be in the mountains till the 9th of Jan

[Tumbleweed]

IBA goes up, TPC goes down...... how does that work

[k1w1]

Buying opportunity

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Another nice global New fresh account Kiwi1 ! (Quatar Hospital in Middle East this time ...see ASX announcements) )

Just keeps tickin up and up and up, and why not?!?!

Up 3.4% today....

Regards,

Robbo:)

[croesus]

Auspicious start.... the Arabs have plenty of coin, they would only buy the best software.
Looking forward to my TPC half year report out next month
cheers C.

[Tumbleweed]

up 5C in NZ
on massive volume of 1482 shares....
Barely worth a mention really [8)]

[Tumbleweed]

IBA is back to its 51c mark. what happened

[croesus]

Strong Day... esclating price on good turnover... announcement pending ?

[croesus]

Up 3 cents on strong turnover, now 59 cents....
cheers Croesus

[Lizard]

Last Thursdays profit upgrade deserved note.

Forecast for HY of $5.0-$5.5m operating profit before tax was much better than I'd expected. Extrapolating out, would give a normalised NPAT of around $8m. Still difficult/risky to value these, but my valuation increased to 77cps.

[Lizard]

IBA share price up nearly 10% this morning on no news and good volume... now 68cps. :)

[croesus]

Must be due for the 6 month Announce.......go you good thing

[croesus]

Up 5c this morn to 72.5 with almost a million traded,

[davidrob]

IBA

Good stuff this IBA eh croesseus

Great Results too.

Regards,

Robbo:)

[croesus]

On a Roll lately, have a feeling the train is only just leaving the Station though, will also lever TPC/TAG out of the doldrums
go you good thing.
disc......lots via TPC.

[croesus]

Trading slightly over 80c on strong volume....... a foothold into China next ?

[Lizard]

The news out of IBA seems to get better and better. Strongly through 80cps suggests to me that next serious resistance is around 87cps - which might be an okay point to lighten up, but I don't think I'll be parting from the core holding for a while.

[Lizard]

86.5cps - almost made it on that run... I wish all shares behaved that nicely for me. :)

[croesus]

If their product is as good as they would like us to believe........and they seem to be winning a lot of contracts..... then the upside is huge.... healthcare is going to be a big deal for all us aging baby boomers.......

[Tumbleweed]

This stock is taking off.
Hasnt filtered down to TPC/TAG share price unfortunately.

[croesus]

Another good day today, worth 20c a share for TAG/TPC at approx $1 ( ie IBA at $1) not a easy stock to value could stay at this price or triple,... depending on sales and market sentiment........
any views on this stock welcomed ???
regards Croesus
disc hold approx 60,000 IBA via the conduit of TPC.

[croesus]

Broke thru $1 today, now at $1.07 another steady rise.........has the train left yet ??

Who would know??
regards Croesus (will now go buy some 42 Below to toast this puppy)

[Sid]

this is a medium to long-term hold - especially if the recent contract wins keep rolling in.

[croesus]

Up 4c so far on the back of good news

[Lizard]

Hi Croesus - is that IBA or TAG you're referring to? The effect on TAG of their little hint to the market today was quite impressive - up 6cps on ASX as I write to 35cps...nice for you! :)

[croesus]

Hi Lizard, was referring to IBA but they are now up 5.5 and TPC up 8c........where to from here ?

[k1w1]

Off to the liquor store to buy something expensive is my assessment.

[croesus]

Last at 112c......this stock with its liquidity and strong share price growth.. is due a indepth article in one of the Aussie Stock Mags and/ or Tip Sheets.....any one out there seen anything about this co. ??

[Lizard]

Latest Smart Investor has a small piece.

[croesus]

Thanks Lizard...... profit update this morning..currently up 5c
Croesus

[davidrob]

Great thread croessues.

Regards,

robbo :)

[k1w1]

trading halt, but people are buying tag

[croesus]

Interesting.........cash issue ? take over? management buy out ??
anyone privy to whats happening ??

[Lizard]

Big enough for an investor presentation session tomorrow at 11:45am... can't be too bad then...[?]:)

[croesus]

IBA and Tag both up 11% ie 12c and 4c........... moving into a biggish market...
What P/E should a aggressive Tech stock that makes a profit ( 7c share forecast nxt year) be rated at...... ( IBA that is) I hav'nt a clue..... 20x or 30x

[Lizard]

..that makes a profit...but doesn't yet pay significant tax. So maybe the lower of those figures, Croesus.

These three JV's/acquisitions appear to me to be more strategic than high returning...note that they chose to make the comparison against 2006 guidelines including one-offs, which I would have thought were removed from 2007? Recently, they said normalised NPBT of $22-23m for 2006, which equates to eps of about 7.2cps by my calculation. Therefore against their 2007 estimate of 7.0cps, the one year gains at eps level appear non-existent from these transactions (and the additional shares on issue will be diluting gains from organic growth elsewhere). Then again, something is a little odd, as the first JV alone is said to add $8m per year to earnings before tax - does the china initiative whittle these back down to $3m?.

It also looks to me as though the $35m they are planning to raise must be taken as coming from a share issue - possibly at around $1 per share?

However, on the good side, the 2007 guideline is probably shown more as a continuation of 2006 business plus these initiatives. The reality could be considerably higher if growth in other areas continues and they are able to build further on these initiatives as it could be expected they would do. China e-health really does look like a big opportunity.

[Lizard]

Gave it some more thought. My valuation effectively unchanged at this point - potential profit gains offset by dilution. But increases both upside and downside risk.

Sold half at $1.11. Intend to keep the rest and see how things progress.

[k1w1]

Ditto that Lizard. Sold half at 1.11 and will wait and see.

[Phaedrus]

Some suggestions for IBA exit signals :-

(1) A break below the confirmed trendline (Green)
(2) 120 day Slow stochastic oscillator < 50
(3) Break below 5.5x Average True Range trailing Stop (Magenta)
(4) 90 day Chande Momentum oscillator < 0
(5) A break below a 120 day Volume adjusted Moving Average (Red)
(6) On Balance Volume breaking below its trendline (Green)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/IBA510001.gif

[Lizard]

Thanks Phaedrus. Am continuing my long tradition of selling too soon....I did look at the TA, but didn't like the idea that I might lose 15% before I noticed the trend-line break! By my logic it seems likely to me that the trend flattens out in the near future. But sharemarkets don't always listen to logic.

[croesus]

Quieter week, then last........ the question is will it be a 1 for 4 at 80c... if so will TAG take up their rights ?...... are more contracts waiting to be pulled from the hat ?
disc happy to be overwight (bordering diabetic) on TPC/TAG

[Lizard]

Hi Phaedrus,

Can't seem to get most of those indicators you used on my freebie charting - well at least not so they look like yours. However, must be getting close to testing your trendlines today? When/how do you decide if it is a sell or an opportunity to add?

[Phaedrus]

Yes, it is getting quite close to the trendline. No Sell signals yet though. I am not looking for an opportunity to add.

I would be very surprised if you come to regret your exit at $1.11 for all that!

[croesus]

Trading Halt ??

[OneUp]

Are IBA holders comforatable with the fact that IBA have a habit of capitalising product development expenditure rather than expensing all of it? ($7.9m in the six months from June to December 2005 alone).

If IBA had a similar accounting treatment to expense all development costs as they occur as, say, Technology One, IBA would be marginally profitable if at all.

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

Good comment One Up.

Am thinking about what you said, before being too impulsive in reply... as I can see two sides to this coin. So watchthis space [:I]

Do note and See, that .... they (IBA) raised $42 millions in a blink though which says something, although of course that is also dilutory. Obviously the Corporate Analysts and investors liked the figures and the story.

Regards,

Robbo:)

[croesus]

Agree with D/R....the 42m is serious money and was raised apparently very easily, that says a lot, Sure it is dilutory... but this is a very (hopefully) rapid growing company... better the dilution then borrowing and having a interest bill of 4m or so a year. What hopefully will happen next is that a big player will make a stand for10 or 15 % that should tighten the script up.
Disc Own a few via TPC (NZ)
cheers Croesus.

[k1w1]

I exited all but a small holding of IBA last week at 78.5 cents having sold half earlier at 1.11. I am not impressed by managements approach to shareholder value. This share was up to $1.20 when they announced this deal and the potential need for a capital raising. That dropped the price down into the $1.10 area and then it dropped into the mid 80 cents when they announced they had agreed to issue cash or shares at a value of 85 cents. It fell to 78 cents after they announced they had sold shares to institutions at 72 cents.Besides the dilution effect, the value of IBA shares has been impacted in a major way by the way management has dealt with the need for further funding for acquisitions.

There is no evidence that these institutions are anything other than opportunistic short term purchasers who can offload their windfall at a profit anytime the shares venture over 80 cents. Given the large increase of supply of these shares and the consequent satisfaction of the demand that was fuelling the share price rise I had no confidence in the short term future of the share price.

I am also not happy with One-ups information about research costs being capitalised rather than expensed. It assumes that every bit of research results in an increase in asset value and overstates the profitability of the business.

In effect this acquisition has been financed by a quickfire selloff of IBA shares at bargain basement prices. This has immediately devalued the share for longer term holders insofar as price and supply and demand constraints are concerned. I for one am unimpressed and have voted with my feet despite regarding this as a good business to be in and having made substantial gains on my holdings.

[Lizard]

Gotta love those Mac boys. First they tell you its worth 90cps. Then $1.20 something per share. Then they decide to dump at 72 cps...

Feel for IBA. They have played this game on bravado over the past while and it has given them a good space. This time, caught between a deal and a hard place - desperate need to finalise capital, an uncooperative major shareholder and a nervous market ready to take profits. Suspect they rise again. Given next years profit forecast of $25m is a forward P/E of 10, suspect the punters happy to buy it, no matter which way it's calculated. And if they remain true to form, maybe more upside from new business.

Had these as a possible buy again at 0.67, but too many other safer plays around. Still holding the other half.

[davidrob]

IBA

Agree with this overall Liz.

Great little perceptive post, hereon IBA Liz.....

Mac bank are [}:)][}:)]...... errrr on second thoughts.... actually; no. Do not get me started !! -- :) ;)

Fundamentally Liz; still assess IBA as a great business.... though , but that is of course, imo ...

Those "in the know would have slalomed & traded beautifully ..... through these "Mac Bank Witches Hats" -- though heightened the levearage through current correction (....nice work if you can get it... )-- .... classic bit of pseudo arbitrage....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

[croesus]

IBA have been quietly ticking up, on good turn over.
anybody know why ?
cheers Croesus

[Lizard]

Rumours about China deals maybe? Or perhaps just anticipation of a good result?

Still holding a few...

[croesus]

What happened to cause todays crash.

[Lizard]

Incredible wasn't it? Market manipulation, fund stuffing up their selling or just market nerves after seeing Macquarie and director selling? Triggered alot of stops anyway, so a very effective sell-off, with no doubt some happy day-traders enjoying the bounce!

Company did not seem impressed and re-iterated that nothing had materially altered previous guidance for 2007.

[croesus]

Price rising steadily, up 3c to 95 yesterday on good volumne.........

[croesus]

Up another 2c today, couple of million traded.....

[davidrob]

IBA Health (IBA)

He Croesseus---- To me this share still is an excellent Investment--and consequently def, imo only a Long Term Hold....

The lastest (IBA) Report imo was Very Good....

Good stuff heh!! :)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

[croesus]

Agree Robbo...... presume it has a HUGE market... but how big I have no way of telling...currently overweighted in TPC which has IBA as its major investment...
cheers Croesus

[croesus]

finished at $1.03.5 today on 1.7m sold.......... chart looks good to me... steady rise of late.........hopefully some more bullish announcements pending.. if it goes to $2 then TAG will be worth .50c plus
cheers C.

[croesus]

up again on good volume........... $2 July 07 if not before