Mouteki Trading - Anyone tried it

[huds]

Stumbled across this the other day. This guy shared his system less than a month ago on forex factory and already has his own forum dedicated to his tecniques with over 3000 posts. Pretty impressive.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/forumdisplay.php?f=75

[arco]

Hi Huds

There is certainly alot to read, but it looks like a new skit on an old idea......

Similar to Flag measuring, etc, etc. To do this, you find the size of the pattern's base and then add that to the approximate breakout point to come up with your measured move. To find the size of the base, subtract the low of point 2 from the high of point 1.

Bobs yer Uncle and Fannies yer Aunt........


http://www.chartpatterns.com/images/measured_move_azo_ex_again.gif


To do the Mouteki idea justice you may need to watch a 4 hour chart 24 hrs per day, and identifying points A and B for the trendlines may be very subjective for each trader.

I think Xerof may frequent FF, so maybe he can throw a bit more light on the subject

regards - arco

[huds]

Hi arco, appreciate the input. Yeah, there’s a fair bit of information to read, only just started looking into it but it seemed interesting. Certainly created a bit of a frenzy.
Cheers

[Xerof]

Yeah Arco's relatives are onto it....lol

I'm following it with quite a bit of gusto actually - it's a variation on Flag measuring - a slice of Tom Demark type 2 trendlines, and a variation on measured moves to identify targets. Definitely 4 hour charts are the bees-knees.

The guy unfortunately has shown his true agenda when he started suggesting people might want to sign up for an unspecified broker, with him as the IB, in return for 'advanced information' on his system...lol, so I suspect the frenzy will die out eventually.

But I have forward and manually backtested it on cable and I am very impressed with it so far.

At the moment it is being picked to pieces by the madding crowd, and doubtless will end up with so many additons/variations it will become unrecognisable.

I suggest you get the original explanatory docs from the thread as soon as you can if you're interested in it, before he whips them off in a Greek fit of pique.

regards

Xerof (the greek)

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Interesting idea.

Can you post a chart showing the current set-up on GBP.USD

Thanks - arco

[Xerof]

Here's one from Monday evening, which provides a text book set-up, and a nice hourly rate of return.....

http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/3428/gbpkn7.gif

There have been two since, see if you can spot them - one on Tuesday night which failed (I like to wait for the trigger candle to trade lower than the breakout candle low, so didn't enter that one) and one again last night, which is still in play, now with a stop at + 10 pips to ensure some reward for effort....

regards

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Xerof

Thanks for the chart and explanations.

I just checked the same period on Oandas 3 hour chart (4 hour not available), and that would not have worked. However, I'll fire up Metatrader and see what I can find on the 4 hour.

Are you only working on GBP ?? or are there any others that give good results

regards - arco

[arco]

Xerof

My first attempt......

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100606_gbp.gif


So do you enter once the 4 hour 'TL break' candle (through the yellow line) has completed . If not, at what point do you decide to enter?

regards - arco

Red line was a failure?

[Xerof]

Arco,

There is of course an issue with which 4 hour settings to use.....some platforms have a cycle which coincides with GMT 00.00 (which is what I use - InterbankFX is a good MT4 platform based on that particular cycle) Then there are others which cycle off GMT 00.00 +1, +2 and +3, so depending on what you have, you will get differing signals. Some wise old owls reckon over the long run it would come out in the wash, and I suppose thats right, but for now I prefer to use a GMT 00.00 start for the candles....

Yes, the entry is taken at the start of the candle that opens below the line, and as a 'filter' I prefer to wait until the price of that new candle trades below the low of the previous candle. This gives you a better probability that (in the case of a short), the selling pressure causing the test of the demandline was not simply absorbed entirely at that level.

In your chart, because the timing is not off a GMT 00.00 cycle, you have a later entry than I got last night (1.8813, after waiting for a lower low) and it looks like it would have been a sell right at the lows..... see my chart with the set-up...


I would also recommend getting your hands on Mouteki's documents, which are on the thread, here http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=8464, as there is a little bit of devil in the detail, in terms of stop loss management etc etc


http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/5456/gbp2cc5.gif

regards

Xerof

[Xerof]

Here's the one that was a potential loser from the previous night

http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/6594/gbp3yc3.gif

I am forward testing a whole range of pairs on demo, but so far cable is by far the most reliable, and to be honest has been a pip raking machine for the past two weeks. <s>Well over 1500 </s>1220 (my estimate was a little enthusiastic) pips [:p][:p](that includes pyramiding in as new lines are created and breached, and by moving original targets to reflect the new dynamics of the breached lines). Oh, and by taking profits on a Friday before New York go to lunch:D:D

Xerof

[Xerof]

Of course these trades don't always reach the projected targets, but the simplicity of it is that if the dynamics of the market change, as they do!!, new supply lines are created as well, and if those then come into play and are breached, the system gives you the heads-up to cut and reverse.....

nice huh??

;);)

[arco]

Thanks Xerof

Yes, my MT4 is from Strategy Builder, but I dont trade off it so I will need to download the Interbank version to test this strategy correctly. Who knows, I might come up with the arco refined version. LOL

Anyway, milk that cash cow while you can :D

And keep the thread going, - lets see how the system works in the longer term.

regards - arco

[Xerof]

I backtested this system on AUD/NZD DAILY, rather than 4 hourly charts, off a GMT 00.00 candle reset, gave 4000+ pips from Feb to date this year. 21 entries, 15 wins, 6 losses, 2 losses in sequence for drawdown of 179 pips, largest single drawdown 102 pips.

Most other pairs are unimpressive on a daily basis - interesting....


Xerof

btw, I use an entry filter: only enter if the new opening candle that has breached the TL surpasses the hi/lo of the previous candle, otherwise no trade

and on the daily, for you guys who are already long this cross, its about to give a buy signal in 5 minutes:D:D