Robbo's Guide To Investing

[djones]

Hi All,
Well 99% of people on here have read davidrob's posts in this ASX forum and most have made alot of money off his posted companies which he finds and analyses. Its all very well just waiting for him to find a company and invest in it when he posts but how many of you know how to go about finding these superstar stocks he seems to find time and time again. I for one dont know and thats why I started this thread. I would like to be able to find and analyse stocks as well as robbo does myself and im sure you would to.

If a few more people would also like to know Robbos secrets, methods and techniques to finding great stocks at the right time then post here and ask for it. Robbo has told me he will give us all advice and tips but he needs to know how many would find this of interest, so if its something you want to read and learn about please post here!

Thanks,
- Duncan

[info]

Count me in, always keen to learn more about investing.

After reading robbo's posts i get the impression he knows what hes talking about, but got a fright once when i looked at the results of the 2006 share comp and saw his name at the very bottom?.

[Lizard]

Start here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21999).

[Flying Goat]

Hi Duncan

You can certainly put my name down as one who is up for an Investment Class, Robbo Style...!!

I am particulalry impressed with the way that Robbo is not afraid to pick up the phone and call directors to ASK THEM whatever he can...! I am reading Philip Fisher at them moment and his "scuttlebut" approach is very similar to that which I see in Robbo applying judging by his posts. So..... when do we start...!?!?!?!?!? :D:D:D[:p]

Thanks
Flying Goat

PS I have been learning quite a lot both through reading this forum (certainly from Robbo, but also from others) and through researching things to post. I especially appreciate posts from people who are cynical about a particular investment, because I think we can learn alot from thos who have diffeent opinions to our own...

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by Flying Goat
PS I especially appreciate posts from people who are cynical about a particular investment, because I think we can learn alot from thos who have diffeent opinions to our own...


I to take close notice of the cynical or negative posts as most times on the internet people only post in stocks they are interested in and like, they tend not to bother commenting in those they view negatively so its good when they do to see the other point of view.

[Mick100]

I'm just grateful that I'm able to recognise a ramper when I see one. Seeems there's a number of very naive people here who can't do this.

The only ramping thread of Robbo's that I'v followed is the ITC thread that he started early this yr (because I already had a holding in ITC when he started the thread) - I suggest that followers go and have a look at the wild predictions made on that thread - 25c by end of march if I remember correctly - did'nt quite get there did it.

As for robbo being on the bottom of the stock picking comp it may interest you people to know that he was at the bottom in 2005 as well.

I think I have a good idea of what robbo's investment philosophy is -
Buy - ramp - sell
buy - ramp - sell
repeat...
.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100

I think I have a good idea of what robbo's investment philosophy is -
Buy - ramp - sell
buy - ramp - sell
repeat...
.



I thought we all did that on this site:D

But yes Robbo's style seems to be to buy and ramp small cap spec plays for short term gain. Performance above average shorter term, below average longer term (looking at his stock picks over the past two years).

SEC

[ONTHENOSE]

Mick 100,

As far as i am aware providing usefull, legitimate information and discussions was not classified as ramping???

Yeah you do your own research... But a point in the right direction is always usefull.....

As Djones states above " most have made alot of money off his posted companies which he finds and analyses"........:D[:p]

Unfortunatly i think you may have missed the boat a few times and missed out????? [:p]

If you dont like Robbos methods and forums why even post on here????
:([}:)]


Regards

Mike

[miner]

You boys need to start a thread called "How to pick a ramper" by the sound of it,rampers will be laughing there t*ts off when they see threads like this AND banking all your money.

If you can pick them you can play the ramp and make some money but the catch with this is that you never know when they are going to sell out and stop ramping,when they do this you can get caught holding the baby or should that be lemon.
Then we see your what happened panic posts,you know the little lost sheep one's as you bought on what a ramper was saying,remember the only way to make money in this game is through YOUR own hard work,no one is going to do it for you.

No doubt the majority of you wont stop and think after the last few posts on this thread but that's why rampers make lots of money and you are sitting there sh*itting over the lemon you bought that you didn't run a stop on as rampers also say stops are a trick brokers use so they can make money.

There is more than one major ramper on this site and if you cant pick them you WILL get burnt,wake up guys as NO ONE is going to do it for you,you have a brain use it,lazy people lose money in this game.

STOP and think why have I and others written what we have???.

Cheers
Miner

[Bobbyvee]

Well it is easy to knock others without making any positive contribution isn't it. Robbo loves a bit of excitement and doesn't get it right every time. Let's recognise the very positive performance of EMI, PBD, MMS, ANG, TRS just to name a few Robbo supported companies. All are very sound companies earning profits and have performed well. They cannot be compared with speccy explorers like ITC which may or may not fly (high risk / high potential gain). Robbo himself recognises the difference.
Read his and other posts, do your own research assessment of sector/company and risk, and make your own investment decisions. Accept the outcome, don't blame others.

[senor guacamole]

As a recent arrival to sharetrader, i have found robbos posts to be very astute and good at presenting the big picture of a companies potential, and after more research have bought into several of the companies and they have shown great profits thus far compared wiht my crappy NZX picks of slightly earlier in my evolution as an investor. it remains to be seen whether the 'robbo is ramper' advocates are correct and they will fall in value, but his posts have made me think in a deeper way about valuation of companies and i find i agree with much of what he says. As im trying not to think of him as a guru after the recent sucesses, its interesting to hear the rather negative veiws of some of the purple and blue stars brigade. OK he picked ITC wrong....nobodies perfect and as Bobby V says there are many solid companies he has got right.

[KW]

I appreciate everyone who brings a share to my attention in this forum. However, I still apply my own research as to whether I invest or not. I did pick up some ANG after looking at the numbers, but on the other hand the same research left me totally cold on ITE for instance.
A search through the site archive shows Robbo has had some hits and some misses. However, none of us has had a 100% success rate in picking hot stocks.

[davidrob]

Good morning everyone....:)

... Obviously; I do have my detractors...!! [:I][:I]

May God bless you and keep you.... Mick, Sec, and Miner....

My prayers for you are predominantly.... that you not become too bitter and cynical, as this is not... imo... healthy 'state of mind'-- or trait or attitude for you lovely folks.......

These attitudes are however; a bit demeaning of you.... as PEOPLE ...guys, and this ungracious spirit is not the ....real nice guys... which I know you surely are....:)

And if you (Sec, Mick100, Miner)-- ever want, or need, a friendly and healthy discussion, (or a nice warm hug) or to actually calmly.... and ratinally actually discuss..... about THE intrinsic value:) of the actual Stocks:) in question...!!!! :), ....... rather than launch into a cheap cowardly sideline snipe and a personal vindictive diatribe.... of distrust,resentment, and scoffing from the sidelines...

Btw... to mick, sec and miner.... ( I really know).... that this.... is surely...[?][?]--- not The Real, ' Mick, Miner, and Sec.'... --- ( or if you just want a nice warm, loving big Hug.... which will drive your sullen tempers away in a jiffy...)-- then feel free to book in at The Pub, for a beer and a chat....:)
and also a nice time to 'chill out' guys ....:)

Re:-- The stocks.. you mentioned... Impress Ventures (ITC) ...-- can we look at the plain facts..

(1) Go Back to the Impress Ventures--(ITC)-- thread everyone.

Not to what I now say. But back to the actual thread. And look at the facts...

Note the date on which my thread on Impress ventures (ITC) started... 9/1/06.

At that date(ITC was 6.3 cents.). Oil was pushing north of $70 a barrel.

Within 2 weeks from that date; the sahre had increased in share price and capital gains-- by 38.1%-- namely it was 8.7 cents.

(2) In another 7 weeks, [dated 20/3/06--to be precise]-- (ITC was more than 11.4 cents--)--a gain from the original price of my ITC thread...: 82%,gains in just over 2 months....

Please go and check these historical facts yourselves...

.... Please... [:I]

(3) In another 4 weeks (ITC) was just north 13 cents....
a capital profit gain on the (ITC)-- investment of: 106.3%.

Now let us look at that time -- who were the posters... ..on the my Impress Ventures thread-- apart from the....

.... happy happy happy happy trio...of mick, sec and miner.... :)

.... Who ... btw .... told everyone at the START of this thread; not to touch Impress Ventures....

These other posters were: were: Pago, Absolute Advantage, ohyme, Elyob, Vlado, Moonshine, Dazza,Packersoldkidney, cdchi, among others....

And they all admitted, and were grateful, to making significant Cash traded Profits... of various significant $$$$$ sizes ...

Will say it again; .... : Pago, Absolute Advantage, ohyme, Elyob, Vlado, Moonshine, Dazza,Packersoldkidney, cdchi, among others....
all admitted, and were grateful, to making significant Cash traded Profits....$$$-- of various significant $$$$$ sizes ...

Now if I were ramping, when (ITC)- went down in share price--(as they often inevitiably do)--and as (ITC did)-- on the significant several --- share price downward DIPS ---in that 4 month period-- I could have abandened the stock--and the (Impress Ventures thread...

Go back and look for yourselves..

Did I...abandon the thread...?

As we all know; this(ITC) was a oil exploration co.

It had a certain 'spec' quality consequently to it.

We also know Oil went back down; from a high of nearly $80 USA $$$ a barrel, to about $56 USA dollars today ....approx.

We also know that 'yes', they (ITC) did find Oil in/on the Mirage Murta Oil Project;--- in the Cooper Basin.

But unfortunately, it was not th

[edison]

Robbo,

Add my name to your appreciation list too!

May the Lord bless u more,

Edison

PS: PYM up another 11% today (PYMO up 15%)! Thank you for your alert earlier!

[miner]

Good try Robbo and no doubt you have kept many of your faithful sheep in tow with that predictable post,as you know it's not a matter of being grumpy etc as you put it,but rather some of us just know the game you play as we have watched you do it for long enough along with the godfather of ramping.

As for the shares you pick going up,they should if you are any good at ramping,if you choose to use that as a reason you don't ramp, up to you,but we both know that is not what I or others are talking about.

So will leave you to your game,but with a bit of luck this thread may have made a few people stop and think,if they have they will see that people like you stick out like dog b*lls as a ramper if for nothing else in the way you write- word your posts,as the above post has shown once again.

Cheers
Miner

[senor guacamole]

miner, im curious who you consider the dom corleone of ramping?

[Stranger_Danger]

I still reckon you're Stolwyk ey.

[davidrob]

HI Stangerdanger,

It is only 'common courtesy'--- if you wish to AGAIN make this claim;

,....which I have sincerely ....plainly denied emphatically before...

On what specific, logical and evidence based... factual basis ...Strangerdanger...do you come in from the side-lines-- and make this claim....??

Secondly, S.D ..... do you also make this 'side-line' one liner-- with good and pure intent-[?]- or just as a cowardly cheap shot...[?]-- or to add significant value to the discussion...

Thirdly, btw Strangerdanger, what as a worthwhile CONTRIBUTOR and recirocator to Sharetrader... which specific sahres have YOU introduced to the forum-- which you ahve done a ot of work and research upon...??

Fourthly, as a worthwhile contributor and value adder to this forum--again I as you to plainly state your lsited reasonings... so we can assess the worth of your arguments and your propositions...

So then,..... Strager Danger-- I would now kindly ask you..... to list your plain factual reasons .......for this specific claim and easy to make; sideline comment and libellous claim ..... Strangerdanger ...

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

-----------------------------------------------------------------




quote:Originally posted by Stranger_Danger

I still reckon you're Stolwyk ey.

[absolut-advance]

Robbo I think comments like the one by strangerdanger are just plain stupid.
Im sure you have better things to do than replying to certain posters on this tread, why do you bother???
Let people just take you as they find you, if they choose not to believe and consider you a ramper that is simply there loss, just simply ignore them and reply to those who want your advice.

I personally think you a "excellent skilled investor" but by no means infallible as i found out for myself...as we both know was...well a little disappointing for us both.

I also think its great when a poster brings up new unheard of companies which then get coverage on S/T.

For this alone you worth your weight in gold

Your a very valued member of the site.

Keep up the good work

AA

quote:Originally posted by davidrob

HI Stangerdanger,

It is only 'common courtesy'--- if you wish to AGAIN make this claim;

which I have denied emphatically before...

On what specific, logical and evidence based... factual basis Strangerdanger...do you come in fromthe side-lines-- and make this claim....??

Secondly, o you also make this 'side-line' one liner-- with good and pure intent-- or just as a cowardly cheap shot...

So then,..... I would now kindly ask you..... to list your plain factual reasons .......for this specific claim sideline comment .....Strangerdanger ...

Regards,

Robbo :)




quote:Originally posted by Stranger_Danger

I still reckon you're Stolwyk ey.

[Gazza-nz]

Robbo please keep your ideas flowing. I got into this game 18 months ago and always follow your threads with interest. As you always say in the foot not "do your own research" and I do, I get into some you recommend and others I dont.

When I read the commentary from the negitive contributors on this service I wish that Share Trader had a rule engine like MS outlook.
When mail revieved from XXXX - move to deleted folder without reading.

I will continue to read and learn and make my own decisions.
Thank you for your contribution to this thread, for your dry humor and for being Robbo.;)

[Paper Tiger]

Hi All,

They say that imitation is...the sincerest form of flattery;

.,,..?..!...but I must say...having downed a Distinction Ale...or two,

...which in my IMO,,...is better than any Aussie XXXX stuff [:p][:p][:p]

@#//@:D:)[:o)]...but I must say:

or did I say that before?....Oh yes i did...Pass another :D bottle :D please--.

Now, how do you get this metal thing off this thing?

Right, now where am I.......
.
.
.
.
.
.
OH yes, I must say...that i do find whatshisname again?--davidrob:)?...

..Silly name if you ask me...

---[?]---his style of posting....[B)]

just a little bit;;:...'',,,[8][}:)][8]

....tiring..[|)][|)][|)][|)][|)]:D

DO you need any help with that glass?

Kind Regards

Paper Tiger [:I]

[miner]

Senor Guacamole at a glance the godfather of ramping may come across as a lovely helpful wise old man but if like myself and others you have watched him in action for years then you know what his real intentions, game is.

Lets just say I spy with my little eye something that starts with "S",if I was to say anymore I might wake up with a horse head next to me.

It is the people that have been around forums for years that usually pick these people for who they are and the new ones that get sucked in,don't get me wrong there is money to be made out of rampers posts as sites like this are part of the game,but if you know the game you are playing then you are more likely to be on the winning side.

This thread is and will show the different sides the winners the losers and the "Ref Ramper".

Cheers
Miner

[lacmur]

One of Robbo's 'ramps' just sent EMI up almost 10% intraday. Everybody is rushing in from all over the place to buy on Robbo's latest pumping post.

Since Robbo started mercilessly 'ramping' this share in May 2004 at 10.5c it has risen a staggering 1190%. Volume has increased relentlessly and nobody has seen through his evil disguise. Indeed, from the confines of an NZX site with an ASX appended board viewed by at most 100 people a day and often picking up far less than half that number in posts, Robbo has succesfully masterminded the worlds longest undetected ramp. And to think he sold out on 2 June 2004 for 12c a share to pick up a 14% profit!

I'm glad we've finally exposed Robbo for getting it right far too often.

[senor guacamole]

hoping i dont have to sleep with the fishes myself but..the big fella, he shares the first syllable of his name with a certain poular russian vodka, does he not?... and the last is an essential component of a candle?

[KW]

Hi Robbo
I dont like ITE because it doesnt meet my basic minimum investment requirements (as opposed to EMI and ANG which did). These are:
- must be profitable
- must pay a dividend
- must have at least 3 years of increasing EPS and DPS
- must have both RoE and RoC over 10% pa

I'm not much interested in the maybes of the future but in consistency of the past.

So thanks for ANG mate. Wish you well with ITE.

[miner]

Best you go into hiding senor as the six to one mix just needs water,then again maybe they use that ready mix stuff you get in a bag now days[?][xx(]:D,either way was nice talking to you may you R.I.P.[|)]

Cheers
Miner

[davidrob]

Ahhh ...KW...

You a Classic Disciplined Intrinsic Value Investor--with a requirement for deep historicaly proven Value-in the classic Ben Graham school ..... of Investor tradition...with a preference for discounted future cash values trading at a discount to market with low Price Ratio's...

.....Good Stuff....

... Excellent....:)

K.W...... If you read my latest post on emitch (EMI) -- on my reply to Lacmur; you will also see-- the alternative (so called)-- father of the Growth Investor approach -- by Phil Fisher--encapsulated in Fisher's 15 Points... which I have also quoted in that emitch post...from Fisher's book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits...

-- the genius of Buffett of course, is he managed to synthezise the two (2) approaches -- AND has a free float of Insurance Reserves Investmetn Cas-- Capital--from GEICO INsurance and General Re.

Good one KW,

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

[djones]

Can I ask how threads on a small forum such as this can have any effect on companies with market cap of 5-10 million +?? Im new so can someone explain that to me?

[KW]

$12 million worth of share trades have gone through on ANG in the past year, so could the multi-millionaire on this site please stand up? I'm looking for a husband in case this share thing doesnt work out :-)

PS. Robbo could you do me a favour and write a piece on my problem child PME? If anything needs a good ramp its this stock!

[Jay]

Always good your Posts PT :)

I must say that I do find them a little difficult to read also,
not yours PT.
I for one like others here, appreciate shares being brought to my attention when research etc is there to back it up.

Keep up the good work davidrob

[lacmur]

quote:Originally posted by djones

Can I ask how threads on a small forum such as this can have any effect on companies with market cap of 5-10 million +?? Im new so can someone explain that to me?


Good question. It is definitely possible for skilled rampers to operate especially when they build up a following. Like the Pied Piper or the 'Good' Shepherd. Companies with very low liquidity and market cap are susceptible to skilled ramping on boards. My point, made rather clumsily above, is that I doubt a ramper would make much effort on this board for the ASX. He/she is likely to be talking to two men and a sheepdog. There are plenty of others with much greater readership that would be better venues and result in greater price movements should readers slavishly go out and buy as they whistle the ramper's tune.

On the other hand, the NZX board on this site with many more members and posters in a smaller market may be a better venue for a ramper to operate. Some of the suspicion of posters seems to migrate across from there and may well be based on real concerns.

There is an interesting (if slightly paranoid)forum on this topic in the other place.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20698&SearchTerms=scream,and,shout

[lacmur]

On second thought, don't bother reading the forum unless you like to see the practical outworkings of a paranoid delusional capitalist state. Just read the article which is quite good.

http://csdl2.computer.org/comp/proceedings/hicss/2001/0981/04/09814036.pdf

[trader-jim]

If robbo is into Pump and Dump then he's missing out on some great gains.

I just had a quick look at a few of the threads started by Robbo and still active.
Looking at the gain in SP from the day thread was started till close yesterday.

EMI up 945% in 30 months
PBD up 305% in 30 months
MMS up 117% in 24 months
ANG up 61% in 3 months
ETR up 26% in 21 months
GBT up 144% in 12 months
MTN up 451% in 17 months
MAL up 84% in 24 months

when's the dumpm going to come!!!

[KW]

There was a good article in the AFR about the ramping that went on in regards to Cudeco (previously AIM). HotCopper was the forum used. But AIM was classic pump and dump - it all happened over a period of a few weeks.

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by KW

There was a good article in the AFR about the ramping that went on in regards to Cudeco (previously AIM). HotCopper was the forum used. But AIM was classic pump and dump - it all happened over a period of a few weeks.


PLS in New Zealand was also a classic pump and dump, look at the number of posts on sharechat.co.nz regarding PLS, its all they talk about.

[Stranger_Danger]

In reply to Robbo's questions

(1) I haven't introduced anybody to any share on this website. Why would I? Share buying is a competitive business.

If a woman finds a hot item at 50% off in a clothing sale, does she yell "look, over here girls!" or does she quietly buy it?

If you see a house you want to buy, do you mske an offer, or write up its merits then circulate it around the neighbourhood?

With small cap shares, in particular, other investors are your competitors. It is very hard to buy such shares in volume - why in gods name would you possibly want to make it harder for yourself?

In a small cap stock, there may only be 3 buyers and 3 sellers at any one time.

If you are trying to buy it, even if you simply convince 3 others, you have DOUBLED the number of buyers.

What sane person would want to do this? Well, unless they had already bought, or were selling. Guess that makes more sense.

(2) Your posting style is very different. Completely different, a personality that is not possible to confuse with the other personality referred to.

However, the type of share, repetition, bullishness and "overall impression" are strikingly similar, despite the "first impression" of a different writing style.

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by senor guacamole

hoping i dont have to sleep with the fishes myself but..the big fella, he shares the first syllable of his name with a certain poular russian vodka, does he not?... and the last is an essential component of a candle?


Pu (http://russianvodka.com/most_popular_vodka.htm)Wax ?

[KW]

PLS - Anyone who buys into a company that is losing money needs their head read. Better off playing red on the roulette table at the casino (or even buying Telstra :-)

One thing about my rules, while they might make me late into a good stock they do work to keep me out of the dogs like PLS, and avoid the ramps like AIM.

[Lizard]

Stranger Danger, why are you reading this forum if you:
a) don't intend to help anyone else out by posting your views on a stock? and
b) don't believe people posting on stocks are working in your favour?

(Believe me, there are plenty of other reasons for posting!)

Also, I am certain that Robbo and Stolwyk are different people.

And for the record, I have mixed views regarding Robbo's posting style and the gains he may or may not make from it. But as he has plenty to offer posters in terms of raising interesting new prospects and discussing investment criteria, then I think he is as welcome on ShareTrader as most of us nutters.

[shasta]

Well said Liz

Given the large amount of members & views on the various threads on ST, few tend to post anything for the benefit of others, unlike Robbo, Snoopy, Stolwyk, Phaedrus, Paper Tiger etc

Personally i read other posters opinions to reinforce my own research, & try to contribute where i can on topics i feel i can add something to, though mostly on the NZX forum.

[SCHUMACHER]

goodness me ....this is a bit of a sad thread aye fellas.....mmm

[stolwyk]

Hi Robbo,

Thanks for the very strong contribution you have made and are continuing to make to this site. This forum won't be the same without you.

Gerry

[bull....]

fancy some people having a paddy over someone whos had some good calls.

a shu maybe we should show them how to make a good return in a week not a year ha

[OneUp]

Robbo provides some interesting leads and, what's better, actually explains (often in great detail) why he likes them. Like all of us, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong.

We are (hopefully) all big enough and ugly enough to do our own research and verification and take responsibility for our own decisions.

IMO sharetrader is the much the better for his presence.

[lacmur]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Hi Robbo,

Thanks for the very strong contribution you have made and are continuing to make to this site. This forum won't be the same without you.
Gerry


Hmm. A slightly unfortunate choice of words there stolwykus ... perhaps wouldn't be the same without you fits better.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by lacmur

Hmm. A slightly unfortunate choice of words there stolwykus ... perhaps wouldn't be the same without you fits better.


This thread looks to be a 2006 version of the original:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20700&SearchTerms=daylight,robbo-ery

Been a while since I head the phrase Stolwykus....

[brisand]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Senor Guacamole at a glance the godfather of ramping may come across as a lovely helpful wise old man but if like myself and others you have watched him in action for years then you know what his real intentions, game is.

Lets just say I spy with my little eye something that starts with "S",if I was to say anymore I might wake up with a horse head next to me.

It is the people that have been around forums for years that usually pick these people for who they are and the new ones that get sucked in,don't get me wrong there is money to be made out of rampers posts as sites like this are part of the game,but if you know the game you are playing then you are more likely to be on the winning side.

This thread is and will show the different sides the winners the losers and the "Ref Ramper".

Cheers
Miner

[brisand]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Senor Guacamole at a glance the godfather of ramping may come across as a lovely helpful wise old man but if like myself and others you have watched him in action for years then you know what his real intentions, game is.

Lets just say I spy with my little eye something that starts with "S",if I was to say anymore I might wake up with a horse head next to me.

It is the people that have been around forums for years that usually pick these people for who they are and the new ones that get sucked in,don't get me wrong there is money to be made out of rampers posts as sites like this are part of the game,but if you know the game you are playing then you are more likely to be on the winning side.

This thread is and will show the different sides the winners the losers and the "Ref Ramper".

Cheers
Miner

[brisand]

Re ramping: I think many of you are suffering delusions of granduer that you have such great powers of persuasion on this site to influence the ASX on a share's value. You only have to look at other forums to see that there may be no interest in some of the shares discussed here, and realy do you think this site controls the ASX.If a person was a ramper he or she would be on every other share forum posting the same on the other sites
I believe Robbo and others have shown by their postings that they have researched the shares they are discussing.
You cannot win all the time. If you are one of these persons who like to knock others, be fair and show us your share portfolio over the last 10 years ?

[thereslifeafter87]

quote:Originally posted by Stranger_Danger

In reply to Robbo's questions

(1) I haven't introduced anybody to any share on this website. Why would I? Share buying is a competitive business.



I don't advertise a share until I've already bought it, but once I have done so I generally feel I should share my discovery with the people on sharetrader who tell me about their discoveries.

It's much easier to find good shares if there is a network of people dedicated to finding them.

[davidrob]

Robbo's Ruminations from The Pub.....

Good morning everyone,

Firstly let us acknowledge, that some readers, do not care 'a fig' about some of the ideas that lie behind the posts on my threads...

That is fine. :)

Indeed some readers are openly hostile....

Not sure whether that is all that courteous, but that is their democratic... 'right'...in an 'Open Society'... :(

However;--- it is perhaps becoming maybe evident--[?][?]--- that there is also .... a small group; .... who sometimes.... find the 'odd fragment' ....maybe.... partially worthwhile ..... and worth a quick read, ... from time to time.....:)

And it is... to this Group, (going from djones initial idea expressed, in creating this thread--)-- who seem to perhaps want; a different angle and/or 'dimension' of 'thread'--[?] and series or posts -- ....than the traditonal:-- ...

".... Robbo/The Pub reckons ..... that 'xyz Stock'--- has now got excellent potential; and I rate it....(at this present time)-- personally very highly because...... of, on my personal assessment of the following evidentiary perceived facts,....

Therefore, my own personal hypothesis on this specific 'xyz' stock is formed, .... due to ...this reason,...

And ... to back this up, these secondary reasons are also, in my view relevant, because of,'this a,b,c,d,e,f,g.... and that... a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,....' and therefore, in my assessment; this:-- 'xyz stock's current share price.... is imo, likely to be .... about to move up,... imo,...and on my assessment.

Therefore, with respect to xyz stock , a 'inflection/catalyst', is about to form, in my view,..... because... of: imo, the following ... a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, .... reasons...."....



[i][blue]

**[b][size=2]However, it seems, that what djones wants, and others also maybe it seems ... ?- ... (...I think... [?]?)-- is a closer look instead... into the Pub's Recipee Book ....[b][size=2][navy]and more of:--

-- the actual: [b][black]How to ...[?]? ..... ... question.......and... not ...

... just the: -- What to invest in...?? -- question...

..>>>.... On my interpretation, that is the GIST and central theme, of .... djones actual request,.... and djones original suggestion, and djones view, is in the broader sense, supported by some ....(an admitedly not be others --) -- who enjoy, benefit from... and who like to read this Sharetrader/Investor Forum .....


... -- If -- ... the above interpretation, is 'broadly correct', -- could some of the folks ... who do want to proceed along these lines.... --[?]-- confirm this over the next few days, and then.... if there is 'a quorum of demand and consent'..:).. will possibly suggest, a few broad ...--- 'in the good spirit of good Web Forum-- discussion; and a welcoming attitude and common courtesy and respect for each others views, -- a few gentle ground rules' .... errrr... and how we might kick this off.....-:)-

The sole purpose, is to Benefit people,to improve our learning 'journey'-- ( and this definitely includes me..) ... with improvement of our interpretative and predicitive skills, knowledge; and to create ... a sense of a learning community- where people feel liked, very warmly welcomed- .... and where we try to 'keep it real'-- have a bit of fun; and even sometimes.... a sense of good natured entertainment, and where everyone, is civil and feels they are respected ....

Please therefore, let me know.... whether this is cool,and whether I have interpreted djones original request...broadly.... okay...?[?]?...

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

[senor guacamole]

Im valiantly attempting to educate myself on investing, reading thru many of the 'bibles' of investment (by fischer, graham, lynch etc)and would be very keen to hear from robbo (and others) on the 'how to invest' question. count me IN!
PS...buffett fans, the first share i ever bought, (1 x BRK-B) quarterly profits up 4.7x !!!!legendary work from the oracle!

[trader-jim]

Count me in too.

This thread got a bit hi-jacked there but it seems to have died down so maybe the detractors can leave it alone now and we might learn something.[8D]

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by senor guacamole

Im valiantly attempting to educate myself on investing, reading thru many of the 'bibles' of investment (by fischer, graham, lynch etc)and would be very keen to hear from robbo (and others) on the 'how to invest' question. count me IN!
PS...buffett fans, the first share i ever bought, (1 x BRK-B) quarterly profits up 4.7x !!!!legendary work from the oracle!



Is that share seriously $3500US per share? Or is it cents or something... How many shares do you own?

[djones]

You have it exactly right. Me and others want to know the "how to" not the "what to" question! I want to know how you find a stock originally, how you assess it and the criteria and type of things you look for when finding one of your stocks, I also want to know what books you find beneficial and if you use any charting etc software.
Thanks,
- Duncan

[Bobbyvee]

Spot-on Robbo, that is what I believe djones was suggesting and is well supported by those of us who have a positive attitude to sharing knowledge and ideas. On that point I fully agree with Thereslifeafter87 approach - and let's not confuse enthusiasm for ones new found "hot investment opportunity" with dishonest attempts to manipulate other traders (particularly the less experienced).
Referring to the criticism in earlier posts, (which have no real relevance to the original djones request), I would ask the question:
- why would Robbo frequently spend so much energy assisting others (eg. getting people to think hard about why they would invest in T3) when it has no relevance to promotion of his own investments? Answer IMO - enthusiasm, thoughtfulness and a genuine interest in productive investing.

A further suggestion - the credibility of the ShareTrader threads would be enhanced by more sharing of views on when share prices may be getting ahead of themselves and we may choose to reduce holdings. Obvious people would act before posting but let's face it, in most cases investors here don't hold such volumes that they would actually influence the market significantly by starting to reduce their position.

BobbyVee

[ohmyme]

I think Robbo should be commended for his efforts on this forum. He has managed to uncover some absolute gems in the past. In just about every case Robbo is ahead of the curve. In fact he is so far ahead of the curve that generally, at the time the thread is begun - NOBODY gets it, including me sometimes. I think a thread that is dedicated to uncovering the various secrets and methodologies of Robbo is a fantastic idea.

Thanks for all your efforts Robbo and please keep up the posts.

cheers.

[senor guacamole]

Hi Djones....its 3500 US$ for 1 x class B..the class A are worth 30x more ie over 100,000US$ each as far as im aware the most expensive share in the world!! the Buffmeister has a well documented aversion to share splits (he thinks it discourages speculators) so thats why the price has just gone up and up, well that and his feindish abilities in capital allocation, ....being a bit of a novice its just the solitary class B for me (sigh) , got it 4 months ago for 3041 US$ wish id got another (not ramping BTW- honestly). mind you i wouldnt have had so much fun on the ASX if that was the case! I imagine buffett will be one of the investing heros popping up a bit in the ensuing discussion, looking forward to it.

[davidrob]

Good Morning (again-[:I]_... everyone,

A clearer picture imo, is.... now beginning to emerge; in what is wanted.

This is great.

One thing would really help me; ....to help you....

Some of you are, (I think) students between 19 years of age and 25 years of age...(I think)-- (Hence your mutual love of learning; and desire to learn to fish... & not just be taken out for a free feed ....to the award wining, seafood smorgasboard restaurant all the time...)-- which is cool....

So therefore, would help me a lot guys; to have a:

Firstly (1) -- 'Hypothetical -- 'nominal' amount of -- # Monopoly Money :).... 'pretend dollars' .... ie: an amount of inital $$$ Capital $$$ which you would nominate that you would like as a 'inital stake' for these --- sort of: 'exercizes in shared learning'-- to invest--into xyz stock....

Please reply... ASAP ...on your ideas for your answers; this question....

Secondly, think it is a great idea, to say that 'such and such'-- a share might be getting a bit OVER - priced now ......-- like we did with Dulhunty Power (DUL)- -- or alternatively-- such a:-- 'xyx share'--- might now--at-- 'such and such a price'-- be worth lightening--even though it is still a great Company as such-- and not selling out completely--but worth 'lightening our proportion... of allocated capital .....for x,y. ...and z reasons...

Thirdly, received, from you all-- 'loud and clear'-- your message about the books, what materials sourced,[?] and where to get the ideas from etc....

Will do.

And also; the corrolary to that, imo, which is... AS important, ....

.... How to properly synthesize and interpret and filter that material/information; .... and stream of data/info .... most productively .... maybe also ...[?]

Anyway, a response to: point one (1)-- in particular; would be helpful ....from my end ....gals and guys...

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

[senor guacamole]

Hi Robbo,
i dont know how others work it but i generally try to save up and invest in amounts from 2000-5000nz$ averaging about 3000$ per transaction to save on brokerage, holding around 10 companies in my portfolio. so my input would be how about 10,000-40,000$ initial capital for this hypothetical (yet curiously similar to reality!)
new investor?

[djones]

$3000 per trade works good for me as well, ties in nicely with a $30 brokerage fee (1%) as well.

[Jay]

About $3-5K works for me as well Robbo

[mamos]

Hi All.

Agree with the trade size. Thats what I aim for too.

Firstly I would like to thanks Robbo for his informative posts and email correspondence that he has provided me with, and other members too.

I fully support what is being proposed. I am student and have not been investing for that long so have heaps to learn still.

It would be great to have contributions from some of the other senior posters, that also have a lot to offer. e.g. Lizard, One-Up, Steve Fleming, Absolute, Packer etc...

Looking forward to see how this progresses.

Cheers

M

[davidrob]

Okay, nearly there...

This inital small portfolio amount is however absolutely critical to everything I do-- so it is not the amount per trade which interests me -- but the ...

Total 'hypothetical... Pool.... we are starting from .....

As this will 'tie in' with the lighten, 'this or that' theme, and the actual allocation and proportion and ....'relative weighting'-- of allocation to each specific stock-- from here on-- ....and why I might choose one stock before another-- and why this might allow us to somehow get a bit lucky -- and make our money, optimally 'sweat more'-- as ohyme calls it--I like that phrase,-- and even soetimes--to not having most of our money being lazy and sitting there for ages, without increasing...

And, just quickly-- no I hardly ever use charts.. except in the most rudimentary way.... with a weather eye to the 'reversion to the mean' mathemetical/physics... laws....

Q. What is 'reversion to the mean'-- and how is it//might it be-- [?] relevant to how to choose the right stocks...?

So therefore in the light of senor-guacomale's thoughtlines./... --

....I will start provisionally -- with $30,000 -- as the 'nominal' figure--and disregard the $4000 per trade idea ....--as that is pre-supposing a equal weighting....

If ....hyothetically-- somemone has say $4000 -$7000 'Total' -- at this stage ....to invest... then just proportion everything accordingly ...

---------------------- sign off----- on the hypothetical amount & now more on the hypothetical 'how to' in relation to that ...---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The system.... for this thread...-- when I type the Letter -Q--- in bold black-- that is the signal to come back with suggested answers, no matter nhow off beam or whatever...

Why so...?

Coz I do not wish to turn this into a monologue--boring--rather better to have, imo, a dialogue and a discussion...

We will all learn more--and have more fun, imo using the Socratic method --imo-- of tossing some 'open ended' questions around....

So if there are, for example, five Q's scattered through the posts-- that is your cue to reply to some of them... Got it...?? -- ;) !

Now down to business... (finally).

---------------see below-----------------------------------------

Firstly, my own Investment philosophy is to:

--- Place fewer Big Bets.....than is normally prescibed....

Now this will indirectly have implications on the 'how to question'-- as it pre-supposes something; which is very important and which Buffett and his offsider Charles Munger very much agree with.

It also surrounds much of mathematical probability theory....

Q-- Why might this be a more efficient and wise investment strategy--ie: placing few bigger bets...?

So again; if I had $30K -- or if I had only $7K to invest... (and from herein; I will stick to agreed example of an inital $30K) ...--... but for $7K as initial capital to invest; just divide into same relevant proportions-- -- then the question is;

Q How many-- ?(not what at this stage)-- but how many shares?; would I hypothetically seek to Invest in....[?]...to maximize my return but also, have a acceptable risk profile...?

Q With $30K -- or $7K-- how many actual share investments?; Qand what might be the ideal amount per share approx invested...?

---------------------------------------------------------------

Now then ....let

[underground]

yeah robbo, i support you all the way. and i have openly admitted to being a student.. as for age.. i turn 19 this november... so this summer ill be working my ass off (like last year) to raise more capital for me to invest in.. ive even drawn "interest free" money against my student loan to help in this.. but yah i guess most people initially have to do the "hard yards" before they can raise a decent amount to invest with.

but my trades are around 3-5K as well, but i only hold about 5 stocks at a time (max) as my assets are limited. and most of my assets are in equities.

EDIT:

Q What time period is reasonable...? --

medium term...

Q. To achieve what level of returns-- ?.

30-40% is my goal..

Q.. With what level of reasonable risk ?

low/medium..

and ill take the trade figure into a pool of about 15K at the moment

[davidrob]

Thanks for kicking things off underground...

You don't have to disclose your capital-- but anyway just proportion everything accordingly--if that feels right for you....

Your answers were excellent. And you are gutsy...bvery gutsy going FIRST.. Mars Bar to underground.

Just one simple amendment required ....

.... I need:

Detail,and precise specifics, ie months years, percentages -- like my time period is x months for the first Investment period... and I would like to achive a xyz %age increase on my capital one year, and xyz in 2 years...

BTW ---2 years -- 3 years max is fine for now.... for me to describe my 'how to' methods....

Now there is a mars bar avaliable,--(only 2 years past use by date)-- if any one can give me the 'c' word in their answers; to these series of qwuestions, that underground had the first crack at.

Also there were other questions there too from memory....

Regards,

Robbo .

drrobo@bigpond.net.au

DISCLAIMER
Views expressed in this opinion expressed on Sharetrader, as above are explicitly unwarranted, and expressed on a strictly: ‘Without Prejudice’ basis.. These views, are only personal opinions and speculations,and ought not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. My opinions & correspondences, expressed in this email and/or on this internet site are my tentative thoughts and opinions only. They are, nothing more than that. These views are not…. (repeat: ‘not’ …)…to be read as being, or even forming any form whatsoever of a investment recommendation; general or specific. Instead, they are just simply personal ideas and opinions, and to repeat, are NOT to be read or interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, these expressed opinions here, are not warranted in any way whatsoever, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy, authenticity, or likely predictive outcome. Therefore, these comments are highly subjective and prejudiced by the writers own opinions, perceptions and outlook. As a result, these views may be prone to errors, as they are not official in any way, have not been checked by an authorized third party, and are possibly incomplete, ill informed and/or inaccurate. With this in mind, the author reminds readers that the opinions expressed here; are strictly on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Remember readers, to read these opinions as just one of many expressed personal subjective thoughts as one of many ideas, in the ‘common market-place of the other many various freely expressed opinions’. Readers must recognize that, as only one possible view-point among many, and at best; as only the author’s highly subjective whimsical thoughts, impressions, and intuitions, you must not rely upon these views for your own decisions. Readers must also note that as with all expressed opinions, they are definitely open to discussion and refutation, as well as logical weighing and consideration of other alternative interpretations and view-points. For any investment decision, the writer urges readers to always do your own separate investigations and research, and always seek your own qualified and authorized third party independent financial advice.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)[/size=1]

[TheBossMan]

Is 'compound' the word you're looking for?

I'll follow this thread for sure, with occasional contribution. After dabbling in several methods of investing and trading, I've settled down to fundamental analysis based on a residual earnings model. Agree that this model may not suit some industries/stocks.

[davidrob]

hi again.

Been thinking...

You are not supposed to go away & research and worry about your answers.

U do not have to answer all questions....

U just need to 'bounce back' what comes instinctively....'straight into your head'...

U may write back, too hard, have not got a jolly clue....

(2) As of next post--will have Two seperate Sections...

(a) First section is Strategy & Philosophy....

This is critical for me; re. the 'how to' but might be a bit wishy washy and esoteric for some.

(b) Second section is just plain wraper version-- and is -- 'tips that work for me; on how to to find great stocks'....

Let me say; it is by synthezing the two (2) approaches and discipliones-- but the first one involves a lot of brain bending work and brain stretching and time-- so might not be for everyone-- ,but anyway--for those who eventually want to sorta make a living out of stocks; that is, in my view only--- the better idea, and has possibly made me-- I think a, errrr.... a 2% better only-- 'marginally better stock picker'-- and helped me ....in the 'how to' side of things on a regualar basis...

----------------------------------------------------------------

So keep it light and don't get hung up-- jsut lets keep a 'bit' of dialogue-- and not allow this to turn into a monologue too much.

My next post will ...also.... have the 'tips that work for me' --easy plain wrapper section....-and I will put that first so if you don't want.... 'the other' ....you don't have to worry about it.....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo . :)
drrobo@bigpond.net.au

DISCLAIMER

Views expressed in this opinion expressed on Sharetrader, as above are explicitly unwarranted, and expressed on a strictly: ‘Without Prejudice’ basis.. These views, are only personal opinions and speculations, and ought not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. My opinions & correspondences, expressed in this email and/or on this internet site are my tentative thoughts and opinions only. They are, nothing more than that. These views are not…. (Repeat: ‘not’ …)…to be read as being, or even forming any form whatsoever of investment recommendation; general or specific. Instead, they are just simply personal ideas and opinions, and to repeat, are NOT to be read or interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, these expressed opinions here, are not warranted in any way whatsoever, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy, authenticity, or likely predictive outcome. Therefore, these comments are highly subjective and prejudiced by the writers own opinions, perceptions and outlook. As a result, these views may be prone to errors, as they are not official in any way, have not been checked by an authorized third party, and are possibly incomplete, ill informed and/or inaccurate. With this in mind, the author reminds readers that these opinions expressed here; are strictly on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Remember readers, to read these opinions as just one of many expressed personal subjective thoughts and ideas, in the ‘common market-place of ideas’—and are only that. Readers must recognize that, as they are only one possible view-point among many, and therefore they are at best; only the author’s highly subjective whimsical thoughts, impressions, and intuitions. You therefore ought not to rely upon these views for any form of advice or counsel. Instead you are responsible for your own decisions. Readers must also note that as with all expressed opinions, they are definitely open to discussion and refutation, as well as logical weighing and consideration of other alternative interpretations and view-points. For any investment decision, the writer urges readers to always do their own separate investigations and research, and always seek their own qualified and authorized third party independent financial advice.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo . :)

[davidrob]

Mars Bar on the way Boss....

Brilliant....

Compound is imo-- and Buffett's the key... but think about this for a minute -- it is also criticaly important; when we come up with the strategy for how we choose what we choose, and when we sell, and why me might sell, and also getting to our destination....


Boss, imo, it is also related to what you also allluded to Boss, (Residual Earnings and fundamental analysis)-- as for your strategy you've settled with-- (but what Charles-- Munger reckons)--[quote]quote:[i]-
For those Source Material/Book request folks -- note that name--... >>> Charles Munger-- Q. do we all know who Charles Munger is ...??-- and how he influenced Buffett, and what he brought to the table--.. etc etc...

....Errrr... will summarize some Munger tips on how he finds great stocks in next post--

Anyway Charles Munger reckons we neeed bout 90 models in our head--and of those ninety-- about 15 -20-- are are rather central...
will start to cover those Munger themes on the How to-- and his models-- over the next few days...


BTW-- hope you all do not mind..[}:)][:0]...... getting a sore brain--!! --You guys have no idea what you have let yourselves in for --sucked in-- you'll want to beat up djones at the end of the week I can tell you .....!!;)[}:)][}:)]:)

Well done Boss,'compound' was/is spot on.

Regards,

Robbo :)

PS. Any of my share tips--will go on this thread-- ;)--24 hours-- before ---going on the Central Boards-- to give you guys the first look see -- :)--if 'anything juicy' pops onto my desk over the next few weeks...

Kindest Regards,

Robbo .:)
drrobo@bigpond.net.au

DISCLAIMER
Views expressed in this opinion expressed on Sharetrader, as above are explicitly unwarranted, and expressed on a strictly: ‘Without Prejudice’ basis.. These views, are only personal opinions and speculations, and ought not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. My opinions & correspondences, expressed in this email and/or on this internet site are my tentative thoughts and opinions only. They are, nothing more than that. These views are not…. (Repeat: ‘not’ …)…to be read as being, or even forming any form whatsoever of investment recommendation; general or specific. Instead, they are just simply personal ideas and opinions, and to repeat, are NOT to be read or interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, these expressed opinions here, are not warranted in any way whatsoever, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy, authenticity, or likely predictive outcome. Therefore, these comments are highly subjective and prejudiced by the writers own opinions, perceptions and outlook. As a result, these views may be prone to errors, as they are not official in any way, have not been checked by an authorized third party, and are possibly incomplete, ill informed and/or inaccurate. With this in mind, the author reminds readers that these opinions expressed here; are strictly on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Remember readers, to read these opinions as just one of many expressed personal subjective thoughts and ideas, in the ‘common market-place of ideas’—and are only that. Readers must recognize that, as they are only one possible view-point among many, and therefore they are at best; only the author’s highly subjective whimsical thoughts, impressions, and intuitions. You therefore ought not to rely upon these views for any form of advice or counsel. Instead you are responsible for your own decisions. Readers must also note that as with all expressed

[davidrob]

Robbo’s Guide To Investing.


Subject: If we start with only $20, 000 and we compound that amount by 73%, every 4 months, how long...?- before we are worth a personal $ One million ( $1, 000, 000) dollars ...??

...Okay guys,

Clue and a “Tip on what Works for me” -- to the: How much we want to Gain...?? --- realistically .... and, in what period of time…[?]-??..

The answer to this conundrum; is encapsulated, imo, in this quote; from Warren Buffett in 2001. (Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting).

"Charlie (Munger) and I, decided long ago that in an investment lifetime it's too hard to make hundreds of smart decisions. That judgment became ever more compelling as Berkshire's capital mushroomed and the universe of investments that could significantly affect our results shrank dramatically. Therefore,we adopted a strategy that required our being smart - and not too smart at that - only a very few times. Indeed, we'll now settle for one good idea a year.".... said Buffett.

So what I am driving at ...gang, .....is not to follow this literally necessarily, but to get the kernel of truth ... the lies.... in it.

So again — if you’ve got say.... '$20K '---to start with, and you –COMPOUND .. — .. that; by a rate of .. (for example: # 73% ... every 4 months )-- —

....then .... How much, have you got, ??-- including your initial $20K — in approx 2 years time….?[?]?.

For me, that is maybe a good goal as a nice starting point ....…

Q. So what is the simple outcome; to this question…..[?]?

Kind Regards,

Robbo .:)
drrobo@bigpond.net.au

DISCLAIMER
Views expressed in this opinion expressed on Sharetrader, as above are explicitly unwarranted, and expressed on a strictly: ‘Without Prejudice’ basis.. These views, are only personal opinions and speculations, and ought not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. My opinions & correspondences, expressed in this email and/or on this internet site are my tentative thoughts and opinions only. They are, nothing more than that. These views are not…. (Repeat: ‘not’ …)…to be read as being, or even forming any form whatsoever of investment recommendation; general or specific. Instead, they are just simply personal ideas and opinions, and to repeat, are NOT to be read or interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, these expressed opinions here, are not warranted in any way whatsoever, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy, authenticity, or likely predictive outcome. Therefore, these comments are highly subjective and prejudiced by the writers own opinions, perceptions and outlook. As a result, these views may be prone to errors, as they are not official in any way, have not been checked by an authorized third party, and are possibly incomplete, ill informed and/or inaccurate. With this in mind, the author reminds readers that these opinions expressed here; are strictly on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Remember readers, to read these opinions as just one of many expressed personal subjective thoughts and ideas, in the ‘common market-place of ideas’—and are only that. Readers must recognize that, as they are only one possible view-point among many, and therefore they are at best; only the author’s highly subjective whimsical thoughts, impressions, and intuitions. You therefore ought not to rely upon these views for any form of advice or counsel. Instead you are responsible for your own decisions. Readers must also note that as with all expressed opinions, they are definitely open to discussion and refutation, as well as logical weighing and consideration of other alternative interpretations and view-points. For any investment decision, the writer urges readers to always do their own separate investigations and research, and always seek their own qualified and authorized third party inde

[TheBossMan]

20k to $1million in 2 and a half years (approximately)

[davidrob]

Fair dinkum Boss,

Your getting all the Pub's mars bars....[:p]

The Boss is 100% absolutely Correct....[^]

But what about the 'kernel of truth' in the quote from Buffett, as related to that...??

Answers gratefuly received please...

Okay, while we await these answers.... let me tell you quietly, something related....

...... Shhhhhhhh.

...Quick. .... Lock the door....

Uncle Maxie.... quick now... Close the blinds...

....Will just quietly whisper this once....

Here we go then:----

... .....If you 'own' the principles that lies in The Boss's answer ... and the ROOT cornerstone truth; in what he has said--and how he got the answer-- you will begin to unlock-- the how to consistently -- find shares-- that will take $20k .....to the answer ....The Boss gave, in about 2.5 years.....

-- Now could someone out there; in Pub-cyberland-- [?] --please...tell us, What the important part of the Buffett quote was...?[?]

And why is this stuff;[?] in my view, is so so vitally central to the 'how we find great stocks'-- and get to our pre-determined destination.....[?]

And then will 'tie in everything', from this foundation,as we start on our merry journey....

Regards,

Robbo :).
drrobo@bigpond.net.au

DISCLAIMER
Views expressed in this opinion expressed on Sharetrader, as above are explicitly unwarranted, and expressed on a strictly: ‘Without Prejudice’ basis.. These views, are only personal opinions and speculations, and ought not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. My opinions & correspondences, expressed in this email and/or on this internet site are my tentative thoughts and opinions only. They are, nothing more than that. These views are not…. (Repeat: ‘not’ …)…to be read as being, or even forming any form whatsoever of investment recommendation; general or specific. Instead, they are just simply personal ideas and opinions, and to repeat, are NOT to be read or interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, these expressed opinions here, are not warranted in any way whatsoever, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy, authenticity, or likely predictive outcome. Therefore, these comments are highly subjective and prejudiced by the writers own opinions, perceptions and outlook. As a result, these views may be prone to errors, as they are not official in any way, have not been checked by an authorized third party, and are possibly incomplete, ill informed and/or inaccurate. With this in mind, the author reminds readers that these opinions expressed here; are strictly on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Remember readers, to read these opinions as just one of many expressed personal subjective thoughts and ideas, in the ‘common market-place of ideas’—and are only that. Readers must recognize that, as they are only one possible view-point among many, and therefore they are at best; only the author’s highly subjective whimsical thoughts, impressions, and intuitions. You therefore ought not to rely upon these views for any form of advice or counsel. Instead you are responsible for your own decisions. Readers must also note that as with all expressed opinions, they are definitely open to discussion and refutation, as well as logical weighing and consideration of other alternative interpretations and view-points. For any investment decision, the writer urges readers to always do their own separate investigations and research, and always seek their own qualified and authorized third party independent financial advice.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo . :)

[senor guacamole]

i reckon..the fact that two of the best investors in the world thinks it too hard to make hundreds of smart decisions...they limit it just a few which lets allows them time to mull things over and analyse more deeply

[clearasmud]

Very interesting thread Robbo and Students!
One lead you may like to investigate is Comet Ridge Ltd.
Great management,great oppertunities things happening very soon
I hold heaps since 13c.Its been a pleasent ride.
These guys feel they have a competitive advantage with innovative directional drilling technology.
Minimal downside at 29c imo however this stock does trade thinly.
Dilluted marketcap about $22m.
New strong management team is a pointer to the future.
Regards,

[davidrob]

Robbo's Guide to Investing.

Hi Clearasmud,

At this stage; I do not want to use this thread to post in detail on specific good share picks….(although I will post some briefly from time to time)— but will then immediately; start a SEPARATE thread on those shares, .. in their own right.

Errr….. Reason…….Robbo ?

Answer: ‘Coz everyone seems to have indicated; they want…. this …..specific Thread……to be about the -- ‘How to’ —and not just a laid down smorgasbord …..of interesting and possibly great ….. specific share tips and ideas…

-- So clearasmud; as for your share tip on Comet Ridge—I do not know this co. but will find it most worthwhile to have a investigation…on Comet Ridge, on its own thread. Therefore, C.A.M.-- Would you be able to start a specific thread on Comet Ridge Clearasmud—where we can examine that company on a specific Comet Ridge thread.. ?

Okay then,

Just .....to re-cap where we are up to... and why for me it is necesary to 'get' the compound thing., and what might be worth exploring next....

If you believe you can turn, say $20K-- into $ 'x' in 'y' time frame... then you can set the parametres on margin of safety and Risk versus Return.

Its a bit like a pilot plans his flight plan from Sydney to London.. he has his fuel load, air speed, wind direction, weight of aircraft,ceiling for crusing altitude, air pressure, and myriad other variables...that he can put--as data in-- to set his 'margin of safety to get to London.

... So let us reduce this to the practical then....

Hypothetically; if I had $20K-- would I be looking for one, two or three or more shares...??[?]and what number -- would increase the probability of me getting.... to my desired destination...??[?]

Now there are two destinations... as The Boss has nicely
demonstrated….

The first destination — is a 73% gain on the $20K.

In other words, we want the capital to grow to $34.6K.

And ultimately, we want to arrive....(second ultimate destination)-- ...at over $1 million k in ....2.35 years time ….
** It is scary working out, where the compound numbers go ....in the two years following that....

...At this stage, let us agree, That would be an excellent outcome from $20K.

So the first question is broadly answered.

Here it is: I am looking for a share, or 'set of shares', that will reliably.... get my $20K to $34.6K ....in approx 4 months.... in the first instance...on the journey to my goal of $1 millions in 2.5 years.... or whatever I feel is reasonably attainable; given my skill sets & calibrating other factors.......

Question: Am I more likely to get this outcome with fewer or greater shares? [?]

Answer: I will argue for fewer .... not... greater.

Which means, imo, we will need, to be highly selective with ...'the few ' which we do actualy choose.

So specifically; how many shares, is best ….[?]

...In my view....?

Well.... if I had, say.... $20K, (with the 73% objective in 4 mths approx in mind), then this is what I would proceed to do…...

I would initially; 'narrow down my choice'--- to approx nine (9) share possibilities...

How I would narrow down that choice, in terms of criteria-- [?]

.....— ?-- to the initial field of nine—?[?]?

... I will explain that... in my next few posts.

However; 'the principle' is this ...for now:

If I want my money to 'sweat', it involves not only brilliant growth shares in growth undervalued companies — but combining this with broader inflection and catalyst research — and detection —and timing — to get my money.... [b]to a

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by davidrob
Subject: If we start with only $20, 000 and we compound that amount by 73%, every 4 months, how long...?- before we are worth a personal $ One million ( $1, 000, 000) dollars ...??[/b][/size=2]


That's 420% per annum annualised.

If you compounded just $20,000 at that rate for only 10 years you'd be worth $276,574,187,663.46. That's $276 billion.

Buffett needed to make "only" 22% per annum to get filthy rich. I take my hate off if you can do 20 fold better.

In fact by year twenty you'll have a personal net worth greater than the current GDP of the entire planet, so I (along with all your other surfs) will definately be taking my hat off.

Robbo, I can only assume you're taking (or on) the piss tonight.

[brisand]

I think the question everyone is asking themselves is where and how does a person decide on a particular share to research, it is impossible to research every listed stock, does one rely on articles in the press or discussion on shares by other people to do further research ?

How does one start ?

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by brisand

I think the question everyone is asking themselves is where and how does a person decide on a particular share to research, it is impossible to research every listed stock, does one rely on articles in the press or discussion on shares by other people to do further research ?

How does one start ?


Good question, recently I have been using asx.com looking through certain sectors going to every stock and reading there annual report and financial statements. So far found only one company to look into furthur and thats MBA.asx its very hard to start looking if your not sure what to look for though!

[trader-jim]

Can you explain a bit more about what you mean by "inflection"?:)

In answer to one of your earlier questions as to why you have less rather than more investments. I think its because you can concentrate better on fewer investments and therefore not miss the critcal bits of info. I think Peter Lynch also called it di-worse-ification, relating to companies that get into types of business that they aren't familiar with.

[brisand]

I would reccomend Conscious investor as the best stock selector I have ever seen you can change the parameters to suit your own requirements, EG what rate of return you want from a company, how much borrowing they should have, the persistency of results over a number of years ETC.
From their selections from your parameters you then do your own research, but knowing you are working on a highly consistent performer.

[davidrob]

Hi One Up,

that 22% annualized for WB is a bit misleading....

IN the first several years he was doing considerably more than that-- but when he got the billions-- your right--....

And herein is one of the good points you raise-- -- it is easier to make... larger %ages -- with smaller amounts-- examples say in last short period -- in a period of 4 months-- ite - 145% and ang,79% and PBD 74% , DUL 105%, IPN 68%, TOX--64% --and I belive that there are many other shares -- gbst, iss, mms, and hSK,rfg, etc etc..which have a high chance of achieveingthat number within the 4 month time frame....

However, you are right One Up, if you were trying to move.... say $5 millions ...into ite .....from 7.5 to 8.1 cents --that would be near imposible -- so your universe of shares is obviously more limited at those monetary levels.

- And therein; is one of the clues... it is my belief that in often--85+%-- age of the time -- the great opportunities; for high %age gains-- lie in-- the microcaps and smal caps end of the market.

** But I put the '73% number' there as a nominal amount-- and am glad you challenged it -- One up; coz it also is important.... that whoever the investor -- she/he work with what they feel is realstic and achievable....so One Up thank you for that .....

** -- Instead of focusing on the %age- number -- maybe then Oneup; ... let us nominally reduce 'it-[?]'-- .... to a floating number -- of say a nominal-- 50%-- every 5.5 months-- say-- it is unimportant at present for purposes of this thread's principles-- what I aim to do on this journey anyway; -- is track the selection performance anyway-- using the methods we all arrive at ... and btw Oneup;--for this purpose--I am going to eschew shares like EKA, ETE, and PYM .... and other mining, oil/gas, or 'concept stocks'; or spec stocks .... with no increasing revenues ......-- and then we can all 'review' the various outcomes --%age wise ....good and bad-- as we go....

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)


drrobo@bigpond.net.au

DISCLAIMER
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[davidrob]

Robbo's Guide To Investing.

Hi TJ,

Good question.

Actualy; excellent question....Trader Jim ...

I take... 'inflection' (for the purposes of the share market)-- for me; .... is where you 'see' -- you have a 'clear insight'-- into, what few others can at the time perceive with similar clarity....

-- ie: -- a rare 'convergence'-- of global economic events and forces, technological developments, meeting .... at Full Frontal-- to fill a previously unfulfilled Need -- with truly massive globally related market economic Demand pregnant with real economic demand potential -- and then; ..... it suddenly 'crystallizes' .... and 'meets up' -- as a catalyst -- to create a rare & unique event .... which allows the astute investor; the opportunity-- to earn out-performance returns...

... Some examples....

Bill Gates was/is.... a genius.

But Gates; imo, was only able to create Microsoft --- at a particular point in history....becaue of certain technological developments, that preceded him,-- namely telephones, telegraph wires, Edison's electric light bulp and recording technology, transistors, and micro-chips, and the Computers which were originially developed in the second world war--and because of the mathematical computations and genius works of Pascal and Charles Babbage ....centuries earlier.

- Furthermore; due to communications--the telegraph and telephone and globalization--etc, etc.... this also coverged & inflected-- to allow for new global paradigms-- to cause a opportunity of massvie change, disruption and inflection....

So forms change....

Paradigms change......

New forms emerge...... Opoprtunities spring up -- that were completely unimaginable, unrealisitc and uncommercial before.

But of course ...inflections...& ...catalysts; can be more subtle....

For example, now looking back...

Ask yourself ....deeply ....this Question....T.J.

At what poiunt, and what 'economic, technological and global forces' --- did all 'Events' (with a capital 'E')-- in some way,.... converge, catalyst and inflect-- ....

...... or build up; ... As a 'heightened Economic Strong Demand , with pent up growing unstoppable pressure' -- to form.... a catalyst -- ..???--

To cause say ....the Australian ASX listed companies ....like say for example: ----

Boom Logistics, Melbourne IT, The Reject Shop, RCR Tomlinson, Worley, Emitch, Cedar Woods, Count Financial, Senetas, gbst, IWL, ...

and....

iba health, IPN Medical,Port Bouvard, Imdex, Mortage Choice, Seek, Real Estate .com, HWW, Finbar, Ammtec, Monadelphous,Tox, Wridgeways Australia,Sunland, it&e(ITE) ....... etc etc.. -- to have ---

A 'catalyst style CONVERGENCE inflection' ---- or convergence of global economic and technological and/or socio political or demographic forces -- .... to allow for..... Such a successful Outperformance of Return -- for all stake-holders -- ....including the Investors...in these ASX companies... ??

- And why did so few people; .... fail to see.... the inflection earlier ... ??..

...>>-- . Why was that .. ?? [this is a super critical question imo]....

... In these questions, imo, Trader Jim, lie some of the answers...to what you are seeking...

So Trader Jim, maybe--??-- at present; you are looking at the question --.... a bit from the wrong angle...imo....

TJ, in other words, what variant perception ??-- -- would you have needed to have had -- to maxmize your returns, for exa

[senor guacamole]

Robbo i guess you mean the years before 1965 cos after that its been pretty steadly in the 10-30% P/Annum range.......when he was much smaller pre-berkshire he has certainly alluded to getting much higher gains in smaller cap stocks(with a wistful glint in his eye, i imagine). just as an aside, id be interested to learn what his results were back then, and what people think is REASONABLY AND REALISTICALLY achievable nowadays in ASX small caps as discussed (excluding miners specs etc an agressive small portfolio of minimum 5 well selected shares.....) thats the 64,000,000$ question isnt it....personally i think 100%pa would be a great result for this type of strategy and is what im gunning for ... but not achieving yet!

[edison]

Robbo (and others),

One thing needs to mention about here is the use of stop losses. They are there to protect capital when things go wrong. Even Robbo picks stocks that has gone the other way.

I have to admit the first one I bought based on your info, Robbo, is NHE/GLX, and the second one being WSS (but I exited that one early when it dropped to 13.5 cents). Of course we know what happened and I am still waiting for GLX to come back.

I have only been actively in the market for the last 1.5 years, whilst I have made some gains on some stocks, I also have unfortunately learnt the hard way, that is having significant losses on some stocks because of lack of capital protection [V], and in a way greed and being too naive about the market and traders :(. But I won't blame anyone for that because it is my money and I am responsible for it and no one else. Also I do not see it as a loss now (I did get emotional about it before) but as gain in knowledge so that in the future I know I will do well because of the real pain in the past. But I have to say stop losses is always a good thing because:

If u have $20000 dollars and put it on one stock, lets say 20000 XYZ stock at $1:

- Later u found out XYZ has dropped to 50 cents (lost 50%) and u sold it and get back $10000.

So in order for u to get back to $20000 dollars from 10000 dollars u need to buy some thing that will gain 100% rather than 50%.

That's why so many people lost their money because it requires higher in percentage terms to regain the money lost, and they do not understand this principle. That's why capital protection is SO IMPORTANT!!!!!!

Even though u may do research and think the stock u buy is good quality, sometimes things just go wrong. This is especially true in small spectulative stocks where traders reigns supreme, and they will do anything to get money off u!!!!

Anyway, the most important things I can think of surviving and prospering in the stock market is:

- capital protection (stop losses)
- Learn from your mistakes, especially the big ones.
- Never give up. I mean it. Never give up.
- Actually (I mean it) Do Your Own Research.
- Do not fall in love with any stocks, no matter who(not even Robbo [:I] - no disrespect with u at all here) says, or how the market preceives it.
- Have a plan (I am still fine tuning it at the moment).
- Don't compare yourselves with others. Just stick to your own plan and goals. Other people are ALWAYS luckier than u.
- Don't be greedy. If u cannot help it, then u will learn it from your losses sooner or later.

I think I have hurt enough [xx(], surely I will reap the fruits in the future.

My two cents,


Edison[8D]

[OneUp]

When you use a "stop loss" based on share price movements you are effectively allowing other investors to tell you what to think.

An investor who understands the company he owns and its prospects does not need a stop loss of this kind.

If you are going to use a stop loss, perhaps it is a good idea to benchmark it to (1) the market index and (2) the industry. Why sell a perfectly good stock just because the All Ords had a terrible day?

My "stop loss" is to sell without hesitation when a company fails or is likely to fail to meet my profit expectations.

BTW Edison, I liked your bit about "never give up". This is sage advice indeed.

[OneUp]

The market has averaged a 7% real return (i.e. after inflation) for the last 200 years.

We're currently enjoying a period of above average returns.

I recall Dimebag mentioning some time ago that Buffett was averaging 50% returns per year in his early days. That seems a realistic target in the current market. Long term I'd be ecstatic with 30% per annum.

Of course I'm talking about averages. In some periods, like the one just gone, many investors (myself included) have enjoyed triple digit gains in a few short months. But I don't think it's sustainable.

An average includes winners and losers. For every EMI, TRS or AGS, there's a WSS, COS or NWA that don't perform to expectations. Peter Lynch reckons a 6 out of 10 strike rate is very good. One way to increase returns is to improve that strike rate to 8/10 or 9/10.

That's what I'm constantly striving to do. What keeps the sharemarket interesting is that there's always more to learn :)

[TheBossMan]

Question: where does the initial list of 9-10 shares come from? Are there any web sites that allow filtering of companies based on market. cap, shareholding levels, p/e and other parameters?

[edison]

OneUp,

With stop losses sometimes u can always buy the stock back cheaper, which I did for a number of occassions.

How u set the stop losses is another question, which is an art in itself. It could be technical, or fundamental as u mentioned. It should almost warrant another thread.

[Bobbyvee]

Robbo in your reference to larger investment sums ($200,000 plus) and "skin in the game" are you saying -

- keep a significant amount in say Blue Chip investments and initially work for the larger % returns with say 10-20% of the total.

[clearasmud]

[quote]Originally posted by davidrob

Robbo's Guide to Investing.

Hi Clearasmud,

At this stage; I do not want to use this thread to post in detail on specific good share picks….(although I will post some briefly from time to time)— but will then immediately; start a SEPARATE thread on those shares, .. in their own right.

Errr….. Reason…….Robbo ?

Answer: ‘Coz everyone seems to have indicated; they want…. this …..specific Thread……to be about the -- ‘How to’ —and not just a laid down smorgasbord …..of interesting and possibly great ….. specific share tips and ideas…

-- So clearasmud; as for your share tip on Comet Ridge—I do not know this co. but will find it most worthwhile to have a investigation…on Comet Ridge, on its own thread. Therefore, C.A.M.-- Would you be able to start a specific thread on Comet Ridge Clearasmud—where we can examine that company on a specific Comet Ridge thread.. ?

Okay then,

Check out my thread:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21595&SearchTerms=coi

[senor guacamole]

thanks one up your point is well made..look if buffett made an AVERAGE 50%PA in his early years , im gonna reduce my goal to that....as i think my chances of outperforming him are low!
I was also confused by the 'skin in the game' comment, have heard it used for directors who own a lot of their own companies shares...but that seems different from your meaning Robbo?
also re capital preservation, having had a dabble with shares 2 years ago i put about 50% of my total capital in a little company called ION ...and lost the lot as it promptly went belly up...not only that i bought more as it went down!! either a stop loss, better stock selection or a combination of both would have remedied that. so preservation of capital is crucial (the lesson i got from this debacle), whether by a stop loss or margin of safety in the selection of and price paid for a stock.
BTW I use direct broking but have found that i can only set up stop losses on NZX holdings...as most of mine are ASX, can anyone reccomend a discount online broker (easily usable from NZ) that i could set up stop losses on ASX stocks?

[Lizard]

Hey Senor Guacamole, I was with you on ION. Now I realise how dumb that was... Wasn't 50% of my capital. But it gave me the motivation to go out and learn alot more about what I was doing - which led me into finding ShareTrader.

My targets are lower - 25% pa long term. But I am looking after quite a bit of money for other family members, so I diversify just to keep it more capital-stable and not scare them too much. I'm also more interested in finding a method of investment that will give me a good income into old age and give me maximum free time for other things rather than rapidly building capital at this stage.

I find Robbo's methods interesting, but I find micro-caps very unpredictable in terms of reported results and share price behaviour, so I only have a small amount of capital in there while I try to learn more. I also tend to hold positions for 3 years+ on the larger portfolios, so compounding 50% returns every 5.5 months becomes a little less likely. This is partly because of the difference in CGT between Australia and NZ which makes it less favourable for NZ investors to become short term traders.

I can easily point to shares I own which have made 50-70% in 4 months, but if you average the returns out across the other 75% of shares I held which did 0-20%, then the results are not nearly as exciting...

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by senor guacamole

thanks one up your point is well made..look if buffett made an AVERAGE 50%PA in his early years , im gonna reduce my goal to that....as i think my chances of outperforming him are low!
I was also confused by the 'skin in the game' comment, have heard it used for directors who own a lot of their own companies shares...but that seems different from your meaning Robbo?
also re capital preservation, having had a dabble with shares 2 years ago i put about 50% of my total capital in a little company called ION ...and lost the lot as it promptly went belly up...not only that i bought more as it went down!! either a stop loss, better stock selection or a combination of both would have remedied that. so preservation of capital is crucial (the lesson i got from this debacle), whether by a stop loss or margin of safety in the selection of and price paid for a stock.
BTW I use direct broking but have found that i can only set up stop losses on NZX holdings...as most of mine are ASX, can anyone reccomend a discount online broker (easily usable from NZ) that i could set up stop losses on ASX stocks?


Posted - 02/09/2004 : 9:19:09 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Re ion
been thinking for a while this co smells bad.
Non brand power manufacturing is best left to the chinese who are transforming their technical prowess

Good advice??
sell ion buy ajl or cbh or oti or nog or atr end







Interesting this one ,i was one of the first to blow the whistle on this one.Still AJL,OTI and NOG haven,t done too good over the past 2 years but at least they arn't dead.
AJL has suffered from poor management,focus
NZO possibly as well plus long time line
OTI suffers from weak pricing power,factory teething probs
ATR suffers from weak commodity pricing power plus long time line

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by senor guacamole
I was also confused by the 'skin in the game' comment, have heard it used for directors who own a lot of their own companies shares...but that seems different from your meaning Robbo?


quote:Originally posted by senor guacamole
I was also confused by the 'skin in the game' comment, have heard it used for directors who own a lot of their own companies shares...but that seems different from your meaning Robbo?

Good old google is our friend:

"put skin in the game idiom. To take an active interest in a company or undertaking by making a significant investment or financial commitment."

OR

"A term coined by renowned investor Warren Buffett referring to a situation in which high-ranking insiders use their own money to buy stock in the company they are running.

The idea behind creating this situation is to ensure that corporations are managed by like-minded individuals who share a stake in the company. Executives can talk all they want, but the best vote of confidence is putting one's own money on the line just like outside investors!"

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard



My targets are lower - 25% pa long term. But I am looking after quite a bit of money for other family members, so I diversify just to keep it more capital-stable and not scare them too much. I'm also more interested in finding a method of investment that will give me a good income into old age and give me maximum free time for other things rather than rapidly building capital at this stage.

I find Robbo's methods interesting, but I find micro-caps very unpredictable in terms of reported results and share price behaviour, so I only have a small amount of capital in there while I try to learn more. I also tend to hold positions for 3 years+ on the larger portfolios, so compounding 50% returns every 5.5 months becomes a little less likely. This is partly because of the difference in CGT between Australia and NZ which makes it less favourable for NZ investors to become short term traders.

I can easily point to shares I own which have made 50-70% in 4 months, but if you average the returns out across the other 75% of shares I held which did 0-20%, then the results are not nearly as exciting...


I agree Liz, even for a small portfolio (and proabaly even more so) IMO its is dangerous to have 100% exposure to micro/small caps - you need some decent dividend paying mid to large caps that will perform day in/day out in there, to balance out the more unpredictable specs....give some solidness to the portfolio

Also, sometimes it pays to resist being to kind of greedy....even returns of 20% p.a. will set someone starting out, up for life....no point increasing risk levels to try and acheive 100% p.a. which is inevitably likely to result in bad news.

having said that, i think it is fantastic and admirable what Robbo is doing in this forum...i am sure it will give everyone some things to think about

[senor guacamole]

Yeasss Lizard.. i thought id repressed the whole ION incident but all that talk of capital preservation brought it (still sweating!)..lesson learnt is valuable and an incident like that is great motivation to get it back albeit having to get a greater return just to get back to ground zero (which im still 5% short of). I wish i hadve known about sharetrader and read your warning CAM.

good one DJ, that sounds right. so if im reading it right, what robbo was alluding to was if he had a large amount of capital $200,000 or so, to split the portfolio into a conservative portion (sound well managed companies with steady growth)and a 'skin in the game' portion (significant investments in a few companies higher risk higher return as discussed).
sounds sensible to me, ive currently got about 25% of my portfolio in what i consider conservative portion (GPG, BRK-B) and will look to increase this as my capital grows, salting away the hopeful gains of the 75% high return portion.

[djones]

quote:Originally posted by senor guacamole
ive currently got about 25% of my portfolio in what i consider conservative portion (GPG, BRK-B)


I also have 25% in GPG as my concervative stock!

[clearasmud]

I,ve got my portfolio in many specs but am currently only achieving 20%pa.
However I believe with experience and effort high flyers can be found.

[trader-jim]

So Robbo

Do you maybe find the situation first, a news story or political decision and then think mmmmmm who will benefit from this, either a specific company, or a sector and then look for the best in that sector or a company with something extra to offer which will then allow that company to benefit from the news or decision?

Is that the sort of thinking that goes on in your head or talk that goes on at the pub?

[trader-jim]

As to the other discussion about spread of investments I have about 35% by value in conservative stocks. I have been back in the market for 4 months and have an IRR of 48% PA, but that is misleading due to about 40% of my gain being from 1 takeover which may not happen that often.

I was out of the market for the last 3 years due to circumstances beyond my control.

Love is grand
Divorce is a million

you get the picture.

[absolut-advance]

Hi everybody :)

Very good post Edison [8D]... it seems we have both been through some of the same very important learning lessons....

"FOCUS INVESTING" which Robbo talks about although a great way to increase leverage to upside..does infact also increase the leverage to the downside.

At all times one must know the risks involved and that margin of safety is based upon ones perception at the time,
even if ones perception is based upon onces perception of the facts and their perceptions of the obvious outcome it is still but ones perception, hence capital protection via diversification and stoplosses have there place in some risk tolerances.

Perception of the masses is ofcourse what one must for-tell should one wish to predict possible outcomes in the sharemarket.

Often but not always perception is lead or formed by and /or driven by a companies earnings or possible potential future earnings, in most cases.

In Robbos case he is well protected via diversification via a large capital base.

Some smaller investers should note that Robbo isnt in the same shoes and can afford to take higher risk as his capital allows for diversification across a broad range of higher risk higher reward companies increasing his exposure to the upside and limiting his risk via capital diversification.

As Edison has mentioned.... Should a share say for instance NHE drop 60 % and you took your losses, Your next investment would have to go up 120% just to break even.[V]

I believe in almost everything Robbo teaches there is a lot to learn from him....he is highly intelligent... educated and insightful..and his intentions are good.

But just remember if a share pick tanks you will hurt more than him...[:0]

For one...... His MARGIN OF SAFETY IS GREATER THAN YOURS.... he brought in cheaper..earlier

Two.... He has better Diversification.

Three...He has the leading edge and the scuttlebutt time and knows when to sell before you even know what day is is.[:p]

He is very good with a good track record but ... NOT INFALLIBLE..... no one is...

D.Y.O.R and KNOW YOUR RISKS.

Be greatful for the diversified fields of experience which this forum offers

AA:)

Disclaimer: Im drunk most of the time...


quote:Originally posted by edison

Robbo (and others),

I have to admit the first one I bought based on your info, Robbo, is NHE/GLX, and the second one being WSS (but I exited that one early when it dropped to 13.5 cents). Of course we know what happened and I am still waiting for GLX to come back.

I think I have hurt enough [xx(], surely I will reap the fruits in the future.

Edison[8D]

[Flying Goat]

Hi All,

Well, excellent to see that this thread has returned to that which it was originally intended for: discussing investment criteria. I will be following the thread and contributing where possible, after having seen that Robbo has picked out many stocks that have achieved returns as high as 500%, 600%, 700% and even 1100% in less than three years, my respect for the analysis that he contributes is immense. I also appreciate his style in that it is always respectful and good natured.

Furthermore, having been involved in a couple of Robbo's threads, the thing that was particularly pleasing is that discussion flows freely among all different the users, everyone brings something constructive to the table. There is usually both agreement and disagreement and often members add useful insights based on their own research, all in all a great environment for discussing comapnies, their products, competitors, management, intrisic value and general prospects.

With regards to my investment goals... hmmm, well I am long term for sure becuase the concept of profits being taxed more than once has always been abhorent to me. Also I prefer concentration. Regarding specific % returns vs risk: i believe Buffets concept that low risk should equal high returns, sounds ridiculous but think about it. If yu can model probability, based on objective assessment of chances of certain outcomes, to identify situations that have a high probability of strong % increase with low probabilty of loss, risk is low and potential rewards are high... (easy enough in theory but hard to find, hence my enthusiam to follow this thread, to help find them...!)

Cheers
Flying Goat

[davidrob]

Robbo’s Guide To Investing.

...Hi everyone,

Great to see some creative ideas being thrown around now…...:)

And excellent that these beaut creative THINKING, which is being stimmulated....

Few querries & comments; about-- ‘Skin in The Game’….

.... —In what context was I using the phrase… .. ‘Skin in The Game’…. ?

It was in this context actually....

..... When I was reading ‘Stock Market Wizards, by Schwarz, I came across this idea, and saw a parallel with the other great Wall Street trader, Jesse Livermore — who used the same technique—which he described as pyramiding, and then later I noted that George Soros .... also uses ... a variation of the same concept…

Again; the ‘format' of the ‘skin in the game/pyramiding application’ may vary; and be tailored to suit diferent personality traits or the investor’s self awareness, in question, but the principles seemed to me, to be relatively parallel.

The principles are these:

'Hypothetical trading'--- does not really work.

You need, ‘skin in the game’, to ‘game plan/scenario’--- your choice of share—and its likely turning point; in a realistic scenario. …

By having some initial ‘skin in the game/stock’ ….you become more sensitive…. to its value or otherwise…..

- By then deciding to either: ‘pyramid back out’ (exit)-- or ‘pyramid up’ (increase holding up to a certain price point)…., as your confidence in the catalyst of the stock and the intrinsic undervaluedness increases, you can increase your margin of safety; and reduce the down-side…..

Coming down to what Edison was saying, I have some thoughts in ‘note form’….

Trial and Error

Microcaps are, if anything, exercises in iteration.

Hypotheses are formed, tested, adapted, re-tested, and a given company's competitive advantage, readiness for the market, center of gravity, culture, and path …. are forged in the fire ....of trial and error.

Some fresh Questions & Ideas to ponder….

Think about the minimum number of iterations required,-- ??-- before a company is, ready to Take Off!!".

'imo-- somewhat-- it is like a fruit cake—[:o)]--is it ‘ sufficiently baked’ ??--

Or another angle-- is one's capital being used to refine, rather than to reinvent, a 'up and coming' superior high return on capital business. ..

Put more plainly—a business to be superior, must give a superior return on capital employed ...….

Course correction & refinement are fundamental, imo, to assesment of good potential micro-caps-- , investing in the midst of a reinvention phase— is a poor investment, imo=-- on the hand… ?? —

Robbo -- explain more please??-- --- ie: Why so…?

.... Because it is 'inefficient capital allocation'-- that in the short term will not lead to value creation, and capital appreciation.

.... Like I said before re 'inflections& catalysts'-- and

my observation/example of Bill Gates; as an undisputed ‘entrepreneurial genius’--

Bill Gates/Microsoft-- is STILL-- is a function of context....

...>>-- In my view, some of my best ideas and identification of the most valuable innovations germinate from real world observations of Customer Need… in a context--; utilizing inflectino...(Phil Lynch principle)…

-Idea think meaningfully about the word--'enablement' and how it applies to Customer Demand and finding great stocks....


Thi thought/idea--re: 'enablement' (and the related concept of 'configurability')-- made me ...a lot of money --and still does.
...

- Idea...-- Focus much...

[djones]

quote:I am long term for sure becuase the concept of profits being taxed more than once has always been abhorent to me.

I always assumed the following, is this correct:

"According to the IRD, in New Zealand, as long as your "Intention" is to buy and hold the share for long term investment, you will not be classified as a "share trader" and you will not be taxed on "capital gains" portion of the increased value of your shares."

[djones]

Thanks Robbo, a very useful post, will read it through a few times over the next we while and come back with some comments or questions. Thanks.

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by djones


quote:I am long term for sure becuase the concept of profits being taxed more than once has always been abhorent to me.

I always assumed the following, is this correct:

"According to the IRD, in New Zealand, as long as your "Intention" is to buy and hold the share for long term investment, you will not be classified as a "share trader" and you will not be taxed on "capital gains" portion of the increased value of your shares."


Yes, but the onus of proof is on you, not IRD. If you have a history of short holding periods and frequent trades, then your pattern of behaviour may be considered in determining what your intentions were. The more $'s you make over more years, the more carefully you need to determine your position imo.

[OneUp]

The length of time you hold and investment, and the number of times you trade, is (strictly speaking) not relevant.

The law is that if you hold an investment for the dividend income, then you do not get taxed on the capital gains (you get taxed on the dividend income stream)

Anyone who buys a share with the intention to make a capital gain is liable for capital gains tax.

In my book every investor I have ever met is liable for capital gains tax in NZ, as they all buy shares to make capital gains!

The reality is that very few people pay it. The bigger you are, of course, the more likely the IRD is to take an interest. The number of times you trade is, as Lizard says, suggestive of intentions as per above.

[Lizard]

Robbo, that is a good post. I think the comment on behavioural advantage being less able to be arbitraged away is a particularly good point and one I will give more thought to.

I did have difficulty understanding what you meant by this part though:


quote:My personal view is that the minimum number of iterations may be hard to quantify, however, I have observed that the best time to meet a company is possibly 4- 6 -8 months.

By this I men, 4-6 -8 months of commitment, iteration, and market reality seems to be the optimal balance between opportunity and trial and error.


As to your comments relevant to competitive advantage, often because of personal experience and background, each individual has a comfort zone of company types that they understand. This seems to be the best place to start when seeking out micro-caps. My record has been best with companies whose business I can easily visualise.

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp
In my book every investor I have ever met is liable for capital gains tax in NZ, as they all buy shares to make capital gains!


An expectation of capital gain is not classed as an intention to sell for profit on capital gain though. Such a fine distinction. :D

[stephen]

Just (sadly) getting back to the ION thing, where I too got burned (but not too badly), one thing I've learned from that little adventure is to respect the maxim: rule one, never lose money.

This is achieved by our margin of safety, and in the ION case, the margin of safety was a large asset base that turned out to be worthless.

Since then I've been gradually changing my criteria to mark down companies with significant leverage, and try to value on current earnings or at best modest future growth. And this has definitely reduced the number of stinkers in my portfolio. It's also brought good gains as some of my picks paid bonus dividends or became takeover targets.

I've also become more skeptical of asset valuations. If assets form part of our backstop, then plant and equipment are always going to be worth less than we think. Conversely, land can be a source of hidden value.

As I read more about value investing it becomes clear that avoiding downside risk is the fundamental objective. Good returns on top of that are a happy side-effect of that approach. And tying that back to Robbo's injunction to consider psychological factors, we tend to dismiss objections and criticism once we've fastened onto the prospect of success. So it's very important to cultivate great cynicism and negativity in the beginning stages, rather than looking on the bright side and building castles in the air.

[Lizard]

That's interesting Stephen. My lesson from ION was all about reading ALL the parts of the cashflow statement carefully!

[stephen]

That's a good lesson too :)

But at the time, I remember thinking that there was tons of equity in the business to justify their borrowing. And there wasn't.

Maybe we should resurrect the ION thread for a post-mortem; there would probably be a lot to be learned out of that.

[tapman]

Quote:
"Idea think meaningfully about the word--'enablement' and how it applies to Customer Demand and finding great stocks....


Thi thought/idea--re: 'enablement' (and the related concept of 'configurability')-- made me ...a lot of money --and still does.
...

- Idea...-- Focus much.... (in quest to identify — which stocks) will brilliantly —

.... and be, at:-- ‘The Very Best of the Best’ — (Think Darwinian Evolution and Laws of Physics as possible idea launching pads)-- ...

at powerfully-- and sustainably-- (those two themes for me always go toether-- the sustainable word can be used next to intrinsic value-- as well-- and also C.A.--...

... Keep asking again and again and again-- and again--

.....What will...???-- powerfully and sust.... meet and fill Demand, accurately and offer The best best value Bar None.... to....

....sust.... meet Customer Need, have a Sustainable Barrier to Entry style-- and a sustain.... Competitive Advantage (which has a moat preventing easy imitation)-- to sustai..... and...
..... fulfill that need, being best, first and dominant.... to fill that niche of Customer need, and asking whether the Need/Demand is long term, seular, and likely top be for a reasonalbe time, a scarcity and paucity of critical need Supply to compete with your chosen Investment….
- There is 'money and gems' to be found in ... high demand commercial... niches ...btw... imo....

- Spend as much time, asking the ‘why’ question as possible….

-Then ask the 'whether or not... ' ....question…?

Idea--?? For 30 days-- ....Ask these questions.... incessantly...."

Hi Robbo, Great thread and real good feedback from everyone. I appreciate your effort and input.

From what I can understand from your comments that I've quoted, it seems that you try and think of customer/market needs and what new products/ideas a new or growing company is going to provide to satisfy those needs.
Then you look for a company that maybe is at the forefront of the particular field that may take advantage of this?
I'm probably simplifying this, but Engine comes to mind as an example.
So first of all you target a potential growth area and then do the sums so to speak.
So you aren't trolling through lists of possible co's until you're targeted a possible strong need in a market niche...?
Cheers

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by stephen
This is achieved by our margin of safety, and in the ION case, the margin of safety was a large asset base that turned out to be worthless.


Hi there Stephen,

I recall with ION a lot of punters were attracted by the shares trading at a large discount to book value.

But a balance sheet is not trying to put a market value on a business. Assets are recorded on a going concern basis, not a lquidation value. And in the information age, many companies have extremely valuable assets that do not show up in the balance sheet (e.g. brands like Coca-Cola, intellectual property e.g. software, top quality employees).

Land usually holds its value in liquidation. But plant & equipment (automative assembly in ION's case), which made up a large part of ION's balance sheet net assets, are very specific and are no good to anyone else and worth very little on a re-sale basis. I made the point on hotcopper at the time, the Friday before it went bust.

[djones]

One big question for me is "When to sell?". I note Robbo doesnt like stop loss's, so what doe everyone use for when to sell signs?

[davidrob]

Hi djones.

My first response; and after .... mega due diligence; is to look first -- for the:..... "will I want to psychologically HOLD 'signs'...."-- before worrying about when do I sell.

I donot want to be asking this 'sell question' very often... if at all possible....

I then ask -- (before i buy)-- How would this company weather a corection -and is the margin.of safety. 'in built' to weather a short term market shock...??

-- So therefore I try to ensure; that I am psychologically and cognitively & emotionally 'well suited' and comfortable with co's culture and mgt and the 10 year 'forecast'.... for the Business going forward...

-- Buffett says he buys; with a view -- that trading in the Stock Market could cease AND be closed down .....for a decade ....and he would, still be relaxed and content....

That ....is one of Buffett's criteria--....and LITMUS Tests....

Final point is this...

Say that, I have bought for example $80K of emitch for 3 cents, 56 cents , 9 cents and 11 cents .... with an average of 8.9 cents -- and it is now .90 cents....

One Option is to sell half-- and leave half there... .

It is not for me ............100% or nothing....;)

Second point is ....tax considerations...

If I buy a share in a listed company -- my capital gains tax on my realized profits --in Australia is 30%.--at company rates.

Final point.

Charles Munger (Warren Buffetts Partner)-- says on when to Sell....

:Munger says;

"...Only sell if; you have researched and mathematically assessed and discovered something 50% better--on the terms of risk as wellas return.. at least 50% on Both criteria-- and margin of safety-- and intrinsic undervaluedness and intrinsic value, per se..... in terms of future prospects compounding out for the next 5 years....

Second, Mr Munger says;

Ensure this is sincerely; a honest and rational decision and a prudnet business like decision and assessment -- re the 50% better... 'calibration'....

Ensure, it is not....Not ..... a short term ....'impulse' .... thing.

And be ruthlessly honest with yourself, and objective about this.... Munger counsels....

Too much 'turnover' Munger/Buffett say; is wealth destroying....

Repeat, Munger/Buffet, both ... say ... that.... flipping shares like pancakes; .... (share turnover)-- is both destrucitive in wealth accumulation terms, and also... of compounding capital accumulation...

Personally,...... d.jones ..... I agree with Mr Munger & Mr. Buffett.

All of abobe means of course, be careful 'BEFORE' you choose who You... deccide to get married to....

Divorce is.... they say, an expensive business...

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

[edison]

quote:Originally posted by davidrob

.....

Divorce is.... they say, an expensive business...

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)



Well stock trading is like divorce, the stock brokers must be the lawyer then! :D

[senor guacamole]

some very important points there guys,
i am learning so much from the threads on this site, often the asides contain some real gems and answers to questions i just havent been able ot find elsewhere ie the trader/investor split discussed above.
Robbo your post is excellent and very thoughtprovoking. confusing too, as most new concepts are when you first encounter them.
one point that really resonates deeply wiht me is that having the strength of conviction in your original deep analysis and sticking with it and avoiding the impulse..ie avoid selling out on the impulse of fear (read security) or buying in on the impulse of greed (read opportunity, fear of missing out). thats not to say you should be always updating and adding to your mental dossier of a comany youve invested in....

Personally i enjoy the gambling/speculative elements of the sharemarket (since i started up again a few months ago my sports betting has stopped. completely dead) and that is something i have to continue to make a concsious effort to 1.be aware of and 2. control. this ruthless supression of the gambing speculaitve impulse is absolutely critical.
try to educate yourself, spend more time analysing fewer prospects thouroughly before making decisions and resist that only to human impulse to have a dabble... epsecially when bored this can lead to the kind of needless turnover and following wealth destruction the lawyer/stockbrockers love!

"you cant kiss all the girls" - buffett, munger, lynch etc espouse this philosophy and it seems to work pretty well for them!

[KW]

Selling tips:
- stock chart shows company has entered a significant downtrend (eg. ABS.AX, refer Phaedrus info in ABS thread)
- financial fundamentals are declining (eg. falling eps, cashflow, margins, RoE, RoC and increasing debt, capital raisings, etc. A good example is AAT.AX)
- you think an industry is about to go through hard times so you rotate out of the sector (eg. property companies post boom, farming companies in a drought, export/import companies when the NZ$ is high/low, etc)
- a share price has stalled and you can identify other shares that present a better immediate opportunity, but dont have any cash on hand (although most times when I do this the share I sold eventually picks up and takes off again, so I try not to do it often)

[info]

I'm keen to buy some books on investing and would like some suggestions and comments form Robbo and others as to the best books to buy.

So far I have on my list:
* The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed - Benjamin Graham
* Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings - Philip A. Fisher
* One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market - Peter Lynch
* Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders - Jack D. Schwager

[ohmyme]

Well what a year this one has been, phenomenal returns generated and I am expecting even bigger things in 07. Already some interesting and explosive value news filtering out of the pub.

Its a pity that Robbo has decided to leave this site. As I said before, the opportunity cost for all readers is going to be massive in 07. Luckily there is plenty of other original and creative research ideas pouring out of this site to keep all the punters happy.

cheers and a Happy Christmas and Merry New Year to everyone.

ciao.

[BSA]

Yes a bit of a shame Ohmyme, he is a colourful and talented character.
The fact that he is so out there and confident with his selections draws attention to himself(good and bad attention)

Cheers and all the best.

[wayman51]

It probably goes without saying, and hopefully said many times already .... that Robbo's comments are very, very helpful to newer, wannabe traders such as myself (well, in particular myself).
It is such a shame there is negative response to such a commited presentation of reasons for particular stock picks. Whoi else is matching these??
Sorry to see you go Robbo !!!!!!!!!