PEM - Its all over, amazing destruction.

[whiteheron]

tricha

Re heading change to PEM thread

I suggest a change to something like:
PEM -- Perilya Where to from here ?
but that is over to you as it is your thread

What an incredibly frustrating company, the market has abandoned it and yet if a couple of things were to go in its favour I believe it could still come right (maybe just dreaming)

I am not buying or selling yet --- will hold until an outcome crystallises
Probably not a good strategy but the best lessons never come cheap
Losses to date on PEM have watered down other excellent gains and I suppose that they are not all winnable

Such a disappointment from a company that seemed to have so much going for it

All the best

[soulman]

Yes WH, hope in a stock is a deadly sins in investing, however, it happens to all of us including myself and even professional investor.

I wished PEM holder the very best but I see no respite in the SP short term.

NTA at $1.14, although debt has increase, hedging losses, poor outlook and a bad market.

Putting profits for the HER sale as normal course of business profits raised white flag because maybe PEM are trading stocks with their cash instead of retiring the $24 mil debt. The profits should be classified as one-off. Otherwise PEM profits would have been negative for this half.

[winner69]

The $1 mark held this morning ..... close call though

[soulman]

PEM might be in serious trouble. Maybe the mine are running at a loss and the only thing holding this coy up is their net cash of roughly 55 cents PS. What a slider and no ends in sight.

[tricha]

But I would probably have titled in PEM - Perilya in Lead & Zinc hell

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.gif Re: Name change -
Hi Vince

I have not worked out how to change a thread title ?

Anyway can you please change this one.

PEM -Perilya where to from here ?

Regards Tony

Quote:
Originally Posted by Admin
Hi Tony,

I've changed them.... I'll try a patch which should allow you to change them later on tonight hopefully. I'll keep you updated..

Vince

Quote:
Originally Posted by tricha
Hi Admin

Is there any way we can go back to changing thread titles we start, just a lot of threads are dynamic.

.................................................. ......................

Please change

Recession in the USA - The flow on effect and where to protect ones self ?

SuperCycle - put it on hold.

Cheers Tony

[whiteheron]

Thanks tricha

What you change PEMs tiread title is your choice entirely
With the way things have gone the title could well change by the day !

Breaking my guidelines has cost me heaps and I must not do it again
More discipline is going to be essential
Why did I buy more of a loser and increase my exposure to it when there are so many other good buys out there ??
Conclusion --- what a dumbass of a thing to do

[tricha]

Vince does not seem to be much help.



http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.gif Re: Name change -



Try it now on one of the threads you started...

Quote:
Originally Posted by tricha
Quote:
Originally Posted by tricha
Hi Vince

I just thought I would repost it, just in case u missed it.

Cheers Tony

Quote:
Originally Posted by tricha
Hi Vince

I have not worked out how to change a thread title ?

Anyway can you please change this one.

PEM -Perilya where to from here ?

Regards Tony

[steve fleming]

Today from Huntleys:

"The result emphasises more than ever that PEM needs to merge its Broken Hill operations with CBH Resources (CBH) as soon as possible in order to diversify ore supply and access cost savings from increased concentrator throughput. CBH’s Rasp mine sits in between the Southern Operations and the North Mine. PEM could immediately access high grade ore at the boundary of the Southern Operations from its own decline."

PEM's only hope, short term.

About time.

Perilya, CBH Resources agree all-scrip merger

AFTER weeks of negotiations, the zinc miners Perilya and CBH Resources have finally agreed on a merger that would unite all of the mining assets in Broken Hill for the first time in more than 100 years.
The all-scrip deal, which could be worth about $500 million based on the miners' market values, is expected to be announced to the market on Wednesday next week after the companies finalise the legal documentation and other details over the long weekend.
The executive chairman of Perilya, Patrick O'Connor, is expected to emerge as chairman of the merged group, with CBH's chief executive, Stephen Dennis, as the managing director. Perilya's chief executive, Len Jubber, is not expected to continue with the combined entity.
Analysts have said a tie-up between the miners made sense because Perilya had an under-utilised concentrator in Broken Hill that could be filled by material from CBH's neighbouring Rasp mine, which is under development. It is believed they could save more than $200 million by combining the operations.
Perilya and CBH, which have both recently undertaken strategic reviews, last month admitted they were in merger discussions. At the time they were discussing a transaction which would see Perilya make an all-scrip bid for CBH at a premium to the target's share price. Perilya then had a slightly higher market value than CBH.
But over the past month - in part because investors moved out of Perilya and into CBH shares based on the expected make-up of the deal - Perilya shares have been battered. Before the companies entered trading halts yesterday, Perilya had a market value of $197 million, while CBH was worth $291 million.
It is understood the deal struck yesterday is based more on the historical relative valuations of the companies than on the current trading ratio.
Perilya shares last traded at $1, while CBH traded at 34.5c, which is close to a 1-for-3 ratio. That pales in comparison with the 1-to-7.5 trading ratio last September.
The merged group would have $290 million of cash available for development projects - and acquisitions - based on their financial statements for the half-year ended December 31. Both are looking to diversify their production bases since the zinc price has fallen steeply during the past year.
Perilya last month said the resource at its Mount Oxide copper project in Queensland had increased to 203,000 tonnes of contained metal. It expects to start a feasibility study on the project early next year.
CBH is looking to develop the $213 million Panorama zinc-copper project in Western Australia, to add to production from its Endeavor mine near Cobar and its Rasp development. It expects to start construction at Panorama in July and production in September next year.



http://business.smh.com.au/perilya-cbh-resources-agree-allscrip-merger/20080320-20r4.html

[steve fleming]

About time.

Perilya, CBH Resources agree all-scrip merger

It is understood the deal struck yesterday is based more on the historical relative valuations of the companies than on the current trading ratio.
Perilya shares last traded at $1, while CBH traded at 34.5c, which is close to a 1-for-3 ratio. That pales in comparison with the 1-to-7.5 trading ratio last September.



I see that the merger ratio is giong to be based on historical valuations, which is odd, but makes sense given the concerted effort to sell down PEM recently.

PEM has been in the top 5 ASX stocks shorted since the initial CBH/PEM annoucement a few weeks back - though PEM only have themselves to blame, they were stupid not to enforce a trading halt whilst discussions regarding the merger ratio were ongoing.

[FarmerGeorge]

As a holder of CBH I'm glad to see we might start to get a bit of value out of this but frankly I think 1 for 3 is still pretty generous yo you PEM holders! ;) But I suppose I better not complain too loudly I'm going to be one of you soon!

[FarmerGeorge]

I'm surprised there isn't more talk here about the merger, particularly given the notion that, although Perilya is the 'acquirer', CBH shareholders will end up with 59% of the merged group. Any thoughts?

[AMR]

Why is this still on my watchlist? Probably because I'm watching and waiting for a reversal...but it's still heading down. It closed below $1 today, which is a crucial support level.

[STRAT]

Why is this still on my watchlist? Probably because I'm watching and waiting for a reversal...but it's still heading down. It closed below $1 today, which is a crucial support level.LOL AMR, was wondering the same here. Surely it has to come right sooner or later. Might be hard and fast:eek:

Duncan, you still holding PEM?

[countryboy]

been holding from $3.68...ouch I will now see the merger through and hope the new board sets a new direction.Pem management have proven to be indecisive knowing the Bh mine Southern end was into low grades and the company needed a new resource. They should have had the North deeps ready to rock and roll in jan 08 but fiddle farted around,will we wont we etc

potosi and flying doctor should keep things moving until rasp opens and then the north deeps. 2010 should be good !

[COLIN]

Duncan, you still holding PEM?

Duncan is holding nothing - except his dignity. Or so he tells us.

[STRAT]

Duncan is holding nothing - except his dignity. Or so he tells us.Yeah Colin but sometimes when Macca says "Im holding nothing" he forgets to say "in my trading account" :D So perhaps I should have asked.

Duncan, You holding any PEM in your investment account?

[duncan macgregor]

Yeah Colin but sometimes when Macca says "Im holding nothing" he forgets to say "in my trading account" :D So perhaps I should have asked.

Duncan, You holding any PEM in your investment account? STRAT My investment account i doubled my money took my initial investment out and closed my eyes and let the other half run. You might not beleave this, but i make a point of not looking at the prices of the four companies. AGM,SMY,IGO,MCR.All bought in early JAN 2007. My trading account is sitting in the bank collecting interest plus exchange rate gain of about 11% since i headed to Aussie with my investments. Pem was a mistake of mine thank god for a selling strategy when you get it wrong. My trading account will stay out the market its not much fun, but i expect the market to keep downtrending for 2008 with a crash at the end of it. Macdunk

[STRAT]

STRAT My investment account i doubled my money took my initial investment out and closed my eyes and let the other half run. You might not beleave this, but i make a point of not looking at the prices of the four companies. AGM,SMY,IGO,MCR.All bought in early JAN 2007. My trading account is sitting in the bank collecting interest plus exchange rate gain of about 11% since i headed to Aussie with my investments. Pem was a mistake of mine thank god for a selling strategy when you get it wrong. My trading account will stay out the market its not much fun, but i expect the market to keep downtrending for 2008 with a crash at the end of it. Macdunk
Hi Duncan,
RE holding PEM, I will take that as a definite no but Duncan I have to ask How can you hold 4 stocks in your investment account and make a point of not looking at their price especially if you expect the market to crash? That puts you on the same page as the buy and hold brigade you so love to wind up. Sorry mate but that seems more dangerous to me than the high risk stocks I choose. I dont get it. By taking half out and letting the rest run blind somehow indicates to me that you see your profit to have a lower value than your initial stake. Surely a dollar is a dollar and profit must be taken off the table to ensure going forward :confused:
Another thing Im having trouble grasping is why you are letting opportunities pass by ( MXR is a case in point ) if you have funds in the market already sitting in a ship with no rudder.

[duncan macgregor]

STRAT, I look on it as i got them for nothing with them all trading well above buy price. I am only interested in trading when the market comes right. You can tell me when you update our little competition how much my AGM is worth. I paid 59c i think in JAN 2007.
You know how much i made with trading that one last year so why not leave my freebies to run their course?. I am quite content to watch you pick the eyes out of a downtrending market With my money safely tucked up fast asleep with the bears hybernating this cold economic winter. Macdunk

[STRAT]

STRAT, I look on it as i got them for nothing with them all trading well above buy price. I am only interested in trading when the market comes right. You can tell me when you update our little competition how much my AGM is worth. I paid 59c i think in JAN 2007.
You know how much i made with trading that one last year so why not leave my freebies to run their course?. I am quite content to watch you pick the eyes out of a downtrending market With my money safely tucked up fast asleep with the bears hybernating this cold economic winter. MacdunkOK Duncan I will bite:D
First up you didnt get them for nothing. You have invested considerable time and effort in becoming a trader so putting your winnings on the line and dismissing them as freebies makes no sense. Preservation of capital is paramount and that includes profit.

This is as you point out a somewhat dangerous market so how can you stay invested if you deem it too dangerous to trade in. Surely if its too dangerous to make a two to four week trade then going long is nothing short of suicidal.

Our wee comp. I have neither the education or the talent for going long but I join in these things for fun however if we break it down with the exception of AGM we are all doin pretty bad:D

So lets look at AGM. Im sure you wont say you chose AGM cause you saw that left of field announcement coming so I guess we could say you lucked out there but the real question is why would you still be holding? As a trader and knowing the SP as been static since then surely the money would in fact have been better in the bank or played on :DMXR:D, one of your pics in the ASX comp I believe.;)

You say "Picking the eyes out of a down trending market"
LOL are you calling me a vulture??:eek:

The way I see it a trade is a trade and the only things that matter are that the price goes up between buying and selling and the time it takes to go up. I know it doesnt happen very often and a lot of luck is involved but as you often remind me you made 100% last year surely you would be tickled pink to do the same in a month or two esspecially if they turn out to be the only good months in the whole year?

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PEM510.gif

The most poignant comments are the first and last.....

[Mick100]

thanks phaedrus

that's the best laugh I'v had this month

good to see one of macdunks trades fully documented

After a run like that I can understand why he's is now reluctant to redeploy funds into the sharemarket.

[tricha]

thanks phaedrus

that's the best laugh I'v had this month

good to see one of macdunks trades fully documented

After a run like that I can understand why he's is now reluctant to redeploy funds into the sharemarket.

Well done Phaedrus, now focus on this issue, what are the metal trends saying at the moment :confused:
The only metal I hold is that dog GGY and thats on short notice. Must have rocks in my head :rolleyes:






http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-lead-6m-Large.gif

[Bobbyvee]

Well IMO Tricha you should be holding Terramin

[Huang Chung]

Well done Phaedrus, now focus on this issue, what are the metal trends saying at the moment :confused:
The only metal I hold is that dog GGY and thats on short notice. Must have rocks in my head :rolleyes:



T....there are metals, and there are metals...eg zinc is well down, but copper, tungsten, iron ore are at or near their highs. You have metals stocks that are underperforming (such as PEM) and ones that are doing very very well, (such as our old favourite, Western Areas)....neither of these examples have a energy exposure, such as coal or uranium.

Also, there are energy stocks and there are energy stocks....Woodside has done very well of late, whilst a lot of junior and mid-sized oilers have either done nothing or gone backwards.

The commodity that you're exposed to is important, but not the be all and end all. Nice profits can be made in less fashionable areas of the market, and exposure to hot sectors is no guarantee of success.

[tricha]

Well IMO Tricha you should be holding Terramin

A wee bit late for that, for me Bobbyvee , a bit like Huangs PDZ, a roller coaster, at least your roller coasters got back to the top, unlike a lot of unloved ones.

I'm sticking to an uptrending, finite resource, something that once gone, is gone forever.

I suspect tomorrow will be a bad day for metal stocks and an average day for oilers, the world has previously run on cheap energy, we are entering a paradigm shift.

Hold AZA, COE, NWE, NZO, OEL, VPE (for O & G ) and GGY ( for rocks in my head)

Sold AWE on Friday and bought more NZO after having a good read of their Interium Report.

Happy hunting :)

[Huang Chung]

What happened to your Citigold holdings T?.....you seemed keen as mustard on CTO.

[tricha]

What happened to your Citigold holdings T?.....you seemed keen as mustard on CTO.

Yes I was as keen as mustard Huang, quarterly was a big disapointment, still potential plus, a bit like ADY, but there are to many un-answerable questions.:confused::confused::confused::confused:

I see PDZ is on a roll, got some major attention, Becoming a substantial holder from AMP (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=406559)

Something happenning with GGY as well, yep still looking for the next MCR, Otto for me and PDZ for u.

Happy hunting :)

[underDOG]

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PEM510.gif

The most poignant comments are the first and last.....


nothing going on with PEM still


94.5c

I wonder when it will turn around if ever?

anyone got some updated numbers on profits, cashflow?

[absolut-advance]

Solid down trend with compounding momentum in place.

Look for a break of the 30-60 EMA 's

AA


nothing going on with PEM still


94.5c

I wonder when it will turn around if ever?

anyone got some updated numbers on profits, cashflow?

[Corporate]

The one year chart for PEM is pretty horrific! Looks like further downside to come

[underDOG]

yep, seems to be just limping down about 1c a day lately

[Shrewd Crude]

Ive been watching this stock for quite awhile now...
Is anyone buying?
looked like a good announcement today...
:cool:
.^sc

[drillfix]

MY GOD,

What is the go with this stock, text book definition of downward trend...lol

Is there a quick on its story?

[whiteheron]

This company is so perplexing

A great announcement and the price goes down --- the market obviously has no confidence in PEM whatsoever

I dont know what will ignite the share price !!!!!!!

Fundamentally the company seems sound but the price of zinc and lead are presently at very low levels

I wish that I could see 6 to 12 months into the future

[AMR]

Have you heard the song "Boulevard of broken dreams"? It was written by a couple of PEM shareholders.

Jokes aside, is that deposit even economical given the current price of zinc?

I would keep an eye of the 50 day EMA and the resistance at $1. There is also a strong downtrend going on in the OBV graph. A break of either would be a buy signal in my books.

[absolut-advance]

Terrible, to enter would be suicide until a clear reversal of trend.

Candle Signal: A hammer with a tall shadow indicating strong resistance and more pain for holders.

AA


This company is so perplexing

A great announcement and the price goes down --- the market obviously has no confidence in PEM whatsoever

I dont know what will ignite the share price !!!!!!!

Fundamentally the company seems sound but the price of zinc and lead are presently at very low levels

I wish that I could see 6 to 12 months into the future

[absolut-advance]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxfpMGLMZ7Y



Have you heard the song "Boulevard of broken dreams"? It was written by a couple of PEM shareholders.

Jokes aside, is that deposit even economical given the current price of zinc?

I would keep an eye of the 50 day EMA and the resistance at $1. There is also a strong downtrend going on in the OBV graph. A break of either would be a buy signal in my books.

[absolut-advance]

This Boulevard of broken dreams version

is more AMR's Style.... lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5td5tkSnBA


just pulling your tits

AA


....actually its kinda catchy lol.... love the lyrics too... lol

[soulman]

Just wonder now if the merger with CBH will go ahead.

This PEM chart looks sick. It's like they are invloved in the sub-prime funding crisis issue here but instead, the hot mining sector. How ironic a miner with production are sinking like this. Obviously, profit will fall this year and CBH not doing too good either.

3 for 1 swap with CBH spinning off non-core asset. Will stay out of this marriage party.

[STRAT]

It will turn I suspect sometime. Worth keeping an eye on I think.

[tricha]

It will turn I suspect sometime. Worth keeping an eye on I think.

Oversupply puts zinc under pressure



Jamie Freed
June 9, 2008
Page 1 of 2

STEELMAKING materials such as iron ore, coking coal and manganese have hit the headlines this year in light of record prices due to a boom in demand from the industrialising economies of China and India.
What has received less attention is the fall in the price of other steelmaking materials - notably zinc and nickel.
Zinc is a key ingredient in galvanised steel that helps limit rust and corrosion. Galvanised steel is used in many high-demand products, such as roofing, handrails, consumer appliances, metal pails and automotive body parts.
Despite the high demand for steel, the zinc price has more than halved in the past year because the commodity is one of those rare metals in oversupply.
Although China imports huge amounts of iron ore and alumina to make up for its lack of domestic supply, it is a net exporter of zinc. Supply is also expanding elsewhere in the world, and the International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that production of refined zinc metal will rise by 6.4 per cent this year.
Despite the gloomy picture - and the recent fall in the zinc price below $US1 a pound for the first time in three years - the world's largest zinc producers such as Xstrata, Teck Cominco and Zinifex are confident prices will bounce back.
Merrill Lynch analysts agreed. They say the current zinc price is low enough to start the closure of high-cost mines and to delay the financing and start-up of new mines. In the meantime, Goldman Sachs JBWere have predicted that the high-cost Broken Hill miner Perilya will swing to a loss.
The Drum has examined some Australian zinc miners whose production costs are low enough for them to emerge as winners.
Low-cost advantage


Kagara, formerly Kagara Zinc, has stripped the zinc from its name since it also produces copper and is exploring for nickel. But it still mines zinc in Queensland, and its largest project, Admiral Bay, is a zinc prospect in Western Australia.
Despite lowering its 2008 price zinc forecast from $US1.15 a pound to US99c a pound, Goldman Sachs JBWere only cut 2 per cent off its estimate of Kagara's earnings. Kagara's advantage is that it is a low-cost zinc producer, with cash costs of US57c a pound including byproducts at its Mount Garnet operation. It will next year start producing 50,000 tonnes of zinc and 8000 tonnes of copper a year from its Mungana project, with cash costs of US30c a pound including byproduct credits. Therefore, it would take an extremely low zinc price for its operations to become unprofitable.

Meanwhile, Kagara is continuing to explore at Admiral Bay, a giant former Rio Tinto project. Kagara recently said it would consider sinking an exploration shaft on the site to cut the cost of drilling the deep deposit, but the first resource is still expected later this month.
Long-term plan


Not everything has gone to plan so far for the WA zinc-copper miner Jabiru Metals at its Jaguar mine. The initial recoveries from the plant were in the 50 per cent range rather than the 75 per cent range forecast in the feasibility study, leading to a delay in the mine becoming cash-flow positive. But since March Jabiru has rectified the situation and is able to focus on extending the five-year life of the mine, which should produce 68,000 tonnes of zinc and 32,000 tonnes of copper concentrate next year.
Jabiru recently raised $52 million through an entitlements issue, and its largest shareholder, Palmary, took up its full rights to 27 per cent of the shares. Palmary is the Ukrainian group that took over Consolidated Minerals last year.
The funding will help Jabiru prove up more resources at Jaguar and to advance with its Stockman project in Victoria. Jabiru expects to release a resource estimate at Stockman early next year, with the first production in 2011. Patersons Securities forecasts Jabiru will have zinc cash costs of US73c a pound this year, falling to negative US13c a pound next year due to the extensive copper and silver credits.
Growth potential


Like Jabiru, Terramin Australia recently asked shareholders to help it fund growth prospects. Funds from a $16.5 million share purchase plan will be put toward a second zinc exploration prospect in Algeria. Unlike Kagara and Jabiru, Terramin is not yet in production. But it is definitely not far off. The plant at its $70 million Angas mine in South Australia starts progressive commissioning this month, with the first concentrate to be shipped in August.
At full production, Angas will produce 30,000 tonnes of zinc a year and 12,000 tonnes of lead, with some added gold, silver and copper credits. That will give it a zinc cash cost of just US20c to US30c, the lowest quartile of global cash costs, making it robust in any zinc market.
But the main game for Terramin is its big Tala Hamza project in Algeria. Tala Hamza is interesting enough to have attracted the attention of Canada's Lundin Mining, which has emerged on the Terramin register with a 4 per cent stake.
Still, despite the corporate interest, the Terramin executive chairman, Kevin Moriarty, says he has no plans to sell out anytime soon.
jfreed@smh.com.au (jfreed@smh.com.au)

[Shrewd Crude]

Wow Wow Wow...
$5 to almost 50cents...
Im pretty sure this is mackdunks sharetrader ASX comp pick...
what an amazing chart...
:cool:
.^sc

[AMR]

It's an accelerating downtrend too! Even on a log scale the trendline is getting steeper and steeper. I feel sorry for the poor fellow who jumped to the front of the opening price with a bid of 100 this morning.

Definitely worth a look at Mt Oxide, those are copper deposits and not zinc. When does that get underway?

[Indy kiwi]

PEM - is this the new way to spell "freefall"?

[suntboy]

Bought my first lot at $2
then more at $1
then low and behold more at .60
man in a few weeks I might be buyin at .30
WTF!!
at least what i first bought has been averaged way down so dont look to bad now

I noticed Macquarrie kept their rating as neutral yesterday and raised CBH
saying the zinc price has basically bottomed and should start heading up to a high in 2013

Obviously met with disdain from the masses.

[Phaedrus]

....at least what I first bought has been averaged way down so dont look too bad now
You reckon it was worthwhile averaging down because it improved the "look" of your portfolio? I would have thought that this debacle would have taught you NOT to average down!

Here (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=YKd4WBeikpQC&pg=PA201&lpg=PA201&dq=never+average+down&source=web&ots=ZU1W-nzki3&sig=ZQx6vS5WpCOQWLaDURuyZFMiZ_k&hl=en#PPA201,M1) is someone elses opinion on averaging down.

Another opinion here. (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=8AG-QVN8IxsC&pg=PA29&lpg=PA29&dq=never+average+down&source=web&ots=zw3kZ-HEEd&sig=5gI7PhBVp7UpbDzptpEhMXqxvPo&hl=en)

And another. (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=Xrt1YFVOcAEC&pg=PA314&lpg=PA314&dq=never+average+down&source=web&ots=p0W52E-Pu5&sig=pCsgf5HwfddBZEvZLvk9mnVJapc&hl=en)

Here (http://spahiu.wordpress.com/2006/05/27/the-not-so-simple/) is a set of rules that you might find useful. Pay particular attention to the first 2!

Too many rules for you? Try just this one :-

Never buy any stock that is in a downtrend.

[macduffy]

Oh dear, suntboy!
I had my first experience with averaging down in the 60's ( the 1960's that is ) with an Aussie company called Reid Murray. Ended up losing most of what I'd "invested" as the company went broke.
Wouldn't say I've never averaged down since but these days I'm more inclined to sell and go on to something else. For mining and oil and gas shares I try to discipline myself with a stop loss system.

Good luck with PEM.

:)

[suntboy]

Jeez thanks guys
I tryin to take a positive out of a horrible situation and now Im feelin like a LEAD or ZINC balloon LOL

[suntboy]

My rationale is this:
If they had hung around $2 and fluctuated a little I would own only x amount waiting for them to reach $3 in the next 10 odd years ( which I would like to think they would)
Since then the amounts I have been able to accumulate still with the notion they will reach $3 within 10 years makes it all worthwhile in my opinion(which to you boffins I know is very shallow)

Welcome To Suntland

[winner69]

Making heaps today though Suntboy .... aren't you a lot richer than you were yesterday ... well done

[suntboy]

Thankyou winner I would like to think there is a method in my madness
plus I am patient

[suntboy]

You reckon it was worthwhile averaging down because it improved the "look" of your portfolio? I would have thought that this debacle would have taught you NOT to average down!

Here (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=YKd4WBeikpQC&pg=PA201&lpg=PA201&dq=never+average+down&source=web&ots=ZU1W-nzki3&sig=ZQx6vS5WpCOQWLaDURuyZFMiZ_k&hl=en#PPA201,M1) is someone elses opinion on averaging down.

Another opinion here. (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=8AG-QVN8IxsC&pg=PA29&lpg=PA29&dq=never+average+down&source=web&ots=zw3kZ-HEEd&sig=5gI7PhBVp7UpbDzptpEhMXqxvPo&hl=en)

And another. (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=Xrt1YFVOcAEC&pg=PA314&lpg=PA314&dq=never+average+down&source=web&ots=p0W52E-Pu5&sig=pCsgf5HwfddBZEvZLvk9mnVJapc&hl=en)

Here (http://spahiu.wordpress.com/2006/05/27/the-not-so-simple/) is a set of rules that you might find useful. Pay particular attention to the first 2!

Too many rules for you? Try just this one :-

Never buy any stock that is in a downtrend.

Managed to read the articles today and sorry to say they are the normal text book crock I expected
!st one calls me horrible
2nd tells me I wont admit I am wrong
Last one is written by a Boffin who admits to "often just barely survived"

As stated I bought at $2 hoping they would go to $3 in the next ten years and what has happened in the last few months has not changed my view

all it has done has increased my holdings from 5000 shares to 31666 shares
decreased my av from $2 to $1.05
Making 50% profit much more accessable
But will still hold for the $3 I firmly believe will occur in the next ten years

Welcome to Suntland

[underDOG]

Managed to read the articles today and sorry to say they are the normal text book crock I expected
!st one calls me horrible
2nd tells me I wont admit I am wrong
Last one is written by a Boffin who admits to "often just barely survived"

As stated I bought at $2 hoping they would go to $3 in the next ten years and what has happened in the last few months has not changed my view

all it has done has increased my holdings from 5000 shares to 31666 shares
decreased my av from $2 to $1.05
Making 50% profit much more accessable
But will still hold for the $3 I firmly believe will occur in the next ten years

Welcome to Suntland


look mate, just think of it this way
if there werent any Suntboys there would be no Ps

and TAs usually get it right because they tell you AFTER you did what you did

their record telling you before is not as convincing;)

[underDOG]

and before I get shot down, a quick point

TAs the level of Macdunk vs Phaedrus is not the comparison of "TAs" as such I am getting at

Macdunk still seems to hold from $3 too?? and "hoped" for a bounce at $2 from what I can gather from this woeful thread



Heavy stuff this Lead and Zinc

[absolut-advance]

SuntBoy,

I stand by what Phaedrus is saying, he is giving you good sound advice for the benefit of you and those here.

I started off learning to be a fundamental Investor,

It appears to be the first step most of us have to take before moving forward,

I used the method of averaging down, and buying into down trends because I believed company fundamentals were everything.

It destroyed my portfolio costed me more than I ever imagined, worst still I had borrowed for leverage.

I have seen too many Great Companies fall in share price over very very very long periods whist their earnings have been increasing.

Just because they are out of favour.


Like you say you might do very well if you can hold for 10 years, I know personally Im unlikely to hold anything for longer than 24 months.

Who's to say PEM will still be around in 10 years?

Ive totally lost all faith in buying based on fundamentals, because investing in shares is not what it may first seem.

basically these Days I don't trade shares....

I don't trade companies

I trade Market Sentiment, I go where the moneys flowing and I leave when i notice it slowing down.



AA


Managed to read the articles today and sorry to say they are the normal text book crock I expected
!st one calls me horrible
2nd tells me I wont admit I am wrong
Last one is written by a Boffin who admits to "often just barely survived"

As stated I bought at $2 hoping they would go to $3 in the next ten years and what has happened in the last few months has not changed my view

all it has done has increased my holdings from 5000 shares to 31666 shares
decreased my av from $2 to $1.05
Making 50% profit much more accessable
But will still hold for the $3 I firmly believe will occur in the next ten years

Welcome to Suntland

[AMR]

I hope you're not planning on buying at the 3.50 mark...worst possible price to buy. It came out of a topping pattern a while back. The OBV plot merely confirms what we know - big money bailing out.

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/7919/pemau7.png

Way back in December, TA gave a sell signal at 3.50...

[STRAT]

Managed to read the articles today and sorry to say they are the normal text book crock I expected
!st one calls me horrible
2nd tells me I wont admit I am wrong
Last one is written by a Boffin who admits to "often just barely survived"

As stated I bought at $2 hoping they would go to $3 in the next ten years and what has happened in the last few months has not changed my view

all it has done has increased my holdings from 5000 shares to 31666 shares
decreased my av from $2 to $1.05
Making 50% profit much more accessable
But will still hold for the $3 I firmly believe will occur in the next ten years

Welcome to SuntlandHi Suntboy,
LOL Nobody likes to be called names but from one newbie to another if you take any advice you get from W69 and Phaedrus on board you will be doing yourself a good turn. Hanging around here for a few years you get to now know who the smart cookies are and often as not they are the ones who make the least amount of noise

You could get 50% in ten years from a bank deposit stress free as long as its not a US bank of course. Its hard enough to know how a stock will perform next month let alone in 10 years.

[macduffy]

Hi suntboy.
Good advice from strat!

Yes, there's far too many "rules" in investing and sometimes you have to go with your gut feelings. But if there's one thing I've learnt over more years than I care to say, and I've had to keep re-learning it! - is that if you must average down, improve the odds in your favour by waiting until the downtrend turns around. You will almost certainly miss out on buying at the bottom - virtually no-one does anyway - but you'll also avoid the risk of seeing your stake halve and halve again.
An example. I've been watching FBU since it was up at $13 odd about 12 months ago. A great business, IMO, but yesterday it closed at $6-72. So I'm still watching it!

Cheers

:)

[underDOG]

Hi suntboy.
is that if you must average down, improve the odds in your favour by waiting until the downtrend turns around.
:)


YES, very good advice.


PEM will turn, but we cant say when because it is still downtrending even after the good bounce

[suntboy]

Geez not even a debate
All against my actions
Been workin hard lately and gettin ready for another 10k investment ,
price has risen last 2 days , should I buy more (is that averaging up? )
You say wait till the turn , what constitutes a turn ? x amount or 20 days with out a drop
Me I am comfortable with PER (Im hoping not to hold for 10 years)
I could always take heed of the ramping and buy URA LOL

Welcome to Suntland

[suntboy]

You know I meant PEM

[underDOG]

Geez not even a debate
All against my actions
Been workin hard lately and gettin ready for another 10k investment ,
price has risen last 2 days , should I buy more (is that averaging up? )
You say wait till the turn , what constitutes a turn ? x amount or 20 days with out a drop
Me I am comfortable with PER (Im hoping not to hold for 10 years)
I could always take heed of the ramping and buy URA LOL

Welcome to Suntland

no, it is still averaging down since PEM have been in an accelarating downtrend and are still trading under downtrend lines

just a rough look shows it wont be broken until 80c right now.
80c looks like support/resistance (a nice round number as Pheadrus says)

but that price will lower as time moves on, perhaps PEM will consolidate first like many stocks that have been in long downtrends

that would give an investor time to enter on the trendline break with more money

consolidations can last 3-6 months from my experience.



My take is there is no rush for you to jump in again yet.

[Huang Chung]

no, it is still averaging down since PEM have been in an accelarating downtrend and are still trading under downtrend lines

just a rough look shows it wont be broken until 80c right now.
80c looks like support/resistance (a nice round number as Pheadrus says)

but that price will lower as time moves on, perhaps PEM will consolidate first like many stocks that have been in long downtrends

that would give an investor time to enter on the trendline break with more money

consolidations can last 3-6 months from my experience.



My take is there is no rush for you to jump in again yet.

U out there Countryboy? You seem to be well positioned in respect of the prevailing mood at Broken Hill.

My feeling is it is safer to stay clear of this stock.

[countryboy]

Hmm not sure I'll wade into the investment strategy dicussion except for:

i have averaged down, i do believe in company fundamentals and market sentiment rules PEM...i sold out

Pem is still puting on new labour and no talk of any of us losing our jobs,just talk of how much a pay rise we get after CBH get into mangement.

Broken Hill is like Mt Isa and Kalgoolie plenty of riches to be found if you get your ecomomies of scale right and find the ore body

The south end of Broken Hill has a private company sitting on a good find and the recent announcements are towards that end of town.What annoys us is that every Tom ,dick and harry new about this but PEM sat on their hands and lost the strategic initiative to grow the company.

I am now thinking of CBH and not PEM and looking for a break in the trend of this fundamentally sound company!...make sense:rolleyes:

[Huang Chung]

Hmm not sure I'll wade into the investment strategy dicussion except for:

i have averaged down, i do believe in company fundamentals and market sentiment rules PEM...i sold out

Pem is still puting on new labour and no talk of any of us losing our jobs,just talk of how much a pay rise we get after CBH get into mangement.

Broken Hill is like Mt Isa and Kalgoolie plenty of riches to be found if you get your ecomomies of scale right and find the ore body

The south end of Broken Hill has a private company sitting on a good find and the recent announcements are towards that end of town.What annoys us is that every Tom ,dick and harry new about this but PEM sat on their hands and lost the strategic initiative to grow the company.

I am now thinking of CBH and not PEM and looking for a break in the trend of this fundamentally sound company!...make sense:rolleyes:

Thanks for the update Countryboy..... the picture at Broken Hill must be more upbeat than I imagined.

Best of luck in your pay negotiations. ;)

[Shrewd Crude]

Despite the high demand for steel, the zinc price has more than halved in the past year because the commodity is one of those rare metals in oversupply.
Although China imports huge amounts of iron ore and alumina to make up for its lack of domestic supply, it is a net exporter of zinc. Supply is also expanding elsewhere in the world, and the International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that production of refined zinc metal will rise by 6.4 per cent this year.
Despite the gloomy picture - and the recent fall in the zinc price below $US1 a pound for the first time in three years - the world's largest zinc producers such as Xstrata, Teck Cominco and Zinifex are confident prices will bounce back.
Merrill Lynch analysts agreed. They say the current zinc price is low enough to start the closure of high-cost mines and to delay the financing and start-up of new mines. In the meantime, Goldman Sachs JBWere have predicted that the high-cost Broken Hill miner Perilya will swing to a loss.


I have spoken to someone, (in the industry) who reckons in 1 to 1.5 years, that the Zinc Sector will take off just like The Uranium boom... and just like the Coal Seam Gas Boom... He said to start thinking about Zinc stocks as prices will stop falling and start rising...

Any thoughts? im a turkey at these sorts of plays...
Id seriously like to hear mackdunks views, and other views on a Zinc boom in 1-2 years... I trust my source...
Would PEM not be the best positioned for a Zinc Boom...?
thanks in advance....
:cool:
.^sc

[macduffy]

I'm a zinc turkey also but on that basis Zinifex should be worth a look. Hit by low zinc price but sitting on big pile of cash and due to merge with Oxiana if shareholders (ZFX)approve this month. Can't see them turning down the merger given the state of the zinc market.
The merged company - a substantial player in gold, copper and zinc - looks attractive to me.

Disc: Hold OXR

;)

[Huang Chung]

I have spoken to someone, (in the industry) who reckons in 1 to 1.5 years, that the Zinc Sector will take off just like The Uranium boom... and just like the Coal Seam Gas Boom... He said to start thinking about Zinc stocks as prices will stop falling and start rising...

Any thoughts? im a turkey at these sorts of plays...
Id seriously like to hear mackdunks views, and other views on a Zinc boom in 1-2 years... I trust my source...
Would PEM not be the best positioned for a Zinc Boom...?
thanks in advance....
:cool:
.^sc

I copied this from another thread.....posted in April.....

Extracted from Bobbyvee's latest post on the Terramin thread. Comments from Kevin Moriarty, Terramin's Chairman.....

I think it appropriate to comment on zinc pricing and the future for lead and zinc. Currently analysts are somewhat bearish about zinc prices, although it should be noted that their idea of a low price is still several times higher than some years ago. Supposedly, in
2008 there is predicted to be an oversupply of concentrates that would flow into lower zinc prices. So far zinc stockpiles amount to only few days supply, and zinc prices have not fallen markedly. Our commercial team have not been able to verify oversupply predictions, and argue that any lower prices would simply curtail new projects and some higher cost production. They also contend that it is quite unrealistic to suppose that Chinese mine production can maintain the high growth rates of the past three years. The recent rate is a function of a low starting base, and it is unlikely that mines can be found and developed to sustain growth. Whatever occurs, it is worth pointing out that our Angas mine has a very low cost for its zinc production, after credits for precious metals and lead. Furthermore, the results from the scoping study on our Tala Hamza project place it in the lowest cost quartile of zinc producers.

In the medium term, zinc looks to be an even better investment, since there are no large low-cost projects in the pipeline and many existing mines will start declining from 2010. Another factor that appears to be missing from the zinc price scenarios is that capital and
operating costs have been escalating, even doubling, with the boom conditions. Some projects, in areas requiring large infrastructure expenditures, have been shelved. Terramin makes it a requirement for its investments that its projects are well located with respect to infrastructure. This not only substantially reduces risks of over-runs, but means that costs for both development and operating will be low to start with. Tala Hamza and Angas both show these characteristics.

Priarie Downs' MD Mark Hansen, is even more conservative, suggesting 2012.

[shasta]

I have spoken to someone, (in the industry) who reckons in 1 to 1.5 years, that the Zinc Sector will take off just like The Uranium boom... and just like the Coal Seam Gas Boom... He said to start thinking about Zinc stocks as prices will stop falling and start rising...

Any thoughts? im a turkey at these sorts of plays...
Id seriously like to hear mackdunks views, and other views on a Zinc boom in 1-2 years... I trust my source...
Would PEM not be the best positioned for a Zinc Boom...?
thanks in advance....
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewd

It's Perilya's lead thats kept them afloat, rather than the zinc.

Keep an eye on kitco metals for any recovery in the Zinc price.

ZFX would be a better bet IMO.

Disc: Ex PEM holder

[Bobbyvee]

Shrewd

It's Perilya's lead thats kept them afloat, rather than the zinc.

Keep an eye on kitco metals for any recovery in the Zinc price.

ZFX would be a better bet IMO.

Disc: Ex PEM holder

..... and Terramin is the emerging star IMO. Will be in production from Angus (Sth Australia) this month and exciting exploration both in Aus and Algeria.

[Phaedrus]

Managed to read the articles today and sorry to say they are the normal text book crock I expectedIf you reckon textbooks are a crock, how do you propose to extend your education?


1st one calls me horribleNo he didn't. He said that while averaging may be sound mathematical logic, it is horrible investor logic. Though he did say "Never average down a losing position. This may be tempting as the ego wants so badly to be proven right that it looks appealing to average down your cost. But in reality what you are usually doing is throwing more money at a bad idea. The suckers who do this see it as a means of lowering their "breakeven" price..." so I guess he did call you a sucker!


2nd tells me I wont admit I am wrongRight on the button, I would have thought. Say you accepted you had made a mistake and got out of PEM when your initial investment had fallen by, say, 10% or even 20%, you would have lost only $1000 - $2000. Trouble is that even now you seem unable to call that initial investment a mistake and continue to maintain that you've done nothing wrong.


Last one is written by a Boffin who admits he "often just barely survived" A boffin? Someone involved with research, well removed from everyday life? Nah. This guy has "been in the business of trading since the early 1970s as a bank trader, as a member of the Chicago Board of Trade, as a private investor, and as the writer of The Gartman Letter, a daily newsletter I’ve been producing for primarily institutional clientele since the middle 1980s." Pretty good credentials, I would have thought. Sure he has had his lean times - we all do - but the important thing here is the set of rules he developed. Furthermore he learnt that "When I stand by my rules, I prosper; when I don’t, I don’t."


What has happened in the last few months has not changed my view. All it has done has increased my holdings from 5000 shares to 31666 shares You have learnt nothing at all from this experience then. That's a shame because you have paid some pretty expensive tuition fees.


Geez not even a debate What's to debate? You demonstrate your ideas in action, show us how you have turned $33,249 into $21,216 in only 5 - 6 months and claim you are more than happy with your approach. If losing 38% in such a short time doesn't persuade you that your system is not very good, nothing anyone says here will!


All against my actions What do you expect? You show us how your approach/opinions/system/investment style have resulted in a speedy personal loss of over $12,000. Of course people would see your actions as ill-advised and be against them. Did you expect support? Validation? Endorsement?


You say wait till the turn, what constitutes a turn? x amount or 20 days with out a drop? What you want here is for PEM to stop falling and show some sign of strength. This is a particularly volatile stock, so you have to be careful not to be sucked into buying by one of the fairly substantial but fake "recoveries" PEM has periodically staged while the overall downtrend continued to move inexorably on. TA can work very well in these circumstances, giving early identification of any meaningful rally. Here are 5 suggestions for you. None of these indicators have given a Buy signal over the year (so far) of this downtrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PEM615.gif

[AMR]

Shrewd

It's Perilya's lead thats kept them afloat, rather than the zinc.

Keep an eye on kitco metals for any recovery in the Zinc price.

ZFX would be a better bet IMO.

Disc: Ex PEM holder

Wouldn't PEM be much better leveraged to the price of zinc, being a high cost zinc producer and all? What I mean is, if zinc triples in price, PEM's profits will rise tenfold while ZFX's will only rise fourfold. (number are made up, but you see my point?)

[shasta]

Wouldn't PEM be much better leveraged to the price of zinc, being a high cost zinc producer and all? What I mean is, if zinc triples in price, PEM's profits will rise tenfold while ZFX's will only rise fourfold. (number are made up, but you see my point?)

I get your point, although a problem i always had with PEM is that they have just the one main producing mine...(& they sold off there goldmines)

Too much risk given the amounts of things that can & do go wrong in mining.

Last year they had the mine shut for quite a while after a fatality!

[suntboy]

Thankyou for your wisdom P

[Shrewd Crude]

Thanks for your feed back Shasta and others...
Think im going to stay clear of these sorts of plays...
Back to Oil now...
From a resource Turkey...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Thanks for your feed back Shasta and others...
Think im going to stay clear of these sorts of plays...
Back to Oil now...
From a resource Turkey...
:cool:
.^sc

New presentation out today & seems Copper is now part of Perilya (203KT)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=410426

[AMR]

PEM busted through my downtrend line on average volume today, although it's still a long way from my OBV trendline. Thinking of entering, or waiting for a higher low.

How long away would the copper project be?

[shasta]

PEM busted through my downtrend line on average volume today, although it's still a long way from my OBV trendline. Thinking of entering, or waiting for a higher low.

How long away would the copper project be?

Given the early stages of drilling, its still very much an exploration target.

They are looking at a scoping study as the resource has cobalt & silver as well.

Can't see them getting Mount Oxide into production before 2010?

Anyone else have a better handle on this?

[Huang Chung]

Batten down the hatches!

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00851548

On a more positive note, Andrew Michelmore (Zinifex, and soon Oz Minerals) seemed to be suggesting on Sky Business Channel this morning a bright outlook for zinc in a year or two. This seems to be in sync with what Kevin Moriarty (Terramin) and Mark Hansen (Prairie Downs) have been saying.

Straw hats in winter?

[Dr_Who]

I have recently been reading up on PEM, OXR and ZFX. Also been looking at the zinc and copper prices. It is hard to see zinc price bouncing from here. Have a look at the zinc 5yr grph and you will see that it may go as low as $50. Copper seems to have a nice up trend graph.

OXR and ZFX both have been hit hard recently. The graph looks horrible. I will continue to keep an eye on these guys. There will come a time to buy them, but not until one sees a bottom.

[whiteheron]

Dr Who

Most bottoms are well hidden and not generally on show
As for picking them, very difficult and frought with many problems

Only a few shares are sold at the bottom price and you only know what it was quite some time after the event

[suntboy]

Went to bed Sunday night tossing and turning
Every man to a T told me not to average down , Sell , Cut your losses
Listen to the Gurus
Didnt want to Phall Phlat on my Phace , thought about the charts presented to me and how they are only covering the last 12 months and yet I wish to hold for a fair few more years than that.
Their price was where it was 2 years ago and I would like to think they are in a better position than then.
Tried to talk myself into the fact that the chart in the last twelve months is exactly what I am looking for when compared to last 3 years
But realising I am a clown(as my wife contiually tells me) in a troupe of artists
I sold them all first thing Monday Morning
Woe is me

[macduffy]

Dr Who

Most bottoms are well hidden and not generally on show
As for picking them, very difficult and frought with many problems

Only a few shares are sold at the bottom price and you only know what it was quite some time after the event


Quite right, not a good idea to try to pick the bottom.
But an equally bad idea to buy a share in a downtrend. After many painful lessons I've learnt to only buy shares that are trending up.

;)

[Phaedrus]

Every man to a T told me not to average down, Sell, Cut your losses. While most everyone here disagreed with your averaging down, I can't find any record of anyone advising you to sell. That must have been your idea.


I thought about the charts presented to me and how they are only covering the last 12 months and yet I wish to hold for a fair few more years than that.I wouldn't think that price data from many years ago would be all that relevant now, but here is a longterm chart of PEM for you, covering the last 14 years. If you wished to hold for a "fair few more years", why did you sell?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PEM618.gif


Their price was where it was 2 years ago.... Never mind 2 years ago - it's lower than it was 14 years ago!


.....and I would like to think they are in a better position than then.So would I, but what we think is irrelevant. The market values PEM at less than it did in 1994.


Tried to talk myself into the fact that the chart in the last twelve months is exactly what I am looking for when compared to last 3 years If you are a "longterm "buy and hold" investor, why would you be looking for that sort of "boom/bust" scenario? I would have thought you would be looking for stocks that are in a steady uptrend. There is a lot of money to be made on stocks like PEM, but "buy and hold" is not the way to do it. You need to be a trend-follower and sell when the uptrend ends. A longterm holder such as yourself would give all their profits back to the market.


I sold them all first thing Monday morning Wow. When PEM is near longterm support levels and the downtrend appears to be weakening. What has happened here is that you have got yourself totally "out of synch" with the market. You were repeatedly buying into the downtrend when you should have been standing aside, and now that PEM has started firing off a few tentative buy signals for the first time in over a year, you sell.


Woe is me Indeed. The question is, what have you learnt from this experience?

[suntboy]

While most everyone here disagreed with your averaging down, I can't find any record of anyone advising you to sell. That must have been your idea.

I wouldn't think that price data from many years ago would be all that relevant now, but here is a longterm chart of PEM for you, covering the last 14 years. If you wished to hold for a "fair few more years", why did you sell?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PEM618.gif

Never mind 2 years ago - it's lower than it was 14 years ago!

So would I, but what we think is irrelevant. The market values PEM at less than it did in 1994.

If you are a "longterm "buy and hold" investor, why would you be looking for that sort of "boom/bust" scenario? I would have thought you would be looking for stocks that are in a steady uptrend. There is a lot of money to be made on stocks like PEM, but "buy and hold" is not the way to do it. You need to be a trend-follower and sell when the uptrend ends. A longterm holder such as yourself would give all their profits back to the market.

Wow. When PEM is near longterm support levels and the downtrend appears to be weakening. What has happened here is that you have got yourself totally "out of synch" with the market. You were repeatedly buying into the downtrend when you should have been standing aside, and now that PEM has started firing off a few tentative buy signals for the first time in over a year, you sell.

Indeed. The question is, what have you learnt from this experience?

Not much , the last post was purely tongue in cheek (or is that foot in mouth )
Woke on Monday a.m more determined to hold and comfortable with it
Spent the last day reading this thread from the start and there seems to be a sense of comments on the thread repeating themselves
How has it helped me?
It has given myself an insight as to how yourself and many others think and operate ( I would be interested in your opinion as to what % read and trade the market as you do)
As stated on other posts I treat it as if I am betting on a horse race and thus I am trying to gain an advantage over fellow traders
We continue to see stocks dive(more so than ever lately) but my aim is to devise a staking plan where I can continue to average down and when the trend does turn I do not need a massive rise to make a profit
Obviously 3 parcels of 10k is not the way to go
but 5k at $2
10k at $1
15k at .60c
would look much better
Similar to progressively upping your ante on a horse race , must come in at some stage(providing you have the funds to cover it)
Now I know it is not that simple and you must be confident in the company you are trading but I believe there is some merit in my approach or at the very least I will continue to seek an edge that others may not appreciate.
I thankyou for your response Phaedrus

[soulman]

I would imagine there will be lessons learned here suntboy.

Fallin in love with PEM and can't let go. Or are there other stocks as well?

There are always lessons in the stockmarket. Some lessons are teached everyday. You just got to seek it. I see PEM and CBH going back to about the 90 cents mark after the merger.

I got to tell ya, putting money in the bank term deposit for 8% pa is the best return you can ever get in this market. But of course if you are a punter and loves ACTION, then the sharemarket is the place to be right now. With AFG doubled yesterday, today CAZ and Heritage, there are always for potential huge gains any other day. I might just venture to the casino tonight but will tried not to play against the house.

[winner69]

Suntboy - knowing Phaedrus I am sure he saw through the nonsense in your earlier post ........... and be rest assured his response is his way of taking the mickey out of you .... think about it

If he was being serious he would have pointed out that the best result for you so far would have been by saving your initial stakes (or bets) you could have bought the whole $31k (I think that is what you said earlier) at 60c and you would be ahead already instead of still being under water

If PEM went to 30 cents no doubt you would buy another $10K worth .... reminds me of a joker I knew many years ago who had a racehorse (one of those ones that pulled a sulky) ..... when it started racing he thought it was going to be a champion ..... so he started doubling up just as you suggested ....... but he gave up that habit .... and just as well because that horse went to the races 57 times and never won a race ..... but he loved that horse right ot the day of it's demise ..... at the knackers yard and turned into dog tucker

[suntboy]

I would imagine there will be lessons learned here suntboy.

Fallin in love with PEM and can't let go. Or are there other stocks as well?

There are always lessons in the stockmarket. Some lessons are teached everyday. You just got to seek it. I see PEM and CBH going back to about the 90 cents mark after the merger.

I got to tell ya, putting money in the bank term deposit for 8% pa is the best return you can ever get in this market. But of course if you are a punter and loves ACTION, then the sharemarket is the place to be right now. With AFG doubled yesterday, today CAZ and Heritage, there are always for potential huge gains any other day. I might just venture to the casino tonight but will tried not to play against the house.

Always lessons to be learnt
Have spent the week culling my watchlists and have narrowed it down to 3
LHG ARU SMM
They still need to come down abit more(working on what I feel is the right price for me and the % of stake)
Cant see myself buying SMM as I already own a package at 19 cents and that would be considered averaging up

Good to see CBH cutting their workforce(something other miners need to address)

Take a leaf out of the fisheries over here and fly in some cheap labour LOL
No offence CountryBoy

[countryboy]

I aint cheap ! no wonder they will get rid of a few of us !
Rumour is merger is off...but haven't heard that from any one who has half abrain ! If i talk to someone who knows something will let you all know

Imagine working in a hole in the ground in the dark with only the odd person around..you image all sorts of things !

[Huang Chung]

Rumour that the merger is off.......that would be tragic in my opinion, especially for PEM. :(

Guess we'll have to wait and see.

[suntboy]

Trading Halt

[suntboy]

They have reached a stage in the merger where a trading halt is appropriate
Can read that 2 ways

[suntboy]

Nice time to b in a TH

[corporateraider]

So the merger is off! As a PEM holder I am not unhappy. I always saw the CBH deal as ungenerous and perhaps this was confirmed by CBH looking to sweeten the deal from 3.0 to 3.5 shares, or a 16% increase as an opening salvoe. Yes, they indicated that they are prepared to negotiate further.
Let me rephrase what I said earlier. I am less unhappy. The performance of PEM has been apalling where they have struggled to get anything right. And now I am wondering why the merger that the PEM mgt thought such a great idea only a couple of months ago now doesn't seem so.
And it has cost us a $2 mill break fee.

Let's hope that there is more to this story.

[STRAT]

but my aim is to devise a staking plan where I can continue to average down and when the trend does turn I do not need a massive rise to make a profit
Hi Suntboy,
Im not trying to wind you up here but if you were to apply that strategy to a company like Feltex for example you can see how it can all go horribly wrong.

Just a thought.

[suntboy]

Gday Strat
I prefer to get wound up which is why I thro the odd snipe on the URA thread
Cannot have one way traffic on threads(looks too much like ramping)
Whilst my opinions are more often than not slated(and probably rightly so) they at least get peoples opinions and stategies across when often they would of remained silent
All good in my humble opinion
As far as comparing to Feltex jeez thats a long bow and could be applied to any share
Look at some of the higher profiled stocks in the "S" at the mo
Havnt done to bad this week so another trip to church may be the go LOL

As far as the 2 mill breakout fee goes I do not see CBH chasing that as that would burn all their bridges which I think they can ill afford to do

[countryboy]

interesting to hear punters on other sites stating PEM or CBH will do better now this merger is off. prior to the merger I thought CBH was looking better but the recent spin out of assets has left the cupboard a wee bare. PEMs list today looked impressive but it is still lead and zinc development mostly.

next thing i can report is that some of PEMs management are looking at other jobs. They are under a lot of stress to get this running at a profit. look for a round of down sizing the work force as the first sign they are serious at making some hard desisions

Still advertising for more employees and about give out a pay rise

cheers

[Dr_Who]

I ve been keeping an eye on PEM, CBH, OXR, ZFX and MRX. All these stocks have been hit hard.

Copper prices still trending up, so why are copper stocks been high so hard and not performing?

[tricha]

I ve been keeping an eye on PEM, CBH, OXR, ZFX and MRX. All these stocks have been hit hard.

Copper prices still trending up, so why are copper stocks been high so hard and not performing?

PEM, CBH, ZFX are mainly zinc producers and OXR ( to a large degree )

1 - With inflation running rampent, costs are up huge.

2 - The price is now down to a level where mines are being shut.

3 - The OZ $ is going up, thats magnifies the problem.

4 - China have massive zinc resources, will be close to a big surplus again.

You would be a brave man to buy any of these companies at the moment, or any other zinc companies.

I suggust you check PEM cash zinc cost and check what they get paid for it :(



http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-zinc-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#5years)

[macduffy]

I ve been keeping an eye on PEM, CBH, OXR, ZFX and MRX. All these stocks have been hit hard.

Copper prices still trending up, so why are copper stocks been high so hard and not performing?

Well, we can all stop watching ZFX!
It's now not quoted pending the merger with OXR which ZFX shareholders have approved. Newly named OZ Minerals, if shareholders approve the name, will be traded under OZL from 7 July.

[Dr_Who]

I dont want any exposure to zinc. I think the zinc market is over and down for the long run. But I do believe there will be good demand in the future for copper, but with all the copper stocks at an all time low, what am I missing?

Is it just hedge funds playing tricks on copper stocks or are they just so cheap everyone is afraid to buy it? What am I missing?

[macduffy]

I dont want any exposure to zinc. I think the zinc market is over and down for the long run. But I do believe there will be good demand in the future for copper, but with all the copper stocks at an all time low, what am I missing?

Is it just hedge funds playing tricks on copper stocks or are they just so cheap everyone is afraid to buy it? What am I missing?

Well, PEM,CBH,ZFX are all predominantly zinc or zinc/lead stocks and OXR will be also now that the merger with ZFX has been approved. It's the current zinc price/stocks that's causing their SP weakness. So you'll need to cast your net a bit wider to capture any benefit from the demand for copper.

;)

[scorp57]

ZFX/OXR will make an aquisition soon to diversify. i am thinking either Coal or copper producer.

could even go for a larger company like Minara etc etc... or EQN? Won;t touch PEM in the short term IMO. zinc market is stuffed, and if it starts to turn aroundthey may just start to look at PEM etc then...

[AMR]

Bullish sign #2...a higher low formed on wednesday. I still think it won't rise beyond $1 for a while though, it needs to build a base.

[shasta]

Bullish sign #2...a higher low formed on wednesday. I still think it won't rise beyond $1 for a while though, it needs to build a base.

Perilya considers copper project sale

28-July-08 by Rebecca Lawson

Perth-based Perilya Ltd is considering its options over the Mount Oxide project as higher copper prices push the project onto the radar of several overseas and local companies.

The company said it had received a number of expressions of interest into the project, either through a joint venture or the outright purchase of the project.

The board said it had yet to make a final decision but an outcome regarding the Queensland project will be made this quarter.

"It is a strategically located resource with high potential for the development of an open cut or underground operation, which could be brought on-stream in a relatively short time frame," Perilya executive chairman Patrick O'Connor said.

The project has a copper resource of 203,000 tonnes with the deposit amenable to either open cut or underground mining.

The price of spot copper last traded on the London Metals Exchange at $US8184 per tonne, up 0.7 per cent from the previous trading day, while three-month delivery was up 0.71 per cent at $US7956/t

Why would PEM want to sell it's exposure to the other metal it has going in the right direction!!!

[shasta]

Perilya considers copper project sale

28-July-08 by Rebecca Lawson

Perth-based Perilya Ltd is considering its options over the Mount Oxide project as higher copper prices push the project onto the radar of several overseas and local companies.

The company said it had received a number of expressions of interest into the project, either through a joint venture or the outright purchase of the project.

The board said it had yet to make a final decision but an outcome regarding the Queensland project will be made this quarter.

"It is a strategically located resource with high potential for the development of an open cut or underground operation, which could be brought on-stream in a relatively short time frame," Perilya executive chairman Patrick O'Connor said.

The project has a copper resource of 203,000 tonnes with the deposit amenable to either open cut or underground mining.

The price of spot copper last traded on the London Metals Exchange at $US8184 per tonne, up 0.7 per cent from the previous trading day, while three-month delivery was up 0.71 per cent at $US7956/t

Why would PEM want to sell it's exposure to the other metal it has going in the right direction!!!

Despite PEM's chart looking more like a slope at the "X Games", it's looking a tad undervalued fundamentally.

With 197m shares on issue, & the closing SP today @ 48c = MC ~$95m

Cash on hand of $77m, minus debt of $26m = $51m net cash, so are all PEM's projects worth just $A44m? :confused:

Recent presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=416556

[absolut-advance]

Heres a Chart of PEM over a period of 16 years 8 Months. Check Out the Trend Line...

AA

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/pem_ax_price_daily02jan92_to_03mar0.png
Despite PEM's chart looking more like a slope at the "X Games", it's looking a tad undervalued fundamentally.

With 197m shares on issue, & the closing SP today @ 48c = MC ~$95m

Cash on hand of $77m, minus debt of $26m = $51m net cash, so are all PEM's projects worth just $A44m? :confused:

Recent presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=416556

[absolut-advance]

To fetch a pail of Copper.

Jack fell down and broke his crown, Jill came tumbling after.


http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/pem_ax_price_daily03aug05_to_12sep0.png

Up Jack got and home did trot

As fast as he could caper;And went to bed and covered his head

In Zinc and brown paper.

Then up Jack got and home did trot

As fast as he could caper;To Old Dame Dob who patched his knob With some lead and brown paper.

When Jill came in how she did grin

To see Jack's knob in lead plaster;

Mother vexed, did whip her next,For causing Jack's disaster.

[shasta]

AA

Your on fire!

What an extreme slope huh?

[absolut-advance]

Nothing like a garbage bag... as a snow sled,

and a slippery slope to keep the kids happy.

not that i have any

... now


AA

[Huang Chung]

Hey AA

What bourbon are u getting stuck into 2nite? :D

[absolut-advance]

Story of my Life... and it's a big one...

Seriously lol you don't want to know... but i'm going to tell you anyway ...

Wine Cask, I can afford it now I don't have the kids :eek:

AA


Hey AA

What bourbon are u getting stuck into 2nite? :D

[STRAT]

Wine Cask, AAHell, will you regret that in the morning :D

[SEC]

Despite PEM's chart looking more like a slope at the "X Games", it's looking a tad undervalued fundamentally.

With 197m shares on issue, & the closing SP today @ 48c = MC ~$95m

Cash on hand of $77m, minus debt of $26m = $51m net cash, so are all PEM's projects worth just $A44m? :confused:


Problem is that just six months ago PEM had net cash of $110M. So in six months PEM has chewed through more than half its cash - primarily in propping up its loss making Broken Hill operations. Why else would they be offering the Mt Oxide tenements up for sale?

Right now PEM is now probably worth more dissolved than operating. It has $51M net cash, a hedge book $80M in the money, nearly 100kt of stockpiled zinc and Mt Oxide. An opportunist could take over PEM for a song, close down the Broken Hill operations, use the cash to develop Mt Oxide or keep the cash and sell Mt Oxide, and keep its hedge book commitments from selling the zinc stockpile and buying lead on-market, and make a mint in the process.

SEC

[AMR]

Hi SEC,

Do you think that is what they are preparing to do...sell off Mt Oxide and wind up the company with cash distributions? Is this a common thing for miners?

AMR

[Shrewd Crude]

WOW
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

WOW


:cool:
.^scWow is right. Biggest volume in a year.

[SEC]

Hi SEC,

Do you think that is what they are preparing to do...sell off Mt Oxide and wind up the company with cash distributions? Is this a common thing for miners?

AMR

No it's not common for resource stocks - I suspect it's almost unprecedented.

PEM management won't be turning the lights out at Broken Hill, I suspect some other management team will be doing this. They will keep the surplus cash and flick off other assets including Mt Oxide, the zinc stockpile and financial derivatives).

SEC

[tricha]

No it's not common for resource stocks - I suspect it's almost unprecedented.

PEM management won't be turning the lights out at Broken Hill, I suspect some other management team will be doing this. They will keep the surplus cash and flick off other assets including Mt Oxide, the zinc stockpile and financial derivatives).

SEC

Fund managers hurling them out the door!
Yes I got scinged, but bettrer than being burnt.



Barclays Global Investors Australia Form 604 page 1 of 2 Form 604

Corporations Act 2001
Section 671B

Notice of change of interests of substantial holder

To Perilya limited (PEM)
ACN/ARSN 009 193 695
1. Details of substantial holder
Name Barclays Group lodged by Barclays Global Investors Australia Limited
ABN 33 001 804 566 (Barclays Global Investors Australia Limited)

There was a change in the interests of the substantial holder on 30 July 2008
The previous notice was given to the company on 30 June 2008
The previous notice was dated 30 June 2008

2. Previous and present voting power
The total number of votes attached to all the voting shares in the company or voting interests in the scheme that the substantial holder an associate had a relevant interest in when last required, and when now required, to give a substantial holding notice to the company or scheme, are as follows:


Class of securities

Previous notice

Present notice

Person’s votes

Voting power

Person’s votes

Voting power

Ordinary

12,430,291

6.32%

10,438,298

5.30%


3. Changes in relevant interests
Particulars of each change in, or change on the nature of, a relevant interest of the substantial holder or an associate in voting securities of the company or scheme, since the substantial holder was last required to give a substantial holding notice to the company or scheme are as follows:


Date of change

Person whose relevant interest changed

Nature of change

Consideration given in relation to change

Class and number of securities
Affected

Person’s votes affected

30/07/08

Barclays Group

Decrease in voting power

Average price $0.63

Ordinary
(1,991,993)

(1.02)%


4. Present relevant interests

Particulars of each relevant interest of the substantial holder in voting securities after the change are as follows:


Holder of relevant interest

Registered holder of securities

Nature of relevant interest

Class and number of securities

Person’s votes

Barclays Group

JP Morgan & other custodians – See Annexure "A"

Annexure "A"

10,438,298

5.30%


5. Addresses

The addresses of persons named in this form are as follows:


Name

Address

Barclays Global Investors Australia Limited

Level 43, 225 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000


Signature
_________________________________ 1 August 2008
Secretary Date
Barclays Global Investors Australia

Barclays Global Investors Australia Form 604 page 2 of 2

This is "Annexure A" of 1 page referred to in Form 604 Notice of change of interests of substantial holder

Relevant interest in Perilya Limited ("PEM") held by members of the Barclays Group.
The list of Barclays entities and their respective holdings are as follows:


ASX CODE

STOCK NAME

COMPANY

HOLDING

%

PEM

Perilya Limited
Barclays Global Investors, N.A.

165,833

0.08

PEM

Perilya Limited
Barclays Capital Inc

-

-

PEM

Perilya Limited
Barclays Capital Securities Ltd

762,315

0.39

PEM

Perilya Limited
Barclays Global Investors Australia Ltd

9,510,150

4.83

10,438,298

5.30

The JP Morgan Chase Bank Inc. and various other custodians (Custodians) hold shares in PEM as custodian and for which the members of the Barclays Group are either:

•
the responsible entity or trustee of pooled investment products such as registered managed investment schemes (Funds); or
•
the investment manager of Portfolios held for a number of institutional investors. The institutional investors are generally superannuation funds regulated under the Superannuation Industry Supervision Act 1993.
The holding of shares in PEM was acquired as part of the wide portfolio of Australian shares and units acquired for the Funds and the Portfolios.
The members of the Barclays Group and the Custodians may hold relevant interests due to the capacity of these entities to dispose of the shares in PEM.
Each investor in a Fund owns an undivided interest in the Fund’s assets, no client directly owns any asset of the Fund. The unitholding of each Fund varies from time to time as clients enter and withdraw from the Funds. The various institutional investors with portfolios delegate the management of the portfolios to the members of the Barclays Group.

___________________________ 1 August 2008
Secretary Date
Barclays Global Investors Australia

[SEC]

Fund managers hurling them out the door!
Yes I got scinged, but bettrer than being burnt.



Barclays Global Investors Australia Form 604 page 1 of 2 Form 604

Corporations Act 2001
Section 671B

Notice of change of interests of substantial holder

To Perilya limited (PEM)
ACN/ARSN 009 193 695
1. Details of substantial holder
Name Barclays Group lodged by Barclays Global Investors Australia Limited
ABN 33 001 804 566 (Barclays Global Investors Australia Limited)

There was a change in the interests of the substantial holder on 30 July 2008
The previous notice was given to the company on 30 June 2008
The previous notice was dated 30 June 2008

2. Previous and present voting power
The total number of votes attached to all the voting shares in the company or voting interests in the scheme that the substantial holder an associate had a relevant interest in when last required, and when now required, to give a substantial holding notice to the company or scheme, are as follows:


Class of securities

Previous notice

Present notice

Person’s votes

Voting power

Person’s votes

Voting power

Ordinary

12,430,291

6.32%

10,438,298

5.30%

[[/LEFT]

Barclays have been shown to be a bunch of clowns when it comes to trading the ASX. They have a dominant momentum trading strategy which pumps prices up too high (Barclays were buying PEM throughout 2006 at prices $3 - $4+) then proceed to sell theor holdings to ridiculous lows (Barclays have been selling throughout 2008 down to 50c and below). This strategy has occurred for numerous resource stocks and probably a few industrials too.

I would like to say 'buy when Barclays sells' but unfortunately Barclays still have 5+% to get rid of and I bet it was them selling feverishly today.

SEC

[SEC]

Barclays have been shown to be a bunch of clowns when it comes to trading the ASX. They have a dominant momentum trading strategy which pumps prices up too high (Barclays were buying PEM throughout 2006 at prices $3 - $4+) then proceed to sell theor holdings to ridiculous lows (Barclays have been selling throughout 2008 down to 50c and below). This strategy has occurred for numerous resource stocks and probably a few industrials too.

I would like to say 'buy when Barclays sells' but unfortunately Barclays still have 5+% to get rid of and I bet it was them selling feverishly today.

SEC

Yep it was indeed Barclays selling at any price this week, holding below 5% as of 5 August and has probably sold a good 3 - 4M since then. Average sell price since 1 August of 50c, an excellent -86% return on their 2006 investment. Other fund managers would do well to emulate Barclay's performance.

If we can get some more good volume through around the 40 - 50c mark in the next week or two then PEM is well worth a look.

SEC

[STRAT]

Yep it was indeed Barclays selling at any price this week, holding below 5% as of 5 August and has probably sold a good 3 - 4M since then. Average sell price since 1 August of 50c, an excellent -86% return on their 2006 investment. Other fund managers would do well to emulate Barclay's performance.

If we can get some more good volume through around the 40 - 50c mark in the next week or two then PEM is well worth a look.

SEChi SEC,
Global conditions and fund managers eh?

I know you are fairly well versed on PEM. Is the business still sound or is there cancer within perhaps diagnosed but not yet made public. If you are right a serious bounce may be coming some time in the future :eek:

PS Bring back Cartman

[Huang Chung]

With a zinc price that continues to fall, PEM just seems too high risk at the moment.

People always go on about how you want to be in producers, not explorers, in these difficult times for commodities. I think this is a terrible gereralisation, and often wrong. If you've got a low cost producer, fine, but high cost producers are probably losing money, and really under the pump.

Explorers, on the other hand, endure a falling share price, but usually have money in the bank, and no debt. Maybe that means winding back a drilling program, or something similar, and ride out the storm.

Oh, yeah SEC, I'll second Strat's motion to bring back Cartman!

[SEC]

hi SEC,
Global conditions and fund managers eh?

I know you are fairly well versed on PEM. Is the business still sound or is there cancer within perhaps diagnosed but not yet made public. If you are right a serious bounce may be coming some time in the future :eek:


PEM's current business model is not sound. When certain posters touted PEM as being a takeover target in 2006 by the likes of ZFX I commented at the time that ZFX would not be interested because they had first option to purchase Broken Hill and Elura mines from Pasminco in 2003 but declined because they were high cost mines and could only make a profit when the zinc price was surging. Operating costs at Broken Hill have significantly increased since then to the point that Broken Hill will currently be losing money hand over fist, even with the in-the-money hedges.

Furthermore, PEM has a history of flogging off assets to generate cash, rather than generating cash from operations - Strike Oil, gold assets, forward selling 17.2Moz worth of silver at prices well below current prices, Heron stake and now trying to sell Mt Oxide.

So even when the zinc price recovers PEM will not generate much cash from Broken Hill. PEM is going to have to make a difficult decision to wind back or shut down Broken Hill before the cash runs out, or face being broken up itself.

Conclusion: PEM is currently worth more dead than alive.

SEC

P.S. We happy?

[Huang Chung]

PEM's current business model is not sound. When certain posters touted PEM as being a takeover target in 2006 by the likes of ZFX I commented at the time that ZFX would not be interested because they had first option to purchase Broken Hill and Elura mines from Pasminco in 2003 but declined because they were high cost mines and could only make a profit when the zinc price was surging. Operating costs at Broken Hill have significantly increased since then to the point that Broken Hill will currently be losing money hand over fist, even with the in-the-money hedges.

Furthermore, PEM has a history of flogging off assets to generate cash, rather than generating cash from operations - Strike Oil, gold assets, forward selling 17.2Moz worth of silver at prices well below current prices, Heron stake and now trying to sell Mt Oxide.

So even when the zinc price recovers PEM will not generate much cash from Broken Hill. PEM is going to have to make a difficult decision to wind back or shut down Broken Hill before the cash runs out, or face being broken up itself.

Conclusion: PEM is currently worth more dead than alive.

SEC

P.S. We happy?

Another good post SEC, and yes, we happy :).

[STRAT]

PEM's current business model is not sound. When certain posters touted PEM as being a takeover target in 2006 by the likes of ZFX I commented at the time that ZFX would not be interested because they had first option to purchase Broken Hill and Elura mines from Pasminco in 2003 but declined because they were high cost mines and could only make a profit when the zinc price was surging. Operating costs at Broken Hill have significantly increased since then to the point that Broken Hill will currently be losing money hand over fist, even with the in-the-money hedges.

Furthermore, PEM has a history of flogging off assets to generate cash, rather than generating cash from operations - Strike Oil, gold assets, forward selling 17.2Moz worth of silver at prices well below current prices, Heron stake and now trying to sell Mt Oxide.

So even when the zinc price recovers PEM will not generate much cash from Broken Hill. PEM is going to have to make a difficult decision to wind back or shut down Broken Hill before the cash runs out, or face being broken up itself.

Conclusion: PEM is currently worth more dead than alive.

SEC

P.S. We happy?Thanks Sec.Your answer is appreciated and the avatar is sweeeet.

[underDOG]

PEM's current business model is not sound. When certain posters touted PEM as being a takeover target in 2006 by the likes of ZFX I commented at the time that ZFX would not be interested because they had first option to purchase Broken Hill and Elura mines from Pasminco in 2003 but declined because they were high cost mines and could only make a profit when the zinc price was surging. Operating costs at Broken Hill have significantly increased since then to the point that Broken Hill will currently be losing money hand over fist, even with the in-the-money hedges.

Furthermore, PEM has a history of flogging off assets to generate cash, rather than generating cash from operations - Strike Oil, gold assets, forward selling 17.2Moz worth of silver at prices well below current prices, Heron stake and now trying to sell Mt Oxide.

So even when the zinc price recovers PEM will not generate much cash from Broken Hill. PEM is going to have to make a difficult decision to wind back or shut down Broken Hill before the cash runs out, or face being broken up itself.

Conclusion: PEM is currently worth more dead than alive.

SEC

P.S. We happy?


having lost 82% this year alone, are you sure there is still a pulse?

[Huang Chung]

Perilya on a trading halt pending a announcement regarding its hedge book and Broken Hill operations.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00870955

[shasta]

Perilya on a trading halt pending a announcement regarding its hedge book and Broken Hill operations.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00870955

HC

Here's the update...

Resizing Broken Hill operations & closing out the hedge book to net $60.3m

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=418140

I will keep an eye on OZL & PEM should ZINC prices start trending back up

Not sure how long this may take, 18 -24 months depending on what source you read :confused:

[winner69]

HC -- is that announcement today good or bad for the future of PEM, esp its shareprice

Been following this thread for ages ... tempted at $5 when it was cheap. tempted at $4 when it was really cheap, even more tempted when it was a bargain at $3, waited until the chart looked better when it was $2, at $1 was it the buy of the century but the chart said NO so what do we do now

Looks like a smaller company still totally dependent on commodity prices so maybe not the time to be tempted again

Thoughts

[shasta]

HC -- is that announcement today good or bad for the future of PEM, esp its shareprice

Been following this thread for ages ... tempted at $5 when it was cheap. tempted at $4 when it was really cheap, even more tempted when it was a bargain at $3, waited until the chart looked better when it was $2, at $1 was it the buy of the century but the chart said NO so what do we do now

Looks like a smaller company still totally dependent on commodity prices so maybe not the time to be tempted again

Thoughts

Winner69

PEM are almost completely hamstrung by the falling Zinc price.

I guess it's prudent & inline with other high cost Zinc producers to downsize or close mines, & reduce exploration.

PEM has cash to hopefully ride this out, but i'm afraid it's going to take a long time to get back on track.

Long term i think PEM can bounce back, but does need to diversify a little more, perhaps getting it's Copper project up & running?

[Shrewd Crude]

shasta,
how come you dont have a disclosure list anymore...?
its always interesting to know what you are up to..!
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

shasta,
how come you dont have a disclosure list anymore...?
its always interesting to know what you are up to..!
:cool:
.^sc

Haha now that would be telling ;)

I've changed my investment/trading strategy & have sold off/down many stocks.

If you want an idea with what i'm looking at/possibly holding you will need to view the threads i post on...;)

[Shrewd Crude]

Shasta,
I have been reading those thread..... I read the VPE thread, and it would seem you have not sold... But I read somewhere else that you said you may have sold... hum... its all real confusing stuff...
oh well... all the best... and catch you up...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

Shasta,
I have been reading those thread..... I read the VPE thread, and it would seem you have not sold... But I read somewhere else that you said you may have sold... hum... its all real confusing stuff...
oh well... all the best... and catch you up...
:cool:
.^scShrewdy, Shasta is hiding his holdings after a newbie said he was going to spend his lifes savings on URA. :eek::D:p

[shasta]

Shrewdy, Shasta is hiding his holdings after a newbie said he was going to spend his lifes savings on URA. :eek::D:p

Thats not quite the reason, i've had an ongoing battle with ASB Sec & have had to go back & reconcile some recent purchases & sales to agree to what they say i'm holding...

I wonder if anyone else has had issues with Nominee accounts holding options & rights? (I had all sorts of expired rights showing as held :confused:)

Accordingly to ASB Sec i am holding a small amount of PEM :eek:

Not enough to worry about, so i'll leave them & wait for the recovery :rolleyes:

Please DYOR - my postings & comments are NOT BUY recommendations!

[STRAT]

Thats not quite the reason, i've had an ongoing battle with ASB Sec & have had to go back & reconcile some recent purchases & sales to agree to what they say i'm holding...

I wonder if anyone else has had issues with Nominee accounts holding options & rights? (I had all sorts of expired rights showing as held :confused:)

Accordingly to ASB Sec i am holding a small amount of PEM :eek:

Not enough to worry about, so i'll leave them & wait for the recovery :rolleyes:

Please DYOR - my postings & comments are NOT BUY recommendations!I wasnt being serious with that post Shasta ;)

[shasta]

I wasnt being serious with that post Shasta ;)

My last line wasn't either :D

I shudder to think if i'd held PEM all the way down (i got out at $3.56, having bought at $3.82)

[Shrewd Crude]

So what you are saying shasta is you dont know what you are and are not holding... 50 or a few PEM is neither here nor there.. not worth disclosing that huh...but surely you must know what you have and dont have...
you only hold 4-5 stocks at one time...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

So what you are saying shasta is you dont know what you are and are not holding... 50 or a few PEM is neither here nor there.. not worth disclosing that huh...but surely you must know what you have and dont have...
you only hold 4-5 stocks at one time...
:cool:
.^sc

Correct 5 max ;), PEM is one of them

[SEC]

So even when the zinc price recovers PEM will not generate much cash from Broken Hill. PEM is going to have to make a difficult decision to wind back or shut down Broken Hill before the cash runs out, or face being broken up itself.


It was just a matter of time before something happened with Broken Hill. The cash burn must be pretty high with PEM having to close out its hedge book as well. Nice short term gain but they'll pay for it over the next two years.

At least management decided to take action. Otherwise others would have done it for them and would probably have been more drastic.

On the positive side the decision to wind back Broken Hill takes out another 30000 tonnes per annum of zinc production. The forecast zinc surplus for the next couple of years is fast reducing.

SEC

[Huang Chung]

Agree SEC.

I haven't looked at the details, but maybe some of the deep high cost Broken Hill lead/zinc may now never be mined.

At these beaten down levels, I really think zinc is the metal to be in, if you've got a time horizon of a couple of years.

[underDOG]

PERILYA’S DOWNGRADE
Broken Hill's lead/zinc/silver operations slide back to the bad days
Australian base metals miner Perilya was able to give the Australian share market a dose of adrenalin earlier this week with progress drilling on its Mount Oxide copper-cobalt-silver project in Queensland but today it produced a large spoonful of castor oil.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Thursday , 21 Aug 2008

PERTH -



The workforce for Perilya Ltd (ASX: PEM) at its big underground lead-zinc-silver mines in Broken Hill in New South Wales will be halved as part of a major cutback by the company due to the slide in commodity prices, notably zinc.

This is a far cry from 18 months ago when high metal prices were producing stellar profits for Perilya and funding its various endeavours, while at the same time Broken Hill neighbour CBH Resources Ltd (ASX: CBH) was advancing its Rasp decline development into its Central Mining Lease 7 leases.

The rationalisations by Perilya at Broken Hill include placing re-establishing deep mining operations on the North mine and completion of the Potosi decline project in mothballs.

Another move announced today was closing out of the company's hedge book to realise $A60.3 million ($US52.58 M) in cash. At June 30 the mark to market of the hedgebook was about $A80 M ($US69.76 M) but during July the mark-to-market fell as a result of an increased lead price. "On the date that the decision was made to close the hedge book, the mark-to-market of the book had fallen to approximately $A48 M ($US41.85 M)," the company said.

Perilya's executive chairman Patrick O'Connor said the operational changes are aimed at ensuring the Broken Hill operations maintain production that is "financially viable" and allows the operation to weather the current low metal prices.

The revised plan will see ore production reduced from 1.8 million tonnes per annum to 950,000 tpa and this is expected to realise about 55,000t of contained zinc and 50,000t of contained lead.

"The company is confident that the Broken Hill operations can be sustained to maintain a level of continuity of production and one that is financially viable at current metal prices for at least the next two to three years without significant compromise to the longer-term life of mine," O'Connor said.

"Should metal prices increase in the future, we will be in a strong position to ramp-up production and to utilise the full potential of the Broken Hill concentrator, with ore sources from the Southern Operations, Potosi, the North Mine and Flying Doctor."

He said the restructure will also provide for management of all exploration activities in the Broken Hill region and for the Flinders Zinc Oxide project in South Australia to be transferred to the responsibility of the Broken Hill operation "to provide the most cost-effective retention of expertise and asset management."

Earlier this month CBH said it was rationalising production and its workforce at the Endeavour lead-zinc-silver-copper mine near Cobar in NSW - the project that has financed the company's Rasp mine development in Broken Hill and the Panorama mine development in Western Australia's Pilbara hinterland.

In a briefing on CorporateFile today, detailed on Intierra's Minmet database, CBH's managing director Stephen Dennis said a decision to postpone further development on the Rasp project was also due to the low metal prices.

He said though the proposed merger between Perilya and CBH had been called off by Perilya he felt that further industry consolidations are "inevitable."

[tim23]

Some wiseacre on this thread told me this was worth a look at about $4.00 whats happened?

Disc: I never bought and have never owned.

[Shrewd Crude]

Tim,
do you not know...
there has been a couple of share splits...
:)
.^sc

[tim23]

Thanks - didn't know - at what ratio?

[shasta]

Thanks - didn't know - at what ratio?

Im not so sure Shrewd's got his facts right?

PEM has plummeted due to having a high cost Zinc operation, & the price of Zinc falling substantially.

There grades aren't overly flash & Broken Hill is not a long term mine.

They have recently closed out there hedge book at a nice profit, but are in all sorts of trouble.

If the price of Zinc doubled (to around $US 1.50/lb) they may be able to turn things around.

Unless your a Zinc buff, or ultra contrarian PEM & Zinc is general is a no go area!

[underDOG]

:D:D:D:D

piss has been taken

[marknz88]

Got in on tuesday at 45c. Will ride it out with a tight stop loss before the short term gains subside :)

[Shrewd Crude]

hahaha... Of course I made it up...
im testing to see what sort of reaction i'll get...
later...
:p
.^sc

[macduffy]

Not a great idea to spread false information - even in jest.
We all make enough honest mistakes as it is.

:)

[Shrewd Crude]

macduff,
what I said was so far out there that everyone knew it was not true...
I see where you are coming from though... my sense of humor gets me in a heap of trouble at times...
I wont do it again...
thanks...
...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

macduff,
what I said was so far out there that everyone knew it was not true...
I see where you are coming from though... my sense of humor gets me in a heap of trouble at times...
I wont do it again...
thanks...
...
:cool:
.^sc

PEM has reported it's FY results...:(

($140m) loss, which includes an $188m inpairment loss, & a staggering $81m in employee benefits :eek::eek::eek: WTF?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=419186

[corporateraider]

81million. My guess is that a big chunk is redundancy payments. Outrageous yes, but is there any other single factor, or process that they have managed well? Maybe it may have been the absence of spelling mistakes in the Annual Report?

And there is no doubt a huge payout for the former ceo in that 81M?

My bet is that they will cock up how they deal with Mt Oxide.

Why did I never sell my shares?

[Huang Chung]

I wonder how Countryboy faired in all this?

U out there cb?

[absolut-advance]

All very interesting is PEM for those interested:

It might Just be a Buy if it smashes through 54c with a heap of volume.

2 Month Chart
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/pem_ax_price_daily26jun08_to_02sep0.png
1 Year Chart
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/pem_ax_price_daily29aug07_to_12s-1.png


AA

[macduffy]

Thanks, aa.
Very intriguing! I've resisted the temptation to buy PEM all the way down from around $3-50 - sometimes the temptation has been quite easy given the trend - but my interest has been re-kindled!

;)

[SEC]

PEM has reported it's FY results...:(

($140m) loss, which includes an $188m inpairment loss, & a staggering $81m in employee benefits :eek::eek::eek: WTF?


I think that $81M is ongoing labour costs - works out at about $100K per staff member, sounds about right and includes compulsary super etc etc (and will lavish payouts to Jubber and other exec managers/board for their outstanding effort of wealth destruction). The industry isn't exactly underpaying for miners at the moment :D

I also note PEM has not been honest in what it defined as 'cash' - it included a lot of commercial paper that is now defined separately as 'financial assets' - now devalued by $10M.

Interesting graphs AA especially in light of the Friday FY result announcement after market close. The PEM FY results were appalling and if the market was rational PEM would continue its downslide next week. But the market is not rational at the moment and if the market perceives PEM as having 'cleared the desks' then the entry point will be confirmed.

SEC

[absolut-advance]

The Current Trend Up in PEM is on fairly Low volume, For any confirmation of the buy signal (above 54c) it would be important for the price to move up and the volume to be significantly higher than its 100day Volume Moving Average (pink line) to be considered a confirmed buy signal (just my opinion only)

Volume is the Fuel behind Price Moves as volume precedes price. Very high volume days when the price moves up substansibly can be taken as a indication that there will be a continuation of that trend over the short term. When buying into a trend once established, Buying is best done on very low volume days on price pull backs after a high volume move up. If the Pull backs are on very low volume this is healthy flushing of profit takers and weak hands, if the Pullback day is on medium volume often one can wait to enter cheaper on the following days. Once sellers are flushed out the trend can continue on its merry way. Price movements Down on very High Volume may indicate the beginning of a trend reversal... and a following down trend.

In Summary: falling volume indicates a weakening trend, rising volume a trend getting stronger.

In a strong up trend, a very low volume day in a price pull back can be a buying opportunity.


DYOR not advice.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/pem_ax_price_daily_and_volume___dai.png

All the best with PEM, time will tell i guess, Ive learnt the market is totally irrational, therefore one must learn to work with what ever it throws at us.

AA


I think that $81M is ongoing labour costs - works out at about $100K per staff member, sounds about right and includes compulsary super etc etc (and will lavish payouts to Jubber and other exec managers/board for their outstanding effort of wealth destruction). The industry isn't exactly underpaying for miners at the moment :D

Interesting graphs AA especially in light of the Friday FY result announcement after market close. The PEM FY results were appalling and if the market was rational PEM would continue its downslide next week. But the market is not rational at the moment and if the market perceives PEM as having 'cleared the desks' then the entry point will be confirmed.

SEC

[suntboy]

I hope they stay around the lows for another few months (Spring )got a few more "cashies"
coming up and am continuing to average down.Last parcel was at .45
Amazing to think what price they were 12 months ago or even when I first bought at $2 that I could now own over 100,000 shares
Having spent years being on the receiving end and then the pointy end of redundancies my eyes lit up when their latest news came thru.
As an investor it is not so much how much they lost last year but more the fact they have done something about it

I hope all is well Countryboy(you have not replied) if you are one of the ill fated I hope you have got a good payout and have found another prospect

Welcome to Suntland

[tricha]

I think that $81M is ongoing labour costs - works out at about $100K per staff member, sounds about right and includes compulsary super etc etc (and will lavish payouts to Jubber and other exec managers/board for their outstanding effort of wealth destruction). The industry isn't exactly underpaying for miners at the moment :D

I also note PEM has not been honest in what it defined as 'cash' - it included a lot of commercial paper that is now defined separately as 'financial assets' - now devalued by $10M.

Interesting graphs AA especially in light of the Friday FY result announcement after market close. The PEM FY results were appalling and if the market was rational PEM would continue its downslide next week. But the market is not rational at the moment and if the market perceives PEM as having 'cleared the desks' then the entry point will be confirmed.

SEC

All I can say anyone buying into this now has got balls, in the big picture China used to be a net exporter, I picking that will happen again soon, they have mountains of the stuff.



http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-zinc-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#lmestocks_5years)http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-zinc-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#5years)

[absolut-advance]

Hi SEC,

Yes this small trend up in my view is just another example of how price isn't aligned to underlying fundamentals.
What is really happening here is holders have reached a point where they just weren't willing to take any further losses and were reluctant to sell, there stubbornness has tightened up the share register to the point where the few buyers that are around (and there aren't very many, as we can see by the volume) are having to pay higher prices.
Two things may happen,

A large seller, larger than the current buyers may unload his holding, breaking the current momentum behind this weak trend up.... e.g the price falls further.

or

New investors might pick up on the trend up and enter.
This will lead to increased volume,momentum and further market participation and Trend strength.

All rather simplistic I know.

Fundamentally PEM might fall over the medium/long Term (years) if Fundamentals don't agree with Price moves up.


But Basically we can make Profitable decisions on these small moves with very little downside and unlimited upside ... if we use tight capital protection stops, and Trail our stops to lock in profit should the market turn against our position.

*But we could do better if we invested in stocks where FA and TA agree and Sentiment and Market participation (Volume) is high.

For the reason above I won't be buying PEM in the near Future.

However for those who have a thing for PEM this week is a good time to be watching.

AA



Interesting graphs AA especially in light of the Friday FY result announcement after market close. The PEM FY results were appalling and if the market was rational PEM would continue its downslide next week. But the market is not rational at the moment and if the market perceives PEM as having 'cleared the desks' then the entry point will be confirmed.

SEC

[winner69]

That 50 cents seems a bit of a barrier .... many expected more action than ths since the good announcement but 50 seems it lot

Even though still not too bad for those who bought at 45 recently .... esp if aa is right and there is little further dowmside

[winner69]

Jeez in free fall today ..... good for those averaging down no doubt ... but pretty close to lows sub 40 again

The chart on another thread would have said no way

[absolut-advance]

I never said there was little further Downside...
I said It might be a Buy if it smashes through 54c with a heap of volume.

Which It didn't!

actually I see plenty of Downside especially if 40c breaks.

AA

I see plently further downside
That 50 cents seems a bit of a barrier .... many expected more action than ths since the good announcement but 50 seems it lot

Even though still not too bad for those who bought at 45 recently .... esp if aa is right and there is little further dowmside

[winner69]

I never said there was little further Downside...
I said It might be a Buy if it smashes through 54c with a heap of volume.

Which It didn't!

actually I see plenty of Downside especially if 40c breaks.

AA

I see plently further downside

Hey a-a -- wasn't referring to your earlier chart and comments.

Was referring to Phaedrus's (unnamed) chart on the "Anatomy of a fiasco' thread where one would never believe that this stock could possibly go so low ... it is just getting cheaper and cheaper and its PE is just getting lower and lower and it is becoming even more of a screaming buy.

Your chart a-a was also a great one for doubters of TA to study - esp arouund using TA for the timing of buys and sells. We'll never know if PEM was a good buy if it smashed through 54 on heaps of volume but the message was don't buy unless it does. Whats amazing is that when it didn't get through the 54 PEM has nose dived by nearly 20% ... that is a huge change in sentiment eh

Enjoy your observations a-a

[absolut-advance]

Yes it's True that all the Big Boys who move the market watch the critical Support and Resistance levels, If a Stock Fails a attempt at breaking through resistance cleanly it will often very rapidly fall back to previous support.
Understanding these Levels and the space between them can help with buying and selling decisions, Simply Buy at Support and Sell at Resistance, another approach is to use a target buy order to buy on a break just above a critical Resistance Level.

AA


Whats amazing is that when it didn't get through the 54 PEM has nose dived by nearly 20% ... that is a huge change in sentiment eh

Enjoy your observations a-a

[winner69]

I actually I see plenty of Downside especially if 40c breaks.

AA

I see plently further downside

That 40 holding OK today ...... even on a bad day for the market

Maybe 40 is the low after all

[h2so4]

That 40 holding OK today ...... even on a bad day for the market

Maybe 40 is the low after all

I hope your not bottom ticking. You will be added to Phaedrus's (unnamed) chart if he sees your post!:mad:

[winner69]

I hope your not bottom ticking. You will be added to Phaedrus's (unnamed) chart if he sees your post!:mad:


Hadn't thought through the horror of that happening h2so4

But if Phaedrus used all my comments they would have to be something like these -

- so much excitment about the PEM fundamentals must be a good buy at $4.50 seeing there's over a $1 a share in the bank .... BUT HECK THE CHART IS LOOKING SAD

- last report looks pretty good and the urbanisation of China will continue so cheap as at $3.00 ..... BUT HECK AS THE CHART IS STILL LOOKING SAD

- still have heaps of cash in the bank so fundamentally the mining resources have become even cheaper so EM at $2.00 is a steal ..... BUT HECK THE CHART IS LOOKING EVEN SADDER

- Haven't dine much research into PEM but those who seem to know what they are talking about still enthsiastically believe $1.00 is cheap so maybe just maybe a good buy at this point .... BUT HECK THE CHART IS LOOKING ... WELL EVEN SADDER

- At 50 cents .. this must be it ... PEM have dome something about their performance and the future will be better ..... BUT HECK THE CHART WHILE LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER IS STILL LOOKING SAD

Like macduffy i resited the temptation

Maybe h2so4 keeping an eye PEM ... look if the price of zinc spirals up and PEM keep their costs under control they will cream it .... and good gains could come ... BUT THE CHART HAS TO LOOK BETTER

This has been a great case where 'listening to the market' has won out over fundamentals. All the selling over the last year might have been stupid (who am I to judge) but collectively they were saying PEM was stuffed and that is what eventuated in reality.

Thats the past .... the future is a different story and PEM might have some glory days again. If zinc prices start to soar again and the PEM chart looks a lot better I might join the club

[h2so4]

Hadn't thought through the horror of that happening h2so4



Maybe h2so4 keeping an eye PEM ...

Thats the past .... the future is a different story and PEM might have some glory days again. If zinc prices start to soar again and the PEM chart looks a lot better I might join the club

No I am not a chart watchera, and with all those ifs.. mights.. and maybes I just have to pass on PEM.

[SEC]

That 40c support has now convincingly been breached - it looks as if fundamentals have taken precedence over sentiment...

The trendline as shown by AA is a good example of how not to use trendline breaks in isolation. Was it combined with rising volumes? No. Was there an old support/resistance line to better define an entry point? No.

Might be good for some good short term returns but volumes are now such that it would be difficult to trade a decent ($100K+) position without moving the market. Better for me to stick to the large caps if I want to trade short-term.

SEC

[soulman]

I hope they stay around the lows for another few months (Spring )got a few more "cashies"
coming up and am continuing to average down.Last parcel was at .45
Amazing to think what price they were 12 months ago or even when I first bought at $2 that I could now own over 100,000 shares
Having spent years being on the receiving end and then the pointy end of redundancies my eyes lit up when their latest news came thru.
As an investor it is not so much how much they lost last year but more the fact they have done something about it

I hope all is well Countryboy(you have not replied) if you are one of the ill fated I hope you have got a good payout and have found another prospect

Welcome to Suntland

Are you legit Suntland and if so, how do you sleep at night?

This PEM has got legs to reach 25 cents in the near term and stayed there until something speeeeecial happens.

Making losses near $10 mil on commercial paper just make things worse. Maybe a capital management announcement anticipated in the upcoming AGM will make things better for shareholders.

Their former stablemate CBH don't look that flash either.

[absolut-advance]

SEC:
The trendline as shown by AA is a good example of how not to use trendline breaks in isolation.

The Trendline wasn't used in Isolation it was backed by a requirement to break resistance Cleanly with a heap of volume, The Buy Criteria was never met.

Was it combined with rising volumes? No.

The Lack of Volume had been Discussed by me here: http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=221063&postcount=660

Was there an old support/resistance line to better define an entry point? No.

Yes, SEE: Post http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=221038&postcount=657 (http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=221038&postcount=657)

Below the Chart:
Red = Resistance 53.5c (Hence MY Quote: It might Just be a Buy "if" it smashes through 54c with a heap of volume (which it never did)(so never became a Buy)
Blue = Support 40c (Which today has been Broken)

*
actually I see plenty of Downside especially if 40c breaks. ---> SEE: http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=221718&postcount=666 (http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=221718&postcount=666)

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/pem_ax_price_daily26jun08_to_02sep0.png


Might be good for some good short term returns but volumes are now such that it would be difficult to trade a decent ($100K+) position without moving the market. Better for me to stick to the large caps if I want to trade short-term.

I Totally Agree

See:*But we could do better if we invested in stocks where FA and TA agree and Sentiment and Market participation (Volume) is high.

For the reason above I won't be buying PEM in the near Future.
---> http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=221143&postcount=663

So Far I believe what I suggested Has turned out fairly Correct?

AA


That 40c support has now convincingly been breached - it looks as if fundamentals have taken precedence over sentiment...

The trendline as shown by AA is a good example of how not to use trendline breaks in isolation. Was it combined with rising volumes? No. Was there an old support/resistance line to better define an entry point? No.

Might be good for some good short term returns but volumes are now such that it would be difficult to trade a decent ($100K+) position without moving the market. Better for me to stick to the large caps if I want to trade short-term.

SEC

[tricha]

Hmm AA, I think u r following the wrong trend line and u need to do a bit of research on China's production, if u know what I mean. :rolleyes:

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-zinc-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#5years)http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-zinc-1y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#lmestocks_1year)

[absolut-advance]

Can you make yourself useful and Post me a up to date Price chart for Manganese, can't seem to find one.

Thanks

AA

Hmm AA, I think u r following the wrong trend line and u need to do a bit of research on China's production, if u know what I mean. :rolleyes:

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-zinc-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#5years)http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-zinc-1y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#lmestocks_1year)

[winner69]

Are you legit Suntland and if so, how do you sleep at night?

This PEM has got legs to reach 25 cents in the near term and stayed there until something speeeeecial happens.

Making losses near $10 mil on commercial paper just make things worse. Maybe a capital management announcement anticipated in the upcoming AGM will make things better for shareholders.

Their former stablemate CBH don't look that flash either.

Soulman -- I once thought that suntboy was just winding Phaedrus up with some of his posts but I now think he is legit ... and probably is averaging down as he claims. One of his more recent posts said average was 70 cents ... maybe his 45 cent ones brings it down a bit more but 35 is ouch time.

[suntboy]

Yes they do and after payment for my latest paint job there will be a bit more free to continue to average down.
Me wind people up?
Ha Ha I spend my life goin against the grain and keepin the buggers honest (all my years in Oz looked after that)
I sleep at night by working hard all day , coming home and running my kids and myself ragged then scouring the web with a six pack of Vic by my side safe in the knowledge that I do not need these funds for another 6 or 7 years and am personally happy that the co is addressing its problems(nice to see Hellyea close yesterday)

Welcome to Suntland

[suntboy]

My biggest nightmare is that they get bought for a song in the next couple of years

Welcome to Suntland

[countryboy]

suntboy

more pain to come from PEM
320 miners wont be enough to mine BH
at the moment she is one trick pony with lead and zinc
shutting down the north with some good grades is a good move however the sth end will be struggle to make ends meet
keep your money in your pockets and watch for a while

as for CBH...they have a management team that is more likely to make things happen. hard desisions made early about RASP and endeavour, spin off of assets non core and the attempted merger with PEM, just need a profitable mine !

at least you have a job suntboy...420 of my mates lost theres yesterday:(

[Huang Chung]

Good to hear from you again CB.

Hope things work out for you.

[Huang Chung]

PEM in a trading halt.

Is more zinc production about to come out of the market?

[tricha]

PEM in a trading halt.

Is more zinc production about to come out of the market?

Late ASX announcement reads Mount Oxide developement;)

[shasta]

PEM in a trading halt.

Is more zinc production about to come out of the market?

HC

Its about Mt Oxide & the Copper...

I'm guessing they are selling it :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=420466

Late July PEM announced they were considering expressions of interest for Mt Oxide

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=415177

[Huang Chung]

HC

Its about Mt Oxide & the Copper...

I'm guessing they are selling it :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=420466

Late July PEM announced they were considering expressions of interest for Mt Oxide

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=415177

Cheers Shasta.

[shasta]

Cheers Shasta.

PEM ann - Sale of Mt Oxide into a separate exploration company

PEM still has an interest (73%) into the project

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=420556

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CHN&E=ASX&N=420559

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CHN&E=ASX&N=420561

[suntboy]

I notice there is a Anthony Kiernan on the Challice board
Please tell me he is not related

[shasta]

I notice there is a Anthony Kiernan on the Challice board
Please tell me he is not related

I found out theres a Rachel Kiernan @ CBH as well :(

They are bloody everywhere, the ASX is infested with them :D

[Huang Chung]

I notice there is a Anthony Kiernan on the Challice board
Please tell me he is not related


http://www.ltresources.com.au/upload/images/20071005%20Tony%20Kiernan.gif
ANTHONY W KIERNAN, LLB
NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Anthony is a Solicitor and has considerable experience in the administration and operation of listed public companies. He practises extensively in the areas of media, resources and information technology law. In addition to his legal practice Anthony provides commercial and corporate advice to various entities. He is also Chairman of Anglicare (WA) and BC Iron Limited, and is a director of Uranium Equities Limited, Chalice Gold Mines Limited and North Queensland Metals Limited.


Gotta be related....

[Corporate]

20c! I hope to many people arent holding PEM

[moimoi]

I found out theres a Rachel Kiernan @ CBH as well :(

They are bloody everywhere, the ASX is infested with them :D

don't follow this stock...the significance of this surname is what.?

cheers
Moi

[SEC]

PEM ann - Sale of Mt Oxide into a separate exploration company

PEM still has an interest (73%) into the project


Dear oh dear they only got $25M for Mt Oxide, and only in illiquid scrip not cold hard cash.

That was the only jewel left in PEM (if you don't include their 100kt Zn stockpile) and they've given it away for a song - barely 1% of in-ground resource value.

SEC

[shasta]

don't follow this stock...the significance of this surname is what.?

cheers
Moi

Michael Kiernan who started off with CSM, & sent MON into the ground...

Is also involved in/or was URA, AZC, IRL, TTY, MON, CSM ...

His investment vehicle "Crawley Investments" should be seen as a red flag :mad:, his son Laurence pops up around the show as well...

SEC - I would have thought 203kt of Copper (+ some Cobalt & Silver) was worth a helluva lot more too :confused:

[h2so4]

20c! I hope to many people arent holding PEM

The Phaedruses will come home to roost.:)

[moimoi]

thanks shasta!!!

stockness shows a trade of 700k shares going thru this morning pre open @ $3.25.

Anyone got an explanation for these type of trades miles away from "the market" price...have noticed it with others as well.??

cheers
Moi

[SEC]

thanks shasta!!!

stockness shows a trade of 700k shares going thru this morning pre open @ $3.25.

Anyone got an explanation for these type of trades miles away from "the market" price...have noticed it with others as well.??

cheers
Moi

Exercised put options.

[corporateraider]

I agree with you SEC- this sale of Mt Oxide makes no sense. Assuming of course that they have sold it and don't change their minds as with CBH!

[suntboy]

Jeez there is a god
Tried to buy in the 30s but couldnt due to TH
So got more than I expected yesterday at 20
Thankyou
Im not happy they off loaded their copper to what appears a marginal co
but I would imagine they know what they are doing or maybe the copper deposit is not what it seems?

Happy in Suntland

[shasta]

Jeez there is a god
Tried to buy in the 30s but couldnt due to TH
So got more than I expected yesterday at 20
Thankyou
Im not happy they off loaded their copper to what appears a marginal co
but I would imagine they know what they are doing or maybe the copper deposit is not what it seems?

Happy in Suntland

Oh dear...

http://business.smh.com.au/business/share-slump-the-final-insult-in-perilyas-year-20080911-4epk.html

[shasta]

Oh dear...

http://business.smh.com.au/business/share-slump-the-final-insult-in-perilyas-year-20080911-4epk.html

PEM Ann - UBS selling down :rolleyes:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=420959

[shasta]

PEM Ann - UBS selling down :rolleyes:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=420959

PEM - Annual Accounts (for those wanting to pick thru the carcass!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=422980

[suntboy]

oh dear !!!!

[STRAT]

There you go Macca. The long awaited take over offer. You always reckoned it was atakeover target :p

31cps in script

[AMR]

Do either CBH or PEM have a future if all they have are high cost mines?

[shasta]

Do either CBH or PEM have a future if all they have are high cost mines?

Probably not :confused:

Mt Oxide project update (nb, in the fine print what else was included)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CHN&E=ASX&N=423617

Talk about wealth destruction PEM, is a classic example of how inept management can destroy a company!

[Huang Chung]

Dear oh dear they only got $25M for Mt Oxide, and only in illiquid scrip not cold hard cash.

That was the only jewel left in PEM (if you don't include their 100kt Zn stockpile) and they've given it away for a song - barely 1% of in-ground resource value.

SEC

How the wheel has turned.....Mt Oxide deal is off.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CHN&E=ASX&N=426268

[shasta]

How the wheel has turned.....Mt Oxide deal is off.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CHN&E=ASX&N=426268

Smartest thing that inept management has done since i exited at $3.56

[Huang Chung]

Smartest thing that inept management has done since i exited at $3.56

....but it was Challice who no longer thought it was a good deal :confused:.

[shasta]

....but it was Challice who no longer thought it was a good deal :confused:.

PEM were deseparate to even think of entering into that agreement.

I'm glad it fell thru, PEM have something thats worth keeping!

[soulman]

Nothing is worth keeping for PEM. It's all over red rover for a coy that were once a $1 billion dollar coy. The only hope PEM have is to buy some coal seam asset and change direction of the coy and the change of name too, just like dot com coy buying mining asset back then and vice versa.

[TEOTIAWKI]

PERILYA SECURES WATERSHED ALLIANCE WITH ZHONGJIN
RAISES$45.5 MILLION VIA A PLACEMENT OF NEW SHARES
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081209/pdf/31f331nhj0w15c.pdf

It appears somebody thinks Perilya is still worth something, and if the Chinese are investing maybe it is time to buy again.

Zhongjin needs more looking into but this could be a turning point for PEM, a much more hopefull one than CBH's offer.

[shasta]

It appears somebody thinks Perilya is still worth something, and if the Chinese are investing maybe it is time to buy again.

Zhongjin needs more looking into but this could be a turning point for PEM, a much more hopefull one than CBH's offer.

Couple of interesting anns by PEM, now snearing CXC's Broken Hill Silver project.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=453004

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=557347

PEM has Zinc, Copper & Silver

Just been re-reading there latest presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=439945

Add to this PEM has a bit of cash, & i'm thinking PEM could be a nice recovery story.

Am rekindling my interest, as i don't have any direct resource exposure

I like there purchase off CXC, i'm a fan of silver ;)

[winner69]

At 40 cents PE must be less than 2 now .... cheap as?