PMC ?

[kittydashwood]

Watching this for a while looking for confirmation of an upward trend. Everything pointed to this week being make or break for several mva. But I can't work it out is this a gradual descent or ascent? Does anybody have any ideas?

[arco]

The action is currently forming a Symmetrical Triangle.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. Various calculations suggest an upside break may take the price to resistance area 2.65-2.80. Further out targets would be 3.05-3.15 (these could change depending on forward action). Be aware of possible resistance at 2.55.
In the instance of a downside breakout figures will need recalculating.

ST Example

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/images/symtri-conti-sunw.gif

[Phaedrus]

Kitty,
Because PMC has been tracking more or less sideways for about 6 months now, moving average crossovers are common and largely meaningless. The statistics for symmetrical triangles are such that they have little predictive value, but if you wait for the breakout, they are much more reliable. Why speculate as to which direction is more likely - wait for the breakout and you then put the odds more firmly in your favour.
Notice how for the last 6 weeks or so, all high volume days have been down days. This is bearish, although we can see that down day volumes do appear to be falling. This imbalance is reflected by the falling OBV, which has been in a downtrend for about 4 months. Joe Granville would say this is because the smart money has been moving out of this stock. While you may be uncertain as to PMC's current price trend, there is no such confusion over the OBV.
The chart shows some nice price/volume climaxes at significant turning points.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/PMC001.gif

[kittydashwood]

Thank you both for the explanation. Interesting to see the declining OBV.

Looking at the charts again over a shorter period I found what could be a Bullish Stick Sandwich.

This pattern signals a Reversal of this steady slide in the highs lately.

The price action of the Thursday suggests that the downtrend is over. The next day opens higher, but sells off to close similiar to the close of the 1st day. At fridays close we are closed on a short term support level.

I will watch for confirmation via a higher close on Monday. PMC did buy into Shell before the recent slide and have increased their stake.
They seem to have a well founded macro view.

Any entry next week would be around the 2,31 mark if a breakout appears to be happening, the target price in the 3.05 range within six months.

Still undecided...

[kittydashwood]

Sellers have consolidated at 2.30 but are starting to dry up. THowever the evidence says we are still locked in the trading range.

Still undecided...

[PLYNCH]

Fundamentally PMC is over valued. fair value is closer to NTA of $1.72.
The unit trust offers the same management and assets for NTA and no chance of trading at a discount.
PMC traded at a 20% discount at one time 1997?
+insiders have been selling.

[kittydashwood]

No support to speak of but still rising. Maybe following the rising Dax .

[kittydashwood]

Traded at 2.35 this afternoon. New uptrend in place?
Why does this share trade at such a premium?

[kittydashwood]

The more I watched this share and researched the company the less I understand it .

I wanted small exposure to European markets in Aussie dollars with a dividend reinvestment program, and PMC at the time seemed to fit the bill.

However after a year of watching I agree with much of PMC's marco economic theory but still can't grasp the sum of it's parts or the cosistent premium or what appears to be the inside trading or the mom and dad bleeding from brokers.
[V]

Kitty Dashwood An Australian Financial Planner put a very good description on this Fund that explains why you cannot value it. His description was that it is basically A Hedge Fund but not a true Hedge fund as we know it.

[KD]

I considered buying PMC but instead decided to invest directly with a Platinum fund. One problem with buying into their funds directly is that you need $25K to kick off. However I understand it is also possible to get exposure through Master Trusts presumably at lower initial investment. Hunter Hall may be an alternative as they too like Platinum are stock pickers with a great track record and specialise in European stocks. These can be bought on the ASX.


The reason I chose not to buy the LIC (PMC) was primarily because PMC was trading well above NTA and, for this reason, even those at Platinum were selling. Platinum have a range of funds - one of which is their European fund which may be of interest. As I understand, lately Platinum have been selling down the European component of their global funds (Platinum International - which is equivalent to PMC and Platinum International Brands) in favour of Asian/Japan equities. So their European fund gives best exposure to Europe. They are unusual in that they can short sell stocks and they also hedge their cash component. For this reason it is a bit hard to know just how the fund will respond relative to changes in global markets. I'm happy to invest with them for international exposure. They are stock pickers with a great track record. Anyway, the following is an article which might provide a bit more background on Platinum. Their website is also worth a visit.

Taking a punt proves Platinum's mettle
December 28, 2003

Kerr Neilson picks stocks in, at times, unfashionable places. Picture: Peter Rae
Going against the herd has proved profitable for Kerr Neilson. Rod Myer reports.
Kerr Neilson, director and founder of Platinum Asset Management, has made a living doing things that other people are generally loath to do. In a fund management industry increasingly focused on strategies that track the market, Neilson deviates by backing his judgement and picking stocks in, at times, unfashionable places.
His deviation has provided good results, with Platinum's International Fund returning 19.15 per cent a year since 1994 while the benchmark Morgan Stanley Capital International index has risen 6.06 per cent in that time. Platinum's funds under management have risen from nothing early in 1994 to $9.5 billion today. And nearly all of that money is invested offshore.
South African-born Neilson had earned a sound reputation managing offshore funds for Bankers Trust for 10 years to 1993, which helped him gain support when he set out on his own.
International investment champion George Soros put about $US120 million ($A162 million) into Platinum's International Fund as well as buying 20 per cent of the company on the proviso, Neilson says, that he had no part in management.

Neilson has strong opinions on the markets, which he backs with action, a trait not all investors have. "Some are good at telling the story but forget to pull the trigger," he says. He also has views on his competitors in the financial world and the herd mentality that leads so many to stick with the safety of tracking indexes.
"We pick stocks; we're not too concerned with labels like growth or value. We just want to buy companies we think are mispriced. Neglect does not normally reside in high valuations."
Many others, he says, "talk about different styles. But if you're managing with a low tracking error (staying close to the index) you can't do anything but follow the tail of the market, otherwise the tracking goes out and you're failing in your mandate . . . It's following, not leading," he said.
Neilson and his investment managers (who include linguists, mathematicians, medical scientists and lawyers) scour the world looking for undervalued stocks in markets or sectors they think are ripe for expansion. Then they build positions to back their judgements.
Platinum has 26 per cent of funds invested in Japan, while the Morgan Stanley index rating is 9 per cent. It also has funds in Korea and India, which are barely on the radar screen of the index tracking funds.
And as for

[KD]

I bet Platinum are looking at this situation closely for opportunities -


India's stock market suffers record fall
Source: BOMBAY AP
Date: 2004-May-17 05:51 PM

India's stock market recorded the biggest crash in its 129-year history as investors panicked about the economic policies of the incoming communist-supported government of Sonia Gandhi.

The country's stock market monitor halted trading at the main bourses for an hour after share prices tumbled more than 10 per cent within 20 minutes of the opening.

Shares prices plunged a further 5 per cent when the market reopened, and the Securities and Exchange Board of India ordered trading suspended yet again for two hours.

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The benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, the Sensex, tumbled to 4282.98 points, down 15.52 per cent, before trading was suspended for the second time.

The Nifty index of the National Stock Exchange, the country's largest, which opened in 1994, plunged 17.47 per cent.

Manmohan Singh, a Congress party official who was the architect of India's economic liberalisation policies and former finance minister, scrambled to reassure investors, saying the new government would be pro-investment.

"There is absolutely no need for panic in the financial markets," he told reporters. "There will be stability and transparency in all policies."

Singh said the new government would not hesitate to "take action against" people who "manipulate the market and create unnecessary panic."

The plummet, which stock exchange officials said was the biggest drop ever, came despite a warning issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India to be "extraordinarily watchful of any unusual movements in the market and report to SEBI immediately."

Brokers said the volatility in the market would continue until the new government's policies, especially those on privatisation of state-run companies, are made clear.

"Foreign funds are selling as they aren't clear about what the new government is going to do on the economic reforms front," said Sumeet Mehta, analyst at Fortis Securities.

The market plunged on fears that the Congress party, set to form a new government after elections last week, may slow privatisation of state-run companies and undo market-friendly policies to appease the leftists, whose support is crucial for a parliamentary majority.

The Congress party said the market fears are misplaced.

"I am puzzled by the market crash," Pranab Mukherjee, a senior Congress official, told the CNBC business news channel.

Mukherjee has been asked by Gandhi to consult the communists and other allies and draft a "common minimum program" outlining the economic and foreign policies of the new government.

Anybody have any ideah why the big drop over the last few days.

[COLIN]

Has the market lost faith in Keir Neilson? Is he no longer regarded as a guru in Aus? Has the "god" got feet of clay, after all? Is the market now questioning why PMC has attracted a hefty premium for a number of years? Has he been putting too much faith in a sustained recovery in the Japanese markets? Has the effect of his persistent shorting of positions now shown up as a flawed strategy?
(And is the moon made of green cheese?)

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Has the market lost faith in Keir Neilson? Is he no longer regarded as a guru in Aus? Has the "god" got feet of clay, after all? Is the market now questioning why PMC has attracted a hefty premium for a number of years? Has he been putting too much faith in a sustained recovery in the Japanese markets? Has the effect of his persistent shorting of positions now shown up as a flawed strategy?
(And is the moon made of green cheese?)


I will continue talking to myself, on this one, in view of the apparent frenzy being created by the Platinum Asset Management float.
I have held a good parcel of PMC for a number of years, having faith in the guru status of Wonder Boy, Kerr Neilson. Some of the other funds in the Platinum stable might still be performing OK but PMC has failed to live up to promise for a while now and I have sold down about half of my former holding. Neilson seems to have lost his way with this one. For instance, the latest Quarterly Report shows that PMC lagged the MSCI, for the year as a whole, by 3.7%. Rather a miserable performance by someone who has been acclaimed as a guru by his adulatory fans for many years now. With PMC he seems to have become obsessed with shorting, for quite some time now (still 34% of total assets as at end of March), on markets that have been generally steadily rising. And he seems to have misjudged the Japanese situation, holding over 25% in that market for a prolonged time.
I hope that those who see Platinum Asset Management as a surefire winner, long term, are proved right. I had the opportunity to invest but have flagged it away; I'm not particularly interested in paying top dollars for over-ripe lemons.

[ratkin]

Saw a chart of this stock just now and wondered why the shareprice has suddenly collapsed. Looking at the latest announcement i was shocked to see that although the price has slumped to 1.96 the premium to asset value is still massive.
It is only worth 1.64 , why the massive premium? It has hardly been a star performer in recent times.

When you see the likes of Barramundi trading at a discount to nav its hard to justify pmc trading at such high levels