NOG-June 05 Prediction

[digger]

O.K. you visionaries,clairvoyants,loud mouths,etc.etc,let us make up some rules and go for a real life assesment of what NOG weighted average head share price will be on the last trading day of June 05. That is currently the final trading day before the nogoc's are due to convert.

As of today there are two days to assist or make improvements to my suggested rules.


1/ Predictions start on Tuesday 20th to give everyone one last chance to digest mondays Amokura report.

2/Final acceptance date is Friday 23rd .Can't make it too long as many changes are happening with this co at this time.

3/ Each participant must pick a different value from what is already recorded. Figers must be exact,no ranges and no provisional values depending on such and such a thing happening or not happening. We have to be more or less all in the same boat.

4/ $100 entry fee with winner take all

5/ For july 05 we arrange a meeting or party place to award winner.My thinking here is that we hijack the new Wellington head office. Arrange later.

[digger]

6/ In the event of any distribution of part of the existing company,all parts to be collectively added back together on 30-06-05


7/ If takeover should intervene ,then final value carried forward to june 05.

[waaihoek]

A party etc to acknowledge the best price pick is a great idea.

But ..... the results of the present drilling, particularly Pukeko, will have such a wild impact on the price that any projections made in the next few days could be completely and utterly meaningless.

Therefore suggest that final day for selecting a price for June 05 should be 31st May, by which time the Pukeko drilling result should be out.

Anyway thats my view, others may be happy with Friday 23rd April, lets have some thoughts on this.

Waaihoek

[hoppy]

START;now 23/4/04 there are going to be a dozen variables in the next 15 mths. so what it is worth, 30th june 05 nog $1.75 my caulculations/licence 38460 GO/ KUPE GO/ PIKE/GO. GOOD LUCK HOPPY

[digger]

Thanks for your thoughts Waaihoek,but surely using the same reasoning we should also wait for Mangatoa or that possible third well if it is to be drilled. To own options today and keep them is in effect taking all these varable into account,whether the option holder acknowledge this fact or not. Hence i think Hoppy is right,so we start on Tuesday 20th finish on friday 23rd

[bermuda]

$2.45 which is up from my earlier estimate of $1.90.This will take into account the Amokura find which points to a real bonanza right across this prospect and the adjacent prospect recently acquired.
Suggest we make it a Black Tie dinner after the AGM with invites extended to NOG management.Looking forward to it already.

[Happy]

Sounds amusing so I am in. I agree also on the dates. Given the views on the NOG price will be significantly higher than today why put in $100?

Why not everyone chip in the cash to buy a parcel of NOG and same applies...then instead of say $1000, you will get say $2500...

Otherwise also such a prize technically requires Internal Affairs approval...

[waaihoek]

OK Digger ...

Kupe and Pike are in the bag, Amokura is Hot, Hot, Hot ....
And so also will be Kiwi and Pateka ....

I am picking Pukeko to come in big time ....

And Mangatoa maybe ...

So .... $2.95 no problems !!!!!!!!!!!

Bermuda, black tie dinner sounds just the business !!

W

Sunday 18 April, 5:50pm -- Price revised downwards from $3.60 to $2.95 .... got a little carried away earlier in the day.

[Prophet]

Great idea guys. I'm in. But as others have pointed out this company is a real moving target at the moment and I'm sceptical as to wether there is enough fact in the market for anyone to accurately make a valuation at this stage. I'd like to think north of $2 but I have a feel that its probably in the $1.50 circa. Will need to revisit my valuation calcs and post my thoughts shortly.

[Prophet]

Well I thought $1.50 ish but to be honest its just too light. I'll put at bet in at $2.00 and that could be too light if Mangatoa is successful.

[digger]

Any more takers for the best june 05 prediction value of NOG shareprice. Noticable absent here is the doomsayers.Remember to hold options till they r due to expire or nearly so is in fact looking into the future. So let us have your best guess of what your crystal ball has to offer.
Mine is $2-42

[waaihoek]

Revised exercise price:

I am picking $1.85 on 31 June 05.

Waaihoek.


I am picking that Kupe and Pike will be on track, Tui-Amokura-Pateke also on track, and a moderate say 40mmbo strike at Pukeko waiting for full interpretation of 3D seismic survey before go ahead for development.

[bermuda]

Waaihoek, your downward revision has left me as the top bidder at $2.45 which i am more than happy to hold onto.I presume we are going to celebrate after the 2005 AGM in October/November? which will probably be in Wellington.If I win I am prepared to pick up the entire drinks bill.

[Happy]

I'm in at $1.75,

[waaihoek]

Bermuda, thats very generous re the drinks .... if I am on the button then likewise will pick up the drinks tab.

Nice ending to the week for NOGs and NOGOCs .... looks like support should continue next week with rig getting ready to spud Pukeko !!

W

[waaihoek]

Digger, how about extending the close off date untill the end of next week to see if anybody else wants to come aboard ??

W

[clearasmud]

My guess $2.20 for the head shares:)

[biker]

I would be very happy with a 50% increase on today's close so will go with $1.10.If I've undershot,some of the profits above that will go towards catering the celebration.

[digger]

Waaihoek,and other oilers,think i have a better plan than just extending the present closing date.
The idea needs working on and lots of suggestions to refine it.It looks something like this. We give the competition appro 4 legs and agree on a varying scale on measuring the success of each leg.Obviously the closer we get to 30-06-05 the easier to estimate the likely value for the head share. So why not try something like this.
1/ First close two weeks after Amokura hits basement.
2/Second close two weeks after pukeko drilled to bottom
3/ Third close on 30-06-04. This gives one year to run and also perhaps we will know Pike gas sales by then
4/ Forth close date for prediction after Mangatoa drilled.




Well the idea is something like that but of co**** we still have the possible third well,and other varabiles.
What do u all think??
This thing has come across as needing more flexibility. From the other site[Fixx] one estimate is from zero to 500,so clearly we need to work on some system that allows estimates after the wells are drilled,instead of all in the dark.

[bermuda]

Would prefer to keep it simple and keep as one estimate for closing price as at 30 June 2005.Agree with suggestion to extend closing date to end of this week.That will give everyone a further chance to enter and will give existing players the chance to revise their bid upwards.

[waaihoek]

I agree on keeping it simple with one end point in June 05 with a $100 riding on it.

However we could have a second informal bid (no money involved) for what the head share price will be at the time of this year's AGM.

AGM is normally held some time about late October or November. Close off date for this "2004 AGM" price could be say by the end of this week.

I will attend AGM in Wellington or Auckland where ever it is held, perhaps we could have a drink after the AGM, should be lots to talk about over a beer !!

I am picking $1.30 by this year's AGM date.

W

[digger]

Thanks guys for the replies. So we operate under the KISS [keep it simple stupid]rules. It was just an idea to hopefully add more depth to this game. Am at loss to understand why there are no negative predictions .Have we given C9 too much of a hard time or is it simply that no-one wants to bet against the NOG upward tide.
So lets have only one competition and that being to guess the shareprice for 30-06 -05.We also extend the final date until the end of April 04. That is a good cut off date as it is the end of the month and before Pukeko
That is it final no more changes,to the rules.However we who have already put in an prediction have until friday to change or confirm our position.

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by waaihoek

OK Digger ...

Kupe and Pike are in the bag, Amokura is Hot, Hot, Hot ....
And so also will be Kiwi and Pateka ....

I am picking Pukeko to come in big time ....

And Mangatoa maybe ...

So .... $2.95 no problems !!!!!!!!!!!

Bermuda, black tie dinner sounds just the business !!

W

Sunday 18 April, 5:50pm -- Price revised downwards from $3.60 to $2.95 .... got a little carried away earlier in the day.


:D:D:D:D:D:D
nahhhhhhhhh u didnt...


everyone at around $2.


SUB $10[:p]
[:X]C9

[Dazza]

dunno if this thread is still open...

but have around 5 months left now...
not yet as close to the 1.50 mark lowest prediction i guess for peeps?

[digger]

Yes Dazza it sure is still open. Since I started this thread many things have happened,most are still to happen. Pukeko was both a loss and very encouraging. Need 3d around there to point the right drilling spot. Pike might turn out bigger than i thought back in april 04,certainly coal and oil are higher. All the rest we are still waiting for econonimic forcasts and also the mid year report.
My guess stays the same at 2-42 and we will see plenty of action in the coming months to justify this price.

[halcyon9]

quote:Originally posted by cloudnine


quote:Originally posted by waaihoek

OK Digger ...

Kupe and Pike are in the bag, Amokura is Hot, Hot, Hot ....
And so also will be Kiwi and Pateka ....

I am picking Pukeko to come in big time ....

And Mangatoa maybe ...

So .... $2.95 no problems !!!!!!!!!!!

Bermuda, black tie dinner sounds just the business !!

W

Sunday 18 April, 5:50pm -- Price revised downwards from $3.60 to $2.95 .... got a little carried away earlier in the day.


:D:D:D:D:D:D
nahhhhhhhhh u didnt...


everyone at around $2.


SUB $10[:p]
[:X]C9





REMEMBER THIS BABY

this will be a great laugh come June....less than 1 month

IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE

U BET

[:p]

[:X]C9

[Mick100]

In all honesty I don't think the share price is going to go anywhere over the next 2 yrs - just sideways. I expect to pick up a few more below 75c in the next year or two

.

[halcyon9]

:D:D:D:D HERE IS THE LIST, $100 each

Hoppy $1.75
Bermuda $2.45 (will pick up full drinks tab)
Waaihoek $2.95 (revised down from $3.60!:D then $1.85)
Prophet $2.00
Digger $2.42
Clearasmud $2.20
Biker $1.10
Cloudnine Sub $1.


looks like I`m due $800 pretty soon:D:D

and a whole lotta drinks from the triangle.





aaaahhahahahahahhahahaah bhafffarrrrrraraaahahaaaa


PS: hope you boys weren`t buying at $1.28 because she`s been off around 32% recently.

[waaihoek]

.
At 5 pm on Thursday 30 June, I am picking Biker to be in the money !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Particularly if NZOG can really deliver in June the final investment decision for the go ahead on the Pike Coal Mine.

Note that the recent QR has again listed June as the target month for this decision.

But then again C9 might be the lucky fellow.

Time will soon and surely tell.


In the meantime, C9, please respect the original rules as posted by Digger !!

The deadline for posting guestimates for the share price as posted by Digger was Friday 23rd April 2004.

On 23 April 04 my revised guestimate was posted as NZ$1.85

My earlier more exuberant guestimates posted ealier that week are nul and void.

If in June it is announced that Pike is a goer AND that the Mangatoa drill is confirmed then NOG could well be north of Biker's NZ$1.10 !!!

Time will tell !!!!!!!!!!!!

W

[Sharebroker]

Waaihoek,

Your estimate of sp points towards a 'plug a figure out of the air' approach towards NOG (as befits a mining stock). How does this gel with your guestimates of the worth of NOG as well?

Mining stocks are lovely, aren't they? Greed drives the punters so they are easily led, manipulated, ramped and taken advantage of. Figures can be plucked out of the air to justify any valuation - until the chickens come home to roost - dry wells and revised reserves (always seem to be downwards) bring punters back to reality.

Hoppy $1.75
Bermuda $2.45 (will pick up full drinks tab)
Waaihoek $2.95 (revised down from $3.60! then $1.85)
Prophet $2.00
Digger $2.42
Clearasmud $2.20
Biker $1.10
Cloudnine Sub $1.

You should really be ashamed of yourself.

[digger]

30 june 05 is slowly creaping up on us and while my prediction at $2-42 is looking very high i more than ever think it reflex value but the market dosen't Oh well the clostest still gets the $100 dollars from each partipicant to be collected at next years AGM.
In hindsight i did not so much as pick a too high price but a bad time to ask the market to reflex it.With the company having the options exercised then it is a big ask[see SB for more details] and is having too much of a downward influence on the SP.
Here we go again but really we need another one based at some independent time of exercise or other company monies requirement.Maybe we should make this an annual event.More later.

It has been a good ride and will be an even better one after july and august turn up.
Cheers---it is onward and up from here.

[waaihoek]

ShareBroker

My estimate of a $1.85 share price for Digger’s competition last year was based on a “back of the envelope” breakdown of project values for the various NZOG projects plus cash in the bank etc. No guarantees were offered by myself or anyone else in the competition that the price would be X, Y, or Z.

My estimate of project values was contingent on the projects being on track for development. While all three major projects have been progressed, in the case of Kupe and Tui the final investment decisions have been put back from June till later in the year, and this is a factor in the present share price.

In the case of Pike the commitment to develop is still slated for June 05, as announced in the latest Quarterly Report. However the company is in the middle of negotiating a number of contracts for mine construction and coal transport. There is no guarantee that these negotiations will be completed by June. The company has a fiducial responsibility to its shareholders to negotiate the most price competitive contracts for the project. If this means delays past June for the final development decision, well then so be it. This possible delay is reflected in the current share price.

Note also that my share price estimate was also made contingent (see my original posting on 23 April 2004) on a successful oil strike at Pukeko. This did not happen and the share price reflects this.

The current share price is certainly affected by the up-comming option conversion process, a fact that you have repeatedly, with great glee, referred to.

Digger’s competition was an attempt to value the company and the share price once the option process was completed. It certainly was not a competition to see how badly the share price would fare under the pressure of the option conversion process.

As Digger has mentioned, 30 June is not perhaps the best time to value the share, being as it is on the last day of the option conversion process.

A better time will be at the end of July or August when the option conversion process and related backwash are well out of the way.

W