Pumpkin Patch

[h2so4]

People rushing to buy kids clothing once the economic cycle turns?

Maybe, maybe not.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Based on H2so4 info PPL have 8.5 months stock.
More stock than I would have expected.
Stock turn about 1.4 times per year.
Opportunity for marketing and channel mgmt ...

[h2so4]

Stock turn maybe higher and inventory maybe normal but it's the profit margin that's tumbled.

[percy]

I think your statement is correct.It is allways very hard to buy against the trend,and often very costly.My posts were meant as a warning for those posters who may be unawere of the problems retailers are having at present.I would hold off buying until the tide turns.

Would appear the tide is still going out.The above was posted 5/08/10

[winner69]

Operating cashflow negative $20m ... hope they sell them of those huge stockpiles of clothes soon

Had to borrow $37m this half to fund all that working capital (a la stock) and to spend another $12m on growth .... and still another $8m paid out as divies.

One would hope that things improve fast or things could get a bit nasty here

Percy has been warning for some time that retail is not the place to be at the moment .... even the best retailer in NZ who has increased his cash in the bank to over $80m sounded some some pretty grim warnings the other day ... like using tipping point for retailers coming soon as petrol heads to $3.30 plus

[belgarion]

Downtrend continues ... Broker's valuations all well north of current SP ... Go figure :)

[winner69]

Downtrend continues ... Broker's valuations all well north of current SP ... Go figure :)

Sure is belg ... if Liz started another compo PPL would be first the pick

HLG were pretty gloomy this morning so maybe some of that sentiment will rub off on PPL

Mind you HLG said Aust was doing OK and PPL are over there .... would assume the rest of the world is hopeless for them .... and NZ .... no growth here for them for a while

And i believe that many have given up on them because of their past poor governence

Got to be worth something one day

[belgarion]

You're right W69. Placed target buys today to catch the turn around.

[JayRiggs]

You're right W69. Placed target buys today to catch the turn around.

Hey belg, how are those target buys coming along?
PPL operational update today. US stores closing and all sorts of other bad news.
I'm in pretty deep at an avg price of 1.49. Wonder what to do now...
Hahahaha, good ol pumpkins.

[Anna Naum]

Would have thought most of this was already in the shareprice. Below $1 it is a prime MBO/PE target.

[belgarion]

Hey belg, how are those target buys coming along?


They're going great :) ... The shareprice needs to rise before they fire and with today's 10% fall I get to set them down again :)

[winner69]

They're going great :) ... The shareprice needs to rise before they fire and with today's 10% fall I get to set them down again :)

So with a bit of luck you may never buy into this dog ....

[Balance]

So with a bit of luck you may never buy into this dog ....

You are losing it, W69!

Whatever happened to your trading instincts?

[winner69]

You are losing it, W69!

Whatever happened to your trading instincts?

I still interested .... money to be made here sometime ...... just Belg is waiting for it rise (from somewhere) before he buys and sort of knowing his target buying levels he might never get the opportunity

[belgarion]

Odd market reaction. Usually when a loss making unit (US Retail) that is losing 0.5 to 1.0 million per year is ditched for a reasonably small one-off loss of under 3 million the market sees this as a good thing. Sure less potential for groth but PPL is currently on a PE of just 8.6 so there's no growth priced in at that level.

Overall 2011 NP will be $12 mill and one-offs EBIT impact $11m ... "The changes announced today are expected to have a positive group EBIT impact
in 2012 of between $7m and $9m, and between $10m and $12m in 2013."

A very odd market reaction when PPL is on a PER of just 8.6! ... Could it be because (as I said before) some retailers just fade away?

[yabster]

yielding over 10% now too.

[belgarion]

discl: now hold, couldn't resist. ... I'm calling todays 98c trade the bottom for this year and next.

[percy]

You may enjoy article net result;malls going to the wall in www.theaustralian.com.au/business

[belgarion]

Interesting ... Last sale went thru at 1.09 leaving a big bid/offer spead of 1.03 to 1.09. VWAP shows 1.017. Belgie's VWAP = 1.00 ... Choice! Next buy point @ 95c with target buy @ 1.13. Been a while since I've been on the PPL share register.

[belgarion]

LOL ... climbing price throughout the day on small'ish volumes and a dumper at the close to ensure we ended where we started. Gotta love our thinly traded stocks.

[percy]

Anybody here still buying Pumpkin Patch goods for their family.? If so, was the store busy? Were the goods you purchased "on special" or full price? Did you buy from a Pumpkin Patch store, or was it from a department store.?

[buns]

I can't see Pumpkin patch lasting to tell the truth.. They needed to introduce Charlies and me (a low cost seller) before the Cotton on kids stores etc opened.

Pumpkin patch really only has its brand, and in these cases where the company suffers and the brand all of a sudden falls out of the conversation for a while.

Young families have it tough right now, luxury kids clothing is well down the list.

A recovery will come, but the break in between drinks will deter consumers from this old, once known brand.

just my thoughts

[macduffy]

I can't see Pumpkin patch lasting to tell the truth..

I wouldn't agree with that. Certainly, PPL is suffering at present but so is practically every other retailer here and overseas. PPL's overseas expansion has been unluckily timed, in retrospect, but the core NZ and Aust operations remain profitable and we're told that their online business is doing ok.

Much now depends on management proving that they are up to the challenge of shaping the business to meet changed conditions, especially the increasing emphasis on online shopping. Early signs are that management will be up to the task.

I'm not joining belgie in buying just yet but PPL is on my watchlist for what I think will be an eventual recovery.

[Blendy]

Anybody here still buying Pumpkin Patch goods for their family.? If so, was the store busy? Were the goods you purchased "on special" or full price? Did you buy from a Pumpkin Patch store, or was it from a department store.?

You make a really good point. I have young kids and still shop at PP. However, I only bother to buy things when they are on special (which seems to be every time I go in there). The stores are usually busier that the other kid's stores in the malls, so that's a good sign. Also, as far as mall-type kid's clothing stores go, PP still has the image of being the preferred brand, and if I was to give or receive a baby gift, PP items would be far more desirable than the other store's.

Although I must say I'm sure the quality of the fabrics and definitely shoes has gone down over the last couple of years....

There are always going to be new mothers that have to have their children dressed in the 'right' clothes, so I can't see Pumpkin Patch doing any worse than they are now, surely?

[buns]

This is all speculative right. But that is what these fourms are about.

My prediction is bold, and I hope it doesn’t come true because pumpkin patch has been a great NZ company.

I just think there environment has changed - The combination of more low cost clothes producers/retailers, and the new generation using avenues such as trademe, and harsh macro conditions affecting its customer base which aren’t going away.

Sit back for 2 mins, try and be independent or objective and have think where pumpkin patch has a competitive advantage. These guys never really had one for a long time, produced good returns which in turn has attracted new players.

Maybe as a business unit (PPL could become an attractive take over prospect) for another retailer where there distribution channels automatically expand and margins increase. As I said earlier, I think Pumpkin patch could have done better being a BU in its current structure, sitting beside another low cost kids clothing BU.

Stand alone high cost kids clothes retailer in its current structure? Long term - I don’t think so.

[buns]

You make a really good point. I have young kids and still shop at PP. However, I only bother to buy things when they are on special (which seems to be every time I go in there). The stores are usually busier that the other kid's stores in the malls, so that's a good sign. Also, as far as mall-type kid's clothing stores go, PP still has the image of being the preferred brand, and if I was to give or receive a baby gift, PP items would be far more desirable than the other store's.

Although I must say I'm sure the quality of the fabrics and definitely shoes has gone down over the last couple of years....

There are always going to be new mothers that have to have their children dressed in the 'right' clothes, so I can't see Pumpkin Patch doing any worse than they are now, surely?

Also

I see they have just opened a large store on the corner of Willis and Bond st in Wellington.

[macduffy]

Chalkie's article on PPL, first published yeterday.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/5177942/Patch-across-the-ditch-best-for-harvest

[h2so4]

Chalkie's article on PPL, first published yeterday.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/5177942/Patch-across-the-ditch-best-for-harvest

With the economy and consumer spending screwed things surely can get worse for ppl.

[belgarion]

With the economy and consumer spending screwed things surely can get worse for ppl.

Disagree ... It can't get any worse for PPL ... This is the bottom :)

[Blendy]

Disagree ... It can't get any worse for PPL ... This is the bottom :)

Love your optimism - I'm with you on this!

[h2so4]

I guess we all look at different things, and I'm not looking at bottoms:). I'm looking for the next period of growth.

At this point in time that just seems more than a few years away.

[moimoi]

Don't look too hard H2...or you'll be needing a day off.. ;-)

[Silverlight]

Agree with belg, chalkie touts closing all the UK stores!

16 of 41(?) are losing money and will close if they can't make money but that means 25+ are making money, why would you close the profitable stores.

Current 7 - 8 cent dividends, the market is pricing zero margin for any growth, when things go well in the UK.

Chalkie also mentions australia revenues dropping yet margins have improved since 6 months ago, go figure? getting worse or getting better?

Also says they need new blood, and mentions the long serving designers and compares this with the companies strategies? That makes no sense, the clothes designs while impacts sales can't change the cyclical environment.

Overall a poor quality article. Never held PPL but at these levels, the yield is attractive and you get growth for free.

[GR8DAY]

.......the divis are historical SILVERLIGHT, they may in fact be history (for a while anyway).....dont count on them continuing into the near and medium future.

[Silverlight]

Current divs sure, but profit for year end 30 June will still be $4m+ (normalised for ones offs you get 12m or 7+cents per share).

PPL's own forecast for year to Jun 12 is $15m+, EPS 10+cents plus. Past divs have been 75% payout so maybe they opt for a reduced div at full year 2011, but I would expect to see PPL paying out 6+ cents div for full year 2012.

There divs carry full imputation, so gross of 9% at $1, but by then though the stock will be back at $1.50 - $2.

[percy]

I word of warning.The stores are quiet.They are trying to unload stock.They are not making the sales.Yet they have large stores in expensive malls.Rent costs high,lease commitements on going,staffing costs high. Very high overhead business.Near impossible to cut costs when things go wrong,as they appear to.Extra debt at this time would appear foolish.

[h2so4]

Exactly right percy.

Just looking back over the half yearly report. Sales down 14%, inventory turnover down 20%, sales and admin expenses up .64% and the $20m reported operating cashflows were wiped out by a huge increase in inventory. It's no wonder they are closing stores.

[JayRiggs]

Price been rising lately, closed up at 1.13 today.
Seems to be a bit of buying interest, any explanation for this?

[Silverlight]

Price been rising lately, closed up at 1.13 today.
Seems to be a bit of buying interest, any explanation for this?

Oversold, great dividend yield, closing unprofitable stores, CEO buying 250k on market, what more do you need? ;)

[ratkin]

Price been rising lately, closed up at 1.13 today.
Seems to be a bit of buying interest, any explanation for this?

Silly people who think because its gone down its cheap. The buisness is not a good one imo
Too much competition , and they will even be competing against themselves when they launch their cheap range

[Anna Naum]

Price been rising lately, closed up at 1.13 today.
Seems to be a bit of buying interest, any explanation for this?

CHA takeover reminded a few that these guys might be on a few Intl operators radars

[lou]

PPL still downtrending but could be a good buy when it breaks out. One to watch.
PPL chart 3596

[belgarion]

Thr problem with you graph is that it shows price but not volumes. If you want a decent stake then action between 0.95 and current 0.87 has been thin indeed. discl: still accumulating and others are beating me to the trades.

[lou]

Thr problem with you graph is that it shows price but not volumes. If you want a decent stake then action between 0.95 and current 0.87 has been thin indeed. discl: still accumulating and others are beating me to the trades.

My graph did have volumes at the bottom.
Updated graphs:
3598
3599

[winner69]

Those red lines you drew on the chart suggests that PPL is definitely trending down .... bugger I nearly put PPL in Lizards stock picking compo but didn't think it was as bad a dog as the 5 I did pick

Belg building another pyramid ... so watch out for some real price action

[percy]

Those red lines you drew on the chart suggests that PPL is definitely trending down .... bugger I nearly put PPL in Lizards stock picking compo but didn't think it was as bad a dog as the 5 I did pick

Belg building another pyramid ... so watch out for some real price action

Looks more like he is digging a ditch.May still suit you for next year's comp.!!!

[belgarion]

Belg building another pyramid ... so watch out for some real price action

Thats the nature of a pyrimid ... The price comes to you. (If I were to invert the pyrimid then you may see some price action but for the moment I'm; and some others; are quite happy soaking whats available up).

[belgarion]

FY release date tomorrow. With the SP in its solid downtrend with only the (fool?)hardy like me buying the smaller volumes on offer I wonder if I'm doing the right thing at all. Just about every technical indicator says, "stay away", but I'm haven't. My average price is about 89cents (and falling). Some might say I'll look back in a few years and laugh at an entry price of 89c but at a current sp of 81c its ain't feeling to great as the very solid downtrend looks for support.

Liz, got a fundi value to give me a pick-me-up?

Mine's at 1.05 FY11 after cleanups and writedowns and 1.40 HY12.

(Just noticed PPL's jumped 7c - :) - the nature of big bid/offer spreads and thin volumes. Ho Hum ... :( ... current bid/offer a full 15cents :yikes: )

[Nigel]

Results out tomorrow. Up 12% today.
Does someone know something, or is there some wishful thinking?

[lou]

I think it is the big spread and low volume that has contributed to the price jump.

[winner69]

I think it is the big spread and low volume that has contributed to the price jump.

almost right .... but this is what happens when Belg is building his pyramid ... I warned you guys last week about this

[JayRiggs]

Result just out.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PPL/announcements/214251

Net profit down 50% odd percent, no dividend and CEO Maurice Prendergast has stepped down :(
Not sure what to make of this, I bought some at 1.49 a while back. I haven't been accumulating at these penny prices lately.
What do you guys make of this?

[belgarion]

almost right .... but this is what happens when Belg is building his pyramid ... I warned you guys last week about this

If I were to invert the pyrimid this might happen but a normal pyrimid just lets the price drop into each level.

The result:
- there we go "normalised" earnings 12 m - actually a loss of 1.8m!
- big cashflow deficit!
- No word on how the Charlie and Me brand is going
- big sales declines seen in FH largerly reverse in second half - [belgie breaths a big, big sigh of relief!]
- US exit costs in this year so books clean for next
- UK still losing money - I see an exit coming so costs of closure probably in next year too
- 15.6m of non-recurring reorganisation costs recognised this year
- Bank debt coming down by Jul 2012
- CAPEX - still investing for growth
- big drop in equity (us poor shareholders) - 36m due to FX at ballance date but now 17m better!
- No divi - focus on reducing bank instead - I'm okay with that - taxed divi vs cap gain - either's fine with me

Will mrkt like it? Nope. I doubt it. Will continue accumulating.

[JayRiggs]

Will mrkt like it? Nope. I doubt it. Will continue accumulating.

Ooooohh, really keen to know what Phaedrus would say to that!

[belgarion]

LOL Jay, We all know exactly what he'd say.

bid / offer down to 79 / 82 ... about where we were yesterday morning.

interestingly there's a fair bit of number crunching involved to understand where PPL actually is (rather than the spin of where they are).

[Blendy]

Not sure what to make of this, I bought some at 1.49 a while back. I haven't been accumulating at these penny prices lately.
What do you guys make of this?

Same here. I topped up a bit at 98c, but still I'm not in a very good place. Might just sit on them for ages and hope they eventually pick up.

[belgarion]

Talk about shonky reporting ....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/5691276/Pumpkin-Patch-profit-plunges
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10754700

... if you read either of the above PPL made a "annual net profit" of 12.6 mill ... Really?

Announcement reads ...

Pumpkin Patch Limited today reported its underlying profit before tax for the
year ended 31 July 2011 was $12.6m.

No wonder mum and dad investors get screwed! The primary news sources are in cahoots with the thieves and misfits :)

Bryan Gaynor on the matter: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/brian-gaynor/news/article.cfm?a_id=14&objectid=10749064

edited: Stuff has updated their link and they did it pretty quick. NZ Hearld one however remains wrong. Good on Stuff, shame on the NZ Herald.

[winner69]

Talk about shonky reporting ....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/5691276/Pumpkin-Patch-profit-plunges
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10754700

... if you read either of the above PPL made a "annual net profit" of 12.6 mill ... Really?

Announcement reads ...

Pumpkin Patch Limited today reported its underlying profit before tax for the
year ended 31 July 2011 was $12.6m.

No wonder mum and dad investors get screwed! The primary news sources are in cahoots with the thieves and misfits :)

Bryan Gaynor on the matter: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/brian-gaynor/news/article.cfm?a_id=14&objectid=10749064

Did you copy and paste correctly belg

The presentation says Underlying trading profit after tax $12.6m

Take into account all the crap and stuff and total result was a loss of just under $2m

All those crappy bits are non-recurring so why worry about them ... until the next disaster we have more non-recurring crap (or ongoing recurring crap)

Belg - you just get it - looking forward the base is $12.6m for this year (4.5 cents a share I think)

They will heaps when they increase their razor thin NPAT (before non-recurring crap) margin of 3.5%

They will make heaps when they reduce debt -- love the comment that net debt is lower than forecast but jeez it went up by $35m to $61m over the last 12 months (equity down to $32m as well)

And when they reduce that enormous pile of stock that is now worth $85m (sakes were $356m) the cash will start to roll in

When they get the admin costs down from the current $20m they will make even more

And now Prendergast has gone things might get going again - even though worried they have promoted from inside (the man in charge of those low margins and high stock levels taking over)

I still pissed I didn't put PPL into the Lizards NZX stock picking compo .... but on this years years and the prospects ahead a certainty for next year

No wonder you are pyramid building Belg .... this dog is about to turn .... cause it can't get any worse

[winner69]

Sorry Belg - you are right - the short ann does say before tax

Unless another secret set of books I am confused - the only consistent number that is right is they lost just under $2m .... even thougn if you look at the changes in equity there is another $34m reduction in equity not going through the P&L that clarifies why equity has fallen to $30m odd

And that stock figure is about 8 months stock - I thought the rag trade liked keeping stock levels down because of the changes in seasons .... jeez they still ahve last summers stock in stores .... or maybe seasonality doesn't matter in their business

[h2so4]

I'm with you winner "it cant get any worse", this is the bottom. (ha!)

Average stock turns down by 15%.

Profit margins plunge like an Acopulco cliff diver.

[belgarion]

No wonder you are pyramid building Belg .... this dog is about to turn .... cause it can't get any worse

Oh yes it can. But methinks some of the other big shareholders will step in way before that happens :) (you know, the ones that have made huge bucks running and then selling real retail / wholesale brands ... If I get a sniff that they're leaving then this ship is sunk already!)

[winner69]

Shoeshine in NBR got stuck into PPL this morning .... hoping that Rod and Jane really need to do something to stop this disaster continuing .... and noting that mark to market things throught he balance sheet knocked the best part of $40m out of shareholder equity which as I had pointed out before has fallen to $30m odd

More to come methinks ... Prendergast being replaced by the man who did the day to things wouldn't inspire punters either

Keep building that pyramid Belg .... that inevitable takeover/recovery will happen one day ... but at what price we ask

[belgarion]

"Shareholders funds at July were $32.5m (2010: $80.9m). The main driver of the
movement from last year was the non-cash reduction in the balance of the Cash
Flow Hedge Reserve caused by movements in exchange rates during the year. At
balance date the after tax mark to market losses on all foreign exchange
derivatives totalled $36.0m. However since balance date movements in exchange
rates have led to a $17.7m improvement in the after tax value of those
derivatives and a corresponding increase in total shareholders funds. "

So where are they at now as trhe NZD continues to tumble?

[belgarion]

Keep building that pyramid Belg ....

Nobody with any reasonable holding is selling and picking up the drips on market is just too expensive ...

[percy]

Still a big lack of customers in their shops.

[JayRiggs]

I've been wanting to accumulate some PPL for a while now, but have held off because it's been downtrending for some time and it's looking quite risky.
I'm quite new to technical analysis. What technical things do we look for before it's safe (or safer) to buy?
I see that the OBV has been sliding downwards for the past year.
Fundamentally this company is in a bit of a mess and I guess we won't get a clearer picture of things until the AGM, which I plan on going to.

Thanks to all!

[percy]

I've been wanting to accumulate some PPL for a while now, but have held off because it's been downtrending for some time and it's looking quite risky.
I'm quite new to technical analysis. What technical things do we look for before it's safe (or safer) to buy?
I see that the OBV has been sliding downwards for the past year.
Fundamentally this company is in a bit of a mess and I guess we won't get a clearer picture of things until the AGM, which I plan on going to.

Thanks to all!

JayRiggs. Try and visit a store.Used to be colourful,bright and busy.Go today,stores look flat,staff bored and no customers.When you see the shops looking exciting,full of customers waiting at cash desk,staff busy,then look to buy the shares.At present they just seem to be trying to clear over stocks.Just another rag trade retailer fighting to stay afloat.

[JayRiggs]

JayRiggs. Try and visit a store.Used to be colourful,bright and busy.Go today,stores look flat,staff bored and no customers.When you see the shops looking exciting,full of customers waiting at cash desk,staff busy,then look to buy the shares.At present they just seem to be trying to clear over stocks.Just another rag trade retailer fighting to stay afloat.

Thanks for your advice percy. Makes alot of sense. I didn't realise Pumpkin Patches were busier in it's heyday as you describe.
I walk by the Pumpkin Patch in Ponsonby quite often. Most of the time it's pretty empty and there have been "Sale" signs on the window ever since it opened earlier this yr. It's very rare to see someone walking out of the store with stuff they've bought. The Ponsonby one is probably a bad example, because that area doesn't have much foot traffic. Westfield Glenfield and Albany branches are pretty empty too. Westfield St Lukes had a few more people. The only busy Pumpkin Patch I've seen is the one in Dressmart. I overheard a couple in there saying "they opened a new Pumpkin Patch in Ponsonby!", "ooooh"... at least someone is excited... a tiny glimmer of hope.

PPL does seem like a value trap at the moment. Deteriorating fundamentals, deteriorating share price.
I'm quite keen to see what their plans are to turn this around. Surely they must have something. A brand new revolutionary line of kids clothes perhaps?

[belgarion]

What time are you guys visting the PPL stores? ... Don't forget their primary customer segments will be non-working people (mums and grannies?) so primary hours will be between 10am and 2pm, Mon to Fri ... outside these hours and weekends these same customers have other things they need to attend too, or can't use their senior citizen cards or it just too busy and hard with family in tow.

[percy]

JayRiggs,In their heyday you could walk around an empty Mall until you came to the Pumkin Patch store,which was bright,full of activity,happy customers buying nice children's clothing.Busy,busy store. Not today as you have found out for yourself.
Hold onto you money as turnarounds either do not work,or take a lot longer to work than anyone thought they would.
belgarion.Still quiet between 10am and 2pm weekdays.I can only speak for Christchurch Mall shops.

[percy]

Chalkie's article "Pumpkin Patch lands itself in forex pickle" in this mornings The Press makes for sober reading.

[traderdude]

Hey percy any link to the article? cheers

[Balance]

Suspect PPL may not be with us much longer ......

[belgarion]

Balance, you've been saying that for ages and yet they hang on ... but yes, very nervous times ... what are the big owners thinking?

[percy]

Hey percy any link to the article? cheers
try www.stuff.co.nz/business
then click onto opinion and headline pumpkin patch in foreighn exchange pickle should appear.

[belgarion]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/5773195/Pumpkin-Patch-in-foreign-exchange-pickle

[traderdude]

Legends, cheers Guys

[Xerof]

Not another company that badly needs assistance by way of an in-house Treasurer. These companies skimp on costs, and pay through the P/L big time because they assign this sort of policy setting and decision making to unskilled (in the ways of markets) CFO's and directors who wouldn't have a clue.

The issue here is not to fight with the FX rate, but to make sure their FX policy is aligned with WHAT THEIR COMPETITION is doing. It's like match racing - if you tack away looking for a good breeze, you could end up in a hole, and the competiton sails away from you.

As with the offer I made to NZOG a while ago, for a few hungie a year I am available (in the new year) :p:p

But as Balance says, perhaps it is too late

[h2so4]

Chalkie's view of PPL's hedging losses is opposite to management.

In the annual result announcement they said "At balance date the after tax mark to market losses on all foreign exchange derivatives totalled $36.0m. However since balance date movements in exchange rates have led to a $17.7m improvement in the after tax value of those derivatives and a corresponding increase in total shareholders funds."

Reading that you would think that things were now working in favour of PPl, however when it's reflected in the share price who knows.

[winner69]

Chalkie's view of PPL's hedging losses is opposite to management.

In the annual result announcement they said "At balance date the after tax mark to market losses on all foreign exchange derivatives totalled $36.0m. However since balance date movements in exchange rates have led to a $17.7m improvement in the after tax value of those derivatives and a corresponding increase in total shareholders funds."

Reading that you would think that things were now working in favour of PPl, however when it's reflected in the share price who knows.

Chalkie acknowledged that they were this $18m less worse off. All these gains/losses go through the balance sheet and you don't see the impact on the P&L anymore - as such probably no one bothers to worry about it as it doesn't affect eps or things like that - and the reason why shareholder equity came close to being wiped out

As Xweof points out the profitability impact is felt in their competitiveness - PPL are essentially buying stuff from at USD0.66 rate whereas their competitors are much better off. Chalkie pointed out The Warehouse are buying at 74-77 cents

Big problem for PPL is that they have the same problem through 2012 and 2013

Hell if balance is saying the end is nigh and if Chalkie says if they don't get some new blood to stop the rot they 'will be struggling to stay afloat' the inevitable looks like it is going to happen

[percy]

[


Big problem is a very real problem,and with the "brand" loosing its gloss,the challenges grow.

[h2so4]

I get it that they booked massive non cash losses due to hedging contract losses but it seems they have other hedging contracts that gained in value after balance date which created some sort of turn around?

My view of PPL is still unchanged - crap.

[winner69]

[


Big problem is a very real problem,and with the "brand" loosing its gloss,the challenges grow.


PPL was a great company that was exciting and vibrant and understood what their customers wanted and delivered the offer with enthusism etc etc ... but then they became a corporate and was run by MBA and professional who knew all about marketing and all about successful supply chains etc etc ... and got shareholders who demanded growth, increasing profits, greater efficiecies etc etc.

PPL might become great again --- if it gets rid of all those evil shareholders and goes private and does all those exciting things they used to do without that corporate collar around thir neck

You are right percy -- the brand is slowly being destroyed ... it needs to go back to its roots eh

[Balance]

PPL was a great company that was exciting and vibrant and understood what their customers wanted and delivered the offer with enthusism etc etc ... but then they became a corporate and was run by MBA and professional who knew all about marketing and all about successful supply chains etc etc ... and got shareholders who demanded growth, increasing profits, greater efficiecies etc etc.

PPL might become great again --- if it gets rid of all those evil shareholders and goes private and does all those exciting things they used to do without that corporate collar around thir neck

You are right percy -- the brand is slowly being destroyed ... it needs to go back to its roots eh

Bang on, W69.

Be very surprised if someone is not casting a close eye on this company.

[percy]

Bang on, W69.

Be very surprised if someone is not casting a close eye on this company.

Most probably their bankers.!!!!!!
Rod Duke who is a shareholder would have enough money in his Briscoes group to buy it,but whether he would want too remains to be seen.
I note a lot of rationalization going on in the rag trade in Aussie,I lot of people losing their shirts,with store closures and mergers,as stores fight for survival.
On going leases and staffing rights mean it is very difficult to reduce costs.Never heard of Westfield reducing a tennants rent.To remain in business you need to sell stock at a good margin.Unsold stock cloggs the system,adding to handling,storage,and other costs,and takes up room where new stock should be displayed.Paying too much for your stock reduces your margin and adds to your capital employed.Forever having sales undermines your premium brand.
Wish I could post a positive comment,but I can't.As you pointed out winner69,it was such an exciting vibrant company.All other retailers looked to them for ideas.

[Balance]

Most probably their bankers.!!!!!!
Rod Duke who is a shareholder would have enough money in his Briscoes group to buy it,but whether he would want too remains to be seen.
I note a lot of rationalization going on in the rag trade in Aussie,I lot of people losing their shirts,with store closures and mergers,as stores fight for survival.
Wish I could post a positive comment,but I can't.As you pointed out winner69,it was such an exciting vibrant company.All other retailers looked to them for ideas.

Music to the ears of private equity players.

Sadly for New Zealand, that's how they have been able to make mega dollars from New Zealand investors.

I look at Diligent and Feltex to name but two, and I think I know what's the big difference between them and most of NZ investors/shareholders.

[Silverlight]

Well insiders love these levels.

Maurice bought 250k at just over $1, new CEO bought some at $1.15 & last week some more at 79 cents. The FX losses are nothing new, were discussed in 2010 AR, and the levels they hedged at are market known, hence why we are under 80 cents, if the hedges were similar to WHS in mid 70's then the stock would be trading at $1.25.

In the end, they are at the premium end of the market, their clothes are higher quality, and they are still making cash, just on lower margins. When their margins were superior the stock was $5, good win buying at $5, and now its below $1 on lower margins, seems like good buying if you think Pumpkin Patch will exist in 5 years.

[winner69]

.....and they are still making cash, just on lower margins.

Free cash flow been negative the last 2 years according to the accounts

[Halebop]

Free cash flow been negative the last 2 years according to the accounts

Agreed, cashflow has been grim and will dictate the share price more than profitability. I'd expect, subject to modest profitability and heavy stock reduction that cashflow would improve this year - maybe $20m+. 'Normal' markets tend to respond positively to sound cashflow so would expect PPL to respond appropriately but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them go lower in between. This ranging bear market blows and at the moment so does PPL.

[belgarion]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10760113

Go the Blacks! Or would it have been better for the Ockers to have won?

[janner]

That calls for a compulsory gargle with Grandma's Lysol Belg..

[winner69]

That 68 at the mo must be an all time low ... even lower than the depths of despiar in the last GFC .... jeez what happens if there is another global crisis

Silverlight .... performance those insiders must be real proud off eh .... and loving it by buying more shares?

Never been cheaper .... and bugger bugger the NZD is going up again so the balance sheet not looking too good again

[belgarion]

Concur W69 ... Directors and management have a moral duty to pass comment on what's going on (or not going on!) ... One notes, by comparision, that TWR mngt has kept the market pretty well informed given the issues that they've had.

If it weren't for the ACC being there and increasing their stake (as they reported on the 21st of Oct), I'd be really, really panicky (as opposed to mildly freaked out!)

[winner69]

When things start looking bad - the colelctive sentiment of the market seems to be thinking this way - I always have a look at the good old Altman Z-score. been a trusty indicator in the past to assess the financial well being of a company - Feltex being a great example

From the last accounts PPL Altman Z-score comes in at 2.58 - according to Altman such a score means 'Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years of operations from the date of financial figures given."

Only time will tell whether Mr Altmans little ratio is a good indicator

[belgarion]

LOL W69, ... you said the same thing about HBY and I'm now sitting on 150% cap gain and a yield of about 15% ... I'd have thought you'd have given up with the Altman scoring by now ...

[winner69]

Good one Belg ... HBY at least faced up to their problems and got their house in order - and you were clever enough to recognise that effort

Do you see PPL doing the same? Doesn't seem to be much sign of them doing so eh

Maybe Mr Altman needs to reword his outlook to 'Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years unless they get their house in order "

I'd say Altman is right more than he is wrong .... 2.58 is bad but not always terminal .... if it was 1.8 it would be terminal

Hope you can make 150% out of PPL as well .... if they can get their house in order eh

[lou]

Still trending down

3696

[winner69]

Still trending down

3696

take it you haven't bought any yet lou .... but don't be too patient else belg might beat you to the cheap ones .... whatever that price is

[lou]

@winner69

Still have not picked up any. They have fallen a further 27% since my last post on the 5/9/11 so not disapointed about missing out to Bleg.

[belgarion]

Keep a close eye on that NZD ...

[winner69]

AGM - ' share price does not reflect the underlying value of the business' .... 'the market does not understand us' ..... 'will will fix that, and that process starts now'

A lot of good stories but you will have to wait until March to hear anything about how things are going (ie no guidance given)

So does this mean the shareprice will hang around these levels for some time yet?

[belgarion]

I always find such comments amusing as these will be the same people who support "markets" as always being right. (Okay, maybe I'm being too cynical).

Like any good fundi does, one studies the books and evaluates the macros, compares them to the SP and buys accordingly.

Personally, I think PPL is undervalued at current price but what would be fair value? Given the risk premium associated with most stocks at present, and PPL daft FX exposure, I suspect the big boys have little reason to sell at this price and the big boys who'd want to buy at this price can't find any big sellers so trade is many amoungst mums and dads and the belgarions of this world.

I suspect that once PPL mgt have lots of nice warm fuzzies to announce (backed up by hard facts!) they'll make a market announcement to that effect to "protect" the mums and dads from themselves. Basically, we'll not have to wait for March, I'd expect it late Jan or early Feb after the Christmas rush has flowed through.

[Blendy]

great comments, thanks for that Belgarion. I was wondering about a lot of what you've said myself, and it is good to see you have some good optimism :)

[belgarion]

Pumpkin Patch chief financial officer Matthew Washington said festive season trading had started "reasonably well" at the listed children's clothing retailer's stores on both sides of the Tasman.

"And we also get an extra Saturday this year, which is Christmas Eve, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10773982

Announcement mid-feb?

[winner69]

Belg ... wonder when their profit downgrade coming?

[belgarion]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10777680

If PPL managed to hold their margins (and didn't price themselves out of the market) then they should have some good news coming in the NZ segment ... Couple of big "ifs" tho ...

[Lizard]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10777680

If PPL managed to hold their margins (and didn't price themselves out of the market) then they should have some good news coming in the NZ segment ... Couple of big "ifs" tho ...

I would have thought you be more excited about HBY on the back of that article... footwear outlets up 9.2% over pcp is not to be sneezed at!

(One thing going against PPL is the return to declining total birth numbers in NZ)

[belgarion]

I would have thought you be more excited about HBY on the back of that article... footwear outlets up 9.2% over pcp is not to be sneezed at!

Thanks Liz. I was trying to keep that bit quiet ... ;)

[belgarion]

Interesting cross coming up ... 10 day MA with 50 MA ... Significance? Hasn't happened since PPL was at 1.80 !!!

Not a TA but other indicators seem to be indicating an bottom but I guess they'll be plenty of time (and volume?) to get in after the HY in earley March

disclaimer: Belgarion's use of 10/50 Day MAs is an attempt at humour and it should not be construed that such indicators reflect either his TA style or his FA style, or an indication to buy or sell, or indeed that two squiggly coloured worms hovering around and above a jagged south east line can, or should, be construed as anything beyond two squiggly coloured worms hovering around a jagged south east line.

[SparkyTheClown]

Uk operations being put into administration. Expectations that the stores will be wound up in the UK. More bad news being forecasted.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PPL/announcements/218674

Watch the disaster unfold today - 70c yesterday, I expect 60c today when the markets open in 10 minutes.

[winner69]

Administartion should save shareholders a few bucks .... easier to get out of leases and screw employees

Not many NZ listed companies con lay claim to putting operations in 2 different countries into bankruptcy / administartion .... great effort and well done for a bunch of cowboys taking the world by storm

Bit of an embarrasment really .... but who cares

[SparkyTheClown]

I spoke to soon - PPL is up six cents!

Says something when the market rewards a company for such bad publicity, but in retrospect, by at least cauterizing the wound they will stop the bad news on the balance sheet once the mop up costs are taken care of.

Still, I have little confidence in this company. It's going to need a LOT of good news to convince me this company is going to grow well.

[belgarion]

Sparky, The market already had this news factored in. The fact that it wasn't worse news and they are dumping loss making parts of the business means the profits will be larger than if they had let it drag on. Hence the price rise. In essence the market has been "punishing the company" when the price was 5.00 some 5 years ago and then again when the price was 2.20 about this time last year.

The market looks forward and doesn't like risk. You should too ... Forgive the past and look to see if this is the beginning to a new uptrend towards 1.10 and beyond ... (ps. Oz sales may be a bit slacker than I was anticpating 3 months ago).

editted: big bid/offer spread ... will be interesting to see at what point decent volumes start trading at ... (belgie's imfamous evil grin is all over his face as he contemplates the pyrimid below)

[percy]

Gee Whiz makes me wonder how they stay afloat.If they can turn this around and someone can make money out of it I wish them well.
Can't see any Aussie or Kiwi landlords giving them a break.Also having to order stock so far in advance must make this business very difficult to have the right level and mix of stock.Very interested to note they at least see the value of internet sales.This may be their future.
Has the look of a company that has been places,rather than a company going places.

[winner69]

Pumpkin in great company ..... Kodak in Chapter 11 .... at least PPL do it a bit at a time

[janner]

At least Kodak have some I P to sell..

[Silverlight]

The sales that you see here and online reflect the macro environment, clothes are higher quality than competition, durable last longer etc (that is the view from my two sisters, and 4 sister in-laws).

Look at the owners of PPL, there will be no takeover by outsiders, maurice 12%, duke 10%, cameron 10%, acc 15%.

3 cent div this year, expected to be 7 cent this coming year (10 cents with imputation), still a profitable business, had a rough time, I bought first lot at $1, second lot at 60 cents, so average price 80 cents. Look at the relints, CEO, director, officer, all buying, insiders no more than you, why throw away their own hard earned cash. Check SSH's ACC increasing their stake.

As Belg said, they highlighted that they would close the UK stores that they could not turn around, therefore earnings going forward become more transparent, and profitable, risk off with uncertainty removed. If the 7 cent div is confirmed, 1.50 by year end.

[belgarion]

As the price rockets upwards ... Belgie looks down at his pyrimid and at this height, wishes it was bigger ... ;) ... If SliverLight is right it'll look way small at the height of 1.50 ...

W69, Time to average up ... what say you ... ;)

[winner69]

As the price rockets upwards ... Belgie looks down at his pyrimid and at this height, wishes it was bigger ... ;) ... If SliverLight is right it'll look way small at the height of 1.50 ...

W69, Time to average up ... what say you ... ;)

Time to average up? Sure is Belg now a lot of risk has been eliminated

One problem with averaging up is that you lose skite factor like janner and his $1.80 NPX shares ....ever mind they'll will be profitable in due course eh ... $s matter more than %ages

Your (inverted) pyramids worry be though Belg ..... do you ever get to the stage when you complete one pyramid (an standard one with the broad base and pointing top) and then start building an inverted one on top of that .... and end up with an inverted pyramid sitting on a standard pyramid

Googled you methodology but no joy .... this was the best I found (even if a bit unstable looking)

[belgarion]

Does this help?

Each area inside the pyrimid is divided by the price lines represents an increasing larger sum of money. The height and base width reflect, respectively, a) the range I'm happy to start buying into and how big I expect the range to be and b) the base reflects just how much dosh I have allocated to a strategy. To visualise it in action, imagine the U-shape of a bottoming process overlaid over each triangle. ... The inverted pyrimid, like the pic you posted, comes when I have an allocated sum left to spend and have to scramble to spend it before the price gets above the entry point. I only very rarely buy into stocks once the bottom feeding is complete. Note this is a bottom feeding technique not a buy and hold strategy like you'd apply to MFT or POT.

[janner]

Thanks for that Pyramid posting Belg. Have not used that before.. May even help me skite some more :-)0

Hey Winner the 1.80 is only my original purchase price..

The 94 % now held of original quantity... 25% Sold and rebought is at a price that is a real skite..

But that is what it is all about ..

Thanks again Belg..

[belgarion]

A complete standoff with zero trade thus far today with bidders at 80 and sellers at 83 ... and the result not out for another months or so (14th March). ... Time to start a rumour or two ... Here mine: A friend of the daughter of the tea lady said they had muffins at the last executive meeting.

[Blendy]

well I've been trying my best to buy Pumpkin Patch clothing when needed, but it's pretty impossible to pass up the JK sales with everything in store $15 or less....

[Silverlight]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?

[winner69]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?

You know the answer silver ..... of course it is in an uptrend .... 60 to 80 last few months not too bad eh .... thats what happens when pyramids get built

[SparkyTheClown]

I had an interesting chat with my wife the other day about Pumpkin Patch.

She doesn't buy clothing for our children from there anymore. She used to buy a lot of the baby/infant clothes there back in 2006/2007, but feels the Pumpkin Patch brand is neither here nor there anymore. It's not upmarket enough for her, nor is the pricing good enough to be deemed worthy for opportunistic buying.

JKs and other brands seem to do a better job of pitching for the cheaper/budget end, and she would rather buy "labels" like Ralph Lauren and Baby Gap through the internet from the USA (ship to friends and they bring to us).

"It's just not a decent brand anymore, not like it was when our first boy was born"

Now, one housewife doesn't make for a comprehensive analysis on the woes of PP, but I wonder if their problem is that of marketing and product positioning?

I was appalled to take a wander around David Jones and Myers in Melbourne in October last year, and see the almost contemptible way that PP products were being arranged in the children's wear sections. (Racks under the elevator, tucked around the side, while the Ralph Lauren and other megabrands got placement in the high pedestrian areas).

[SparkyTheClown]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?


I'm not a broker nor a quant (I am firmly in the value investor camp), but my reading of the major indicators from yahoo Finance's technicals on 29th Feb are thus:

- 50SMA/200EMA - bearish sentiment is narrowing. Still a while from a positive crossover
- MACD - about to hit a positive crossover
- Relative strength is low, on 60
- Williams R suggests the stock is a overbought, on 20
- Bollinger bands are narrow, suggesting a lack of volatility. Shareprice at the top of the BBand, maybe suggesting some short term profit taking to occur.

[iceman]

I had an interesting chat with my wife the other day about Pumpkin Patch.

She doesn't buy clothing for our children from there anymore. She used to buy a lot of the baby/infant clothes there back in 2006/2007, but feels the Pumpkin Patch brand is neither here nor there anymore. It's not upmarket enough for her, nor is the pricing good enough to be deemed worthy for opportunistic buying.

JKs and other brands seem to do a better job of pitching for the cheaper/budget end, and she would rather buy "labels" like Ralph Lauren and Baby Gap through the internet from the USA (ship to friends and they bring to us).

"It's just not a decent brand anymore, not like it was when our first boy was born"

Now, one housewife doesn't make for a comprehensive analysis on the woes of PP, but I wonder if their problem is that of marketing and product positioning?

I was appalled to take a wander around David Jones and Myers in Melbourne in October last year, and see the almost contemptible way that PP products were being arranged in the children's wear sections. (Racks under the elevator, tucked around the side, while the Ralph Lauren and other megabrands got placement in the high pedestrian areas).

Sparky I have recently had a very similar conversation with my wife when we went to buy clothes for a newborn grandson. We walked around the store for about 5 minutes and then left disappointed and empty handed. We ended up buying all the clothes at JKs.

[winner69]

who owns this jk's?

they sound pretty switched on

[CJ]

Sparky I have recently had a very similar conversation with my wife when we went to buy clothes for a newborn grandson. We walked around the store for about 5 minutes and then left disappointed and empty handed. We ended up buying all the clothes at JKs.We too are in the market for some infant clothing. Have gone into PP a couple of times and walked out empty.

[SparkyTheClown]

who owns this jk's?

they sound pretty switched on

Good question. A quick google search suggests the original owners are Lisa and ben Sproat, who had Ezibuy come in as a 50% partner a few years back.

[Hoop]

Could I request some TA analysis from someone on the potential start of a new uptrend?

Hi Silver ...uptrend? or did you mean if it is the start of a primary uptrend (bull market cycle)?. The Coppock indicator (not shown on chart below) is just at this moment of time starting to swing upwards from well below zero hinting a possible change from bear market cycle to Bull market cycle...It's still early days but it's a slight ray of sunshine for PPL

...but there's bad news....the immediate future looks cloudy with diverging indicators signaling this uptrend off the bottom is weakening and losing momentum... The divergences signal that the 78 - 80c Primary support may not hold which could put this uptrend at risk.

A positive viewpoint is PPL could be having a healthy breather on its good run upwards..and the price may pull back to test the uptrend line then move up again.....so those investors who haven't been scared off by the divergences and taken their profits should now focus on the support line and the up trend line below it.

The chart is a couple of days out of date... I would like to see the up to date Bollinger bands ..to see if the trend altering squeeze (purple arrows) has ended...Will know by the end of the weekend by that time the free Yahoo feed will be up to date

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPL29022012.png

[Hoop]

............The chart is a couple of days out of date... I would like to see the up to date Bollinger bands ..to see if the trend altering squeeze (purple arrows) has ended...Will know by the end of the weekend by that time the free Yahoo feed will be up to date.

No point for me to spend time to update the chart....PPL has been flat lined for a month now...As of Friday The Bollinger Bands are still tight and squeezing so expect a trend to emerge. The indicators still show weakness.

[belgarion]

Wednesday 14 March 2012 ... All will become clear.

[SparkyTheClown]

Genuinely hope that this company, which used to be one of NZ's finest retail stories, has some good news to report. I'm still to shy too put a dollar in though. I just don't know what it is they do that is far better than any other children's clothing retailer.

[macduffy]

I just don't know what it is they do that is far better than any other children's clothing retailer.

More stores so better coverage; more marketing - do we ever hear about Just Kids or T and T?; listed company profile; but basically just the biggest fish in a pond of tiddlers.

Doesn't mean that they're any better or more profitable, though!

[SparkyTheClown]

Some news - Pumpkin Patch have signed up some new alliances in Mexico and the Middle East.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PPL/announcements/220383

[JayRiggs]

Wow. Big jump in share price recently. Huge profit loss as expected, but markets seemed to like the increase in revenues. Still good buying at 90c?

[SparkyTheClown]

Jay, you would be braver than me. I'd rather put my money into Fisher and Paykel as a deep value play.

Mind you, those who saw PPL as "de-risked" back in January when they were 62-65c are now laughing.

[belgarion]

As the price rockets upwards ... Belgie looks down at his pyrimid and at this height, wishes it was bigger ... ;)

Divies likely to be re-established EOY ... Likely yeild looks okay on my average price ... The increase in sales is good because as consumer confidence returns they'll be subject to increasing margins ... ;)

[POSSUM THE CAT]

belgarion will they still exist at the end of year. Not likely IMHO.

[Silverlight]

belgarion will they still exist at the end of year. Not likely IMHO.

Interested to know what your opinion is based on Possum?

They have booked their $35m losses for the first half, no more loss making divisions, the share price is up almost 50% off its lows, they will likely make $13m profit in the 2nd half, wholesale revenue is up over 42%, already had a fully imputed 3 cent div this year, and while no interim, they may still pay 3 cents at full year.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Silverlight I have been saying this is a cr*p investment for about 4 years now the moneyied people I know have been saying their product was over priced rubbish for years now & sold out long before that. Just the same as I have been saying about F&P appliances. Every 3 months or so they come out with a new announcement that is going to turn things around. they have never succeeded. And in my opinion they never will.

[Blendy]

Pumpkin patch is having a nice jump today - up 7c to $1.05!

[Silverlight]

That 68 at the mo must be an all time low ... even lower than the depths of despiar in the last GFC .... jeez what happens if there is another global crisis

Silverlight .... performance those insiders must be real proud off eh .... and loving it by buying more shares?

Never been cheaper .... and bugger bugger the NZD is going up again so the balance sheet not looking too good again

29/12/2011 Bruce Walkley 14k @ 0.65
22/12/2011 Bruce Walkley 10k @ 0.65
13/12/2011 Bruce Walkley 26k @ 0.6269
20/10/2011 ACC 1.1m @ 0.74
4/10/2011 Neil Cowie 12k @ 0.7971
10/08/2011 ACC 295k @ 0.90
5/07/2011 Neil Cowie 17k @ 1.1541
23/06/2011 Maurice Prendergast 250k @ 1.04


Mostly good buying, follow the insiders to greater profits.

[belgarion]

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3050582

Great story! But we'll have to wait until 2014 to see what it adds to the bottom line.

editted: Bruce Walkley must be kicking himself! No insider trading there. :)

editted: Crumbs! The top of my pyrimid looks a long way down from the heady heights we've hit today!

[winner69]

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3050582

Great story! But we'll have to wait until 2014 to see what it adds to the bottom line.

editted: Bruce Walkley must be kicking himself! No insider trading there. :)

editted: Crumbs! The top of my pyrimid looks a long way down from the heady heights we've hit today!

Could be a game changer eh Belg

On the subject of Amazon here is an interesting article
http://motherjones.com/politics/2012/02/mac-mcclelland-free-online-shipping-warehouses-labor

Love it ... rhe rich making moey out exploiting the needy

[belgarion]

Give the two big holders with about 10% each in the mix I'll not be supprised if PPL just rockets away from here ... Did a bit of research on these Amazon tie ups and you'll be amazed at how profitable they can become for brands!

[janner]

I have Duke and Cameron on 16% and Montani 20%..

Don't know if that make a difference one way or the other.

Worth a shot purely as a Spec.. ..

[janner]

Opps.. that is mill shares.. Not % .. My mistake.. Still worth watching though..

[belgarion]

So the ACC has increased their stake to 9% ... Gives some comfort to Belgie that I've been doing the right thing. I wonder what the ACC's average price of their 9 per cent is?

[Hoop]

So the ACC has increased their stake to 9% ... Gives some comfort to Belgie that I've been doing the right thing. I wonder what the ACC's average price of their 9 per cent is?

Hate to be your comfort breaker Belg..
I know ACC watched PPL fall from 2.30 and 8 months later bought into the still ongoing downtrend (an investor No No!!:t_down: ) ACC went from 5% to 6% paid about 1.40 then watched their entire PPL asset fall to 90c something....then!!! lesson still not learn't :sleep: in Aug 2011 bought more at about 95c (holding 6.3% incr to 7.3%) and ..watched them fall in price again :(......lesson learn't this time???:)...nah!!:p in Oct 2011 they bought more probably about at 75c (holding from 7.4% to 8.9%) then watched that investment sour by 20% :( until the bottom at 58c...Then my ACC levee's went up due to tough economic times.......then the good news happened:t_up:!! well sort of :mellow:..PPL rocketed back up.. it doubled in price :t_up::D...so those catching the falling dagger investments looked like it paid off:cool:..Nah!!! the TA sell signals reappearred around the $1.00 mark and ACC haven't off loaded some of their significant % holding.

Latest PPL price 94c up 1c.

Hint...TA buy signals appearred Jan 2012 at 70c

[belgarion]

Thanks for the blow-by-blow Hoop. :) ... That why I said: I wonder what the ACC's average price of their 9 per cent is? ... I'd love to know as I'm pretty sure I'm going to beat it by a mile!