Google IPO

[Risk]

will any of you be buying into Google?

many people think it will be overpriced (including buffet), and I definetely agree.

However, I also think that initially the only way it will go is up.
Everyone uses google, and the hype of this huge IPO will ensure that mass histeria gives it a lot of momenum to start with.

millions of dollars will be made and lost on this one.

[willy_wonker]

I thought we learnt something from the 1997 tech crash?

Maybe some people have short term memory lost.

I am a fan of google and think is the best search engine around, but paying over $20 billion for a website is out of this world. Prefer to buy Ebay instead. I suppose you have to look at the historicals for Yahoo to see where google will go.

[stormrose]

Google is the biggest but the IPO is overhyped. Maybe one for the stags.

The difference between '97 and now is that Google is already a going concern. Loads of those '97 companies were all dot, no com.

[Gryffyn]

It's not 20billion for a "website", it's for a business.

Gmail and other initiatives may make it one of the major business players on the net.

It'll probably be overpriced as to the hype but one day the ultimate merger with Amazon may yet occur - it will be the Wallmart of the net!

THE KING says NO, NO;)

[Placebo]

Can't believe this is even being discussed here. Clearly some people have short memories.

The market leader? For the moment. Yahoo was not so long ago.

I love their search engine but no way to a buy-in.

[Risk]

Maybe I should clarify that Im am staying well away from the Google IPO...

but I thought it was worthy of discussion considering that it is a HUGE IPO, and will affect the markets once it starts trading.

Google is definetely more than just a website/search engine...and they are now big enough that they can be almost anything they want to be.

[MeNoBatty]

For gamblers only. Some powerfull players want to knock them off but the brand they have built is fantastic. Who knows which way this one will swing.

Will be watching the pricing mechanism with interest though. But i cant see the auction method taking off.

[Capitalist]

What does Google actually produce? When I first heard of this I thought WTF? The fact that it is listing is a sure sign to stay away. Another one for the sheeple so others can sell out. Baaaa...

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

What does Google actually produce? When I first heard of this I thought WTF? The fact that it is listing is a sure sign to stay away. Another one for the sheeple so others can sell out. Baaaa...

They produce Service plus Software Applications with Intellectual Properties that is hard to beat by other competitors. They have been profitable for many years without even really going commercial. If they did, you would know what it was when you first heard of it. They have monopoly power in certain areas like Microsoft had in the Office software market. And they may do as well as Microsoft by leveraging that.
Google is doing nothing similar to those eCom start-up companies that caused the tech disaster. Most people didn't really understand the technology bubble and think avoiding tech stocks is smart. In fact, anybody who has bought some tech stock in the US market a year ago should easily have more than 100%+ profit by now.
How does people join the IPO outside US?

[$imon]

Hey guys, some minor differences to the tech stock boom with this one. They are actually making a profit!!! And doubling it every year for the past couple. Question is can they continue this trend

[winner69]

From CNN Money

The ABCs of a unique IPO

The hottest tech IPO in years will be run as a "Dutch Auction."
April 29, 2004: 10:58 PM EDT
By Les Christie, CNN/Money contributing writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Couldn't get in on the Netscape IPO? Missed out on Microsoft? Got frozen out of taking a plunge on eBay? Now there's Google.

After months of speculation, the company announced on Thursday that it is going public.

According to its filing, Google seems willing, eager even, to start off life as a publicly traded company on the right foot, hoping to steer clear of some of the sweetheart dealmaking that characterized the last wave of go-go IPOs.


Instead, Google plans an auction of its shares to raise up to $2.7 billion; a process open to all bidders.

A spokesperson from underwriter Credit Suisse First Boston declined comment, but here's how the filing describes the process for buying shares in the auction:


Open an account with one of the two underwriters, CSFB or Morgan Stanley.


You must obtain a prospectus detailing the investment's risks, as well as an underwriter's account eligibility and suitability requirements. This will be available electronically, according to the company.


After receiving the prospectus and sometime before the auction, bidders must obtain a "unique bidder ID." Bidder IDs will not be available after the bidding begins.


Once you qualify, you're able to bid when the auction starts. The bid you make must include the number of shares you want and the price you're willing to pay for them. You may bid below the price range if you believe that there'll be lower demand than has been speculated. And you can also bid higher if you think there'll be more.

The final IPO price will be determined after the auction closes. The underwriters will calculate it by gathering all the bids and calculating the cut off point at or above which all the shares available can be sold.

Say Google settles on an allocation 150 million shares, and it receives bids for one billion at a range of prices. Only the highest bids adding up to 150 million shares will count as winning bids.

The IPO price will equal the lowest price bid on any of those 150 million shares. The price all bidders pay will be the IPO price -- even if they had bid higher.

So it seems that you may be able to buy shares of Google, but should you?

Ideally, the auction process enables sellers to price the issue "right." That is, its price should reflect the reasoning of thousands of investors who will determine for themselves how much they are willing to pay for a share.

This type of auction should cut down on the huge run-up in share price experienced during the first days of trading experienced by other tech IPOs during the 1990s.

So bid on shares if you believe in the company -- remembering, of course, that few companies make it from start-up to titan without experiencing big setbacks along the way. But don't count on being able to flip your shares for a large gain the day after the IPO.

[communist]

Not sure if it's already been covered but the IPO is only open to americans anyway. So no real choice. The bidding system is only really good for educated investors and most people will end up overpaying.

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN


quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

What does Google actually produce? When I first heard of this I thought WTF? The fact that it is listing is a sure sign to stay away. Another one for the sheeple so others can sell out. Baaaa...

They have monopoly power in certain areas like Microsoft had in the Office software market. And they may do as well as Microsoft by leveraging that.


I dont agree. Google and Yahoo are the same and a competitor. Just like hotmail and any other email. One can easily set up a search enigine with similar service to compete with Google. The only advantage Google has is the speed in which it can search and the and the hits rating. Speed and hits rating is the key. What is so hard about copying that?

[Cooper]

As MR. Wonka said....new technology change is so swift that google may find themselves losing their #1 position very soon... I wouldn't buy because the only thing that would make me buy is Google are leading AT THE MOMENT... possibility of new technology, new competition and the fact that the shares are going to be highly priced means the risk is huge.

[Gryffyn]

WW - it's not just the speed etc. It's the patented algorithms that got the founders their Phds along with the fact that they are the most trusted search engine. Yes, a lot of goodwill that another start-up cannot just replicate. Google got where they are by not being like other search engines and they got there very quickly.

I will not be subscribing to the IPO but a lot of the negativeness on this thread is not based on facts. Google is a going concern with an opportunity to capture huge market share in other areas. How much it is worth I wouldn't want to say.

[Risk]

once their Gmail service gets going, potentially their advertising income from it could be huge.
they also have very innovative research/ideas http://labs.google.com/

if it was going cheap, i'd be buying...but the interest worldwide will mean that this IPO wont be cheap.

[MeNoBatty]

Google also has the opportunity to be overtaken easily. All of their products are easily substituted for other company's products at no cost or pain. I can easily search on Yahoo or open a hotmail account for free and almost instantly. Advertisers will switch equally as fast. Comparing them to Microsoft is comparing apples & oranges. I cannot switch operating systems without a lot of heartache and cost. Anyone subscibing in the IPO is betting that Google will continue to maintain its dominance in the long term. History would suggest otherwise.

[Cooper]

I agree... no "lock in" effects of using google... if yahoo run a better service people will switch in an instant. Google's market is seriously competitive, with technology changing at a rate above that historically expected... therefore as far as I'm concerned if, as MeNo Batty has said people are buying in expecting google to maintain their present market dominance they either know something I don't or they are prospecting for fool's gold.
Add to that this may be the best advertised IPO for this year... how much will that drive the price beyond respectable levels?

[The BOWMAN]

First common misconception: Google is like Yahoo. I think it is pretty obvious they are not similar by just comparing their homepages. It is the way they doing the search (algorithm) which is the key. And believe me it is not a easy task to come up with a super efficient algorithm better than Google's. It could take several decades in fact. This is why most software applications provide search functionality buying 3rd party search engines rather than writing their own. Yahoo may eventually end up buying Google search engine if they want people continue visiting their page. (I haven't been using Yahoo for ages)
Second common misconception: Google is just for Internet. People did not realize there is no differece between searching a document on the internet and searching a piece of information on the company computer network. The same Internet search engine is used by many software applications have nothing to do with the Internet.

It is hard to imagine how important Search is to many people in the world. And they are willing to pay a price for it!

[MeNoBatty]

It could take a decade or it could take a couple of months. This is a super hot space, $$$ are flowing in from advertisers, and every one has realised it. Microsoft and Yahoo are spending billions on search.

Remember Netscape? They were number one, until the big boys caught up.

Tread carefully, my friend.

[winner69]

Google shares could be as much as US$135 - valuing Google at more than US$35 billion - a pe of 329

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040726/tech_google_ipo_7.html

[Steve]

Sorry guys, but I must quote Tim Preston/ASB Securities here: "Good, attractively priced IPOs will go out the door. There is huge demand for them."[:p]:D;)

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


Google shares could be as much as US$135 - valuing Google at more than US$35 billion - a pe of 329

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040726/tech_google_ipo_7.html



Yeah, investors are falling over themselves...I wonder how long it will be before reality sets in Winner [xx(].

[Futurz]

Interesting article I found...

RealMoney by TheStreet.com
How Google Has Ruined Its IPO Deal
Tuesday July 27, 8:58 am ET
By James J. Cramer, RealMoney.com Columnist


Someone has to say it, might as well be me: If you wanted to do everything you could to kill the Google deal, if you wanted to do everything you could to be sure that you generated the worst deal ever, you would do exactly what Google's done. Let me count the ways.
First, you buck the system, which had finally gotten a lot of the kinks out of it, and make sure that the thing's done Dutch. I know the bonds are used to Dutch auctions, but the unsophisticated public sure isn't. Start the Dutch revolution without me.

Second, you set the price at a level that is the most forbidding to the most people: north of $100. What the heck does that prove? That you intend to be the next Berkshire Hathaway?

Third, you talk about shareholder democracy but then you do the single most anti-democratic thing possible: issue two classes of stock.

Fourth, you wait until the dog days of summer to do the deal when no one's around anyway.

Fifth, you show total contempt for all of the institutions that, like it or not, represent most of the buyers out there, especially now that you price the deal at $100 a share.

Look, I know the process from 1998-2000 was deeply flawed. There was spinning going on, and friends and family and lots of laddering and all sorts of evil that since has been erased or silenced. The main flaw with the system, though, was that you couldn't reset demand on the fly to make it so that there was some sort of elasticity when buyers came in. The underwriters always blamed the SEC for that. If that was the real problem, let's deal with it. But this deal, I mean, can you say fiasco?

In six months, Google's gone from a company everyone wants a share of to perhaps the single-most scorned entity I can recall. Right out of the chute! Amazing.

I repeat: What a fiasco! What a blown opportunity. What a shot-in-the-foot moronic way to go about ruining what could have been a definite shot in the arm for this horrid market.

There. Now I feel better.

[winner69]

Hasn't hit US$300 yet but got pretty close

Suppose GOOG is so good that it will by $500 by Xmas

[zyreon]

it's been goin like crazy over the past month

every analyst and his dog has been upgrading their valuations to circa $300

500 by xmas? ah dont thenk sooo

then again it has a close-to-monopoly status in it's market...

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist


quote:Originally posted by winner69


Google shares could be as much as US$135 - valuing Google at more than US$35 billion - a pe of 329

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040726/tech_google_ipo_7.html



Yeah, investors are falling over themselves...I wonder how long it will be before reality sets in Winner [xx(].


Google share price hits high, now receding

New York, NY, Jun. 8 (UPI) -- Shares of U.S. Internet search engine Google Inc. have risen so much the company is now worth some $80 billion.

Google shares reached $293 on the Nasdaq Tuesday, making the company worth more than Time Warner, the world's biggest media company with a value about $78 billion, the BBC reported Wednesday.

Google's popularity with investors is surprising, in part, because its annual sales are just $3.2 billion contrasted to Time Warner's $42 billion.

Also, the company offered its shares to the public just 10 months ago.

Some analysts believe the premium being offered for Google is warranted given the company's future earnings prospects. Most companies buying advertising on Google are profitable.

Wall Street, however, may be rethinking its euphoria after Tuesday's share price run-up. By late morning Google shares had fallen 3.36 percent to $283.

Reality is a funny thing ;)

[Placebo]

Strange isn't it. I thought we'd seen the end of this tech stock euphoria back in 2001. Well done to those who bought in the IPO, now sitting on a nice fat profit.

Google's biggest challenge now is managing its success and the tall poppyitis that is already emerging. It seems you can still be too successful (at least in the eyes of some).

[Gryffyn]

I think google will settle for being a too successful tall-poppy rather than a whining wannabe.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Hasn't hit US$300 yet but got pretty close

Suppose GOOG is so good that it will by $500 by Xmas


....only a year out was I .... $500 today

Market cap now more than $150 billion

[ratkin]

http://www.live.com/

Is considered by many to be a better search engine, many net types shy away from the big boys, look how many students etc hate microsoft. Google will go the same way

[gamerice]

google is not just a search engine...
they have the resource/capacity/potenttial to be the next microsoft in this internet era, (just like microsoft grow and dominated the desktop environment), google is leading revolutions in the internet space (in terms of providing unique services etc)

i guess not many of you come from a software background...
but anyway, i agree that the p/e is insane..
but again, the market is always right, right?

[Caesius]

quote:http://www.live.com/

Is considered by many to be a better search engine, many net types shy away from the big boys, look how many students etc hate microsoft. Google will go the same way

live.com is Microsoft - the Windows Live logo sorta gives it away.