Poll: Buying? Selling? Holding? Cash? in current market update

[STRAT]

Hope you dont mind Tommy but I thought it would be interesting to see if sentiment has changed since you posted this poll one week ago.

[Halebop]

Good idea. I've remained in the cash camp.

[Year of the Tiger]

"I voted for "Runnin' for da hills", although that is not altogether true.
I cashed up about 60% of my holdings late last year and paid a good dollop off my mortgage. That is the bit that keeps me sane... :D
YOTT"

I'm feeling quite cosy just now. I certainly have no regrets at running with my gut feeling pre-Xmas.

Most of the shares I still hold have had a bit of a beating but as yet, nothing I can't cope with. So it's still steady as she goes.
Cheers,
YOTT

[The Big Ease]

Buying quality companies that arent exposed directly to the US consumer market.
Good times, good buying.

[corran]

voted for doing nothing....

cashed up a good portion of my portfolio in July last year but bought a house recently so don't have any cash to snap up bargins. Although I don't think I'd be keen to dip my toe back into the water at the moment anyway.

Now holding mostly energy and gold companies. Am hanging onto thoee and going to ride this out. My stocks are suffering at the mo though.

am trying to stop looking at the market.... but can't help myself :-( !!

[The Big Ease]

if anyone thinks this is over the asx was 500 points lower in august's "correction" @5500. we are now @5800. thats another ~5% to go.

the next round of SP disclosures/write downs could give us a once in a decade opportunity to buy quality companies at rare prices.

[Ptolemy]

I am still holding 60% cash, 10% gold preference shares and the rest in my favourite australian mining companies (although this percentage is getting smaller by the day and not because I have sold any).

I bunkered down back in September preparing for the worse and wish now I had sold more of my portfolio back then but as usual greed got the better of me.

I am not tempted to go back into the market - I think that we are only now at the beginning of a good old bear market which may last quite some time. I think from here we could feasibly see 20% of the ASX200 index before we have seen the bottom.

Still happy to ride this out with my remaining shares as I like their prospects longer term. I don't doubt they will get much cheaper from here but which ones? And by how much?

[jke_brown]

Small investor like my self, I don't have large sum of money to keep toping up on every market down turn. My stop losses took me out from the market last week, I have voted for Cash is king.

[KW]

In the process of raising cash to buy. Market down 15% already, and valuations on some stocks are beginning to look ridiculously cheap (albeit others still look ridiculously expensive).

The only way to play this is to buy when no-one else is. Buy in panic, sell in greed.

The market always looks forward, so its pricing in what it thinks will happen in the next 6-12 months, hence the big falls. But it always over-reacts, and when everyone is pessimistic about what is going to happen and how long it will happen for, its time to buy. By the time everyone thinks its going to be okay, and can see the light at the end of the tunnel, its too late, best bargains are gone.

Longterm, if you buy now on fundamentals you will do well. Dont buy on spec, or on trend.

[Footsie]

KW

you hit the nail on the head

Buy from pessimists, sell to optimists.

I'm buying stocks on fwd p/e's of less than 10 with no debt and good earnings growth

There are plenty out there.... especially in the small to mid cap space.

(exlcuding MFS which i bought for a trade)

[KW]

Thats exactly what I'm doing too!
However, some of my stocks are now down to P/Es less than 5 and div yields of 8%
Either they are going to be the next Centro, or its the buy of the century. Time will tell I guess.

[The Big Ease]

I'm buying stocks on fwd p/e's of less than 10 with no debt and good earnings growth




care to share?

[steve fleming]

yeah - doing nothing....except enjoying the cricket, tennis, the beach and everything else a nice summer has to offer.

I'll pay more attention to the market when things start to settle down a bit.

Its been 4 - 5 years of excellent returns....so not going to get too cut up over a bad couple of weeks....

[SEC]

I have held through this correction but am also sitting on a heap of cash and will start buying but not now since I reckon the ASX200 has further to fall (perhaps below 6000 but short lived). Those stocks on downtrends prior to this correction have been trashed particularly hard as moron fund managers bail out at any price. As a result some mid - large cap ASX200 components are reaching absolute bargain stages.

I posted this a week ago and for what it's worth I started buying today for the first time in months.

SEC

[wns]

I posted this a week ago and for what it's worth I started buying today for the first time in months.

SEC

What did you buy? (if you don't mind me asking)

[STRAT]

Hi everyone. there were 77 votes last week. If we can get the same 77 voters to push the button we will be able to compare the two

[tommy]

Good job STRAT, thanx for updating da thread :-)

I have started to buy back in but still around 50% cash awaiting for more fire sales.

Targeting lowish PE companies with solid EPS growth with minimal/no debt, especially sectors enjoying government funding, agri industry and mining engineering companies, not to mention gold bullion.

That said, some financial stocks are looking rediculously cheap like BNB, really tempting mmmm.

I personally think that after next monday, things will settle down after all the bad news from financial institutions are released from the USA: M Lynch, Citibank et al have provided some idea of writedowns and the recession in USA is getting factored into the market, which is a good sign of sanity sinking in. With uncle BEN at da FED giving a lot of lip service lately, a temporarly rebound may be due.

In the medium term however we can easily forsee:

lower US dollar in conjunction with interest rate cuts by da FED;
resulting continuation of uptrend in gold price and euro;
weakness in financial sector until subprime shockwave is fully absorbed;
increased attractiveness of defensive sectors like healthcare, agri and gov related industries;
strong performance among import-oriented retailers/wholesalers in OZ land thanks to strong Aussie dollar.

This of course assumes there are no new wars/conflicts which could tip the balance and throw any assumption down the toilet :-(
A lot of people believe China will continue to be the powerhouse for global economic growth for the next 3 decades but man, if there is a conflict over Taiwan after the Olympics, or if Mad Kim in North Korea nukes Japan, you can kiss that equation goodbye especially considering the world's increasing dependency on China Inc. run by communist dictatorship (remember that inflation would have become an issue a long time ago without cheap labor at China Inc's factories!) Not to mention India, which is next door to time-bomb Pakistan... stock markets HATE geopolitical upheavals! Though they can be the best time to pick bargains too :-P

In any case, ceteris paribus, 2008 overall shall not mark the end of the world apart from having its ups and downs in da stock market... Australian domestic economy remains strong and is in a unique position of benefiting from growth in Asia, not solely dependent on da USA.

As long as we pick the right stocks, we should still be able to make a dime or two. Let's continue to share our wealth of knowledge for the common prosperity of all contributers here :-)

[jke_brown]

-172 points in the first 10 minutes. my last stop loss got triggered just now. I am all out now.

[spruik]

-172 points in the first 10 minutes. my last stop loss got triggered just now. I am all out now.

Hope you can buy back a lot cheaper. I voted (more) bargain hunting but sitting on the fence atm.

[Halebop]

I'm sitting on the fence too but voted it for what it was - the fence is made of a wad of cash.

...forgive me for I'm an evil and petty person but I'm bloody enjoying the carnage – deflationary markets improve the purchasing power of cash.

[spruik]

Kind of an exiting really... have a buy order for MFS at $1.00. You never know today, has been down to $1.42 (>50% from yesterday).

[STRAT]

I'm sitting on the fence too but voted it for what it was - the fence is made of a wad of cash.

...forgive me for I'm an evil and petty person but I'm bloody enjoying the carnage – deflationary markets improve the purchasing power of cash.Evil and petty????

HELL NO.:D

If youve earned the right to then gloat away and enjoy;)

[Halebop]

Kind of an exiting really... have a buy order for MFS at $1.00. You never know today, has been down to $1.42 (>50% from yesterday).

$1.00 is looking pretty close just now.

[FarmerGeorge]

Voted for doing nothing, same as the past few weeks. However today was a surprisingly solid hit (well surprising to me!) and the tide has gone out a long way. My guess is by next week I could easily have moved to the 'bargain hunter buying' category. Just moved a bunch of cash from call into trading account.

[KW]

Especially in the small cap sector, prices are being pushed down 5-6% on single trades, as panic sets in and people sell at any price. No buyers in the market to hold prices up. It cant keep up like this for too long, as FA buyers will be stepping in soon.

[spruik]

$1.00 is looking pretty close just now.

Did lift the price a bit and got in. Hope it will rebound sooner or later.

[Footsie]

next week is the time to Buy

Ride the market up all through February then sell down again in March.

[The Big Ease]

its like the drought breaking rains for me....
i love this ****.