Safehaven.com reckons something's up

[belgarion]

Let me just say from the outset that the Federal Reserve has confirmed our Stock Market Crash forecast by raising the Money Supply (M-3) by crisis proportions, up another 46.8 billion this past week. What awful calamity do they see? Something is up. This is unprecedented, unheard-of pre-catastrophe M-3 expansion. M-3 is up an amount that we've never seen before without a crisis - $155 billion over the past 4 weeks, a $2.0 trillion annualized pace, a 22.2 percent annualized rate of growth!!! There must be a crisis of historic proportions coming, and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is making sure that there is enough liquidity in place to protect our nation's fragile financial system. The amazing thing is, the Fed's actions mean they know what is about to happen. They are aware of a terrible, horrific imminent event. What could it be? (http://www.safehaven.com/article-1597.htm)

[Cooper]

I would encourage readers to go to the site and look at all the articles, there is a fair spread of opinion. Also check out the post by Grant62 on the ASX thread "The Looming US Dollar Disaster".

[pringy]

Not only that, the looming massive Terrorist strike... there was an article about a professor from Michigan lecturing in Chch that a nuclear attack is definitely possible...

mmmm time to liquidate?

[Capitalist]

We're all gonna die!!!!

Cash up, put on your white frocks and wait on a mountaintop for the end of the world.

What a bunch of druid priests.

[willy_wonker]

A small GOLD portfolio is not such a stupid idea after all.

:)

[Gryffyn]

So Belg - have these guys ever been wrong before? Perhaps they are hedging against an oil blow out if things go bad in Saudi.

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

A small GOLD portfolio is not such a stupid idea after all.

:)


Only if you believe the agenda ridden pessimism, which is merely a continuation of an old, old story that has been consistently wrong for the last 2000 years. I think of it as The Conspiracy to keep you Poor and Stupid.

And if you do believe End Times are near,will you have time to enjoy your profits :D:D:D

[bongo66]

I saw Elvis today and he was mowing lawns for a living.

He has as put all his profit into equities. As I left him after our conversation on economies and investing, I was heard to say, thankyou, thankyou very much.

Damb competition, Bongo

[srotherh]

Cap

quote:We're all gonna die!!!!

Cash up, put on your white frocks and wait on a mountaintop for the end of the world.

What a bunch of druid priests.

Typical emotional kneejerk reaction from you
Why dont you explain why you think the Fed has raised the money supply by so much in such a short time.
Give some reason and I for one will take on board what you have to say.
Look forward to your explanation.
Cheers

[Capitalist]

Because Greenspan is the greatest central banker in the world, and knows what he is doing.

Name me ONE of yours or GB's doomsayings predictions that have become reality in the last 2 years and I might listen to YOU.

Predictions:

Last year me DJI 10,000. GB 3,000.Not to mention property implosion, Fannie Mae, pension plans, options, USD Disaster. The list goes on and on. I have been right on all of them.You can choose not to listen to me -- I give less than a rat's ass. But I am right and you are wrong.


I simply CANNOT believe that there are still so many knuckle dragging Neanderthals who believe the US economy is doing badly.

[Burgerbun]

You forgot POG $450 by end of 03 CAP;)

[Capitalist]

Dang C9, the list of crap predictions is so long, I knew the chances of us missing something out was high:D:D:D

[srotherh]

Cap

So your answer to the question is Greenspan Knows what he is doing
Please explain ,Do you know why he is doing it?

Not predicting anything

Just asking a logical question [:o)]

[belgarion]

Greenspan is ensuring Buffet is right ... even citibank know that :D

[srotherh]

Cap
You have not supplied a reason as to why the the enormous M3 expansion
This one seems logical to me

"Yes, there is a crisis pending but that crisis is the cessation of yen intervention by the Bank of Japan. What the Japanese are doing is shutting down the Bernanke Electronic Money Printing Machine which during its last month of operation produced US$72 billion in stimulation across all US Treasury maturities in a transaction that cannot be reversed when the Fed wishes to drain liquidity.

The Fed had to step in to fill the void left behind by its traditional means of expanding monetary aggregates which is a less efficient method of expanding liquidity. Because the Fed's means of increasing aggregates does not pack the liquidity wallop of Bernnake's invention, the amount the Fed has to expand money supply is orders of magnitude times the Japanese's experience simply to hold the bond market where it is.

The other part of the crisis reason to act is the Fed's traditional role in supporting the incumbent seeking re-election. If the Fed failed to step into the Japanese liquidity vacuum created by their departure from supporting the yen, then the US treasury market would have imploded to new lows and the equity market would have been dragged into that black hole by the irresistible force of gravity of the US Treasury market flop. The next item to be dragged into that same black hole would be the political ambitions of the incumbent."

Maybe Greenspan does know what he is doing
and maybe he has no option but to do this.


This is fact happening now so any debate should be on this topic.
So Please give us a break with the emotional accusations of doom and gloom predictions. You are evading the issue at hand.

Cheers

[Capitalist]

I don't have to justify myself to you . Look at my record of correct calls compared to yours. You have spent too long at Mises org and the Daily Reckoning.

Re this forum, it is often commented by others that most of you people do not have the coal-face experience to know what is important to the big picture, and what is not.

Do you seriously think that you know more than people at the top of their profession? You don't. Nor do you have access to the information. That is why I am mortgaging the primary residence to invest in the US.

Save this post and refer to it next year. Pessimism persists because it suits certain political agendas. Re read the "US Engine Roaring" thread. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

[belgarion]

Cap,

The great thing about posts about the future is that they are either 'right' or 'wrong'.

Thus everyone has about a 50/50 chance.

I have looked at your "record of correct calls" and you're batting about the norm ... half right and half wrong. That average definitely needs to come up before such a prompous and imperious reply like, "I don't have to justify myself to you", isn't going to elicit anything more than guffaws from the majority of posters.

With regards, "Pessimism persists because it suits certain political agendas."

From my point of view I think that's rot. The US economy continues to be heavily reliant on cheap oil and it is a huge structural problem. Even more so when you consider that all oil producers with the exception of S.A. are pumping the stuff flat out! Were the structural problems limited to oil I may be neutral on US prospects over the longer term. Alas for the US, they are not.

Why bother with 4% growth (and a shaky USD) when you can get 11% plus in China and have the upside of the renminbi uncoupling from the USD?

It is simply a matter of time.

[Capitalist]

It always is a "matter of time"

"One day, Roger Finch, one day!!"

I note you have stopped posting on US Engine Roaring. No-one can admit it is not. China will be the dominant economic power in the world in a few years, no doubt about it. Capitalism rules!!

What I object to is persons posting from a position of ignorance with regards to the big picture. Come on. I have been correct on most of US economy predictions. Far more than 50%.

[srotherh]

Run Cap Run :D:D:D

Sorry that was uncalled for[V]

[Capitalist]

PS Take Japanese style deflation. That was one of the most asshatted predictions here, which merchant banks laughed at.

[skinny]

Cap certainly has made the right call on the US economic bounce back. Not so good on short-term currency movements (perhaps too much time spent listening to currency strategists ;)) but I'd never hold that one against anyone :)

Cap - since we seem on opposing sides on oil prices do you have a prediction, say by the end of this year at which point any supply issues re OPEC (ex Iraq !) should be crystal clear ? I'll start it rolling by saying I reckon the futures are too optimistic and I think the NYMEX USD oil price will still be above $40 US.

[Capitalist]

Well Skinny, you said USD would overshoot to 50c, I said 60 was fair value. It still is.

Oil will be USD37 per barrel at the end of this year.

[mikescott]

This Mr Belgarion he be bad comments and is always be wrong when he be writing on US economy. I think you do different from him and you be making big monies.

[Capitalist]

Hey Skinny. Mr Cap knows you. Next time u r in Auckland we will have a drink ;) PS Thanks Minder. Yes, I do make lots on US markets.

[skinny]

C'est possible, its a very small pond Mr.Cap & I fish in....Ms. Skinny and I will be back in Akl. end of this year for a few weeks ;)

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

PS Take Japanese style deflation. That was one of the most asshatted predictions here, which merchant banks laughed at.


:D:D:D

and one simply couldnt understand the difference in Japanese decision making vs. US style. As pointed out, Korea took the hard steps US style and came out within 3 years.

Asshats!:D:D like GB couldnt see the difference.
US companies in the same condition as the hemoraging Japanese ones here the banks constantly put financial sticking plasters on would have been liquidated years ago.

Theyre only learning now how to take serious restructuring steps...and finally Walla! earnings are soaring.

Way too slow!

Americans move so much faster.

[Capitalist]

Right on C9 :D[8D][:0]

This is what I mean by not seeing the Big Picture... of course with the internet no matter how deluded you might be you will find someone to agree with you.

Reality has proven that the minutae some of our friends here focus on has as much relevance to the big picture as a tribe of Mountain Gorillas :D:D:D

[Alban]

In his May 28th Newsletter, Alex Elder makes the following prediction. Let's see if it comes to pass.

MARKETS

The timing of our conference could not have been better. It was pure coincidence of course because the meeting had been set up months in advance. Still, I enjoyed showing the group why I had turned intensely bullish the week before and insisted on preparing a major shopping list for stocks.

I showed the group why New High - New Low Index is one of the best leading stock market indicators (there is a chapter on it in Trading for a Living, please reread it). Once every few years this indicator shows a major spike in the number of new lows, close to a 1,000, which indicates a panic liquidation. If you look at stock market history, each of these huge downspikes has been followed by a massive rally, usually of 2,000 Dow points or more. There was a spike a week prior to the conference, the previous spike had occurred after 9/11 and before that in 1998. You can go and review the history of the past 20 years - every downspike has marked a major bottom and augured in a major rally. Sometimes a rally came immediately, other times it took several weeks to develop, but the writing is on the wall - we are at a major bottom area, with a big rally in the works.

There are other indicators that support this message. For example, each weekend I review over 100 market indicators and 239 stock industry groups using the weekly Impulse system (described in Come into My Trading Room). I mark each group green (bullish), red (bearish) or blue (neutral) in a spreadsheet - the value of that spreadsheet grows with each week, as it accumulates historical data. During the trading week that ended May 14 the number of ‘red’ groups had reached 193, with only 7 ‘green’ groups - a historical extreme. The stock market had been flushed out to the downside and now has nowhere to go but up.

This week’s price action confirms this analysis, with the weekly charts of all the key indexes - the Dow, the Nasdaq, etc. turning ‘green’.

[Capitalist]

Incidentally the lovely Don Luskin says technical indicators haven't been this bullish in years as well. I'm ready to go at any rate.

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

I'm ready to go at any rate.



You let that one slip ... ;)

[Capitalist]

When Belgarion disagrees with my comment that pessimism persists because of political agendas he is quite wrong. Some may not like the thread becoming politicized, but economics is politicized. Inspired by the latest gallup poll,about the increasingly insane left;

We all know what's going on: The Democrats have staked their political future -- their viability for 20 or more years -- on a disaster in Iraq and in the American economy. They have not been careful to half-support Bush's moves, so that they can take partial credit if good news comes. They have stridently opposed just about everything he's done, so that if there is good news, they will be discredited.

They cannot afford, at this point, for America to win in Iraq. Or for America's economy to recover.

The stakes of this election, then, are pushing both sides to historic levels of partisanship. But it's particularly vicious on the left, which has, of its own free will, set itself up so that it can only prosper politically should America be beset by misery and disaster.

In a way, I can't even blame the left anymore. They may have put themselves into this situation, but however they got there, they're in that situation now. They cannot under any circumstances afford for Bush to preside over the rapidly-growing, super-prosperous, Treasury-enriching 2005-2009 presidential term.

And if that means they need terrorist attacks, dead American bodies in Iraq, and Hoovervilles, so be it. They've got to pray for those things. They've left themselves little choice.[i]Even though they opposed the tax cuts which were partly responsible for the new prosperity, they can at least take credit if the economy grows like gangbusters under President John Kerry. It happened under my watch, he will say.

F.E.T.E

[winner69]

Seeing its a long weekend something for belg et all
http://www.2000wave.com/pdf/mwo060404.pdf

CAP ... not for you .... only more of that dailyreckoning crap but it will keep belg happy with hedge funds collapsing, employment numbers calc on false assumptions and CPI numbers dodgy just to keep some happy etc etc

[Cooper]

Winner... the guys name is john MAUDLIN... satirical or just a very funny coincidence?

[Cooper]

Whoops sorry it's Mauldin...

[GB]

yes cap- you are right - in fact you are always right - no wonder George thorogood sang songs about woman like you - what a ****ing giant pain in the **** ego maniac you are- if you think i am so full of **** why do you always base your record against mine - who told you to buy on the 13 of march 03 to the day ?? - so go **** your self and stick with idiots who placate you and massage your giant ego like c9- signing off and up yours

[GB]

believe me for someone who aint that great you show no ammount of humility for the small ammount of victories that i am sure are not attributable to your own skills

[Burgerbun]

orhhh, Mikey

dont have a wobbly, get your crayons out and draw us some of your amazing gold charts.


btw, did you know Fannie and Freddie use derivatives???:D:D:D



over and outta my mind

love[:X]C9

[Cooper]

Winner69... after reading a plethora of doomsday predictions forecasting the end of a) the world or b) western civilisation as we know it it's refreshing to read an article that is intelligent, articulate and middle of the road (ie not pushing a barrow). Thanks for posting that article. Can I ask where you got it from?

[Alban]

quote:Originally posted by Cooper

Winner69... after reading a plethora of doomsday predictions forecasting the end of a) the world or b) western civilisation as we know it it's refreshing to read an article that is intelligent, articulate and middle of the road (ie not pushing a barrow). Thanks for posting that article. Can I ask where you got it from?


http://www.2000wave.com/archive.asp

Mauldin's articles make interesting reading.

[skinny]

Interesting site, cheers. I second Mauldin's recommendation to check out research/forecasts from the BCA for those investing in north American markets:

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp

I've met some of their economists and they are very smart cookies with a great track record - e.g. they were very quick off the mark spotting the Asian crisis. Today they recommend investing in E&P oil companies as I keep on bleating about here ;)

[belgarion]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-1612.htm

More strange behaviour coinciding with a plethera of other indicators.

Anyone seen the paper, "Americas biggest export? Paper?"? ... Good read! And it appears Buffet has read it too as some of his recent comments seem to be near word for word from the paper. :D

Cash is looking very good, but then, so is India and China ;)

[Capitalist]

Safehaven.com reckons something's up....I think the only thing that will be up is that someone forgot to nominate them for Idiotarians of the Year Award [:0]

And you can BITE ME GB--you big cry-baby. You have conveniently forgotten that I was the only one who acknowledged your March call here. And it has been *me* who has constantly tried to get you to stop selling yourself short and be open to positive potentialities. You just seem determined to stay on the Road to Nowhere, and that is such a waste.

[Risk]

something is obviously up: the powerful american dollar is soon to be known as the "Worthless American Peso".

At the rate the US is printing money, I think it wont be too long until Toilet Paper is worth more....at least toilet paper doesnt try to pretend its something its not.

[Capitalist]

Haven't we heard that before? Remember the risible "USD Disaster" threads of the last few years~ all of them? Still waiting for the disaster [:o)]There is an echo around here.

Maybe not this year, but one day :D:D:D Meanwhile the smart money has bought the Daq and DJI :D

[Burgerbun]

:D:D:D


Whoa..........I just saw Roger Finch at the supermarket, pushing a trolley with Elvis[:0]


:D:D:D

[Burgerbun]

..........however, I was perplexed to see the only contents were a few dozen bottles of cheap rum......

I wonder who wants to drown their sorrows;)



Daq over 2000...berry berry good