FKP - good opportunity!

[KW]

For those of you who have not suffered through the recent share price fall (like myself :-( now is a good opportunity to get in as support seems to be on the buy side.
P/E of 4.14
Div Yield of 11.6%
Director recently added $1mil+ to his holdings
113 buyers vs 24 sellers
Trigger point - complete rollover of short term financing

[ruethewhirl]

Thanks KW, defo one to watch. That 4 month down trend (which looks way overdone when viewing a long-term chart) is broken, price is bouncing off long term support on nice volume. It also looks like there was a price-volume climax at the bottom - also a sign we could see a sustained reversal.

[KW]

Still 3:1 support on the buy side
Trend is definately looking good :-)

[KW]

Also showing a similar trend break, is DVN.
Its not as undervalued as FKP but still cheap based on traditional measures
P/E 8.7
Div Yield 7.3%
50 buy vs 13 sells

A bit early to tell, but with luck BEC is also on the same trajectory.
60 buyers vs 18 sellers
Also good fundamentals - P/E 5.2, Div Yield 9.9%

About bloody time my development companies started to bounce back :-)

[KW]

Both FKP and DVN are moving along very nicely. Still a massive depth imbalance on the buy side for FKP.

BEC slower out of the starting gate, but 95% of 08 earnings already under contract with potential to surprise on the upside.

Lot of news out now about how many of the A-REITS are seriously undervalued, so should expect more retail buyer action soon. A-REIT index up 17% from the lows, and on average 8% yield.

I'm a happy camper as I'm now back in the black with DVN. Bit further to go with the FKP and BEC though :-(

[KW]

Interesting move today to a high of $3.90, with a 15% increase in price on strong volumes, and no announcement. Especially since the property sector has had another terrible month. Insider trading at work???

I wonder if it is related to the Macquarie Bank capital raising for an acquisition - these guys share a retirement village.

[KW]

Not Macquarie after all, but Lend Lease! Takeover offer today at $5 per share. Also dividend distribution maintained.

[Rif-Raf]

KW, you did well to pick this. Wonder how far undervalued the board belive the offer is

[KW]

Over 6 million shares traded yesterday (or six times normal volume). They might as well make insider trading legal!!!!!

[KW]

Valuation is around $6 per share for a successful bid. Net Asset Backing is currently $4.96, so $5 takeover offer is pretty low.

FKP is not the only retirement village operator trading substantially below NTA. I noticed a spike in BEC share price today too - this one would be much easier to bite off than FKP and it is currently paying a 10% final dividend (16% for full year).

ILF is trading at 49c compared to NTA of $1.13, and is on a dividend yield of 22%. They could cut their dividend in half, and still be on a double digit yield! They have flagged some asset revaluations (down) but I doubt that property values have more than halved. And their rental income streams are reasonably consistent, so there shouldnt be any reason for a substantial cut in dividends next year (debt is long term, and hedged).

Sorry for talking to myself, but I think I am the only person on ST that is playing outside of mining & energy stocks :-)

[macduffy]

Valuation is around $6 per share for a successful bid. Net Asset Backing is currently $4.96, so $5 takeover offer is pretty low.

FKP is not the only retirement village operator trading substantially below NTA. I noticed a spike in BEC share price today too - this one would be much easier to bite off than FKP and it is currently paying a 10% final dividend (16% for full year).

ILF is trading at 49c compared to NTA of $1.13, and is on a dividend yield of 22%. They could cut their dividend in half, and still be on a double digit yield! They have flagged some asset revaluations (down) but I doubt that property values have more than halved. And their rental income streams are reasonably consistent, so there shouldnt be any reason for a substantial cut in dividends next year (debt is long term, and hedged).

Sorry for talking to myself, but I think I am the only person on ST that is playing outside of mining & energy stocks :-)

Hi KW

A few of us are listening.
Property related companies are certainly being knocked indiscriminately, regardless of their earnings and debt maturities.
I particularly like ILF, it's probably suffering also from the current unpopularity of the ING name, but it looks solid enough to me. I'm currently considering switching from AVE to ILF. Comments welcome.

:)

[KW]

I cannot see retirement villages being a bad buy long term. Demand is growing, supply is slowing, which means increasing asset values longterm as well as increased rental income. Compare that with retail property companies, where rental income is determined by consumer spending in the malls, and shops not going out of business in a recession, and the two markets could not be more different!

ILF US villages (I believe) dont sell and buy back occupation rights, but rents on a monthly basis. So its not reliant on residential property value increases for profits, therefore has more of a consistent commercial rental income which should support the dividend yield.

[COLIN]

Valuation is around $6 per share for a successful bid. Net Asset Backing is currently $4.96, so $5 takeover offer is pretty low.

FKP is not the only retirement village operator trading substantially below NTA. I noticed a spike in BEC share price today too - this one would be much easier to bite off than FKP and it is currently paying a 10% final dividend (16% for full year).

ILF is trading at 49c compared to NTA of $1.13, and is on a dividend yield of 22%. They could cut their dividend in half, and still be on a double digit yield! They have flagged some asset revaluations (down) but I doubt that property values have more than halved. And their rental income streams are reasonably consistent, so there shouldnt be any reason for a substantial cut in dividends next year (debt is long term, and hedged).

Sorry for talking to myself, but I think I am the only person on ST that is playing outside of mining & energy stocks :-)


I also hold FKP, KW, but bought some time ago so even with today's welcome news I am still in the red. Had decided that the precipitous slide was ridiculous, and just the contagious effect of the likes of CNP etc. Good try, LLC!