skinny
08-06-2004, 09:46 PM
Folks, following the lead of some of the FA gurus here (like dimebag and oldrider) future postings will be of a fundie nature only for companies I have an interest in or am considering investing in. Its fun debating everything else but only too easy compared to putting down a piece of FA and mine still has a ways to go!
For the record, here are a few predictions for some of the more macro debates on this channel. I'm an optimist and there is nothing outrageous IMO, but needless to say I still expect a fair amount of egg on the face [:o)] and I could be 100% wrong [B)]
- The world economy will continue to chug along with the US locomotive in the lead. Barring another major terrorist attack the S&P500 will climb over 1300 in around a years time (15%+ from here) and the higher beta Asian markets will follow suit [:p] The Fed funds rate will be +300bp this time next year.
- Australia is not called the lucky country for nothing. The major cloud over it has been the housing bubble and its recent burst will crimp domestic demand and the AUD, but output growth will remain solid with the world economy so strong; a fortuitous time to re-balance growth sources. The Kiwi/Oz cross may head over .9 again short-term but the AUD will start shining through against it. The #1 place to park capital in the world for kiwis IMO [8D]
- Nothing much will happen with the broad NZX unless Brash wins the next election. I think he will [8]
If so we'll see another good rally in anticipation of some overdue regulatory reforms and the promise of lower taxes, despite growth starting to fade.
- Energy prices will stay high while the world economy is strong even if the terror menace diminishes. The energy sector will be the best performing on the S&P.
- China's eventual slowdown will be mach 5.0 earthquake. Ex-energy commodity prices will fall a bit in its wake, but no major ripples will be felt and everyone will wonder what the fuss was all about. At US $1409 billion in 2003 China's economy is still only around 80% the size of Italy's. India's economy will replace China's as the worlds developing darling.
- Bush, Blair and Howard will lose their elections [:0] The taint of Iraq is just too strong. Bush and the republicans are done like a dogs dinner but Blair and Howard could perhaps stave off their parties defeat by handing the reigns of power to finance ministers Costello and Brown.
I don’t imagine they will [:X]
For the record, here are a few predictions for some of the more macro debates on this channel. I'm an optimist and there is nothing outrageous IMO, but needless to say I still expect a fair amount of egg on the face [:o)] and I could be 100% wrong [B)]
- The world economy will continue to chug along with the US locomotive in the lead. Barring another major terrorist attack the S&P500 will climb over 1300 in around a years time (15%+ from here) and the higher beta Asian markets will follow suit [:p] The Fed funds rate will be +300bp this time next year.
- Australia is not called the lucky country for nothing. The major cloud over it has been the housing bubble and its recent burst will crimp domestic demand and the AUD, but output growth will remain solid with the world economy so strong; a fortuitous time to re-balance growth sources. The Kiwi/Oz cross may head over .9 again short-term but the AUD will start shining through against it. The #1 place to park capital in the world for kiwis IMO [8D]
- Nothing much will happen with the broad NZX unless Brash wins the next election. I think he will [8]
If so we'll see another good rally in anticipation of some overdue regulatory reforms and the promise of lower taxes, despite growth starting to fade.
- Energy prices will stay high while the world economy is strong even if the terror menace diminishes. The energy sector will be the best performing on the S&P.
- China's eventual slowdown will be mach 5.0 earthquake. Ex-energy commodity prices will fall a bit in its wake, but no major ripples will be felt and everyone will wonder what the fuss was all about. At US $1409 billion in 2003 China's economy is still only around 80% the size of Italy's. India's economy will replace China's as the worlds developing darling.
- Bush, Blair and Howard will lose their elections [:0] The taint of Iraq is just too strong. Bush and the republicans are done like a dogs dinner but Blair and Howard could perhaps stave off their parties defeat by handing the reigns of power to finance ministers Costello and Brown.
I don’t imagine they will [:X]