Canwest - thumbs up or down?

[riskandreturn]

I haven't seen any chat about the IPO of Canwest coming up?

On gut feeling it seems like a float with good possibilities and access to a limited asset (TV spectrum).

There's likely to be good demand too as long as the financials stack up.

Haven't seen the detail of the percentage of shares being floated, rules for existing holders, etc which is likely to be the deciding points....

Thoughts anyone?

R&R why do they want to sell it. If it is any good Why sell.

[willy_wonker]

Willy will have to do some due diligence on this one.

Maybe a good long term stock, but dont think there will be a stag.

[riskandreturn]

Enigma - this link sheds a little light on why they are listing but still raises the question of why they don't acquire the assets out of their own funds.

I thought they had some pretty big funds behind them but have yet to confirm this...


http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/BU0405/S00203.htm

[Scooter]

would not touch this one with a barge pole

[J. Holmes]

Canwests NZ assets cr@p cash - especially the radio assets.

They tried to flog the lot a few years back but couldn't get the right price (from memory the motive was to retire debt back home), since then it has been boom times and TV3 is doing well also.

I will have to get hold of a prospectus but only selling 30% is a little odd. I don't think they will struggle to get the numbers in but I think the publics appetite for IPOs is waining.

[Gryffyn]

Scooter - why not?

[riskandreturn]

J Holmes - i think people have just learnt to filter the IPO's for the junk that comes out in a market like it is now.....

I still think quality IPOs will be in demand, but those trying to capitalise on the market sentiment like Storefund will struggle?

Anyway, agree with the 30% being odd. May lead to less demand and a discount for minority holding...

[Mr_p_yu]

Canwest - thumbs up or down?

The thumb is down where the sun don't shine.

[mikescott]

Now here be hoping next 2 floats they be Salvus and Storefund they have bad listing so everyones they stay clear of Canwest. Just like everyones they be not wanting Pumpkin Patch and Just Water after poor listing they be Feltex and Mike Pero.

Then Canwest it be sure to be good float. :D:D[:p][:p]

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by minder


Now here be hoping next 2 floats they be Salvus and Storefund they have bad listing so everyones they stay clear of Canwest. Just like everyones they be not wanting Pumpkin Patch and Just Water after poor listing they be Feltex and Mike Pero.

Then Canwest it be sure to be good float. :D:D[:p][:p]


You're right I daresay. So are you saying IPO's are for the sheeple, and essentially Brother Coy is being rational, it's just the investing public who are irrational?

[mikescott]

You be right, Cap. Public they be using history to invest rather than case by case. Over last year, you look at floats and there be more good floats and bigger gains (they be Pumpkin Patch, Just Water, Freightways, Kingfish, Teamtalk) than poor floats (they be Mike Pero and Feltex) and small losses (3%). Papers they only like bad news and play up the bad news.

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by Scooter

would not touch this one with a barge pole


That's helpful .... Not.

Why wouldn't you touch it?
Does the past history scare you ... well that's all in the past.

Certainly CamWest aren't sellingthis for a song but with Radio and TV ad rates rising there is likely to be some code growth in core earnings here. TV3 is doing well and TV4 (C4) has been outstanding since relaunch.
Plenty of market share in radio and TV left to win off competitors and plenty of government advertising spend to come. This might be a good one to look at

[MeNoBatty]

Has the prospectus been released yet?

[Nimble]

Prospectus originally due out on June 9th. The following was released on 12th.

Institutional investors and sharebrokers have been sounded out for the float of CanWest's MediaWorks, a bundle of media assets that includes TV3, C4 and a radio empire. That offer slipped out past the target date for opening but is expected to launch at the end of this month. The head of sharebroking firm Goldman Sachs JBWere, Clark Perkins, says: "The demand for that float is extremely encouraging - it is very, very strong." The offer is expected to raise $119 million to $143 million.

[Nimble]

Offer opens on June 30 and closes on July 21.

CanWest pitches IPO for strong debut
18.06.2004
By PAUL PANCKHURST
The float of media company CanWest's New Zealand assets is being pitched as likely to offer the first-day rally missing from some of this year's share offers. The final details of the initial public offering are locked down and investment bank Goldman Sachs JBWere is on the road, marketing to sharebrokers and institutional investors.
The float company - CanWest MediaWorks (NZ) - owns TV3, C4 and the RadioWorks group of radio stations. The Canadian-owned CanWest - controlled by the Asper family - is selling down to cut debt at home. The indicative price range for the offer will be $1.50 to $1.65 per share. That compares with the $1.50 to $1.75 of earlier market soundings.
Goldman Sachs' marketing is highlighting CanWest as a vendor that - unlike some private equity investors - is not solely driven by securing the maximum price for its shares. The listed Canadian company will retain 64 per cent to 70 per cent of the New Zealand business. A minimum of 68 million shares will be sold in the offer, with another 13.6 million available on over-allotment.
The Business Herald was told that Goldman Sachs and CanWest wanted the offer priced to give "an appropriate IPO premium" on day one.
IPO pricing is topical after the year's biggest local offer saw Feltex Carpets' shares list at a discount to the issue price. The second-biggest IPO saw childrenswear retailer Pumpkin Patch list at a premium. The tiny Just Water International this week rocketed away with a first-day gain of 32 per cent.
Raising up to $135 million, MediaWorks will be the third-largest local float of the year. Initial market responses are that the price range looks reasonable. "It looks OK," said one analyst. "I certainly don't think it's a steal," said another. Brokers and analysts are reserving judgment until looking at the prospectus more closely.
The offer will open on June 30, with the final share price to be announced on July 12 after a "book build" where institutional investors bid for stock. The company is to list on July 29.
Goldman Sachs' marketing says MediaWorks is priced at a multiple of 8.8 to 9.4 times forecast operating earnings for 2005. It says media companies such as Sky Network Television and Australia's Ten Network are trading on higher multiples.
MediaWorks forecasts operating earnings for the year to August 2005 of $61.1 million on revenue of $235 million. This year's forecast is operating earnings of $60 million and revenue of $227 million.
The offer
Between 30 and 36 per cent of CanWest MediaWorks is for sale.
Canadian parent CanWest Global Communications will retain the rest.
The stake is priced at $122m to $135m, or $1.50 to $1.65 a share.
The forecast dividend yield is 6.1 to 6.7 per cent.
The offer opens on June 30 and closes on July 21.
The NZX listing is on July 29.

[Scooter]

Soory guys for lack of replies, have been busy.

In defence of my comments. This sectors has found it hard to make money, and in someways is similar to Airlines trying to get bums on seats. Canwest have been trying to sell for a long time as they know it is a bleeder. By only selling part of the comapny it can give the general public a sense of security to invest into as the company still hold a majority.

Could it be that the accounts have been fudged over a prolonged period to make them look sound.

Also what interference will the Government have in up coming years with the support they give to there own.

[riskandreturn]

I think people have neglected to consider the effect of Prime on the market.

Indications are that they are making good progress in market share and are starting to pick up some good programming and also increasing it's relevance to NZ (ie NZ news, etc).

Still think it's likely to be a good float as they are not exiting totally which people are sceptical of at the moment....

[Andrew]

Agree that Prime has a big effect on the market. Can West wants to get out because they have been losing money for years. No investment is any good if it doesn't make money. TV 4 couldnt hack it, down to playing music.

Mind you give it a couple of years when the share price drops to rock bottom, it may be a good buy.

Disc, I watch a lot of Prime.

[willy_wonker]

What is the indication on Canwast?

Are you guys getting a decent firm allocation from your broker?

Willy is still undecided on this one.

[riskandreturn]

No allocation yet - haven't even seen the prospectus but am going to go source one now!

[marinesalvor]

Access have shares - must be undersubscribed! ;)

[willy_wonker]

Thanks MS.

I am still 50/50 on this one and decided not to take up the firm allocation offered to me.

On one side there could be a stag with institution wanting shares for indexing as it is a NZSE40 stock. But on the other side, I am not so keen with TV stations and radios. Based on TVNZ, they are just break even after all these years in business.

Oh well, I may be wrong.

[Gryffyn]

To answer the initial question - thumbs up.

[Gryffyn]

PS - I subscribe to the view that the traditional Roman thumbs up was used to condemn, and the thumbs down was used to spare, i.e. the opposite of Hollywood's Gladiator et al.

[marinesalvor]

much as I quite like lifestyle/entertainment type shares - I think this will ease back a bit after listing - I might pick up then

[willy_wonker]

Willy may buy some shares. Take a punt.

....and why not. :)

[glennj]

glennj also giving this IPO a miss. Also not a fan of book builds. Will watch this one tho.
Potentialy a very profitable sector.
Got into Radio Otago & Radio Pacific at the right price & did extremely well.

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by marinesalvor

Access have shares - must be undersubscribed! ;)


IPO has not even started so how can Access have shares? Rang them up and they said to put name down as they believe they willhave some shares available.

If they can give you some now, take them with both hands. :D

[mikescott]

Just heard from broker who has been given allocation - scaled back. [xx(]

Not happy. :(

[zyreon]

yo minder you'd have to be your brokers' ***** to get a decent firm allocation for this one.
oversubscribed to be.. must apply for more than i can afford ;);)

[mikescott]

Watch the scramble for this stock. [:p][:p][:p]

Broker has scaled back Minder so severely in his firm allocation that he feels like a filleted snapper! :(:(:(

Broker he says that his firm has been scaled back and only best clients will now get stock. [^]

Minder not unhappy however! :D:D:D

[Gryffyn]

That's because Minder is small change and needs to develop a better relationship with broker. Perhaps when you start making some real trades you might find things different.

[mikescott]

Good one, Gryffyn - if only it was true!

Now check back the thread and see who knows about IPOs and who haven't got an idea.;)

[Gryffyn]

Well, you'll be pleased about this yet more news like this then...

[Gryffyn]

Heavy demand for CanWest float sees brokers rationed

29.06.2004
By PAUL PANCKHURST
Sharebroking firms seeking shares in the CanWest MediaWorks float have been scaled back by up to 60 per cent amid heavy demand.

Lead manager Goldman Sachs JBWere yesterday allocated about 40 million shares to broking firms.

The Business Herald was told that firms typically got 50 per cent to 60 per cent of what they wanted.

The offer of up to 81.6 million shares opens tomorrow.

CanWest MediaWorks is made up of six national radio brands, 22 regional radio stations and television networks TV3 and C4.

The Canadian owner, CanWest Global Communications, is selling 30 per cent to 36 per cent of the company to repay debt at home.

It will raise up to $134.6 million.

The prospectus for the offer was registered on Friday.

Many of the details - including forecast earnings - are already public after the pre-marketing of the offer to sharebrokers and institutional investors.

New details include a one-year restriction on CanWest Global further selling down its stake. A range of exceptions to that restriction include: if CanWest MediaWorks is the subject of a takeover offer.

The float company's chairman is Tom Strike, the chief operating officer of CanWest Global.

His letter to investors says CanWest Global "currently intends to be a long-term investor".

The rest of the board is: CanWest MediaWorks chief executive Brent Impey; independent directors David Jackson, Susan Sheldon and Craig Thompson; and CanWest Global's president, Leonard Asper, and chief financial officer, John Maguire.

MediaWorks forecasts operating earnings for the year to August 2005 of $61.1 million on revenue of $235 million. This year's forecast is operating earnings of $60 million and revenue of $227 million.

The indicative price range for the offer is $1.50 to $1.65 a share.

The final share price will be announced on July 12 after a "book build" where institutional investors bid for stock. The company is to list on July 29.

A minimum of 68 million shares will be sold in the offer, with 13.6 million more available on over-allotment.

[Gryffyn]

Brokers offer now a bit more tempting if all can be believed.

[willy_wonker]

Willy is happy, as his broker gave him a nice allocation. :)

I suppose those who give their broker real business gets real allocations.

Thanks for coming.

[foodee]

Must have made some other punter(s) happy as I turned down my lot.[}:)]

[Gryffyn]

Foodee - how many and why?

[foodee]

Gryf
All the 'play money' tied up.:)

[Speculator]

This stock is clearly too expensive at the range indicated. Its valuation would only be justified with significant and likely earnings growth. It fails on these criteria. It is grossly overvalued on historical earnings.

Great assets, but too pricy.

The crowd has got it wrong.

[mikescott]

CanWest is going to be priced at a decent discount to other like companies.

On the basis of Speculator's comments, all the Australasian TV & Radio media companies like TEN and Sky TV are then all too expensive. So the market should be selling out of all of them. :D:D:D:D:D

And what did the punter said about Pumpkin Patch when it was being floated? Too expensive when compared to PRG, Warehouse or Briscoe! [^]

[Speculator]

I think you should check your facts, Minder.

[mikescott]

Check my facts? How's this for facts :

This stock is clearly too cheap at the range indicated. Its valuation would easily be justified with sustainable and likely earnings growth. It is grossly undervalued on historical earnings growth.

Do some comparison, Speculator, with the radio & media companies in Australia, and Sky TV here.

[mikescott]

Brian Gaynor: Radio outshining glamour of TV

03.07.2004
COMMENT
Carol Hirschfeld and John Campbell, TV3 news presenters, were the big stars at CanWest MediaWorks glitzy IPO launch in Auckland this week. But as far as investors are concerned Hirschfeld, Campbell and TV3 are less important than Brent Impey and radio.

Campbell introduced Impey, who is CanWest's chief executive, as a "hard bastard". The Campbell-Impey banter was humorous but Campbell left the large audience with the clear impression that Impey was a tough personality who was firmly in control of CanWest.

Impey appears to be cut from the same mould as Evan Davies in terms of seriousness and determination. The latter has played a big role in the success of Sky City Entertainment.

Impey, who was originally a specialist media lawyer, was appointed chief executive of the More FM group after CanWest bought the radio network in 1997.

In May 2000, CanWest bought 71.8 per cent of the listed RadioWorks and eight months later the remaining 28.2 per cent.

RadioWorks consisted of the Radio Pacific, The Edge FM, Solid Gold FM and The Rock FM networks and a large number of regional stations, including Radio Otago.

At the time of the acquisition RadioWorks had 31 per cent of the country's estimated radio advertising revenue and More FM 16 per cent.

CanWest's radio operations have been extremely successful under Impey's stewardship. As the accompanying table shows, operating earnings (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) have risen from $20.2 million in 2001 to a forecast $32.3 million for the August 2004 year.

More importantly, the radio division's operating margin has gone from 23.2 per cent to a forecast 32 per cent in the current year.

These figures demonstrate that well-run media companies can generate huge margins and be particularly attractive to investors.

According to CanWest's prospectus, RadioWorks now attracts an estimated 45 per cent of total radio advertising expenditure compared with 47 per cent four years ago.

Its main competitor is The Radio Network, which is a 50-50 joint venture between Tony O'Reilly's APN News & Media and Clear Channel, the largest radio broadcaster in the United States.

The Radio Network owns Newstalk ZB, Radio Sport, ZM, Classic Hits, Radio Hauraki and Easy Listening.

It is difficult to make a direct comparison between RadioWorks and The Radio Network because a number of Australian radio stations are included in APN's accounts and the accounting presentation is slightly different.

Nevertheless it does appear that The Radio Network has had an operating margin in excess of 30 per cent in the 2003 year compared with RadioWorks' 28.1 per cent.

One of the reasons for this is that CanWest is weak in the Auckland market. Impey has bought a number of FM frequencies in an effort to solve this deficiency in his radio portfolio.

There is scope for RadioWorks to raise its operating margin still further as Austereo Group, Australia's leading listed radio company, had an operating margin of 36 per cent in its June 2003 year.

TV3 also arrived in a blaze of publicity in November 1989 with the announcement of its public offering at $2.50 a share.

Directors were extremely optimistic and were forecasting operating earnings of more than $45 million for the March 1992 year.

Among TV3's directors were Derek Lowe, a driving force behind Radio Pacific and RadioWorks, and Impey. A dapper-looking Impey was described as a partner in the legal firm McElroy Milne, executive director of Independent Broadcasters Association and a director of Metropolitan FM, 91FM and Canterbury FM.

TV3 was placed in receivership within two years of its launch. CanWest bought a 20 per cent economic interest in 1991 and appointed a new management team from its home base in Canada. In November 1997 CanWest acquired 100 per cent of TV3.

As the accompanying table shows, CanWest's television operations have made a spectacular recovery

[riskandreturn]

Had a look at the prospectus last night and have decided to steer clear.

Div yield of 6.7% (10% gross) is not flash and growth forecast of less than 5% (from memory) looks too low for my liking.

Am pretty sceptical of their forecast EBITDA too as the percentage growth forecast is quite a bit higher than the revenues growth expected. This would suggest a reliance on cost savings.

The C4 operations is likely to hold it back for sometime yet as well, so will keep an eye on a significant change in overall result but for now i'll just be an interested spectator....

[willy_wonker]

C4 is a good idea.

MTV is very successful overseas targeting the young audiance with good disposable income.

[kittydashwood]

What a shame the C4 retooling wasn't more along the lines of Channel 4 in the UK. Music programming is lowest common denominator stuff, still the record companies pay good kickbacks for programming their latest offerings.
If only they had harnessed the creativity and skill of programme makers in this country they could of had an export business in quality TV to other wings of the Canwest International.

Julie Christie (reality queen from Touchdown) fell out with TVNZ and now has to release her dross on the likes of Sky (The Player), her contact with TV3 was a dead end as TV3 have few staff, (except news) and are light on budget or balls to pick up local programme ideas.

All up, once you get inside the station you realise what a shadow play it is, it does have one solid asset, it's news team. Although all presenters have a self life and JC's is nearly up. Look for him to waka jump next year.

Long term value? Probably not, could well fetch a premium on listing but I doubt they will be able to meet forecasts a year in. [|)]

[Placebo]

R & R you're a hard man! 6.5% div yield and 5 percent growth is an outlook most companies would die for.

Kitty I agree with your perception of TV3's setup. It is small (surprisingly so), but I think you'll agree they do rather well with the resources they have. And now that it is making money, they are in a better position to take some more risks and invest (look at The Strip, was a big punt and quite a success for them).

As the article points out, CanWest's major drivers are its radio franchises, which have large and loyal audiences. Their major risk is any sort of economic slowdown (if there is one) impacting on advertising revenues, and that doesn't appear a significant risk in the near term at least.

Looks a reasonable buy to me, but if you were looking at a media outlet to diversify your portfolio, wouldn't you look at SKY first?

[kittydashwood]

Very true Placebo, they make better use of resources than TVNZ and the culture of the station is not tainted by the bloody purges under Rolly. In fact throughout last year and for most of this year programme makers could not get broadcaster consent from TVNZ as so many heads were rolling there were few commissioning Editors or programmers who would sign on the dotted line. Several independants went under and the quality of programming continued to slip. Gibson Groups "The truth about... " is one exception, looks great shame about the scripts. I mean I just don't care about those characters, unlike The Sopranos where you just have to watch.

I have to disagree on the relative success of "The Strip". Although the first series rated well the following seasons have not lived up to expectations and NZOA will not be commissioning another series.

Having worked as a programme maker for the last ten years I feel TV3 do have a better relationship with the local industry than TVNZ.



[xx(]

[willy_wonker]

Thanks for the informative info Kitty. :)

Willy took his dog for a walk and the gossip around the doggie park is. Willy hears good stag, thus took up the allocation offered.

1. Cheap PE compare to international media companies.
2. International insto will love Canwest
3. NZSE40 stock, thus insto will need it for indexing

[zyreon]

asbsec would only give me 5k (their max+min)

[riskandreturn]

placebo - you're probably right but when you compare to other floats (rather than existing shares) such as JWI and FRE which were up around 9-12% it looks a bit light...

As for the growth, the market is talking that advertising is at the top of the cycle (I don't claim to know anything about it myself!) so I figure a growth of 5% is pretty optimistic and generally IPO's are at a point where there is some good growth left to buy into....IMHO Canwest has not done this.

On a different note (still IPO related) isn't this an ironic quote from ASB securities:


At ASB Securities - the firm organising the float of a private equity fund called StoreFund - managing director Tim Preston is fuming that "IPO fatigue" is a "media beat-up" and "a crock".

"Good, attractively priced IPOs will go out the door. There is huge demand for them. Pent-up demand."

[MeNoBatty]

Most commentators seem to have glossed over the $200m in debt on the books. Pricing seems ok but this concerns me a bit. One hic-up and they are nigh' nigh's.

Might list at premium due to market sentiment. Longterm, dubious. Radio is the only thing of interest.

Good luck.

[riskandreturn]

This will be an interesting float as from what i've read there seems to be many people punting on a premium on listing but not many looking at this being a long term hold.

This would tend to suggest that, unless the institutions buy up initially, there could be a lack of demand and many wanting to exit??

Considered having a punt myself but decided against it....time will tell whether this was an opportunity lost!!!

[Speculator]

Isn't it interesting that Gaynor and Pankhurst give extremely different figures for operating earnings.

In actual fact the relevant P/E multiples are 15.8 to 17.4 at the indicated range. The use of an EBITDA based calculation is just a method of confusing the public.

The relevant P/E can be found on page 28 of the prospectus. Please note the P/E's are much higher if you disagree with adding back amortisation to the NPAT's. I think the adding back of amortisation is justified, a view also taken by the buggars who put out the International Accounting Standards.

At the P/E's above I think the company is pretty pricy, and according to my scrip monkey (broker) higher than comparable companies in Australasia.

Interestingly, the prospectus does not forecast out more than 1 year. This is because they will not be able to show earnings growth sufficient to justify the high P/E's, I suspect.

Afraid I don't like this stock and am dosappointed with the media coverage of it. The extremely high gearing is also a concern.

[Steve]

Anyone willing to have a guess on what final price will be set tomorrow? $1.50?

[glennj]

Largely agree with two of the above posts. Have already said I'll sit out & watch this one. May buy later if it becomes better value.
Worth remembering advertising is near the top of the cycle now & growth prospects are not great.

[Gryffyn]

CanWest to set share price at lower end of range

12.07.2004
By PAM GRAHAM and PAUL PANCKHURST
CanWest MediaWorks will today reveal a share price at the low end of the $1.50 to $1.65 indicative range.

The Business Herald is picking $1.53 or $1.54.

Institutional investors who made bids on Thursday and Friday with investment bank Goldman Sachs JBWere as part of the price-setting process will get about half of the stock they asked for.

The market is tougher on floats than it was two or three months ago, which may be a factor in the MediaWorks price.

Early market soundings had suggested $1.50 to $1.75, later pulled back to $1.50 to $1.65 in the prospectus.

The art of price-setting is in finding a number that satisfies the vendor but also leaves something on the table for the new investor.

Set too high, a price may sag on listing.

Set too low, the vendor is sold short.

MediaWorks comes after share sales by Freightways, Feltex Carpets, Pumpkin Patch, and Salvus Strategic Investments.

Floats by investment companies Colville Equities and StoreFund were both pulled.

CanWest MediaWorks is one of the biggest media operators in the country.

It owns free-to-air television channels TV3 and C4 and the RadioWorks group.

Its radio brands include More FM, The Edge, The Rock, Channel Z, The Breeze, Solid Gold and Radio Pacific.

CanWest took the share offer to an equities market hovering around seven-year highs.

Investors weighed the positives of a strong advertising market, stable earnings from radio, and respected management, against the volatility of TV3's earnings.

"I would have liked to see the float a year ago, so that there would be more runway to take off on," said one fund manager, referring to a buoyant advertising market expected to slow.

"I'm lukewarm on it," said another.

Big fund managers are also concerned the company will have a relatively small "free float", the number of shares that are freely traded rather than held in big blocks.

Owner CanWest Global Group is selling between 30 per cent and 36 per cent of the company that has bought its New Zealand assets.

[Futurz]

CanWest Sells 30% of New Zealand Unit for NZ$104 Mln (Update1)
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- CanWest Global Communications Corp., Canada's largest media company, sold 30 percent of its New Zealand unit at NZ$1.53 apiece, raising NZ$104 million ($68 million) in an initial public offering.

The sale price, set following feedback from institutions, compares with the company's NZ$1.50 to NZ$1.65 target range. Manitoba-based CanWest, which sold a total of 68 million shares in CanWest MediaWorks, will list the stock in New Zealand on July 29, the company said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News.

``Given that it's at the lower end of the range, it would indicate that hopefully it's going to be a successful float,'' said Rickey Ward, who was allocated some of the shares for the $296 million of stocks he helps manage at Guardian Trust Funds Management in Auckland.

CanWest Global ``still own some shares in the company and they may well look to divest in time to come -- if you have a successful float it makes it easier for you to divest later on.''

CanWest MediaWorks has 32 percent of New Zealand's NZ$816 million annual television and radio advertising sales through its TV3 and C4 TV networks and 28 radio stations. Funds raised will allow the Canadian parent to pay debt and the local unit to expand in a market where ad sales climbed 13 percent last year.

CanWest had said it may sell as many as 13.6 million additional shares, if there was sufficient demand.

Second Media Stock

CanWest will become only the second media stock in the NZSX Media & Telecommunication Index after Independent Newspapers Ltd. sold its publishing assets to Australia's John Fairfax Holdings Ltd. Independent Newspapers' remaining asset is a controlling stake in Auckland-based Sky Network Television Ltd.

CanWest's New Zealand radio unit boosted profit 73 percent last year to NZ$6.8 million, while its TV business turned to a profit of NZ$9.7 million from a loss of NZ$5 million a year earlier, according to the company's offer document. Goldman Sachs JBWere managed the sale.

CanWest has been selling assets to reduce debt that rose to C$3.2 billion ($2.3 billion) with its debt-funded purchase of 140 newspapers from Hollinger Inc. in 2000. It posted a second- quarter loss of C$211.3 million after writing down the value of its Fireworks television and film library.

CanWest President and Chief Executive Officer Leonard Asper said the sale ``is another opportunity for CanWest to reduce its debt by monetizing some of its well-performing international assets.''

CanWest MediaWorks is also borrowing NZ$200 million in bank debt and issuing about 158.7 million shares to its Canadian parent. Proceeds to CanWest Global are expected to amount to about NZ$300 million, according to a statement release through PRNewswire.

[Gryffyn]

Good, leaving a little money on the table.

[Gryffyn]

Bus Herald got it right.

[mikescott]

And deciding not to sell the additional 13.6m shares at this low range end price = very strong signal that CanWest wants a good listing. Institutions scaled back very heavily. [:p]

[Gryffyn]

When do we hear the exact allocations though?

[zyreon]

Thumbs up

let the ramping begin

zyreon has an allocation of $5k for his co. but zyreon might also scrape up another $5k in order to also get a personal allocation *rubs hands together in a greedy like way*

[mikescott]

Now that the price it be set, Mr Brent Impey he can talk more freely now about how well CanWest is going to be doing - just like Evan Davies with Sky City. Mr Impey has a lot of upside from CanWest doing exceptionally well. [:p]:D:D[:p]

[biker]

Interested to see several anonymous fund managers quoted in the media over the last couple of days playing down the prospects on CanWest. With their allocations much less than they wanted, it is in their interests to talk the stock down as much as possible until they have the shares they need.Good luck to them,but I don't like their chances!

[biker]

This from The Age in Australia.Some parallels here?

Advertising surge for radio companies

By Christian Catalano
July 13, 2004


Commercial Radio Australia chief executive Joan Warner think it's fair to say the brand campaign has had a big impact.
Metropolitan radio is firming as the nation's fastest-developing advertising medium, stacking on 12 per cent growth to $520 million in the year to the end of June.

Although television, print and the internet stole most of the headlines during the advertising recovery of 2002-03, a PricewaterhouseCoopers study shows that radio has rebounded, putting on 16 per cent growth in the first six months of 2004 - well ahead of an already rampant total advertising market.

That compares with a sluggish 6 per cent growth in 2002-03.

Brisbane and Melbourne were the fastest-growing metropolitan markets, jumping 19 and 13 per cent respectively for the year.

Commercial Radio Australia chief executive Joan Warner said a $40 million national awareness campaign and a more clever approach to advertising sales had sparked the revival.

But she said the industry had already been in a more solid position than most people realised.

"When the ad market started coming back, people were telling us that we weren't jumping as much as TV, print and outdoor, etc," she said.

"But the problem was we didn't turn down like other mediums in 2001 and 2002. As for the latest results, I think it's fair to say the brand campaign has had a big impact. It's raised awareness of what good creative and the right use of radio can deliver."

A study that the CRA commissioned late last year found listener awareness of the advertisements was as high as 80 per cent.

"What we're hearing from advertisers and agencies is that it's really getting cut through," Ms Warner said.

Media buyers agreed yesterday that radio was looming larger in the minds of their advertising clients.

Carat Australia managing director John Neale said most of his clients had increased their reliance on radio as a proportion of their advertising campaign.

"I think that's also because advertising agencies are getting better in terms of their creative treatment," he said. "That's always been an issue for the industry in getting agencies to write good ads."

Mr Neale said several clients were also beginning to realise the effectiveness of a good radio campaign.

"Used properly, it's probably the best direct-response medium," he said.

Mr Neale said the PwC findings would also put to rest some of the concerns surrounding the issuing of new FM licences.

[Speculator]

As I said previously I think this stock is too expensive (as I thought about Pumpkin). The P/E is 16 odd.

However, I think there may be 10 cents in it on listing so I am taking a small allocation.

What has made up my mind is the unsatisfied insto demand, the retail demand and most importantly the position of the vendor.

Still, I am uncertain about it and I feel the positives marginally outway the negatives.

[Bullet]

When are these going to market?

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by Bullet

When are these going to market?

The offer closes 21 July and they list on 29th.


Four wheels move the body:Two wheels move the soul

[Gryffyn]

Biker - what do you ride?

[mikescott]

Average age of Harley Davidson owners/riders has risen from 38 years old to 54 years old in the last 20 years - so 2 wheels do move the soul nearer to its termination date!

[biker]

Gryffyn- I'd rather not say but the following is from a magazine article written about it-

......But what, as you might ask Tommy Lee, is it like? It takes full choke to get it fired on a cold morning, and a few blocks before it wants to run without. After that, this motor gives us one big, goofy happy face for the rest of the day. It's obviously hell-for-strong, from idle all the way to the ignition cutoff, and yet, for all its urge, it manages to feel friendly, eager, almost puppylike in its willingness to please. There's a slight buzz in the bars and the mirrors between 4500 and 5500 rpm, which migrates to an equally slight sizzle in the seat as the revs rise. But overall, vibration is admirably controlled. The powerband is as wide as Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico lined up end-to-end. You could stay under 6000 rpm forever--and still leave anything with four wheels way behind you. And when you want to simply disappear, just drop the six-speed down a couple, let 'er spin up past 8000 or so, and hangeth thou on. You get a great moan out of the intake system and a determined launch into the middle distance. There's no dramatic burst of power as the revs rise--like an F-18 on afterburner, it just keeps pulling. And pulling. And pulling.

It will do a standing 1/4 mile in 10.1 sec and reach 217 kph in that distance. 0-100 kph in less than 5 sec.

Just like CanWest is going to go on listing!

Needless to say it's not a Harley Davidson.

And apologies to others for the off topic comment but I didn't want to be rude and ignore the question.

[willy_wonker]

quote:Originally posted by biker

Interested to see several anonymous fund managers quoted in the media over the last couple of days playing down the prospects on CanWest. With their allocations much less than they wanted, it is in their interests to talk the stock down as much as possible until they have the shares they need.Good luck to them,but I don't like their chances!


I agree. Always do the opposite of the fund managers and you will come out tops. It is a winning formula of mine.

Biker must ride a Yamaha r1 or a Honda cbr600rr or cbr1000rr, cos those are the only bikes worth riding. Harleys are for try hards.

[MeNoBatty]

www.westcoastchoppers.com - now there's a real bike![8D]

Oh yeah, and to keep this relevent, i think canwest is too highly priced for all the reasons mentioned above.

[Gryffyn]

WW / Biker - try a Triumph Sprint ST :-)

Don't think Biker has one of those with regard to the power band mentioned but then again modern bikes these days have it all.

[danchop]

it aint no late model jappa as they have no chokes(fuel injection)10.1seconds quarter mile is quick,i guess its a yamaha vmax

[Steve]

Anyone care to speculate on whether this "over-subscribed" offer will list at a premium, or will it sink like the "over-subscribed" MPM?

[brother coy]

a ya ah ah ah maybe sucker wes sees a small premiumsd ah wait mes sees ah ya ahya hahaha ya small premiums wait ha yaahya hahha followsed nbys a big jump thrus 2 doolars hahahha:D

[k1w1]

quote: brother coy
Posted - 22/07/2004 : 9:23:50 PM
a ya ah ah ah maybe sucker wes sees a small premiumsd ah wait mes sees ah ya ahya hahaha ya small premiums wait ha yaahya hahha followsed nbys a big jump thrus 2 doolars hahahha
da bro in da know hahaa

Bro, just wanted to preserve this quote in case you erase it like you have other ones that turn out to be wrong.

Have you put your money where your mouth is ?

da bros wanna know - a ya ah ah ah ..:D:D:D:D

[mikescott]

So what's going to be the listing price for CanWest on Thursday?

Small premium (like 3 cents?) according to that loser, Coy, who went all negative on IPOs and so missed some very nice gains on Just Water and Pumpkin Patch. Just Group and Pacific Brands are now way ahead of their IPO prices as well. And Feltex is breakeven. [:p]

$1.60 sounds about right with institutions on the buy side for stock to cover index weighting requirements. Then once the stags are out of the way, watch the stock go higher - much higher.

[Steve]

I'm guessing it will list at $1.55

[Speculator]

I'm picking $1.60 - $1.65. This despite not liking the stock.

[k1w1]

I'm in on this one, lads. Lets wind her up and see if she flies.

[willy_wonker]

This will be a good listing guys. :)

Willy alos has some. :)

[Gryffyn]

I'm in too so here's hoping :-)

[zyreon]

oh, how will I be able to sleep...

[I also have an allocation]

[blackcap]

When does it list? Was it Thursday?

Does anyone know how applicants in the public pool were scaled or if they got any at all?

Thanks in advance.

[Lawso]

I understood there was no public pool.

Brokers are saying the instos couldn't get as many as they wanted and will be buying up when it lists.

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

I understood there was no public pool.

Brokers are saying the instos couldn't get as many as they wanted and will be buying up when it lists.


In the prospectus there was I think a million or two allocated for a public pool. Havnt got it here so cant check. Could have been wrong.

Think it will be 1.60 + on listing.

[PointyHat]

1.8% of the shares on offer minimum of 1.5 million shares for public pool.ASB secs could only give me firm 5000 (which is the minimum)Is that what others achieved after begging to their broker?

[blackcap]

Thanks pointy hat.

My broker only gave me 5000 as well :(

[PointyHat]

I think most people want it for the stag, it will probably surge, drop, and go back up. I guess 1.80 after settling it is not long term for me either.

[wsheridan]

The fact that I am in on this almost guarantees it will come in at a discount [B)] [B)] :D

[lewinsky]

You stole my post wsheridan! On relooking at the prospectus on P16.I see they are on a P/E ratio 0f 49.3!! Yikes. I'll have to start watching CSI and Cambo

[Speculator]

Not strictly correct. The 49 odd is after goodwill amortisation - not really a sensible deduction.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Speculator

Not strictly correct. The 49 odd is after goodwill amortisation - not really a sensible deduction.


According to current Financial Reporting Standards (FRS), it IS a sensible deduction! [:p]

[wsheridan]

Hmmm.... here's hopeing not too many people see these numbers before Thursday ... oh bugger ... i shouldn;t have posted this [B)] :D

MEDIACOM Marketing Digest 27 July 2004

ADSPEND

Where Did The Money Go?



Last week we noted the surprising decline in reported Television
Advertising Expenditure for the first half of 2004. This week
we dig more deeply and come up with some interesting results,
revealing that the TV Spend decline has occurred in May and June.

We remind you that these are reported figures, based on ratecard
value, as collected and analysed by Nielsen Media Research, and
thus do not represent actual spend data. But the results are
comparative, year on year. And, as the above graph (tracking
in millions of dollars) shows, reported TV AdSpend fell by approximately
$7 million dollars a month in both May and June, representing
a monthly decline of close to 6% - despite YOY rate increases
of around 16% each month for both TV1 and TV2, less for TV3.


That represents an effective monthly decline of 18.7%, based
on the spend levels required in May & June 2004 to maintain 2003
levels.

Fortunately, the CanWest MediaWorks share offer has now closed,
so there won't be any embarrassing investor questions about whether
the latest adboom has turned bust.

Is this a momentary glitch or the start of a new trend? Too early
to say for sure, but the indicators aren't promising. TV spending
is down in 17 of the 30 categories measured by Nielsen, in both
May and June, so the drop isn't attributable to just a couple
of industry sectors.

Notable sectors in decline:

* Automotive down 6% in May, down 14% June

* Beverages down 18% in May, down 20% in June

* Business Services down 39% May, 65% June

* Foodstuffs down 9% in both May & June

* Government down 19% May, 7% June

* Insurance down 37% in June

* Office Products down 62% in June

* Pharmaceuticals down 7% May, 11% June

* Real Estate down 39% June

* Cosmetics down 3% May, 15% June

* Transportation down 41% May, 81% June

Two swallows do not a summer make, but seventeen of them have
gotta mean something. If this is the end of the golden wether
for TV advertising, remember you read it here first - but don't
go betting your budgets (or your TV negotiating strategies) on
these initial results. We'll be keeping close watch on the next
couple of months' reported results, before we get too ready to
party!

[Bullet]

Is this going to market at 10am and does anybody know the code?

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Bullet

Is this going to market at 10am and does anybody know the code?


Bullet, Code is MWL.

[Speculator]

Steve, ICANZ are moving to international reporting standards, one of which is not to amortise goodwill. This will happen in the next year or so.

[Gryffyn]

Today's the day - picks?

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Today's the day - picks?


10:30 pre open and an 11:30 open is what I am picking.

Seriously, probably 1.60.

[Gryffyn]

Well queue is overlapped with one buyer at 172! and lowest seller at 160

After that it looks like buy 165 sell 169 so I'm happy already :-)

[willy_wonker]

Looks like it is gonna list over $165 this morning.

I heard First NZ has a profit upgrade for CanWest...

Willy is HAPPY :)


Disc: Holder

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by brother coy

a ya ah ah ah maybe sucker wes sees a small premiumsd ah wait mes sees ah ya ahya hahaha ya small premiums wait ha yaahya hahha followsed nbys a big jump thrus 2 doolars hahahha:D


Poor pathetic island peasant - when it comes to IPO, best you keep to taro farming. :D:D:D

[Gryffyn]

Sitting at 163 now so that's a quick 10c profit available but I think I'll hang on :-)

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Scooter

would not touch this one with a barge pole


Good advice, Scooter - more for the rest of us. :D:D:D

[Futurz]

Once the stags have been filled we should see an increase, good to see another successful float :)

[Gryffyn]

I think some of the bigger buyers will hold off till the stagging is done and then a small rise will follow.

[Lawso]

I'm another happy holder. Could only get $8k worth from my broker. But the debut makes me feel happier about passing up on PPL and JWI. (Went for Delegat's notes instead.)
I might even switch to TV3 News, if only they'd get rid of that nerdy guy.

[Gryffyn]

Come on, TV3 has the best babes by far!

[Lawso]

It's in the eye of the beholder, Gryff. Judy Bailey does it for me. What do others think?

[kittydashwood]

Toni Marsh makes me glad its wet

[marinesalvor]

same kitty!

[Speculator]

Colonial slappers the lot of them.

I just like to take a moment to congratulate myself at correctly picking the listing price range.

[Gryffyn]

Lawso - you are perhaps of an older age then.

TV3 has: the lovely Carolyn Robinson, perky Toni Marsh, Petra and the not too dusty Kelly Swanson Row !!!! TV1 has nothing to compare.

It's great been the part owner of such talent :-)

[mikescott]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Lawso - you are perhaps of an older age then.

TV3 has: the lovely Carolyn Robinson, perky Toni Marsh, Petra and the not too dusty Kelly Swanson Row !!!! TV1 has nothing to compare.

It's great been the part owner of such talent :-)


Belgarion = Marcer and Wonker withy the samll willy would say TV1 has Paul Holmes. :D:D:D

[willy_wonker]

Minder, you have to stop sucking willies, not a good look...:D[xx(]

[mikescott]

Wonker with the small willy, happy to leave sucking willies to you and Belgarion=Marcer. ;)

Also, learn to be a bit more original in your thoughts rather than blindly following others.:D[^][^][^]:D

[Lawso]

quote:
Lawso - you are perhaps of an older age then.
Very delicately put, Gryff. Mind you, there are those who still see me as young, rich and handsome [8D]

[brother coy]

ah ya small premium as da bro says it would hahahaha mes sees 2 doolar soon :D

[k1w1]

For those who emotionally have never left kindergarten, trading insults and chest thumping are still valid pursuits.

What is of more value is if people post on the pro's and con's of why they decided to subscribe or not to this IPO.

I'll start.

Cons for me.

-I didn't like the way the intangible assets, based on a valuation we never saw, leapt into the balance sheet just before the float.

-I didn't like the loans that were raised as well as the share float.

-I dont particularly like TV3 or Canwest as organisations. I saw the failed industry float as a negative.

Pros.

- Radio,- 1/2 share in duopoly

- TV - 1/3 share in duopoly

- High gross margins

- Barriers to entry in both fields

- Advertising is a major retailers spend which this company services.

- Bryan Gaynor gave it a favourable review.

- It was not easy to get an allocation and harder to increase it.

So I signed up.

Why did others sign up or choose to pass on this. Incidentally I think that passing was a valid option and people who did so are not losers.

[brother coy]

hahaaa minder small premium in mes books obviouly a big gain in yours sucker hahahahaaaaaa
and bys da way mes pigs are clean as i can affords a nanny to bath them everydays sucker can you affords a nanny hahhhaha:D[:p]

[brother coy]

a sucker ya missed da point mes was just sayings leave somes bacon on da table for da suckers hahahaahh

[k1w1]

It is always so enjoyable to share a topic with the mentally underprivileged ...

[brother coy]

a sucker maybes ya shoulds joins us ya might makea some money hahahaa

[biker]

K1W1 Agree with your pros plus;

- TV 1 NZ content requirement
- TV 1 Management
- Holmes has had his day.
- ZB killing itself with advertising.
- ZB programming/hosts stale esp. 8.30am until
5pm.
- C4 potential
- Canwest want to sell down more in the future and will be planning on a much better price.
- The issue was priced right ensuring a premium on listing.
-Australian media companies wanting to expand on this side of the Tasman.

[Gryffyn]

CanWest's opening show rates well with investors

30.07.2004
By STAFF REPORTER
CanWest MediaWorks shares look set to rise further after they provided investors with a profit on their first day of trading yesterday.

The owner of TV3 and TV4 and 28 radio stations hit the stock exchange running, opening at $1.65 to give investors who paid $1.53 in the float an instant 12c a share paper gain.

That was in line with expectations as the share sale was priced to ensure a good on-market performance.

Simon Botherway, of Brook Asset Management, said: "I think it went well and the float was sensibly priced.

"The company's long term prognosis is rosy."

Clark Perkins, the chief executive of lead broker for the float JBWere Goldman Sachs, said: "It has been a long journey."

TV3 first listed in a blaze of publicity in November 1989 but was placed in receivership two years later.

Canadian media giant CanWest bought by stages and built the business up.

The entire business is currently riding a firm advertising market.

CanWest Global Communications considered a trade sale of its New Zealand assets two and a half years ago, but eventually opted for share sale and stock exchange listing.

It retains 70 per cent of CanWest MediaWorks, the company that bought its New Zealand assets.

It did not take the opportunity to sell more shares in an over allotment, which meant a small number of shares were sold, which helped ensure yesterday's market debut.

CanWest MediaWorks chief executive Brent Impey said nothing had materially changed since the CanWest prospectus was prepared.

"I'm confident we will hit forecasts for 2004," he said.

The company's best leading indicators were advertising bookings for the quarter starting September 1 for television and the 12 month plans for radio advertising. These were firm.

Impey said he was not too worried about yesterday's 25 basis point increase in interest rates by the Reserve Ban, which had been foreshadowed over the past three to four months.

"I would expect it would cause a minor slowdown, but I'm not expecting it to have a significant effect," he said.

Perkins said the interest rate environment was now less conducive to raising capital.

"I think we would say the second half for IPOs is likely to be a little quieter."

The CanWest share sale was successfully executed when other floats were being pulled due to a "fatigued" market.

The floats that have gone ahead include Pumpkin Patch, Feltex Carpets, Just Water International, Kingfish and Mike Pero Mortgages. Those withdrawn were Storefund and Colville Equities.

CanWest MediaWorks is made up of the New Zealand assets of CanWest, which were sold down so that the Canadian company could repay debt.

[Gryffyn]

That's close :-)

[Lawso]

Michael Laws on CanWest's Radio Pacific is the best thing to have happened to talkback radio. I hardly ever bother with ZB.

[Gryffyn]

He does a pretty good job - I like his pieces int eh SST and the odd one in North & South etc.

[wsheridan]

Shares are looking quite nice now.

Ad bookings, I hear, are very good across the industry with many price rises.

Also, TV3 (along with Prime) are winning in both the rating and adspend wars.

[Gryffyn]

Was a good IPO.

Disc: MWL

[brother coy]

justa lika da bro says sucker 2 doolars soon hahahahhaaa:D:D:D:D:D
and then probably 3 doolars hahahaa

[Lawso]

Up another 2c so far today to 181 :)

[cujodog]

Ah that would be thumbs up!!!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3506493a1823,00.html

[cujodog]

Ah that would be thumbs down!!!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3506456a13,00.html