POO Competition - place your bets.

[Huang Chung]

OK, we've read hundreds of pages here on sharetrader on peak oil, price of oil, $200 oil and all the ramifications thereof. We've twilighted in the desert.....some of you have even been SKOLded, and we've all had the pleasure of reading Tricha's daily dose of technicolour doom.

We've theorised endlessly, but now is the time to put our money where our mouth is, so to speak, and guess the price of oil at the end of this year.

This thread (my thread dammit!) is a competition, a bit of fun. It's not the place for more theory, postings other sites etc.

The competition is...to guess the price of light sweet crude in USD, as quoted on the Nymex website, as at close of trade Friday 19 December 2008. The winner will, pretty obviously, be the one who gets closest to the closing price. No prize, just the joy of winning.

One entry per person, and no correspondence will be entered into.

Entries will remain open for a fortnight....midnight (my time) Friday 18 July to be precise.

I really hope everyone who actively participates in the oil discussions has a go....it's only for a bit of fun.:D

Place your bets!

I'll start with $123.00

[bob.not.a.builder]

$165 I hope last around here till Dec :)

[MrDevine]

Correction back to $118

[tricha]

OK, we've read hundreds of pages here on sharetrader on peak oil, price of oil, $200 oil and all the ramifications thereof. We've twilighted in the desert.....some of you have even been SKOLded, and we've all had the pleasure of reading Tricha's daily dose of technicolour doom.



Hey Huang, - I do not see u posting here on the Good News Week - post here if you've heard some :-)

Unfortunately as it is, I can not post anything on it, the only good news and it is personally selfish, is oil is out there.

Anyway back to the oil price, anywhere between $100 - $200 a barrel.

So do me a favour Huang and pick a # out for me randomly between 100 and 200 ;)

[Huang Chung]

Hey Huang, - I do not see u posting here on the Good News Week - post here if you've heard some :-)

Unfortunately as it is, I can not post anything on it, the only good news and it is personally selfish, is oil is out there.

Anyway back to the oil price, anywhere between $100 - $200 a barrel.

So do me a favour Huang and pick a # out for me randomly between 100 and 200 ;)

C'mon T, you can do better than that. Give us a price.:cool:

PS....I bet you have a win on the Melbourne Cup each year....by backing every horse in the race. ;)

[JBmurc]

thats a hard one ..... I'd say above 100 below 150 but believe there will be spikes above 160 before the yrs out as for 19 th dec put me down for- $126US bbl

[zorba]

If the Israelis attack Iran, then US$178

If no attack, then US$158

Z

[Huang Chung]

Zorba..you can only have one bet.

By Royal Decree (me:)), I'll split the difference and put you down at $168, unless you come back with another figure.

[Corporate]

Whats the best web site to get updates on the price?

[Skol]

Good idea HC, I'll stick with my prediction on the other thread of $90

[777]

Whats the best web site to get updates on the price?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

[777]

A wild guess $142.50. Basically a little below current levels.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

$102.35 thanks

[redzone]

for me ...$108.00 ...with a rise in the US $ coming

[bermuda]

Well I always said $US150 per barrel by year end so I will stick with that. $US250 by the end of 2009 though.

[JackSprat]

$200 oil
$20 Natural gas.............

Why?

Of the 120 giant oil fields in the world most are 50yrs + old and delivering 5% less each yr.
Production has passed its peak, not the price.
Saudi, Russia, Iran, United AE, Norway, Mexico are using more exporting less.
6.6mill new cars trucks vans will hit the roads of China this yr.
India is outstripping China in this area.
America has to have oil. They'll pay whatever it takes.
Huge storms are predicted around the Gulf of Mexico due to the La Nina effects and any such storms could cause huge spikes in the price of oil and gas during their summer and fall.
Natural gas prod. in the US has plateaued, demand has increased.

Precis from TRICHA's post:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=4033&page=42

[KentBrockman]

Here's a bold one: US$ 87

[da puntzda]

Having got a copy of "twilight in the desert" from the library (thanks Bermuda - good read so far) - page 95 details global oil demand was 70 million barrels a day in 1995 and 86 million barrels a day in 2005.

Demand is presumably still growing, for example The Herald stated today that 1,000 new cars are added per day in Beijing, (wonder waht is happening in India and teh rest of China). Athough recent price rises will surely be tapering off demand somewhat in other economies.

New oil sources are thin on the ground and some significant bottlenecks will prevent it being available too soon, rig availability, refinery capacity,etc

Difficult to call middle east prospect of war premiums, or act of god supply side problems (weather etc).

Leads me to pick $175.00

I also think this is a positive development fo the long term environmental health of the planet.

[shasta]

Having got a copy of "twilight in the desert" from the library (thanks Bermuda - good read so far) - page 95 details global oil demand was 70 million barrels a day in 1995 and 86 million barrels a day in 2005.

Demand is presumably still growing, for example The Herald stated today that 1,000 new cars are added per day in Beijing, (wonder waht is happening in India and teh rest of China). Athough recent price rises will surely be tapering off demand somewhat in other economies.

New oil sources are thin on the ground and some significant bottlenecks will prevent it being available too soon, rig availability, refinery capacity,etc

Difficult to call middle east prospect of war premiums, or act of god supply side problems (weather etc).

Leads me to pick $175.00

I also think this is a positive development fo the long term environmental health of the planet.

HC - Put me down for $US105 :cool:

[Huang Chung]

Good to see people having a go....quite a range of predictions, predictably so no doubt.

Keep 'em coming. ;)

[brettdale]

The republicans want to win an election, so $99.

[COLIN]

I was going to say $175 but I see that someone else has beaten me to it.
I'll take $178 then, please (on basis that I think my $175 was likely to be on the light side).
I tend to be a very conservative sort of bloke, not easily convinced by doomsday talk (e.g. I'm a strong climate change sceptic) but I have recently been converted to the concept of Peak Oil Production being upon us (perhaps we should be using the acronym POP rather than PO, for the sake of those slow learners who keep harping about all the oil that is still there somewhere under the earth's surface). Its going to take a long and costly time to develop sufficient volumes of alternative energy to make up the demand/supply gap.

[tricha]

Copied of my last post on the bubble, $US170 will do just fine Huang

I have been reading all I can on the global oil and gas markets in recent months and nothing I have read in multiple industry journals and company presentations suggests to me anything other than the oil price going to $US170 in the medium term.

[Joe King]

My guess, is $115, based on no more Bush. Incoming pres. will want to make a good impression before succumbing to the Generals.
Cheers and good luck all.
JK

[Grand Uber]

Im in for $183

[Rif-Raf]

I expect a sharp correction at some point down to perhaps to $100 then start moving back up. My entry is $119

[Dr_Who]

If China and India crashes $50bbl.

If all else is stable my guess is oil will be around $150bbl.

My assumption of $150 is based on OPEC prediction of $170 and investment bank analyst predictions of $150-$200. So, my prediction is in the lower end.

[bermuda]

Well I always said $US150 per barrel by year end so I will stick with that. $US250 by the end of 2009 though.

Dr Who,
You may have my $US150.

I will change and go with $US161.

[macduffy]

My thinking's similar to Rif-Raf's.
I'll go for $111.

;)

[STRAT]

Here's a bold one: US$ 87A brave but good call I reckon Kent. Its all just a bubble anyway:eek:

I think it will go up some more over the next month or 3 but december? No clue really but my guess is it will retrace by then so my bet is $122.

[airedale]

Put me down for US$ 159, thanks HC

[FrankEd]

My limited following of POO... i'm gonna say $163

Cheers!

[georgeofthejungle]

$101

Thanks HC

[underDOG]

$112.50

maybe old support/ resistance


cheers

[zacman]

My lucky number ... $157

zacman

[zorba]

Zorba..you can only have one bet.

By Royal Decree (me:)), I'll split the difference and put you down at $168, unless you come back with another figure.

Good one HC ..... yes put me in for $168 !!

Z

[shasta]

OK, we've read hundreds of pages here on sharetrader on peak oil, price of oil, $200 oil and all the ramifications thereof. We've twilighted in the desert.....some of you have even been SKOLded, and we've all had the pleasure of reading Tricha's daily dose of technicolour doom.

We've theorised endlessly, but now is the time to put our money where our mouth is, so to speak, and guess the price of oil at the end of this year.

This thread (my thread dammit!) is a competition, a bit of fun. It's not the place for more theory, postings other sites etc.

The competition is...to guess the price of light sweet crude in USD, as quoted on the Nymex website, as at close of trade Friday 19 December 2008. The winner will, pretty obviously, be the one who gets closest to the closing price. No prize, just the joy of winning.

One entry per person, and no correspondence will be entered into.

Entries will remain open for a fortnight....midnight (my time) Friday 18 July to be precise.

I really hope everyone who actively participates in the oil discussions has a go....it's only for a bit of fun.:D

Place your bets!

I'll start with $123.00

HC

Lets be cheeky & see if Sharetrader will sponsor a prize for the poster with the correct/nearest oil price, perhaps with petrol vouchers for the correct amount? :D

You may need to edit your initial post on this thread?

C'mon Sharetrader :D

[bear]

$150 for me thanks HC

Bear

[clearasmud]

fl**k you Arabs theres a way out of this mess but crude will be $145 Dec19 2008!

[drillfix]

I aint just a U junkie, so if this comp is still runnin, then put me down for $148

what time frame are we talking about here? next week, next month?

[Dr_Who]

Hey Huang Chung tonight. Can we get a list to see what the consensus is? Cheers.

[temptation]

There's lots of talk about the POO going down, but no explanations why it should. It's just over 5 months to judgement day, and the POO has gone up $55 in the last 5 months. I'll bet on the next 5 months being like the last 5 months, and allow for some softness in December - $195 please!

[redzone]

why not add what we think the DOW will be on the same day........Oil 108....DOW 10,890

[Huang Chung]

why not add what we think the DOW will be on the same day........Oil 108....DOW 10,890

I'll accept your POO bet redzone....you might want to run your own com re the dow. :D

I'll try and get a summary of the bets so far posted shortly...tonight or tomorrow.

[Huang Chung]

32 entries so far....great stuff!

Only three people suggesting a price below $100.00 a bbl. Exactly half expect a price at the end of the year higher than the current price.

Here's the betting so far....

Alphabetically:

777 $142.50
airedale $159.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $161.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
brettdale $99.00
clearasmud $145.00
COLIN $178.00
Da Puntzda $175.00
Dr Who $150.00
drillfix $148.00
FrankEd $163.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Huang Chung $123.00
JackSprat $200.00
JBmurc $126.00
Joe King $115.00
KentBrockman $87.00
macduffy $111.00
MrDevine $118.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
redzone $108.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
shasta $105.00
Skol $90.00
STRAT $122.00
temptation $195.00
tricha $170.00
underDOG $112.50
zacman $157.00
zorba $168.00


By Price:

KentBrockman $87.00
Skol $90.00
brettdale $99.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
macduffy $111.00
underDOG $112.50
Joe King $115.00
MrDevine $118.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
STRAT $122.00
Huang Chung $123.00
JBmurc $126.00
777 $142.50
clearasmud $145.00
drillfix $148.00
bear $150.00
Dr Who $150.00
zacman $157.00
airedale $159.00
bermuda $161.00
FrankEd $163.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
zorba $168.00
tricha $170.00
Da Puntzda $175.00
COLIN $178.00
Grand Uber $183.00
temptation $195.00
JackSprat $200.00

[Financially dependant]

I will go for $199 just below a magical resistance level!

[whirly]

Any more than $179 and I wont be roadtripping in the Holden this summer, so put me down for that. Thanks HC

[mark100]

US$112 by end of 2008

[boxing_beaver]

$147.14 (gogo calculator random num generator) :D

[SMan]

$US138.44 :) - not going either direction in a hurry from now.

[Skol]

Average of 39 punts is $141.32

[Laxmi]

I doubt that oil will fall by much more than $20 this year due to geo political tensions and supply issues. (not to mention the speculators using oil as an inflation hedge)
The possible upside is unknown and depends to some degree on how the value of the US dollar stands up. All bets are off if the US economy suddenly nosedives due to some financial crisis.

However Dec 19th ties in with the peak probability window for an airstrike by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Therefore my prediction is $188, although if an airstrike did eventuate, $188 would be conservative.

[BigBob]

Higher than now & down from a peak of about US$190...

US$165 it is...

[Xerof]

$136.50 for me please

[metal mickey]

i reckon about US$147.77 to be precise.

[Packersoldkidney]

$97 US a barrell.

[The Plunger]

Sharp correction to sub $100, then $109 at year end.
Also CSM bubble will burst IMHO.
Henry Hub Gas $9.50

Best sites for prices

http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodities/energy?mkt=ENERGY
https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml

[digger]

191 and a few words as computer says 191 on it's own is too short

[Huang Chung]

Entires so far:

Alphabetically:

777 $142.50
airedale $159.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $161.00
BigBob $165.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
boxing beaver $147.14
brettdale $99.00
clearasmud $145.00
COLIN $178.00
Da Puntzda $175.00
digger $191.00
Dr Who $150.00
drillfix $148.00
Financially dependant $199.00
FrankEd $163.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Huang Chung $123.00
JackSprat $200.00
JBmurc $126.00
Joe King $115.00
KentBrockman $87.00
Laxmi $188.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
metal mickey $147.77
MrDevine $118.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
redzone $108.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
shasta $105.00
Skol $90.00
Sman $138.44
STRAT $122.00
temptation $195.00
The Plunger $109.00
tricha $170.00
underDOG $112.50
whirly $179.00
Xerof $136.50
zacman $157.00
zorba $168.00



Price Order:

KentBrockman $87.00
Skol $90.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
brettdale $99.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
underDOG $112.50
Joe King $115.00
MrDevine $118.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
STRAT $122.00
Huang Chung $123.00
JBmurc $126.00
Xerof $136.50
Sman $138.44
777 $142.50
clearasmud $145.00
boxing beaver $147.14
metal mickey $147.77
drillfix $148.00
bear $150.00
Dr Who $150.00
zacman $157.00
airedale $159.00
bermuda $161.00
FrankEd $163.00
BigBob $165.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
zorba $168.00
tricha $170.00
Da Puntzda $175.00
COLIN $178.00
whirly $179.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Laxmi $188.00
digger $191.00
temptation $195.00
Financially dependant $199.00
JackSprat $200.00

Just under one week to go until the competition closes.

[Tok3n]

My entry

$87.53

thanks!

[Dr_Who]

All those with predictions of $120 and above must be long on oil... LOL

What's the price? 100 shares in NZO? :D

[pedro.nz]

$174:50 - Anybody's guess really, although once Iran remembers to fill up the gas tank on all their missiles, then it's sure to be a lot higher than this...

[Packersoldkidney]

$174:50 - Anybody's guess really, although once Iran remembers to fill up the gas tank on all their missiles, then it's sure to be a lot higher than this...

That is an amazing chart by any standard.

[LKSteve]

Oil Price Dec '08. $250 a barrel.

[Shrewd Crude]

Huang chung,
when does the competition close... Im waiting until the last moment...
:cool:
.^sc

[Huang Chung]

Huang chung,
when does the competition close... Im waiting until the last moment...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy...midnight this Friday. See first post for full details.

Good luck. :)

[trackers]

I'll take $149 please :)

[absolut-advance]

Put me down for $142.23

(average of everyone so far lol ;) )

CheerZ

AA

[Huang Chung]

Just a reminder to anyone still wishing to enter the comp that entries close midnight this Friday (Brisbane time).

If you are wondering what this is all about, see the first post on this thread.

Regards

HC.

[Bilo]

Huang, please put me down for USD149
thanks

[scorp57]

i'll take 112us

[Taijon]

Hi HC please stick me down for $93.

[Dr_Who]

Mick and Shrewd where's ya pick? :rolleyes:

[SEC]

$116.50 thanks HC.

SEC

[Hoags]

193 USD for me.

The US will probably be at war with Iran.

- Hoags

[Serpie]

I'll take $123.95 thanks HC

[The Big Ease]

according to my calculations: 112.1205

[slam]

US$138.00 for me

[CAM]

$127.50 for me please

May even be higher as winter in the USA then so demand for heating might keep things up

[underDOG]

anyone notice a pattern with all the latest calls on POO;)

[Huang Chung]

POO comp closes midnight tonight.

Last chance to enter.

[bermuda]

POO comp closes midnight tonight.

Last chance to enter.

I will take my bid back to $1.50 which was my original stab and share it with Dr Who.

Delete $1.61...that will come next year.

I hope the oil price doesnt go down further as it will put on hold a huge number of very good alternative energy projects.

And the world needs every new project.

Oil, a precious finite resource.

[Gofish.]

$128.50 for me.

Its heading down before it really goes up.

Thanks
Gofish

[underDOG]

POO comp closes midnight tonight.

Last chance to enter.


good call HC, should have done it last week, the bulls are getting nervous:D

[Shrewd Crude]

put me down for $132.50...
...
If Iran Gets invaded then $200 US over night.....
As An individual I can guarantee $200 US per barrel as a certainty... I cannot guarantee when...
I am figuring that prices will settle down for abit and pick up at some stage and kaboom...
the bulls have struck all the major points which still stand...
nothing is likely to change, the fundamentals will come back stronger...
This Comp is a complete gamble for the rest of the year, but the long term (next few years) is very very clear...and even more so clear for the fact that little change is taking place to move away from our reliance on Oil...
I make no bones about that...
thank you...
:cool:
.^sc

[jonathan76]

I feel oil price will dive to $100 due nothing to fundamentals except market sentiments, with inflation running high and people boycotting oil, it will goes down to correction point. However, My entry will be $149 as winter is coming in the states and china and oil price will usually rise back up again after October. people doesn't realise, oil is actually a seasonal commodity.

so my entry will be $149 and it will stay around that range throughout to June next year as anything more than that, we will have economies shut down due to extreme inflation, anything below $150, renewable energies industry will not take off. Political play will ensure oil stay around $130 to $150 mark to allow renewable industries to open up, so is to allow oil producer to have enough revenue to offset the emmission trading scheme coming up in 2010.oil producer will also keep it at that mark as they seems to have found the highest comfort level for consumers without too much impact on the world economies. they will be crazy to try to push it higher than $150.

My prediction, when Oil price soar to above $140 recently, GOLD stocks went up as my prediction, I should have convert all to GOLD stock and I could make a killing, however, I was too busy with work and was burned with this bear market which came earlier by one month due to my prediction.

now with oil price correcting towards $100, gold stock will fall to say $800 (estimate) that should be the buy signal to accumulate both oil and gold again and when oil price starts to increase again to $135, I will sell down on oil stocks and hold 100% GOLD portfolio. However, now I'm stuck with my stupid oil stocks :)

so my entry will be $149

[Huang Chung]

OK, times up.

The competition is now closed.

I'll post the final list of entries tomorrow.

HC

[Dr_Who]

Jonathan, I like your short term assessment. Winter will see oil back up to above $130 in the northern hemisphere. Once oil comes back abit there will be a false sense of security settling back into the psychic of the Americans and they will start using it up like water again.

Oil should bounce around $110-$150. Good trading range. :D

[Huang Chung]

OK, here is the final list of entrants:

Alphabetically:

777 $142.50
absolut-advance $142.23
airedale $159.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $150.00
BigBob $165.00
Bilo $149.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
boxing beaver $147.14
brettdale $99.00
CAM $127.50
clearasmud $145.00
COLIN $178.00
Da Puntzda $175.00
digger $191.00
Dr Who $150.00
drillfix $148.00
Financially dependant $199.00
FrankEd $163.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
Gofish $128.50
Grand Uber $183.00
Hoags $193.00
Huang Chung $123.00
JackSprat $200.00
JBmurc $126.00
Joe King $115.00
jonathan 76 $149.00
KentBrockman $87.00
Laxmi $188.00
LKSteve $250.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
metal mickey $147.77
MrDevine $118.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
pedro.nz $174.50
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
redzone $108.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
scorp 57 $112.00
SEC $116.50
Serpie $123.95
shasta $105.00
Shrewd Crude $132.50
Skol $90.00
slam $138.00
Sman $138.44
STRAT $122.00
Taijon $93.00
temptation $195.00
The Big Ease $112.12
The Plunger $109.00
Tok3n $87.53
trackers $149.00
tricha $170.00
underDOG $112.50
whirly $179.00
Xerof $136.50
zacman $157.00
zorba $168.00

Price Order:

KentBrockman $87.00
Tok3n $87.53
Skol $90.00
Taijon $93.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
brettdale $99.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
scorp 57 $112.00
The Big Ease $112.12
underDOG $112.50
Joe King $115.00
SEC $116.50
MrDevine $118.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
STRAT $122.00
Huang Chung $123.00
Serpie $123.95
JBmurc $126.00
CAM $127.50
Gofish $128.50
Shrewd Crude $132.50
Xerof $136.50
slam $138.00
Sman $138.44
absolut-advance $142.23
777 $142.50
clearasmud $145.00
boxing beaver $147.14
metal mickey $147.77
drillfix $148.00
Bilo $149.00
jonathan 76 $149.00
trackers $149.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $150.00
Dr Who $150.00
zacman $157.00
airedale $159.00
FrankEd $163.00
BigBob $165.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
zorba $168.00
tricha $170.00
pedro.nz $174.50
Da Puntzda $175.00
COLIN $178.00
whirly $179.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Laxmi $188.00
digger $191.00
Hoags $193.00
temptation $195.00
Financially dependant $199.00
JackSprat $200.00
LKSteve $250.00


Overall, 61 people entered, which was an excellent result.

The average forecast price at the end of the year, taking into account all of the entries, is $141.40.


Good luck!

[Serpie]

Thanks for organising this HC. Good fun.

[Skol]

Yep, thanks HC, should be fun.

[underDOG]

OK, here is the final list of entrants:

Overall, 61 people entered, which was an excellent result.

The average forecast price at the end of the year, taking into account all of the entries, is $141.40.


Good luck!

well ,I think by the look of the American economy and the so called wind down after Beijing, anyone north of the $141 is dreaming right now.


happy with $112.50

[JackSprat]

Taken out this last entry. Not quite happy with it

[Tok3n]

Anything over $100 is absurd given the global economic picture.

In some ways for us oilers, $100 is fine e.g. still plenty of margin + won't hit your pocket at the pumps either.....unless you live in NZ with our falling dollar :(.

[ELYOB]

Read this .....out last night on the news wire .

" Commodities

Oil prices rise above 126 dollars

LONDON - Oil prices climbed further on Tuesday, trading above 126 dollars in London, a level described as "abnormal" by OPEC president Chakib Khelil.

Brent North Sea crude for September delivery gained 74 cents to 126.58 dollars a barrel. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September advanced 71 cents to 125.44 dollars a barrel.

Khelil said Tuesday that crude oil prices above 120 dollars a barrel were "abnormal" and could fall to around 78 dollars under the right circumstances. "If the dollar continues to strengthen and the political situation (regarding Iran) improves, then the long-term prices will be about 78 dollars," Khelil told reporters in Jakarta, adding the market was well-supplied with oil.

A strong US currency weighs on demand for dollar-priced goods because they become more expensive for buyers holding weaker currencies. Oil prices had struck record highs above 147 dollars a barrel on July 11 as the US unit weakened and owing to tensions over Iran.

They have since fallen by more than 20 dollars on concerns that the global economic slowdown will weigh on energy demand, particularly in the United States -- the world's biggest consumer of oil."

[Huang Chung]

Oil was about US$144 when I kicked this comp off one month and one day ago.

Tonight it's sitting around $118.......

Seems like its moving down as fast as it moved up.

[bermuda]

Oil was about US$144 when I kicked this comp off one month and one day ago.

Tonight it's sitting around $118.......

Seems like its moving down as fast as it moved up.

I remember a few years ago that Greenspan forecast US25 /bbl in 2008.

As I said on another post

This is a very fascinating equation.

Supply ( at a maximum and depleteing ) versus increasing demand offset by demand destruction.

Perhaps by 'artificially ' going down to $70/bbl we might save the world economy by pulling out some special magic card at the last moment. But I wouldnt bet on it.

Delayed..... Twilight in the Desert

[underDOG]

well ,I think by the look of the American economy and the so called wind down after Beijing, anyone north of the $141 is dreaming right now.


happy with $112.50



looking good at $114:D

[JackSprat]

Put this comment in Peak Oil

[STRAT]

looking good at $114:DLookin real good today SS,
Still a ways to go till December though. Clearly by the varied articles floating around nobody has any real clue where its going except those doing the manipilating:rolleyes:

[tricha]

Lookin real good today SS,
Still a ways to go till December though. Clearly by the varied articles floating around nobody has any real clue where its going except those doing the manipilating:rolleyes:

The OIL Price = Demand destruction - decline - emerging economys consumption - the Seven Deadly Sins.

In short u r right Strat, toss that coin.;)

[Packersoldkidney]

Fairly happy with my number, but think it might slip lower than that come Christmas time. In other words, I think oil will go sub-100, but by how far is the question.

[ELYOB]

Oil US$106.97 bblo Texes Sweet crude as I post . Oil will have a better week coming as 2 things going for it ?

1. OPEC meeting on Sept 9th , review production , and expect action ,

2. We have a friend in IKE* , which I analyse to be over top the O&G prducing assets in the GOM by next Thursday . It is headed in the right direction for a smashing time on the oil patch .


* IKE is an Atlantic Monster that is there to enhance the oil industry profits

[Huang Chung]

Just over 2 months into the comp and oil has fallen from US $144 a barrel to US $106.

Those closest to being on the money right now are:

georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00

Where will we be in another two months? :rolleyes:

[Tok3n]

I think everyone that picked $110+ its now out of the picture.

Winners will be the ones that picked under $100 :) + the world economy as well.

[shasta]

Just over 2 months into the comp and oil has fallen from US $144 a barrel to US $106.

Those closest to being on the money right now are:

georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00

Where will we be in another two months? :rolleyes:

Wouldn't that make me the closest :D

I still say $US90/bbl is the floor that OPEC will allow as the bottom.

I also think those between $US100 - $US120/bbl are in the running

[underDOG]

yup

$112.50 it will be:D

very happy still just above $110, and WAY below $147 when i remember the hype freaks gaining control not soo soo long ago:eek:

[georgeofthejungle]

yup

$112.50 it will be:D

very happy still just above $110, and WAY below $147 when i remember the hype freaks gaining control not soo soo long ago:eek:

The "hype freaks" are now a lot quieter! I'm sure POO will fluctuate around a lot over the next few months but it will end up where it is now - $101! :p

[STRAT]

A brave but good call I reckon Kent. Its all just a bubble anyway:eek:

I think it will go up some more over the next month or 3 but december? No clue really but my guess is it will retrace by then so my bet is $122.Im still happy with my call. It will go back up after the US elections.

[ELYOB]

oils aint oils [anymore]!

[jonathan76]

ok, the signals are here, the next direction for oil will be back up to $150 or even more as I've signed in for this competition.

US is going to print money to bail out the financials which mean dollars will depreciate and commodities wiill rise back.

lets see the ride

[Corporate]

113.88 this morning! up 8.92%!

[Corporate]

WTF just happened??

Nymex Crude Future 128.10 23.55 22.52 14:24

half an hour ago it was $113.88

[Huang Chung]

This might help explain things....

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/sep2008/db20080922_901313.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5

[Packersoldkidney]

I think now that it is fairly obvious that the price of oil is, day-to-day fluctuations aside, heading downwards - I initially picked $97 a barrell but think that that figure is , by quite a way, too large.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

..... so good to see you back on deck and posting, POK ... !~!

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[Packersoldkidney]

:)

..... so good to see you back on deck and posting, POK ... !~!

have a great day

paul

:)

=====


Thanks, mate.

:)

[The Big Ease]

86 dollars!

[Dr_Who]

So much for the investments bank prediction of $200bbl... LOL

[Skol]

So much for the investments bank prediction of $200bbl... LOL


The "experts" who have just been marched out of their offices.

Unless there's nuclear war you're the man Kent. Might be $50 soon.

[Huang Chung]

Oh Dear...not a single entrant had picked the oil price to be this low. If the comp was over now, Kent Brockman would be the winner, and with a price that's about $10 too rich.

What an amazing couple of months it's been.

Still a couple of months to go...does the downward trend continue or do we get a reversal? :rolleyes:.





Price Order:

KentBrockman $87.00
Tok3n $87.53
Skol $90.00
Taijon $93.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
brettdale $99.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
scorp 57 $112.00
The Big Ease $112.12
underDOG $112.50
Joe King $115.00
SEC $116.50
MrDevine $118.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
STRAT $122.00
Huang Chung $123.00
Serpie $123.95
JBmurc $126.00
CAM $127.50
Gofish $128.50
Shrewd Crude $132.50
Xerof $136.50
slam $138.00
Sman $138.44
absolut-advance $142.23
777 $142.50
clearasmud $145.00
boxing beaver $147.14
metal mickey $147.77
drillfix $148.00
Bilo $149.00
jonathan 76 $149.00
trackers $149.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $150.00
Dr Who $150.00
zacman $157.00
airedale $159.00
FrankEd $163.00
BigBob $165.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
zorba $168.00
tricha $170.00
pedro.nz $174.50
Da Puntzda $175.00
COLIN $178.00
whirly $179.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Laxmi $188.00
digger $191.00
Hoags $193.00
temptation $195.00
Financially dependant $199.00
JackSprat $200.00
LKSteve $250.00


The average forecast price at the end of the year, taking into account all of the entries, is $141.40.

[KentBrockman]

Oh Dear...not a single entrant had picked the oil price to be this low. If the comp was over now, Kent Brockman would be the winner, and with a price that's about $10 too rich.

What an amazing couple of months it's been.

Still a couple of months to go...does the downward trend continue.............]? :rolleyes:.

No end in sight:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/10/11/exxon-oil-closer-markets-equity-cx_ra_1010markets33.html

Excerpt:"Lebow said he believes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably reduce production at their meeting in November, but he thinks oil demand will fall faster than OPEC can cut. “It’s not clear whether the decision will have any effect on the market,” he said."

[Shrewd Crude]

hc-
What an amazing couple of months it's been.

Still a couple of months to go...does the downward trend continue or do we get a reversal? :rolleyes:.

How far oil falls will depend on how much further markets fall...
:cool:
.^sc

[Stranger_Danger]

No, how much markets fall will depend on how far oil falls.

We're watching the destruction of an industry. Any idea which one? (note : it isn't the oil industry!)

[The Big Ease]

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

[STRAT]

Energy stocks up on Halliburton results, OPEC

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Energy shares jumped on Monday as buying continued after the sector's first positive week since the credit crisis took hold, with Halliburton lifting oil services shares on its third-quarter results and less-than-dire outlook.


The broad market also provided a lift, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJ (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes//$dj): Dow Jones Industrial Average

http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?style=1032&size=1&type=256&uf=8192&time=1dy&freq=1mi&symb=$DJ

[stevesnz]

$75

I'd also i'd like to win a prize if i'm most wrong =)

[Huang Chung]

$75

I'd also i'd like to win a prize if i'm most wrong =)


Steve...are you a.k.a. LKsteve... a.k.a the lousiest picker in the POO comp?

[STRAT]

Oil price and the $700B bailout by Steve Austin (the 6 million dollar man:D)- 2008/10/06

As the US house of representatives voted to increase the dollar supply by $700B, many are wondering what effect this will have on energy prices.
History is full of tragic examples where helicopter money (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap) triggered rampant inflation and widespread economic hardship. Let's take a look at some of these examples in the light of today:

Crushed by World War One's debt, the Weimar republic kept printing money and giving it directly to consumers and businesses to buy votes and help them cope with ever increasing prices.
http://www.oil-price.net/pics/WeimarInflation.jpg
Within a few years the Mark had devaluated so much that a postage stamp cost fifty billion Mark and everyone's life savings had been wiped out. Mark bills were worth less than the paper they were printed on. As the famous picture above illustrates, in the face of galloping energy prices, it had become cheaper to heat one's house by burning money than coal. Although one US dollar is still worth more than the paper it is printed on, as of 2008 one US penny contains 2 cents worth of metal. Although oil prices seem high today, they are kept artificially low because many oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia peg their currencies to the US dollar. When the dollar is devaluated, these countries currencies and national economies are threatened by inflation and this is an incentive for them to let their currencies float and appreciate. In 2006 Kuwait unpegged its currency from the US dollar and as other oil-producing nations follow suit, expect energy prices to rise.
Currently oil is bought and sold on the world market in dollars, so everyone needs to first buy dollars in order to buy oil. We have reported on a trend for oil-producing countries to sell oil in Euros instead of Dollars. (http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en#20080206) As more oil-producing nations fear the dollar is becoming "funny money" and demand payment in Euros, the world's need for Dollars will be greatly reduced. This is basic supply/demand economics.
Simply put, the average American household is already too much in debt and this scares banks from lending any money. Giving $700B to these banks will not change the fact that lending to bad debtors is a risky venture. It is safer for banks to invest this money in commodities (oil and gold) which do keep up with inflation than to issue loans that cannot be repaid. So expect this bailout package to give a speculative boost to oil prices.

[stevesnz]

Steve...are you a.k.a. LKsteve... a.k.a the lousiest picker in the POO comp?

nah different steve

[bermuda]

Tonight's the night. The IEA report becomes official.

The IEA finally accept peak oil. A 180 degree turn. Will the market react?

I hope so but I rather think with all that's going on, people are too confused to understand.

Sooner or later the oil price is going to explode...although I do concede that if we can keep receeding at 9% per annum we wont have a problem.

[Corporate]

Tonight's the night. The IEA report becomes official.

The IEA finally accept peak oil. A 180 degree turn. Will the market react?

I hope so but I rather think with all that's going on, people are too confused to understand.

Sooner or later the oil price is going to explode...although I do concede that if we can keep receeding at 9% per annum we wont have a problem.


Well bermuda, oil at $56 at the moment. I assume if the IEA report is out - it has pretty much been ignored.

My knowledge is pretty limited at present.....building slowly....and I even know this is SCARY.

[bermuda]

Well bermuda, oil at $56 at the moment. I assume if the IEA report is out - it has pretty much been ignored.

My knowledge is pretty limited at present.....building slowly....and I even know this is SCARY.

Stay out until oil stabilizes. Demand in the USA now down 15%. We are heading into the mother of all recessions. It will take some pretty big cuts by Opec to pull crude up and they will be critcised heavily for it. China and India will help but it could be a while.

Let's hope we can use the time to invest in alternative research but I rather doubt that will occur in this economic climate.

[Tok3n]

Peak oil is just marketing spin by energy investment bankers which looks like the IEA has been sucked into it now.

Unless the a few of the super fields collapse in production with in the next few years, its not going to happened.

They still are pumping out fine and there's under producing Iraq to come on stream too.

[STRAT]

Stay out until oil stabilizes. Demand in the USA now down 15%. .The yanks may have stopped driving their cars to the shops. Does this mean they are walking? Hell no. they have stopped shopping too :D but Winter has arrived up there and it gets pretty damn cold. Consumption will rise and so will the price IMO

[bermuda]

Peak oil is just marketing spin by energy investment bankers which looks like the IEA has been sucked into it now.

Unless the a few of the super fields collapse in production with in the next few years, its not going to happened.

They still are pumping out fine and there's under producing Iraq to come on stream too.

Tok3n,
Iraq was pumping 3.7mbpd before...now pumping 2.2mbpd. Agree it has big potential ( possibly as high as 10mbpd*** ) but they have a Union of 60,000 oil workers that are steadfast in their desire to keep their own oil. There is an auction taking place at the moment for bid's by the Majors but any decision will be very politically fought.

***A lot of Iraq's oilfields were really stuffed by Saddam. Like seriously.

The age of easy oil is over and Ghawar is just so secret you have to wonder.

[Huang Chung]

One month to go, and nobody's pick is even close to the poo...currently $54.


KentBrockman $87.00
Tok3n $87.53
Skol $90.00
Taijon $93.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
brettdale $99.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
scorp 57 $112.00
The Big Ease $112.12
underDOG $112.50
Joe King $115.00
SEC $116.50
MrDevine $118.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
STRAT $122.00
Huang Chung $123.00
Serpie $123.95
JBmurc $126.00
CAM $127.50
Gofish $128.50
Shrewd Crude $132.50
Xerof $136.50
slam $138.00
Sman $138.44
absolut-advance $142.23
777 $142.50
clearasmud $145.00
boxing beaver $147.14
metal mickey $147.77
drillfix $148.00
Bilo $149.00
jonathan 76 $149.00
trackers $149.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $150.00
Dr Who $150.00
zacman $157.00
airedale $159.00
FrankEd $163.00
BigBob $165.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
zorba $168.00
tricha $170.00
pedro.nz $174.50
Da Puntzda $175.00
COLIN $178.00
whirly $179.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Laxmi $188.00
digger $191.00
Hoags $193.00
temptation $195.00
Financially dependant $199.00
JackSprat $200.00
LKSteve $250.00

[The Big Ease]

it really has been a dramatic collapse.

[STRAT]

it really has been a dramatic collapse.A little too dramatic I reckon. I wonder if its the same people who caused it shoot up to $140. My guess would be not. Theres a lot of speculation here at ST on the effect of market demand, peak oil etc but seems to me we should be speculating on whoes really doing the speculating.

[Tok3n]

Well we all lost the competition

At least we win as consumers :)

Looks like the world will become addicted to cheap oil again.

[STRAT]

Well we all lost the competition

At least we win as consumers :)

Looks like the world will become addicted to cheap oil again.Hi Tok3n
Reckon not. I suspect the turn up will be as dramatic as the turn down.

[STRAT]

A brave but good call I reckon Kent. Its all just a bubble anyway:eek:

I think it will go up some more over the next month or 3 but december? No clue really but my guess is it will retrace by then so my bet is $122.Not brave enough eh Kent?:D

but the best call none the less and against the tide of opinion in a big way at the time you posted this

"Here's a bold one: US$ 87"

[Tok3n]

Hey wasn't the competition rules, guess the oil price then multiply by 2?

light sweet crude oil below $50 now

[bermuda]

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif


TBE,
This is such a dynamic graph, I thought I would repeat it. It says it all. Thanks. Particularly the Opec cuts. Is history going to repeat itself. I think it has to.

[ELYOB]

Saudi recently increased production by 300k June08 ; and further 200k bblo July08 at the request of GWB?UN .....now OPEC going to reduce 1.5mmbblod , but Saudi has only to reduce 499k [if they dont cheat] so net Saudi are back on track and the rest of OPEC members have been screwed. But latest report that cuts implemented to date is only 800kbblod . OPEC members must be pissed off with the muscle of the saudi oil minister etc.,.

Now , we have USD$48 today ..... Saudi exports have a lead time of weeks before it effects the arrival ports ...... say GOM ....

Hey , also Somalia wants to join in the game with OPEC to help the world oil patch ?

Anyone heard of Pirate Oil .....has fast growth record with current reserves close to 2mmbbloe , equivalent to Saudi crude API .

[underDOG]

looking at the list

anyone who called under $100 is a winner imo under the circumstance at the time and there are 6 of them

OIL was going wild when this comp started

already $147 from memory

and I thought I was cheap at $112



its just a bloody good lesson in bubbles for all that picked $147+;)

[JackSprat]

Aarrr, 31/12/08 hasn't arrived yet. The competition doesn't end 'til then and I picked $200pb. It hurtled down. Doesn't mean it won't hurtle back up, that's what bubbles do only next time it won't be a bubble because those with the stuff will make sure they don't get caught short a second time. Infact I've invested on that assumption :)



looking at the list

anyone who called under $100 is a winner imo under the circumstance at the time and there are 6 of them

OIL was going wild when this comp started

already $147 from memory

and I thought I was cheap at $112



its just a bloody good lesson in bubbles for all that picked $147+;)

[Skol]

Competiton ends at close of trade, 19/12.

Kent's got it in the bag and chances are oil's going even lower than the current $47.

[shasta]

Competiton ends at close of trade, 19/12.

Kent's got it in the bag and chances are oil's going even lower than the current $47.

Greed got oil to $147 (or whatever the high was), & now fear will keep it under $60 for a while yet...

If only OPEC didnt get greedy & stablised the market in the $70 - 80 range, we all could have lived with that!

Skol, you may award the prize now :D

[Huang Chung]

Oil now trading well and truely less than half of Kent Brockman's 'bold' $87 bid.

If things stay the same, should Kent be declared the winner? I'm not sure anybody deserves to be called the winner of this comp.

[shasta]

Oil now trading well and truely less than half of Kent Brockman's 'bold' $87 bid.

If things stay the same, should Kent be declared the winner? I'm not sure anybody deserves to be called the winner of this comp.

I think consumers are the real winners :D

[STRAT]

Oil now trading well and truely less than half of Kent Brockman's 'bold' $87 bid.

If things stay the same, should Kent be declared the winner? I'm not sure anybody deserves to be called the winner of this comp.
Absolutely Kent should be declared the winner HC.
He may be miles off but he is the closest ( as stated on page 1 ) with what was a ballsy and contrary call at that time.

Regarding the price. This low price is as crazy as $140.00+. I will bet my Christmas Scotch the same people are manipulating the price now as were then. No idea when but its gonna be one hell of a bounce

[KentBrockman]

.....Kent should be declared the winner HC....

Where do I receive this prestigious award?

[Skol]

Where do I receive this prestigious award?

Read the first post Kent, the part about 'the joy of winning'.

[KentBrockman]

Read the first post Kent, the part about 'the joy of winning'.


I know.

It was a rhetorical question ;)

[bermuda]

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

TBE,
Thought I would publish your post again. It is so dynamic.

The last time OPEC took a cut of 4.2 million barrels the price of oil went up. There are other more serious factors this time though. Like the worst recession/depression we have ever encountered. Trillions of derivatives yet to be accounted for.

It is going to be very volatile but sooner or later oil goes up.

[Skol]

Two days to go in this competition and Kent will be the winner with UBS picking the POO might go to $20 or less.

[Huang Chung]

The POO comp has been run and won, and Kent Brockman is our winner.

Congrats Kent ;).

With the POO being so much lower than the lowest pick (Kent's) for so long, this comp has pretty well been a one horse race for quite a while.

Who would have guessed that, only 6 months ago, when $200 oil was all the talk, that we would be sitting at oil under $34 such a short time later....none of us, that's for sure.

I'm just wondering though...it seems we started this comp when oil was reaching its current peak (as the history books will tell us), and maybe, just maybe, we have ended this comp when oil has reached, or is close to, a cyclical low. It would be an incredible coincidence if it turned out that way. The following article is interesting, and maybe the rush to sell prior to Friday's expiry of the January contract pushed oil artificially low. After the last 6 months, all I can say is who can tell?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i1j0NiFF0gynccHzrlEWUzTo5h0Q


Just to recap on what the POO comp picks were.

KentBrockman $87.00
Tok3n $87.53
Skol $90.00
Taijon $93.00
Packersoldkidney $97.00
brettdale $99.00
georgeofthejungle $101.00
POSSUM THE CAT $102.35
shasta $105.00
redzone $108.00
The Plunger $109.00
macduffy $111.00
mark100 $112.00
scorp 57 $112.00
The Big Ease $112.12
underDOG $112.50
Joe King $115.00
SEC $116.50
MrDevine $118.00
Rif-Raf $119.00
STRAT $122.00
Huang Chung $123.00
Serpie $123.95
JBmurc $126.00
CAM $127.50
Gofish $128.50
Shrewd Crude $132.50
Xerof $136.50
slam $138.00
Sman $138.44
absolut-advance $142.23
777 $142.50
clearasmud $145.00
boxing beaver $147.14
metal mickey $147.77
drillfix $148.00
Bilo $149.00
jonathan 76 $149.00
trackers $149.00
bear $150.00
bermuda $150.00
Dr Who $150.00
zacman $157.00
airedale $159.00
FrankEd $163.00
BigBob $165.00
bob.not.a.builder $165.00
zorba $168.00
tricha $170.00
pedro.nz $174.50
Da Puntzda $175.00
COLIN $178.00
whirly $179.00
Grand Uber $183.00
Laxmi $188.00
digger $191.00
Hoags $193.00
temptation $195.00
Financially dependant $199.00
JackSprat $200.00
LKSteve $250.00

[temptation]

Congratulations Kent, and Congratulations Huang Chung!
Great competition and brilliantly timed to show us all how useless we are, and how useless the professional pundits are too!

[Financially dependant]

Congratulations Kent, and Congratulations Huang Chung!
Great competition and brilliantly timed to show us all how useless we are, and how useless the professional pundits are too!

Agree, thanks HC.. Another lesson learn't!

[KentBrockman]

The POO comp has been run and won, and Kent Brockman is our winner.

Congrats Kent ;).


Thank you! Oh! Thank you! I can hardly believe this! I feel so coked-up! And this statue - it's so shiny! Oh, thank you again! I just want everyone to secretly suspect that even in my wildest hallucinations, I never would have fantasized that this could ever validate my mediocrity. And to the other second-rate nominees, I want each of you to know how totally wonderful your crushing defeat makes me feel right now!

You know when they first told me I was a God on Earth, I just had to take a minute and think about how generous my experiences have been. I guess it all just makes me feel kinda special

You know, there are so many obsequious talentless success stories to thank! First off though, I want to thank the senile old bats of the Academy, who looked deep within their cold, black hearts before giving me this fantastic award! Also, I want to thank Gilgamesh, for being such a powerful force in my life. And to the People Under the Stairs, who taught me to take life by the horns. And finally, to all the Producers I slept with - I couldn't have done it without you!

Thank you New Zealand, and good night!


P.S.: Shamelessly lifted from the Oscar Acceptance Speech Generator at http://www.chickenhead.com/stuff/oscar/index.asp

[macduffy]

Yes, thanks HC and congratulations Kent!

Kent, I beg you to allow me to worship and study your feet!

Sorry, that should read " At your feet".

:D

[Tok3n]

Congrats!

who would have thought, the winner would be out by nearly $50 lol!

[Dr_Who]

LOL... congrats to all the winners.


We should have a new competition to pick the POO for 2009 and the bottom Poo price.

[Skol]

Congratulations Kent, and Congratulations Huang Chung!
Great competition and brilliantly timed to show us all how useless we are, and how useless the professional pundits are too!
Not quite correct you don't speak for all of us! The "we" part. You bet $195.

Congratulations Kent. You didn't exactly win an apartment on the Sunshine Coast, but you're the man all right.

[Dr_Who]

Once/if Poo reaches $20, one will have to seriously look at a possible long position.

[Paddie]

How can the price of oil (on Bloomberg) be down to $40 US a barrell.

Wasn't it trading at $36 US a barrell yesterday?

Paddie

[ELYOB]

POO : Remember it is monthly futures on NYMEX . This distorts the poo! There are things going on inthe background which are not yet factored into the futures pricing atm . The current price now is even false . It is an number based on trades taking place right now ......there is alot of slack in the NYMEX trading . The traders cant see yet where things are going . Data is short. Maybe about early Mar09 , some data will give them an idea.

[Dr_Who]

How can the price of oil (on Bloomberg) be down to $40 US a barrell.

Wasn't it trading at $36 US a barrell yesterday?

Paddie

Feb futures closed and rolled over to march futures which is trading around $40. What you are seeing is the marketing predicting that oil will be around $40 in march.

[STRAT]

Here you go Doc. You were lookin for this thread?

[Dr_Who]

Thanks Strat mate. I think there was another thread we all placed our bets on the Poo price end of this year. My memory is not as good as the good old days.

[Dr_Who]

Looks like oil could hit $70 this year.

US and China are taking advantage of the low price to replenish their reserves. Do you guys know how many cars the Chinese buy each month? :eek: