Anyone else trading on betfair.com?

[ratkin]

Since scaling down my stock trading i have been making a very good living trading prices at betfair.com.

Its a betting exchange where you can bet somethuing will win or lose.
Forget about the gambling side of it, where profits can be made and made big is in the trading.

For example horse races are fantastic, i start trading ten minutes before a race starts, the idea is to lay (bet to lose) for a lower price than you back it at.
Exactly the same as trading the stock exchange.

You dont need to know anything about horses, just need to know how to trade numbers


Check this site out to see how it works

http://www.racingtraders.com

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Since scaling down my stock trading i have been making a very good living trading prices at betfair.com.

Its a betting exchange where you can bet somethuing will win or lose.
Forget about the gambling side of it, where profits can be made and made big is in the trading.

For example horse races are fantastic, i start trading ten minutes before a race starts, the idea is to lay (bet to lose) for a lower price than you back it at.
Exactly the same as trading the stock exchange.

You dont need to know anything about horses, just need to know how to trade numbers


Check this site out to see how it works

http://www.racingtraders.com




I have dabbled in this and have found that on some weeks you can arbitrage a good profit with the NZ TAB for not too much outlay. Interesting seeing at work, and probably the way of the future as far as betting is concerned.
Also far better prices available than with the NZ tab. For instace you can get 4.2 on England in tonights rugby if thats the way you are inclined compared with the 3.00 the NZ tab is currently offering.

[ratkin]

The value from a punter point of view is incredibly better than that provided by the TAB model.

Arbitraging with the NZTAB has made me profits but not enough to make it worthwhile, i find once exchange rates and credit charges are taken into account the profit margin is smsll for the work involved.
I find it much easier to trade horse racing, much easier than trading stocks

In the UK betfair has taking the betting industry by storm, traditional bookmakers have no answer and are desperatly trying everything they can to have it banned.
However they are sounding like luddites, this is the way of the future and betfair will not be stopped. They won the queens award for innovation and many consider them to be the most succesful dot com in history.
They have now moved into australia and are having a ding dong battle with the aus TAB which is desperatly trying to have betfair banned despite betfair offering to pump in plenty -of cash to the aussie racing industry.

The TAB which is a virtual monopoly has the cheek to say betfair will cause an increase in gambling problems.
The tote creams off around 16% profit on each event, its no wonder there are gambling problems. With betfair the books are near 100% giving sensible punters every chance to make a profit.

[Capitalist]

www.tradesports.com in the US is worth a look too. You can bet on all manner of things and the return can be quite astounding.

[Oracle]

ratkin

I have looked at those sites & they look excellent. I will try them , for sure.

Your racing approach...Does that opportunity you use, occur often?

[eaglei]

Pardon my ignorance, but this is really intruiging me. What I cant understand is how this is any different to a stock exchange, what is the advantage of this type of trading? Basically it is a market of buyers and sellers meeting to trade, the price rises and falls on information which translates into demand and supply. why is this different?

[David Hardman]

Interesting Stuff Ratkin.

For demonstration purposes could you run through a real world bet/trade you have made?

[Oracle]

Ratkin

Yes, we need more advice.

I watched some race odds today & they were all over the place.

& last night I could have lay'd a bet on Tiger to lose the US open, & backed him at a higher price today! But then if he did not win, & I wagered the same amount, as I lay'd, I have made nothing ,have I?

[Oracle]

Ratkin

Have you gone into hibernation again!!?

[ratkin]

Here is an example of a trade i did today.

Looks complex but basically simple. I began by laying ARM AND A LEG at 1.99 for 60 pounds Which meant if it placed then i stood lo lose 59.62
The horse drifted in price so i waited until the price went to 2.52 and backed it to win for 47 pounds giving a profit of 71.38 if it placed.
So if the horse placed i was due to make about 12 pounds (back - lay) And if it didnt place then i made 13 pounds (60-47)

The trick is to back for less than you laid and then you win whatever happens provided of course the price drifts and dosent contract.
Use same strategy as trading stocks, if the price starts to come in quickly then exit fast for a small loss, if the price is drifting then keep the trade open to maximise profits.

Good thing with the horses is that there is a race every 15 minutes so trading is fast and furious. You notice in this race i actually traded two horses so there plenty of action. Some races you do of course lose but in the longterm win, i will post an average days results


Selection Requested Av. Odds Matched Stake £ Bet Type Profit/loss(£)
Arm And A Leg * 2.51 2.52 47.00 Back 71.38
Arm And A Leg * 2.02 1.99 60.00 Lay -59.62
Code Sign 1.90 1.90 50.17 Back 45.15
Code Sign * 1.79 1.78 53.00 Lay -41.45
Back Subtotal 116.53
Lay Subtotal -101.07
Market Total 15.46
Commission @ 4.8% 0.74
Net Market Total 14.72

[ratkin]

Here are my results from a few hours trading this morning and yesterday morning. Totals are pounds not NZ dollars.

You can see there were three races where i did not make a profit,
and 11 where there was a profit. Generally my profits each race are small but the risk fairly low. I am generally trading in 100 pound units and on average turnover around 200 pounds a race.
From around 20 hours a week i expect to average around 1000 dollars profit , however racing is now a 24 hour day operation on betfair with the UK USA OZ and hong kong plus other sports to trade.

Its like having a money tree at the end of the garden, although there is quite a lot to learn to be succesful and it is quite hard work as anyone who trades price will tell you, its tough staring at the screen for hours at a time and staying sharp at the same time



Betting summary
Categories
Net profit/loss(£)
Horse Racing 47.62
All Markets 47.62





All Markets Net profit/loss : £47.62



Market Open Date Net Profit/loss(£)
Horse Racing
UK / Newt 15th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-16 06.35 5.15
UK / Here 15th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-16 06.20 0.00
UK / Newt 15th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-16 06.05 11.80
UK / Here 15th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-16 05.50 14.72
UK / Newt 15th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-16 05.35 1.69
UK / Wind 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 07.30 1.90
UK / Warw 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 07.15 -0.09
UK / Wind 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 07.00 1.11
UK / Warw 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 06.45 14.10
UK / Wind 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 06.30 4.68
UK / Warw 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 06.15 -8.56
UK / Wind 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 06.00 0.00
UK / Warw 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 05.45 -5.46
UK / Wind 14th Jun : TO BE PLACED 2004-06-15 05.30 6.58

[ratkin]

You are probably wondering how i know a horse will drift in price.
Basically i dont !! All i go by is weight of money, i watch the market for a minute or two to see which horses are attracting the most money and which ones nobody wants to back , then about 5 min before the race i lay the one which is looking very weak in the market and then wait for it to drift and then hopefully back it to win at a higher price a minute or so before the race is due to start.

Sometimes you can be caught out and a horse you laid can start shortening in price, if this happens exit fast, dont wait and hope it will start drifting again as you might get caught out for a large amount, better to take a small loss and move on to the next race.

I know absolutly nothing about the horses and am purely influenced by price movement.
Anyone who can make money trading stocks should be able to make far more money trading betfair

[blackcap]

And to those that constantly take the prices on offer at the TAB, there are far better prices to be had here, with most major sports markets operating close to 100%.

Be careful though, funny as it may seem, the Tab will offer higher prices sometimes. Like the 1.4 on the AB's where on betfair it was offerd at 1.33 towards the end. However due to this if one fancied a bet on England the price was far superior to the TAB.

Its good in that you can bet in running too if you feel that way inclined. But not for the faint of hearted.

[Oracle]

Ratkin


Do you generally lay before you back, or vice versa?

From my observations so far, I can see there is good money to be made without horse kowledge. However knowledge re horse form would help, as I see it...by giving you some idea which direction prices may move. ...making it easier to cover yourself. Comment?

I note odds for tennis & golf considerably better than TAB.

If you become successful regularly, & you have no other job, tax in NZ could be an interesting issue. Especially if you combine the income with casino losses. Although IRD may say your Betfair strategy is not gambling. ????

[ratkin]

Hi,
Usually lay first then back after, this is because most horses tend to drift in price with just one or two shortening up.
Also if a horse plays up before the start or has some other mishap then the price can go out very fast, so if you back first then in my view you are taking more risk.

I dont believe knowledge of the horses helps, in fact it can be detrimental. Just as a stock trader ignores fundamentals, it is money which talks louder than past achievement.
If a horse is drifting on heavy money you can be fairly sure "THEY" know its not going to win.

Many say golf is a good sport to trade, it has the advantage of giving more time for decisions. One strategy is to lay the leader at the end of round one, then back him later at a much higher price once the field catches up.

One point i should stress is that when you start trading start small, its best to make your mistakes with small stakes. There is a fairly steep learning curve and it will take two or three months before you will be ready to make a reliable income of over 100 pounds a week.

I recently started someone to trade on horseraces. He knew absolutly nothing about horse racing and was very sceptical. Once i showed him my account history and he watched me in action he became very keen.
He deposited just 20 pounds and started laying 2 pound bets then backing them at higher prices.
That was about six weeks ago, he has now built up to 200 pounds and now has the confidence to lay each bet for 10 pounds.

The tax question is an interesting one. There is talk in the UK of taxing profits on an annual basis, this has occured due to an increasing number of people trading betfair full time.
Bookmakers are not happy because they need a license to lay horses and have to pay tax, while betfair traders do neither.
At the present time money derived from betfair is considered money made by gambling and as such is not subjected to any taxation.

However betfair take a commision of 5% of profit from each trade. Note they only take commision if you make a profit, so the more commision you pay then the more you are makingso its not a huge burden.

Common mistakes you are likely to make as a beginner include, a) trading illiquid markets where you cant get bets matched up
b) Typing errors such as entering wrong odds or amounts
c) Not matching bets in time before race start

The biggest danger of all is loss of internet connection when exposed to a loss. Having a backup ISP can help this but probably unnecessary until you risking large amounts.

These are very interesting times for betting exchanges and they are facing many legal challenges from a terrified bookmaking and TAB community which is desperate to protect its near monopoly and wants to maintain the status quo where they rake in massive profits at the expence of the poor punters.
Fact is though the exchange model is far superior and is the way of the future, and hopefully will not be stopped

[blackcap]

If only Fever pitch had got in on time or with a successful model.

It could have been a huge NZ success story.

[Oracle]

Ratkin

Thanks for your help. I have an account, and am ready to go, slowly!

[ratkin]

Oracle that the key go slowly.
Heres are sites that will help for australian racing

http://new.iasbet.com/?a=new

You dont need to register just click on AUST HORSE and select the race you want. It give the bookmakers current odds, look for one that is drifting with the bookmakers and has little support on betfair and lay it.

One other thing with australian racing is liquidity is fairly low especially with the country meetings, this will not effect you when learning as its easy to get a few pounds matched up.
I only play the big tracks such as caulfield randwick and flemington as there is more money around for those meets.

For the english racing you will want
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses

You can access live odds from this site too.
The evening racing (early morning here) +continues until august so plenty of time to make money during breakfast !!
The english racing is where the real action is with hundreds of thousands matched each race.

good luck and remember to start slowly and build up carefully.
After time you will learn to read the markets and gain a feel for it, you will soon be able to spot signs of drifters and steamers, and your profits will start to increase.
If you have the patience and skill then you will have your own money tree in your living room.

And remember dont gamble !!! Its ometimes tempting when the boredom sets it, if you feel the urge swithch off the comuter

Good luck

[Revhead]

This is all very interesting!! Will be keeping an eye on this thread and looking into it over the weekend.

Would be interested to see how oracle and others who have taken up challenge get on.

[Oracle]

Revhead

So far....I have looked at the horses, but only in daylight hours, & the Aussie races seem a bit thinly traded, & and following Ratkin's strategy at this stage, would be difficult.

I bet 5 pound on Vijay to win the golf, at the start. Unfortunately I should have lay'd at end of first round. Gambled on another round, where he slipped back. I have since lay'd, if he wins, I make 2.5 pound, if he does not, I'm all square.

I lay'd 5 pound on J Haas not to finish in the top 5, after his good first round. Got it at 6pound, so could offset now at a profit, but will continue another round at least.

Lay'd Venus (excuse me), not to win Wimbledon. Odds have moved in my favour, slightly. Also backed A. Mystena to win Wimbledon. I reckon that if she wins a round or 2, the odds will drop, & I will be able to lay at a lower level.

I continue to watch the horses, keeping an eye on the Aussie site (ex Ratkin), on a second computer, & the newspaper, as I believe the could assist in indicating direction of movement. Even though Ratkin says he relies on the money movements, he still has the other sites!


Will keep you posted, I am reasonably confident of success.

[ratkin]

I only use the australian site for the live bookmaker odds as they do have a bearing on likely price movement.
You should not have any trouble trading australian racing as you are only (should only) betting in small amounts.

In fact the australian racing is a good place to start, not because you will make big money but because it will provide you with valuable experience in trading. With a race every ten of fifreen minutes it will give you a good opportunity to make mistakes when they will not be costly

For more clues and hints and for anyone else interested i recommend you go to the betfair forums (chatback) and read the posts, especially in the general betting section. There are some knowledgable people there and you will pick up some useful information. There are a few idiots posting but you will sonn recognise them

one other tip when withdrawing money it pays to have a visa card rather than mastercard as with visa they allow you to take out more than you have put in.
Payment is prompt and the profit usually shows up on the card within two days

[ratkin]

Forgive me if im not too specific regarding mty trading methods. There are many different ways to trade profitably on betfair, the method i use will have to remain cloaked in secrecy although i have provided enough clues for you to be able to make profits.

To those who have sent me emails requesting specific advice and personal training i have thought about it and am afraid i will have to decline.
I really dont want people knowing the exact specifics of my trading as i dontwant to risk killing the golden goose.

The bet way is to learn a mathod for yourselves, its not that hard and its better to learn from your own mistakes as lessons are better learnet.
Ultimatly what makles a succesful trader is discipline , concentration and a feel for the orice movements, these factors cant really be taught but need to be learnt

[Oracle]

Ratkin

I have not emailed & would certainly not consider it. You have been very generous in your advice so far. Thanks.

I can see success, if one focus's on the investors percentage, rather than the gamblers extraordinary gain. Discipline must take precedence over greed.

[ratkin]

If you like tennis then wimbledon is a goldmine.
Go to a decent stat site and look for the top claycourt players and lay them at wombledon