CSG Exposure - BOW or VPE?

[Huang Chung]

If you were looking for CGS exposure, would you guys go for BOW or VPE?

BOW is only 2/3 the market cap of VPE and has a greater exposure to Don Juan (55% vs 45%). BOW have 10% of RPM, to QGCs 25%, so can't imagine them winning this war unless they pay up to make QGC walk away.

VPE have 45% of Don Juan, and 20% of PL171, which is supposed to be a top shelf lease.

Both have various oil interests, but I'm tempted to discount them.....useful cashflow to fund CSG development and not much else.

If the blue sky is in CSG...who do you think is better positioned?

(PS...I'm looking at heads only)

[drillfix]

Huang, why dont you just invest a reasonable percentage % in both ;)

This way, or either way, your exposure is there :rolleyes: :p

[bermuda]

If you were looking for CGS exposure, would you guys go for BOW or VPE?

BOW is only 2/3 the market cap of VPE and has a greater exposure to Don Juan (55% vs 45%). BOW have 10% of RPM, to QGCs 25%, so can't imagine them winning this war unless they pay up to make QGC walk away.

VPE have 45% of Don Juan, and 20% of PL171, which is supposed to be a top shelf lease.

Both have various oil interests, but I'm tempted to discount them.....useful cashflow to fund CSG development and not much else.

If the blue sky is in CSG...who do you think is better positioned?

(PS...I'm looking at heads only)


HC,
Both are brilliant medium to long term plays. Could be short term if Hudson comes in.

Got twice as many VPE as BOW.

LNG demand increasing all the time.

[Jay]

Bow has increased while VPE goes sideways - go figure

Disc - Hold a bit of both

[OutToLunch]

I bought into BOW at 80c in early July (already held VPE). Since then VPE has gone up by... nothing. BOW, on the other hand, is up over 90%. Either BOW has got well ahead of itself, or VPE is a coiled spring ready to go? BOW looks well supported even after the recent rise so here's hoping that it's the latter.

[COLIN]

I bought into BOW at 80c in early July (already held VPE). Since then VPE has gone up by... nothing. BOW, on the other hand, is up over 90%. Either BOW has got well ahead of itself, or VPE is a coiled spring ready to go? BOW looks well supported even after the recent rise so here's hoping that it's the latter.
Sold out of BOW in March, at 66c, and wagered it all on VPE. Looks like I made the wrong choice.

[Jay]

I bought into BOW at 80c in early July (already held VPE). Since then VPE has gone up by... nothing. BOW, on the other hand, is up over 90%. Either BOW has got well ahead of itself, or VPE is a coiled spring ready to go? BOW looks well supported even after the recent rise so here's hoping that it's the latter.


Or at least hold at the last resistance of 1.40.

Yes let's hope VPE is a bit slow in catching up

[STRAT]

or VPE is a coiled spring ready to go? .I think Phaedrus said the longer a stock is stuck in a trading range the more likely it is to break out with force but in either direction:eek:. Something like that.
Heard a strange noise coming from the back room the other night and it woke me up. I got out of bed to investigate where this hum may be coming from. My computer was off. Everything was off. It was coming from the filing cabnet. I opened it up and there was my VPE share holding statement vibrating :eek:

It bloody well better go off like a released coil spring or it will be no new boat for me.:D

[Phaedrus]

Sold out of BOW in March, at 66cWhy did you sell at that point, Colin? BOW was in a very strong uptrend at the time, and you are supposed to let your winners run, remember! A little bit of basic TA would have helped you monitor the uptrend more closely. The four Sell signals shown here fired almost simultaneously, giving an exit at about $1.30. Sometimes it is a bit difficult to know exactly what a stock is doing, but in this case the shareprice and the OBV were clearly either going Up, Down or Sideways and so it was (and still is) quite clear as to whether you should be in or out of this stock.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/BOW94.gif


Sold out of BOW in March (and) wagered it all on VPE. Looks like I made the wrong choice.Well, you could have done a lot worse, Colin. At least you moved your funds into a stock that was going up, albeit not as fast as BOW. Your mistake was prematurely selling out of BOW rather than buying VPE. I gather you are still holding VPE, though. Why? This stock gave a slew of Sell signals way back in April and has gone nowhere since. Basic trend-following TA could help you time your entries and exits a little better. This, too, is a very clear picture, with the shareprice and OBV nicely in tandem, either Rising or flat. Why waste time and money holding stocks that are going nowhere?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/VPE94.gif

[COLIN]

Phaedrus: I realise I haven't responded to your tutorial (above) - probably I was too shame-faced!
Yes, I have sinned in clutching my VPEO's to my bosom for too long, to the extent of ignoring my own hard-learned lessons. Others made me do it (that excuse is is old as the hills, isn't it!) but these others kept tempting me to hold, saying alluring words like: "Why quit now when riches are just around the corner!" or "CSG is the greatest development since sliced bread" or whatever.
But then along came that big man from Woodside who says that CSG is not going to save mankind, and I have listened to him. So, armed with both TA reasons and FA reasons for breaking off my affair with VPE I have sold half my options today - still keeping the other half as my "bit on the side" (see, I am still a weak, naughty being!). !!!!!!!

But........cheers - and thanks again for your always-appreciated charts, observations and advice.

[Jay]

Still holding my VPE (not that many - well no where near enough to buy a new boat if I wanted one, which I don't) - still going sideways

Plus still have BOW as well

[gazprom1]

Jay,

BOW has been sensational (I sold out in the $1.30's) and so has VPE (although not of late). I am positive about VPE (great drilling progam in place) but would like some more information flow from the company. I hold options as well and wondering whether they will begin to impact on the share price.

Gazprom

[Jay]

Jay,

BOW has been sensational (I sold out in the $1.30's) and so has VPE (although not of late). I am positive about VPE (great drilling progam in place) but would like some more information flow from the company. I hold options as well and wondering whether they will begin to impact on the share price.

Gazprom

I got into BOW for around 1.07 (after havong my exit previous exit too close and missed the run from 40c odd to $1.00) and wondering where I should exit, suport/resitance at 1.40 but that is a bit of a drop from the recent high.
Phaedrus's chart had a MA of 12 days I think it was which is also sitting around 140ish.

[clearasmud]

Hi Phaedrus what is your current advice for Bow?
Is it a sell?

[Jay]

I sold minie on the last pull back a day or two a go for a 30% profit over the last few months.
Dropped below the previous support/resistance of 1.40 by my basic TA calculations.

[COLIN]

Jay,

BOW has been sensational (I sold out in the $1.30's) and so has VPE (although not of late). I am positive about VPE (great drilling progam in place) but would like some more information flow from the company. I hold options as well and wondering whether they will begin to impact on the share price.

Gazprom

For the record, I sold the remaining half of my VPEO yesterday. The expiry date is looming ever closer and neither the heads nor the options have shown any signs of pulling out of their downwards glide path in recent weeks. As Phaedrus said in his post of 4 Sept: "Why waste time and money holding stocks that are going nowhere?" True, too true.
And I get the distinct feeling that CSG is not turning out to be the El Dorado that many were prophesying it would be - I believe that the man from Woodside knew what he was talking about.

[gazprom1]

Hi Colin,

Congratulations - the most important thing IMO is to make a decision rather than procrastinate. Good luck with your new investment.

I sold a few last week at 16 but still holding some. VPE are not in need of cash because of the oil revenues, still have further wells to drill and CSG is a big play for them. I think that they will be fantastic in the medium term provided global markets behave themselves.

Gazprom

[bermuda]

For the record, I sold the remaining half of my VPEO yesterday. The expiry date is looming ever closer and neither the heads nor the options have shown any signs of pulling out of their downwards glide path in recent weeks. As Phaedrus said in his post of 4 Sept: "Why waste time and money holding stocks that are going nowhere?" True, too true.
And I get the distinct feeling that CSG is not turning out to be the El Dorado that many were prophesying it would be - I believe that the man from Woodside knew what he was talking about.

Colin,
That guy is still miffed about missing out on the contract to supply the new Singapore LNG hub. He lost out to British Gas who are still looking for further CSG contracts in Queensland.

CSG Fuel of the Future.
Global LNG demand to double by 2020.

[Phaedrus]

Is BOW a Sell? Yes. All of the indicators I use on BOW have triggered Sell signals.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/BOW101.gif

One cannot help but be struck by the very high degree of accuracy demonstrated by these indicators, especially the divergences. Unfortunately I have been unable to access any authoritative statistics on Divergences. Some people say that these signals are very rare, while others claim that they are so common that only 1 in 3 have any significance. My experience of divergences is reflected in the very accurate and timely signals that you see here. The trendline break, OBV and Moving average signals were never far behind, though. This is TA working at its absolute best. If a chart like this does not convince you of the worth of TA, nothing will.

Bringing this thread back to the original question BOW or VPE?, the answer was BOW - but now it is..... neither!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/VPE101.gif

[clearasmud]

Thank you so much Phaedrus.