Next Government Poll

[minimoke]

So some don't have faith in the polls but how good are we at picking the next government. I’ll put my hand up for a Labour / Greens/ Jim Anderton Coalition with Maori Party and United Future on Supply and Confidence. It’s not what I want but it’s what I think we’ll end up with.
I'm not convinced National has sufficient policy to drag votes in and Labour will do enough to discredit National to drop their overall tally. What policy National will produce won’t be sufficiently different to attract voters when Labour starts dishing the dirt.
I don’t think we’ll see NZ First back – but am loath to write Winston Peters off totally as he is an old war horse who has a track record of pulling something out of the bag.
Maori Party are probably still a bit young to get a front bench seat but are clever enough to know they need more experience and will support a government to get that experience.

It won’t be a quick result.

The Poll is limited to 10 choices but we have more so you might want to vote for one of the other options below.

1. National / Act Coalition
2. Labour / Greens / Jim Anderton Progressive Coalition
3. National / Act Coalition with United Future on Supply and Confidence/coalition
4. National / Act Coalition with Maori Party on Supply and Confidence/coalition
5. National / Act Coalition with United Future / Maori Party on Supply and Confidence/coalition
6. National / Act Coalition with NZ First on Supply and Confidence/coalition
7. National / Act with United Future / Maori Party and NZ First on Supply and Confidence/coalition.
8. Labour /Greens / Jim Anderton Progressive Coalition with United Future on Supply and Confidence/coalition
9. Labour / Greens / Jim Anderton Progressive Coalition with United Future / Maori Party on Supply and Confidence/coalition
10. Labour / Greens / Jim Anderton Progressive Coalition with Maori Party on Supply and Confidence/coalition
11. Labour / Greens / Jim Anderton Progressive Coalition with NZ First on Supply and Confidence/coalition
12. Labour / Greens / Jim Anderton Progressive with United Future / Maori Party and NZ First on Supply and Confidence/coalition
13. National Alone
14. Labour Alone
15. Labour / Greens Coalition

[J R Ewing]

You seem very sure that if National go into coalition with anyone it will be with Act. I think you may be correct, but I am far from certain. Months ago John Key ruled out a seat at the cabinet table for Roger Douglas - at the same time as he was saying it was conceivable that Winston could retain his role as foreign minister. Is it possible that National might consider Act too right wing for its centrist agenda? They might prefer the Maori Party, United or the Greens as a more politically correct coalition partner and perhaps rely on Act for confidence and supply.

[minimoke]

National and the Greens will never go into coalition – the Greens are essentially socialists so at the other end of the spectrum for National. I think ACT will modify its view to get on the front benches. And National will move a bit more “right” - it has to really as there isn’t a heck of a lot, at a policy level between National and Labour to differentiate them. The Maori Party may well end up as a coalition partner – but I don’t think they have the experience for this role – whereas in supply and confidence they could pick up a bauble or two.

[hiawatha]

The above options seem to assume that NZ First won't get back in. This is not a foregone conclusion despite the flack that Peters is copping at the moment. If NZ First are back in with 6 or 7 seats it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition without them.
hiawatha

[minimoke]

The above options seem to assume that NZ First won't get back in. This is not a foregone conclusion despite the flack that Peters is copping at the moment. If NZ First are back in with 6 or 7 seats it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition without them.
hiawatha
You could take options 7 or 12 .Without Winston, I can’t see how NZ first will get through. I don’t think they’ll take Tauranga and I’m not sure they’ll get enough party votes to get the 5%. But agreed – if they can manage it then Winston will need to be involved though National or Labour may be able to get enough numbers if the other party is prepared to exclude NZ First from their sums. I think there will be more deals done for the Maori Party than NZ First and it is the Maori Party who will hold the balance of power this time around.

[J R Ewing]

The above options seem to assume that NZ First won't get back in. This is not a foregone conclusion despite the flack that Peters is copping at the moment. If NZ First are back in with 6 or 7 seats it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition without them.
hiawatha

And what more damning indictment of MMP could you have than that?

[shasta]

National and the Greens will never go into coalition – the Greens are essentially socialists so at the other end of the spectrum for National. I think ACT will modify its view to get on the front benches. And National will move a bit more “right” - it has to really as there isn’t a heck of a lot, at a policy level between National and Labour to differentiate them. The Maori Party may well end up as a coalition partner – but I don’t think they have the experience for this role – whereas in supply and confidence they could pick up a bauble or two.

As an ACT supporter, & someone who wants to see "real change" in Govt to reflect a more centre/right coalition, the only option is National & ACT.

Peter Dunne & the Maori party are possibilities for supply & confidence.

Hiawatha - Despite all the allegations over Winston Peters, do you really want NZ First back in?

They are a dead duck & this won't blow over - consider them gone!

Labour have the Greens & Jim Anderton, & will likely need NZ First, hence Helen Clark turning a blind eye to blatant fraud by a pack of smart ass lawyers.

I voted for National & ACT, the only TRUE alternative to the incumbent Govt

[hiawatha]

And what more damning indictment of MMP could you have than that?

I know. Pretty awful, ain't it. But, like they say about democracy, all the other systems are so much worse.
hiawatha

[POSSUM THE CAT]

What about a National Labour Coalition Or
Labour National coalition remember John Key's fauxpass about when he was leader of the Labour Party

[minimoke]

I voted for National & ACT, the only TRUE alternative to the incumbent Govt
That’s who you would like to win – is that the same as who think will win.

[shasta]

That’s who you would like to win – is that the same as who think will win.

I'd like to see that, whether it happens i'm not so sure...

I do expect ACT to be back in with bigger numbers regardless

[hiawatha]

Hiawatha - Despite all the allegations over Winston Peters, do you really want NZ First back in?

Actually, though I've never voted for NZ First, and probably never would, I am genuinely sorry to see them go. And not just because they might have supported Helen in forming the next government, but because I have always thought they were a party with something to offer.
It is interesting, though, that Tariana Turia was the only party leader to offer Winston moral support throughout his recent tribulations.
hiawatha

[J R Ewing]

I think it is very possible that if National can't govern alone they will prefer to go into coalition with a centrist or left wing party rather than Act. I think that would appeal to them as they would see it as an opportunity to stake a bigger claim on the centre, while at the same time making it difficult for Labour to find a meaningful point of difference in the subsequent elections.

[minimoke]

I think it is very possible that if National can't govern alone they will prefer to go into coalition with a centrist or left wing party rather than Act. I think that would appeal to them as they would see it as an opportunity to stake a bigger claim on the centre, while at the same time making it difficult for Labour to find a meaningful point of difference in the subsequent elections.

Umm – who would that be – the socialist Greens. I can’t see that happening. That only leaves Labour. And after been thrown the lifeline by Labour will NZ First go to National – I don’t think so. The Maori Party haven’t enough experience to be in a coalition – but their time will come.

NZ First now have the risk of imploding. Ron Mark, Peter Brown and Dail Jones will not appreciate what Winston has done so could we be looking at a coup? A NZ First with WP will go to Labour, A NZ First with a New Leader may go to National.

National won’t get enough support to govern alone! There is the risk that they will also implode after having peaked too early and not having enough substance to fend of the dirt that Labour is about to start dishing.

[shasta]

I think it is very possible that if National can't govern alone they will prefer to go into coalition with a centrist or left wing party rather than Act. I think that would appeal to them as they would see it as an opportunity to stake a bigger claim on the centre, while at the same time making it difficult for Labour to find a meaningful point of difference in the subsequent elections.

Interestingly then, currently 70% of the voters on this thread's poll want ACT apart of a National coalition in some way!

[J R Ewing]

Umm – who would that be – the socialist Greens. I can’t see that happening. That only leaves Labour. And after been thrown the lifeline by Labour will NZ First go to National – I don’t think so. The Maori Party haven’t enough experience to be in a coalition – but their time will come.


United would be the easy choice, Nats have already said the Maori party is a possibility. The greens are further to the left than Jim Anderton, but a deal might be cobbled together on supply at the price of the greens getting some of their "green" environmental policies implemented as opposed to some of their "socialist" general policies.

I agree ACT are the favorite, but National led coalitions other than Act are certainly possible.

[minimoke]

United would be the easy choice, Nats have already said the Maori party is a possibility. The greens are further to the left than Jim Anderton, but a deal might be cobbled together on supply at the price of the greens getting some of their "green" environmental policies implemented as opposed to some of their "socialist" general policies.

I agree ACT are the favorite, but National led coalitions other than Act are certainly possible.
One , perhaps two United seats won't be enough. The Maori Party in coalition with anyone is madness - they just aren't ready. Supply and confidence is a good stepping stone for them. Green environment polices and socialist polices are pretty much the same thing. Just one disguised as the other. These parties will have choices on who to go with. Except for Act, and perhaps Maori, most will lean toward Labour. Better the Devil you know!

[Major von Tempsky]

Anyone going into coalition with the Greens has got scrambled eggs for brains.

The Maoris are quite sane and rational in comparison.

If you understand that NZ First are just totally corrupt and morally bankrupt and assume that in all cases - and are likely to stab you in back or produce a debilitating crisis which tars you by association....who would ever do a deal with NZ First again?

[777]

Interestingly then, currently 70% of the voters on this thread's poll want ACT apart of a National coalition in some way!

Simply because all options have National with Act.

[fungus pudding]

Interestingly then, currently 70% of the voters on this thread's poll want ACT apart of a National coalition in some way!



I would like to see them a part of the govt. rather than apart. Unfortunately Labour and the Kermit party will be the next govt.

[shasta]

I would like to see them a part of the govt. rather than apart. Unfortunately Labour and the Kermit party will be the next govt.

Really, you think it's that cut & dry?

Ignore NZ First (like 97% of the country already does)...

What are the most likely viable options...

Labour & the Greens (lets not forget Jim) = not enough numbers?

National & ACT (+ Peter Dunne if he wins Johnsonville?) = maybe enough?

Should NZ First without WP, arise like the Phoenix from the Ashes then they could go either way...:confused:

The Maori Party are more likely to lean towards National than Labour, & could conceivably be the "king or queen" maker.

Australia got the change they were after, & we tend to follow suit...

I just hope ACT & Peter Dunne are enough support with National.

Should (& i shudder to think) Labour somehow win, i'd rather they didn't cobble together a multi party coalition...

[GTM 3442]

I would like to see them a part of the govt. rather than apart. Unfortunately Labour and the Kermit party will be the next govt.


My dear old Funguspudding - they are all frogs. And none of them turn into princes when you kiss them !

[minimoke]

I’d have to give HC top marks for today’s announcement. It was well timed. She’ll be able to focus on election news next week and distract from the Peters affair. Parliament is now effectively shut down so no more troublesome attacks from National. She had 15 minutes worth of campaign coverage for free at lunch time – everyone else is only going to get a couple of minutes today. And she’s outlined her tactics. She’s going to create the perception that Labour are trust worthy which will become the reality for the sheeple. Oil prices are down, mortgage rates will drop, the tax drops will kick in, the air will be warmer – its all lining up for my prediction to come through.

[minimoke]

After last night Leaders debate I’ll give Helen Clark a couple of percentage points more in the final poll. She appeared quite civilised and got rid of the red jacket. She did enough to pull in a few swinging voters. John Key did well – but enough to grab a few points from swingers – I don’t think so. If we have Act and Jim Anderton cancelling each other’s seats out the race is between National and Labour + Greens. Greens are picking up a little, Labour is picking up a lot – between the two they may just make it. I’m still comfortable with my initial prediction.

[craic]

News poll this morning had JK winning the debate by 2:1. I didn't see it but most commentators were of the opinion that JK fared better than expected. I wait for the final poll but one prediction i make is that Rodney Hide will have a much stronger party vote than most believe. He will be elected and may hjave a very significant role.

[mondograss]

News poll was an 0900\txt in poll so not even remotely scientific. I'd call the debate a draw. Helen was better on the technical language but struggled to connect at a human level, Key was better at the emotive language but said little of real substance. Both talked over each other as much as the other. Both avoided questions when it suited them.

[Placebo]

I haven't voted in this poll because I think it is too soon to predict how the cards will fall. I don't think there is significant enough difference between the two major parties to make a major difference to me, so fairly neutral overall.

I make these observations:

1: There are more options on the left. Labour and Progressive Jim are in coalition, they have 3 supply-and-confidence partners (U-F, Green and NZ First). All are likely to be still in the frame post-election. Therefore, this gives Labour a numerical advantage in stitching together a loose coalition or minority govt (as we currently have)

2: National has limited its options: Mainly by ruling out a deal with NZ First, or even working with them. NZ First are such an odd bunch they can swing left or right - even they aren't sure quite what they stand for. Nats may strike a supply and confidence deal with the Maoris - Maori Party will see it as a chance to block the Nats plans to drop the Maori seats. ACT will be back and bigger (Douglas factor), they are natural partners for National. Whether they will go into coalition, I think not.

3: Parties will be reluctant to go into coalitions: This was Winston's fundamental mistake in 1996, and ultimately led to the implosion of NZ First. In 1997-98 they lost about 8 MPs including the "tight five" and people like Deborah Morris. Mainly because the terms of their coalition agreement were too constricting. This is a mistake political parties (Anderton aside) have been unwilling to repeat. Supply and confidence agreements give a lot more scope for parties to take a hand in government while still remain true to their central philosophies (if they have one ;))

4: Hard-left and hard-right votes are fairly stable, the middle ground is crowded: Green generally gets 6-7% of the vote, ACT 4-5%, this is fairly solid. With Nats and Labour looking fairly similar, there may be some `protest vote' spillover into these parties. Greens are running the most clever poster campaign - will resonate with many. ACT may pick up some extras by their tax position and the re-emergence of Roger Douglas. But will Rodney hold Epsom?

5: Maori Party will be back and bigger: They will likely win all Maori seats, giving them 7 MPs. This will make them major players in any govt talks.

6: The biggest party on the day may not form the government: The rules are that the party with the most seats gets first opp to form a govt. If they can't, then second cab off the rank can do so.

7: No-one will score more than 50% of the vote: So current polls can be ignored.

[mondograss]

A fairly accurate assessment with a couple of exceptions:
1) The Maori party (and Turia in particular) have been trying to thaw relations with Labour lately. That's likely to bear fruit and shows that they are conscious of their supporters wishes that they back Labour.

2) Nanaia Mahuta will almost certainly win her Maori seat for Labour, she has immense local support and has done a lot to earn it. Parekura is also probable, Derek Fox is high profile but not that well liked.

[minimoke]

I haven't voted in this poll because I think it is too soon to predict how the cards will fall.
C’mon – give it a shot. What will the govt look like? This isn’t a poll on what you want but on the outcome. People keeping saying its the poll on the 8th of Nov that’s is the most important. They are in for a surprise (but they should know by now) when they find out that its the major parties leaders’ who is best at stitching together an agreement that will win the day – and we won’t know that till after the 8th! A weeks a long time in politics – but I still reckon my crystal ball is good – how’s yours?

[Placebo]

Minimoke the one option not in your list is the status quo, which is Labour/Jimbo minority coalition with supply/confidence from NZF/U-F/Greens. This has to be one of the options.

It really is too tough to call. I don't believe the polls but if I did, they tell me it is National or National with ACT on supply/confidence. But we all know this gap will close. The question is by how much.

On the other side we have (surprise surprise) status quo. There is every chance this could also form the next govt.

One other factor: Being a party leader these days isn't just about arranging your team and persuading the electorate you are worth their vote. It is also about being able to bring together people of sometime disparate political views to work together on issues of common interest.

Clark has mastered this skill, so did Jim Bolger (at least initially). Jenny Shipley didn't have this skill, and her government quickly fell apart. Whether Key has the ability to work co-operatively with other political parties is an unknown factor. He will certainly need the skill if he is elected.

[minimoke]

Placebo. At the time I drew up the poll things were looking pretty bad for Winston and I was limited to 10 options on the list. With 7 – 8 potential winning parties the number of permutations was too many for the poll.

I haven’t written Winston off now – but I don’t think he can do enough to win Tauranga or 5%. Possibly close but not enough. And this shows Helen Clarks skill at coalitions. If Peters does get past the threshold she has done enough to secure his support in parliament – National clearly haven’t. If he doesn’t get past the threshold Labour know his vote will get split between National and Labour ( the closer labour can close the gap the more they’ll get) and then with the Greens. Either way Labour is securing the NZ First vote – a cunning move!

[shasta]

Placebo. At the time I drew up the poll things were looking pretty bad for Winston and I was limited to 10 options on the list. With 7 – 8 potential winning parties the number of permutations was too many for the poll.

I haven’t written Winston off now – but I don’t think he can do enough to win Tauranga or 5%. Possibly close but not enough. And this shows Helen Clarks skill at coalitions. If Peters does get past the threshold she has done enough to secure his support in parliament – National clearly haven’t. If he doesn’t get past the threshold Labour know his vote will get split between National and Labour ( the closer labour can close the gap the more they’ll get) and then with the Greens. Either way Labour is securing the NZ First vote – a cunning move!

Greens and ACT surge in polls, Nats hold strong

After three dramatic mixed-message polls in a week, National has seen its share of the vote erode, with the Green Party and ACT building strength.
The Morgan and TV3 polls on Friday showed a swing toward Labour, though the TV1 poll at the weekend had National holding strong.

As the average of the last six published polls, the NZPA rolling poll smooths fluctuations.

It showed National support at 48.2 per cent, one percentage point down in two weeks.

Labour was also down slightly, to 35.7 per cent with allies the Green Party strong at 6.8 per cent.

National's allies ACT climbed from 1.7 per cent support, to 2.0 per cent.
Translated into seats, it showed the Green Party post-election could have as many as eight MPs - two more than now - and ACT three, one more than in this Parliament.

If the NZPA poll was reflected in the November 8 election result, National with 60 seats and ACT with three would hold the balance of power in a 124-seat House.

Labour would take 45 seats, the Greens eight and the Progressive Party one - nine seats fewer than the National-ACT bloc. On October 1 the gap was 11 seats.

NZ First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 per cent of votes cast to return to Parliament.

It is at 2.9 per cent on the party vote, and Tauranga electorate polling has leader Winston Peters behind National candidate Simon Bridges.

The NZPA rolling poll allocated the Maori Party six seats - based on current polls in the Maori electorate seats - and United Future just one.

NZPA rolling poll (with seats in brackets)*
October 15

Labour 35.7 (45)
National 48.2 (60)
NZ First 2.9 (0)
ACT 2.0 (3)
Greens 6.8 (8)
United Future 0.4 (1)
Maori Party 2.3 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)

Lets reshuffle the above to show the options (based on seats)

Left Wing Govt:

Labour (45) Greens (8) Jim Anderton (1) = 54

Right Wing Govt:

National (60) ACT (3) = 63

Centre/Swing:

Maori Party (6), Peter Dunne (1) (I believe these 2 could go either way)

The left wing block even with Peter Dunne & the Maori Party only gets to 61

This is where is gets interesting though?

Should National drop off, they will need the Maori Party, or...

Should National drop off, Labour will need the Maori Party!

Will that "Last cab off the rank" comment come back to haunt Labour?

Should National "court" the Maori Party & leave out ACT to guarantee the numbers?

What do National supporters prefer, Maori Party or ACT?

ACT have come out recently saying they can work with the Maori Party...

I doubt if anyone really wants a Labour-Jim-Greens-Maori Govt?

[minimoke]

I doubt if anyone really wants a Labour-Jim-Greens-Maori Govt?
Shasta
On your numbers my prediction is looking good. You have National Act on 63 and the others on 61 seats. It will only take a 1% slippage from National to split to say the Greens and United and I’m on the money. I bet National back-roomers are courting the Maori party and Peter Dunn like a slut needing her next P fix.

[Placebo]

National's allies ACT climbed from 1.7 per cent support, to 2.0 per cent.

This really shows very little. The headline suggests there's been some quantum shift... but there hasn't been. Business as usual. National still able to govern on its own. ACT still polling below the margin of error. The number of seats assumes they hold Epsom.

How much should you take from this type of story? Very little!

[shasta]

This really shows very little. The headline suggests there's been some quantum shift... but there hasn't been. Business as usual. National still able to govern on its own. ACT still polling below the margin of error. The number of seats assumes they hold Epsom.

How much should you take from this type of story? Very little!

Must say as an ACT supporter, that headline made me think they were polling 5%+

Other polls have shown ACT over 3%, & the Greens around 8%...

The NZPA poll smooths the others & provides an average, so i guess its fair?

Suppose there's only one poll that counts!

[Placebo]

Must say as an ACT supporter, that headline made me think they were polling 5%+

Other polls have shown ACT over 3%, & the Greens around 8%...

The NZPA poll smooths the others & provides an average, so i guess its fair?

Suppose there's only one poll that counts!

It's not a poll - it's a meta-analysis, and yeah that headline is a shocker. ACT "surges" in the polls? They have gone to (according to NZPA) 2.0% from 1.7%. A "surge" of 0.3 percentage points. Probably equates to about 20 votes.

That's not a surge, it's a veritable tsunami of support for ACT.

Prepare the way! Rodney will be the next PM :D

[shasta]

It's not a poll - it's a meta-analysis, and yeah that headline is a shocker. ACT "surges" in the polls? They have gone to (according to NZPA) 2.0% from 1.7%. A "surge" of 0.3 percentage points. Probably equates to about 20 votes.

That's not a surge, it's a veritable tsunami of support for ACT.

Prepare the way! Rodney will be the next PM :D

Results from the latest round of "Pulse of the Nation" the online poll

In order of highest to lowest

National - 51.8% (Down 2.8%)
Labour - 24.6% (Up 2.7%)
Greens - 6.0% (Up 0.6%)
ACT - 4.8% (Up 0.5%)
NZ First - 4.0% (Down 0.8%)
Maori Party - 3.7% (Down 0.6%)
Other - 3.2% (Up 0.3%)
United Future 1.2% (Up 0.1%)
Progressives 0.7% (Down 0.1%)

Obviously it's not a scientific poll, but does have a large population sample

In reality Labour are probably 10 points higher & National 10 points lower?

[Major von Tempsky]

And the next poll bruited by TV1 today gives 51% to National and 33% to Labour but Helengrad is up 5% in the leaders poll but well behind John Key.

Helen must be having some private dark moments.....heh heh heh

But publicly she has to crack hearty as if the wheels haven't fallen off and she didn't lose the Leaders Debate.

Perhaps post-election she could do a Tony Blair and become a 1 person intermediary to sort out Fiji and Myanmar.
With the same lack of progress.....

[Placebo]

There is a lag in these polls of about a week or so, and the campaign only really got into gear last week, so the impact of things like the first leaders debate may not be showing through yet.

[shasta]

There is a lag in these polls of about a week or so, and the campaign only really got into gear last week, so the impact of things like the first leaders debate may not be showing through yet.

Spoken like a true Labour party supporter.

Any poll that doesn't "fit" there agenda, then smear it & attack it & claim some National bias...

Yawn... it's really getting a bit pathetic...

...and they want people to TRUST them?

BTW, Key maulled Clark, so if your waiting for a poll to show those results i'm afraid it's more bad news...

Clark shouting down Key will be replayed over & over during this campaign, her very own tantrum on National TV...

Poor Peter Davis, bet he copes it when the polls are bad :D

[mondograss]

Shasta, I think you owe Placebo an apology. From what I can tell he's not a Labour supporter and he is stating a simple fact. The poll would have been taken at least in part before the debate (they take a full week to complete, then a couple of days for analysis), and then it takes people a while to talk to family, mates etc before firming their opinions. So Placebo is right, any event takes at least a week (closer to two actually) before registering in a poll.

Try to be more careful before lashing out eh?

[shasta]

Shasta, I think you owe Placebo an apology. From what I can tell he's not a Labour supporter and he is stating a simple fact. The poll would have been taken at least in part before the debate (they take a full week to complete, then a couple of days for analysis), and then it takes people a while to talk to family, mates etc before firming their opinions. So Placebo is right, any event takes at least a week (closer to two actually) before registering in a poll.

Try to be more careful before lashing out eh?

I wasn't trying to attack Placebo, so i apologise if any offense was taken.

It does seem to be a Labour trait however to attack any polls they don't agree with (it's a known fact Helen only trusts 2 or 3 polls) & of course they favour Labour, surprise surprise.

The general consensus in all the polls i've seen was that John Key won the debate, & therefore i'd expect to see the gap widen.

[Placebo]

I wasn't trying to attack Placebo, so i apologise if any offense was taken.

It does seem to be a Labour trait however to attack any polls they don't agree with (it's a known fact Helen only trusts 2 or 3 polls) & of course they favour Labour, surprise surprise.

The general consensus in all the polls i've seen was that John Key won the debate, & therefore i'd expect to see the gap widen.

Hmmm, things getting a bit keen. I wasn't endorsing any poll, just commenting as Mondograss says on the facts... Had no idea the facts were so inflammatory...

As far as polls go, there's only one that matters. The others are only to feed political party morale and fill newspaper column inches. It's no surprise these are usually reported on Sundays, when there is little other news to report.

Apology accepted, Shasta :D. If I make it to the Wellington event, you can buy me a beer ;)

[shasta]

Hmmm, things getting a bit keen. I wasn't endorsing any poll, just commenting as Mondograss says on the facts... Had no idea the facts were so inflammatory...

As far as polls go, there's only one that matters. The others are only to feed political party morale and fill newspaper column inches. It's no surprise these are usually reported on Sundays, when there is little other news to report.

Apology accepted, Shasta :D. If I make it to the Wellington event, you can buy me a beer ;)

If you make it along Placebo, consider it done ;)

Results from the latest "Pulse of the Nation" large online poll

National 50% (Down 1.7%)
Labour 26.8% (Up 2.2%)
Greens 6.2% (Up 0.2%)
ACT 5.2% (Up 0.4%)
Maori Party 3.5% (Down 0.2%)
NZ First 3.5% (Down 0.5%)
Other 2.9% (Down 0.3%)
United Future 1.3% (Up 0.1%)
Progressives 0.6% (Down 0.1%)

The results clearly don't favour Labour, but perhaps it's the trend that's of more importance.

[Major von Tempsky]

I note that the Tauranga Boys High School which has been a very accurate barometer of elections in the past came out with its results today.

National Party landslide with 71% was one finding.

The other was that National candidate Bridges was only 6% ahead of Winston First in Tauranga.

Hmmmmm....

[shasta]

I note that the Tauranga Boys High School which has been a very accurate barometer of elections in the past came out with its results today.

National Party landslide with 71% was one finding.

The other was that National candidate Bridges was only 6% ahead of Winston First in Tauranga.

Hmmmmm....

Is that another phoenix arising from the ashes MVT? :eek:

[J R Ewing]

It is a good bet that MMP is going to give us some very un-democratic results this time around:

NZ First will poll higher than Act, United and Progressive but won't get into parliament.

Act will be able to drag in list MP's on the basis of winning Epsom.

The Maori party will be seriously overrepresented on the basis of winning lots of list seats but very little party vote.

"Proportional representation" won't be either proportional or representative of the electorate.

I will vote Act on the party vote and abstain on the electorate - unless there is a McGillycuddy list candidate available.

[shasta]

It is a good bet that MMP is going to give us some very un-democratic results this time around:

NZ First will poll higher than Act, United and Progressive but won't get into parliament.

Act will be able to drag in list MP's on the basis of winning Epsom.

The Maori party will be seriously overrepresented on the basis of winning lots of list seats but very little party vote.

"Proportional representation" won't be either proportional or representative of the electorate.

I will vote Act on the party vote and abstain on the electorate - unless there is a McGillycuddy list candidate available.

I disagree, ACT will be the 4th biggest party, on both seats & party vote %, NZ First are gone, i just hope National or ACT pick up Ron Marks, he'd be my choice as Police Minister in a future National/ACt Govt.

[J R Ewing]

I disagree, ACT will be the 4th biggest party, on both seats & party vote %, NZ First are gone, i just hope National or ACT pick up Ron Marks, he'd be my choice as Police Minister in a future National/ACt Govt.

Whether or not Act polls higher than NZ First Act will get list MP's with less than 5% of the vote and NZ First will be gone (I hope). That result suits me just fine, but it doesn't stop me pointing out that the system is flawed.

[minimoke]

I disagree, ACT will be the 4th biggest party, on both seats & party vote %, NZ First are gone, i just hope National or ACT pick up Ron Marks, he'd be my choice as Police Minister in a future National/ACt Govt.
Fifth largest is more likely. You’ll have Labour, National, Greens and Maori with more seats than ACT. % of party vote doesn’t matter if you’re in an overhand situation. And it looks like Maori will gain more seats than their percentage.

[shasta]

Fifth largest is more likely. You’ll have Labour, National, Greens and Maori with more seats than ACT. % of party vote doesn’t matter if you’re in an overhand situation. And it looks like Maori will gain more seats than their percentage.

Forget about the Maori seats, & looks like we will be stuck with them!

[hiawatha]

[The move to keynesianism] is a fascinating indication that the free-market philosophies that held sway in this country as recently as the late 1990s, have been well and truly dumped in the bin. It's bad news for Act, which has dredged up the symbol of that discredited line of thinking, Sir Roger Douglas, as its trump card this election. Sadly for Act, it's playing a club when the rest of the table is calling hearts.

http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/what-might-have-been-might-be-better

An apt metaphor.

hiawatha

[shasta]

[The move to keynesianism] is a fascinating indication that the free-market philosophies that held sway in this country as recently as the late 1990s, have been well and truly dumped in the bin. It's bad news for Act, which has dredged up the symbol of that discredited line of thinking, Sir Roger Douglas, as its trump card this election. Sadly for Act, it's playing a club when the rest of the table is calling hearts.

http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/what-might-have-been-might-be-better

An apt metaphor.

hiawatha

Nice try, in reality ACT are moving up in each & every poll ;)

[minimoke]

Nice try, in reality ACT are moving up in each & every poll ;)
That might be so but even if ACT score 5 – 7% then 93 – 95% of the electorate still wants a left leaning government.

[shasta]

That might be so but even if ACT score 5 – 7% then 93 – 95% of the electorate still wants a left leaning government.

Your right, weird thing is that people want change, but seem to scared to actually go & vote for it!

National or Labour, not really much difference :confused:

[Major von Tempsky]

Huh? Who said Keynesianism is not free market?
Lord Maynard Keynes would have a fit!

Keynesianism is using economic factors such as interest rates, easy money, government spending, cutting taxes to influence the free market, not REPLACE it!

It's appropriate to use Keynesian now in our present situation but once that's over it will be back to minmalist government to maximise growth and monetarism to moderate inflation.

[shasta]

Huh? Who said Keynesianism is not free market?
Lord Maynard Keynes would have a fit!

Keynesianism is using economic factors such as interest rates, easy money, government spending, cutting taxes to influence the free market, not REPLACE it!

It's appropriate to use Keynesian now in our present situation but once that's over it will be back to minmalist government to maximise growth and monetarism to moderate inflation.

Not sure what thread this should go on, but as this thread is about the formation of the next Govt...

The sides are lining up, to the left Labour, Greens, Progressives (Jim)

To the centre/right - National & United Future

Why National would come out & say Peter Dunne was the preferred cab off the rank when he will be a party of 1, amazes me...:confused:

Either National are complacent & assume ACT's support (at least 3 on currently polling & maybe up to 5?), or foolishly don't think they require them (maybe only for Confidence & Supply?)

Seems to me Key is snuggling up to the Maori Party in lieu of ACT, & doesn't realise the Maori Party could easily go to Labour!

Dunne would be minister in National-led govt - Key

UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne would have a ministerial portfolio in a National-led government under a support agreement announced today.
Speaking at Parliament this morning, National leader John Key did not specify what portfolio Mr Dunne would be given under National but said he looked forward to 'Peter serving as a minister'.

Peter Dunne pledged UnitedFuture's support for National, saying after six years working with Labour the party believed its policies were more closely aligned with National's.

"We believe it is unlikely we will be able to make further progress on key UnitedFuture policies because of ideological barriers that have to some extent already been erected by Labour - barriers that would most certainly be entrenched by a Labour-Green-New Zealand First government," he said.

"It is also our view that New Zealand is looking for a change in direction and UnitedFuture wants to be a part of, and make a constructive contribution to that change."

Mr Key said National anticipated needing support from other parties to form a government and saw UnitedFuture as a natural support party.

"In fact, it is a preferred 'cab off the rank'," he said.

"Mr Dunne has served New Zealand as a Minister in both National and Labour led governments, and I respect his experience and the contribution he has made thus far.

"I look forward to Peter serving as a Minister in the next National-led government."

Both leaders listed infrastructure, health and law and order as areas of policy their parties could work on together

[Major von Tempsky]

I wouldn't get upset about National not mentioning ACT too much, sensible tactic at this time.

I was at a recent large political meeting, 8 candidates, lotsa people, and Brownlee and Hide sat next to each other, compared notes, were fairly matey, and generally supported each other with occasional disagreements.

[shasta]

I wouldn't get upset about National not mentioning ACT too much, sensible tactic at this time.

I was at a recent large political meeting, 8 candidates, lotsa people, and Brownlee and Hide sat next to each other, compared notes, were fairly matey, and generally supported each other with occasional disagreements.

Last Monday morning (1am) Ewing had Rodney Hide on Radio Live & taking talkback calls, was interesting a mix of him taking pot shots at National, but also playing the National/ACT card, was pushing the vote ACT for the party vote - what else would you expect!

One thing that he said that stood out, was the fact that ACT sits with the Maori Party & had a very good relationship with Turia & Sharples, & that ACT would have no problems working with them in a National led Govt.

National now have United Future, ACT & possibly the Maori Party as playmates...

So much for National not understanding MMP!

[Major von Tempsky]

Anyone seen anything more sickening than Winston First starting to make overtures to be part of a National led Government.

Chunder!

[shasta]

Anyone seen anything more sickening than Winston First starting to make overtures to be part of a National led Government.

Chunder!

I nearly choked myself when i heard that, has Winston no principles at all?

Key has bagged him (& rightly so) every chance he gets...

NZ First has some good policies, just a turkey of a leader...

Perhaps when Winston retires/gets the spanish archer, & Ron Marks is leading, a deal with National can be done...

[shasta]

I nearly choked myself when i heard that, has Winston no principles at all?

Key has bagged him (& rightly so) every chance he gets...

NZ First has some good policies, just a turkey of a leader...

Perhaps when Winston retires/gets the spanish archer, & Ron Marks is leading, a deal with National can be done...

http://dynamic.nzherald.co.nz/poll/pub/polls/index.cfm?action=results&pollid=30FA4A15-C756-7FE2-0B99F934FBAA018E&CFID=74543&CFTOKEN=53f4ea3ab7fb260d-8D34391D-EAF0-A891-476B71B36A3F69E1

Interesting poll on NZ Herald currently 73% of people will vote for the same party electorate & party vote!

[hiawatha]

http://dynamic.nzherald.co.nz/poll/pub/polls/index.cfm?action=results&pollid=30FA4A15-C756-7FE2-0B99F934FBAA018E&CFID=74543&CFTOKEN=53f4ea3ab7fb260d-8D34391D-EAF0-A891-476B71B36A3F69E1

Interesting poll on NZ Herald currently 73% of people will vote for the same party electorate & party vote!

No doubt the 27% are Labour supporters voting for Richard Worth. Bye bye, Rodney.
hiawatha

[shasta]

No doubt the 27% are Labour supporters voting for Richard Worth. Bye bye, Rodney.
hiawatha

In your dreams, it's a poll on the whole country NOT Epsom...

Why are you as a Green supporter, so afraid of ACT?

Seems you fear there increased presence in Govt?

You're very touchy considering ACT is polling as low as 2% in some polls

[hiawatha]

In your dreams, it's a poll on the whole country NOT Epsom...

Why are you as a Green supporter, so afraid of ACT?

Seems you fear there increased presence in Govt?

You're very touchy considering ACT is polling as low as 2% in some polls

ACT represents the lunatic fringe of right wing zealotry. That's why I fear them in government. Everybody should fear them.
hiawatha

[shasta]

ACT represents the lunatic fringe of right wing zealotry. That's why I fear them in government. Everybody should fear them.
hiawatha

You mean most sane people don't want some pop smoking socialists in Govt.

Good god, a pack of hippie protesters, that will cost this country plenty thru the kyoto protocol & the insane ETS bill...

Eco terrorists i reckon...:mad:

There social engineering agenda is as bad as Labours!

[hiawatha]

It seems to me Peter Dunne is taking a risk in committing to National. It looks as though the 16,000 odd votes he scored in 2005 would have included around 5,600 from Labour vote splitters. Other things being equal, if those vote splitters withdraw their support this time round and give it to their own candidate, Charles Chauvel, Dunne could easily lose the seat; after all, his majority is only about 7,000. Of course other things may not be equal and he may still squeak in. However it would appear he has just converted a safe seat into a marginal one.
hiawatha

[shasta]

It seems to me Peter Dunne is taking a risk in committing to National. It looks as though the 16,000 odd votes he scored in 2005 would have included around 5,600 from Labour vote splitters. Other things being equal, if those vote splitters withdraw their support this time round and give it to their own candidate, Charles Chauvel, Dunne could easily lose the seat; after all, his majority is only about 7,000. Of course other things may not be equal and he may still squeak in. However it would appear he has just converted a safe seat into a marginal one.
hiawatha

The Johnsonville folk really like Peter Dunne, he's like JIm Anderton, those seats are safe havens, just like Epsom ;)

[hiawatha]

The Johnsonville folk really like Peter Dunne, he's like JIm Anderton, those seats are safe havens, just like Epsom ;)

Yes, the Ohariu people do like Dunne; but the safety of his seat depended largely on the fact that he remained neutral as between National and Labour. Now that he has abandoned that neutrality his seat is not as safe as it was. Still, it looks as though 8,700 National supporters split their votes last time so he stood to lose more if he had committed to to Labour. I think he needs to cannibalise votes from one or other of the major parties the way the Greens appear to have cannibalised Labour's support, and perhaps he figured National was the safer option in his own set of circumstances.
hiawatha

[shasta]

Yes, the Ohariu people do like Dunne; but the safety of his seat depended largely on the fact that he remained neutral as between National and Labour. Now that he has abandoned that neutrality his seat is not as safe as it was.
hiawatha

There's so little difference between Labour & National, i doubt anyone in Dunne's electorate will care who he supports, he appeals to the conservative voter & he's not one to rock the boat.

Aside from his infamous tantrum (was it 2005, or 2002?)

[Major von Tempsky]

Like Tauranga, Ohariu/Karori is a true blue seat and any movements will see it returning to its National Party safe seat antecedents. True blue National Party voters may be misled for a time by local members who initially seem more conservative than conservative but once they see them supporting left wing governments their days are numbered.

In our catalogue of Winston First economies with the truth, leading him into trouble with Parliament. trouble with the Police and trouble with the Electoral Commission for telling big porkies, filling in false returns and constantly changing his story we overlooked one other sin - the $173,000 he owed the NZ taxpayer for pinching their money to illegally fund campaigning in the last election.

All the other parties repaid the taxpayer but not Winston. Very belatedly, the last one to do so, he agreed to pay up but still hasn't done so. (see article in today's Press).
Even then he tried some fast footwork by paying a charity which sensibly returned the cheque.
Then he said he had established a trust for about 15 different charities through his shifty mates Brian Henry etc.
Now it seems that the trust was not established until 3 months after he said it was and that absolutely nothing has been received by the named beneficiaries.
If the Speaker of the House was doing her duty this would not be acceptable - the taxpayers money should be repaid to the taxpayer the same as for the other parties.
Why has he been allowed to get away with this as well?

[shasta]

Like Tauranga, Ohariu/Karori is a true blue seat and any movements will see it returning to its National Party safe seat antecedents. True blue National Party voters may be misled for a time by local members who initially seem more conservative than conservative but once they see them supporting left wing governments their days are numbered.

In our catalogue of Winston First economies with the truth, leading him into trouble with Parliament. trouble with the Police and trouble with the Electoral Commission for telling big porkies, filling in false returns and constantly changing his story we overlooked one other sin - the $173,000 he owed the NZ taxpayer for pinching their money to illegally fund campaigning in the last election.

All the other parties repaid the taxpayer but not Winston. Very belatedly, the last one to do so, he agreed to pay up but still hasn't done so. (see article in today's Press).
Even then he tried some fast footwork by paying a charity which sensibly returned the cheque.
Then he said he had established a trust for about 15 different charities through his shifty mates Brian Henry etc.
Now it seems that the trust was not established until 3 months after he said it was and that absolutely nothing has been received by the named beneficiaries.
If the Speaker of the House was doing her duty this would not be acceptable - the taxpayers money should be repaid to the taxpayer the same as for the other parties.
Why has he been allowed to get away with this as well?

I see Winston donated $78,000 to the surivivor of the RSA massacre.

Very noble indeed, good one Winston!

[hiawatha]

Like Tauranga, Ohariu/Karori is a true blue seat and any movements will see it returning to its National Party safe seat antecedents. True blue National Party voters may be misled for a time by local members who initially seem more conservative than conservative but once they see them supporting left wing governments their days are numbered.

In our catalogue of Winston First economies with the truth, leading him into trouble with Parliament. trouble with the Police and trouble with the Electoral Commission for telling big porkies, filling in false returns and constantly changing his story we overlooked one other sin - the $173,000 he owed the NZ taxpayer for pinching their money to illegally fund campaigning in the last election.

All the other parties repaid the taxpayer but not Winston. Very belatedly, the last one to do so, he agreed to pay up but still hasn't done so. (see article in today's Press).
Even then he tried some fast footwork by paying a charity which sensibly returned the cheque.
Then he said he had established a trust for about 15 different charities through his shifty mates Brian Henry etc.
Now it seems that the trust was not established until 3 months after he said it was and that absolutely nothing has been received by the named beneficiaries.
If the Speaker of the House was doing her duty this would not be acceptable - the taxpayers money should be repaid to the taxpayer the same as for the other parties.
Why has he been allowed to get away with this as well?

I reside in the Ohariu electorate and I assure you it is not "true blue". At the last election, 16,000 gave their party vote to National, and 14,000 to Labour. 2,000 odd voted Green. Incidently, Karori is not, and never has been, part of our electorate.
hiawatha

[Major von Tempsky]

(Sorry Hi, there was a Karori electorate for donkeys years which was true blue, I used to live in it, I'd be very surprised if Karori and it's various names never included any part of Ohariu/Makara etc.)

He may have "donated" $78,000 of the taxpayers money to the woman, but the media report says she never has received any of it!
Just the next Winston First big scam and lie.
And Helengrad thinks the sun shines out of his a***!

[Placebo]

(Sorry Hi, there was a Karori electorate for donkeys years which was true blue, I used to live in it, I'd be very surprised if Karori and it's various names never included any part of Ohariu/Makara etc.)

He may have "donated" $78,000 of the taxpayers money to the woman, but the media report says she never has received any of it!
Just the next Winston First big scam and lie.
And Helengrad thinks the sun shines out of his a***!

Well the whole Winston donation drama just gets more scandalous. The money has given to a "trust" for whom the trustees are (wait for it) his "blood brother" lawyer Brian Henry. Who is, it seems working "for free" for Susan Couch as she tries to sue to Govt for negligence over the RSA shootings.

But wait, there's more :D. The "trust" is not a trust because it's not registered. Oh joy. And Mr Henry and his cronies can take "fair and reasonable" expenses from the trust account, on the case for which they are working "for free".

So, what do you know. The taxpayer money Winston took illegally has been given to his best mate to do with as he wishes at his discretion with no transparency in a non-registered entity.

Lawyers, eh? What's that old gag? What do you call 10 lawyers at the bottom of the sea? A good start...

A related question: Where are our journalists with balls enough to stand up to Winston, in a televised detabe/live interview, and next time he berates them with "when will you people ask the right questions?" or his usual vitriol, retort "when will you tell the truth about the money you illegally took from taxpayers?"

[hiawatha]

Well the whole Winston donation drama just gets more scandalous. The money has given to a "trust" for whom the trustees are (wait for it) his "blood brother" lawyer Brian Henry. Who is, it seems working "for free" for Susan Couch as she tries to sue to Govt for negligence over the RSA shootings.

But wait, there's more :D. The "trust" is not a trust because it's not registered. Oh joy. And Mr Henry and his cronies can take "fair and reasonable" expenses from the trust account, on the case for which they are working "for free".

So, what do you know. The taxpayer money Winston took illegally has been given to his best mate to do with as he wishes at his discretion with no transparency in a non-registered entity.

Lawyers, eh? What's that old gag? What do you call 10 lawyers at the bottom of the sea? A good start...

A related question: Where are our journalists with balls enough to stand up to Winston, in a televised detabe/live interview, and next time he berates them with "when will you people ask the right questions?" or his usual vitriol, retort "when will you tell the truth about the money you illegally took from taxpayers?"

I don't think a trust has to be registered. But if it wishes to enjoy the tax advantages of a charitable trust, it probably needs to be registered with IRD. And I don't think he took taxpayers' money illegally since the retrospective legislation makes it legal.
hiawatha

[Major von Tempsky]

Meanwhile Brian Henry continues hiding in South Africa so the media or Parliament or Police can't question him but he can take "fair and reasonable" expenses from the trust.

And yet there are still people who want to vote for Winston First.

They showed one old codger in Bluff the other night, he said he never watched TV or read papers but he wanted to vote for Winston.....

[hiawatha]

Meanwhile Brian Henry continues hiding in South Africa so the media or Parliament or Police can't question him but he can take "fair and reasonable" expenses from the trust.

And yet there are still people who want to vote for Winston First.

They showed one old codger in Bluff the other night, he said he never watched TV or read papers but he wanted to vote for Winston.....

He obviously hadn't been brainwashed by the media.
hiawatha

[shasta]

He obviously hadn't been brainwashed by the media.
hiawatha

May have been suffering from dementia like the rest of Winston's hardcore supporters...

Only reminder for them is there shiny gold card :D

[hiawatha]

May have been suffering from dementia like the rest of Winston's hardcore supporters...

Only reminder for them is there shiny gold card :D

He didn't seem demented. My late mother in law suffered from severe dementia. She supported National.
hiawatha

[shasta]

He didn't seem demented. My late mother in law suffered from severe dementia. She supported National.
hiawatha

All jokes aside, it's a bit sad that voters are so ignorant on who they vote for, that they don't even know about there policies...

The socialists, environmentalists & control freaks vote left, the more business friendly right, prefers to let people make there owns decisions & thus are more liberal.

But that stiff upper lip mentality of "i always voted for Winston, always will" is a sad endictment that very few voters actually udnerstand the MMP system & what there 2 votes mean...

I don't begrudge anyone for voting for the party whose policies sit best with them, so long as they understand what that party stands for!

I will continue to mock the looney left & Winston though, they make it too easy & comical :D

[minimoke]

The socialists, environmentalists & control freaks vote left, the more business friendly right, prefers to let people make there owns decisions & thus are more liberal.

That might have been so in the past but I’m not so sure such definitions are useful today. It depends how you define your continuum. On the Left you might have Government control, redistribution of wealth, power through collectivism, and where government made law defines a society then we would certainly have the Greens, Labour, National, Jim Anderton, United and NZ First – or 92% of the electorate. On the right you might have individual responsibility, less government intervention, equal opportunity for those who want it you probably have ACT - or 3% of the electorate. If you are looking at self sufficiency, the struggle of a race, oppose materialism, and wants one race to be supreme then you have the Maori Party – or 4% of the electorate. So if 92%+ of the electorate lean to the left than the continuum gets skewed in that direction. Apparently voters this year are looking for a change. Its apparent they want the same politics – maybe just a different Leader.

[Placebo]

That might have been so in the past but I’m not so sure such definitions are useful today. It depends how you define your continuum. On the Left you might have Government control, redistribution of wealth, power through collectivism, and where government made law defines a society then we would certainly have the Greens, Labour, National, Jim Anderton, United and NZ First – or 92% of the electorate. On the right you might have individual responsibility, less government intervention, equal opportunity for those who want it you probably have ACT - or 3% of the electorate. If you are looking at self sufficiency, the struggle of a race, oppose materialism, and wants one race to be supreme then you have the Maori Party – or 4% of the electorate. So if 92%+ of the electorate lean to the left than the continuum gets skewed in that direction. Apparently voters this year are looking for a change. Its apparent they want the same politics – maybe just a different Leader.

This is a sharetrading site and we all understand (or think we do) how the market operates... one of the things the market doesn't like is surprises, and the electorate is really no different - what is the electorate but a vote market?

So in my view, the current economic turmoil is a big plus for the incumbent Government. The way polls were heading, it needed a tsunami-sized upheaval to stop National strolling into power, and that might just be what's happening. When times are uncertain, people want assurance that their leaders are on top of what's happening. In this case:

The Govt isn't seen to be responsible for the current troubles
Anyone with contacts overseas will know things are waaay worse over there
The Govt has reacted responsibly (or been seen to) with its bank deposits guarantee
The Govt has been in power 9 years and has a solid economic record
The Opposition is something of an unknown quantity.

I guess following that logic, the longer the turmoil goes on the better it is for Labour...

[hiawatha]

This is a sharetrading site and we all understand (or think we do) how the market operates... one of the things the market doesn't like is surprises, and the electorate is really no different - what is the electorate but a vote market?

So in my view, the current economic turmoil is a big plus for the incumbent Government. The way polls were heading, it needed a tsunami-sized upheaval to stop National strolling into power, and that might just be what's happening. When times are uncertain, people want assurance that their leaders are on top of what's happening. In this case:

The Govt isn't seen to be responsible for the current troubles
Anyone with contacts overseas will know things are waaay worse over there
The Govt has reacted responsibly (or been seen to) with its bank deposits guarantee
The Govt has been in power 9 years and has a solid economic record
The Opposition is something of an unknown quantity.

I guess following that logic, the longer the turmoil goes on the better it is for Labour...

Also, if voters think we are heading for a depression, they'll start think thinking about the last depression, and they'll remember that Labour was the party that produced Michael Joseph Savage.
hiawatha

[shasta]

This is a sharetrading site and we all understand (or think we do) how the market operates... one of the things the market doesn't like is surprises, and the electorate is really no different - what is the electorate but a vote market?

So in my view, the current economic turmoil is a big plus for the incumbent Government. The way polls were heading, it needed a tsunami-sized upheaval to stop National strolling into power, and that might just be what's happening. When times are uncertain, people want assurance that their leaders are on top of what's happening. In this case:

The Govt isn't seen to be responsible for the current troubles
Anyone with contacts overseas will know things are waaay worse over there
The Govt has reacted responsibly (or been seen to) with its bank deposits guarantee
The Govt has been in power 9 years and has a solid economic record
The Opposition is something of an unknown quantity.

I guess following that logic, the longer the turmoil goes on the better it is for Labour...

I largely agree with you Placebo, only problem is the opposition are so alike what's already there, the change everyone seemingly wants probably won't happen, even if there is a change of Govt...

[J R Ewing]

Also, if voters think we are heading for a depression, they'll start think thinking about the last depression, and they'll remember that Labour was the party that produced Michael Joseph Savage.
hiawatha

In much the same way as the Labour Party produced Roger Douglas.

[minimoke]

I guess following that logic, the longer the turmoil goes on the better it is for Labour...
I’m inclined to agree except National isn’t offering radical change. Indeed its pretty much Labour dressed up in a different suit.



By election day we’ll see lower petrol prices, lower taxes and lower interest rates –all things that will be of importance to the electorate. These issues will be in Labours favour.



The increased cost of imports won’t have struck by then and we’re at the front of the redundancy wave. Do you vote for someone in the hope they will save the redundancy situation or for a party that will look after you when you are inevitably made redundant. I think the former – which will again see votes bleed from National to Labour.



At the beginning of the year this was Nationals election to loose – but that was before the reality of American financial market management hit home. The elector, like an investor will be more inclined towards a safe haven – that being the devil you know.

[hiawatha]

In much the same way as the Labour Party produced Roger Douglas.

And then booted him out.
hiawatha

[fungus pudding]

And then booted him out.
hiawatha


Yeah - silly weren't they. They haven't found anyone worth having since.

[hiawatha]

Yeah - silly weren't they. They haven't found anyone worth having since.

David Lange considered him a raving looney because of the flat tax proposal. David was right.
hiawatha

[shasta]

David Lange considered him a raving looney because of the flat tax proposal. David was right.
hiawatha

Lange was a fat incompetent fool, & very few have anything nice to say about him...

Plus the dirty rat cheated on Margaret :(

[hiawatha]

Lange was a fat incompetent fool, & very few have anything nice to say about him...

Plus the dirty rat cheated on Margaret :(

David Lange had charisma. It was those around him who were meant to provide policy. Too late he realised that he had surrounded himself with a bunch of incompetent fools - Douglas, Caygill, Prebble etc.
hiawatha
ps: don't you mean Naomi? But Naomi was the wife who refused to live with him in Wellington, preferring instead to continue living in Auckland. It was her own silly fault if David got involved with Margeret Pope in Wellington.

[shasta]

David Lange had charisma. It was those around him who were meant to provide policy. Too late he realised that he had surrounded himself with a bunch of incompetent fools - Douglas, Caygill, Prebble etc.
hiawatha
ps: don't you mean Naomi? But Naomi was the wife who refused to live with him in Wellington, preferring instead to continue living in Auckland. It was her own silly fault if David got involved with Margeret Pope in Wellington.

Yeah that's who i meant, thanks

Imagine if Lange was still around to see Sir Roger go full circle & back in Cabinet!

[J R Ewing]

In much the same way as the Labour Party produced Roger Douglas.

My point was that the Savage incarnation of the Labour party was quite different from the Lange incarnation, and both are different to the Clarke incarnation. I think political parties are the product of those that lead them at the time rather than the leaders being a product of the parties.

[Major von Tempsky]

The point is that Lange was a total economic ignoramus.
He started off totally lacking in the econo0mic policy area, Douglas was around with ideas from Milton Friedman and Margaret Thatcher that had worked in conquering stagflation plus how to get NZ out of its siege economy/fixed exchange rate straitjacket and Lange went with it.
Its interesting to note from biographers that the real reason Lange stopped for a cup of tea was that he had hooked up with Margaret Pope, a way out left-winger, who did all she could to poison him against Douglas.

Its a fitting epitaph that people remember Lange's time as PM for what Douglas accomplished as Min of Fin - lower taxes, end to featherbedding in the Public Service (railways down from 23,000 employees to 5,000 but still outputting the same services), flexible exchange rate, independent central bank, government surpluses and economic growth.
Its also a fitting epitaph that despite lots of mouthing Clark's government has left most of the Douglas reforms untouched.
Here endeth the lesson.

[Placebo]

My point was that the Savage incarnation of the Labour party was quite different from the Lange incarnation, and both are different to the Clarke incarnation. I think political parties are the product of those that lead them at the time rather than the leaders being a product of the parties.

Hmm. Now this IS interesting. Both the Savage and Lange governments are significant because of the changes they wrought to New Zealand's social and economic landscape. They were both, of course, Labour governments, and succeeded `conservative' administrations (Reform and National). The situation we currently have, of course, is a Labour administration under challenge from National.

If there is a common link between Savage and Lange it is that they were `big ideas' administrations. Savage is widely credited with heralding in the welfare state as we currently know it (though aspects of it were already in place). The Lange government began the dismantling of state subsidies for industry/agriculture, embarked on de-nationalisation of assets, floated the currency, separated the government's role from that of the reserve bank etc.

On that ideas front, is there a comparison with the current contest? Is there a party appealing to the electorate as one bringing a bold new vision based on new ideas and aspirations?

I can't see it...

[hiawatha]

Hmm. Now this IS interesting. Both the Savage and Lange governments are significant because of the changes they wrought to New Zealand's social and economic landscape. They were both, of course, Labour governments, and succeeded `conservative' administrations (Reform and National). The situation we currently have, of course, is a Labour administration under challenge from National.

If there is a common link between Savage and Lange it is that they were `big ideas' administrations. Savage is widely credited with heralding in the welfare state as we currently know it (though aspects of it were already in place). The Lange government began the dismantling of state subsidies for industry/agriculture, embarked on de-nationalisation of assets, floated the currency, separated the government's role from that of the reserve bank etc.

On that ideas front, is there a comparison with the current contest? Is there a party appealing to the electorate as one bringing a bold new vision based on new ideas and aspirations?

I can't see it...

Labour has always been the innovator, National the follower.
The current administration, however, seems to have embarked on a program of undoing most of the changes that Douglas introduced. They have revised the top tax rate upwards, repurchased assets (and I'm sure they would like to repurchase a lot more), replaced Postbank with Kiwibank, and have already hinted at a review of monetary policy. I suspect that Bollard may find his independence somewhat curtailed if Labour get back in.
I suspect also that Douglas's initiatives in trimming the state services have largely made no difference. The only things of Douglas that remain are the floating dollar and the removal of of import restrictions, and these remain largely as a result of their being orthodox internationally. The freeing of imports was necessitated by Britain's entry into the the EEC and had reputedly been part of Jack Marshall's agenda.
hiawatha

[J R Ewing]

On that ideas front, is there a comparison with the current contest? Is there a party appealing to the electorate as one bringing a bold new vision based on new ideas and aspirations?

I can't see it...

The Nats seem to think that we can fix the economic crisis with a bit more social welfare, does that count?

[shasta]

The Nats seem to think that we can fix the economic crisis with a bit more social welfare, does that count?

Results from the recent Pulse of the Nation update (Large Online Poll)

National 50.6% (-10%) = 40.6% + 6.2% +1.3% = 48.1%
Labour 24.6% (+10%) = 34.6% + 5.8% + 0.6% + 4.6% = 45.6%
ACT 6.2%
Greens 5.8%
NZ First 4.6%
Maori Party 3.2% - = Balance of power!
Other 3.1%
United Future 1.3%
Progressives 0.6%

Again this does favour National, so take 10% off them & add 10% to Labour, for a more reasonable representation... (The NZPA polls suggest i shouldnt take any off National!)

It's the trend here that tells the story, ACT on the rise, as is NZ First (thats a worry), Greens dropping off a touch & the Maori largely unchanged.

Using my scenerio above, the "Left Block" with the Maori Party = 48.8% & thats the dreaded "5 head monster", & they would still need Peter Dunne!

He's already ruled out a deal with Labour, so ACT would hold the balance of power, would Helen really want them in a 6 headed monster coalition?

Whats the chances of neither side getting to 50% & a return to the polls?

[shasta]

Results from the recent Pulse of the Nation update (Large Online Poll)

National 50.6% (-10%) = 40.6% + 6.2% +1.3% = 48.1%
Labour 24.6% (+10%) = 34.6% + 5.8% + 0.6% + 4.6% = 45.6%
ACT 6.2%
Greens 5.8%
NZ First 4.6%
Maori Party 3.2% - = Balance of power!
Other 3.1%
United Future 1.3%
Progressives 0.6%

Again this does favour National, so take 10% off them & add 10% to Labour, for a more reasonable representation...

It's the trend here that tells the story, ACT on the rise, as is NZ First (thats a worry), Greens dropping off a touch & the Maori largely unchanged.

Using my scenerio above, the "Left Block" with the Maori Party = 48.8% & thats the dreaded "5 head monster", & they would still need Peter Dunne!

He's already ruled out a deal with Labour, so ACT would hold the balance of power, would Helen really want them in a 6 headed monster coalition?

Whats the chances of neither side getting to 50% & a return to the polls?

This poll from the NZ Herald

National holding strong - NZPA rolling poll

Less than two weeks out from election day, Labour is struggling to erode the fortress of support National has built up, NZPA's rolling poll shows.
Since the NZPA rolling poll began on August 27, National has had a handy party vote lead, enough to grab a majority with support only from ACT.

Now that United Future has indicated that it too backs National, the right wing majority has increased a further seat to 64, in what would be a 124-seat Parliament.

As the average of the last six published polls, the NZPA rolling poll smooths fluctuations.

It showed National on a slow decline, but still with 47.9 per cent party vote support - good for 61 seats in a 124-seat House - ahead of Labour's 35.2 per cent.

National ally ACT was on 1.9 per cent, the Greens were gaining strength at 7.5 per cent, with United Future at 0.6 per cent, the Maori Party at 2.5 per cent, and New Zealand First at 2.9 per cent.

NZ First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 per cent of votes cast to return to Parliament.

Tauranga electorate polling has leader Winston Peters behind National candidate Simon Bridges.

But were Mr Peters to find a way back into Parliament it would be a blow to National, which has ruled out working with him.

If NZ First was to win Tauranga it would secure at least four seats, a tally that would bolster the left and give the Maori Party the balance of power.

- NZPA has allocated the Maori Party six seats - based on current polls in the Maori electorate seats.

United Future and the Progressives were assumed to hold one electorate seat apiece.

- NZPA

[minimoke]

He's already ruled out a deal with Labour, so ACT would hold the balance of power, would Helen really want them in a 6 headed monster coalition?

Peter Dunne is an eternal pragmatist. All cards are off the table on 8 November and a new hand played on 9 November. Lets see which part offers him the best deal on the day!
Edit - and he may just pick up two seats!

[hiawatha]

Peter Dunne is an eternal pragmatist. All cards are off the table on 8 November and a new hand played on 9 November. Lets see which part offers him the best deal on the day!
Edit - and he may just pick up two seats!

It's also quite on the cards that he may lose his own seat.
hiawatha

[Placebo]

Maori Party's party vote isn't really relevant, they will get their members through electorate seats only. Which will probably create a large-ish overhang in the next parliament - there might be up to 125 members, not 120.

Poll schmoll.

Here's my predictions:

National won't get within a bull's roar of 50%. If they are to form a government, they will have to hold hands with someone.
ACT won't reach 5% threshold so will depend on electorate win in Epsom.
NZ First WILL reach 5%.
Green vote will touch 10%

[shasta]

Maori Party's party vote isn't really relevant, they will get their members through electorate seats only. Which will probably create a large-ish overhang in the next parliament - there might be up to 125 members, not 120.

Poll schmoll.

Here's my predictions:

National won't get within a bull's roar of 50%. If they are to form a government, they will have to hold hands with someone.
ACT won't reach 5% threshold so will depend on electorate win in Epsom.
NZ First WILL reach 5%.
Green vote will touch 10%

God i hope your wrong...

When the voters say they wanted change, i didn't think it was the Greens swapping chairs with NZ First!

[shasta]

God i hope your wrong...

When the voters say they wanted change, i didn't think it was the Greens swapping chairs with NZ First!

Results of the final "Pulse of the Nation" large online poll.

National 50.8% (up 0.2%)
Labour 23.2% (down 1.4%)
ACT 6.9% (up 0.7%)
Greens 6.1% (up 1.1%)
Maori Party 4.0% (up 0.8%)
Other 3.3% (up 0.2%)
NZ First 3.1% (down 1.5%)
United Future 1.7% (up 0.4%)
Progressives 0.9% (up 0.3%)

Again it's more the trend here than the pure results....

I wouldn't think there was much change of National getting 50% :confused:

[hiawatha]

NZ First, if they get back in, look like becoming the "last cab on the rank". As the good book says, the First shall be last.
hiawatha

[minimoke]

Results of the final "Pulse of the Nation" large online poll.

.....

Again it's more the trend here than the pure results....

I wouldn't think there was much change of National getting 50% :confused:
Come Sunday we will have a left wing Government. The only questions is just far left will it be.

[fungus pudding]

Come Sunday we will have a left wing Government. The only questions is just far left will it be.

Quite so.
I'm often amused by the main parties throwing about the labels 'centre left, 'centre right'etc. Both are misnomers, but repeated often enough people believe them. National is simply a near-centre party, while
labour are hard left.

[minimoke]

Quite so.
I'm often amused by the main parties throwing about the labels 'centre left, 'centre right'etc. Both are misnomers, but repeated often enough people believe them. National is simply a near-centre party, while
labour are hard left.
I’m not so sure Labour is hard left – though they will certainly be dragged that way with the Greens. Centre left fits reasonably well. There is virtually nothing to distinguish National from Labour so they need to fall in the same camp. They are both for anti- smacking, no nuclear, climate change, public funded health and education, more police etc etc – all of which involves government intervention and tax payer spend. Each accuse the other of stealing their policy. Sure they try to argue their own ground but its essentially just a tweaking around the edges of the same basic policy.

I’d even go so far to suggest that if we were to cut and pasted Helen and john into the others policy we’d see the polls showing strong support for National – even though he would be presenting Labours Policy!

[shasta]

I’m not so sure Labour is hard left – though they will certainly be dragged that way with the Greens. Centre left fits reasonably well. There is virtually nothing to distinguish National from Labour so they need to fall in the same camp. They are both for anti- smacking, no nuclear, climate change, public funded health and education, more police etc etc – all of which involves government intervention and tax payer spend. Each accuse the other of stealing their policy. Sure they try to argue their own ground but its essentially just a tweaking around the edges of the same basic policy.

I’d even go so far to suggest that if we were to cut and pasted Helen and john into the others policy we’d see the polls showing strong support for National – even though he would be presenting Labours Policy!

They did that very trick in the USA, they showed a group of African Americans McCains policies with Obama's picture, they all liked the policies even though they were Democrats!

With Labour & National alledgedly fighting for the centre, it's the impact of the Greens & ACT that will determine how far left or right they go.

Thats why both Helen & John are campaigning for 2 ticks, they don't want to be seen moving away from the centre!

National is & will always be closer to the centre than Labour.

[shasta]

They did that very trick in the USA, they showed a group of African Americans McCains policies with Obama's picture, they all liked the policies even though they were Democrats!

With Labour & National alledgedly fighting for the centre, it's the impact of the Greens & ACT that will determine how far left or right they go.

Thats why both Helen & John are campaigning for 2 ticks, they don't want to be seen moving away from the centre!

National is & will always be closer to the centre than Labour.

Election '08 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-election-2008/news/headlines.cfm?c_id=1501799)

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Final poll gives it to Key - and his allies http://www.nzherald.co.nz/cssimagesjs/gfx/icon-photo-small.gif (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-election-2008/news/image.cfm?c_id=1501799&gal_objectid=10541601&gallery_id=102864)

There will be a change of Government after tomorrow's election if the Herald-DigiPoll survey taken in the closing days of the campaign is translated to votes.

It shows National could form a new government with micro-parties Act and United Future. The three parties would have 64 seats between them, two more than the majority needed.

They would not need the support of the Maori Party to govern, although National leader John Key has said he would try to work with the party even if he did not need it.

National's support has fallen 2.5 points in the past fortnight to 47.9 per cent.
It is the first time it has been below 50 per cent since March this year.
But Mr Key is well ahead as preferred Prime Minister, with 46.2 per cent support, compared to Helen Clark's 41.6 per cent.

That is a drop of nearly four points for Helen Clark since the last poll a fortnight ago.

Mr Key has locked in Act and United Future for any government he leads with the promise of ministerial posts.

Two television polls last night also put National in power with Act and United Future, and without needing the Maori Party.

Mr Key will end his campaign today in West Auckland and his Helensville electorate after visits to Wellington, Palmerston North and New Plymouth.
Helen Clark has a marathon of visits in South and West Auckland, ending in a pub visit in Mt Eden and dinner in Ponsonby.

Labour fell only slightly in the new Herald poll, to 36.4 per cent. It, the Greens and the Progressive totalled 42.4 per cent support.
But that is eight points behind National, Act and United Future, on 50.4 per cent.

Small movements in smaller parties could have a dramatic impact on the election result.
The Greens have been consistently close to the 5 per cent threshold in polls and the margin of error on their 5.8 per cent is plus or minus 1.5.

New Zealand First again failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold and on 3.9 per cent would not get back into Parliament. But the margin of error on its result is plus or minus 1.3 per cent.

A gain of 1.1 points would not only return it to Parliament but enable it to hold the balance of power.

The popularity of party leader Winston Peters rose - almost 5 per cent of the voters polled want him to be Prime Minister.

National would have 61 seats, Act 2 and United Future 1 in a 123-seat Parliament.

The seat calculations are based on the assumption that the Maori Party would win five of the seven electorate seats.

This is what the DigiPoll survey for TVNZ's Marae programme indicated would happen.

That would put the Maori Party and the Progressive Party in overhang - winning more electorate seats that their party vote entitlement - and would expand the size of Parliament by three seats.

Mr Key said last night he sensed there was "a strong mood for change, and we'll see if that is demonstrated in the final result on Saturday night".
The same mood for change had been evident in Australia last year when it changed Government, in the United States this week and "I believe it exists in New Zealand".

Helen Clark said it would be "a travesty if that great democracy the United States, having moved left as a reaction against what's happened in the international markets ... if that were not matched by New Zealand staying with progressive politics".

"Change to what is the issue. You never have a change in government without a substantial change in policy being the consequence."

* The poll of 981 respondents was conducted between October 29 and November 5 and has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent. The undecideds were 6.2 per cent.

[hiawatha]

oh well, in that case why not appoint John Key PM and save ourselves he trouble and expense of an election. Democracy by opinion poll. The trouble is, which poll will we use? We haven't seen the latest Roy Morgan yet, and in the past that one seems to have been the most accurate predicter.
hiawatha

[Placebo]

Yes polls are fairly meaningless, except they can be influential to fence-sitters. Everyone loves to back a winner, so if people are undecided the published polls can lead them in a particular direction.

Voting's just like going down the TAB, right? You always back the favourite ;)

[Major von Tempsky]

Don't forget there's still 130,000 unenrolled voters who are probably Labour (follows since they are too lazy, thick and disorganised to enroll), plus what - 10% plus who won't bother voting because they are too lazy, thick and disorganised, or in the case of the Greens too high on marijuana to bother.
I noted the media comment that in the last few elections the Greens have scored rather more highly in the lead-up polls than in the election.
Any rain, cold winds & will also be a National benefit for obvious reasons....

[hiawatha]

The latest Roy Morgan poll (out today) gives National 54 seats, ACT 5, United 1, total 60.
Labour 44, Green 13, Progessive 1, total 58. Maoris 4, NZ First 0. Labour forms government if Maoris support them or if NZ First gets back in. NZ First has 4.5% of vote according to RM.
hiawatha

[shasta]

The latest Roy Morgan poll (out today) gives National 54 seats, ACT 5, United 1, total 60.
Labour 44, Green 13, Progessive 1, total 58. Maoris 4, NZ First 0. Labour forms government if Maoris support them or if NZ First gets back in. NZ First has 4.5% of vote according to RM.
hiawatha

Yeah that poll has shown itself to be the LEAST accurate...

The TV3 poll has been regarded at the MOST accurate...

Big Labour/Greens bias in the RM polls, no other polls have them collectively anywhere near 57 seats!

[hiawatha]

Yeah that poll has shown itself to be the LEAST accurate...

The TV3 poll has been regarded at the MOST accurate...

Big Labour/Greens bias in the RM polls, no other polls have them collectively anywhere near 57 seats!

In 2005, the Roy Morgan seems to have the closest to the actual result. Besides, I understand that the Labour party's internal polling puts the LPG team ahead, though I'm not sure whether this is with Maori support or not.
I seem to recall that "other polls" were at one time giving National 56%. Hardly a good reflection on their competence.
hiawatha

[shasta]

In 2005, the Roy Morgan seems to have the closest to the actual result. Besides, I understand that the Labour party's internal polling puts the LPG team ahead, though I'm not sure whether this is with Maori support or not.
I seem to recall that "other polls" were at one time giving National 56%. Hardly a good reflection on there competence.
hiawatha

Of course Labour's internal polls show them ahead of the rest, they dont pay spin doctors to highlight the cold reality!

I've seen polls suggesting ACT may get 6 - 7%, & closer to 10 MP's...

Sometimes we only see what we want to, huh?

[ScrappyO]

here's a link that shows the final polls from 5 different organisations.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/vote08/0a28917.html?source=nav

[shasta]

here's a link that shows the final polls from 5 different organisations.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/vote08/0a28917.html?source=nav

That link has gone down, no more electioneering!

[minimoke]

I couldn’t get all the options into the poll but looks like none of us predicted a National party governing alone with ACT there on supply and confidence!