Gloucester Coal (GCL)

[Huang Chung]

Quarterly report out today.

Concluding comments:

Whilst recent events in the global financial markets have created turmoil and uncertainty; Gloucester Coal - with its low cost operations, strong balance sheet, product versatility and solid thermal and coking coal commitments - continues to look towards a positive future and expects a record profit this financial year.

Price has been smashed...over $9 off its 52 week high, and just $1 off its 52 week lows. Maybe next years contracts won't be as profitable, but, geez, with a record profit coming up, is the market discounting the price or what :eek:.

Company has also initiated a buy-back, which seems like the right move given the price pullback.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=526025

[shasta]

Quarterly report out today.

Concluding comments:

Whilst recent events in the global financial markets have created turmoil and uncertainty; Gloucester Coal - with its low cost operations, strong balance sheet, product versatility and solid thermal and coking coal commitments - continues to look towards a positive future and expects a record profit this financial year.

Price has been smashed...over $9 off its 52 week high, and just $1 off its 52 week lows. Maybe next years contracts won't be as profitable, but, geez, with a record profit coming up, is the market discounting the price or what :eek:.

Company has also initiated a buy-back, which seems like the right move given the price pullback.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=526025


Good stuff HC, i didn't realise there wasn't a GCL thread ;)

GCL Presentation from September - Brief Overview

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=519243

[Huang Chung]

Chuggin' along nicely ;).

Chairman's address:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=526919

CEO's address:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=526922

CEO's presentation:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=526920

[Zephyrus]

Yes, and based on the increase in coal price contracts, they should at least double their earnings this year & triple their profit.

[soulman]

Good work HC. Nice to see all the coal miner having a good day.

On-market buyback began yesterday as well so a bit of confidence in their capital management and cash flows.

[macduffy]

Well, I'm in there today for better or for worse. Have been tracking GCL for a while now and at about 30% of its 52 week high I reckon its worth a small chunk of my money.
Had great difficulty in deciding between GCL, NHC and CEY for a coal play. Finally decided on GCL for its split of coking/thermal, spread of contract periods, lower P/E and higher yield ( at least v NHC ), more chance of corporate activity ( 72% of NHC with 2 big s/holders ). Factors against include smaller size and reliance on Newcastle port with its congestion problem. This seems to be easing and may be less of an issue if world recession takes hold.

Would be interested in others' views. Keeping cash back to look at alternatives.

;)

[Dr_Who]

Macd, is that you pushing the price up? ;):p

I will do more reading into this pup over the weekend. :)

How does financials for GCL compare to PRC?

[Huang Chung]

Well, I'm in there today for better or for worse. Have been tracking GCL for a while now and at about 30% of its 52 week high I reckon its worth a small chunk of my money.
Had great difficulty in deciding between GCL, NHC and CEY for a coal play. Finally decided on GCL for its split of coking/thermal, spread of contract periods, lower P/E and higher yield ( at least v NHC ), more chance of corporate activity ( 72% of NHC with 2 big s/holders ). Factors against include smaller size and reliance on Newcastle port with its congestion problem. This seems to be easing and may be less of an issue if world recession takes hold.

Would be interested in others' views. Keeping cash back to look at alternatives.

;)

I solved the problem by taking a stake in both GCL and NHC.

GCL is more volatile and quite probably will see the better gains when things turn, whilst NHC's cash backing provides downside protection. I really feel they have different strengths, and compliment each other in a portfolio.



A couple of interesting snippits from today's GCL releases.

They are debt free
They recieve the highest price for any coal exported though the port of Newcastle for their semi-hard coking coal.

[Zephyrus]

Has anyone looked into McArthur Coal (MCC)? Seems to be earning very good revenues also. Unfortunately, they've hedged their revenues at around 0.9 US/AU$, so they won't benefit from the low AU$. Lots of dosh coming in still though.

[shasta]

Has anyone looked into McArthur Coal (MCC)? Seems to be earning very good revenues also. Unfortunately, they've hedged their revenues at around 0.9 US/AU$, so they won't benefit from the low AU$. Lots of dosh coming in still though.

Yes, i've run the ruler over a few coal plays, & to be honest i found it hard to separate GCL/MCC & NHC, all meet my investment criteria!

GCL & MCC have quite explosive EPS growth potential, whereas NHC has a boat load of cash & some non coal projects.

I favour GCL over MCC...just, but like NHC as it is set to make extraordinary returns to shareholders over the next 12 months...

NHC for yield & stable returns, GCL for growth ;)

[macduffy]

Macquarie Equities recently ( 24 October ) reviewed GCL and have estimated NP to rise from $23.4m in 08 to $132.3m ! in 09. P/E goes from 14.8 to an estimated 2.6 and Yield from 4.9% to 16%.
Rated "Outperform" with a 12 month price target of $6-46 but despite this Macq Eq " prefer CEY and Felix Resources " as Aust coal producers.

They must be good!

;)

[macduffy]

Macd, is that you pushing the price up? ;):p

I will do more reading into this pup over the weekend. :)

How does financials for GCL compare to PRC?


Hi doc.

Not my small parcel!

I havn't looked at PRC. GCL financials are looking rock solid with the last of the debt paid off in the quarter ended 30 Sept, new contracts written at increased prices ( up 270% in some cases ) and increasing profitability.

;)

[Dr_Who]

Macquarie Equities recently ( 24 October ) reviewed GCL and have estimated NP to rise from $23.4m in 08 to $132.3m ! in 09. P/E goes from 14.8 to an estimated 2.6 and Yield from 4.9% to 16%.
Rated "Outperform" with a 12 month price target of $6-46 but despite this Macq Eq " prefer CEY and Felix Resources " as Aust coal producers.

They must be good!

;)

Just becareful of Macquarie research. I recall they had an outperform on GCL in Aug when the sp was $10. I also recall MAQ making a number of wrong calls for the resource sector and got hammered..eg: OZL etc.

[macduffy]

Just becareful of Macquarie research. I recall they had an outperform on GCL in Aug when the sp was $10. I also recall MAQ making a number of wrong calls for the resource sector and got hammered..eg: OZL etc.

Caution applies to all research reports.

The golden rule is DYOR!

;)

[shasta]

Caution applies to all research reports.

The golden rule is DYOR!

;)

Outlook sound despite crisis: Gloucester Coal

GLOUCESTER Coal said today the outlook for its coal business remains sound, despite the global financial crisis.

Chairman Andy Hogendijk will tell shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting later today that Gloucester Coal is looking forward to another record profit this year.

“Looking forward, and notwithstanding some shorter term issues associated with the current global financial situation, we believe the fundamentals for our coal business remain very sound,” he said.

“Our quality coking coal with high fluidity will continue to be in strong demand by steel producers.”

Mr Hogendijk said the industrialisation and urbanisation of large developing economies such as China and India over the next 10 to 20 years will continue to drive significant demand on the world seaborne traded market for coking coal.

“Thermal coal too looks to be a positive story as new coal fired power stations are being built to meet the growing and base load energy requirements of an industrialising Asia,” he added.

Mr Hogendijk said the company had locked in contract prices for the bulk of its coking and thermal business at prices in excess of $130 per tonne.

“This should enable us to produce strong surplus cash flows and we expect to report a record profit for the year,” he said.

In August, Gloucester Coal (http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au/) reported a 2007/08 net profit of $23.445 million, a rise of 30 per cent on the previous year.

Chief executive Rob Lord said the company was well placed to weather the economic storm sweeping the world.

“These conditions are obviously affecting the resources sector, our coal sector peers, and the Gloucester Coal share price,” Mr Lord said.

“The members of the board, the senior management and myself have watched with concern as our share price has fallen to its current levels.

“I am confident that, over time, our share price will recover to reflect the strong investment fundamentals of the company.”

Mr Lord added that the company’s fundamentals were strong.

“Despite the recent volatility in some commodity prices, I believe there will be strong ongoing demand for coal both coking and thermal - especially from our major export markets in Asia,” he said.

Gloucester shares last traded at $3.59.

[shasta]

Outlook sound despite crisis: Gloucester Coal

GLOUCESTER Coal said today the outlook for its coal business remains sound, despite the global financial crisis.

Chairman Andy Hogendijk will tell shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting later today that Gloucester Coal is looking forward to another record profit this year.

“Looking forward, and notwithstanding some shorter term issues associated with the current global financial situation, we believe the fundamentals for our coal business remain very sound,” he said.

“Our quality coking coal with high fluidity will continue to be in strong demand by steel producers.”

Mr Hogendijk said the industrialisation and urbanisation of large developing economies such as China and India over the next 10 to 20 years will continue to drive significant demand on the world seaborne traded market for coking coal.

“Thermal coal too looks to be a positive story as new coal fired power stations are being built to meet the growing and base load energy requirements of an industrialising Asia,” he added.

Mr Hogendijk said the company had locked in contract prices for the bulk of its coking and thermal business at prices in excess of $130 per tonne.

“This should enable us to produce strong surplus cash flows and we expect to report a record profit for the year,” he said.

In August, Gloucester Coal (http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au/) reported a 2007/08 net profit of $23.445 million, a rise of 30 per cent on the previous year.

Chief executive Rob Lord said the company was well placed to weather the economic storm sweeping the world.

“These conditions are obviously affecting the resources sector, our coal sector peers, and the Gloucester Coal share price,” Mr Lord said.

“The members of the board, the senior management and myself have watched with concern as our share price has fallen to its current levels.

“I am confident that, over time, our share price will recover to reflect the strong investment fundamentals of the company.”

Mr Lord added that the company’s fundamentals were strong.

“Despite the recent volatility in some commodity prices, I believe there will be strong ongoing demand for coal both coking and thermal - especially from our major export markets in Asia,” he said.

Gloucester shares last traded at $3.59.

This presentation was from the GCL AGM

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081029/pdf/31d6st1bjws00x.pdf

[countryboy]

GCL has been very kind to me over the last few weeks .Bought below $3.90 and sold above $4.30 several times..small profits but in this market I'll take what i can get

now if it can continue on like this until 2010 Ill recoup about 1/2 what i have lost in the last 2 mths !

forecast earning will be interestings please correct me but predictions were around 70c in 2009 growing to more than $1 in 2010

[shasta]

GCL has been very kind to me over the last few weeks .Bought below $3.90 and sold above $4.30 several times..small profits but in this market I'll take what i can get

now if it can continue on like this until 2010 Ill recoup about 1/2 what i have lost in the last 2 mths !

forecast earning will be interestings please correct me but predictions were around 70c in 2009 growing to more than $1 in 2010

ASB Sec has quoted GCL forecast earnings as FY09 180c, FY10 280c

[macduffy]

ASB Sec has quoted GCL forecast earnings as FY09 180c, FY10 280c

Macquarie Equities have " adj EPS " at FY09 164.9c, FY10 307.1c, FY11 316c.

[shasta]

Macquarie Equities have " adj EPS " at FY09 164.9c, FY10 307.1c, FY11 316c.

Anyone else keeping tabs on GCL?

Over the last week or so, it's risen from $2.70 odd, to currently $3.84...

No anns, & i havent seen/heard of any take over talk :confused:

[macduffy]

Anyone else keeping tabs on GCL?

Over the last week or so, it's risen from $2.70 odd, to currently $3.84...

No anns, & i havent seen/heard of any take over talk :confused:

It may be just a correction of the "over-correction" in early November from a SP of around $5. A lot of negative talk around coal at that time with one of the biggies - was it MacArthur? - coming out with a profit downgrade. I think since then there has been a report confirming GCL's forecast profit for 2009.

[shasta]

It may be just a correction of the "over-correction" in early November from a SP of around $5. A lot of negative talk around coal at that time with one of the biggies - was it MacArthur? - coming out with a profit downgrade. I think since then there has been a report confirming GCL's forecast profit for 2009.

Silly me it's also "window dressing day" :D

[macduffy]

Silly me it's also "window dressing day" :D

Yes, it might well be just that!

Quite a few stocks that I follow are looking a bit better this last couple of weeks but plenty more could use some expert window dressing!

;)

[shasta]

Yes, it might well be just that!

Quite a few stocks that I follow are looking a bit better this last couple of weeks but plenty more could use some expert window dressing!

;)

Had a quick look thru my ASX watchlists, alot of green (especially with the stocks im following closely), so it has to be window dressing...:o

This wil be an interesting quarter to gauge the results when they come out later in January.

A sucker rally, or are things starting to turn around already?

[macduffy]

Found it!
GCL announcement of 19 December.

Profit for half year to 31 December expected to be a record.

:)

[shasta]

Found it!
GCL announcement of 19 December.

Profit for half year to 31 December expected to be a record.

:)

Thanks for that

I see 2 months ago we both posted forecast FY09 EPS, which were well up on actual FY08 results.

So this is nothing new, yet the market lagged by quite some distance?

This really is an irrational market these days!

[macduffy]

But confirmation of a profit level is good news in a market that keeps expecting ( and generally getting ) profit downgrades!

;)

[winner69]

Silly me it's also "window dressing day" :D


.... so do you think the curtains will be pulled back tomorrow to reveal all?

[Dr_Who]

Up on light volumes. Either it is window dressing or Commodities have start turning. Who is brave enough to test the waters?

[macduffy]

Up on light volumes. Either it is window dressing or Commodities have start turning. Who is brave enough to test the waters?

I wouldn't be trying to draw too many conclusions just yet. Pretty well all stocks are trading on light volumes at this time of the year and ASX indices have had a few reasonably good days lately.
I doubt that commodities are on the way back yet but buyers are starting to find some heavily over-sold stocks.
GCL may be one of them?

[Huang Chung]

Noble steps up to the plate....

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GCL&E=ASX&N=541790

Pitty we didn't stick with GCL, eh.....

[macduffy]

I'll be looking hard at selling on Monday.
Profits are hard to resist in this market!

;)

[macduffy]

Took my profit today.

This may develop into a takeover battle but I doubt it and " little fish are sweet " in this market.

:)