SPQR

[Lawso]

I'm not really as naive as this might sound but if I pose the question it might be fun to get posters' responses.

If I have a tidy sum in the bank, earning about 3.75%, but not enough to meet a substantial commitment coming due before the end of the year, what stock(s) should I buy in the hope of gaining at least 10%, preferably more, over the next six months or so? (I could handle a moderately high degree of risk.)

I might add that this would be quite the reverse of my normal approach to investing, which is basically Buy & Hold. But I'd welcome some suggestions.

[zyreon]

hmmmmmmmmmmmm

well, PPP/NOG intend to start making more noise again in mid July (see their last announcement)

So you could buy in now and sell to speculators when the drilling commences...

[bermuda]

Get stuck into NOG/PPP if you have some spare cash.You won't be disappointed.
Try TTP if you are patient as Chairman Don Fletcher more or less promised a share buy-back.At 38-39 cents there is no downside but plenty of room to go up especially as their NTA is well over 60 cents and climbing.
PVO are worth a punt with new offshore contracts contributing substantially...or so my learned colleagues say.At 66 cents might be a good entry level....
AWE(Australian Worldwide Exploration) will give you a tidy return as well.Only $A1.46 today.Good luck...and no liability!

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by zyreon

hmmmmmmmmmmmm

well, PPP/NOG intend to start making more noise again in mid July (see their last announcement)

So you could buy in now and sell to speculators when the drilling commences...


Gee Zyreon thats a bit risky mate, but I do acknowlege that there is potential there. I got a few myself a while back.

Even TEL wouldnt be a bad bet, at least the 7.5 cents imputed div comes along every quarter. Other than that its quite hard picking stocks in todays environment. Everything seems so fully priced.

If you want to keep things safe, many call accounts are offering 5% and you can also get 7%+ on some finance company deposits if thats the way you are inclined to go.

[clearasmud]

MCR-good story
PVO,CTL,- coming in to the pink
IHG-not to much downside,big upside
Ten,Tenpa,rbc -upside potetial fm corporate activity
WFD-still cheap but a bottem drawer
APX,APXWA-focus on onshore could be very lucrative when they hit the big one
AUO should play out a good story
Good time for Ausi investments at current exch which may last for 9-12 mths

[willy_wonker]

Buy some power stocks CEN, PWC, NGC, take your pick. The electricity sector is going through consolidation. Wont be surpirse if these puppies gets taken over anytime soon.

[Placebo]

So the question is, where can I be guaranteed to make 10% in 6 months.

If we all knew, we'd all be doing it, and not telling[}:)]

When you find out, let me know! A 20% PA guaranteed return would truly be the Holy Grail.

Derivatives?

[Cooper]

Tawana, ASX...

[thereslifeafter87]

ATR on the ASX...
If you are a FA - look at the fundamentals
If you are a TA - look at the chart. Both are great.

[$imon]

Firstly, stick half in a superbank a/c @ 6% (no fees or withdrawal restrictions) instead of your measley 3.75%.
Secondly, the rest in something that will make your stomach churn with it's ups n downs, like WDT, VTL, MSL or SOE
Wait till you get your 10% and get out quick, putting the gains back into the superbank a/c.

[Lawso]

Fantastic posts! Many thanks, guys & gals. And probably some more still to come. Maybe some other STs will enjoy and profit.

Come December, I'll check these out and see what/who did best.

[KJ]

Lawso-how about
(1)CAV ( 476 )well off its highs-has consolidated around this level for 6 mths-should have good F/Y result and will pay 2 divs prior to Xmas

(2)HBY (499)-should have good earnings growth for full yr-will pay high div.

(3)NPX (515)-has had a good run but PE still low-high div and good earnings growth.

(4)TWR (160)-who knows but worth a punt

(5)EBO (340)-should recover recent falls

[Lawnmower]

SPQR is name of a restaurant nereby, what does it stand for ?? (Presume latin)

PS: I would put into ROC on ASX, but need to follow drilling closely. If you didnt want exchange risk I'd go for IFT on NZX

[Onthemoney]

Very short-term I would be looking at 2 stocks Affco and Cadmus. Affco 6 months (Buy now). Cadmus 3-6 months (Buy know)..... See how you go.....

[maxine]

SPQR

= Senatus Populusque Romanus

= Senate and people of Rome

Also Ponsonby road joint that pulls its weight putting the Pons in Ponsonby. In their case I always thought it was a gay invocation of the strapping legionaires of old....but I don't know....

and why Lawso titles the thread SPQR....maybe we should run a competion and Lawso can declare the closest by COB today?

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

I'm not really as naive as this might sound but if I pose the question it might be fun to get posters' responses.

If I have a tidy sum in the bank, earning about 3.75%, but not enough to meet a substantial commitment coming due before the end of the year, what stock(s) should I buy in the hope of gaining at least 10%, preferably more, over the next six months or so? (I could handle a moderately high degree of risk.)

I might add that this would be quite the reverse of my normal approach to investing, which is basically Buy & Hold. But I'd welcome some suggestions.


Why don't you simply roll over the committment. There must be an asset involved in this that you can leverage ... or you can simply leverage the funds you have in the bank.

[David Renwick]

I win I reckon and biz hasn't even begun today.[8D]
I think SPQR may have been used orally to preface any public address to Romans, and Roman legions did everything (empire building etc)for and in the name of the Senate and populace (as shown on their battle standards.)
How'd I go you Latin scholars?

[Lawso]

Full marks, you Latin scholars. But also how about Small Profits, Quick Returns, which is more like what I had in mind.

[Oracle]

Lawso

MET

Little risk, should be good result, to June. Even though Phaedrus has just charted that it is going nowhere. PE has dropped... Out of synch with RYM. Should put on at least 10% within 2 months!

IMHO, your risk.

[zyreon]

high risk, potential high rewards:
CER
SEL
RMGOB

all of which I expect to be making noise which will decide whether they were pure risk or rewards ;)

[Lawso]

ENOUGH ALREADY!
That's 37 stocks to think about - 28 on NZX, 9 on ASX. The only stocks to get more than one vote are PPP, NOG, PVO and CTL (all 2 each).
I'm setting a cut-off date of 1.12.04 and will report the outcome soon after that.
Once again, many thanks to all.

[Oracle]

Too late. The MET at 2.25 just gone.

[zyreon]

I'm gunna set up a mock portfolio to track the result of all these recommendations, shall be interesting

.....

[edit]: Done, $3500 in total spread over 35 of the shares recommended, ($100 lots)

[belgarion]

CTL, SCT ;)

[zyreon]

With so many options available, just remember the age old frailty of the investor: "that his money burns a hole in his pocket"

>>the most dangerous time to invest is when you have a big wad of cash [which is a veritable truism for the thinking ape]

[Phaedrus]

The stocks selected here can arbitrarily categorised into 4 groups using TA.

[u]Clear uptrends</u>:-
IFT PPP TTP TEL WFD CEN PWC NGC NPX AFF

[u]Tracking sideways</u>:-
TEN VTL CAV HBY TWR EBO MET CER SEL

[u]Downtrends</u>:- CTL WDT

[u]Equivocal</u>:- PVO MSL RMG

It would be interesting to follow the overall performance of these groups, though I do not like the static "locked-in" nature of this type of comparison. Applying basic TA here, if any of the uptrending stocks weakened, they would be dropped, just as any of the trendless, downtrending or equivocal stocks might be bought if/when they break out.

One of the big advantages that the stockmarket has over TAB betting is that you can change your bet while the race is still being run. To commit yourself to specific stocks for a fixed period of time removes the chance to change your mind should your initial choices fail to perform. You have needlessly and pointlessly restricted your options.

[willy_wonker]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is Equivocal?

[Lawso]

With Belg's belated contribution (having a zzzz were you, Belg?], we've now got 38 stocks in the frame. CTL leads the way with the magnificent total of 3 votes.

[OutToLunch]

Equivocal - when everyone talks in the same tone of voice and no-one makes sense. Just go to any meeting to see it in action. ;)

[Lawso]

Note that CTL is in a downtrend, according to Phaedrus.
I take your points, Phaedrus, which are well made as always. And I like the analogy with the TAB. But in this thread I've posed a hypothetical situation, i.e. the need to make a reasonable capital gain within a defined time frame. And I haven't ruled out the possibility of some switching midstream.

WW: Equivocal? How about "haven't a clue".

[Phaedrus]

Equivocal :- Capable of varying interpretations, ambiguous.

[Gryffyn]

Equivocal - of double or doubtful meaning; of uncertain nature; questionable, dubious.

[Gryffyn]

Lawso - TWR gets my vote. My money is where my mouth is as I have a substantial TWR holding already and will continue to hold throughout your timeframe. It's been in the 170's before the good news of the last report so if things stay on track (likely) then I'd expect you'll get your 10% in the next 6 months with cap gain.

Disc TWR.

[willy_wonker]

Thanks guys.
Engish was not my strong subject at school. :D

[Lawso]

Noted, Gryf. That makes two votes for TWR and also PPP, NOG and PVO and three for CTL. The spread of choices is amazing in such a small market as ours. And little or no support for leaders like TEL (1 vote), CEN (1), CAH (0), WHS (0), AIA (0), the F&Ps (0) - no doubt regarded by most as fully priced - though personally I still fancy CEN.


quote: Engish was not my strong subject at school.
Spelling not so sh--hot either, eh Willy? :D

[Lawso]

Remember this thread? Back in June I asked for suggestions about what stocks would show me at least a 10% capital gain in 6 months, from mid-June to mid-December.

Well, so far it's not proving very difficult in this strong market. 29 NZX and 9 ASX stocks were nominated and of these 14 NZers and 3 Austs are showing a 10% or better gain. (Someone nominated Aust Pac Energy - APX - but the ASX website tells me there's no such name or code.)

The best performers - above 20% - are:
NZ
Affco 55.17% 29 &gt; 45
Cadmus 50% 10 &gt; 15
Tower 40% 160 &gt; 224
Wakefield 31.9% 235 &gt; 310
NZOG 23.07% 65 &gt; 80
Ebos 22.35% 340 &gt; 416
Hellaby 21.8% 499 &gt; 608

Aust
Aust WW Expl'n 33.1% 145 &gt; 193
Roc Oil 30.7% 153 &gt; 200
Aust Coal 24.19% 62 &gt; 77

E & O E !

[Lawso]

Congratulations, onthemoney. The only one who picked AFF. Did you buy some, otm?

[PLYNCH]

As time is short I think you better "invest" your money in SKC and I dont mean the stock ha ha.
See you at the SPE agm Lawso.

[Lawso]

Help Wanted:

I've been reviewing progress, prior to the 1.12.04 cut-off date, with the various stocks nominated here. I see two problems.

1. clearasmud suggested APX (Aust Pac Energy), then priced @ 300 and APXWA, 96, but now it's not showing up on the asx website nor on the ST ASX forum. Has it been taken over, gone bust or what?

2. tla87 nominated Astron (ATR) and I've recorded the price on 17.6.04 as 490, meaning I could buy 204 shares with my nominal $1000. This is nonsense, isn't it? The ATR chart on the asx website shows a maximum price last June of around 330. Did I transpose the figures and theoretically "bought" 490 shares @ 204. Can someone please tell me what the ATR price was on 16.6.04.

ATR and APX are not stocks I follow so I hope someone can correct my stuff-ups.

So far, of the stocks nominated, NOG looks like the front runner with a gain of 80% (65 &gt; 117) followed by CTL 52% and WFD 45%. The 100% loser is RMG options - then priced at 0.3, now worthless.

[stui]

APX is NZX not ASX

[Lawso]

Thanks, stui, and well done, clearasmud. APXWA is up 160%!! (96 &gt; 250) since June and APX up 48% (300 &gt; 445). I note the gains over the whole year are even more spectacular.

[PLYNCH]

Hi Lawso ATR has split it`s shares 1 into 2. Last sale was $3.27

[Lawso]

Thanx, PL

[Lawso]

You may recall that in June I asked for suggestions about what to buy if I wanted to grow some funds as much as possible to meet an upcoming financial commitment in December. STers recommended 38 different stocks, 31 in NZ and 7 in Oz.

The surprise (to me, anyway) winner is APX warrants, up 123.8% in 5 1/2 months. The head shares also did pretty well. Other stars are CTL (+70%), NOG (69.2%) and WFD (48.7%).

To simplify, I've worked on a notional investment of $1000 (NZD & AUD) and made the cut-off at close of play yesterday. The gains are on price only, dividends not counted. (What do you take me for? Einstein?). TEL, for example, has dipped a few cents after going ex div on Monday.

The Astron s p in mid-June is only approximate and is based on an ASX chart. The SEL result is adjusted for the recent 1:16.4551 consolidation. But I think there was also a 1:10 bonus issue so that's all getting a bit beyond me!

So here goes - E & OE

NZX
$1000 price @17.6.04 No. bought @30.11.04 $ %+/-

AFF Affco 29 3448 40 1379 +37.9
APX Aust Pac Energy 300 333 425 1415 +41.5
APXWA “ “ warrants 96 1041 215 2238 +123.8
CAV Cavalier 476 210 462 970 -3
CEN Contact 587 170 632 1074 +10.7
CER Certif. Orgs 11.9 8403 7 588 -41.2
CTL Cadmus 10 10,000 17 1700 +70
EBO Ebos 340 294 420 1235 +23.5
HBY Hellaby 499 200 633 1266 +26.6
IFT Infratil 291 343 355 1218 +21.8
MET Metlifecare 225 444 270 1199 +19.9
MSL Mooring Sys 345 289 390 1127 +12.7
NGC NGC Holdings 269 371 311 1154 +15.4
NOG NZ Oil & Gas 65 1538 110 1692 +69.2
NPX Nuplex 515 194 545 1057 +5.7
PPP Pan Pac Petrol 14.5 6896 15.3 1055 +5.5
PVO Provenco 66 1515 80 1212 +21.2
PWC Powerco 207 483 212 1024 +2.4
RBC Rubicon 86 1162 106 1232 +23.2
RMGOB RMG options 0.3 333,333 ---- ----- -100
SCT Scott Tech 330 303 328 994 -6
SEL Selector Grp* 2 50,000 25 759 -24.1*
SOE Software o Ex 145 689 144 992 -7
TEL Telecom 565 176 604 1063 +6.3
TEN Tenon 194 515 215 1107 +10.7
TENPA Tenon pref 193 518 215 1114 +11.4
TTP TransTas Prop 38 2631 40 1052 +5.2
TWR Tower 160 625 215 1344 +34.4
VTL VTL Group 110 909 94 854 -14.6
WDT Wgtn Drive 56 1785 46 821 -17.9
WFD Wakefield 235 425 350 1487 +48.7

ASX
ATR Astron 300?? 333 336 1119 +11.9
AUO Aust. Coal 62 1612 80 1290 +29
AWE Aust WW Expl’n 145 689 195 1344 +34.4
IHG Intell’l Holdgs 8.7 11,494 3.9 448 -55.2
MCR Mincor Res. 67 1492 64 955 -4.5
ROC Roc Oil 153 653 183 1195 +19.5
TAW Tawana Res. 145 689 150 1033 +3.3

[Lawso]

Sorry about the tabulation, or lack of it. I don't know how to fix it.

[Gryffyn]

Lawso - was it all just testing a theory or did you apply any of it?

[Lawso]

No, mainly for fun. I do have to pay out a fat lot of money this month but can cover it by reducing and taking profits from some of my best performers like WPT, FBU and CEN (having already cashed out of WHS). I'm past the stage where I would gamble short-term on the likes of CTL (up 70% in the period), or CER (down 41.2%). Fortunately I didn't buy $100k worth of RMG options ;)