Best 3 Oil/Gas Juniors to accumulate in 2009

[Jess9]

As of today, what are the best oil/gas juniors to accumulate in anticipation of oil price taking off, late 2009?

I guess each junior needs to be considered with the following in mind:

+ Management quality,
+ Level of Senior Management/Board ownership
+ Current cash position and planned forward works,
+ Permit quality/potential
+ Shares on issue as well as options
+ JV interest and t/o likelihood.

Some that I need to look at further or re-assess by quarter 2 2009 are:

OIL GAS/OIL

TEX BOW
CUE VPE
ITC

So... what are your top 3 and why???

[ELYOB]

HZN CUE BPT ERH CVN ...all are producers / explorers as of mid jan09 . You need to be in them now , 2009 will be tooooo late . Oil is going up in Jan09 onwards ; waiting till Q2 or Q4 to be in oilers is missing the patch play. ....dyor , if not prepared to take risks , stay away ...

[Jess9]

IMO 1st quarter may be a good buying window. Time will tell and not long to wait ; ) Thanks for your picks, will look at more closely.

[JBmurc]

PSA STX 100% growth min early 09 oversold to hell US nat gas now at $6.14 these two have good production an good areas to explore.

ROC -which has also looks cheap in the oil sector

[ronthepom]

IMO 1st quarter may be a good buying window. Time will tell and not long to wait ; ) Thanks for your picks, will look at more closely.

IMO--bul , icn , vpe.

[arjay]

QPN has to be in there, especially given the currently 1c SP. They have started commercial production of oil in Louisianna and gas in California. With additional low risk oil now being drilled in the East and some major blue-sky prospects in the West, 2009 is looking good for QPN. Management looks OK too.

[shasta]

As of today, what are the best oil/gas juniors to accumulate in anticipation of oil price taking off, late 2009?

I guess each junior needs to be considered with the following in mind:

+ Management quality,
+ Level of Senior Management/Board ownership
+ Current cash position and planned forward works,
+ Permit quality/potential
+ Shares on issue as well as options
+ JV interest and t/o likelihood.

Some that I need to look at further or re-assess by quarter 2 2009 are:

OIL GAS/OIL

TEX BOW
CUE VPE
ITC

So... what are your top 3 and why???

Jess9

I'd have look further into the following:

1. PSA - US based primary Gas producer, undervalued & top notch Mgmt (Have held PSA previously), the US winter should result in higher gas prices & PSA has an interesting exploration target in China.

2. OEL - Phillipines based Oil operations, Turkey based Gas operations, & once they get sorted will generate good cashflows to finance there exciting exploration targets in Italy, Argentina & the Phillipines. (Again i have held them in the past)

3. OEX - Has some beefy valuations on them well in excess of current SP.
Production is imminent, if not already. Plenty of exciting exploration targets (Have not held before)

If you are looking for slightly bigger targets don't discount ROC, BPT or OSH (Havent held any of these before).

I've avoided primary CSG plays as there's plenty of threads with discussion on them, although BPT does have 40% of the Tipton West CSG (with AOE)

[Shrewd Crude]

heres 3...

NZO...
still the most undervalued oil and gas company on the NZX...
2009, Kupe, Pike, Tui expansion on the cards...
dirt cheap....so cheap its embarrassing...
a bagger to be made with lowish downside risk.....
as we have seen, when this one runs it can run hard and become overvalued quickly... NZ investors chase this stock with little knowledge about this industry... its gone sideways for 5 years as the market valued the stock at production even though the projects are only now coming through (bar tui)...

CUE...
assets diversified in every stage...
exploration targets 09... zeus, spikey,

appraisal 09, Manaia, bariweka (late 09 hopefully) low risk, very high chance success... Cobra....

development 09, Maari, Oyong gas, Wortel Gas... comercialisation path of Cash maple... development of PNG assets down the line...

production 09, Oyong Oil, SE Gobe,
Maari profitable at $40 US (first oil Feb)...Im expecting oil to remain around $40US, with downside volatility short term only...

production stage makes up the whole value of the company, and the rest is thrown in for free...

CVN
big daddy ohh popa production...
great drilling results... cheap wells to complete...
exceptional flow rates...

I agree with other posters here about their picks...
thanks arjay, I will have alook at QPN...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, Something you should have pickrd up in 2008 is the value of a stop loss plus market sentiment, against fundamental analysis. You lost out by being to far in the fundamentalist camp in 2008 like most if not all investors in that camp. You still look like you are to much into the one and one makes two camp when sometimes logic flies out the window. You should copy PHAEDRUS and forget SNOOPY if you are going to make money in this completely irrational market. Long term traders are all in the red right now so get with it man dont copy them study the market first the company second. Happy new year mate and all the best next year . Macdunk

[Shrewd Crude]

SHREWDY, Something you should have pickrd up in 2008 is the value of a stop loss plus market sentiment, against fundamental analysis. You lost out by being to far in the fundamentalist camp in 2008 like most if not all investors in that camp. You still look like you are to much into the one and one makes two camp when sometimes logic flies out the window. You should copy PHAEDRUS and forget SNOOPY if you are going to make money in this completely irrational market. Long term traders are all in the red right now so get with it man dont copy them study the market first the company second. Happy new year mate and all the best next year . Macdunk

mackdunk,
Had I listened to you I would have been bankrupted in housing which would have fallen 20k minimum in value, and I would have lost on high fixed term interest rates which you were insistant on to the death, and still are...
The large paper loss in a house is very real... you told me "it is never a better time to buy a house than right now", at the very very top of the housing market....
Fixed term loan may have cost me 20k to get out of, or sit through higher interest charges...

you have lost like we have in 2008... you sold your shares, but you locked in higher interest rates, which have supported bank balance sheets...
fixed termers have lost out, even if they sold all their shares, they have just transferred their losses....

I am nothing like snoopy...

happy new year mackdunk, all the best for next year dude...

lets get back to oil stocks eah...
:cool:

[croesus]

Is anyone apart from Arjay following QPN... have read their latest 6 months of announcements............but if anybody can point me at any research/analytical stuff that would be greatly appreciated

Seems to have potential.. ???

Regards Croesus.

[pago]

Is anyone apart from Arjay following QPN... have read their latest 6 months of announcements............but if anybody can point me at any research/analytical stuff that would be greatly appreciated

Seems to have potential.. ???

Regards Croesus.

hi croesus,if qpn is the old nuenco i would be cautious.neo burnt many investors years ago with unmet promises.the ceo then,i believe he has gone,was in the p thomas of ady style of management.i cant comment on current management.cheers pago

[arjay]

hi croesus,if qpn is the old nuenco i would be cautious.neo burnt many investors years ago with unmet promises.the ceo then,i believe he has gone,was in the p thomas of ady style of management.i cant comment on current management.cheers pago

Hi Pago,
Yep, QPN is the new name for NEO. It's true that Anthony Kane (old CEO) oversaw a 95% decline in SP over a relatively short period before leaving. I pointed this out to Mark Freeman (part of the new management team) when they were looking to bump up director rewards last year. It's also true that the SP took a hit after shareholders voted to increase directors rewards and is now at 1c. However, to me this all adds the current attraction of QPN. They have a new and proactive management team, income just started from a gas project come on stream in California (more to come), and an oil discovery in Louisianna now on stream with decent expectations from local drilling now undeway. On top there is a lot of oil potential in two other areas of California curretnly beign evaluated. A big downer of NEO was their intertia in getting projects underway, but they seem to have got a lot better lately.

I believe Bermuda still follows this one, and maybe also Gregorious if he is still about.

disc: still accumulating.

[croesus]

Thanks Arjay.

Will do more reading... do you have any concern about their level of debt ?
Even taking into account their share of current oil and gas being processed.. it seems after running costs, Directors fees, funding costs .. etc.. they are cash flow negative... or have I done the Math wrong.?

Regards Croesus

[JBmurc]

PSA STX 100% growth min early 09 oversold to hell US nat gas now at $6.14 these two have good production an good areas to explore.

ROC -which has also looks cheap in the oil sector

40%+ gain if you had brough PSA,STX 9days ago not a bad return on your hard earned if sold at their highs today

[arjay]

Thanks Arjay.

Will do more reading... do you have any concern about their level of debt ?
Even taking into account their share of current oil and gas being processed.. it seems after running costs, Directors fees, funding costs .. etc.. they are cash flow negative... or have I done the Math wrong.?

Regards Croesus

Hi Croesus,
I suspect they are still cash-flow negative (maybe someone else can comment?). However, with projected income from the Jack-Hammar 3-13 well estimated at $US19,000/mo and on top of this QPN's 5% share of the 700 or so barrels/day coming out of Jumonville 1 ($US50,000/mo) they must be starting to get a reasonable income in to offset costs. Given the high probability of Acosta (and maybe Jumonville 2) adding to the oil reserves, as well as other Jack Hammar wells being plugged into the pipeline, we might have a nice we earner in this company.

Up 40% today!

[croesus]

thanks for that Arjay.

Have spent some time reading today... concur with your comments... and to attempt to put my toe (s) in the water .. have a order in for 100k at 1.3... but wont be chasing them above that....have found another company of interest... which will post on later..

cheers. C.

[arjay]

Croesus,
Your earlier question has been answered in the latest QPN quarterly. The Co. is now cash-flow positive with about $20K nett/month coming in from two projects and half a million in the bank. Things are looking up IMO.