Under Valued Oilers - Cat 1 - Cash Cows with Oil

[tricha]

The purpose of this exercise is to find safe value in the market, for 2009 in the oil sector. Disclosure - hold PPP and COE


Critera for Category #1

- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)

I am going to start the WELL rolling with what I think is the top 5, please edify me on any mistakes and\or add missing information., there will be plenty and also put forward your own list and ranking if u care to. Then we shall do some polling.

1 - PPP ( Pan Pacific Petroleum) 28.5 cents

1.1 - 25 cents a share in the bank,
1.2 - 3.1 million barrels of oil in the ground.
1.3 - 1
1.4 - 1

2 - COE (Cooper Energy) 26.5 cents

1.1 30 cents a share in the bank,
own 25% of IPM
1.2 1.1 million barrels of oil.
1.3 2
1.4 2

3 - NZO ( NZ Oil and Gas ) $1.02

1.1 50 cents a share in the bank.
own 33% of Pike River
own 15% PPP
1.2 3.87 million barrels of Tui Oil.
1.3 1
1.4 1

4 - AWE (Australian Worldwide) $2.55

1.1 $1.00 a share in the bank.
1.2 62 million of 2p reserves
1.3 1
1.4 1

5 - OSH ( Oil Search ) $4.58

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4 3

6. EXR (Elixir) 4 cents, 189 million shares. ( Kent Brockman )

1.1 6.8 cents/share in the bank (there may be a liability in regard to an unpaid bill by a JV partner though)
1.2 Oil/Gas production from High Island field in GOM
1.3 1
1.4 6

7. BPT - Beach Petroleum 93.5c (Shasta)

1.1 - Net Cash/(Debt) position as @ 30/9/08 - ~$A150m
1.2 - FY08 revenues > $A500m, operating cashflows ~ $A200m (2P reserves 145 mmbo)
1.3 - 2, as all producing fields in Australia, exploration targets overseas though...
1.4 - 5, i'll list the reasons why...

- Divestment of BMG to reduce debt (Good)
- Hedging (Bad)
- Diversity Oil/Gas/CSG + Emission friendly investments, Mgmt on the ball (Good)
- SP performance & placements at discount to market value (Bad)

[KentBrockman]

The purpose of this exercise is to find safe value in the market, for 2009 in the oil sector.


Critera for Category #1

- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)

I am going to start the WELL rolling with what I think is the top 5, please edify me on any mistakes and\or add missing information., there will be plenty and also put forward your own list and ranking if u care to. Then we shall do some polling.

1 - PPP ( Pan Pacific Petroleum) 28.5 cents

1.1 - 25 cents a share in the bank,
1.2 - 3.1 million barrels of oil in the ground.
1.3 - 1
1.4 - 1

2 - COE (Cooper Energy) 26.5 cents

1.1 30 cents a share in the bank,
own 25% of IPM
1.2 1.1 million barrels of oil.
1.3 2
1.4 2

3 - NZO ( NZ Oil and Gas ) $1.02

1.1 50 cents a share in the bank.
own 33% of Pike River
own 15% PPP
1.2 3.87 million barrels of Tui Oil.
1.3 1
1.4 1

4 - AWE (Australian Worldwide) $2.55

1.1 $1.00 a share in the bank.
1.2 62 million of 2p reserves
1.3 1
1.4 1

5 - OSH ( Oil Search ) $4.58

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4 3

Disclosure - Hold PPP and COE.

The 1 for good management has yet to be earned by PPP. So far they have done little
(which may or may not be considered 'good management' in the current environment.)
If they get 60c+ from NZO I'll consider it good :)

But the 2 for Cooper I think is completely unwarranted. The attempt to buy IPM was
particularly pathetic (and NZO better study that carefully, as it's a text book example
on how to screw up a takeover (via a stingy offer))

Anyway:

6. EXR (Elixir) 4 cents

1.1 5-6 cents/share in the bank (there may be a liability in regard to an unpaid bill by a JV partner though)
1.2 Oil/Gas production from High Island field in GOM
1.3 1
1.4 6

[Shrewd Crude]

Kent,
PPP management have handled this situation very impressively...
the lack of inactivity when such acquisitions have presented themselves has been the wild card which turned out to be the good move...

PPP also made impressive foreign exchange gains... Unlike NZO which did not...

I think those of us realised just how special PPP management were, was when they gave a recent presentation, and at the end they said they were looking to buy assets for cents in a dollar...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

7. BPT - Beach Petroleum 93.5c

1.1 - Net Cash/(Debt) position as @ 30/9/08 - ~$A150m
1.2 - FY08 revenues > $A500m, operating cashflows ~ $A200m (2P reserves 145 mmbo)
1.3 - 2, as all producing fields in Australia, exploration targets overseas though...
1.4 - 5, i'll list the reasons why...

- Divestment of BMG to reduce debt (Good)
- Hedging (Bad)
- Diversity Oil/Gas/CSG + Emission friendly investments, Mgmt on the ball (Good)
- SP performance & placements at discount to market value (Bad)

[Dr_Who]

I think BPT sold their hedging at the top of the market. Their oil is unhedged and moves with the oil price. I am keeping an eye on BPT also.

[shasta]

I think BPT sold their hedging at the top of the market. Their oil is unhedged and moves with the oil price. I am keeping an eye on BPT also.

They still have hedges (approx 60% of production) in the $60 - 80 range, which is why they have a marked to market gain so far for FY09 of $103m (FY08 a loss of $119m).

They missed out on much higher prices in 2007/08 by having them in the first place!

[tricha]

The 1 for good management has yet to be earned by PPP. So far they have done little
(which may or may not be considered 'good management' in the current environment.)
If they get 60c+ from NZO I'll consider it good :)

I settle on Shrewds response, in a market and thats what this thread is about, cash is King

But the 2 for Cooper I think is completely unwarranted. The attempt to buy IPM was
particularly pathetic (and NZO better study that carefully, as it's a text book example
on how to screw up a takeover (via a stingy offer))

A question Kent, in a bear market where most stocks got thrashed, down 50% on average, was $1 a top price in this market.

The other thing to consider is - how much is COE's 25% worth ???? Is it value for money.

Anyway:

6. EXR (Elixir) 4 cents

1.1 5-6 cents/share in the bank (there may be a liability in regard to an unpaid bill by a JV partner though)
1.2 Oil/Gas production from High Island field in GOM
1.3 1
1.4 6

A very good pick Kent, 189 million shares, cash at the end of the last quarter = 13 million gives my calculator 6.8 cents a share in the bank.
It's on the list.

Thanks guys, BPT will have to wait till tomorrow. hey Shasta, please save me some homework, how many shares on issue and cash backing per share.

[KentBrockman]

A very good pick Kent, 189 million shares, cash at the end of the last quarter = 13 million gives my calculator 6.8 cents a share in the bank.
It's on the list.

Thanks guys, BPT will have to wait till tomorrow. hey Shasta, please save me some homework, how many shares on issue and cash backing per share.

Yes, it does look good on paper, but watch out how this is going to be resolved:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=EXR&E=ASX&N=432986

[tricha]

Yes, it does look good on paper, but watch out how this is going to be resolved:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=EXR&E=ASX&N=432986

Wow, good on paper, how about a 25% return today, dam and I missed the boat.


5
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 1 25%
6:59 pm

[tricha]

Lets see how good you guys are on this subject, there are a few blanks to be filled in , AWE and OSH especially.
I personally hold PPP and COE, but change is coming. Thats my project to start 2009, holding 2 - 3 cash cows with income that fall into Cat 1 . Cat 2 to follow. :)


The purpose of this exercise is to find safe value in the market, for 2009 in the oil sector. Disclosure - hold PPP and COE


Critera for Category #1

- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)

I am going to start the WELL rolling with what I think is the top 5, please edify me on any mistakes and\or add missing information., there will be plenty and also put forward your own list and ranking if u care to. Then we shall do some polling.

1 - PPP ( Pan Pacific Petroleum) 28.5 cents

1.1 - 25 cents a share in the bank,
1.2 - 3.1 million barrels of oil in the ground.
1.3 - 1
1.4 - 1

2 - COE (Cooper Energy) 26.5 cents

1.1 30 cents a share in the bank,
own 25% of IPM
1.2 1.1 million barrels of oil.
1.3 2
1.4 2

3 - NZO ( NZ Oil and Gas ) $1.02

1.1 50 cents a share in the bank.
own 33% of Pike River
own 15% PPP
1.2 3.87 million barrels of Tui Oil.
1.3 1
1.4 1

4 - AWE (Australian Worldwide) $2.55

1.1 $1.00 a share in the bank.
1.2 62 million of 2p reserves
1.3 1
1.4 1

5 - OSH ( Oil Search ) $4.58

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4 3

6. EXR (Elixir) 4 cents, 189 million shares. ( Kent Brockman )

1.1 6.8 cents/share in the bank (there may be a liability in regard to an unpaid bill by a JV partner though)
1.2 Oil/Gas production from High Island field in GOM
1.3 1
1.4 6

7. BPT - Beach Petroleum 93.5c (Shasta)

1.1 - Net Cash/(Debt) position as @ 30/9/08 - ~$A150m
1.2 - FY08 revenues > $A500m, operating cashflows ~ $A200m (2P reserves 145 mmbo)
1.3 - 2, as all producing fields in Australia, exploration targets overseas though...
1.4 - 5, i'll list the reasons why...

- Divestment of BMG to reduce debt (Good)
- Hedging (Bad)
- Diversity Oil/Gas/CSG + Emission friendly investments, Mgmt on the ball (Good)
- SP performance & placements at discount to market value (Bad)

[bermuda]

I voted for NZO. Plenty of value to come and they will take over PPP and inherit their fortune.

But the real Gem is TEX which is not on the list.

[AMR]

I would have voted for CVN if it were there. But waking up everyday worrying about whether protesters have taken over your investment is a bit stressful.

[bermuda]

I would have voted for CVN if it were there. But waking up everyday worrying about whether protesters have taken over your investment is a bit stressful.

AMR,
I agree CVN is a standout but I made it a policy never to invest again in countries with foreign risk. I have been burnt before. I think CVN will be OK but it aint worth the worry when there are safer bets around.

[tricha]

AMR,
I agree CVN is a standout but I made it a policy never to invest again in countries with foreign risk. I have been burnt before. I think CVN will be OK but it aint worth the worry when there are safer bets around.

Cat 1 is about very low risk companies, ones that u can sleep on and wake up with a smile :)

We will get to the Cat 2 + 3 later, If u think there are other Cat1 companies out there we can certainly add them to the list, if they meet the critera.
CVN would fall into Cat 2, TEX I know nothing about it.

Happy hunting.

[bermuda]

Cat 1 is about very low risk companies, ones that u can sleep on and wake up with a smile :)

We will get to the Cat 2 + 3 later, If u think there are other Cat1 companies out there we can certainly add them to the list, if they meet the critera.
CVN would fall into Cat 2, TEX I know nothing about it.

Happy hunting.

Happy New Year Tricha,

You really need to get to know TEX. Get in now. You can double your money in the next 2 months. I wont be selling mine until after the drilling of Catapult. But if you want to sell before the drill, it is money for jam. If you want to stay in, it could change your life. As you know the drill bit does the talking.

Re CVN, this is a great stock. But you could wake up one morning and find the tax take had been raised 50%. Not for me, I like it simple.

[joey]

I voted for NZO. Plenty of value to come and they will take over PPP and inherit their fortune.

But the real Gem is TEX which is not on the list.


Bermuda
I would love to know the amount of money you get for the service you give NZO? You are one of NZO's greatest supporter. TR etc must love having an obediant emploee/contractor like you!



joey

[bermuda]

Bermuda
I would love to know the amount of money you get for the service you give NZO? You are one of NZO's greatest supporter. TR etc must love having an obediant emploee/contractor like you!



joey

Joey,
I have had a few years in oil and gas and I just call it as I see it. As Gary Player always said " The more I practice the luckier I get".

Wouldn't mind a retainer though! I sold up 20 average NZ stocks and put the lot on NZO at 26 cents. Changed my life......for the better.

As I said, I just call it as I see it. NZO is a great stock and they will be that much better owning all of PPP.

Still own a few.

[tricha]

Happy New Year Tricha,

You really need to get to know TEX. Get in now. You can double your money in the next 2 months. I wont be selling mine until after the drilling of Catapult. But if you want to sell before the drill, it is money for jam. If you want to stay in, it could change your life. As you know the drill bit does the talking.

Re CVN, this is a great stock. But you could wake up one morning and find the tax take had been raised 50%. Not for me, I like it simple.

Hi Bermuda

Happy New year to you to Bermuda and may TEX go off like a rocket. I'm being a bit more conservative this year. Just when the market appears to come good, slam dunk.
And yes I bought back into NZO today, I sort of expect another dividend shortly.

Bloody oilers, there are too dam many of them. Looks like either no one likes AWE or OSH, or like me do not understand them enough.
More study coming up :(

[Shrewd Crude]

Tricha,
I really like OSH but its going to take a good few years for it to really take off...
OSH will some day be $20 per share...


ok... I will add CUE to the list...


- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
Last year in the quarterlies CUE was just above breakeven on its net operating cashflows and oil has fallen further.. right now could be looking cashflow negative for the very short term... its strong cashflows from Oyong oil, and SE gobe have been around 15 million dollars per quarter... these revenues have been chomped up by large cap expenditure requirements to get other projects off the ground...eg Maari development costs, Oyong gas and wortel gas costs,

- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
about to hit first Maari production in hopefully a few weeks...
Oyong oil is in decline...

- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
NZ-1, Australia-1, PNG 5, Indonesia-8...
overall soverign risk 3 id say...
anyway, CUE wrote down its Indonesia assets in 2007 with a 27million dollar loss...

- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
3... managment very capable and experienced, and in good hands with superior JV partners, array of contacts... Company generally quiet about what it has...
Not a great deal of info floating around on the company...
:cool:
.^sc

[Sehnsucht888]

Shrewd - how come you haven't included TEX in the poll? It is up 55% so far this year on reasonable volume. Certainly not the market capital of PPP, but in a similar position from what I can tell, cash full, and making more daily. It has retraced much more than PPP too, seemingly from general market sentiment so has more % growth potential I would think, especially with the PPP take over talk of premiums of only 100% to 200% from current price.

[ELYOB]

Watch BPT with Tipton West .....also the restructure in finances as the beach is in great shape . Quarterly time will tell all ! 2 weeks time .

[tricha]

Shrewd - CUE will most likely be a Cat 2, u can not quite sleep soundly on it, it will move to a Cat 1 when Maari is doing the business. I'll explain later.


Tricha,
I really like OSH but its going to take a good few years for it to really take off...
OSH will some day be $20 per share...


ok... I will add CUE to the list...


- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
Last year in the quarterlies CUE was just above breakeven on its net operating cashflows and oil has fallen further.. right now could be looking cashflow negative for the very short term... its strong cashflows from Oyong oil, and SE gobe have been around 15 million dollars per quarter... these revenues have been chomped up by large cap expenditure requirements to get other projects off the ground...eg Maari development costs, Oyong gas and wortel gas costs,

- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
about to hit first Maari production in hopefully a few weeks...
Oyong oil is in decline...

- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
NZ-1, Australia-1, PNG 5, Indonesia-8...
overall soverign risk 3 id say...
anyway, CUE wrote down its Indonesia assets in 2007 with a 27million dollar loss...

- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
3... managment very capable and experienced, and in good hands with superior JV partners, array of contacts... Company generally quiet about what it has...
Not a great deal of info floating around on the company...
:cool:
.^sc

[Shrewd Crude]

I understand tricha...
I sleep well and always have...
OMV are not to be joked at...
no problems coming from what ive read...
peace...
:cool:
.^sc

[Oiler]

I understand tricha...
I sleep well and always have...
OMV are not to be joked at...
no problems coming from what ive read...
peace...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy you have it right ...... OMV are shrewd and professional operators.

We are about to hit the "sweet spot" so lets hope the current market will understand the result :rolleyes:

Oiler

[tricha]

Originally Posted by tricha http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=238565#post238565)
The purpose of this exercise is to find safe value in the market, for 2009 in the oil sector. Disclosure - hold PPP and COE


Critera for Category #1

- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)

I am going to start the WELL rolling with what I think is the top 5, please edify me on any mistakes and\or add missing information., there will be plenty and also put forward your own list and ranking if u care to. Then we shall do some polling.

1 - PPP ( Pan Pacific Petroleum) 28.5 cents, 588.6 million shares, no debt and hedging at a +, value ?

1.1 - 25 cents a share in the bank,
1.2 - 3.1 million barrels of oil in the ground.
1.3 - 1
1.4 - 1

2 - COE (Cooper Energy) 26.5 cents, 252.2 million shares.

1.1 30 cents a share equilavent in the bank\ including
own 25% of IPM
1.2 1.1 million barrels of oil.
1.3 2
1.4 2

3 - NZO ( NZ Oil and Gas ) $1.02, 387.3 million shares, no debt and no hedging ?

1.1 50 cents a share in the bank.
own 33% of Pike River
own 15% PPP
1.2 3.87 million barrels of Tui Oil + Marri.
1.3 1
1.4 1

4 - AWE (Australian Worldwide) $2.55, 520 million shares, no debt and no hedging.

1.1 71 cents a share in the bank at end of last quarter
1.2 69 million of 2p reserves
1.3 1
1.4 1

5 - OSH ( Oil Search ) $4.58, around 1120 million shares, no debt and no hedging,

1.1 49 cents a share in the bank
1.2 500 mmboe 2p or equivalent.
1.3 1
1.4 1

6. EXR (Elixir) 4 cents, 189 million shares. ( Kent Brockman )

1.1 6.8 cents/share in the bank (there may be a liability in regard to an unpaid bill by a JV partner though)
1.2 Oil/Gas production from High Island field in GOM
1.3 1
1.4 6

7. BPT - Beach Petroleum 93.5c, 1030 million shares, debt of ? million and no hedging.

1.1 - 10.5 cents a share in the bank, Net Cash/(Debt) position as @ 30/9/08 - ~$A108.8 million
1.2 - 2P reserves 145 mmbo
1.3 - 1
1.4 - 1
Shasta - Divestment of BMG to reduce debt (Good)
- Hedging (Bad)
- Diversity Oil/Gas/CSG + Emission friendly investments, Mgmt on the ball (Good)
- SP performance & placements at discount to market value (Bad)

[shasta]

Tricha

Beach has 1.03b shares on issue (excl 2010 options, another 102m)

Actual cash held @ 30/9/08 = $A324.5m (or 31.5c* per share)

Net Cash/(Debt) @ 30/9/08 = $A108.8m (or 10.5c* per share)

* Using actual shares on issue & ignoring options

[Shrewd Crude]

Sehnsucht888-Shrewd - how come you haven't included TEX in the poll?


hey sehnsucht...
tricha wants perfect looking stocks so he can sleep easy at night...
;)... I guess that has nothing to do with share price performance...

His criteria is cashflow positive, and oil producing on scale...
this is a great strategy....

Im afraid TEX is not cash flow positive, and CUE is still weeks off first oil from Maari, but it does have existing oil flows...

thats ok, we just have different criteria at this stage...
I got into TEXO for a punt on Catapult, and its been delayed like a savage just like everything else......
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Tricha

Beach has 1.03b shares on issue (excl 2010 options, another 102m)

Actual cash held @ 30/9/08 = $A324.5m (or 31.5c* per share)

Net Cash/(Debt) @ 30/9/08 = $A108.8m (or 10.5c* per share)

* Using actual shares on issue & ignoring options

Cheers Shasta :)

[tricha]

hey sehnsucht...
tricha wants perfect looking stocks so he can sleep easy at night...
;)... I guess that has nothing to do with share price performance...

His criteria is cashflow positive, and oil producing on scale...
this is a great strategy....

Im afraid TEX is not cash flow positive, and CUE is still weeks off first oil from Maari, but it does have existing oil flows...

thats ok, we just have different criteria at this stage...
I got into TEXO for a punt on Catapult, and its been delayed like a savage just like everything else......
:cool:
.^sc

U R onto it Shrewd, If I get the time hopefully I can go a cat 2 top 10 ( higher risk naturally associated with much higher gain ), with the likes of CUE, TEX, CVN, PSA etc. Probably more like a top 20.

I have not made my pick here yet as I am working on some sort of formula and I am not very good at it.
I would hazard a guess if we all came up with a formula, they would be miles apart.

Happy hunting :)

[Sehnsucht888]

hey sehnsucht...
tricha wants perfect looking stocks so he can sleep easy at night...
;)... I guess that has nothing to do with share price performance...

His criteria is cashflow positive, and oil producing on scale...
this is a great strategy....

Im afraid TEX is not cash flow positive, and CUE is still weeks off first oil from Maari, but it does have existing oil flows...

thats ok, we just have different criteria at this stage...
I got into TEXO for a punt on Catapult, and its been delayed like a savage just like everything else......
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks.. I thought TEX was cash flow positive from their AGM point:
"Ongoing production that more than covers our running costs".

That along with "Cash to meet its commitments" makes them look reasonably sound, at least at the moment. They are rather small though, compared to say PPP...

[bermuda]

Thanks.. I thought TEX was cash flow positive from their AGM point:
"Ongoing production that more than covers our running costs".

That along with "Cash to meet its commitments" makes them look reasonably sound, at least at the moment. They are rather small though, compared to say PPP...

Sehnsucht888,
You are quite right. An astute observation.
I don't know where Shrewdy came up with his observation.
It is a gamble ( the drilling bit ) but at this stage TEX has a lot going for it.
I keep on having this recurring thought that TEX goes over $1.00.
But I have had these thoughts before!

Still, I like the MD and what this company has to offer....as always DYOR...and the drill bit does the talking.

[impacman]

Just thought I would provide a bit more information around OSH I think the scoring for them earlier is fair although would probably increase the management score particularly given their track record in PNG.

I know there is an OSH thread but thought some of you who do not follow the company but are interested in this thread might find it interesting - if not my apologies in advance. I have used a number of sources to compile the following including OSH's own material which may explain the rosey tint of some bullet points (not that I think they are telling porky's).


Existing Operations
• Historically had oil operations/licenses in PNG and Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Recently sold MENA assets in wake of strategic review and decision to focus on PNG Oil and Gas (particularly LNG prospects).
• Existing oilfields are mature (decline rate of 15-20%) but with appropriate investment, expect to mitigate decline curve for 2-3 more years
• PNG production is highly profitable – in 1H08, cash Opex of US$10/bbl, realised oil price of US$118/bbl
• Exploration activities wound back from 2007 high levels, but material prospects still to be drilled in PNG
• PNG Govt has in essence recently sold their 17.6% stake in OSH to International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), an investment company wholly owned by the Abu Dhabi Government, via the acquisition of exchangeable bonds. The principal amount of the bonds is A$1.68 billion (or $8.55/share). This money will be used to fund the PNG Government’s equity share of capital costs for the PNG LNG Project.

Finance
• ~US$600 million in cash following receipt of MENA asset sale funds. No debt
• Refinancing of 5 year US$ facility recently finalised - very positive response from bank market with competitive offers for more than twice the amount sought. Facility size increased by US$50 million to US$450 million
• Pricing and facility terms more favourable than those on the facility it is replacing
• With cash and finance facility, liquidity is >US$1bn
• No oil hedging currently in place

LNG Project
• 2C resources of 9.3 tcf
• 6.3 mmtpa, 2 train LNG project
• The PNG LNG project ownership currently consists of ExxonMobil at 41.6%, Oil Search 34.1%, Santos 17.7%, and Nippon Oil (direct and via affiliates following purchase of AGL share) 5.4% while landowner interests hold the remaining 1.2%.
• ExxonMobil is the Project operator – Oil Search providing PNG experience
• Will commercialise ~550 mmboe of Oil Search’s 2C gas resources and add ~20 mmboe to annual net production, tripling current production
• FEED close end Q3 09 (approx) and FID Q4 09 (approx) – currently on target.
• Debt - OSH share of project finance ~US$3.2 billion (nominal)
• OSH’s equity contribution (nominal) expected to be ~US$1.3 billion funded from existing cash (~US$600m), corporate borrowing from refinancing (US$450m) and oil cash flows between 2009 – 2013 (operating cash flow in 1H08 was US$348m)

Sovereign Risk
• PNG GDP will more than double - “Affects economy of PNG and its balance of trade situation profoundly” (ACIL Tasman report , Feb 2008)
• Oil & Gas exports will increase 4 fold
• Huge cash flows to Government – national and provincial - and landowners through tax, royalties, levies and equity participation over 30 years
• Up to 7,500 jobs in initial phase, 20% by nationals; 850 full time positions, developing national workforce over time
• Almost half the recently finalised $450m (USD) facility provided without political risk insurance – strong endorsement for PNG
• The PNG Government has never defaulted on a scheduled debt repayment
• Since oil production began in 1992, Oil Projects have never lost/missed a shipment due to landowner or government intervention
• Oil Projects have lost less than 5 days of oil production due to landowner disruption in 16 years of operations
• Highly proactive management of landowner relations via a large, field-based community affairs team - strong local support – OSH recognised as very good social operator in PNG environment

Cheers,

I-man

[Shrewd Crude]

sorry to spoil the party sehnsucht, and Bermuda,
The last market announced quarterly cashflow report does not lie... but, in saying that... it always has been about Catapult...

for the period 1st July to 30th Sept...

receipts, and sales of 491k
less payments for exploration and evaluations of 761k (bigger than revenues)
less development costs 90k
less production costs of 85k
less admin costs of 337k
plus interest recieved (interest earned) 61k

equals net operating cashflow of negative 721k for the quarter...

cash for the quarter did rise with a placement...
oil prices have fallen...
The definition of positive cashflow can be taken, and meant in many different contexts...
im sure that the quote from the AGM is quite right sehnsucht,
covering all 'running costs'...
The words running cost is a very loose term that excludes the costs of delivering projects, and would exclude exploration, which are bigger than revenues...
We can only officially say cashflows are positive when cashflows are rising quarter on quarter... we have not seen this yet...

Awhile back, the Plunger offered me some really really good advice on this link, that I did not fully comprehend at the time... Over the years we have found some great looking asx oilers who explore and produce onshore USA but how many of those are cashflow positive...? I could not find one, and I can think of 20 asx oilers in this category off the top...
I had myu last two go's in that region on WHN and AKK, which have now flopped... I got lucky on both of them...

but theres too many variables, and even companies with high success rates can still struggle the never ending battle of cashflow positive...
I only came back to TEX for a mighty gamble on Catapult which would send it rocketing in a heartbeat... pity, like all other projects with delay after delay.....

... im over Onshore USA, and over Gulf of Mexico bar Catapult... hehehe....
The plunger offers advice which probably took years of experience to figure out... and we get it early on... dodging these bullets along the way with alittle luck makes us better and more profitable investors...
thanks for all advice...
look at it here...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6060&highlight=Kilgore

sorry to be off topic abit...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

sorry to spoil the party sehnsucht, and Bermuda,
The last market announced quarterly cashflow report does not lie... but, in saying that... it always has been about Catapult...

for the period 1st July to 30th Sept...

receipts, and sales of 491k
less payments for exploration and evaluations of 761k (bigger than revenues)
less development costs 90k
less production costs of 85k
less admin costs of 337k
plus interest recieved (interest earned) 61k

equals net operating cashflow of negative 721k for the quarter...

cash for the quarter did rise with a placement...
oil prices have fallen...
The definition of positive cashflow can be taken, and meant in many different contexts...
im sure that the quote from the AGM is quite right sehnsucht,
covering all 'running costs'...
The words running cost is a very loose term that excludes the costs of delivering projects, and would exclude exploration, which are bigger than revenues...
We can only officially say cashflows are positive when cashflows are rising quarter on quarter... we have not seen this yet...

Awhile back, the Plunger offered me some really really good advice on this link, that I did not fully comprehend at the time... Over the years we have found some great looking asx oilers who explore and produce onshore USA but how many of those are cashflow positive...? I could not find one, and I can think of 20 asx oilers in this category off the top...
I had myu last two go's in that region on WHN and AKK, which have now flopped... I got lucky on both of them...

but theres too many variables, and even companies with high success rates can still struggle the never ending battle of cashflow positive...
I only came back to TEX for a mighty gamble on Catapult which would send it rocketing in a heartbeat... pity, like all other projects with delay after delay.....

... im over Onshore USA, and over Gulf of Mexico bar Catapult... hehehe....
The plunger offers advice which probably took years of experience to figure out... and we get it early on... dodging these bullets along the way with alittle luck makes us better and more profitable investors...
thanks for all advice...
look at it here...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6060&highlight=Kilgore

sorry to be off topic abit...
:cool:
.^sc

Profitable ASX companies in the US?

PSA, STX, & AMU off the top of my head, have held all 3 previously

[tricha]

Hi fellow hunters.

I have done a simple valuation spreadsheet, its very interesting, I need P2 reserves for EXR Kent.?
Since last week EXR up form 4 to 6 cents, now close to cash backing, huge gain.

Also thanks Impacman for a review of OSH, name the management score a 1 or 2, your call, I am not in a position to judge.

Hey Shasta, BPT, why r they going back down ? They have great P2 reserves, can u quantify.

Leave no stone unturned.;)

[macduffy]

Hey Shasta, BPT, why r they going back down ? They have great P2 reserves, can u quantify. QUOTE

If I may comment.
I've held BPT for some years and its been a perennial poor performer SP-wise.
Bad news seems to always beat it down and good news rarely rates very much. Add to that their appalling timing in hedging/unhedging and their shotgun approach to exploration - Albania, Egypt, Africa etc and the market doesn't seem impressed.
Yesterday's news of another duster may be the more immediate reason.

[impacman]

Hi fellow hunters.

I have done a simple valuation spreadsheet, its very interesting, I need P2 reserves for EXR Kent.?
Since last week EXR up form 4 to 6 cents, now close to cash backing, huge gain.

Also thanks Impacman for a review of OSH, name the management score a 1 or 2, your call, I am not in a position to judge.

Hey Shasta, BPT, why r they going back down ? They have great P2 reserves, can u quantify.

Leave no stone unturned.;)


Hi Tricha. Looking at how other company's have been scored for management I would have to give OSH a 1.

Cheers.

[Shrewd Crude]

shasta-Profitable ASX companies in the US?

PSA, STX, & AMU off the top of my head, have held all 3 previously


great spotting all three of them at once... out of a gazillion asx oilers onshore US, you prob holed them all in one...
well, all cash flow positive but all debatable on some level weather it be performance, or its pure onshore US status...

look at Elk, it is just cashflow positive, and they hit the ground 'rock a gang bang' styled...
AOK 9 out of 11 sucesses...
I mean, what--> if they had 100% strike rate, they still fail...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Hi Tricha. Looking at how other company's have been scored for management I would have to give OSH a 1.

Cheers.

A one it is Impacman.:)

[tricha]

Hey Shasta, BPT, why r they going back down ? They have great P2 reserves, can u quantify. QUOTE

If I may comment.
I've held BPT for some years and its been a perennial poor performer SP-wise.
Bad news seems to always beat it down and good news rarely rates very much. Add to that their appalling timing in hedging/unhedging and their shotgun approach to exploration - Albania, Egypt, Africa etc and the market doesn't seem impressed.
Yesterday's news of another duster may be the more immediate reason.

Sounds like extremely bad management, also 145 million barrels of P2 reserves, why have they not been creaming it, bad management or something else :confused:

[shasta]

Sounds like extremely bad management, also 145 million barrels of P2 reserves, why have they not been creaming it, bad management or something else :confused:

Confirmation is on there homepage.

http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/

BPT management are what's holding the company back, bad investments, bad hedging, loss of focus, ill fated exploration targets, selling the family silver, you name it in the oil & gas game, Beach would have done it!.

They do however have alot of oil & gas & some greats projects.

Remember NZO/VPE's management weren't highly regarded until recently.

I wonder if BPT will sell it's 40% of Tipton West to JV partner, AOE?

Would enable them plenty of funds to snap up another oiler :confused:

[tricha]

Thanks all you fellow Hunters for contributing to this exercise :) and taking part in the poll. I was going to move to the next level of oilers, (cat 2), but at this stage I am staying focused on these ones, the oil price and market dictate that.

I did a simple calculation to value, what these cash cows should be roughly worth, on known P2 reserves @$30 a barrel profit. (The price of each share was taken last week.)
(please forgive me for terrible excel skills)

Beach comes out on top by a country mile for total value, while PPP comes out on top for cash value.

I keep asking the question, why is Beach so cheap?

I keep coming up with only one answer, dumb management :(


AWE cash and P2 = $4.69
BPT cash and P2 = $4.33
COE cash and P2 = $0.43
EXR cash and P2 = $0.07
NZO cash and P2 = $1.57
OSH cash and P2 = $13.88
PPP cash ans P2 = $0.41

p2 reserves Barrel $ Oil Value Shares Oil Value per share Cash VALUE PriceAWE69000000302070000000520000000 $ 3.98 $ 0.71 $ 4.69 $ 2.56 BPT1450000003043500000001030000000 $ 4.22 $ 0.11 $ 4.33 $ 0.83 COE11000003033000000252200000 $ 0.13 $ 0.30 $ 0.43 $ 0.27 EXR0300189000000 $ - $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.06 NZO1377000030413100000387200000 $ 1.07 $ 0.50 $ 1.57 $ 1.03 OSH50000000030150000000001120000000 $ 13.39 $ 0.49 $ 13.88 $ 4.37 PPP31000003093000000588600000 $ 0.16 $ 0.25 $ 0.41 $ 0.33

[tricha]

Its time to do a review, unfortunately we really need the yearly accounts out.
Till then we will update what we know and add\subtract contenders, all information most welcome.


The purpose of this exercise is to find safe value in the market, for 2009 in the oil sector. Disclosure - hold PPP and COE


Critera for Category #1

- 1.1 A company which is cash positive.
- 1.2 A company that is oil producing.
- 1.3 Low soverign risk. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)
- 1.4 Good management. 1 to 10 (10 = high risk)

I am going to start the WELL rolling with what I think is the top 5, please edify me on any mistakes and\or add missing information., there will be plenty and also put forward your own list and ranking if u care to. Then we shall do some polling.

1 - PPP ( Pan Pacific Petroleum) 28.5 cents

1.1 - 25 cents a share in the bank,
1.2 - 3.1 million barrels of oil in the ground.
1.3 - 1
1.4 - 1

2 - COE (Cooper Energy) 26.5 cents

1.1 30 cents a share in the bank,
own 25% of IPM
1.2 1.1 million barrels of oil.
1.3 2
1.4 2

3 - NZO ( NZ Oil and Gas ) $1.02

1.1 50 cents a share in the bank.
own 33% of Pike River
own 15% PPP
1.2 3.87 million barrels of Tui Oil.
1.3 1
1.4 1

4 - AWE (Australian Worldwide) $2.55

1.1 $1.00 a share in the bank.
1.2 62 million of 2p reserves
1.3 1
1.4 1

5 - OSH ( Oil Search ) $4.58

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4 3

6. EXR (Elixir) 4 cents, 189 million shares. ( Kent Brockman )

1.1 6.8 cents/share in the bank (there may be a liability in regard to an unpaid bill by a JV partner though)
1.2 Oil/Gas production from High Island field in GOM
1.3 1
1.4 6

7. BPT - Beach Petroleum 93.5c (Shasta)

1.1 - Net Cash/(Debt) position as @ 30/9/08 - ~$A150m
1.2 - FY08 revenues > $A500m, operating cashflows ~ $A200m (2P reserves 145 mmbo)
1.3 - 2, as all producing fields in Australia, exploration targets overseas though...
1.4 - 5, i'll list the reasons why...

- Divestment of BMG to reduce debt (Good)
- Hedging (Bad)
- Diversity Oil/Gas/CSG + Emission friendly investments, Mgmt on the ball (Good)
- SP performance & placements at discount to market value (Bad)

[shasta]

Its time to do a review, unfortunately we really need the yearly accounts out.
Till then we will update what we know and add\subtract contenders, all information most welcome.

The laggard still appears to be BPT!

Whilst the Tipton West sale removed 76mmboe from there reserves, the Cooper Basin contingent reserves (as confimed by Santos) went up by 262mmboe.

Weird really BPT gets the Tapis price, but disconnects badly from the PoO.

BPT has much higher production than most on the list, hmmmm :confused:

[Shrewd Crude]

Check out the NXS thread...
I dont think it fits all the criteria of CAT-1...
so wont post it here...
:cool:
.^sc

[macduffy]

The laggard still appears to be BPT!

Whilst the Tipton West sale removed 76mmboe from there reserves, the Cooper Basin contingent reserves (as confimed by Santos) went up by 262mmboe.

Weird really BPT gets the Tapis price, but disconnects badly from the PoO.

BPT has much higher production than most on the list, hmmmm :confused:

Sorry if I appear to harp on about BPT, but the 262 mmboe is a contingent resource at this stage, not classified as a reserve. If only!

:)

[shasta]

Sorry if I appear to harp on about BPT, but the 262 mmboe is a contingent resource at this stage, not classified as a reserve. If only!

:)

Thanks for the correction, you are quite right :o

BPT has gone from 145 - 76 (Tipton West) = ~69mmbo reserves*

* + Some more added in Cooper Basin & Egypt since then.

I guess the other oilers on the list would love to have those reserves!

[JBmurc]

Whats the view on BRU- market only values at 27m has 58mill in cash, sales of $787k
Canning basin focus looks real cheap to me at 17c

-Arenite withdrew takeover offer at $0.25

A cash cow with large exploration grounds low reserves

[macduffy]

Whats the view on BRU- market only values at 27m has 58mill in cash, sales of $787k
Canning basin focus looks real cheap to me at 17c

-Arenite withdrew takeover offer at $0.25

A cash cow with large exploration grounds low reserves

A couple of problems as far as I can see.

BRU's Canning Basin acreage is huge but drilling there has had minimal results to date. I think that ARQ - from which BRU evolved - produced from one or two very small reservoirs and that this is all there is to show at this stage.

The $58m was earmarked for exploration on a bigger scale. So BRU has the means to have a meaningful crack at the Canning but the cash is spoken for if the original plans proceed. The Arenite offer and subsequent withdrawal leave a bit of a question mark over proceedings.

Disc: Hold a small parcel, courtesy of AWE's takeover of ARQ and the subsequent scrip distribution to ARQ shareholders.

[macduffy]

* + Some more added in Cooper Basin & Egypt since then.
QUOTE.

But minus current production.

Yes, I know "Picky, picky!"

:)

[shasta]

* + Some more added in Cooper Basin & Egypt since then.
QUOTE.

But minus current production.

Yes, I know "Picky, picky!"

:)

As a BPT shareholder you're allowed to be optimistic :D

[Shrewd Crude]

JBM,
BRU is one of the best pure exploration oilers on the ASX, but nothing is going to happen for awhile because theres no imminent drilling...
:cool:
.^sc

[troyvdh]

...closed...why....

[Fushnchups]

Whats the view on BRU- market only values at 27m has 58mill in cash, sales of $787k
Canning basin focus looks real cheap to me at 17c

-Arenite withdrew takeover offer at $0.25

A cash cow with large exploration grounds low reserves

Eric's BRU have gone into their shell after their last disasterous outing and world economic collapse.

They will be running some 3D around Blina and Sundown so maybe that might find something? Any success here would probably benefit OBL better as they have nearby acreage and huge gearing. Seismic will also be run on the large Paradise prospect and if that leads to drilling then that will attract the traders. But I must say I've lost confidence in the ARQ team.

fc.

[macduffy]

Eric's BRU have gone into their shell after their last disasterous outing and world economic collapse.

They will be running some 3D around Blina and Sundown so maybe that might find something? Any success here would probably benefit OBL better as they have nearby acreage and huge gearing. Seismic will also be run on the large Paradise prospect and if that leads to drilling then that will attract the traders. But I must say I've lost confidence in the ARQ team.

fc.

Yes, the speed with which they initially surrendered to the Arenite offer doesn't inspire confidence.

Now that's fallen through they seem to be a bit lost for ideas.

[JBmurc]

Yeah BRU isn't liked by the market too bad they couldn't farm-in on some other W.A prospects STX,CVN,PCL's Baniyas comes to mind,but like want Macduffy was saying BRU need the 58mill cash if they keep to their Canning basin plan.
They do have AWE as their major holder so if BRU do find a major find AWE would have the cash to develop.
I can think of many worse investments in the jnr Oil&Gas sector than the high cash to value than is- BRU
high risk play with cash to keep afloat for some time if they have good farm-in JVP?

[Shrewd Crude]

JBM-
Yeah BRU isn't liked by the market too bad they couldn't farm-in on some other W.A prospects STX,CVN,PCL's Baniyas comes to mind,but like want Macduffy was saying BRU need the 58mill cash if they keep to their Canning basin plan.
They do have AWE as their major holder so if BRU do find a major find AWE would have the cash to develop.
I can think of many worse investments in the jnr Oil&Gas sector than the high cash to value than is- BRU
high risk play with cash to keep afloat for some time if they have good farm-in JVP?

your right JBM, BRU isnt really liked by the market...
and why would it be liked?, it is virtually a pure exploration oiler, with no drilling until 2010...
lots of potential in Canning basin...
heaps of cash which will support stable sp on a few dry wells, as late this year/early next I would expect sp to start running in lead up to exploration drilling next year...
not my sort of investment, but still one of the very best (near) pure exploration companies...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Come on Guys

I need Cat 1 oilers.

Three that spring to mind.

STO, TAP, ROC

The dynamics of ROC is changing, ( nothing stays the same and this can bring opportunity)

Is CUE now in the list Shrewd? It's getting close. HZN.

[shasta]

Its time to do a review, unfortunately we really need the yearly accounts out.
Till then we will update what we know and add\subtract contenders, all information most welcome.

Tap Oil

1. No debt, ~ $A52m cash (approx 1/3 market cap)

2. Producing > 1500bopde (ramping up to ~2000 soon?)

2a - Reserves > 5mmbo Oil & > 5mmboe in Gas

3. Sovereign risk - Medium/Low, mostly in Oz, but some far fetched projects with more risk

4. Management - Above Average (haven't addressed the SP decline & discrepancy to the valuations they quote in there presentations).

Have got some big JV partners, but time to get a bigger slice of the action

[Shrewd Crude]

sorry tricha,
yes CAT 1 oilers only...

CUE?
yep....
:cool:
.^sc